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On September 04 2011 00:04 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, assuming there are 3 scum, this would mean the mafia kp is 2. 3 died last night. So that means someone died by a way other than mafia kp. This is either the minion shot or the vig shot. I'm going to assume the vig didn't shoot already, but it's possible.
If sinani had been scum, this would reduce the mafia numbers to 2, and thus, their kp to 1. Chances are very very high that sinani was not scum.
@_@
Good point.
On September 04 2011 00:12 Palmar wrote:
yeah, chaos13 is the remaining scum.
gogo
Hi Palmar.
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impossible. If sinani is scum then their KP wouldn't be reduced the same night because that would be bad modding or a totally different mechanic we aren't aware of. Scum don't lose KP on a night one of their members die, it always goes into effect for the next night.
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On September 03 2011 09:23 OriginalName wrote:We dont know that for sure. Settle down there is probably more going on right now than is clear to us.
Oh god, look at the time on this post. We know for a fact that ON was around at the time of the lynch but he did nothing to prevent mafia from screwing with the votes and threw away his vote on kenpachi who had only one vote at the time. He also never comented on bumatlarge. Also 90% of his posts are one-liners which is unlike him when he is actually town. The only medium post he made was calling out kenpachi, which he admited to have no idea of alignment in this post:
On September 03 2011 05:24 OriginalName wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2011 05:22 sandroba wrote:On September 03 2011 05:19 OriginalName wrote:a vet that knows how he plays. Since when have I been a vet? You have played numerous games and started way before I did, so to me you are a vet. Also wether or not you are a vet doesn't make any difference. You know kenpachi and I know you can't tell if he is mafia or not yet. Your vote on him is a throw away vote with little chance for sucess. Its still marginally better than most of the shitty wagons you guys have started.
He opted not to choose one of the leading candidates and leave the lynch to be tampered with by mafia. Would a townie ON do this? The answer is no. He is mafia.
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@Ace I would actually like an opinion on what is going on. I have no problem lynching you if you choose not to contribute.
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On September 04 2011 00:22 Ace wrote:
impossible. If sinani is scum then their KP wouldn't be reduced the same night because that would be bad modding or a totally different mechanic we aren't aware of. Scum don't lose KP on a night one of their members die, it always goes into effect for the next night.
I would want confirmation on this from iGrok. Cuuuuuuz that's stupid. If we killed a scum, that sucks for them, but we killed a scum. The rules say mafia kp is n/2. If we lynch a scum, that reduces scum numbers.
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On September 04 2011 00:51 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2011 00:22 Ace wrote:
impossible. If sinani is scum then their KP wouldn't be reduced the same night because that would be bad modding or a totally different mechanic we aren't aware of. Scum don't lose KP on a night one of their members die, it always goes into effect for the next night. I would want confirmation on this from iGrok. Cuuuuuuz that's stupid. If we killed a scum, that sucks for them, but we killed a scum. The rules say mafia kp is n/2. If we lynch a scum, that reduces scum numbers.
[g]Balls, forgot green text. WTB iGrok.[/g]
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On September 04 2011 00:51 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2011 00:51 jcarlsoniv wrote:On September 04 2011 00:22 Ace wrote:
impossible. If sinani is scum then their KP wouldn't be reduced the same night because that would be bad modding or a totally different mechanic we aren't aware of. Scum don't lose KP on a night one of their members die, it always goes into effect for the next night. I would want confirmation on this from iGrok. Cuuuuuuz that's stupid. If we killed a scum, that sucks for them, but we killed a scum. The rules say mafia kp is n/2. If we lynch a scum, that reduces scum numbers. [g]Balls, forgot green text. WTB iGrok.[/g]
derp
WTB iGrok
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On September 04 2011 00:51 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2011 00:22 Ace wrote:
impossible. If sinani is scum then their KP wouldn't be reduced the same night because that would be bad modding or a totally different mechanic we aren't aware of. Scum don't lose KP on a night one of their members die, it always goes into effect for the next night. I would want confirmation on this from iGrok. Cuuuuuuz that's stupid. If we killed a scum, that sucks for them, but we killed a scum. The rules say mafia kp is n/2. If we lynch a scum, that reduces scum numbers.
o wait I forgot sinani died by lynch, not night kill. Nevermind.
