EPTTL Mafia L - Page 170
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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Cyber_Cheese
Australia3615 Posts
On January 22 2012 07:39 VisceraEyes wrote: WBG's town beta is based on drawing logical conclusions based on evidence from checks/flips. His game this game is to jump to conclusions based on meta. This game is NOT like his standard town meta aside from him being jerky toward anyone who questions/suspects him. You're being obtuse Protact, and I think you're better than this. Look again bro. Now you mention it... Has he made ANY lists based off the votes/flips yet? I remember him using them heavily in Steamship... | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On January 22 2012 08:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Now you mention it... Has he made ANY lists based off the votes/flips yet? I remember him using them heavily in Steamship... He drew up one list after the flip last night, and it wasn't based on any flips or information. It was just a list of people he was suspicious of, with no reasons given. Between BM and WBG, tomorrow's lynch should be a piece of cake guys, anyone who's not comfortable lynching BM should have no problem putting their vote on obvScum WBG. This is a good pair to have up, because I feel like they both have a really high chance of flipping scum, and peoples' opinions on them are going to be telling regardless of which flips. | ||
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hiro protagonist
1294 Posts
risk.nuke evantrees bumatlarge risk and evantrees are there simply because of there actions to sway town off the sandro lynch. This is all highly dependent on BM's alignment, but if Im right and BM is town, then they REALLY wanted to keep sandro alive and mis-lynch BM, while also killing Protac. bumatlarge is there cuz hes only really accused one person sense day 1, and has done jack all sense then. now on to BM: Bill, if you do not move your bomb from protac to risk.nuke tonight, like you said you would, then I am strait up lynching you tomorrow. This is what you said you would do before the lynch, and now that its night you change your mind. This screams self preservation over scumhunting. If you think, with 12 hours left in the day that protac would out of no where push for his scumbuddy who was for the most part off the hook for that days lynch, rather than just let a mislynch happen (that would be you), then your scum. The logic cant be more clear. The fact that Protac wants to lynch you tomorrow regardless of the fact that HE WOULD DIE with you if you are telling the truth farther cements that he is most likely town. If you change your bomb placement, then I believe you could be town, and I would rather lynch someone other than you tomorrow. ok? @p4NDemik sorry for rushing off and not saying that sandro was just a goon. I was in a rush  also, I haven't had time to look at your case on SS, but I will check it out when I have the time. sorry.If a medic wants to protect me, thats fine, but I would still keep Foolishness/protac as a higher priority. As long as Im alive I can help scum hunt as well as keep the Mafia roleblocker occupied, but I would still rather it take multiple bullets to kill one of those 2. My second check came back Green, but I wont reveal whom till just before the day post. or if BC wants to mason me, I will tell him, but I think he could chose better people to mason then me so  Remember this post If I DIE! | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On January 22 2012 08:09 VisceraEyes wrote: He drew up one list after the flip last night, and it wasn't based on any flips or information. It was just a list of people he was suspicious of, with no reasons given. Between BM and WBG, tomorrow's lynch should be a piece of cake guys, anyone who's not comfortable lynching BM should have no problem putting their vote on obvScum WBG. This is a good pair to have up, because I feel like they both have a really high chance of flipping scum, and peoples' opinions on them are going to be telling regardless of which flips. I'm actually having problems believing wbg is mafia. Haven't seen something that yells mafia at me except for him being a dick when someone disagrees with him and tunneling like a mad man. He does both as mafia and town imo, however the amount of omgus his a little high. Nevertheless most of his reads are correct I think. I mean he made a list and if you read stuff like the ss/wbg convo he pointed out a lot of reads and I agree with most things he says. fancy conclusion: He's a mad, tunneling townie that is suspicious imo. At least I'm not really comfortable lynching him because I think he's AT MOST a 50% red flip. | ||
