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My Little Pony Mafia

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 07 2011 19:20 GMT
#39
am I too late to /in?
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 17 2011 22:02 GMT
#657
Howdy Y'all.
I'm not really able to sort through the thread for a day or so, relatively busy weekend, so apologies in advance, but I have tons of spare time after to catch up and contribute.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 17 2011 22:05 GMT
#659
Hmmm I just looked that's going to be cutting it awfully close to the lynch, I guess I'd better find something to start with so we don't need a replacement replaced.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 17 2011 22:30 GMT
#665
I focused on Forumite, after getting pointed out for heavily accusing Jackal he's changed his contribution pattern significantly.
My current best guess is jackal/forumite/tnkted mafia, so just in case I don't get time to look through it properly before the deadline, I'm going to leave my vote on Forumite.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 17 2011 22:31 GMT
#667
Oh how did I forget the
##Vote Forumite
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 19 2011 10:13 GMT
#937
On September 19 2011 18:44 Lucidity wrote:
No lynch was the worst possible outcome for yesterday. Now we're right back where we started. Effectively we're going to redo Day 2 with 1 less townie. Lynching me would have been better than a no lynch.

And if your town, that makes it Day 3 with with 2 less townies?
Mis-lynches are not things to be desired, I'd rather be fairly sure about my targets. Unfortunately I didn't have more time over the weekend to see through the thread, I'm checking it over now and I'll post more tomorrow.
In the meantime, don't take my initial impression too heavily unless I end up dead.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 09:24 GMT
#1041
I'm sorry for lurking, I had to stay active in LOTR mafia while having a really busy weekend, rest assured I've caught up now and I'm going to reason out my initial suspicions.

Jackal
+ Show Spoiler +
On September 14 2011 22:32 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2011 22:19 chaos13 wrote:
On September 14 2011 21:20 Forumite wrote:
I´m not following this argument, Chaos13, you are saying that you distrust something tnkted said, and that makes me scum?


No, when I read tnkted's post I agreed with him without actually reading things over again. Then when I did read things over again I realized I still thought you were scum.

I think tnkted is scum for other reasons, and I'll leave that alone until tomorrow or another day cause right now it would just be cluttering up the thread. Not a good thing to introduce new suspects this late into a majority lynch.

This thread couldn't be any more cluttered than it is right now.
I don't follow your logic regarding tnkted and Forumite. tnkted convinces you Forumite isn't scum, then you revisit it and decide they are both scum. But you give us no reason for either of them other than I changed my mind again and I'll tell you later.

##VOTE: Chaos13

Scum play 101 dude.


Notice how chaos was first to wind up dead? current scum meta seems to rely on wifom to excuse anyone the NK blames

On September 16 2011 12:00 Jackal58 wrote:
As for the snide remark about Curu? Really?

Bandwagoning

Ludicrous. I was the first vote on Forumite? How is that bandwagoning?

As for the "5 wagons" I jumped on (lol?): They are all acting suspicious. I voted for sinani because we need a majority to lynch, and none of the other candidates seemed to be viable options. We barely made majority with only 7 votes on him at deadline. I don't regret my choice. I guess if your wagon had more support behind it we might have lynched scum Day1?


You never voted for Forumite.

On September 17 2011 03:33 Jackal58 wrote:
Yes Twinkles is tnkted.

Show nested quote +
On September 17 2011 01:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
On September 16 2011 19:44 Jackal58 wrote:
Twinkles is town. Guaranteed.


What is this? Are you saying tnkted is town?

I won't believe this until I have adequate reason to, as for now I still think tnkted is mafia.

Nisani is acting pretty weird too, he hasn't said anything about tnkted really but insta voted him after the day post with no reasoning.

Anyway, I won't be around for the next 12-16 hours or so. Today is Friday and all my HW is due (plus I have like five classes) so I won't be free until tonight around 8 pm PST or so. I'll be back then to see how the thread has gone.

Till then, the best lynch, IMO, is tntked.

##vote tnkted


Because he did something incredibly stupid. He got lucky but it was still stupid. (Sorry twinkles)
If you feel compelled to lynch me to verify my alignment I'm ok with that. But you do so under the condition that you guys keep twinkles alive. He's 500% guaranteed town.


