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On December 01 2011 05:08 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
So now I'm responsible for a massive voteswitch that happened while I was afk? That seems like pretty reasonable logic. And now you're instructing the same sheep you accuse me of being to follow your orders and waste a bullet on me; if you want people making reasoned decisions instead of just following whoever can post the biggest wall of text, you need to make with a reason. It's not pro-town to go declaring mafia reads based on single circumstances (unfortunate as they were) and then plug your ears to counter arguments.
now since you're trying to put words in your mouth, I'm even more confident.
Never once did I say you were responsible for the vote switch, but thanks for trying to put words in my mouth.
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On December 01 2011 05:10 annul wrote:
wow WBG
that is some epic analysis on prplhz.
yeah prplhz is an ez lynch tomorrow for sure.
I should've pushed him just as he posted his campaign.. it was full of lies and contributing without contributing post..
I am with You on that.
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On December 01 2011 05:10 annul wrote:
wow WBG
that is some epic analysis on prplhz.
yeah prplhz is an ez lynch tomorrow for sure.
I second this. That analysis is solid. Makes me wish I hadn't been an idiot and been on Palmar.
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On December 01 2011 05:10 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2011 05:08 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
So now I'm responsible for a massive voteswitch that happened while I was afk? That seems like pretty reasonable logic. And now you're instructing the same sheep you accuse me of being to follow your orders and waste a bullet on me; if you want people making reasoned decisions instead of just following whoever can post the biggest wall of text, you need to make with a reason. It's not pro-town to go declaring mafia reads based on single circumstances (unfortunate as they were) and then plug your ears to counter arguments. now since you're trying to put words in your mouth, I'm even more confident. Never once did I say you were responsible for the vote switch, but thanks for trying to put words in my mouth.
*my
at any rate you're the last person on the scumlist so it's not like you're guaranteed to die.
If there's 18 players who fit the bill of being scum I'd rather kill them all than try to weed out at least the 3 who are guaranteed town.
Just purely on statistics if you have 18 players and you guarantee 15 scum to be in there it's best if you just kill them all instead of bothering to try and get the 3 who are town out. 17% chance t o be town on pure statistics and you have to deal with accepting that you went with suboptimal play to call you town?
I'd rather just leave you on the list tbh.
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On December 01 2011 04:58 wherebugsgo wrote:
you're also one of the only players in the game to have voted both me and Palmar.
yeah, that's unlucky if you're town, but honestly if you hadn't sheeped and if scum hadn't done that massive voteswitch you wouldn't be on that list.
I'm arguing that I don't belong on a list of probable scum, your counter argument is that I wouldn't be in my position if the mafia hadn't mass switched. Where am I putting words in your mouth?
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On December 01 2011 05:16 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2011 05:10 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 01 2011 05:08 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
So now I'm responsible for a massive voteswitch that happened while I was afk? That seems like pretty reasonable logic. And now you're instructing the same sheep you accuse me of being to follow your orders and waste a bullet on me; if you want people making reasoned decisions instead of just following whoever can post the biggest wall of text, you need to make with a reason. It's not pro-town to go declaring mafia reads based on single circumstances (unfortunate as they were) and then plug your ears to counter arguments. now since you're trying to put words in your mouth, I'm even more confident. Never once did I say you were responsible for the vote switch, but thanks for trying to put words in my mouth. *my at any rate you're the last person on the scumlist so it's not like you're guaranteed to die. If there's 18 players who fit the bill of being scum I'd rather kill them all than try to weed out at least the 3 who are guaranteed town. Just purely on statistics if you have 18 players and you guarantee 15 scum to be in there it's best if you just kill them all instead of bothering to try and get the 3 who are town out. 17% chance t o be town on pure statistics and you have to deal with accepting that you went with suboptimal play to call you town? I'd rather just leave you on the list tbh.
also in those types of scenarios in my experience scum always gets the upper hand.
