EPTCan I go on a killing spree?
Real Time Mafia
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Can I go on a killing spree? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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By giving blues free-reign to kill lurkers, or at least having the threat of being shot if you're on the lurker list, most people should be compelled to contribute and not appear on the list. Do people agree blues should use their extra lurker KP, or no? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 28 2011 12:06 Hyaach wrote: Since every action is time based, I'm against blues using the KP as and when they like. Its more likely to hit a townie early in the game counting the ratio. But then again who doesn't like killing. Well, the lurker list doesn't come into effect until the next day cycle. Also, blues can use their KP at their own discretion for which lurker to hit, and can choose to save it for Day 3 and hit a repeat offender. The whole point is to have the threat of dying looming over your head, so that you are forced to post and contribute in order to not show up on the lurker list. If we told blues they can't shoot lurkers, then lurkers would just lurk. This way, they're forced to actually say something. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 28 2011 12:20 youngminii wrote: Do not do this, Vig you should be targeting who they feel is scum, not anyone that is spammy. First off, scum are not stupid, they won't be spamming up the thread for the sake of spamming the thread. Second, by saying "just shoot anyone that is cluttering up the thread with nonsense" in the thread will obviously signal scum to be very delicate and careful with their posting. FoS on you for this, it's a very flawed plan, everyone knows what a lurker is and what's not, if someone appears to be spammy and their playstyle lines up with scum then go ahead and shoot them but as soon as you start directing who the Vig should hit publically is when mafia get an advantage. Also, since lurking is defined by third party judgement, there's a chance that Spammers will also show up on the lurker list, due to quality of posts and actual word count. Shoot who you think is scummy, not who you think is worthless. -_- | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 28 2011 13:41 Varpulis wrote: The concept here is that if the mafia have killed off the townies on the skilled veteran list and are now killing moderately skilled and semi-experienced players, the remainder of the skilled veterans are likely mafia. Unfortunately, now that he's announced it in the thread, it's all WifoM. This is like a zodiac list, but without the good parts. Find mafia through analysis, not coincidence. I'd add LSB to any list as well, I might be wrong, but he seems like one of the better players here, and one I'm more familiar with (compared to ~OpZ~ and YM). Also, I don't think it helps mafia very much, as they are likely to have at least one "veteran" player on their team already, and thus should know most of the other vets already. Even then, it's not hard to search someone's name and see how many games they've played. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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First thing's first: On June 28 2011 17:52 Palmar wrote: So, I did out, I still got sent a role, so I guess RoL decided I was in. I hate to disappoint but that means I'm more alive than you'd like. Here are my thoughts so far on the game. Anyone encouraging vigis to take care with their shots is insane. Just go nuts and shoot whoever you like. This means that some people will be really angry with you, but then we just hang those people for mafia. Also, the zodiac or vet lists are completely useless in my opinion. That's like inviting the mafia to contribute without actually contributing. If you feel like making lists you should rather be doing something like listing up the lurkers. Then you're actually useful before we hang you. I'm still catching up, you guys spammed 10 pages while I slept. On June 28 2011 22:10 Palmar wrote: only problem with lynching sinani206 is that the last game I played with him his combo was: a) post fluff, lists and useless shit b) claim veteran c) get lynched. It's hard to analyse people who we know act super scummy as town anyway. But sure, he's the best idea so far, let's bandwagon this thing. While reading, these posts looked pretty bad (Read: Scummy) to me. YM already addressed this, and tried to explain it away as being Palmar's normal town play. I'll accept the explanation for now, but Palmar, I want you to know I've got my eye on you. I'd also like to hear more from you, to see if I can form a better opinion. Right now, most of your posts are just talking about lurkers, and not about players, so: Who's your number 1 scum read right now? Who do you think needs to contribute more to town (Either in terms of activity or content)? _________________________________________________________________________________ So, about GM. I'm getting the feeling he's town right now. He's pushing forward discussion, and trying to keep town focused. I'll think he's scum as soon as he starts pushing forward anti-town ideas or going after bad lynch targets. That said, I'd also like to see more of your (GM's) thoughts on players, and less on game set-up and thread environment. Who do you think is a