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On November 03 2011 09:44 Chocolate wrote:
Drem seems almost absolutely mafia to me. Tomorrow evening I will try to compile a list of who everyone has accused/fosd to make it easier for us to identify who the mafia are, or at least who is ignoring who. TBH drem seems suspicious because he is throwing accusations everywhere and the main people he is accusing are the ones who are after him. Yes I am very suspicious of hacklebeast, especially since he hasn't posted since the end of the last day, but I don't see much more to be suspicious of because he has only two posts of any substance.
the people i've accused genuinely accused: Zanfada (not great reasoning, but it was only my first day, and he just seemed suspicious), SKrammen, YOU, hackle, and Toad.
Of those 5 Toad and SK are the one's i've been constant about, and toad is the only one to make any real accusations against me. Zanfada i hold no real suspicion of anymore.
You claim that i only accuse those who have accused me, but the only person that MIGHT be true for is Toad, but i had expressed suspicion of Toad before he ever accused me of anything, so you're point there is moot. You're even a hypocrite, as you are doing exactly what you accuse me of. I express doubt that you are town, and just a few hours later you show up to defend yourself from the first real accusation against you, and immediately say that i am definitely mafia. That sounds like something scum would do if they were genuinely concerned they'd be caught.
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@SKrammen
If i had changed my vote to you, and you flipped green, everyone who voted for you would have been under heavy suspicion of being scum. So that's 7 people, of which i was 1, so what reasoning would i have to block you're vote if i was mafia? I wouldn't be that much more suspicious than any of the other 6.
For every towny that dies the mafia becomes stronger. If was mafia and had changed my vote to you, and i had said you were suspicious so it's not unlikely for a person to decide to agree with the majority if they had similar convictions, then why would i not vote for you to get you out of the way? The fact is, i didn't have enough conviction to accuse you as i didn't feel that you were necessarily scum. I wasn't convinced enough to take that risk. Bad townie play? possibly. Even worse mafia play? i would believe so.
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##vote Chocolate
Reasons:
1) most of his posts were irrelevant to discussion, and were likely there to just look like he was contributing without doing so.
+ Show Spoiler +On November 01 2011 08:41 Chocolate wrote:He needs to defend himself more if he wants to lose my vote, and probably others (can't say for sure). Also @risk.nuke, I was amused when I saw your reasoning behind not voting on skrammen. It seems a little hypocritical to defend someone and say nobody is defending him. But you still bring up a valid point. Here's a list of players and votes + Show Spoiler +
1. risk.nuke Toadesstern
2. HarbingerOfDoom Skrammen
3. Toadesstern Skrammen
4. Zanfada Skrammen
5. xsksc Skrammen
6. Ciryandor Skrammen
7. hacklebeast toadesstern
8. Skrammen Chocolate
9. hyshes Zanfada
10. Drem903 Zanfada
11. IMABUNNEH Toadesstern
12. Chocolate Skrammen
This post in particular is strange. He responds to people's question on his motivation for voting for SK, but his reasoning is simple "i want him to post more". That's pretty crappy reasoning considering there were plenty of people with even less posted, that had contributed just as little, and you had expressed no prior suspicion.
The list is also out of place. It's just there. Why? Why write up a list if you're not going to make any comments about it. There was no reason, to write it other than useless padding (again, to build the illusion of helping)
2)Again i direct you to my earlier post, you accuse me of only posting when being attacked yet you are doing exactly that. Not only that, you're original statement didn't really have any evidence against me to begin with.
3) You really don't give any reason to vote for me other than "he accused a few other people", which is something that almost everyone here has done. You yourself said you were suspicious of several people, and never made anything of it. So how am i any worse off than you are. Also, it was only Toad that ever accused me of everything. The other people i accused never said anything about me.
4)Finally, you were gone for nearly 24h. You said you were busy all day, which isn't impossible, but a full 24 hour period is longer than a day, and i doubt you were unable to contribute anything to the thread at some point in that time interval.
