EPTTL Mafia XLIII
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syllogism
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On August 02 2011 09:20 chaos13 wrote: DrH has the right idea here. Yes, confirmed townies are excellent. However, mafia can easily fake claim a role like medic or vig, and then we would need to waste our DT checks in order to confirm those claims. Not only that, but we have no idea who the day vig actually is. If it's in the hands of a weaker player, that could lead to complete and utter disaster. Having one player coordinate all the actions of the blues is never a good thing. There is far too much room for error in such a situation, especially since mafia are able to PM and influence the game as well. Ultimately, however, it is up to the individuals with the roles to decide what to do. Discussion about this is very good, but I would rather not waste all day with it. Just something to keep in mind if we're still arguing about it in 24 hours. Vigis, because there are probably a lot of you in here: Do not shoot unless it is at confirmed scum. If you feel you must shoot anyway, take out lurkers and liars. This sort of common sense is all too often ignored, and results in dead town. Even take DT claims with a grain of salt. If analysis points to a player being town when a claimed check has shown red, proceed with caution. It could be a miller or a scum's fake claim in order to waste a vig shot, especially if the claimed DT player has been under suspicion. No one is confirmed scum until they flip. You even go on to say red checks can be millers or the DT fake claiming; vigs should be shooting at people they believe are likely scum. Overall I'm not a huge fan of this post as you joined the anti-sandroba plan wagon quite late, you cover all the angles without really taking a strong position and the part about DTs fake claiming feels a bit forced. | ||
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On August 03 2011 04:49 Lucidity wrote: Lol dude wtf? I'm struggling to find any non-scum motive for wanting such a claim. Could you provide me with one? And you're focused on maintaining your appearance as an active townie instead of hunting scum? Good stuff. Mig's going crazy at people for not providing great posts on IRC, yet he's not doing what he's hounding others to do? Scum often employ such strategies. What's the dealio, yo? Yes, the famous scum strategy of trying to get people to be active when the thread is basically dead. He has been quite active in both PMs and in thread, comparatively. | ||
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On August 03 2011 04:57 youngminii wrote: syllogism you have been nonstop defending Mig in IRC and evidently this thread too. You've been doing it the entire time I was arguing with Mig. The ENTIRE time. Mig pays you no attention but you keep backing him up on literally everything. Why? Haha non-stop defending? The only thing I've defended him against is your awful logic | ||
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##vote Varpulis | ||
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Err yes, unless you think his plan was to bus his teammate 1, shoot a random and not use the other shot just so he could get town cred. It's a completely ridiculous scenario | ||
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On August 05 2011 07:13 redFF wrote: wtf is it with new players and mass claiming lol. He isn't confirmed town so we will not be mass claiming to him. It's a game of probabilities and this is a semi-closed setup. If we put the likelihood of mig being town at, say, 90+%, mass claiming could be worthwhile. He doesn't have to be 100% confirmed. | ||
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Still, Jeejee looks like the better lynch right now. Initially I thought that his drazerk wagon attempt begun too late for it to be a scum attempting to save his team mate (varpulis already had 8 votes and the other alternative only 2), but he actually defended him quite early. Ace is obviously correct in that defending someone isn't a scum tell, but in this context I still consider it something a scum is more likely to do. Jeejee posted his defense soon after Varpulis posted his own and ignored it, despite the defense itself looking quite bad ("I'm fairly sure that i'm not scum, unless I have a serious problem with reading pms". ##vote Jeejee If there are still blues yet to roleclaim to mig, you should do it now. | ||
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##vote Munk-E | ||
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On August 08 2011 04:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote: 5 vets is stupid , that gives mafia a 1/4th chance of failing on a hit lol Lucidity also just claimed vet on irc for additional hilarity. | ||
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##vote Youngminii | ||
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On August 09 2011 18:16 Barundar wrote: syllo whats your thoughts on todays lynch? I stopped taking notes a while ago, but I still find it unlikely the scum team is Jeejee/Varp/2 newer players, while our vets are BC,Mig,DrH,me,Munk-e. I don't care how much host claims it was RNGed, it just looks so unbalanced. If one of the original 4 vets is fake claiming, it's BC. The hits have been awful, however, which does somewhat suggest that a weaker scum team is a possibility. I don't understand why Lucid would have claimed vet when we were about to lynch Munk-e, who he as scum would know was going to flip vet. Could just be poor play, but that's pushing it. I would lynch Chaos13 today. Sevryn is a tempting alternative, in the light of the Trotsky hit, but he has a few posts that look towny to me when made by a newer player. Following that, I think we have to deal with the vet issue. Would Ver/Qatol really approve a setup with 6 vets, even with 2 RBs? | ||