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WBG, I'll read your case on prplz tomorrow because I'll be off for the night soon. Could you have a look at this?
On December 01 2011 04:16 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2011 03:22 wherebugsgo wrote:
Now he's even more likely to be scum because the people voting him were nearly all town Show nested quote +prplhz: 16
bumatlarge
sinani206
Serejai
layabout
Risen
Hassybaby
Deconduo
Coagulation
supersoft
Palmar (X 3)
risk.nuke
hyshes
redFF
wherebugsgo Risen and Palmar are confirmed, I asked you about Supersoft already. Coagulation and Serejai you want dead. Are the rest town according to you?
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On December 01 2011 05:16 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2011 05:10 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 01 2011 05:08 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
So now I'm responsible for a massive voteswitch that happened while I was afk? That seems like pretty reasonable logic. And now you're instructing the same sheep you accuse me of being to follow your orders and waste a bullet on me; if you want people making reasoned decisions instead of just following whoever can post the biggest wall of text, you need to make with a reason. It's not pro-town to go declaring mafia reads based on single circumstances (unfortunate as they were) and then plug your ears to counter arguments. now since you're trying to put words in your mouth, I'm even more confident. Never once did I say you were responsible for the vote switch, but thanks for trying to put words in my mouth. *my at any rate you're the last person on the scumlist so it's not like you're guaranteed to die. If there's 18 players who fit the bill of being scum I'd rather kill them all than try to weed out at least the 3 who are guaranteed town. Just purely on statistics if you have 18 players and you guarantee 15 scum to be in there it's best if you just kill them all instead of bothering to try and get the 3 who are town out. 17% chance t o be town on pure statistics and you have to deal with accepting that you went with suboptimal play to call you town? I'd rather just leave you on the list tbh.
Now you're guaranteeing 15 scum kills from your list, but can't bother to make cases to back up all the listed players? I think even the sheep are going to need better than just the bald statement that you've identified nearly the entire mafia population with 83% certainty. As I posted before, I think plenty of your reads are solid, but just throwing more people on the heap on a hunch is not serving our purposes here.
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On December 01 2011 05:17 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2011 04:58 wherebugsgo wrote:
you're also one of the only players in the game to have voted both me and Palmar.
yeah, that's unlucky if you're town, but honestly if you hadn't sheeped and if scum hadn't done that massive voteswitch you wouldn't be on that list. I'm arguing that I don't belong on a list of probable scum, your counter argument is that I wouldn't be in my position if the mafia hadn't mass switched. Where am I putting words in your mouth?
Right here:
So now I'm responsible for a massive voteswitch that happened while I was afk?
I never called you responsible for it, yet you are implicating that I did.
Now you try to wiggle away from that...
There is nothing in your filter that can give us any indication of what your alignment is.
In my position, you would do exactly the same thing.
Nothing you have done all game tells me you are town. Thus, if you're otherwise a null read to me, you voted two townies yesterday (who you shouldn't have been voting if you were reading) and you were at least partially responsible for the town mayor getting lynched, you should be on that list.
Very few players yesterday played like you did. Almost none, in fact. The players who did actually play like you (or generally, worse than you) are on that list.
You have a good point in that I am putting you on that list primarily based on voting behavior. I cannot analyze 20 players at once, but nothing you have done all game suggests to me that you are town.
The manner of your defense is not town-like to me either, so I'm not about to remove you from that list any time soon either.
If you want to be useful to town, at least find scum for us.
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I want to join Umlaut in this. At least if you are gonna accuse so many people you have to exhibit your cases.
Inb4 I flip town.
