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Paranoid Mafia
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RebirthOfLeGenD
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also, GUARDIAN | ||
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On June 30 2011 12:59 GMarshal wrote: Actually RoL, do you mind taking my spot? I have a bunch of RL crap that just cropped up, and I don't know how much focus I can bring to this game. Sorry iGrok, I was looking forward to it. sure, np. back in the fray I suppose! | ||
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On July 01 2011 13:28 sinani206 wrote: 1. deconduo 2. sinani206 3. RebirthOfLeGenD 4. VisceraEyes 5. Sandroba 6. Pyo 7. supersoft 8. nard 9. Misder Updated. Edit: Fuck, sorry I didn't mean to edit this post, I meant to copy it into a new post. | ||
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On July 01 2011 21:39 deconduo wrote: Oh and vig shouldn't shoot tonight, for obvious reasons  Scummiest post in thread so far btw. | ||
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On July 01 2011 13:28 sinani206 wrote: 1. deconduo 2. sinani206 3. RebirthOfLeGenD 4. VisceraEyes 5. Sandroba 6. Pyo 7. supersoft 8. nard 9. Misder Updated. | ||
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On July 02 2011 01:09 iGrok wrote: RoL gets a warning. No more editing this game, next person will be modkilled. Yeah, sorry about that. I was trying to edit and copy what was written and accidentally clicked submit thinking I quoted. | ||
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On July 03 2011 02:41 Pyo wrote: It doesn't make much sense for mafia to go after town - vigi is a double edge sword so it seems unlikely that they'd actively hunt for him. They are much better off trying to eliminate sane DT's. That's why town lynching a DT makes very little sense. Lynching a townie is by far the safest play because if we happen to target the vigi, he can just claim (mafia can't false claim without exposing themselves to the vigi). And if we decrease the number of townies, we increase the chance that the vigi will be able to make his shot count. Remember that the vigi has three possible town targets, while he has 4 possible DT targets. Reducing claimed towns is obviously the better choice until the vigi has used his shot or we confirmed who the mafia claiming VT is. I agree with this plan, and I think we should vote for VisceraEyes. He hasn't been too active and he had a post that seemed pretty scummy to me. On top of that it does make much more sense for us to just get rid of the VT's first, since the mafia has to kill the DT's because they pose more of a threat to mafia. Currently we know 1/4 of both the town and DT list scum, but we also know that the town list has a vigilante who can confirm himself tonight, which means lynching townies is a 1/3, and then the vigi would have a 50% chance to kill a mafia tonight. On that note, assuming Sinani is NOT lying and misder appeared town, our best action is to kill me, VisceraEyes, or Pyo. Since Pyo suggested this plan, I know I am not scum and VisceraEyes looks bad from his one post I have read in this thread, I'd say lynch him. Then let the vigi shoot tonight at whoever he wants. There are two ways to work this out. If the vig hits the mafia or we lynch the mafia, rest of the group is confirmed. In the worst case scenario We end up tomorrow with one vig and one mafia left, at which point we can focus on the DT list and narrow them down knowing who the one confirmed mafia is in the VT group. With that being said ##Vote: VisceraEyes | ||
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##Vote: Fishball | ||
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I am the vigilante. | ||
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On July 04 2011 02:17 Pyo wrote: I still think that Misder is the mafia, but mafia last second vote changing to sandroba could really mess with things, so I'm going to change my vote to Fishball to ensure that a townie is lynched tonight. Basically, RoL just claimed vigi, so if he's lying the real vigi will kill him tonight. If he's telling the truth, either Fishball is mafia and we can now focus on DTs or Fishball is town leaving RoL to decide between me or Misder to kill tonight. Even if he for whatever reason decides kills me, town will know who to lynch the following day. ##Unvote ##Vote: Fishball The way I am going to play this is to kill Misder last. From a mafia stand point its a stupid claim, because then once Misder dies sinani is obviously the other scum. So I won't kill Misder, and if I end up being wrong and misder is scum then you know both mafia. Problem solved! | ||
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On July 04 2011 04:51 Fishball wrote: Well, good morning, or afternoon rather. So if RoL is the vigilante, there is a lying blue among sinani206, Sandroba, supersoft and nard. I'll give RoL benefit of doubt, and take my vote off him for now. That leaves myself, Pyo and Misder claiming green. Unless there is a green who claimed blue (which is stupid if there is any), one out of the three greens are lying; Much better odds than hunting the lying blue. I am putting my vote on Misder, as he was brought up by others earlier, and I don't like the fact that he plain switched his vote onto me right after RoL claimed. Any blues that are still voting for RoL or Sandroba should focus their votes on the greens.VisceraEyes was killed off in RTM, mod killed in Closed Casket since he felt he was being bullied by vets, so he wanted to leave this game since he wasn't in the mood to play anymore. I know I'm green and I'm here trying to convince you. Pyo has been rather helpful and active thus far, and I'm obviously not going to vote for myself, so I'm putting my vote on Misder. ##Unvote ##Vote: Misder I have the same thoughts as you on pyo, but I view the only logical way to go about this is killing Misder last, since he is a most likely townie or we win the game by knowing him and sinani are scum. So unfortunately that means lynch or kill you, then lynch or kill Pyo. Pyo looked down, so I opted to try to lynch Viscera and hope for the best case scenario. If you aren't scum then i will vigi Pyo tonight leaving Misder as the only other possible scum, and since he is not a likely "Cover" candidate, or even a check candidate I would assume that Sinani must be lying. | ||
