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TL Mafia XLVIII - Page 3

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kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 09 2011 05:08 GMT
#1971
On December 09 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 12:59 redFF wrote:
On December 09 2011 12:59 bumatlarge wrote:
On December 09 2011 12:56 vaderseven wrote:
The thing is annul is so surely town that a vote for him is a vote for town.

:/

Redff has a posting style justs really isn't helpful at times (the one liners) and his defense seems very much a scummy defense.


I think that is the fault of redff's nature, not your scum hunting ability. From what I've read, redff looks sincerely town, and his posts make my eyes hurt.

HAS PALMAR 100% PROVEN HE IS FLORIDIAN?

no


Why did you lie? Unless palmar's scumbuddy is a floridian as well, and assuming a town floridian would counterclaim, Palmar has proven he has such a power. This does not bode well for my conclusion of you being town. -_-

Palmar is at worst a null-read, and other people should be prioritized. Reading annul's fliter did not bear much fruit other then that people's personalities are starting to mesh together for me. It appears some people were day-vigged, do we have claims from that? I may have missed them skimming the thread.


There were two Townies killed by day vigs.

vaderseven shoots Soap

annul shoots prplhz

The corresponding explanations can be found very close to those posts.
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 09 2011 21:11 GMT
#2029
On December 10 2011 00:39 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 22:15 Palmar wrote:
Rad was completely fucking wrong, to the point of me thinking he might be mafia.

Only thing that makes him not be mafia is the fact that he tried to lynch annul last night.



I tried Palmar, I really tried. At some point I need to trust other players though, and vader yelling that annul is town(when he has more information than me) is something I cannot combat.

I would say there is a 90% chance that one of you or me is dead tonight, but if we both live we can work it out tomorrow. Also, what was I wrong about, prplhz? I agree, and I had already mentioned several times I thought he looked better. Had I been around I would have likely pushed toad to pick erandorr(which I think would also have ended in a townie death).

TruthBringer, Risen, hyshes, redFF, sandroba, Zephirdd.

I think Risen looks decent. Zephirdd I was pretty sure was town earlier, not so sure anymore. redFF could very well be town(despite my exasperation vote last night) and isn't worth looking at just yet. Hyshes and Truthbringer could very well be scum, though both seem genuine.

sandroba I think is almost surely scum at this point. He has done nothing all game. That is not a style problem, it is a motivation problem. Dollars to donuts he still has very little to say when he returns to the thread(with excuse in hand).

Kingjames is scummy by virtue of playing a different game than the rest of us. Building cases that are obviously not going to get followed up on, refusing to have a strong opinion on any players currently up for lynch etc.

If annul flips scum then Jackal and VE need to be looked at long and hard. Neither have been willing to vote annul all game.

If annul is town then we do actually have another medic. With a either a likely jailkeeper in the mix, or if annul/vader have a medic ability, Drazerk's claim becomes complete bs. No way we have a whole bunch of protective roles with only 2 scum KP.



I won't be on at all today until 1 hour before the daypost.

No one protect annul. There is a 0% chance of him dying tonight even if he is town, because it would help us immensely on day 3.

Watcher needs to be on vader tonight. Since he can use an ability tonight he is surely going to be targeted with a roleblock or KP.

If sandro is scum and mafia have a framer, they will likely target him tonight to have him flip green. Him or annul. If you are investigating, search someone else.

Medics on Palmar, myself, vader or toad. If you want to pick your own target that is fine too though, because we need a save to keep us running.

I would say do NOT protect drazerk. Either mafia kill him and clear things up for us, or they leave him alive to keep protecting. Both situations are a win for town.


I agree with the plans outlined in this post. I don't want to let this post go by without being discussed.

Don't protect annul. If mafia kill him tonight, then we will have gained a lot of information that they won't want us to have.

I don't think we should give the medics a list of players to protect though. Let them decide for themselves.

Finally, I'm going to respond to this point:
On December 10 2011 00:39 Radfield wrote:
Kingjames is scummy by virtue of playing a different game than the rest of us. Building cases that are obviously not going to get followed up on, refusing to have a strong opinion on any players currently up for lynch etc.


This is NOT true. I've been vocal and taken a stand AGAINST every potential lynch candidate since I DID NOT BELIEVE THAT THEY WERE MAFIA. Why should I waste my vote on a player who I don't think is guilty? Again I'm going to say:

Mafia NEED an excuse to vote.

