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Also I want to kill brownbear and vain, take a harder look at Mig and xtfftc.
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I feel like Palmar is town, as is VE. VE I think you should reconsider your vote on palmar. Right now xtfftc and Brownbear stand out to me; I can't really put a definite finger on either but I need to do some more reading and analyzing (on a computer, not an iPhone lol)
I would suggest also that you guys all remember Trotske and Vain. Some of the names from day 1 are being forgotten because of this hardcore tunneling going on. VE I think you're tunnelling too hard on Palmar and are missing other valuable leads we have right now. I say this based off what I read by filtering your posts.
Last things I wish to add/reiterate: I feel like Foolish is town, and he's usually a valuable source of information. If we get confirmation that he was lying about last night then we need to reconsider our stance about him being town. So far, other than the hit claim, foolish has done nothing to stand out, and so I'm inclined to say that he is town.
Palmar is most likely town as well in my opinion. Yeah, he's been tunnelling BB but I think it's rather warranted. BB's vote yesterday was rather scummy, and the post he made about semiactives had the feel of a nontown agenda. He tried throwing some suspicion on "semiactives" and listed 3-4 names, of which were JeeJee, hiro, myself, and Foolish.
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Although, to brownbear: who do you think we should lynch? Please provide your thoughts; I'd feel pretty bad considering you as scum if you're really not, as I was one of the people who voted for Sevryn yesterday.
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I don't know about Dropbear. I'm leaning toward town on DB because his reaction to Palmar's tunneling wasn't particularly scummy to me. His mayor proposal was strange but I don't really think there is very much to dig into that. So, I differ on palmar here.
Yesterday I didn't really look at Brownbear's posts that much, but I found his random accusation of JeeJee very strange. The problem for me was that there wasn't a very clear target other than Sevryn, and that was primarily due to Sevryn's messing up. The pressure vote shit he pulled was really stupid on his part. A couple hours before the vote finalized, when Sevryn finally showed up, I realized he was town since he decided to post again, but it was too late to switch or reanalyze.
Now, in light of JeeJee's hit we have to reconsider things a little. JeeJee was relatively inactive day 1, so mafia must've thought he was a blue. QS7 was probably targeted because he's a vet (correct me if I'm wrong) and he had some good analysis that I suggest you guys look at as well.
This is primarily why I suggest we lynch BB or xtfftc. I need some more time to think, though, and I'll be back in a few hours with some analysis and a vote of my own
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Also, I forgot to mention that I agree with curu and foolish about vain. We all noticed his strange post near the end of day 1; I think he is a suspect as well.
For similar reasons, I think we should keep Trotske in mind. I'll focus on these 4 and our job as town today is to narrow our suspicions down to two lynch targets.
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Oh right and mig obv lol forgot him
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On August 23 2011 00:40 chaoser wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Quote from Palmar] +On August 22 2011 18:12 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2011 18:08 Kurumi wrote:On August 22 2011 17:53 Palmar wrote:
*lurks* start being useful same goes to me, brb re-reading the thread. I think I've made my opinions pretty damn clear, but I've made some fundamental mistakes this game that stop town from considering my opinions as valid. I think I have laid down the most detailed analysis of someone in the thread that isn't completely based on meta, and I stand by my conclusions in that one. I'm fine with lynching Mig actually, there are multiple mafia in this game, and unlike sevryn I'd actually give him a 50% chance of flipping red. I'm much more convinced BB is scum though. I don't know Chaoser's meta so the argument made against him may therefore look weaker to me than it should. Hopefully others who know him will correctly push his lynch if they're right. Just to rehash, this remains my opinion: Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote:BrownBear So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two. There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him: On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote:On August 20 2011 03:21 supersoft wrote:
no. Posts like this make me sad. Put some effort into the game. Palmar/DropBear, I'm starting to believe at least one of you isn't, however this could just as easily be two townies chest-pounding day 1, at which point mafia just sits back and watches the fireworks as one or both get lynched, town wastes time, and they don't have to do jack shit. Point being, Palmar, we know you want us to lynch DropBear. DropBear, we know you want us to not lynch you. Arguing about it just takes up space. So, DropBear, if you want us to not lynch you, name someone who you think would be a better lynch target, and why. If no better alternative presents itself, I'll vote for you over a no-lynch, and you're the only person really with votes currently on you, so I highly recommend giving us some reasons why your neck should be spared. And Palmar... you keep making statements like "nard's totally setting me up he's scum" or "dropbear's scum lets investigate by lynching him" without ANY backup. "Your first post was a question to mods ppl know YOU MUST BE COVERING YOUR TRACKS OMG MAFIA" does not constitute evidence. If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth. But I want to see a better case from you regardless. Finally, DB's plan: in a perfect world, it'd be great, but I don't think an unofficial mayor will have the power necessary to break ties of more than one vote. Also, how do we know this mayor will be pro-town? How do we know you are pro-town? How do we know if ANYONE'S pro-town at this point? We don't really, so I think an unofficial "mayor" will just serve to clog the thread further, will draw med-protects away from people who really need them like blues, and will end up not benefitting town in any major way. I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion. He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other. The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people. Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1.BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point. Next post, after demanding contribution from me: On August 20 2011 06:52 BrownBear wrote:On August 20 2011 04:05 Palmar wrote:On August 20 2011 03:53 BrownBear wrote:
I don't think I have... please quote where you're getting that from.
The only thing I can think of is in my large post, where I said if DB is gonna be active I'm less inclined to lynch him. This means I'm less inclined to lynch DB right now, NOT that I'm "heavily advocating lynching a lurker". Please don't put words into my mouth. Here you go: On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote:
If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth.
Well, I read that as any scummy asshole with a plan is going to get a free bye on day 1, because you want to lynch someone inactive? Or does, the free pass on making plans and blanket statements to avoid the lynch only extend to a specific pool of people? I asked for something of substance and this is what I got? Oh, you.  Ok, something you've pulled out of my reasoning that really just wasn't there. You're saying I want to lynch someone inactive. Not necessarily true. Implied, maybe, but NOT what I said. Again, you really need to stop putting words in people's mouths. What I said there, and what anyone who took 5 seconds to think rationally got out of that sentence before you started spewing shit all over it, is that regardless of what I think about DropBear's alignment (and for the record, I think he's more green than not. Scummy, possibly, but not confirmed scum), I want to see people post more. We're on only 17 pages halfway through the first day, which is kind of sad. I want more content. DropBear's providing it. I'm for lynching any of the semi-actives - that is, the people who are just contributing one liners and sheeping along to do the bare minimum to fly under the radar. Inactives = people who haven't noticed the game's started yet, people in different time zones who are sleeping, or people who don't care about the game. No reason wasting a vote on them - modkills will get them soon enough. The real area where mafia are probably lurking are the semi-actives - the guys who have posted a few times to be able to say "hey, I was here", but haven't contributed anything of substance or worth to the discussion. That doesn't include DropBear right now. At the very least, he's provoking discussion both about his silly fake-mayor plan, and about whether or not he's red. He's defending himself and providing some alternate ideas. (Although, DropBear, "I will do so if it becomes necessary"? Really? That's not doing you any favors, bro). Right now, my list of semi-actives include: wherebugsgo, hiro protagonist, Foolishness, and JeeJee (when you read his posts, they don't contribute nearly as much as they do ask questions that go unanswered). I'm open to adding more to that list tho. So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear.Anyway, long story short: You read things out of my post that didn't exist, those things are the entire basis of your case against me, your case against me sucks, gg, try harder. ##Vote: JeeJee The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same. I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear. The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory. This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active". On August 20 2011 09:55 BrownBear wrote:
It's cute that you tell everyone I'm wrong without explaining exactly why I'm wrong.