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Jeejee/BC/Varpulis/newer player Following that assumption, they would have realized early on, as I did, that at least one out of Jeejee/BC has to be mafia and would get lynched. BC didn't like varpulis lynch day 1 and bussing jeejee on day 2 when people were already pushing for his lynch isn't particularly meaningful. Claiming vet also makes sense because he had to have an excuse for staying alive so long and he didn't know there would be this many vet claims. Despite knowing about the plan, he couldn't really kill DrH as that would make him look incredibly suspicious, especially if he kept staying alive on the following days. Similarly, killing mig would indicate it was someone who knew about the plan. That still left the possibility for killing someone else, but in that position it made somesense for him to waste a KP to make himself look better. | ||
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On August 09 2011 19:41 Ace wrote: Thats why hosts shouldn't try to "balance" Mafia teams. If it's known that BC or JeeJee have to be Mafia then the game becomes pretty easy to figure out. Better off randomizing teams and letting the chips fall. Even a team of newbies can win assuming they aren't stupid. Experience doesn't matter that much. I completely agree, but as long as they don't, I'm not going to ignore it | ||
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Since it's you saying it, I'm actually willing to believe. The above may somewhat be me tunnelling BC as I'd rather not be fooled by him than lose to two newer players. | ||
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On August 10 2011 13:27 Curu wrote: syllo though you really need to come in and play to the potential I know you can. Don't make me look bad for sticking my neck out for you like this. chaos's defense was terrible, mostly for these two points: I already demonstrated that based on the actions I'm literally the least likely person remaining to be scum. Unfortunately we've mostly some not-so-bright individuals remaining. | ||
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On August 10 2011 17:32 Lucidity wrote: Basically everyone in that Vet circle has the same defence as you? But there is definitely one scum in there. So . . . No, I'm the only person in the game, Mig aside, who knew he was a vet before the N1 hit took place | ||
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On August 10 2011 17:55 Barundar wrote: Most of the arguments that apply to you apply to BC as well syllo. Anyways gonna go chill for a bit. Some do, the most important one doesn't, and I didn't spend whole day attempting to deflect the lynch from mafia. Unless I've completely overestimated BC, his town play can't be this awful. He has been against two of the mafia lynches so far and pretty much concluded that chaos13 can't be mafia because he has been lurking and not defending himself or something. | ||
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On August 11 2011 06:41 Kenpachi wrote: so evil. It was a coincidence. im also confident in my Lylo (because i was there many times) We don't want you around because you are one of the few people remaining who can't be read and Sandroba did little to make himself look day 1. I don't believe in coincidences; day post timing isn't conclusive, indeed smart mafia would realize that, but this mafia team hasn't been smart so far | ||
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Kenpachi - Sandroba didn't play very long, but look at his posts on day 1. There is only a single post that relates to scum hunting, and that is a very weak FoS towards Varpulis, in which he even states he doesn't have a problem with his posts. Further, later he goes on to say on skype he thinks Varpulis just a null read / dumb (?). Kenpachi hasn't done anything either, except vote along with every wagon. I'm not sure where his confidence that the game will end before lylo stems from when he obviously isn't putting much effort into the game. One of the few players who hasn't been active on irc. Sevryn - Another person who hasn't posted enough to get a good read on and also hasn't been active on irc. I'm getting a townie vibe from some of the posts though, so I'd rather lynch Kenpachi first. BC - I don't actually want to lynch him anymore, because I now realize we should lynch based on analysis rather than solely based on what we guess the role setup is. We know for sure there are at least 5 vets, so 6 isn't completely out of the question. His posts and irc behaviour look towny to me, I think I was tunnelling him a bit due to his case against me and the unwillingness to believe there could be 6 vets. If he was mafia, I don't see him offering that 1:1 trade yesterday, even to postpone chaos13 lynch, because if I had been lynched, he would have been lynched on the day after and then naturally chaos13. I'm only including him in the lynch chain in case some of you still aren't convinced; I'd rather not have him around as the autolynch if we get to LYLO. Can be replaced with any other vet of your choice, as long as you accompany analysis to support the lynch. If the game isn't over by this point, things get more difficult to predict, so I'm not even going to try. Just lynch based on who is alive and who has done the least to make himself look towny. I'm suggesting this approach because it don't think any of the remaining players have made any apparent scum slips, so a simple process of elimination works better. I could do a list of almost-confirmed-townies, but doing it this early would just help scum with their hits. | ||
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On August 11 2011 18:14 Barundar wrote: Just wanna point out this is wifom and goes for BC as well. It's not, it's typical scum play. Wifom is such an overused term over here | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10694371 At that point jeejee already had like 10+ votes, had self voted and was the unanimous lynch. That's a lot of effort from kenpachi to analyze someone who was going to be lynched anyway... | ||
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On August 13 2011 02:48 Kenpachi wrote: btw syllo, i do pull off analysis when i feel like it. :l Majority lynch really fucked me over I know, it was just the timing; ie. when it didn't matter at all | ||
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