p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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Cwave
Netherlands313 Posts
If this is the case, BM lied to me in the pm's. | ||
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Cyber_Cheese
Australia3615 Posts
If you ladies actually feel like helping town, instead of making one big post with all your reads a few seconds before the deadline, interact with us, even if it is night time. In my experiences so far, scum actually tend to do the whole one post thing more often than town, because it allows for questions and the like. | ||
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Cyber_Cheese
Australia3615 Posts
town, because it doesn't allow for | ||
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Jayjay54
Germany2296 Posts
On January 22 2012 08:40 Cwave wrote: If a bodyguard is killed, will it show that he was a bodyguard? If this is the case, BM lied to me in the pm's. On January 14 2012 07:38 flamewheel wrote: Town flip Bodyguard. Red flips Bodyguard in addition to any role he or she may have otherwise. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On January 22 2012 03:47 VisceraEyes wrote: Did drunk or sober Jackal take the shot at L? Sober. You, BC, L and Sandroba were on my short list. I couldn't shoot BC nor do I want to atm. I shot the one I thought I would have the hardest time getting lynched. Drunk Jackal would have shot WBG just for shits and giggles. | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
On January 21 2012 17:03 Foolishness wrote: Update + Show Spoiler + On January 15 2012 12:20 flamewheel wrote: Day 1 Election Vote Tally Votes for Bill Murray (11) Second Macpo Toadesstern rgTheSchworz Jackal58 GiygaS Munk-E EchelonTee Nisani201 Mr. Wiggles Ciryandor kitaman27 Votes for kitaman27 (1) evantrees Votes for BloodyC0bbler (11) First Meapak_Ziphh risk.nuke GGQ zeks Lanaia glurio Cyber_Cheese Foolishness supersoft wherebugsgo VisceraEyes sandroba (didn't actually vote in voting thread) Votes for Protactinium (10) Palmar Adam4167 Kurumi Cwave Liquid`Sheth Jayjay54 Jitsu p4NDemik bumatlarge blahz0r Votes for supersoft (1) Bill Murray Votes for L (2) ~OpZ~ Scamp Votes for wherebugsgo (2) Kenpachi Slardar Votes for VisceraEyes (1) L Votes for Meapak_Ziphh (1) BloodyC0bbler BloodyC0bbler is elected as Mayor and Bill Murray is his new Sheriff. There are a lot of non-voters. Chaosquo is excused for this cycle, but to my count that still leaves... kingjames01 BrownBear igabod (PM'd me saying he wants to be replaced; no reason why) Erandorr (PMed me saying he wants to be replaced; not an acceptable reason why) Protactinium rtgICEMAN Maxella Reminder to myself to update this in the future. Someone update it if I die tonight. Lets analyze the day 1 vote list a little then instead of just posting lists. Because that's what mafia does right foolishness? Stop feigning being useful and show me your strong town play. Everyone was hyping you up early and you are sheeping along with BC atm behind the Proact train. You've posted a few LISTS but no ANALYSIS tonight. Step up and get a spine show me why you have such cred in these parts. Now, down to analysis. Sandroba and L both ran for office but they made pitiful campaigns that got no support. So the true mafia candidates are still running about among the masses folks. Keep that in mind when you are chosing who you are influenced by in this game. So, of the REAL candidates, who is town and who is mafia? So, lets focus on Bill Murray, BloodyC0bbler, and Protactinium: The Case on Bill Murray If there is one thing we need to preface this statement with, it is that Bill Murray is an idiot. Truly his play has been bafflingly bad and shows blatant ignorance of the rules (did not know he could act both as Mad Hatter while simultaneously being Sherriff) and displays bafflingly stupid town play (if that is indeed what he is). Whether Bill Murray is town or not is sadly difficult to discern and will make further deductions difficult because since he is such an idiot Mafia probably would have enjoyed having a chance to put him into one of our elected roles if the alternative was another town member. I am hesitant to go further into analysis on this man because his actions have been explained as that of an idiot in the past to get him off the hook and may be used again. I won't waste time with analysis if my work can be so easily washed away by his horrible meta. Bill Murray you sir are a nuisance. An idiot, a distraction, and a nuisance. But I'm not entirely sure if you are mafia. BUT in the