STOP making it easy for them to lynch innocents. If a Townie is 1 or 2 votes short of being lynched, then the mafia will have a very hard time deciding whether they should be the ones to cast them or hope that we will supply those votes. Force them into making "analyses" and taking big risks. That's how we'll win.

Also, since I am not so heavily invested in making sure that we don't "waste a lynch" I am free to sift through the voting patterns to actually scum hunt. Even if my suspects are "obviously not going to get followed up on", I'll at least have planted a seed in the minds of the Town for future lynch votes and actions.

Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 09 2011 21:16 GMT
#2032
On December 10 2011 06:12 Toadesstern wrote:
because I felt we did not have a majority for Drazerk and Erandorr who were my primary targets at that point in time. At least I did not want to act selfish and just shoot who I thought was scummy without looking for recent accusations.
Therefore I looked up rads suspicious list and picked someone we both think is suspicious


But you implied that the majority of the town wanted prplhz to be shot. Two players is not the majority.
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 09 2011 21:37 GMT
#2038
On December 09 2011 10:19 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok to make this clear. I would LOVE to shoot drazerk or erandorr. To be honest mostly drazerk but I don't think that will prove a thing because the majority is not thinking so as well.
I'd say prplhz is the biggest consensus (looked that word up in a dictionary, sounds fancy). I think he's scummy as hell and a lot of people think so as well.

SOOO, shot that guy right in his face or die yourself.


Here you have a "biggest consensus".

On December 09 2011 21:44 Toadesstern wrote:
Third issue, about who I got to shoot. As mentioned I would have LOVED to shoot drazerk because I still don't believe a word he says and I'm calling his claim bullshit. However I looked up what other people I think are townie think about him (rad for example) and frankly I was the only one who wanted to see him dead. So I figured I need someone else. Having rads "probably scum" list already opened I checked who rad thinks might be suspicious and yes, the guy that is on both our lists without a '?' was prp so I shot him. That's the consensus I was talking about.


Here you just happend to have "rads 'probably scum' list already opened". So your "biggest consensus" turned out to be one other person.

On December 10 2011 06:25 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 10 2011 06:16 kingjames01 wrote:
On December 10 2011 06:12 Toadesstern wrote:
because I felt we did not have a majority for Drazerk and Erandorr who were my primary targets at that point in time. At least I did not want to act selfish and just shoot who I thought was scummy without looking for recent accusations.
Therefore I looked up rads suspicious list and picked someone we both think is suspicious


But you implied that the majority of the town wanted prplhz to be shot. Two players is not the majority.


I never said such a thing. I said I would have loved to shoot Drazerk or Erandorr but did not. I looked up a couple of posts.
I thought rad's list is the best thing to go by and just pick someone we both think is scummy. That's the consensus I've mentioned. I just looked in his list. Saw we got a bunch of people we think are scummy in common and picked the guy who had neither a '?' in my head nor in his list. That's the deal.
Sadly rad was not arround I would have loved talking about this and waited like 5 minutes but that's it.


Here you "looked up a couple of posts" and from these posts decided that "rad's list" was the "best thing to go by".

None of this makes any sense. What it seems like is that you chose a Townie and are now passing the blame off to someone else.
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 10 2011 02:06 GMT
#2067
I do condone the use of aggression as a tool to gain information though. However, I don't think that the players in this current game are doing it well...

Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 10 2011 03:43 GMT
#2069
I have a feeling that I'm going to die tonight. I'm one of the few players who is actually attempting to exert pressure back on the mafia rather than to fumble around pointing fingers.

If I do end up dying, please take a look at my posts and I wish you the best!
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 10 2011 07:00 GMT
#2098
On December 10 2011 14:24 Refallen wrote:
Yes he was attacked, message indicates clearly that I protected him from a hit.


hm... Palmar: can you confirm?
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 11 2011 21:31 GMT
#2268
I have to quickly run out and do some errands before the stores close. I have been working on a post for the past hour though and am not quite done with my conclusions. I'll post it when I get back. Just letting you know that I'm still in the game.
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 11 2011 22:19 GMT
#2284
k, I'm back now. Expect my post shortly once I have had time to fix it up and make some more remarks.
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 11 2011 23:13 GMT
#2315
Quick Question: Does a normal non-powered player know if he was visited or targetted for a roleblock?
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 11 2011 23:25 GMT
#2322
k, thanks guys.

Man, I hope this post was worth it. I'm just fixing the formatting now.