good candidate for being scum right now? If you don't have a strong read, when can I get one? It's easier to analyze people based off of their opinions on players, than game mechanics. Game mechanics usually have an objective best way to play, like good environment, stopping lurking, etc. that just lets mafia players pander to town by discussing it. Forming opinions on players however, is where the limited information of the game comes in, and it's easier to judge someone's intents. (IMO) So, GM's discussion of mechanics and how to play seem pro-town, but until he starts talking about players, it won't be a super strong read from me. (I also love parentheses apparently) | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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For example, if I hadn't read further into the thread after Palmar's posts, I wouldn't have seen what YM said, and would have begun waging a bloody crusade against him. Stuff like this is important to see, and I personally don't think you should be trying to make analysis or contribute without all the information available to you, and without knowing what's been addressed or not already. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 29 2011 12:33 Lanaia wrote: I've reread this thread and have made my decision. Between Hiro and Drazerk, I feel Drazerk is less valuable to the town. I mean this in that we should lynch him over Hiro. Of course, everything I feel has already been said by others because they were obviously faster than me. I figured I'd inform you in this thread. I'm pretty sure I said it before, but let me state it again, explicitly: Don't lynch who you think is more useless, lynch who you think is scummier If you think Drazerk is scummier, then by all means carry on, but if you think Hiro might be scummier, but Drazerk is more useless, then you should reconsider. Of course, I don't know your full thought process, but from what you wrote, it looks like you settled on two people and just picked the one contributing less. On a side note, I'm taking a look at Drazerk, especially with gems like this: On June 29 2011 09:09 Drazerk wrote: May I suggest you read simple mini mafia 4 where as town I give my self up to be lynched every day? "Hi, remember that thing I did in that other game when I was town, well I'm doing it again, so I must be town, right?  "I'm not sure if he's scum or bad town at this point though, so I'm going to wait a little before jumping on a bandwagon, and go through his posts in other games, maybe. Then: + Show Spoiler + On June 29 2011 12:58 Palmar wrote: Whatever, if you guys insist on clearing people on STUFF THAT ISN'T IN THE GAME, I'm going to do the same. Syllo popped on IRC at some point today and asked "does GF always submit mafia kills when he is still alive?". This doesn't paint him scum, again, generally I'd assume the guy could ask his scum team, but I'm not eating up some bullshit excuse that he's probably blue. he has one stupid out-of-the-game thing going for him, and one against him. I'd rather that NEITHER were brought up as an issue, but since someone is using that to defend him, I'm going to use that to accuse him. Pretty sure you can't use something someone said outside the thread, as there aren't PMs allowed in this game. I don't even know why he's asking questions in a public irc, and not just PMing the host or asking here. -_- Also: GGQ, why are you bringing up lists again, and at this point in time, when we're done talking about them, and then using that list that isn't even thorough/complete compared to the one GM made? On June 29 2011 06:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I'd like to ask everyone to read through the entirety of the thread before they start posting, especially if what they have to say is only relevant to a past discussion. This will stop people bringing up things that the rest of town has mostly stopped talking about, and restarting a useless discussion. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 29 2011 13:26 Lanaia wrote: I do find him scummier than Hiro, and as they were the two people I had in mind that I wanted to lynch, I chose him as well. I could have sworn I'd written that into my post announcing it. Apparently I'm not fully here. I'm sincerely hoping that exchange on IRC palmar spoke of did not actually happen as it sounds kind of ridiculous and is it not technically against the rules as well? It feels unsettling but I want to see what Syllo says about this claim Palmar's made (And to see if they're both on the same page about it). In regards to Wiggles quoting Wiggles, I agree completely. It really is a pain when people read maybe halfway through and THEN start posting without finishing. Things tend to change in relevancy with each passing page. Ok, that's fine then. It's just that I always see townies posting "Oh, well this guy is useless so let's just lynch him". It's normally not a good idea to do so, especially if you think he's just useless, as opposed to say, actually scummy. However, it looks like you actually voted for the person you find scummier, as opposed to just the more useless, so that makes me happy. :p | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 29 2011 13:40 sinani206 wrote: Stop derailing the thread with the IRC nonsense. You're scaring others (like me) from posting. What do you mean? People just posted saying