words of the now dead Mafia goon Macpo: "Also, the Foolishness Bill murray candidacy sounds too big to be mafia-ish. There are claiming their "alliance" too loud, it would be way too risky for them if they were mafia, as everyone focuses on them. So, paradoxically, I would trust them more (or Bill Murray more precisely) as mayor. So I guess I will vote either Mr Wriggles, or Bill Murray; Mr Wriggles being more rational and precise in his analysis (but maybe it's a game) while Bill Murray is more a safety choice (with our very limited information, I feel it's rational to assume that he can't be mafia). But these are only very limited hypotheses and assumptions. How do you guys feel about that?" This is all in among his large first post of the game. Soft support of Bill in his first post of the game. You may say: "p4NDemik his vote for him is suspicious yes, why does this make it more suspicious?" I say to you this deflection of what is mafia and what isn't mafia play feels like a move to get suspicion off of an actual mafia play. Town look for pro-town agenda among their candidate and don't make a candidate seem legitimate by arguing this way. Mafia will try to downplay their strategy. Mafia points for this. Chances BM is mafia? 80-90%. Also paints Foolishness in a horrible light if Bill is mafia then this entire candidacy was a mafia ploy and Foolishness is as red as the setting sun. Analysis of BC and Protact coming soon but this is getting super long so I want to keep each part digestable. Read up townies! | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On January 22 2012 07:39 VisceraEyes wrote: WBG's town beta is based on drawing logical conclusions based on evidence from checks/flips. His game this game is to jump to conclusions based on meta. This game is NOT like his standard town meta aside from him being jerky toward anyone who questions/suspects him. You're being obtuse Protact, and I think you're better than this. Look again bro. This is probably the most ironic fucking thing in the entire thread. You accuse me of solely jumping to conclusions based on meta, whereas for me you do the exact same thing. So it's not okay for me to try to use meta to pin people, but it's completely fine for you to base a case entirely on meta? Yeah, that's not completely contradictory or anything... The sad part is I actually believe you're town. | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
Do not let this slimeball deceive you. He has been piggy backing off of the success of Protactinium for most of this game and has not acheived much in the town's interests. The alignment of much of his electorate remains in doubt. His lengthy posts make going through his filter quite a pain, and can serve as excellent cover both to make him seem pro-town, and gain sway among the town. From all I have heard his open deception of town goals is something he is clearly capable of and makes determining if he is town or mafia of utmost concern right now considering he was elected into the role of mayor. In the coming days he will only grow more powerful both in pure vote power and in swaying the vote. So we need to focus hard and analyze this man before anything else. Town. Do not blindly trust your mayor without considering where he may be aligned first. Now lets get down to it: BC starts the game by running for mayor. This is something that I've heard he almost always does, which does not surprise due to his particular disposition for deceit and/or justified persuasion of the masses. He however does not have a lynch target for most of the first day, and instead focus' a lot of his time to claim that he is mason and insinuate that other masons should come forward. What are his motives for this? He claims that this is a move to promote discussion and to take the wind out of the sails of a role he perceives as detrimental for town. What are the possible alterior motives (and more devious motives) for this action? BloodyC0bbler is the biggest source of chaos during day 1. Something that everyone agrees is in the mafia's best interest. Claims are said to usually be best made as a last resort when you need to avert something bad happening to town. Claims shouldn't be made to further your own interests like BC's. Take hiro's claim last day cycle - he came out when he was worried we may be letting a red off the hook. An honorable action. BC parlay's his role into power - even if he doesn't blantantly run on a campaign hinged on his role he made it an issue and it helped him. Now that BC was on his way to being elected what does he do? He has been unsure of who to lynch for some time, he doesn't want to commit