-you can ignore my 4th point if you want as he really could have been unable to post for an entire day, but it is equally likely that it was an excuse-
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On November 03 2011 12:37 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
Drem, if you are still around, I would also like to know who are several people you think are likely to be town and why.
WHo i think are town (in no particular order), and would be genuinely surprised if they weren't:
Ciryandor - has been one of the main driving forces behind the SKrammen lynch. Although he was not the most active after day 1, almost everyone of his posts offered strong incite, and he provided evidence against everyone he accused. He's currently gunning for me yes, but i will admit i have not been the best at posting, and have not offered the greatest conviction.
Zanfada - I was suspicious of him on day 1, but that has since changed. I was nothing more than caught off guard by his eagerness to make a vote against someone. Since them he has given well thought out statements on who he thinks are scum, and his posts don't really look like scum posts. He doesn't post a lot, but his posts have always been to try and stir conversation, and he's constant in his convicitons.
HarbingerOfDoom - I had no feelings for or against you day 1. The only thing i observed was that you were one of the main proponents of the Lynch SKrammen group. Starting with day 2 though, on the other hand, you have definately been one of the most active people when it come to discussion, and are definately putting pressure on anyone who is suspicious even in the slightest.
The rest of the people, other than those i have already voiced opinions on as scum, i don't really have that much of a read on.
##unvote Chocolate
##vote hyshes
If hyshes is so eager to then we may as well grant him his wish. He was actively posting and trying to contibute, or at least look like he was contributing (the post accusing Ciry was out there, and Ciry is likely a major mafia target because he seems to be one of the more agressive townies). Additionally, the second a major case is brought against him he pretty much completely quits. That's either a townie who never gave a shit, or a mafia that panicked and couldn't think of a way to defend himself.
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with hyshes flipping green, and hackle being more or less gone that doesn't really leave us with a lot of suspects other than myself, and toad (who hyshes was pushing for until he died). I still hold a FoS on chocolate, for the same reasons outlined earlier, and none of the people who i posted to be town have really done anything to warrant a change of opinion.
There really doesn't seem to be a lot to discuss at the moment.
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welcome to to town.. or mafia. We had no clue what hackle was.
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On November 05 2011 11:42 sermokala wrote:
##vote Toadesstern
God damm I've wanted to vote him so hard from before this game got into the teen pages. Every post that I've seen him post just oozes scum.
Next skrammen dies. They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum.
Coul we get more information other than "oozes scum"? What makes these people more suspicious to you?
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On November 05 2011 18:19 xsksc wrote:
@Drem
What are your current reads?
Do you still hold by your day 1 decision to help block the lynch?
How do you feel about Skrammen and Toad now?
My current reads are still: Chocolate and SK.
My reasons remain the same for chocolate as they were on day 2, and he hasn't posted since he changed his vote to Hyshes (it could be interesting to note that he does point out that mafia are among the people who voted for hyshes, as he himself did). This could be reading into things now, but he was also the last person to vote hyshes. When would be the best time for mafia to vote for a town other than towards the end to make sure that a townie was lynched, and there were not last second changes?
My read on SK isn't the strongest, but Toad has at least contributed a decent amount. SK on the other hand hasn't posted that much (although we have to beware that he could also be a blue, that's trying to lay low). Even his most recent post doesn't amount to much other than a welcome for sermokala, and a hypothetical situation based on who turns up red.
My read on Toad is kind of up in the air though. His posts are really long, not that that's a bad thing, but in this case his posts amount to a few points, and paragraphs of fluff that could be cut out. It would be dangerous for a mafia to post as much as he does, as he risks making a scum slip, so that's on the things that makes me tentative to declare him to be scum (it looks liek it's either him or SK).
Do i hold by my decision to block the lynch? No, i'm pretty sure i said i regret doing it. in the end, we're 3 days in and we've gotten nowhere (although it is still a surprise that mafia didn't kill anyone (or they got blocked)), and i'm definitely one of the people to blame for that.
