I find it curious day post got posted right when Kenpachi woke up, after being delayed so long. He is definitely among the people who need to die before LYLO

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 10 2011 21:40 GMT

#1044

He was also around for day 3 and day 4 posts, both of which weren't posted until mafia had submitted their actions.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 10 2011 21:43 GMT

#1046

On August 11 2011 06:41 Kenpachi wrote:

Show nested quote +

so evil. It was a coincidence. im also confident in my Lylo (because i was there many times)

We don't want you around because you are one of the few people remaining who can't be read and Sandroba did little to make himself look day 1.

I don't believe in coincidences; day post timing isn't conclusive, indeed smart mafia would realize that, but this mafia team hasn't been smart so far

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 10 2011 21:43 GMT

#1047

EBWOP: "make himself look town"

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 11 2011 08:42 GMT

#1055

How about this order: Kenpachi, Sevryn, BC

Kenpachi - Sandroba didn't play very long, but look at his posts on day 1. There is only a single post that relates to scum hunting, and that is a very weak FoS towards Varpulis, in which he even states he doesn't have a problem with his posts. Further, later he goes on to say on skype he thinks Varpulis just a null read / dumb (?). Kenpachi hasn't done anything either, except vote along with every wagon. I'm not sure where his confidence that the game will end before lylo stems from when he obviously isn't putting much effort into the game. One of the few players who hasn't been active on irc.

Sevryn - Another person who hasn't posted enough to get a good read on and also hasn't been active on irc. I'm getting a townie vibe from some of the posts though, so I'd rather lynch Kenpachi first.

BC - I don't actually want to lynch him anymore, because I now realize we should lynch based on analysis rather than solely based on what we guess the role setup is. We know for sure there are at least 5 vets, so 6 isn't completely out of the question. His posts and irc behaviour look towny to me, I think I was tunnelling him a bit due to his case against me and the unwillingness to believe there could be 6 vets. If he was mafia, I don't see him offering that 1:1 trade yesterday, even to postpone chaos13 lynch, because if I had been lynched, he would have been lynched on the day after and then naturally chaos13. I'm only including him in the lynch chain in case some of you still aren't convinced; I'd rather not have him around as the autolynch if we get to LYLO. Can be replaced with any other vet of your choice, as long as you accompany analysis to support the lynch.

If the game isn't over by this point, things get more difficult to predict, so I'm not even going to try. Just lynch based on who is alive and who has done the least to make himself look towny. I'm suggesting this approach because it don't think any of the remaining players have made any apparent scum slips, so a simple process of elimination works better. I could do a list of almost-confirmed-townies, but doing it this early would just help scum with their hits.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 11 2011 08:46 GMT

#1056

Oh and regarding sevryn; I've a hard time believing they were desperate enough to save varpulis to have 3 of their own vote in a block on a lynch candidate that didn't really have meaningful support from town

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 11 2011 09:19 GMT

#1058

On August 11 2011 18:14 Barundar wrote:

Show nested quote +

Just wanna point out this is wifom and goes for BC as well.

It's not, it's typical scum play. Wifom is such an overused term over here

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 11 2011 09:20 GMT

#1059

That is not to say scum can't all vote for drazerk, it's just that it's more likely that they did not. Obviously you aren't deciding whether to lynch someone based on something that minute, but it's one thing you should take into consideration

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 11 2011 09:23 GMT

#1060

I mean if we go down that road with wifom, we can literally apply the term to everything players do. The fact of the mater remains is that some actions are more likely than others. You might have a point if the TL scum play was good enough and they similarly thought townies were good enough to apply that line of thinking. That's only when this kind of levelling wars really start to become relevant.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 11 2011 09:35 GMT

#1062

No it's not, it's typical scum play to spread votes like that, especially considering they weren't in a position to save Varpulis. If the vote had been closer, it would have been more likely that they were stacked on drazerk. Generally wifom only applies to late game situations, especially lylo. Until then, risking optimal (ie. logical) play to mislead town rarely happens. Further, I'm not saying Sevryn should be ignored based on that, it's just one thing you should take into account, as I said.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 11 2011 14:57 GMT

#1064

Well now you are only taking one thing into consideration, and based on other things that have occurred, and analysis of his posts and irc behaviour, I think he is less likely to be scum than the other two. Maybe Kenpachi hasn't been particularly scummy (this isn't actually correct as hardcore lurking is scummy), but Sandroba's play on day 1 was, in retrospect, quite curious if you know how he usually plays. Weak FoSs/pressure votes aren't his style. He promised a "huge case" on our skype chat, right before he left the game (this obviously is coincidental, just mentioning it because we never got the case), but didn't mention who the case was going to be about. Me and mig thought it was peculiar, but since he left the game we kind of forgot it.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 11 2011 15:25 GMT

#1066

If the mafia was gullible enough to believe that BC and DrH are medics, they had to take them out before their rb dies or autolose. Roleblocking one and shooting the other makes perfect sense in that situation; indeed, the whole plan was to get them to waste their shot like that. Of course it's possible that they wasted a shot intentionally to gain town cred, but I don't think we can read too much into that either way.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 11 2011 15:54 GMT

#1068

Kenpachi is still lurking, claimed that he his "confident in his LYLO play" and then proceeded to say we won't get to LYLO so we don't have to lynch him or something. You were suspicious of him day 1, what has changed? We've two players who we can't read well, and I think we can afford to take them out first. Then we can look into the vets/remaining players and lynch. You appear to be willing to lynch based on role speculation rather than analysis, which I now disagree with.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 12 2011 08:18 GMT

#1081

This town is starting to really tilt me. Lynch kenpachi. Lucidity is a ridiculously bad lynch. Why would mafia claim vet when there were 5 vet claims and we were about to lynch one (munk-e)? If you say WIFOM, I'll strangle you; some actions in mafia are always more likely than others. The only question is whether we can accurately estimate which is more probable. In this case it's trivial; lucidity is almost certainly town and a vet.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 12 2011 13:39 GMT

#1088

Lucidity pointed out Kenpachi actually made one effort post in the game, which seems quite uncharacteristic of him. His case against Jeejee; I missed it because it was in spoiler tags

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10694371

At that point jeejee already had like 10+ votes, had self voted and was the unanimous lynch. That's a lot of effort from kenpachi to analyze someone who was going to be lynched anyway...

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 12 2011 17:51 GMT

#1114

On August 13 2011 02:48 Kenpachi wrote:
btw syllo, i do pull off analysis when i feel like it. :l
Majority lynch really fucked me over

I know, it was just the timing; ie. when it didn't matter at all

Prev 1 2 3 All

Please or register to reply.

Live Events Refresh