lern2backupyouraccusations Interesting that he calls out for other people to back up their accusations, yet your entire case against JeeJee is: So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear. Re-read his posts. Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town. I think we have a great lynch candidate here town. BrownBear is scum
##Vote BrownBear Forgive me if I'm just misreading what you wrote but are you saying BB is suspicious cause he wants to focus on inactives/lurkers because of the statement: Show nested quote +If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. when Navillus' main point day 1 was basically let's focus on killing as many inactives as possible, this will put the fear in them and make them more active and Foolishness' main point for wanting a mig lynch over a sevryn lynch is also about how sevryn will be more active? Show nested quote +It's more about opportunity cost at this point. If Sevryn is mafia we can expect him to be inactive the rest of today, tonight, and tomorrow if we leave him alone. If he's town he will be active and posting his own thoughts. Half way through tomorrow it should be immediately clear what his role is. Also your point mentions one anecdotal example of "that's how I thought as mafia", which I hardly think is strong evidence of anything. Can I ask why you went after BB for one reason while you were silent about the others that also fell into that reason? Why not go after narvillus or foolishness? Harder targets?
I'm sorry, but your last 3 sentences are suspicious to me.
The whole "why aren't you going after this guy for the same reason you're going after that guy" is often used by scum to divert attention from one of their own (or themselves) to another player...
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I'll add palmar to my list of analyses. Time to read his posts again
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Upon rereading palmar's posts, I lean toward town. Palmar was never a proponent of the Sevryn lynch and he made several good (IMO) posts on how it matters not what a person thinks another's alignment is, but the WAY in which they propose their arguments. In this sense, I agree; the manner in which someone responds or posts is actually more important in order to determine their alignment than what they are literally saying.
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On August 23 2011 02:58 Vain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 01:08 Palmar wrote:On August 23 2011 01:04 Curu wrote:On August 23 2011 01:00 Palmar wrote:On August 23 2011 00:59 Curu wrote:On August 23 2011 00:56 Palmar wrote:
Foolishness made some correct observations on day 1. In addition he claimed a shot in a way I don't think Scumishness would've done. However, the medic who saved him should absolutely claim at some point, I've not concluded how and when is the best point to claim. I think claiming before this night would be stupid. Perhaps just as this night ends in case he gets shot? I don't know.
....why are you blue fishing the Medic? Foolishness is in no danger of being lynched at the moment, there are a million scummier people in this Town. Are you being intentionally thick? I see no reason to disbelieve Foolisness's claim, especially with the RBer add-on. If no one gets RBed the rest of the game, he comes under suspicion and Foolishness makes sense as a N1 hit. I see no reason for the Medic to out himself to "confirm" a guy who shouldn't need to be confirmed at this point anyways. Hence "I don't know when and how". The medic should absolutely claim if Foolishness was up for a lynch. Also, if the medic suspected he might be getting shot for some reason, leaving the information with us is good. If I get RB'd tomorrow does that confirm Foolishness? Hell no... I don't even know what you're saying here. But yes, he's not about to be lynched today, thus it's stupid to claim until at first near daybreak tomorrow, maybe even wait another cycle or two. People keep talking about Vain: I think shooting him tonight would be an excellent idea. He hasn't contributed squat to this game and doesn't deserve to live. If you wanna direct vigi's at least come up with more targets. I wouldn't be surprised if there actually was a scum medic. Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 02:44 supersoft wrote:
why don't we lynch RayzorFlash? He's probably gotten coached and his death would give us a lot of information to work with... Can you write out what information we get then? In my opinion that only creates more wifom
So you're saying if you get shot someone will be there to save you anyway?
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On August 23 2011 03:30 xtfftc wrote:
He is saying that if we agree on one single target for a vigilante, mafia would know who to protect.
Nah, let him answer. He's been dodging.
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On August 23 2011 04:11 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 03:38 wherebugsgo wrote:On August 23 2011 03:30 xtfftc wrote:
He is saying that if we agree on one single target for a vigilante, mafia would know who to protect. Nah, let him answer. He's been dodging. If I was mafia and thought that this was a situation in which a fellow member of the mafia might slip, I'd send him a PM. Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 03:48 Jackal58 wrote:On August 23 2011 03:30 xtfftc wrote:
He is saying that if we agree on one single target for a vigilante, mafia would know who to protect. Are you verifying this? I am verifying that it would be wise to consider more than one target when talking about vigilantes, especially now that QuickSilver is dead.
Where in that post did I suggest you were mafia?