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On November 07 2011 04:39 Skrammen wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2011 04:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:So I thought I'd have more time now, as the original plan was my gf got back this evening, but instead she'll apparently be back within the next 15 minutes now. As such, I don't think I'll be able to make a big case post now (maybe I'll still get one up before the deadline? :-/), but I thought I'd make some contributions while I can. @Skrammen regarding Drem, possibly a bit outdated, but: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=23#444Might have the info you want. Unless something comes up to change my mind, I am willing to vote for the following 4 people today: Skrammen, Chocolate, xsksc, Drem. With a preference in order of xsksc, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem. Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now ##vote xsksc How did I miss that... Well, I guess that answers it then, unless you got something else to add, Drem? I've also been thinking about somthing else: + Show Spoiler +His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another. Wouldnt it make perfect sense for us to FoS each other if we were both mafia? And wouldnt it make sense for you to put suspicion on Zanfada if you two were mafiabuddies? I know this is nothing solid nor any evidence of anything, I'd just like some input on this, because I'm not able to make up my mind about this. The activity has really dropped here the for the last few hours, and the lynch deadline is coming up fast.
There's not much to really add, to that. I still think the same poeple are town as before, none of them have changed. To me it would only make sense for mafia to throw suspicion on one another if they felt confident neither of them would be lynched. In the first day, i guess it's not a big risk. Still, this could still lead to the problem where if two mafia indicate each other in an attempt to just look like they're contributing, then one of them gets looked at too closely, slips up, and gets lynched. Mafia indicating mafia, to me, should only happen after there's a strong chance for a lynch on a town, just to look like you're genuinely active.
@Toad You're bolded post isn't entirely misinterpreted, but that comment was made prior to me learning that there were only 3 mafia (up until then i genuinely thought there were only 2), so pointing out that someone posted something that should be obvious is only hypocritical in hindsight.
Also, the ability to change votes isn't covered in the rules posted on page 1 (or in any of the guides at a glance), so i can't see what's suspicious about asking a question about something that isn't covered.
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WEll at this point, a vote for Chocolate or SK won't happen, and those are the people i've been most suspicious of. Going to look at Toad a bit more, but honestly i just don't know if he's scum or not.
The only really scummy thing that stood out to me was encouraging blues to post more frequently on day 1, and then being sure that we had a hero medic on night 2. But the thing is even if he was mafia, how could he know if we actually had a medic or any other blue? He really can't, so that's not really scummy at all.
From there, the only other thing is that his posts have a lot of fluff, and just seem to kind of meh. They do drive discussion, but a good portion of it is discussion against him, (although it has contributed to discussion of other major suspects).
So when it comes down to a vote, i guess we need to vote based on suspicion and what would give us the most information.
so ##vote toadesstern
some people have defended him, others have been a lot more active in accusing him. If he's red, we have a good idea who else is red, if he's green... then i guess i'm dead next since i seem to be the other prime suspect on everybody's list.
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Brief explanation of Drem vote: He's been playing the newbie card really hard all game. Granted this is a newbie game, but his 'mistakes' have always had the effect of helping out scum, whether it be blocking a lynch, or spreading misinformation regarding the town/mafia balance. He also originally says he doesn't have a good reason as to why he didn't vote Skrammen, then later says he didn't because he was worried a mis-lynch would have been much worse for town than a no-lynch was. Why would he go back and change his mind on this?
Because "no lynch, is better than a unsuported lynch" doesn't seem like a good reason in terms of this type of game. So i'm not going back on anything. Multiple people asked, so i expanded up on it a bit more so that they would have a satisfactory answer. It was not a good reason, but i had one.
Also, how does spreading misinformation work when i was almost immediately corrected, and seemed to be the only one who made this mistake? Even then, i just said it'd be hard to get a majority, which was true until hyshes martyred himself for no reason.
Also, as an aside, the thing about playing the newbie card. It was never brought up until i screwed up with he number of mafia. I still dont' get where i'm playing the newbie card, so some more info on that would actually be nice.
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On November 07 2011 09:15 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
Ninja'ed by toad to some extent, but to anyone thinking Ciry and I are town, it takes all but one town vote to lynch without scum help, so ask yourselves, do you think the entire rest of town is voting Toad right now?