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On September 04 2011 00:55 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2011 00:51 jcarlsoniv wrote:On September 04 2011 00:22 Ace wrote:
impossible. If sinani is scum then their KP wouldn't be reduced the same night because that would be bad modding or a totally different mechanic we aren't aware of. Scum don't lose KP on a night one of their members die, it always goes into effect for the next night. I would want confirmation on this from iGrok. Cuuuuuuz that's stupid. If we killed a scum, that sucks for them, but we killed a scum. The rules say mafia kp is n/2. If we lynch a scum, that reduces scum numbers. o wait I forgot sinani died by lynch, not night kill. Nevermind.
At which point are you going to enlighten us with some of your reads? you voted chaos13 last night, and based on chaos's latest post I think it's not a bad read.
It's pretty frustrating having to fish information out of people, but really, you are the last huge unknown factor in this game.
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I dont give out my reads until I feel it's necessary.
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You guys realize I have 3 votes on me, right? Look at who voted for me. If ON and bum come back and they're scum, I'm pretty much guaranteed to be dead today.
We need to lynch chaos and ON, or bum and chaos, or bum and ON. I think the best combination is chaos/ON.
Of course, the thing is that if mafia want me dead and I don't get lynched I'll probably just get shot. If these 3 votes don't get pulled off me then mafia RB can easily shift votes off their guy onto a townie.
I'll be back in 20 and start filtering posts on my comp (on my phone right now) to verify some of my thoughts real quick
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On September 03 2011 10:32 redFF wrote:
im secret coroners apprentice, checked varp and sinani both town ressurect sinani plz.
Just so we can be clear here redff, you checked both? I believe you, but I know the OP specifically says a corpse. Can you clarify the differences between coroner as it states in the OP and coroner's apprentice?
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On September 04 2011 03:29 wherebugsgo wrote:
You guys realize I have 3 votes on me, right? Look at who voted for me. If ON and bum come back and they're scum, I'm pretty much guaranteed to be dead today.
We need to lynch chaos and ON, or bum and chaos, or bum and ON. I think the best combination is chaos/ON.
Of course, the thing is that if mafia want me dead and I don't get lynched I'll probably just get shot. If these 3 votes don't get pulled off me then mafia RB can easily shift votes off their guy onto a townie.
I'll be back in 20 and start filtering posts on my comp (on my phone right now) to verify some of my thoughts real quick
You don't need to worry about me voting you, I've never seen you play scum, but you haven't given me any reason to think so. I'm not really concerned about Ace, I'm just hoping he decides to bust out some plan, because if he doesn't soon, he would be some third party. I think he is way to proud to act this way as scum.
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Yo palmar, can you get back into old palmar mode and pummel some sense into this town pls?
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On September 03 2011 06:32 iGrok wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2011 06:08 sandroba wrote:
Igrok, can we please get a vote count?
We have to consolidate the votes now, so mafia can't lynch whoever they want. There will be no vote count. I will tell you who has voted for who.
Jackal58 =====chaos13
RedFF=======Varpulis
Sknowman====jcarlsoniv
Kenpachi=====Varpulis
wherebugsgo==OriginalName
sinani206=====bumatlarge
Drazerk=======sinani206
jcarlsoniv=====sinani206
Varpulis======sinani206
Ace==========chaos13
Original Name==Kenpachi
Palmar========bumatlarge
chaos13=======Palmar
bumatlarge====Kenpachi
Sandroba======bumatlarge
bumatlarge=====varpulis
Few things here I want to point out. There's a bunch of WIFOM here with respect to bum. For me, personally, looking at everything that's happened today/yesterday and at the vote counts, I give bum a 50/50% shot at flipping mafia. I think sandroba is town, so I value his RB claim (and no one has counter claimed RB) so I think it's very possible that mafia RBed sandroba in order to get fewer votes on bum. Then again, we could very likely have been on the path to lynch 3 townies, so mafia could've just arbitrarily picked sandroba because he appeared to be a definite town, possibly with a power, so they blocked him and created this WIFOM because of sandroba's insistence on lynching bum.
bum=?
Next, look at the other two people who voted varpulis. Kenpachi and red. They voted together on me as well. I'm thinking their alignments are possibly linked. I give them a strong chance to both flip mafia, or both flip town. I'll get back to them in a sec.
The remaining two players I suspect are chaos13 and ON.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 03 2011 23:58 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2011 15:49 sandroba wrote:
okay what? What are you actually saying in this post? Why am I scum? And why did you suddenly change your mind about ON? Please ignore chaos13 post and vote for bum and ON. Oh look, somebody is defending WBG by means of deflecting attention away from his lynch. Not only that, they're doing it by asking someone to ignore an analysis on a player. You know scum, just because it's a no flip game doesn't mean you don't have to put effort in.
sinani206
Wherebugsgo
sandroba
Well, all three of those players are green. I can guarantee you all that.