that you can't use something someone said outside the game (Not meta), as evidence for anything. The discussion hasn't been derailed, nobody's talking about it, just a couple people said to cut it out. I also don't get what you mean where you say it's scaring people from posting. How do you know others are scared, and why should people saying not to do something borderline breaking the roles impede your posting in any way? If you want to post, post. There's no reason to ever be scared of posting your thoughts, especially as a townie. This post just looks like an excuse to not post and lurk. If you're scum, it's not working, and if you're town, you shouldn't get intimidated into not posting. Lurking is never the way to go... | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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He not only martyred, but he martyred, and then about three posts later in the thread, he pointed out how he did the same thing as town. At first I though he might have been terrible town, but the fact that he explicitly states that he does the same thing as a townie looks scummy as all hell to me. Just a last ditch response to pressure that he reacted badly to, in my eyes. Ad on his weird flopping with GM and his attack on Sinani, and that's good enough for me to lynch on. ##Vote: Drazerk Also, could someone explain the case on visc to me better? I'm not too too familiar with his play in other games, but it looks like the case on him is: 1. Isn't playing to his town meta 2. Doesn't contribute I don't think that's enough for me to be comfortable lynching on, because looks a lot like he's just lazy. How does he normally act that makes this such a jarring change? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 30 2011 05:16 ~OpZ~ wrote: Someone else had said that he matrys every game he is town before hand he said it himself iirc. You should seriously look into that if thats a primary reason of yours for voting him. Just saying. As far as I can see, he was the first one to mention it: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=237124¤tpage=24 What reason does a townie have for martyring himself with 30 hours left in the lynch and then pointing out a specific game where he did the same thing as town? That looks like the bad self defense of a nooby scum. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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What do you think of Drazerk's martyring posts? I might be willing to consider changing my vote, but I can't get past how he makes a post giving up and then points us to a game where he dd the same thing as town. What's your take? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 30 2011 06:36 GMarshal wrote: I generally ignore meta, and pointing to the metagame is something I've seen both new and old players do, both as scum and town. Its bad play, but it doesn't tilt the balance for me either way, as we've said, bad play =/= mafia. Is it a determining factor for you? I understand what about it makes it suspicious, but in my experience its not something only mafia or only town do, so I'm not getting a huge read based on it. Well, it looked like a pretty scummy thing to me when I looked at it again. At first, I thought it might've been bad town play (I have a post somewhere saying that) or scummy, but decided on it as being scummy after a while. I'm thinking I might need to re-evaluate though, as both you and ~OpZ~ have expressed doubts about it being a big deal. To be honest, it was pretty much the thing that pushed me over to thinking he was scum, as he blatantly pointed out that he did it as town. Maybe I just haven't seen enough people be self-referential to meta in a bad way like that yet. =/ Time to think, let me know if you have anything to add to what you said. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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How sure are you that Draz's martyring and self-referencing are a null-tell, and how strong is your read on sinani? Curious. :p | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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I was pretty sure that Drazerk was likely to be red, until GM's posts made me start to doubt that his martyring was a strong tell. Don't know if that was intentional or not, but I'll just stick with my original vote on Drazerk now that visc has claimed DT. If he flips town, we just gun down Visc right after the flip. ~OpZ~ might be a good check for a detective too, as I remember him asking me to reconsider my Drazerk vote. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 30 2011 12:01 ~OpZ~ wrote: Oh yea, Wiggles, lemme point this out, cuz i forgot I posted that. If you care to go look at that, TAA's post seemingly breadcrumbs DT CHECK DRAZERK....I pointed it out....So I dunno guy, but I don't feel I was really defending him. Yeah, maybe not then. I thought that was a joke more than trying to actually find breadcrumbs though, so I disregarded it. Still think you'd be worth a DT check, as you weren't super active on Day 1, and I find you hard to read at least. :p | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 30 2011 13:37 sandroba wrote: Well, if these people are in the lurker list vigs will use up their lurker shot. Except there is no lurker list yet, so all shots should be normal. I'm pretty sure you have to differentiate when you send it in, because you can still use normal bullets on lurkers, but can't use lurker bullets on active people. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://makeagif.com/media/5-12-2011/Cg7k3Q.gif) Yeah, GM, like YM said, if you think there's a chance you might actually die (RB, second hit), you should post all your thoughts now. Then, if you do actually die, we can know we can trust them, and we have them, and if you don't die, well then your thoughts are in the thread anyways, which is a good thing for us most of the time. I'm going to go back and look at who was trying to keep the lynch off Drazerk and how right now, I propose others do the same, and see what we can come up with. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On June 30 2011 23:20 Jackal58 wrote: Well that should teach me to forgo sleep. 10 pages of mostly useless shit. The Lurker list: hyaach Mr Wiggles Opz Kenpachi GGQ aprudds Eiii Of those that made it 2 are players that have been subbed. aprudds is now Mataza. Welcome to the cluster fuck Mataza. And GGQ. GGQ's apparent lack of activity has disappointed me, however no matter his alignment he never posts a shitload anyways. At least not in the 5 or 6 games I've played with him. I'm thinking if a vig wishes to shoot into that list you avoid those 2 atm. That leaves: hyaach Mr Wiggles Opz Kenpachi Eiii Who the fuck is hyaach? If he has indeed avoided a modkill I think he would make an excellent lurker vig shot. Of the others between Mr.Wiggles, Opz, and Eii I'll bet one of them is scum. I'm leaning towards Opz. I also think the odds are extremely high that VisceraEyes and the rest of the scum team bussed Drovzk (sp). There is already some evidence that TAA had already checked him (I don't know if the time line bears this out. If it's already been checked please spare me the effort of connecting the dots) The odds of both DTs checking the same player on the same day just seem rather low to me. If that is the case and you guys buy that he is DT then scum have managed to manipulate a medic protect while allowing him to claim role block ad nauseum. This part is important. If you are role blocked claim it immediately. If Viscera is scum then the scum team has pretty much handcuffed their RB ability. GMarshal appears to be combining his last mayoral campaign with his endgame play in PTP. Both times he was scum. By all means if you have a gun shoot him. About who TAA checked, I don't think it was Drazerk. The reason for this is that TAA made a post somewhere, saying that if GM were mafia he is the GF, and also, importantly, that DTs should check Drazerk. This is important, because a DT who had just checked and confirmed someone as scum would push harder for their lynch, not ask for other detectives to waste a check on him. He also asks for someone to shoot GM in the same post. So, what I'm thinking is that he checked GM, who returned vet, but still thought his play was scummy enough for him to be mafia. So, he kept pushing for him, and starting calling him the GF, while asking for a shot on him, which would incidentally prove or disprove him to be town, similar to the situation we're in now. This make sense? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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##Vote: GMarshal | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Link to TAA's post hwere he calls for GM to be shot and Drazerk to be checked, forgot to paste. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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This is someone who's mostly fallen off the radar, except for the last couple pages, and who actually had a fair bit of pressure on him day 1, making the fact he's been mostly forgotten a little weird. He basically starts day 1 off by agreeing with GM and parroting the shoot lurkers sentiment. + Show Spoiler + On June 28 2011 12:13 hiro protagonist wrote: Sup town! I am 100% behind Gmarshal about lurkers/trolls. that is all I have to say about that. so everyone, lets get into it: towns lurker KP should be used once any lurker list is up. As such, I doubt very much that we will need to do a policy lynch on lurkers (which is something I almost always advocate). Conversely: mafia, with the lurker mod on, will try and be spammy. Vigs, please,please,PLEASE, just shoot anyone that is cluttering up the thread with nonsense. His next contribution is a list, which is basically a non-contribution, as anyone who's played more than a couple games here is capable of making one. As well, there is no reasoning with it, just names. + Show Spoiler + On June 28 2011 13:34 hiro protagonist wrote: Ok, chaos, he is a list: GMarshal youngminii Jackal58 ~OpZ~ Mr. Wiggles Kenpachi these are the most skilled/vets players in this game. Fun fact: GMarshal has never been lynched as town. Another fun fact: Mr. Wiggles has been mafia the last 2 games I played with him. The following players I would describe as skilled, or at least very active when playing town: DropBear Cthsazsa Mig sandroba VisceraEyes Palmar Varpulis Everyone else I have no experience playing with. GM calls him out on his posting of rehashed ideas, and here is his defense: + Show Spoiler + On June 29 2011 04:55 hiro protagonist wrote: Hi Gmarshal! So you think my posts so far have no content? fluff? putting a pressure vote on me? OK, I can dig that. My defense is an easy one: everyone of my first 7 post where in the first 2 hours of the game, in which I: * encourage town not to lurk, not to spam, or there will be consequences. * made a list of players that are vets and should be put under scrutiny (thats why KenP was on it, and I put mine up before yours GM, but yours was better written i must say). How does one be pro-town in the beginning of the game? why, by creating a good town atmosphere! I did just that. So did you. Your opening post was just what I wanted to say, but you said it first, so I just agreed with you. Then I went to bed, woke up, and went to work. now I am here again, and I will contribute like a good townie should: scum hunting. I have some leads(*cough Syllogism *cough), and I will make a post about it in a bit. keep your votes on me if you think I wont follow through ^__^ Basically plays up his posts as doing something more than they were. I also laughed at the bolded bit as again, it is essentially echoing GM's first post in the thread. Also note that Hiro promises scum-hunting from himself. Notes a suspicion of syllogism with no reasoning. Now, this is a little funny: + Show Spoiler + On June 29 2011 07:42 hiro protagonist wrote: ##Vote syllogism You still have not given me a reason not to vote for you. I am willing to believe you when you say all of your posts are not fluff and are pro-town, but none of your posts tells me who you think are scum, or what your opinion on anyone is. time for you to step up. Tell me who YOU think is scum. Give opinions on other lynch candidates. Do this, and I will move my vote off you. On June 29 2011 08:03 hiro protagonist wrote: He hasn't stuck his neck out on anything or given an opinion. His post so far are like the first level of a video game: tutorials. Dont get me wrong, helping out the newer players is fine (I would consider myself a newer player) but where half way though day 1, and its time to move on to finding scum. He has not done that. He starts to press syllo pretty hard, but now it's not because he's scum. So, somewhere between here and his last couple posts, he changes his mind on syllo from being scummy, to just posting pro-town and not giving opinions. Also note the delicious irony in his reasons for voting syllo. He calls him out for not giving concrete opinions on anything, while posting generic town advice, which is actually a good description for Hiro's own posting up until that point. Again, he avoids saying that he thinks syllo is scum anymore, while saying that town needs to find scum, which apparently he has not done either. + Show Spoiler + On June 29 2011 08:12 hiro protagonist wrote: My whole reason for voting for him is so I could get an opinion off of him. Why else would I ask? Syllo actually calls out Hiro for his contradictory posting, and instead of addressing it, he just calls out syllo some more. Then, when asked to give his own opinions again, he deflects it by saying he wants to get an opinion from syllo. After this, syllo gives some kind of opinion, and Hiro takes his vote off very easily, before reading up on TAA's analysis and hopping on Drazerk, again with no reasoning of his own, just agreement with what's been posted. After page 28, he's completely disappeared, which leaves me surprised for why he's not on the lurker list. So to sum up:
Verdict: Probable Scum He's disappeared since page 28, so I'm hesitant to actually take much action at this point. If he ever shows up again, I'd like to see his defense and get his opinions, or else we can just shoot him when he shows up on the lurker list Day 3, if he isn't modkilled. I think he's likely to flip scum, but I wouldn't waste a lynch or vig shot on someone who hasn't posted for so long. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On July 01 2011 05:48 syllogism wrote: As for GM, I don't see how vigi hitting him is useful. The vigi would have to roleclaim and we've no way of knowing if the vigi is town without wasting a DT check on him. Now, this would net us two scum, but the odds them doing this gambit are low. However the mere possibility means GM can't be confirmed in this manner. Even assuming we believe the vigi and thus confirm both, one or both of them will be likely mafia targets. If the vigi is a compulsory vigi, this doesn't seem like a good trade. It seems to me GM has to be lynched sooner or later. Actually, yeah, I think you might be right. For some reason, I was working under the assumption that hits would show up in posts similar to how the kills have been. That might be wrong though, as failed hits normally aren't reported, and I just realized that. -_- | ||