to any real reads like Protactinium does for commiting to a read could possibly be used against him later on. He stays undecided but later decides that he will use his newfound power to lynch Palmar at the behest of someone who LATER TURNED OUT TO BE MAFIA in sandroba. Yeah remember that? Our fine mayor made himself a pawn of the mafia and refused to make stands day 1. He also throws in a worthless vote for Meapak to boot. Great protown vote BC. I'm so not fucking proud of you so far at all. Also among the day 1 posts he makes: On January 15 2012 04:57 BloodyC0bbler wrote: unlikely sandro. In a game with meapak, myself, BM, incog, and L would make far better "horses" than sandro We are all higher profile players and at least of the 5, 3 of us have decent scum games. Sandro has less experience in both town and mafia compared to the rest of us. Great, BC not only is duped by sandro into voting for Palmar in exchange for his vote he defended him day 1 as well. More mafia points. Now we have even more details of the deal in case you guys have all forgotten: On January 15 2012 06:10 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I agreed if elected to not day 1 lynch foolishness or incog who I have scum reads on. Instead I will choose someone else. Thats right mafia sandroba was bargaining for protact and foolishness' lives. The very people BC is so snug in the bed with atm. BC is adamant about their pro-town status but has not brought this out as the MAJOR concern it should be. Even more mafia points for BC. BC your lack of suspicion on these people is either horribly negligent as town or looking out for your mafia buddies. Night 1 On to his acceptance speech: On January 15 2012 12:15 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Apparently I got mayor (was requested to send in my lynch choice) Palmar was my pick Don't look so underwhelmed you only put 4 pages of your 8 page filter into getting mayor. Thats right half of BC's posts were made on day 1 in the interest of getting himself mayor. Grand. Then immediately a switch goes off and he's making either A) useless short posts, or B) defense posts of his failed lynch of palmar or his actions creating the pro-mafia whirlwind that was mason talk. BC's first major attack of night 1 is on, guess who? kingjames01! That's right, BC attacks kingjames before kingjames goes ballistic on myself, daring BC to do this, daring BC to do that (which I might add BC never actually caved in to his wishes). Check out his Day 2 attack on Day 3's townie lynch here. Unbelievable. Unfathomable. Unpredictable!!!!! Another shady move from our beloved mayor. Moreover, WHY did he make this attack? Because he was attacked mostly. I can't remember what you guys call this. OMGUS? Yeah this is a form of that. Erstwhile at this time BC is still distancing himself from Protactinium leading up until the moment before the reveal of night 1's events. Then poof! Ciryandor has been killed! Protactinium has been cleared of any suspicion despite not actuallly getting to lead a lynch against him. Yes, he ran initially on the goal of getting him lynched, but he never lead Ciry to death himself. So reconsider how much credit you are giving Proact because of this mafia death. It was a vigilante and it was unexpected for mafia. Now on to Day 2: Day 2 starts, and BC is mostly useless. Lots of short posts until we come upon this post. BC doesn't out and out make a case but he takes his buddy Foolishness's idea of lynching Macpo and runs with it. On the condition that he doesn't say "you all are stupidly tunneling sandro, go after just Macpo this case is good!" He includes the option of GGQ whose allegiance is yet to be determined and could be a way of hedging his bets. [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13168154Next post[/url] he makes he attacks Jackal our vigilante de jour, unsuccessfully garnering any support. More posts defending his stance and defending Proact and sandroba. He [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13168552]piggybacks on Foolishness' analysis post[/url] but isn't presenting great ideas on his own so far. He is still pushing Jackal but is starting to realize the case against Macpo is gaining headway and starts to consider this as a valid vote. He never makes any serious push for Macpo. Now to the rest of the game Major inactivity for BC. He announces he was masoning Protact yesterday. We all know how yesterday went. BC pushes long time for BM + kingjames as the lynches. Last few hours switches off to sandroba (who is going to get modkilled) because he wants to save his lovely Protact. The fact he pushed for the death of