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TL Mafia XL - Page 60

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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aprudds
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada144 Posts
June 11 2011 05:21 GMT
#1181
On June 11 2011 14:17 gtrsrs wrote:
you know

looking back
we have 40 players
i doubt there'd be more than 1/5th mafia
maximum 8. more likely 7. 3 dead = 4 mafia remaining
4 mafia = 2 KP. 1 KP removed for amazing's death. 2-1 = 1 KP last night

it's entirely possible that a vigi shot last night. a vigi hit on jackal would have made sense too. what say you guys?


There are 8 mafia. Look at the first page.
Treadmill
Profile Joined July 2010
Canada2833 Posts
June 11 2011 05:22 GMT
#1182
On June 11 2011 14:17 gtrsrs wrote:
you know

looking back
we have 40 players
i doubt there'd be more than 1/5th mafia
maximum 8. more likely 7. 3 dead = 4 mafia remaining
4 mafia = 2 KP. 1 KP removed for amazing's death. 2-1 = 1 KP last night

it's entirely possible that a vigi shot last night. a vigi hit on jackal would have made sense too. what say you guys?

It says explicitly in the OP that there were 8 mafia to start with.
teamsolid
Profile Joined October 2007
Canada3668 Posts
June 11 2011 05:23 GMT
#1183
On June 11 2011 14:17 gtrsrs wrote:
you know

looking back
we have 40 players
i doubt there'd be more than 1/5th mafia
maximum 8. more likely 7. 3 dead = 4 mafia remaining
4 mafia = 2 KP. 1 KP removed for amazing's death. 2-1 = 1 KP last night

it's entirely possible that a vigi shot last night. a vigi hit on jackal would have made sense too. what say you guys?

It's stated at the beginning of this thread that it's 32 town, 8 mafia.
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
June 11 2011 05:24 GMT
#1184
that is an amazing series of ninja's o_O
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
Treadmill
Profile Joined July 2010
Canada2833 Posts
June 11 2011 05:27 GMT
#1185
On June 11 2011 14:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
that is an amazing series of ninja's o_O

LOL yeah. That'll teach gtsrs to ask questions
freeloader625
Profile Joined May 2010
United States180 Posts
June 11 2011 05:28 GMT
#1186
On June 11 2011 14:09 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2011 13:23 freeloader625 wrote:
On June 11 2011 13:15 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Impervious was cleaning his gun. He hated those scummy reds with a passion. He also happened to be a gun enthusiast who took great pride in his collection. He had his favorite Colt Anaconda stripped in front of him. As he was oiling the gun he suddenly heard a noise behind him. “Nice collection” growled a sinister voice. Impervious’s heart went cold. He looked at his dissembled gun and realized he had no chance. A cold chuckle filled his ears. The town found his body the next morning.

Jackal58 was playing his guitar in his basement. He was feeling pretty good about the game so far, the godfather was dead and he was sure the mafia was reeling. He was playing pretty loudly and consequently didn’t hear the person enter his basement. He slammed out one last chord and turned his amp off. A voice reached his ears “you’re dead” it said flatly. Jackal spun around just in time to meet a silenced bullet through his head.

Jackal58 the townie has been killed
Impervious the vigilante has been killed


Why would you ever take the time to clean your gun?!? This game is too dangerous for that!

Jokes aside, how do you guys come up with this role play scenarios? I'm just curious.

The night post? I just made it up. Impervious was a Vigi so I wanted him to be doing something with a gun. I know Jackal posts on a guitar forum so I had him playing a guitar... does that answer your quesion?


Yes yes, thats pretty awesome how you go out of your way to do that :D
gtrsrs
Profile Joined June 2010
United States9109 Posts
June 11 2011 05:35 GMT
#1187
touche i didn't even see that part
i assumed that this was a ?? of ?? mafia remaining kind of game
i play ... hearthstone =\^.^/= Winterfox
TheAwesomeAll
Profile Joined January 2011
Netherlands1609 Posts
June 11 2011 06:23 GMT
#1188
On June 11 2011 13:02 gtrsrs wrote:
i agree with trancestorm's analysis of Vain, and i agree 100%. i think we should pressure Vain.

the other main mafia candidate for me is still grush57. i looked through his last ~15 posts in this topic and they were ALL < 3 lines except for 1 which was 3 lines. none of them have anything of value at all, except the one that's 3 lines.

in that post he declares that mafia likes to stay quiet so as to divert our attention. this is fallacious. mafia likes to actively lurk so we target the quiet people and they blend in. with ~15 posts that say nothing, a pressure vote on me, and ultimately a vote for amazingxkcd, i'm sticking with my gut that grush is mafia

grush or vain hopefully take a bullet tonight, if not, we need to lynch one of them for sure tomorrow. my next biggest candidate is treadmill, followed by abrupps and teamsolid.

town list for sure is:
pyo
gtrsrs
trancestorm
xedat
kurumi
jackal

based on his day 1 voting for falafi i think Munk e is town as well.
dr Helvetica <3
Treadmill
Profile Joined July 2010
Canada2833 Posts
June 11 2011 06:40 GMT
#1189
Okay... I'm actually deeply confused on what to do here. I've been at least FoS'd by a fair number of people in the last few pages, if not outright called scum. I'm trying to decide whether or not to defend myself - on the one hand, people have been shouting "scum! scum!" at others for being defensive but on the other hand people have been shouting "scum! scum!" at others for not defending themselves. So confusing. I've come down on the side of defending myself, so we'll see.