We should test this

On September 19 2011 09:10 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2011 08:57 GreYMisT wrote:
I know how to solve this mess of a day we have created.
## Unvote
## Vote Jackal58


You said earlier that you are ok with us killing you to confirm the alignment of tntked. I feel that is nessesary now more than ever.

I forget the game, but we know that you have done crazy scum gambits before, like when you bussed jee jee day1ish. So far all analysis we have done today is WIFOM assuming that you and tntked are confirmed town. Looking back I now realize it is imperitave that we confirm tntked, the holder of the items.
Or has your opinion changed jackal? are you no longer ok with supplying us with a 500% confirmed town at your expense?

Nope. Have not changed a thing. If my lynch helps to secure a town victory I'm all for it.
Of Forumite, WBG, and Lucidity at least 1 is definitely scum if not 2 of them. I personally see it as most likely 1 atm. If WBG flips town I don't know yet which of the other two is going to flip scum but one of them will.


He knows that ONE is scum

On September 19 2011 10:47 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2011 10:46 Forumite wrote:
Jackal, has the exchange between me and WBG made him look more or less scummy to you?

Less.


Here he attempts to relieve pressure on Forumite


Forumite

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 13 2011 10:13 Forumite wrote:
Personally, I don´t want to lynch lurkers or Jackal. Lynching Jackal for the fun of it is a mistake. Checking the last games, he´s often dead after the second night, mostly after he rolls Town and gets lynched anyway. He could be scum (Like in the CH game ), but I´m not wasting time pushing to lynch him until he´s shown some real scumtells. Jackal does warrant a cop check though, if we have a detective out there.


Killing Jackal is a mistake

On September 18 2011 04:14 Forumite wrote:
I believe Jackal and tnkted's claim, and we should back off from them. It´s a closed game, and the simplest solution is that they got something interesting in their PMs, not that Scum suddenly tried an extremely risky gambit to get two of their own killed. In my eyes, they are confirmed Town, although how long they´ll last is anyones guess.


We should back away?

On September 18 2011 08:11 Forumite wrote:
Capital letters of the PM, in order: YIPM

It did not contain a mason circle, we did not have the option to speak to eachother, we just got a piece each, and had to hope for a claim or breadcrumb to lead us to the other. I breadcrumbes, WBG didn´t until recently. Without a mason circle, it makes sense to get the pieces earlier, so there was more time to find the other holder.


This makes me think Jackal and Tnkted's mason circle is fake, since the rules don't appear to be consistant.

On September 19 2011 09:44 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2011 09:39 GreYMisT wrote:
You are right, tntked gave his piece to Jackal who then gave the completed piece to tntked. This completely eliminates the 3rd possibility in my eyes, however the 1st and 2nd are still viable options.

While they might be both red, if they are that ballsy, but if we haven´t hit jackpot, killing one Town to confirm another feels counterproductive. We would probably end up with 2 dead Town today, that´s why I don´t like killing to confirm. It´s just lynching for information.


Which makes it a great claim for scum in a closed setup.

Tnkted

+ Show Spoiler +
Tnkted doesn't have much on him, and I was almost willing to accept that him and Jackal were innocent, up until this contradiction

On September 16 2011 13:26 tnkted wrote:
I'm not scum. Jackal is town if I get vigged, thanks to his post above here.


On September 20 2011 12:35 tnkted wrote:
okay, but scum won't be guessing if I give them to you.


Hey yall, if I die due to a daykill or whatever lynch jackal k?


Of the three, I find Forumite the most scummy
##Vote Forumite
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 09:25 GMT
#1042
EBWOP this line was supposed to be inside the above spoiler, I can't believe I missed that
"Which makes it a great claim for scum in a closed setup."
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 10:01 GMT
#1045
I just realised I missed an important connection, notice that previously my linking was mostly forumite latching onto the others, possibly in an attempt to look town when they flip. The chance of mafia getting three pieces of the elements before day 2 seem low, so it leads me to thinking Tnkted and Jackal are actually townies.