sandroba is the only even slightly town thing he has done all game but my friends this isn't a town action at all as he gets us to waste a vote on a player who is going to be mod-killed anyways! Summary BC has done nothing to actually benefit town. He frateranizes with sandroba, lynches Palmar at sandroba's behest and does not raise suspicions against those sandroba bargained for him NOT TO KILL (protact and foolishness). He in fact is in tight allegiance with these players. His actions are not those of town and I am convinced we have a mafia mayor. We are an hour from the beginning of day 4. I will be campaigning full-on for this man's death. IF YOU DO NOTHING ELSE READ THE SUMMARY. I know this is a long ass post but BC his incredibly suspicios right now. More so than BM. Our power players right now are very suspicious right now people. But this one absolutely must go ASAP. | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On January 22 2012 08:40 Cwave wrote: If a bodyguard is killed, will it show that he was a bodyguard? Yes. | ||
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On January 21 2012 21:30 jaj22 wrote: If Bill is a Mad Hatter, he could remove a bomb, plant a bomb and jail someone in one night, correct? Yes. | ||
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Cyber_Cheese
Australia3615 Posts
On January 15 2012 00:41 L wrote: 1) There are a LOT of mayoral candidates. Many of them seem to have prepared their candidacy prior to the game. Candidacies prepared prior to the game don't give us any information (insofar as submitting candidature goes) because they are done in the absence of role or alignment information. The surplus of candidates as well as the pre-prepared quality of many indicates that candidacy itself is devalued in this game. to dismiss this On January 13 2012 14:36 Foolishness wrote: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://steinertalent.com/media/uploads/btb_bill_murray/images/Bill_Murray_old.jpg) This is my official campaign post! It is all very simple! No, I am not running for office. My campaign is based around voting for the one and only Bill Murray! Let's face it, there are many people (L) who are going to run on the basis of lynching Bill Murray. Do we want to make such a rash decision this early in the game? Time has shown that such policy lynches are just a distraction from our true purpose of scum hunting. In order to save Bill Murray from such an easy day 1 lynch, I propose we save him by putting him in office. Now before you go on making propositions that I have just smoked a pound of weed, consider the situation our beloved Bill Murray is in. As his first game back, we know for sure he's going to be top notch. This is his chance to prove to the old members that he's changed and proved to the new members that he's a respectable player. Thus we can expect him to bust out his A+ game. He knows that if he nails a few mafia this game he'll have turned from village idiot into village hottie. Who would you rather have in office? Someone like Bill Murray who is probably spending 14 hours a day figuring out who is mafia or someone like kitaman27 or bumatlarge who will just put forth the same normal effort we'd expect from an elected official? Bill Murray is the real deal, and we know he'll be the real deal. Who knows how much effort Cyber_Cheese really wants to put in this game. Definitely not as much as Bill Murray will! A vote for Bill Murray is a vote for the town! Now what if our esteemed actor turns out to be mafia? Don't worry, as a proven scumhunter, I will dedicate enormous amounts of my time to making sure Bill Murray is indeed town. And he has a lot of games under his belt for comparison. Of course I will also be doing my usual scumhunting, so do not fret. But we can be sure that Bill Murray will be posting frequently (hopefully not too much) and will be active in his duties, especially given what I've said above. Is kitaman only going to make 2 posts a day if he gets elected in? Maybe. Will Bill Murray? No of course not. And we all know that the more someone posts the more likely their true colors show. If Bill Murray turns out to be mafia it shouldn't be long before it becomes obvious. If he's not, we got an easily confirmed innocent in office who at the very least will make the entire mafia team facepalm. And a mafia team with their palms on their faces will be unable to type. ![[image loading]](http://unrealitymag.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Bill_Murray_you.jpg) You can make the right choice! Vote Bill Murray! + Show Spoiler + Yes I'm 100% serious | ||
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vaderseven