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On August 23 2011 04:40 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 03:49 xtfftc wrote:On August 21 2011 03:37 wherebugsgo wrote:On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote:
By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further. wtf? why are you afraid of voting now? Is it because others have labeled you as scum already? I expected supersoft to be superhappy about this but noone else. Sevryn is basically dead, one way or another. No mafia will be dumb enough to protect him anymore and the townies are aware that going after anyone else now would look suspicious. But in case Sevryn gets modkilled, we need to use the opportunity for two town kills. Scum-slip bolded! Scum-slip bolded! Self-admitted scum everyone!
God damn it you posted this before my analysis  I WANTED TO BE FIRST
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I prefer Vain. Every time I filter his posts I think, mmm this guy's lurking...let's wait. But every time he posts anew my scummeter explodes. His last post, "that is correct" is just vague. Nothing this guy has said yet has been productive, either. He dodges everything, every question, every suggestion.
##vote Vain
My analysis of some others whose posts I've read:
Jackal: I strongly feel Jackal is town, but there was one small mistake earlier:
RayzorFlash just made a nice ninja vote on Hiro.
I think that was just an honest slip, as Rayzor made a post earlier but Jackal probably didn't notice it.
Verdict: 95% sure Jackal is town
Pyo is lurking. He has added very little, if anything to discussion, but has somehow stayed out of the limelight. I'm uncertain on him, we need to wait a couple days and poke him a little to force some activity. Verdict: ???
xtfftc has made some "contributions", but his reactions have been really strange. Supersoft made a list once of people who haven't voted, and xtfftc jumped to the conclusion that it was a suspicion list. In the same post, he said he would respond to Quicksilver's accusations:
I will answer to QuickSilver in a separate post because this one is long enough anyway.
but never actually made such a post, semi-copping out with this trash:
If I don't answer QuickSilver, people will claim that I have nothing to say in my defense.
If I don't analyse Sevyrn, I will be accused of not contributing.
I will try to do both as there is enough time before the deadline but this is exactly what Mafia want us to do - discuss a number of targets instead of a single one.
Apologizes meekly to supersoft later, why?
Then there's this gem:
On August 21 2011 03:49 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 03:37 wherebugsgo wrote:On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote:
By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further. wtf? why are you afraid of voting now? Is it because others have labeled you as scum already? I expected supersoft to be superhappy about this but noone else. Sevryn is basically dead, one way or another. No mafia will be dumb enough to protect him anymore and the townies are aware that going after anyone else now would look suspicious. But in case Sevryn gets modkilled, we need to use the opportunity for two town kills.
wat
I prefer vain right now, but xtfftc is worth a hard look. I say this primarily because he, too, has been copping out and dodging. He never did what he said he would (respond to Quicksilver) and he hasn't contributed anything. He also has responded rather strangely at times. He also made the statement about the 2 town lynch while copping out of actually voting for someone. Verdict: I think he's mafia.
(when I called him out on why he's not voting, that's what he said. But, he voted when people said that Sevryn wouldn't be modkilled if we're going to lynch him anyway)
Mig I feel is scum. The reason is primarily because he contradicted himself on the meta arguments, and his response to the accusations has been very strange. Other players have pointed out the scumminess in Mig, I don't think I have to repeat their statements. Filter:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=254174&user=11719
I feel like I'm missing some things...but I'll be back with more soon.
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On August 23 2011 04:33 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 04:29 wherebugsgo wrote:On August 23 2011 04:11 xtfftc wrote:On August 23 2011 03:38 wherebugsgo wrote:On August 23 2011 03:30 xtfftc wrote:
He is saying that if we agree on one single target for a vigilante, mafia would know who to protect. Nah, let him answer. He's been dodging. If I was mafia and thought that this was a situation in which a fellow member of the mafia might slip, I'd send him a PM. On August 23 2011 03:48 Jackal58 wrote:On August 23 2011 03:30 xtfftc wrote:
He is saying that if we agree on one single target for a vigilante, mafia would know who to protect. Are you verifying this? I am verifying that it would be wise to consider more than one target when talking about vigilantes, especially now that QuickSilver is dead. Where in that post did I suggest you were mafia? You didn't, I was responding to the whole page. The hostility in some of the posts is clearly visible, I believe.
