EPTFrom an optimization stand point regarding the setup I guarantee you town's chances are higher if we prolong the game by one night.
Team Melee Mini Mafia - Couples Therapy - Page 16
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
From an optimization stand point regarding the setup I guarantee you town's chances are higher if we prolong the game by one night. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On November 04 2011 03:49 sandroba wrote: That's why I waited until now to sugest this. We already know who pushed for what day one and got a bunch of reactions. Going ahead with the lynch with the info we have right now has a low chance of hitting scum imo. This is only anti-town if the team we end up lynching amongst those that have a chance of getting lynched based on this day one (your team, team edward and team viking) end up being scum. If you think the odds of us hitting scum today are favorable, then go ahead and consider this anti-town. I don't and I will do my part to ensure we no lynch today, unless someone comes up if a more convincing case. Your case on prpl is no where near good enough and you know it. You'd rather lynch him on this flimsy evidence? I'd rather do anything but shut down the discussion 8+ hours before the day ends. If you think there isn't a good enough case against anyone then take the initiative and find one. Do not sit down and say "huh, I don't like any of the cases so far, I guess I'll give up the town's number one advantage, and sit here and twiddle my thumbs". I'll even go as far as to say that I'd be happy to be the one lynched, as long as there was productive discussion around it and a flip at the end of the day, you know, something to base things of when you try to analyze tomorrow? Where is this passive attitude coming from sandroba? You just said there are a bunch of reactions, well take them and make a case! Do something other than sit down and no-lynch! Who do you think is scum? Why? Why are you not making a concerted push to get them lynched? | ||
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Mislynch 5v2 Mislynch 3v2 LYLO 7v2 No lynch 6v2 No lynch 5v2 Mislynch 3v2 LYLO Essentially we are trading 1 mislynch for 48 hours of disccusion, during which nobody is threatened because they know there won't be a lynch. The odds of hitting scum statistically are unfavorable every day. That doesn't mean you don't try. I will do my part to ensure we no lynch today, unless someone comes up if a more convincing case Or you could try to come up with a more convincing case yourself. We agree the prpl one is bad, how about the other 6 teams? | ||
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
| ||
|
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On November 04 2011 03:55 sandroba wrote: You are wrong GM, sorry. Lynching is only good for town when it hits scum. The process is good for town regardless, but going ahead with it is only favorable depending on results. From an optimization stand point regarding the setup I guarantee you town's chances are higher if we prolong the game by one night. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Lynching makes people take stances and react, things like last minute vote switches, counter bandwagons, ect can *only* be seen with a lynch, and usually in the last 2 or so hours of the lynch. My brain hurts. Seriously. You are giving the mafia team the momentum, you are letting them pick who dies. I might be more ok with this, had you pulled it out 1 hour before the lynch with the main targets looking like townies, but not only is it bad, but your timing is atrocious. You've posted this before any cases have solidified or any wagons really formed, you've basically killed any wagons scum might try to start and sabotaged the will of any townies to do analysis because "a no lynch is better". Would you be arguing this if the setup were 7 vts vs 2 reds? | ||
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
| ||
|
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On November 04 2011 03:59 sandroba wrote: You got wrapped around your head that there is only one way to play all mafia games. You don't even consider the setup when deciding which is the best course of action and this is proven by you not even knowing how many players were in this game to start with. This setup is extremelly unforgiving for mislynches and town benefits from more night actions. All possible roles have a chance of producing good info. Sit back and think for a bit instead of preaching general advice. I refuse to play follow the blue. That's how towns go to hell in a handbasket, when scum decide to fake claim. If we have blues great, but I'm going to work on the assumption that we have one blue who is going to get shot night 1, because that's the only way to make sure we stand a chance. Remember the more townies we lose, the easier it is for scum to control the lynch. | ||
|
redFF
United States3910 Posts
we are lynching today lol | ||
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