On September 19 2011 07:26 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2011 07:21 tnkted wrote:
Am I imagining things, or did Curu and nisani and somebody else claim to all be in a mason circle on quicktopic? Don't they have shards as well?

Curu, Nisani and I have a quicktopic, but it´s not connected to pieces of Harmony, it´s due to us being,
CUTIE MARK CRUSADERS, YEAH!


Nisani waits until nobody claims half of an element from day 1 before proceeding to 'clear' Forumite.
Their QT has nothing to do with the elements.
I would like to put forward the idea that the cutie mark crusaders are the theme for the mafia's ponies, which would match up with s1e17. They wandered into the forest looking for cutie marks, and the cockatrice in the forest is petrifying those who would search for them.

+ Show Spoiler [Don't use this as evidence] +

Just a little thing I noticed : despite being first on the replacements list, Curu was chosen to fill the missing role, I believe this is because I proved myself to be incredibly nooby in my first game, Cosmic horror mafia, where GM was participating as TheFerryman
I believe this is because ON was a mafia, and GM thought it better that a pro took the mafia spot
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 10:03 GMT
#1046
On September 20 2011 18:51 Forumite wrote:
Cyber, are you saying that there is a 3-person scumcircle that revealed themselves around the element claims, or was it just an excuse to throw a vote on me? Having allready voted on me yesterday, can you not make a more detailed analysis, and actually consider if how we handle the elements change things in any way? Of your quoted posts on me, the one about the Jackal+tnkted mason circle isn´t even about me, and as you mentioned, it´s a closed setup, so we can´t know how the elements are given out. Your case on tnkted are not even scummy, it´s tnkted wanting to make sure he´s not screwed over.


No, that was merely an explaination of my beliefs from yesterday, with some reasoning, and a placeholder vote just in case I don't get around to moving it.
In hindsight, the names shouldn't be red.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 10:15 GMT
#1048
On September 20 2011 19:10 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2011 19:01 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
I just realised I missed an important connection, notice that previously my linking was mostly forumite latching onto the others, possibly in an attempt to look town when they flip. The chance of mafia getting three pieces of the elements before day 2 seem low, so it leads me to thinking Tnkted and Jackal are actually townies.

On September 19 2011 07:26 Forumite wrote:
On September 19 2011 07:21 tnkted wrote:
Am I imagining things, or did Curu and nisani and somebody else claim to all be in a mason circle on quicktopic? Don't they have shards as well?

Curu, Nisani and I have a quicktopic, but it´s not connected to pieces of Harmony, it´s due to us being,
CUTIE MARK CRUSADERS, YEAH!


Nisani waits until nobody claims half of an element from day 1 before proceeding to 'clear' Forumite.
Their QT has nothing to do with the elements.
I would like to put forward the idea that the cutie mark crusaders are the theme for the mafia's ponies, which would match up with s1e17. They wandered into the forest looking for cutie marks, and the cockatrice in the forest is petrifying those who would search for them.

+ Show Spoiler [Don't use this as evidence] +

Just a little thing I noticed : despite being first on the replacements list, Curu was chosen to fill the missing role, I believe this is because I proved myself to be incredibly nooby in my first game, Cosmic horror mafia, where GM was participating as TheFerryman
I believe this is because ON was a mafia, and GM thought it better that a pro took the mafia spot

So, you assumed I was scum, and then based your other analysis around that, and now you are doing it again. Do you still think Jackal+tnkted lied about their mason-circle, or is that not convenient evidence anymore?

Yes, it has been proposed that the CMC are actually a scum circle, but in that case, why did I claim an element? That Nisani would help me if I got into trouble makes sense, but why would then Curu jump out and start accusing me immediately after the others claimed? There was no pressure on him revealing himself, not from me or Nisani, nor from Town in general. If we are all scum, why is it a good idea to reveal ourselves in connection to eachother? Scum don´t want connections that can implicate them all. If there are two scum that go down together, then there´s a third one desperately trying to look Town by lynching them. Based on that, us all being scum really doesn´t make any sense at all.