Chaos here attempting to forge a connection between myself and sandroba somehow. Any decent player will know that no such connection exists. He then immediately follows up with this:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 04 2011 00:14 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2011 00:04 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, assuming there are 3 scum, this would mean the mafia kp is 2. 3 died last night. So that means someone died by a way other than mafia kp. This is either the minion shot or the vig shot. I'm going to assume the vig didn't shoot already, but it's possible.
If sinani had been scum, this would reduce the mafia numbers to 2, and thus, their kp to 1. Chances are very very high that sinani was not scum. @_@ Good point. Show nested quote +On September 04 2011 00:12 Palmar wrote:
yeah, chaos13 is the remaining scum.
gogo
Hi Palmar.
When immediately called out on his shitty reasoning, he just says "good point" without explicitly acknowledging that he's dead wrong/being misleading about sinani/me/sandroba. Sinani is not scum.
Then, doesn't actually question Palmar, doesn't defend himself, doesn't do anything to actually substantiate his arguments. Whenever attention goes to chaos, he brushes it off and tries to go under the radar. This happened day 1 when he got two votes as well; he just completely dismissed the votes and tried getting less attention. I figure he probably knew that trying to defend himself would just expose more of his scumminess.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 03 2011 09:10 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2011 09:06 jcarlsoniv wrote:On September 03 2011 09:02 chaos13 wrote:On September 03 2011 08:57 sandroba wrote:
Okay, but you would rather let mafia decide who they lynch? If you don't switch for some of the leading candidates I'm gonna hunt you down if somehow I survive this night. So in other words you think mafia are all on the big(gest) wagons right now? That's not at all what he's saying. When all the votes are this close, if mafia has a roleblocker, they can null a vote and decide who gets lynched. wat. Mafia can block votes?? brb, re-reading OP
Shows a blatant disregard for actually reading the thread/being informed.
He then tries to make a case on me for having apparently shitty reasoning/trying to inform the town of game mechanics. So, if he's town, he's completely stupid, which I find rather unlikely. Instead, I find him probably to be mafia, being purposely misleading. No one misses this many things as a dumb townie.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 03 2011 08:30 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2011 01:28 Jackal58 wrote:
This makes no sense to me. "I think he's town but I'm going to plant a little scummy seed"
Chaos started with the same "Don't Spam My Game or I'll be Pissed Off" post that he did in Werewolves. Ya he was scum there too.
##VOTE: Chaos13 What I meant was that I'm leaning town, but I'm not positive of his alignment. In other words if he's scum, he's doing very well. I just stated it somewhat unclearly. Hello Ace. And for the strongest meta argument I've seen ##unvote
##vote Varpulis
Here's where he replies to both votes on him day 1, but doesn't really do anything about it, just tries to brush off the votes.
1. He doesn't address Jackal's meta argument. If Jackal had it incorrect, I'd think chaos would've actually responded somehow to it.
2. Chaos acknowledges that Ace has voted him for no reason, but doesn't actually provoke Ace or demand Ace provide reasoning. Just "hello Ace."
He then IMMEDIATELY slips into something else, bringing attention away from those votes on himself:
+ Show Spoiler +On September 03 2011 09:10 chaos13 wrote:
And for the strongest meta argument I've seen
##unvote
##vote Varpulis
So, he votes Varpulis for apparently having a shitty meta argument. I'm taking "for the strongest mta argument I've seen" to be sarcasm.
Here is Varp's filter:
Filter Varpulis-what meta?
Either I'm retarded, or Varp never once used meta to accuse anyone of anything.
On the other hand, this brings up a great question. Why would chaos vote varp for having a shitty meta argument (when, in fact, he had no meta argument whatsoever) but would not call out Jackal's meta argument against himself? Did he not want attention brought to it?
I think so. I think the running theme of chaos13 is "don't bring attention to myself."
Don't believe me? Read his filter. Filter Chaos13 Since I get the vibe you don't want attention, chaos, I'm giving it to you. Bring it on, biatch.
Finally, ON. I called him out after the voting was closed, right before the daypost, for not changing his vote. He threw away his vote on Kenpachi similar to how chaos had thrown his vote on Palmar prior to voting Varpulis. The only difference is that ON was actually around to change his vote but didn't change. He was aware that his vote didn't matter, and his argument was nonexistent. This is why I voted ON with the intention of getting people's attention away from sinani+varp, who were clearly town. In the 6 hours I was gone though, no one actually paid attention to my argument.