On November 04 2011 03:59 GMarshal wrote: Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Lynching makes people take stances and react, things like last minute vote switches, counter bandwagons, ect can *only* be seen with a lynch, and usually in the last 2 or so hours of the lynch. My brain hurts. Seriously. You are giving the mafia team the momentum, you are letting them pick who dies. I might be more ok with this, had you pulled it out 1 hour before the lynch with the main targets looking like townies, but not only is it bad, but your timing is atrocious. You've posted this before any cases have solidified or any wagons really formed, you've basically killed any wagons scum might try to start and sabotaged the will of any townies to do analysis because "a no lynch is better". Would you be arguing this if the setup were 7 vts vs 2 reds? Probably not right now, but I could try to do it either way if I didn't like the leading candidate as scum. | ||
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Sandro, how can you bail out of scum-hunting at this point in the day? + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2011 21:40 GMarshal wrote: @Kita Woo! Lets talk about the setup and our partners, which helps us find scum... how again? Yay! Relevance! Not Once again, why are we discussing the interactions inside the team? How does this help us locate scum or do anything of relevance? How does this lead to meaningful discussion? Once again, lets have a conversation about... teams? How is that helpful? Why is he obliging this tangent? This is the derailment I'm talking about, he has all these posts about worthless things, that want to go off topic for no apparent reason. I will admit, I like his last few posts a lot better though. I think you are being deliberatly daft here supersoft. Use your brain, why is Chezinu a great asset to a scum team? Because half the people don't even read his posts because they are nonsense. Smart scum could achieve a similar effect through atrocious use of spelling and grammar. As a rule townies want to be transparent, while scum want to muddle the waters. GMan, you don't get off that easy though. You built a case on Prp, then wibble-wobbled at the end of it. Your next post basically says the same thing: he might be scum, but he might not. Yet, you're vote remains squarely on Team Viking(Prp & Forumite). Do you think Team Viking is worthy of lynching right now? On November 03 2011 10:19 sandroba wrote: I don't really like your jailer usage GM. The chance of making a save or roleblocking a useful role is the same wether you "aim" it at scum or not. Only difference is that it saves a lot of trouble for scum in choosing their shots since they wouldn't bother shooting people that are considered scummy overall, since they are more easily pushed as a lynch. If there is a jailer he should definetely aim for a save as this makes things overall harder for scum. The chance of there being a doc or a jailer is 5/6, while having a doc is only 1/2. Having both aiming for a save is the best in making they choose non-optimal shots. I agree with this, but NOT for the reasons Sandro posted. The reason we can't use the jailkeeper offensively is because mafia can choose which team shoots, so they will automatically make the more pro-town team fire the gun. That means the shooter will basically never be roleblocked. | ||
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On November 04 2011 04:02 GMarshal wrote: I refuse to play follow the blue. That's how towns go to hell in a handbasket, when scum decide to fake claim. If we have blues great, but I'm going to work on the assumption that we have one blue who is going to get shot night 1, because that's the only way to make sure we stand a chance. Remember the more townies we lose, the easier it is for scum to control the lynch. Not to mention that the only real 'followable' blue we may have is a parity cop. No-lynching as policy only loses us townies, while gaining us potential parity cop nights. | ||
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
 (oh the joys of Fridays)Anyway, let's get into this. First of all, I like some of the ideas that have been put forth since I've been gone. I also like some of the reactions, since they obviously indicate a decent level of involvement in this game. However, I still think the hyshes/chaoser is a good bet for a lynch today, and I'll elaborate on this in a bit. First, some background: On November 04 2011 03:55 sandroba wrote: You are wrong GM, sorry. Lynching is only good for town when it hits scum. The process is good for town regardless, but going ahead with it is only favorable depending on results. From an optimization stand point regarding the setup I guarantee you town's chances are higher if we prolong the game by one night. I think sandro is right that lynching is only good if it hits scum (for really obvious reasons). As Kita pointed out, we have this: On November 04 2011 03:59 kitaman27 wrote: 7v2 Mislynch 5v2 Mislynch 3v2 LYLO 7v2 No lynch 6v2 No lynch 5v2 Mislynch 