It's strange that you chose to post a clarification when I specifically directed a question at Vain.
Yes, my one-liner was provocative. That was intentional. However, Vain was the receiver of my provocation. Why on earth would you step in?
+ Show Spoiler +Only two answers for that: you're scum, or you're incredibly stupid. + Show Spoiler +
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On August 23 2011 04:53 Vain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 04:22 hiro protagonist wrote:On August 23 2011 04:20 Vain wrote:On August 23 2011 03:52 supersoft wrote:funny how xtfftc, vain and rayzorflash defend each other ;-) On August 23 2011 02:58 Vain wrote:On August 23 2011 02:44 supersoft wrote:
why don't we lynch RayzorFlash? He's probably gotten coached and his death would give us a lot of information to work with... Can you write out what information we get then? In my opinion that only creates more wifom On August 23 2011 03:30 xtfftc wrote:
He (Vain) is saying that if we agree on one single target for a vigilante, mafia would know who to protect. @vain: you want an answer to your question? filter me. That is correct I have no idea what your trying to say Vain... He asked me if i meant what xtffc said. To me it was pretty clear but i guess not to everyone. So to be clear: Yes, if we agree on a single target and direct vigilante's to them you have a big chance mafia just protects them. but i think we wasted too much posts on that subject already.
Who are the 3 scummiest people to you, then?
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On August 23 2011 04:57 VisceraEyes wrote:
hiro - I say we take a hard look at VAIN and lynch XTC. I'll even put my vote on it if you'll agree. Vain is the very picture of inactive and is more worth a random bullet some random night than a lynch. We should use our lynch for people we're relatively certain is scum...and your post reads more like you're more certain that XT is scum. So why not lynch scum instead of an inactive that 'makes your scumdar go crazy'...he hasn't posted enough for us to ACTUALLY divine his alignment, let's give him that opportunity...or make him eat a bullet.
was this directed at me?
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On August 23 2011 05:05 VisceraEyes wrote:I think it was directed at hiro, as specified in the post. 
I'm still confused, because hiro already voted for xt. He also never said things about scumdar, vain, etc. etc. whereas I did. I voted for Vain.
It just sounded like you misread the names because my analysis post fits with what you described.
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You're right though, it makes sense to give Vain more time to build up a case, or just let a vigi (if one exists) shoot him. We can lynch Vain later if he survives the night. My gut feeling of scum on Vain has been pushing me to lynch him, but I can see that there exists more objective evidence to support a vote for xtfftc.
## unvote
##vote xtfftc
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On August 23 2011 05:27 hiro protagonist wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 04:56 Jackal58 wrote:On August 23 2011 04:52 VisceraEyes wrote:
hiro, he actually backpedaled on Palmar. Why are you defending Palmar against someone who didn't really find him all that suspicious? Where did Hiro defend Palmar? THANK YOU Jackal. VE, Im gonna say this one more time: STOP. PUTTING. WORDS. IN. MY. MOUTH. If you want me to clarification on something I sad, just say something like "hey hiro, is that a soft defend of Palmer?". Or, how about asking me " yo, mr. Protagonist, what are your thoughts on palmar? do you think he is scum?". that way, I can use my own words, which *surprise!* can be analyzed? your really grinding my gears... when you say something like this: Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 04:57 VisceraEyes wrote:
hiro - I say we take a hard look at VAIN and lynch XTC. I'll even put my vote on it if you'll agree. Vain is the very picture of inactive and is more worth a random bullet some random night than a lynch. We should use our lynch for people we're relatively certain is scum...and your post reads more like you're more certain that XT is scum. So why not lynch scum instead of an inactive that 'makes your scumdar go crazy'...he hasn't posted enough for us to ACTUALLY divine his alignment, let's give him that opportunity...or make him eat a bullet. Its obvious you haven't read the thread because *surprise!* Im already voting for him... -____________________________________________________-
No dude, just look at the two posts above you. Honest mistake, he misread the names of who posted what.
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EPT