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On December 01 2011 05:22 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2011 05:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 01 2011 05:10 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 01 2011 05:08 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
So now I'm responsible for a massive voteswitch that happened while I was afk? That seems like pretty reasonable logic. And now you're instructing the same sheep you accuse me of being to follow your orders and waste a bullet on me; if you want people making reasoned decisions instead of just following whoever can post the biggest wall of text, you need to make with a reason. It's not pro-town to go declaring mafia reads based on single circumstances (unfortunate as they were) and then plug your ears to counter arguments. now since you're trying to put words in your mouth, I'm even more confident. Never once did I say you were responsible for the vote switch, but thanks for trying to put words in my mouth. *my at any rate you're the last person on the scumlist so it's not like you're guaranteed to die. If there's 18 players who fit the bill of being scum I'd rather kill them all than try to weed out at least the 3 who are guaranteed town. Just purely on statistics if you have 18 players and you guarantee 15 scum to be in there it's best if you just kill them all instead of bothering to try and get the 3 who are town out. 17% chance t o be town on pure statistics and you have to deal with accepting that you went with suboptimal play to call you town? I'd rather just leave you on the list tbh. Now you're guaranteeing 15 scum kills from your list, but can't bother to make cases to back up all the listed players? I think even the sheep are going to need better than just the bald statement that you've identified nearly the entire mafia population with 83% certainty. As I posted before, I think plenty of your reads are solid, but just throwing more people on the heap on a hunch is not serving our purposes here.
Again you put words in my mouth.
Take a look at the way I worded it.
Just purely on statistics if you have 18 players and you guarantee 15 scum to be in there it's best if you just kill them all instead of bothering to try and get the 3 who are town out. 17% chance t o be town on pure statistics and you have to deal with accepting that you went with suboptimal play to call you town?
IF IF IF
I don't know that we have 15 scum in that list of 18. However, other than those 18 I don't find anyone to be scummy.
As I said repeatedly earlier, it's still early in the game and we're not guaranteed all 15 scum yet.
Based on statistics alone though, the great majority of my list should actually be scum. Thus, it's worth it to simply kill them all.
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On December 01 2011 05:20 xtfftc wrote:WBG, I'll read your case on prplz tomorrow because I'll be off for the night soon. Could you have a look at this? Show nested quote +On December 01 2011 04:16 xtfftc wrote:On December 01 2011 03:22 wherebugsgo wrote:
Now he's even more likely to be scum because the people voting him were nearly all town prplhz: 16
bumatlarge
sinani206
Serejai
layabout
Risen
Hassybaby
Deconduo
Coagulation
supersoft
Palmar (X 3)
risk.nuke
hyshes
redFF
wherebugsgo Risen and Palmar are confirmed, I asked you about Supersoft already. Coagulation and Serejai you want dead. Are the rest town according to you?
yes, the rest are town IMO.
decon, redFF, and bumatlarge have potential to flip scum but they're all below 20% to me at this point.
Like, it's too early to for sure say they are definitely not scum but I am very confident all of those players other than Coag and serejai are town.
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WBG, Errandor is scum. Preeeety sure.
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United Kingdom31255 Posts
Since the last mention of it was around 100 pages ago and it was actually shot down really quickly.
we have a clue from Kitamens's death regarding prplhz
before everything went under a red haze of pain
Prplhz's name is supposed to mean purple haze. Red is a primary colour in the making of purple in art leading us to prplhz
On top of WBG's analysis if Prplhz survives the night we should lynch him.
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On December 01 2011 05:34 sandroba wrote:
WBG, Errandor is scum. Preeeety sure.
yeah I think so too.
He had a shitty day 1 mayor platform and hasn't done anything since. It's like his play from XLIV where he just lurked and no one noticed him rofl.
I think Drazerk has a dec chance at flipping town...idk. But I'll add Erandorr to the list.
Kill These Please
Serejai
Sprungjeezy
Kenpachi
vaderseven
Ciryandor
prplhz
Coagulation (meta)
Erandorr
Mattchew
Steveling
Soap
AmericanUmlaut
Drazerk
Lemonwalrus (meta)
If anyone finds AmericanUmlaut townlike please tell me.