3v2 LYLO Essentially we are trading 1 mislynch for 48 hours of disccusion, during which nobody is threatened because they know there won't be a lynch. The odds of hitting scum statistically are unfavorable every day. That doesn't mean you don't try. Or you could try to come up with a more convincing case yourself. We agree the prpl one is bad, how about the other 6 teams? HOWEVER, I highly disagree with this: On November 04 2011 03:55 sandroba wrote: I will do my part to ensure we no lynch today, unless someone comes up if a more convincing case Sandro why are you so passive? You should be working toward getting a lynch, not ensuring that we no-lynch. We have to lynch two scum at some point. Sitting around and advocating a no-lynch takes pressure off scum, because while a no-lynch guarantees that town will not get lynched, it guarantees scum won't either! What do scum have to fear if they know that the town is not seeking a lynch today? It's not beneficial for town at all unless we have lynch candidates we're discussing. The no-lynch should be employed, in my opinion, by putting votes on a suspicious person, and then removing them when it's clear that they have reacted in a townie manner under that pressure. So far, hyshes and chaoser are under very little pressure. I voted for them, and I think one other team did. When chaoser came in, he didn't say very many things to establish he is town. He attempted to defend his partner but kinda failed and got really mad: On November 04 2011 03:10 chaoser wrote: Thanks for summarizing my stance and posting nothing here. Also, are you trying to say that you know what hyshes' motive are in posting that? I didn't realize you were psychic. How do you know for a fact that hyshe wasn't trying to draw mafia out? How do you know he's NOT bad at making plans? How do you know what he was thinking when he posted that plan? Have you played with him before? Are you talking to him in PMs? Oh right, you're not and you've never played a game with him. What shitty logic. From what I have experienced, townies get hostile and mad when defending themselves, but chaoser is an exception. As town he is generally calmer than this, and he uses reason. In this instance, of course we knew hyshes's objectives. Hyshes wanted to be hailed in the thread (as he said himself.) What purpose does this serve? Well, if he's scum, it takes a lot of early game pressure off him because he submitted a "good plan" and then isn't receiving pressure for not providing much later on, or even purposely misleading town. Right now, hyshes has been MIA for a while, letting chaoser take the pressure for a bit. I imagine they will switch turns again soon. I already posted why I think hyshes's post came off with scum motivation, so I'm not going to bother repeating that here. Regarding the No-lynch Plan I give the hyshes/chaoser team a very good chance to flip scum. As I said earlier, I think a no-lynch would be good in the case that we're gunning for a townie. However, I sincerely believe that we are not dealing with that right now. I imagine that even if hyshes and chaoser aren't scum, we stand to gain a lot just by looking at how the vote unfolds. Day 1 information is vital, and with a good candidate for lynch we should only avoid lynching them when we're absolutely certain the information lost will be outweighed by the benefit of having that extra townie, and the extra day. So, to answer this: On November 03 2011 18:02 supersoft wrote: yes okay i agree. my "plan" is a bit lame. it's a process that uses the game mechanics in an unfair way. but i guess, posting the logs to avoid a lynch will happen anyway, unless it's forbidden. no further discussion needed. (do the extra work, scummers!) okay next point is GM accusing team Viking. Prplhz is from denmark and hes no anglistic expert. i dont mind some minor mistakes and i do them, too. i know you say he's doing that interpunctuation mistakes on purpose, and you say that a townie has no reason to be hard to understand. i think however, that scum has no reason to be hard to understand, too. therefor... @wbg: who is the scummiest team in your eyes right now? Hyshes and chaoser. Sandro is scummy because his plan makes sense but his motivations and behavior do not. This is how I felt about his plan in PYP:I (and he was scum there) but he's so passive again. At this point there isn't enough information on him; the information we have, IMO, is conflicting and unreliable. PYP:I was a PM game, this is not, and so I don't feel comfortable using that meta, but I think it's a potential lead nonetheless. GM I thought was scummy earlier, but his recent reactions have made him look more town. His posts are like what I would've expected from him as town. If you look at SMG where he smurfed and was scum, he backed off from the spotlight a little (probably because he was afraid of being caught) instead of boldly going out there and just throwing his opinion into the thread. GM as town doesn't back off when he's faced with confrontational or conflicting opinions. You can see that here. Finally, you need to seriously learn how to use meta. I find it hilarious how people think meta carries one to one between PM and non-PM games (and that's just one example; tons of things can affect a person's behavior from game to game) | ||