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Sorry, that was a fuck up. What i meant to say was: since 2 of the 3 people i think are town are voting against me, i have to say no, the rest of the town isn't voting toad. I wouldn't' even be voteing toad if it wasn't for the fact that the last time i blocked a lynch caused me a shit load of problems, and no one else on my list is a viable target atm. Toad is someone that i never had a read (somewhat suspicious of, but not very), and i can't vote for myself. So i'm kind of at an impass.
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i'd vote for choc or SK pretty readily since they are both the poeple i am most suspicious of.
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##unvote toadesstern
##vote Chocolate
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On November 07 2011 09:57 Chocolate wrote:
Wait so why are you all lynching me? Because I went a little inactive? Hopefully my computer problems are fixed now, but that's not it. I am honestly curious as to why you all want to lynch me. If you all read sermo's post detailing why he wanted to lynch toad then it should make complete sense.
well, you also never followed up on your promise:
On November 03 2011 09:44 Chocolate wrote:
Drem seems almost absolutely mafia to me. Tomorrow evening I will try to compile a list of who everyone has accused/fosd to make it easier for us to identify who the mafia are, or at least who is ignoring who. TBH drem seems suspicious because he is throwing accusations everywhere and the main people he is accusing are the ones who are after him. Yes I am very suspicious of hacklebeast, especially since he hasn't posted since the end of the last day, but I don't see much more to be suspicious of because he has only two posts of any substance.
I know you keep saying you're having computer problems, but an excuse to not post doesn't really help anyone's case, and the only way to get information is through post analysis. If a person isn't posting, it becomes suspicious. You claim to have a reason, and in any other kind of thread where you were an active part of discussion this would be acceptable, but in this kind of thread you could also be a mafia who's trying to use any excuse to avoid posting and risking some kind of slip.
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On November 07 2011 10:27 Ciryandor wrote:
## Vote Chocolate
Well, we need two votes on this one, but I'm suspicious as fuck on the jumpers being Skrammen and Drem. I can still change my vote to force a lynch because it's morning here and I'm going to an SC2 tourney later after the deadline clears.
Well, the options stand at Sk, Chocolate, myself, and toad. You and Har probably have the biggest influence on who gets lynched, and could probably get people on to whoever you want. I'm not really a jumper as i didn't really want to vote for toad in the first place, but i just didn't have the swing to pull people to a chocolate or SK vote, and toad was the only other person possible.
If i had voted randomly for someone else and the vote had ended up a draw (not enough for either toad or myself) then i would have been even more screwed. I had already blocked the day 1 lynch, and blocking the day 3 lynch would've just gotten my killed day 4. I wouldn't be able to talk myself out of it, i would be lynched. So my only hope was to vote for toad and have him turn up mafia.
I'm still in the same position. If chocolate turns out town, then i still die, but chocolate is the person that i'm most confident in.
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On November 07 2011 12:21 Ciryandor wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2011 11:48 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
This is all assuming no more gosu-medic and if we fucked up this lynch: 8 remain, 5 town, takes all town votes to lynch if scum won't join. At that point every day is mislynch = lose, and we get one day of no-lynch if we so chose, but then every day after that one is lynch scum or lose. Activity is key, and we have a lot of people lacking in it. Even those that are active tend to post a lot of filler unless specific requests are made. Not a good town environment. I'm also praying for a good medic save, but... wait I think I fucked it up for you as well. You were pushing for Drem right? I was suspicious as fuck of him as you saw in the PBP, but wanted to have a read on Skrammen before I decided who we needed to lynch. Would we have gotten 6 on him if I voted for him?
If you would have voted for me the post would have been 5 for me, 4 for toad. From there you probably could have easily had a 6th (i don't think chocolate had voted yet, or SK).
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wow, i was almost certain they were going to kill either Harbinger or Ciry.
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Well, turns out Chocolate was town so.... i'm kind of at a loss.
The only person other person left that i'm suspicious of is Sk so:
[b]##vote Skrammen/b]
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EPT