And based on scum knowing that, they could use it to their advantage to save the third person by choosing to link them, it's a very wifom scenario.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 10:24 GMT
#1051
On September 20 2011 19:16 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2011 19:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On September 20 2011 18:51 Forumite wrote:
Cyber, are you saying that there is a 3-person scumcircle that revealed themselves around the element claims, or was it just an excuse to throw a vote on me? Having allready voted on me yesterday, can you not make a more detailed analysis, and actually consider if how we handle the elements change things in any way? Of your quoted posts on me, the one about the Jackal+tnkted mason circle isn´t even about me, and as you mentioned, it´s a closed setup, so we can´t know how the elements are given out. Your case on tnkted are not even scummy, it´s tnkted wanting to make sure he´s not screwed over.


No, that was merely an explaination of my beliefs from yesterday, with some reasoning, and a placeholder vote just in case I don't get around to moving it.
In hindsight, the names shouldn't be red.

Why shouldn´t it be red? Your analysis on Jackal seemed to suggest he´s definetly scum, unless the hindsight you mean is that you changed your mind entirely on those two.


None of my arguments so far are solid, it's all rough speculation. Unless it matches up with pre-existing arguments, it should taken with a very sceptical outlook, which the choice of red doesn't imply in the slightest.
I'm curious as to why you chose to first discredit my arguments and then when I chose to discredit them to an extent them myself, you suddenly want me to commit to only one of them.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 11:35 GMT
#1054
On September 20 2011 19:32 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2011 19:24 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On September 20 2011 19:16 Forumite wrote:
On September 20 2011 19:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On September 20 2011 18:51 Forumite wrote:
Cyber, are you saying that there is a 3-person scumcircle that revealed themselves around the element claims, or was it just an excuse to throw a vote on me? Having allready voted on me yesterday, can you not make a more detailed analysis, and actually consider if how we handle the elements change things in any way? Of your quoted posts on me, the one about the Jackal+tnkted mason circle isn´t even about me, and as you mentioned, it´s a closed setup, so we can´t know how the elements are given out. Your case on tnkted are not even scummy, it´s tnkted wanting to make sure he´s not screwed over.


No, that was merely an explaination of my beliefs from yesterday, with some reasoning, and a placeholder vote just in case I don't get around to moving it.
In hindsight, the names shouldn't be red.

Why shouldn´t it be red? Your analysis on Jackal seemed to suggest he´s definetly scum, unless the hindsight you mean is that you changed your mind entirely on those two.


None of my arguments so far are solid, it's all rough speculation. Unless it matches up with pre-existing arguments, it should taken with a very sceptical outlook, which the choice of red doesn't imply in the slightest.
I'm curious as to why you chose to first discredit my arguments and then when I chose to discredit them to an extent them myself, you suddenly want me to commit to only one of them.

And now you are backing off, but keeping the vote on me...

You do know you are voting on me, right? Of course I´m going to discredit them, especially if the case is going to be this weak.


But you stopped discrediting them long enough to commit to making me specifically target Jackal why?
Because it was a trap designed for you to prove your scumminess, the case on Jackal was inappropriately the strongest, when blaming him for chaos's death didn't actually make any sense
Chaos did at no point accuse Jackal, and therefore the whole NK WIFOM section belongs under Tnkted.
You chose to overlook it, because it was convenient that I had 'forgotten' that the main person he had accused was you.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 17:41 GMT
#1062
I've been going about this all the wrong way, I tried to write an epic wall of text on who the mafia were to make up for my lurking, and it was horrible, so I'm thinking we take a different approach
So far the discussion is too based on elements, pm circles and pony lore.
We all know there is probably three scum left, and I think it would be best if town got organized and sorted out who is most likely to be scum, so I'm thinking everybody post the three people you think most likely to be mafia and why
Mine is the cutie mark crusaders for the reasons I listed a page ago
An organized town is mafias worst enemy, we can analyse people that appear on everybodys lists and crosscheck with the lynch today etc with that information.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 18:30 GMT
#1067
On September 21 2011 03:01 Lucidity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2011 02:41 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
I've been going about this all the wrong way, I tried to write an epic wall of text on who the mafia were to make up for my lurking, and it was horrible, so I'm thinking we take a different approach
So far the discussion is too based on elements, pm circles and pony lore.
We all know there is probably three scum left, and I think it would be best if town got organized and sorted out who is most likely to be scum, so I'm thinking everybody post the three people you think most likely to be mafia and why
Mine is the cutie mark crusaders for the reasons I listed a page ago
An organized town is mafias worst enemy, we can analyse people that appear on everybodys lists and crosscheck with the lynch today etc with that information.