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Hyshes has been active in the newbie game over the past few hours but not in here. So, he's around. But he's kinda "cooling off" in here. I find that pretty strange. | ||
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
Can mafia choose who performs the kill? | ||
|
GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
Dispite my earlier reservations towards Hyshes, i doubt a newer player as scum would come right out of the gate and try to post a "mafia plan." especially with chaoser on his team. I for one would like to see some more out of iGrok, if I am caught up properly the only thing he said was that he always lurks day1 and will post more later. | ||
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Q: Can a Jailor roleblock a mafia hit? A: Yes, one mafia (can be either one) is designated as the killer, if that guy gets jailed, he won't be able to perform the kill. I thought this meant that mafia could designate the killer, but it could just mean that one team specifically get RNGed as the shooter. | ||
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I'll preface this by stating that in the absence of any scummy players/teams, no lynch is a fine move, and isn't the end of the world. However, playing for a no-lynch, and advocating a no-lynch is bad play. Likewise lynching for the sake of lynching is a bad play. A no-lynch has several positive outcomes for town: 1. Possibly buys more time for the parity cop. 2. Gives an additional 72 hours of discussion before town has to use a lynch. Avoiding a potential mislynch on Day 1. However neither of these benefits are particularly good. Parity Cop is already a weak role, and is even weaker in this set-up. Parity Cop has to survive two lynches and two nightkills to have any useful info, and chances are that info will only be confirming a single townie. Additionally, If the Parity Cop is ever targetted by the jailkeeper(unlikely but possible), it basically becomes a useless role. Town always does much better on day 2 than day 1, because they have heaps more information. The general idea is that by delaying our lynch until day 2, we get the additional info, without the risk of a mislynch on Day 1. However this is a flawed idea. The reason town has so much additional info on Day 2 is because scum are forced to take sides on day 1, and feign scum-hunting. Any decent mafia player can blend in with a no-lynch wagon, precisely because a no-lynch is often an absence of opinion "hmm, everyone seems town to me". The key to a valuable day 1 is getting everyone scumhunting, or feigning scumhunting. Forcing mafia out in to the open, as opposed to creating an atmosphere where weak opinions reign. If a no-lynch happens because we can't find consensus, then so be it, it probably means we didn't have any good candidates. But actively planning for a no-lynch creates an extremely pro-scum atmosphere. | ||
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
First the jailer has to block the correct shooter, then the jailer has to consider that a doctor could have prevented the shot or that the mafia decided not to shoot, then the jailer has to decide whether he roleblocked a mafia or protected a town, then the jailer has to sucessfully push his case in the thread. Parity cop has to survive to day three to be of any use. Assuming worse case scenario where we mislynch the first two days: There is a 1/9 chance he gets lynched day one. A 2/6 chance he gets discovered or shot night one. A 1/7 chance he gets lynched day two. A 1/3 chance he gets shot night two. Which is only about a 10% sucess rate (correct me if I made a mistake here). Going with a double no lynch increases the survival rate of the parity cop slightly, but it really doesn't seem worth giving up a lynch in exchange. | ||
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
| ||
|
chaoser
United States5541 Posts
From what I have experienced, townies get hostile and mad when defending themselves, but chaoser is an exception. As town he is generally calmer than this, and he uses reason. In Death Factory Mafia when people falsely accused me of being mafia for shitty reasons (He's defending himself! He's mafia! Only mafia do that!) I got pissed and I pushed everyone to the edge, then mafia flipped the flames, and everyone died. And I laughed. I laughed for a good three hours. I still laugh when I go back to read that game. So your meta reads on me are completely wrong. I give the hyshes/chaoser team a very good chance to flip scum. @wbg: who is the scummiest team in your eyes right now? Hyshes and chaoser. Says my team is scummy, doesn't vote for us. ??? | ||
| ||
![[image loading]](http://outbreaknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/handshake.jpg)