What I've done over the past while is to re-read the entire game and I've picked out the actions and events that each player has claimed. I took my findings and compiled them into one post. It was an attempt to find logical inconsistencies between player's actions and their claims.
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 11 2011 23:35 GMT
#2325
Toadesstern: while you're still here, can you tell me who you protected last night?
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 11 2011 23:50 GMT
#2333
Actions and events in TL Mafia XLVIII:

Day 1
18. Soap, Townie, apparently shot by vaderseven
24. Hier, Townie, lynched with 14 of 25 votes including an Anonymous vote

supersoft replaces StimilantE
vaderseven apparently shoots Soap
Palmar claims Floridian
vaderseven claims Jack
Palmar claims responsibility for Anonymous vote on Hier


Night 1
1. supersoft, Townie, killed
12. syllogism, Vigilante, killed

Drazerk claims Roleblock Immune Medic who is required to claim during Night 1


Day 2
2. prplhz, Townie, apparently shot by annul
No lynch

vaderseven claims JOAT
redFF claims to have been roleblocked
annul claims to have been shot
annul claims to have been saved by a medic
Erandorr claims to have been roleblocked
Drazerk claims to have protected vaderseven during Night 1
Palmar claims responsibility for the Anonymous vote on annul
annul clarifies claim about medic save
bumatlarge replaces Erandorr
annul claims JOAT
annul apparently shoots prplhz
annul claims he took no actions during Night 1
xsksc replaces Corrupt


Night 2
4. Radfield, Townie, killed


Day 3
Zephirdd claims Parity Cop
Refallen claims Medic
Refallen claims that he saved Palmar from a hit during Night 2
Palmar claims that he was hit during Night 2
Drazerk claims that he was visited during Night 2
Toadesstern claims to be a Medic and that he saved annul during Night 1
Drazerk claims to have been roleblocked during Night 2
Toadesstern claims to have protected vaderseven during Night 2


Palmar's claimed actions and results as Floridian
Day 1: Votes for Hier - lynched and flipped Vanilla Town
Day 2: Votes for annul - No lynch
Day 3: I assume that he voted for annul but the Anonymous vote has not been officially claimed


Drazerk's claimed actions and results as Roleblock Immune Medic
Night 1: Protects vaderseven
Night 2: Roleblocked


vaderseven's claimed actions and results as Jack of All Trades
Day 1: Shoot Soap - Vanilla Town
Night 1: None?
Day 2: None?
Night 2: None
Day 3: ???


annul's claimed actions and results as Jack of All Trades
Day 1: None
Night 1: None
Day 2: annul shoots prplhz - Vanilla Town
Night 2: ???
Day 3: ???


Zephirdd's claimed actions and results as Parity Cop
Night 1: Check Palmar - No Result
Night 2: Check Radfield - Same


Refallen's claimed actions and results as Medic
Night 1: Protect drazerk
Night 2: Protect Palmar - Success


Toadesstern's claimed actions and results as Medic
Night 1: Protect annul - Success
Night 2: Protect vaderseven
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 12 2011 00:00 GMT
#2338
My apologies! I'll fix it. I also have some working theories that I'm typing up but I didn't want to announce my post and then make you wait. For now, that post can be a resource which I will maintain. Please feel free to fill in any gaps or mention them as you have done.
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 12 2011 00:08 GMT
#2340
On December 12 2011 09:03 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 12 2011 09:00 kingjames01 wrote:
My apologies! I'll fix it. I also have some working theories that I'm typing up but I didn't want to announce my post and then make you wait. For now, that post can be a resource which I will maintain. Please feel free to fill in any gaps or mention them as you have done.


V7's action n1 : None. He can only use one action per cyle. He used his dayvig day1 (we all saw that) and therefore he was not able to use a night power according to his claim.

Annuls Action n2: None. Pretty much the same as V7. He shot d2 => no n2 action he could have done.


I didn't put those in since we only have their word for how their powers actually work.

Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 12 2011 00:10 GMT
#2341
Actions and events in TL Mafia XLVIII:

Day 1
18. Soap, Townie, apparently shot by vaderseven
24. Hier, Townie, lynched with 14 of 25 votes including an Anonymous vote

supersoft replaces StimilantE
vaderseven apparently shoots Soap
Palmar claims Floridian
vaderseven claims Jack
Palmar claims responsibility for Anonymous vote on Hier


Night 1
1. supersoft, Townie, killed
12. syllogism, Vigilante, killed

Drazerk claims Roleblock Immune Medic who is required to claim during Night 1


Day 2
2. prplhz, Townie, apparently shot by annul
No lynch

vaderseven claims JOAT
redFF claims to have been roleblocked
annul claims to have been shot
annul claims to have been saved by a medic
Erandorr claims to have been roleblocked
Drazerk claims to have protected vaderseven during Night 1
Palmar claims responsibility for the Anonymous vote on annul
annul clarifies claim about medic save
bumatlarge replaces Erandorr
annul claims JOAT
annul apparently shoots prplhz
annul claims he took no actions during Night 1
xsksc replaces Corrupt


Night 2
4. Radfield, Townie, killed


Day 3
Zephirdd claims Parity Cop
Refallen claims Medic
Refallen claims that he saved Palmar from a hit during Night 2
Palmar claims that he was hit during Night 2
Drazerk claims that he was visited during Night 2
redFF claims to have been roleblocked during Night 2
Toadesstern claims to be a Medic and that he saved annul during Night 1
Drazerk claims to have been roleblocked during Night 2
Toadesstern claims to have protected vaderseven during Night 2
Drazerk attempts to explain his lie


Palmar's claimed actions and results as Floridian
Day 1: Votes for Hier - lynched and flipped Vanilla Town
Day 2: Votes for annul - No lynch
Day 3: I assume that he voted for annul but the Anonymous vote has not been officially claimed


Drazerk's claimed actions and results as Roleblock Immune Medic
Night 1: Protects vaderseven
Night 2: Roleblocked


vaderseven's claimed actions and results as Jack of All Trades
Day 1: Shoot Soap - Vanilla Town
Night 1: I assume that he did not take an action since it was claimed that he cannot use more than 1 action in a day/night cycle
Day 2: ???
Night 2: None
Day 3: ???


annul's claimed actions and results as Jack of All Trades
Day 1: None
Night 1: None
Day 2: annul shoots prplhz - Vanilla Town
Night 2: I assume that he did not take an action since it was claimed that he cannot use more than 1 action in a day/night cycle
Day 3: ???


Zephirdd's claimed actions and results as Parity Cop
Night 1: Check Palmar - No Result
Night 2: Check Radfield - Same


Refallen's claimed actions and results as Medic
Night 1: Protect drazerk
Night 2: Protect Palmar - Success


Toadesstern's claimed actions and results as Medic
Night 1: Protect annul - Success
Night 2: Protect vaderseven

Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 12 2011 00:25 GMT
#2345
I think it is a pretty safe assumption that mafia has at least 2 Night kills as evidenced by supersoft and syllogism's death during Night 1.

However, it seems as though it might also be AT MOST 2 since there was a lack of deaths last night. Doesn't that seem strange? Usually the number of kills is equal to the number of mafia divided by two... Why don't they have 3 kills?

Consider this line of reasoning:
There's been a lot of talk about how Palmar's Floridian role MUST be pro-town. But why should that be so? How good is that assumption?

If the Floridian is actually a mafia role in this game and he is given an extra vote, then that would make up for the fact that they seem to be 1 kill power short. The entire mafia team might be basing their hopes and efforts in establishing Palmar as a figurehead so that we follow him around to our deaths.

So where did the extra kill power go last night? They DID NOT USE IT (or double stacked Radfield).

Why would they do this? What would they accomplish? Ah... Well, let's see what actually did take place assuming Palmar is mafia.

Zephirdd roleclaims Parity Cop and pretends to confirm Palmar. Refallen roleclaims Medic and now the kill power has been accounted for.

Interesting?
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 12 2011 00:41 GMT
#2347
On December 12 2011 09:18 Zephirdd wrote:
So kingjames, I assume your best scum read is Refallen right now.

However, no way in hell we are lynching him until the deadline, so the question is: would you lynch redFF or annul?


If I was willing to vote for either player what would happen?

If I voted for redFF that would make 9 votes.

If I voted for annul that would only make 8. If you switched it would still only be 9 votes.

To the other players:
Is anyone available out there that would cast the 10th vote?

Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 12 2011 00:51 GMT
#2352
On December 12 2011 09:49 Zephirdd wrote:
What would occur if there was a tie on votes ie. 10 vs 10?


Good question, I'd like to know too.

My guess is the first player to receive 10 votes would get lynched.
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
kingjames01
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada1603 Posts
December 12 2011 01:41 GMT
#2359
They're most likely not both mafia. There wouldn't be as many votes on them as there are.

If both of them were mafia, wouldn't we would have been discussing another candidate today?
Who would sup with the mighty, must walk the path of daggers.
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