I'm not scum. I'm a townie. I don't want you guys to waste a lynch on me when there are genuine mafia out there to hunt.

As far as I can tell the case against me is based on
i. I strongly advocated for the lynch of amazingxkcd
ii. iGrok and I were somehow 'pals'

As for [i], I really feel like I had a good case against xkcd. I genuinely thought he was scum. A lot of people including experienced players like impervious agreed with me - as well as many of the people who ended up voting iGrok. I didn't lie about the details of his case, I didn't "tunnel" him, I feel like I did my best to be fair to him. Obviously I was wrong, obviously I screwed up, but I advocated for what I believed.

As for iGrok, I read him wrong too. to my eyes, the criticisms on day one from gtrsrs and from Kurumi came of of nowhere. From what I can tell in retrospect, they're suspicion came (in part) from past experience in the game - gtrsrs said a few pages ago that he was suspicious cause he'd done the same thing his first game as godfather - but to me their accusations came out of nowhere, so I defended him. Day 2 they were amongst the first people to go to lynch him so I was again suspicious of that lynch. I was wrong though. iGrok buddying up to me like he did, could've been him trying to give me legitimacy but he kept doing it when he was under a lot of suspicion.

If I've missed something, let me know, and I'll answer to it as best I can.

Anyways, I'm staying up for the MSL finals so I'm gonna spend some time looking for the real mafia. One person I think could use more scrutiny is Alderan - day one he posted a lot of suspicions of xkcd, then posted how he felt that the case against rookie44 was pretty weak, then he switched his vote to rookie44 for odd reasoning. He also is one of the only two guys, with Senj, to have voted for both rookie day 1 and xkcd day 2.
TheAwesomeAll
Profile Joined January 2011
Netherlands1609 Posts
June 11 2011 07:02 GMT
#1190
On June 09 2011 14:16 Treadmill wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2011 13:38 Pyo wrote:
On June 09 2011 13:22 Treadmill wrote:

Something else: GGQ didn't post ANY suspicions of iGrok until literally 1 minute before the night post. So the notion that GGQ was killed to protect iGrok from his accusations is bogus.

Wait, when did anyone say this?

CjrNinja, page 46. I pared it down but you can go back and look:
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2011 12:42 CjrNinja wrote:
I think GGQ died for 3 reasons:
a) Has been the only person to suspect Vain, which no one has picked up on (yet).
b) Suspected iGrok, though wasn’t as vocal about it (before his ‘death posts’)
c) Experienced player


One point:
Show nested quote +
KURUMI DOES NOT NEED AN EXPLANATION AND HE CAN DEFEND HIMSELF FINE. HE IS TOWNIE

Either
a. xkcd is claiming DT and that he checked Kurumi last night - after having spent most of yesterday mentioning why it wouldn't really be useful for a DT to check on him and the results shouldn't be trusted
or
b. xkcd has boundless faith in this guy and considers him exempt from scrutiny because... what? I really can't see any scenario two except for xkcd being mafia.
[/b]
interesting how you seem to have figured out hes blue here, and then proceed to vote for XKCD. Looking back at the actions of treadmill last day hes been mostly defending iGrok
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 09 2011 13:22 Treadmill wrote:
I really think that you guys are way overthinking things on iGrok. heist's post here:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 09 2011 10:31 heist wrote:
Ok before the bandwagon on iGrok starts to get too much momentum, I felt like I had to intervene. The evidence is much too inconclusive. Sprungjeezy is looking at his posts through a mafia bias and I will try to do the opposite to provide some measure of balance. Mine will be in italics (btw sry i couldnt get through the formatting issues of the last parts of the post)

On June 08 2011 23:43 Sprungjeezy wrote:
My Analysis of iGrok

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 05 2011 15:36 iGrok wrote:
In the shadows lies
A peculiar type of Man
Kuze is my name.



In this game, I will start all of my posts with haikus. Enjoy ^^


Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 14:39 cherubael wrote:
On June 05 2011 14:06 freeloader625 wrote:
On June 05 2011 14:03 Jimbooo wrote:
On June 05 2011 14:02 freeloader625 wrote:
On June 05 2011 13:49 cherubael wrote:
On June 05 2011 13:35 aprudds wrote:
On June 05 2011 12:44 freeloader625 wrote:
Omg I'm so excited for this. I read all the rules twice and just want to ask to anyone willing to answer (before the game starts) since these were not answered in the thread rules:

1) Since PMs are not allowed, how would mafia communicate with each other?
2) Once someone dies whether it be by votes or mafia hit, will their roles be revealed?