United States2556 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On January 14 2012 16:46 sandroba wrote: I was walking down the street one day and I suddenly a foul scent hit my nose. I was like what the shit, where the fuck is this coming from? Did I just step on human fesses or what? After checking my feet and realizing it was clean I looked around and spotted a horrid looking creature that dropped 2 terrible posts in the begging of a game then was never heard of again. It was ciryandor. Protact had warned me about his unpleasant presence. Right then I decided I would rid the world of such disturbing annoyance and thus I hit him repeatedly over the head with my grandma's shoes. He finally succumbed, bored into oblivion. I felt victorious after checking my grandma's shoes and realizing a crimson taint had soaked them. Life was good. Being mayor made me proud. The whole idea of being elected to kill some random dude and being able to single handedly execute it was exciting. I stretched out my arm and an eagle landed on it. Fuck yes I'm a boss. I just want to remind people that this is probably the fucking funniest thing I've ever read while going back through people's posts. I laughed so hard at this LOL. Anyway, something funny that struck me from sandro's filter is this: On January 18 2012 03:27 sandroba wrote: Although I'm not entirely convinced that macpo is sure mafia due to sheer terribleness of his insane rambling, we still have to get rid of him at some point due to the amount of players suspicious of him. This talk about no opposition to his lynch is in no way indicative of him being innocent. Mafia is not likely to openly oppose a lynch that has so much support and so far only 28 out of 44 voters have cast their votes. Still I feel way more confident lynching GGQ or L. Double lynch needs at least 9 more votes to go through and I'd really like to get at least one red killed today. Like, all the people sandro wants to lynch, I'm pretty sure, were scum; most likely scum that he felt he could not defend any longer. This is actually what sandro does as scum; he busses people like hell because he thinks they are super obvious scum to everyone. Macpo he could not defend because Foolish/Protact attacked him. L he could not defend because everyone saw he was playing the same way he played in Responsibility. Is it a stretch to say that he could not defend GGQ either? I don't think so. Also note how he tells myself, super, and toad to "get off my balls." This makes all 3 of us look far more town. On January 17 2012 01:26 sandroba wrote: @BC LOL man you could have redacted a few parts from that shit that I don't even remember talking about. WBG, supersoft and toadstem need to get off my balls. My weekends are pretty busy and I did my best with the little time I had. I don't even know why the fuck you are calling me mafia on the first place. As for who I think is mafia I got GGQ, Jackal and rgtICEMAN. I'm going to read dead guy's filters before I choose which one to push today, but they could very easily be all mafia. Brb. Also note how he later rescinds his opinion about Jackal (he flips from day 1 liking Jackal to not liking Jackal to being unsure) On January 17 2012 03:28 sandroba wrote: I'm not quite sure on him because jackal is freaking jackal, but last time he was town i could tell right away and he did put in some effort and got killed early on. He just seems lazy and jumping on convenient stuff and he is back to his usual useless one line posting which he used to do as both alignments. He's either made a step back or he is scum this game, I need more to decide accurately, but I'm leaning scum on him atm. whereas for L, GGQ, Macpo, and Ciryandor he's just like "fuck man this guy's scum he smells fucking bad kill him" The only exception is when Macpo is seriously close to dying, then he sheds some doubt on the lynch. Meapak, I think, has been correct about GGQ this entire time, but just hasn't been going about it properly. Of course, our job is easy; if GGQ is not scum, I'm almost 100% sure Meapak is, because that's the only target he's tunneled. The reason I say this is because Meapak has had several days to contribute and yet he's always been focused on tunneling GGQ. Normally I'd be uncomfortable with aligning flips like that, and certainly if GGQ is town it'd be difficult to lynch Meapak (since there are things in Meapak's filter, notably what he said about L, that make him look town) but I think we have to consider the big picture instead of letting little things prevent us from making hard decisions. | ||
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