The most damning evidence against him is that he was gone for four real time days, during which he ninja voted but didn't explain in the thread why he voted me or Palmar.
Also, what's odd is that day 1 he called both Palmar and myself town.
On November 25 2011 19:45 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
WBG: your plan actually sounds pretty reasonable to me, though I'd love to hear criticism from anyone who's got a better feel for how this will play out than I do.
Like I said above, I agree with your reads on YM and prplhz. I question the logic of reading someone who posts and then lurks, though, given that it's Thanksgiving weekend. Blind-Rawr's account info says he's in India, so he might not have that excuse, but since Erandorr's location is blank, I'd at least still consider him a neutral read for the time being.
Second to last post day 1. He agreed with my read on prplhz.
NO POSTS DAY 2
On November 30 2011 20:34 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
Holy shit did I pick a bad time to host Thanksgiving, have my father over from the States and flood my apartment. I'm trying to catch up on the backstory I missed... So, we've got mass vote switching lured by an edited vote post (nicely done, if that was intentional), we've lynched our townie mayor and half the mafia have basically outed themselves?
Is this how this game typically plays out?
WBG, what's the deal with me showing up in your scum list? Obviously voting Palmar was a mistake, but it was an honest one. Whether my vote for you was a mistake or not has yet to be established, though I'm leaning that direction since your recent posts certainly feel pro-town to me, but declaring me "useless" and therefore worth offing doesn't sit right with me as a reasonable argument.
Other than myself, I think, vaderseven and prplhz were already pretty cut and dry even before, and Ciryandor explicitly outed himself, so they're obvious cases. The quick vote switchers are also pretty obvious; I'd hope you'd not assume I'm part of their little organization just because I made one vote based on incomplete information that they also made later, all at once, based on total information.
First post after day 1, halfway through n1.
He ninja voted during day 2 and never explained it. Now he's surprised he's in the scumlist after changing his opinion about Palmar and myself without explaining it?
Yeah right, any townie would at least post a one or two line explanation without ninja voting.
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K people who are trying to be helpful. Try matching the clues to any of our suspects =)
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On December 01 2011 05:40 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2011 05:34 sandroba wrote:
WBG, Errandor is scum. Preeeety sure. yeah I think so too. He had a shitty day 1 mayor platform and hasn't done anything since. It's like his play from XLIV where he just lurked and no one noticed him rofl. I think Drazerk has a dec chance at flipping town...idk. But I'll add Erandorr to the list. Kill These Please
Serejai
Sprungjeezy
Kenpachi
vaderseven
Ciryandor
prplhz
Coagulation (meta)
Erandorr
Mattchew
Steveling
Soap
AmericanUmlaut
Drazerk
Lemonwalrus (meta)
what do you mean by meta?
and why some bold some not?
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Anyway priority should be Cyriandor>kenpachi>all fuckers that last minute switched>other scummy fuckers.
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On December 01 2011 05:38 Drazerk wrote:Since the last mention of it was around 100 pages ago and it was actually shot down really quickly. we have a clue from Kitamens's death regarding prplhz Prplhz's name is supposed to mean purple haze. Red is a primary colour in the making of purple in art leading us to prplhz On top of WBG's analysis if Prplhz survives the night we should lynch him.
You're grasping at straws mate.
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On December 01 2011 05:38 Drazerk wrote:Since the last mention of it was around 100 pages ago and it was actually shot down really quickly. we have a clue from Kitamens's death regarding prplhz Prplhz's name is supposed to mean purple haze. Red is a primary colour in the making of purple in art leading us to prplhz On top of WBG's analysis if Prplhz survives the night we should lynch him.
this is subtle enough to actually be a clue. + prplhz has no profile.
This + WBG analysis(which I love) and prplhz's reactions so far to a lesser extent makes me think he is scum.
If a vigi has a doubt on who to shot, shot him. Or just leave him alive, we'll take care of him tomorrow via lynch probably.
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EPT