Fluff.

Bad logic.

Lurker.

Scum.

##Vote Cyber_Cheese

Explain to me why all 3 scum would out themselves and talk about their QT in the thread?


So what exactly about the plan is bad logic or scummy?
I'm a replacement who's been largely inactive in this game, rather than need to go through and make a very solid case that explained everything I thought about everyone, I could go about it and lay a trap for scum to waltz into, and you waltz'd perfectly.
Especially since your strongest 'evidence' in throwing that vote on me was the arguments I admitted to being particularly weak yesterday AND you are not a part of those three people that declared to have a circle.
If we needed evidence on Lucidity, this seems to be it.
##Unvote Forumite
##Vote Lucidity
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 18:37 GMT
#1069
^that aside, it's still a good idea that everybody follow through with the plan, and with this in mind Forumite Curu and Lucidity are my current mafia suspects, Forumite and Curu because chaos FoS'd them both and Lucidity is self explanatory.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 18:46 GMT
#1071
On September 21 2011 03:42 Erandorr wrote:
Cyber. what are your thoughts on nisani , bugs and sevryn/me at this point?


If the previous page taught me anything, my current reads aren't very well thought out. I would much rather craft new ones with what remains of the game.
I'd ask that if you care for my reads you make it a little bit easier and follow through with my proposed plan.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 19:55 GMT
#1077
On September 21 2011 04:35 Lucidity wrote:
Cyber_Cheese is either incredibly bad, or scum. I would like to see him die. But we can keep him around for comedic effect.

Today, either Forumite or Jackal should die.

Thoughts?


I find your dismissal of my plan extremely bad AND scummy
For some reason, all you've said about it is
On September 21 2011 03:01 Lucidity wrote:
Fluff.

Bad logic.

Lurker.

Scum.

##Vote Cyber_Cheese

Explain to me why all 3 scum would out themselves and talk about their QT in the thread?

and posted a random unrelated video.

Until you have some logic backing up the Fluff, Bad logic and Scum statements, you aren't in much of a position to decree anything.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 21:28 GMT
#1083
On September 21 2011 06:18 wherebugsgo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2011 06:14 Nisani201 wrote:
On September 21 2011 03:37 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
^that aside, it's still a good idea that everybody follow through with the plan, and with this in mind Forumite Curu and Lucidity are my current mafia suspects, Forumite and Curu because chaos FoS'd them both and Lucidity is self explanatory.

This post does not make sense, if Forumite and Cury are mafia, then I must be mafia too (unless GM is epic trolling me). You're starting to get to dangerously close to WBG's level.


If this isn't distancing then I don't know what is.


I mentioned Forumite and Curu were my suspects for reasons outside of them being in the cutie mark crusaders. He seems to have panicked so hard that he didn't even bother thinking through what I was saying.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 20 2011 21:29 GMT
#1085
On September 21 2011 06:24 Lucidity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2011 11:07 GMarshal wrote:
It is now night 2! You have 24 actions to get actions in to me. Dreamflower did not vote, and will be replaced in the next 24 hours or modkilled with the day post. I still need 2 replacements

What happened with this?


Changing the subject so soon?
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 22 2011 12:40 GMT
#1382
On September 22 2011 11:19 Nisani201 wrote:
I just had a crazy idea...

What if there is no scum?


What if the scum is you, lucidity, and ... someone...
lucidity im relatively sure of from that whole trap thing earlier, and you screamed suspicious as i was playing catch-up in the thread
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
September 22 2011 17:04 GMT
#1386
On September 22 2011 22:18 Lucidity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2011 21:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On September 22 2011 11:19 Nisani201 wrote:
I just had a crazy idea...

What if there is no scum?


What if the scum is you, lucidity, and ... someone...
lucidity im relatively sure of from that whole trap thing earlier, and you screamed suspicious as i was playing catch-up in the thread

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +
OMGUS
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
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