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On July 01 2011 08:16 Eiii wrote: hahahaha Anyway, town seems to have lost focus between the GM ordeal and everything else. I think all that needs to be said is that he's used the pressure as an excuse to completely stop contributing analysis or anything at all apart from 'shoot me', which is extremely scummy in my eyes. We can lynch him today, but I'd rather just pretend that every non-useful post of his in the thread doesn't exist so we can focus on more interesting targets. I'm still curious to see what other people have to say about chaos/hiro. I don't think the case against 206 is too strong, he just feels like bad town to me. Well, like I said, Hiro looks a lot like scum to me, but it also looks like he's not even here either. I'm gonna have to go back and look at chaos' posts. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On July 01 2011 09:31 Eiii wrote: that's the thing, even if he does get shot the only word we have to go on is GM's, unless we want a vig to claim (which I assume we don't). Mhmm, a lot of GM's credibility seems to be shot in the eyes of a lot of people it seems. So, pretty much the only way those people will trust him is if the vig claims as well. Also, by this point, mafia probably has an RB or something on GM if he is a vet. GM, can you just contribute like you normally would, so we can judge you from that? I don't care if you aren't shot and confirmed if you start contributing more. If you do that, I'll be able to tell better from your posts what your alignment is, and it's more helpful if something bad happens to have more info in thread than not if you are town. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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If visc is mafia: -He doesn't know Varp's role, and so mafia need to kill him to hide that fact If visc is a DT: -Mafia don't want a confirmed townie running around -Mafia want it to look like the first case I'm actually expecting stuff like this to continue happening with visc's checks. The best thing to do, will be to lie about who you're checking, and add some WIFOM for the mafia, for if they should kill who you say, and then unless you get a red check, don't bother revealing until the last six hours, unless people are pushing for an innocent lynch. My two cents about subsequent checks. | ||
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Possibilities include: -3 DTs -Lack of Killing Roles (Observable so far) or maybe -3 DTs -Multiple Millers I don't think it's enough to lynch visc on just because there were two other detectives, especially in a set-up where there's the possibility of millers, as well as a seeming lack of town KP. I'd rather we just keep him on a short leash and see how he acts on Day 3. As well, visc, I'd like you to start actually contributing beyond being a possible detective. Make analysis, scum hunt, and actually contribute. Just talking about how you're the detective isn't contributing, and if I'm going to lynch you for anything, it will be for acting scummy, which hiding behind being a detective as an excuse to not contribute anything else is. I'm washing my car right now, but after that I'm going to look at Chaos' posts and see if he bread-crumbed any suspicions or called anyone out as being pro-town, etc. I'll let you guys know what I find. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On July 02 2011 05:39 syllogism wrote: Viscera checking Drazerk frankly doesn't make sense. Mafia not killing him immediately after day 2 post makes no sense. Do you know why? It's quite possible medics would either send in their PMs too late or still be stuck with their previous targets due to it lasting 36h. These could be explained by mafia being inept of course, but it just to the suspicion. What is the alternative method of dealing/confirming him then? Make him do the same check tomorrow? Mafia could kill proposed targets and giving him too much leeway would allow him checking another mafia. Moreover, the target would likely be VT. Unless we get lucky, I don't think we can trust him unless he gives us a red. Well, we could just get him to start playing like a normal DT, as in he checks whoever he wants, potentially out of a list agreed on by town (maybe not as it's open to scum influence), and then doesn't reveal his check, unless the person he checked is getting pushed for the lynch and are town, or he can reveal if he checks red. I'd still like to see analysis behind any checks though, innocent or guilty. There's still a GF kicking around, and there's the distinct possibility of millers. So, any action we take based on a check, should be backed up by analysis, especially if it was proposed by visc. So basically, he doesn't announce checks unless it's a town being pushed towards the lynch, or if he finds a red. Then, all checks should be taken with a large grain of salt and backed up by strong analysis before we act on them. Anyone jumping on a bandwagon, or acting like his checks are 100% fool-proof, are either playing bad or are mafia. It actually makes sense for mafia to keep him alive if he's DT, as it would be very easy to throw suspicion on him and push for his lynch. Mafia are playing from behind right now, and every mislynch helps them, especially if it's a blue, and until we can figure out a way to confirm him, we can't actually trust any of his checks, similar to the situation with GM right now. However, if he's mafia expect him to either just announce checks as innocent (which is what a townie would do too, no need to our potential blues), or to claim being RBed. That's why I'm asking him to contribute, because if he's mafia, it's easy to hide behind being the DT and not act pro-town in any other way, whereas a real townie would be eager to scum hunt, in addition to any checks. Blue roles don't win games, analysis does. | ||
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On July 02 2011 06:04 syllogism wrote: That makes sense except for the part where you says he could stop town from mislynching, as he could just as well be diverting a lynch from his scum mate. Huh? Never said that, said if he's a real DT, it's easy for scum to mislynch him. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