He didn't really respond at all to me pointing out that he wasted his vote, and he was even there right before the closure of votes. The problem is that now there is more information to go on and make a case against chaos than there is against ON, since chaos has appeared more scummy in the time that ON has not posted.
Here's where I come back to redff and kenpachi. While I think there's a strong chance these guys are linked, I also think that there exists an opposing link between ON and kenpachi. I can't be sure of this, but this is my gut feeling. If ON is mafia, kenpachi is town, and vice versa.
HOWEVER, this does not rule out the possibility that there are 4 mafia, or at least 3 mafia and some independent role we need to kill anyway. I am most sure of chaos, ON, redff, kenpachi, bum in that order. Things may change as people post more, but for now I really think the only person who is not going to come off that list is chaos, so I'm going to vote him.
##unvote
##vote chaos13.
Also upon reading bum's posts I lean town on him. He's giving me a different vibe than I got in XLIV. It doesn't rule him out of being mafia, just something I feel at this particular juncture.
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I just realized that if redff and kenpachi will probably flip the same, and on balance considerations mafia is just 3 players, our three mafia are chaos/ON/bum.
TL;DR from my previous post,
Chaos is scummy because of him shying away from attention, particularly yesterday when votes were put on him.
ON is scummy because he was definitely around during the daypost/right before but he hasn't posted anything, and he didn't change his vote off kenpachi.
Bum is scummy because he narrowly avoided lynch and sandroba claimed RB, meaning he was probably saved by the roleblocker.
Lynch two of them.
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meh
##Unvote
##Vote OriginalName
revive sinani.
On September 03 2011 22:56 sandroba wrote:
redFF you are most likely town because now that I think about it there is no way you could know that the coroner is dead and you would risk being insta counter claimed by the real coroner and thus get lynched if you were mafia. That being said please don't make the same mistake again spamming the thread and getting a townie killed. Read wbg defense. Unless he is the master of deceit, he is very unlikely to be mafia. Please put your vote somewhere more productive.
i didn't get a townie killed, it wasnt a vig shot. the townie died because he posted scummy, not my fault.
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People read this carefully please.
Why would mafia opt to keep bum from being lynched instead of sinani/varp if bum was town? No offense to those 2 but bum is regarded as being a very good player and mafia would totally seize the opportunity of getting rid of him early.
But let's assume they did that to use bum as lynch bait for today. Do you see the bum wagon gaining strengh quickly like it should if mafia's plan was really to lynch bum? No. Instead there is a bunch of players refusing to comment on the issue and others pushing/bandwagoning your lynch. So this isn't what mafia intended to do when they decided to role block me. What's left is that bum really is mafia, which makes the most sense.
Assume redFF is town, that's a safe assumption because mafia wouldn't claim that shit out of the blue most of the time. It's risky, stupid and there is no reward. Btw, bringing back sinani206 might be a good idea for the high priest, base on reading between the lines of redFF strange claim.
Kenpachi is only possibly mafia if I'm wrong on both accounts, which I don't think is likely.
I don't think chaos13 is a good lynch for today, I'm not convince on him being scum just yet, but I apreciate wbg's analysis and he may indeed be onto something. Both bum and ON should be lynched today. Make it happen please.
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On September 03 2011 23:37 Palmar wrote:
Btw, Ace, if you post like whatever you think and know about the game right now, and if you happen to be town, we can probably piece the rest of this together.
I think WGB/Sandroba/redFF/Myself/jcarl are town
I think Kenpachi/Ace/chaos13 are null reads
I think ON/Bum are scum
Thing is, ON/Bum both pressured Kenpachi yesterday, which reduces the chances of him being scum, so if I'm correct it's down to Ace or chaos for scum.
Let's do it.
This is a very good post.
If we lynch ON/bum today and Ace lives to tomorrow, we should probably lynch Ace/chaos.
I wouldn't rule out kenpachi being scum, though. It's still possible, though I guess I give that a pretty small chance because I think redff and kenpachi are probably both town. They just aren't thinking very well.
So, let's leave chaos till tomorrow and lynch bum/ON?
##unvote
##vote OriginalName
I suggest you guys go back and look at OriginalName's posts right near the daypost. Look at his reasoning. I voted this guy yesterday and no one listened, maybe I should actually stick to my reads for once and go with this guy.
Chaos, I think you might possibly be town, but you need to defend yourself or I'll be voting you tomorrow.
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btw if it isnt obvious i kinda took a step back today because my 2 scummiest reads were both town lol.
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EPT