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On July 04 2011 05:50 Pyo wrote: I'm actually fine with that since it is grounded in reasonably sound logic (unlike 90% of the ideas/strategies proposed so far). I have decided to not analyze this game at all and approach it on a pure logic basis. On that note, I might end the game with my next post. | ||
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On July 02 2011 01:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: 1. 2. sinani206 3. RebirthOfLeGenD 4. VisceraEyes/Fishball 5. Sandroba 6. Pyo 7. supersoft 8. nard 9. Misder Updated. [/quote] Currently we have players left in the game. Misder, myself, and pyo are confirmed 100% innocent. We know there is a liar in the blues. There are currently 4 remaining blues in the game. After tonight there will be 3, since I am obviously going to kill one. Which means we now have 3-2 scenario tomorrow since the mafia has to kill me. There is a 25% chance I hit scum by randomly killing a blue. With the next lynch there is a 33% chance of hitting him, once again based purely off of luck. The next cycle there is now one VT and two blues left. Now there is a straight 50% chance of victory. Statistically the mafia has a mere 4% chance of victory assuming we completely guess at who the scum is, those are odds I would take as town. I could theoretically create a list right now of the lynch order for the next two days and if the town agrees to follow it, regardless of what the mafia does, there is only a 4% chance of victory. Now let's go further into why exactly this mafia is absolutely fucked. Unfortunately we ended up with the framer left, which sucks a bit, but isn't the biggest deal, considering we mathematically dominated the mafia as mentioned above. The town has 1 DT we can be reasonably sure is both sane, and innocent. If I extrapolate this one step further, it leads to a 33% chance of victory with my vig hit, a 50% chance of victory with the lynch, and a 100% chance of victory with the following lynch. Wait you say, how could this possibly get worse? Well on top of that we have 3 DTs whose checks are all circle jerking each other, so he can't even risk not framing himself otherwise he could just get nailed as scum off the bat, since all he can do is kill the VT's, because any shooting into his blue group would immediately guarantee our victory. So on that note, I call for the mafia to resign. Statistically you have less than a 4% chance if we ignore all wifom and just randomly do everything. In fact, while I could eliminate sinani from the group because of his DT check on Misder I won't. This would introduce potential mafia Wifom into the equation, meaning a clever/lucky play on Day 1 would of made a guaranteed victory turn into a loss. I'd rather totally ignore it and go with the 96% chance of victory. | ||
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![[image loading]](http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/5919/lolrolgf7.jpg) sup? | ||
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On July 04 2011 12:21 Pyo wrote: Damn you RoL and your bad formatting which messed up my post's formatting... The part that was actually me talking was the following: 4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it. For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity. As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go. I will do whatever I want. Quiet you! Also that is the most generic advice I have ever read. | ||
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On July 04 2011 16:39 Ace wrote: So I'm going to write up a post soon detailing why Sinani was obviously Sane Detective and confirmed innocent, and why you guys should be bashing your heads against the wall for saying ridiculous things like "Vigilante don't claim" even though he's a self-confirmed Innocent once he does. While Mafia's chance of winning was slim, the Town was just bad at abusing what was given to them. I pretty much wrote all of this, which is why the mafia just conceded. Judging by player pool, I doubted the mafia were ballsy enough to fake a townie claim to gain traction, so the entire misder/sinani scum team thing was retarded. On top of which, while if Misder was red that situation could of been used to kill both mafia, inversely you could use it to confirm two townies in two separate player pools, which was more valuable and less risky since if you fail to prove misder being town by killing everyone else then you have that link to sinani. I was going to claim regardless, I wasn't sure when I was going to do it, then when fishball subbed in I decided it would be a nice docile way to put him down while proceeding with my plan. To be honest, the only play fishball REALLY had was to claim vigilante, which would of kept him alive until the night cycle, but all that would do is allow me to get a free mafia kill on fishball, confirming rest of the greens while allowing us to fire our lynch into the blues instead, which actually created an even worse scenario for the mafia. To be honest, there really wasn't much fishball could have done. At the very least this game needed a role blocker. | ||
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On July 04 2011 16:39 Ace wrote: So I'm going to write up a post soon detailing why Sinani was obviously Sane Detective and confirmed innocent, and why you guys should be bashing your heads against the wall for saying ridiculous things like "Vigilante don't claim" even though he's a self-confirmed Innocent once he does. While Mafia's chance of winning was slim, the Town was just bad at abusing what was given to them. Oh and to further expand on this. When you see 3 red checks and 1 green check and you know there was a 50/50 shot of being sane or paranoid, it is more likely the 1 claiming green is being honest, even if you assume the dead detective was sane. | ||
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I am definitely interested in hearing about why the mafia detective can't ever claim someone is innocent, though, so I await that post. I would think it could work in a wifomish way in case he dies, or wants more sway with townies. That's about all I can think of to justify doing it. | ||
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