I'm gonna address a few things: On July 02 2011 08:28 syllogism wrote: Mr. Wiggles looks pretty bad based on his defense of VE. It's not possible for mafia to have shot VE, all mafia hits are accounted for (Sandroba, Chaos13, Varpulis). If a vigi killed one of those, just claim. Could you please point out where I defended visc? I don't think I have any posts where I say he's the detective, and I was content to let him sit in unconfirmed limbo until his posting revealed what he was for certain. The fact that he never made any post besides talking about how he was the DT made him look scummier and scummier to me, and if he continued, I was going to push for his lynch tomorrow. Next, I don't get why everyone is saying the case on Sinani201 is "so strong". Basically, accusations against newer players can be separated into three different ideas:
The first two parts of Sinai206's analysis rest on useless posting and lurking. However, I disagree with his conclusions, and also how he creates his own motives for why Sinani201 is posting what he is. For the next part, most of it looks a lot like bad town play to me, more than someone pushing scummy objectives, especially with posts like: On June 28 2011 13:24 Sinani201 wrote: From this, it seems like you are either trying to help the Mafia, or softclaiming medic. Or perhaps trying to help the medic. Sinani206 tries to play this up as being scummy, but this honestly makes Sinani201 seem more likely to be town, to me. The reason for this is, that a scummy player would simply notify his team if he thought someone made a blue slip, as opposed to pointing it out for everyone to see, which is bad play. So, this just ends up looking like a townie saying something bad while thinking out loud. There's also a lot of idea twisting in the analysis, but I'm not going to point out every instance of it. If you want me to, I can, but otherwise I'm not going to exert the effort. So, I'm going to leave this with what I've said, and also just that I disagree with most of it. As for other lynch targets. I think Hiro is scummy, but I don't know if it's worth lynching him today. The reasons for this are several. Firstly, his lynch gives us little information. He's not here anymore to defend himself, so there's not exactly much discussion to be had besides what's already on the table. Next, he's been incredibly inactive today, and will very likely be on the lurker list tomorrow. This means that ~OpZ~ can take a shot at him if he so desires, saving us the lynch. Lastly, since Hiro is incredibly inactive, he has very little thread influence. Since mafia KP is already dropped to one, we might as well hunt for the last mafia among us than spend our time waiting for the flip of Hiro, we're more productive that way. So, if we can't find anyone else who looks like scum, we can lynch Hiro, but otherwise we're better off saving him for a lurker bullet. And now I've just tabbed back to the thread and saw that YM claimed hatter... So, I'm going to have to figure out what's happening now. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
That said, I disagree with the Sinani201 lynch, so I guess I'm voting for Hiro tonight. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
It's also Canada Day, so I'm too lazy to hunt for someone else right now. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Are you saying I'll lynch hiro, or calling me scum? If you think I'm scum, I'd like to see why, rather than just throwing my name out there. It's non-committal and scummy when there's no reasoning behind it. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On July 02 2011 10:15 Sinani201 wrote: Vanilla vigilante. You're right, I should have posted before/after killing DropBear, but I didn't. However there is no counter-evidence so there is no reason why you shouldn't trust me. No, I was just curious, as it's normal to claim your shot directly before you shoot, to avoid ambiguity. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On July 02 2011 10:19 syllogism wrote: I'm inclined to believe his claim. That graph seems a bit too much effort for a scum and there's no counterclaim. He should still have a lurker shot left, which we can use tomorrow. I think I'll have to vote Hiro unless someone can make a quick case on Wiggles. That's a pretty bad reason for voting... -_- "Voting for this guy who has an analysis on him, unless someone can make an analysis on this other guy, in which case I'll just agree with that." You basically just said that you'll vote for me no matter how good or bad the analysis is, or whether it even makes sense or not, there just need to be one. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On July 02 2011 10:24 Palmar wrote: I'll never get an analysis in time on Wiggles. Here is the main stuff: He began the game writing some general town advice on how to play, and that was most of his contribution throughout day 1 up until he hopped Draz's bandwagon. He ended up on the lurker list, fully aware that being there is anti-town Opz thinks he's scum I think he's scum Sandroba thought he's scum GGQ thinks he's scum Here's my rebuttal:
There's a list of my contributions from just day 1, more or less. Nice how you can't take the time to afford accuracy in your accusations, and I love the appeal to authority you tacked onto the end there to make it look like it's actually more legitimate than it is. On July 02 2011 10:23 syllogism wrote: Voting Wiggles, almost purely based on the lack of realistic GF alternatives, so I suppose you'll have to claim too. Meanwhile, Supersoft just stealth voted gtrsrs. I'm Vanilla Town, and that's still a bad reason to vote me. Where did you get the idea that GF is only ever going to be a veteran player, and beyond that, why do you ignore the possibilities of Mig, GGQ, Jackal, Eiii, Palmar, even if you only limit yourself to that criteria? At this point, I think you're just sheeping along with Palmar more than making independent decisions yourself. Palmar - breadcrumbed town by chaos13, also you don't lynch the motherfucking Brother Leader and Guide of the Town Also, I don't get why Palmar keeps playing up the supposed "crumb" he found, where chaos makes reference to him being pro-town in his eyes like it makes him some kind of confirmed green. I think I'm starting to agree with Jackal about him. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
We have one person we're pretty sure is scum Everyone else we have to bandwagon on with three hours left, and without discussion We have one lynch tonight We have lurker kills tomorrow So, we lynch the person we are pretty sure is scum now, and that gives us enough time to make actual analysis against the other people, some of whom will certainly be on the lurker lists. As opposed to: Save the only person who has concrete analysis against him to shoot him the next day Scramble to find someone else to lynch and hope they're not town (Or in Palmar's case not really care) Now, what makes more sense? My vote is staying on Hiro, for lack of better reasoning on others. Good Night. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On July 02 2011 11:07 youngminii wrote: This post seems scummy to me. For lack of a better target, I am voting you. Good for you. I think hiro's scum, and even though he's going on the lurker list for near sure, I'm still going to lynch him instead of frantically scrabbling to find someone else who is scummy. That's the better play, lynch who you think is scum, not whoever you can put together a bandwagon on quick enough. This was a direct response to Palmar, who is asking that we don't lynch hiro so that we can use lurker KP on him tomorrow, without bringing up any actual reasoning for any other lynch, besides: "As for the rest, go nuts..." | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Hey, you got explodered anyways :p | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/JftiqtZ2SzhYY Thoughts: Reasons Contributing To Why Mafia Got Bent Over And Raped: 1. General Inexperience of Scum: As far as I can tell, for several of the mafia members, this was only their first or second game as scum. Three of them (Drazerk, Visc, DB) failed at staying hidden in a way I saw as irreparable, which I attribute to lack of individual experience as scum. As well, I have never led a mafia team before, and most (Read: All) of my games as scum have had a very hands-off approach to how the mafia team was managed in their posting. As well, I just don't like the idea of micro-managing people's posting. 2. An Actually Decent Town for Once: This compounds with the first point somewhat. Most of my games, have been against town's who are incredibly bad. This was the first time I've played a town that actually didn't manage to tear itself apart on the first day. So, I didn't know what to expect or how to react, really. Town also had good aim, which is a side-effect of the first point. Kudos to town for being alright for once. :p 3. No Down-Time for Mafia: I think this is actually an important point especially with the real-time mechanic and the lurker list. Normally, there are night phases, where town is not as active, and where mafia are given a chance to think and plan. This game does not feature night phases, and the entire game is essentially a day phase. As well, there is a lurker mechanic in play to encourage activity, and punish those who are seen to be "lurking". So, what happened to me the first day, is I spent a lot of time with the mafia team, and trying to figure out what to do, and that impacted on my posting, getting me on the lurkers list. The next day, I was able to be much more active, but that came at the sacrifice of being able to coordinate with my teammates. So, mafia is hard-pressed to actually be able to organize itself, as they have to be constantly posting to avoid the lurker list, or they have to risk being placed there, to spend more time communicating with their teammates. 4. High Concentration of Blues Amongst Vets: This actually affected me, I think, and is mostly coincidence. However, there were confirmable blues in the form of YM, GM, and ~OpZ~, which didn't help me at the end of day 2. As far as I can tell, I was mostly lynched because "I was probably GF", using the fact that mafia would have at least one veteran, and with most vets either being dead, or being confirmable blues, I was pretty much the only choice left after process of elimination and general scuminess. Correct me if you had other reasons for the lynch, I can't tell as there was little discussion around it. Suggestions:
Let me know what you think, and thanks for hosting, RoL, Kurumi, and Node. | ||
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