Thanks and GL everyone! (I've only played SC2 Mafia before and got hooked)


Hmm, a bit suspicious no? Right when the PM are getting sent out too. Scum slip?


A bit of a bold accusation, I would say. However, I do have to agree, the first question does look a bit suspicious. After all, a townie would have *no* reason to ask such a question, as they can't PM anyway.


Oh but a townie does have reasons to ask such a question.

Don't take my SC2 Mafia as lack of experience, I was able to deduce roles within the 50seconds given. :D

What reason does a townie have to ask such a question?


All I can say is, all too often the first one to speak is "put on trial." Sleep on it.


So...you asked a question so you could be lynched day one...alright...that makes sense. (note the sarcasm)

Either you give a legitimate, straight reason to ask this sort of question as townie, or you clearly are just trying to save your butt after having messed and shown your role as mafia.

Also, Aril, you seem to be very quick in defending him, while not wanting to accuse anyone. Are you afraid your role will be too obvious if you accuse someone? Also, what reason do you have to defend him? What has he done for you? The only reason would be because you are both mafia, and you are trying to look out for him.

He has plenty of reasons to be a townie. Don't even think about that kind of McCarthy Bullshit this early in the game.

Anyone voting this early deserves some measure of suspicion.

Also, I am schwasted, so this may not make a lot of sense. (White Russians are the best!)

But.

If you are new to mafia, welcome. A quick word of advice: Think before you act. Those people who have already voted are acting too hastily. a 40 man game is much more about reasoning than putting pressure on someone. And the only reason you would vote this early is to put pressure on someone.

Things to note about this game:

Detectives instead of watchers: This gives us hard checks (with a few exceptions) on who is scum/town. Town needs to know this information, and we need to keep it out of the hands of mafia. For new players, this is where crumbing comes in. Crumbing is leaving clues about what you want to say. The best crumbs will be deciphered by us and not by scum. However, crumbs can be used a different way, in that you leave crumbs no one can decipher and then reveal multiple crumbs later. This is good if you are new because often times no one can understand your crumbs anyways since you don't have experience.

Vigilantes: Need to not use your shots immediately. You are MUCH more likely to hit a civilian than scum at first, and also more likely to caus confusion.

Those are the two most important roles this game.


Regarding discussion:

Freeloader is probably not scum. He is new and likely inexperienced. However, just to be sure, a cop needs to check him tonight. Which reminds me:

If a miller is roleblocked, what does he return to investiagtion?

Anyways, many good ideas floating around for a newbie game :p Keep up the good work


I believe it is always good to start off the game by knowing who's good, who's new, and who's annoying. Some people read previously played games to get a better read, but as this is a new game, most won't look further than this. A nice long post that defends the very quick accusations against Freeloader625, a pretty neutral post.

One of his first posts is to warn people to not bandwagon early on in the game especially with such little evidence. Other than Aril he’s one of the earliest people to defend Freeloader. I would say that’s more than neutral and obviously pro-town behavior.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 16:27 aprudds wrote:
On June 05 2011 16:19 iGrok wrote:
On June 05 2011 16:11 heist wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:15 Treadmill wrote:
As I said earlier, "we should keep an eye on Freeloader". But that's it. There will certainly be much more conversation before the end of the first day.

A few thoughts:
There are 8 mafia but do we know how much killing power they have? If 6 normally get 3 kills/night would it be sensible to extrapolate that 8 get 4?


How do you know how many mafia there are? I thought role counts are not disclosed.

Lead by example
The most important questions
Must be answered now


If you have a question regarding the game setup, ask it like so:

How does Mafia KP work? Is it #/2, a fixed number, etc?

You ask with green not blue.

Olol.

No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green.

O shit, a post without a Haiku but pretty irrelevant at this time.

I agree. Irrelevant.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 16:27 aprudds wrote:
On June 05 2011 16:19 iGrok wrote:
On June 05 2011 16:11 heist wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:15 Treadmill wrote:
As I said earlier, "we should keep an eye on Freeloader". But that's it. There will certainly be much more conversation before the end of the first day.

A few thoughts:
There are 8 mafia but do we know how much killing power they have? If 6 normally get 3 kills/night would it be sensible to extrapolate that 8 get 4?


How do you know how many mafia there are? I thought role counts are not disclosed.

Lead by example
The most important questions
Must be answered now


If you have a question regarding the game setup, ask it like so:

How does Mafia KP work? Is it #/2, a fixed number, etc?

You ask with green not blue.

Olol.

No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green.

Another irrelevant post, but continuing to have a presence. Important for people to see him.

Insignificant.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 05 2011 18:14 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:07 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 13:47 Treadmill wrote:
It is a good spot, aprudds. We should keep an eye on freeloader625.

Jimbooo, we do have to lynch somebody. Being "hasty" isn't really a concern. And somebody with next to no evidence against them is a better lynch than everyone else with no evidence against them at all. Still, 48 hours yet.

What? Bad lynches are good lynches? Are You a stupid Rat or You're a Noobtown? Lynch is the most IMPORTANT tool town gets.
##vote Treadmill

Two threads, Two places
Vote in one, not the other
Or you may mislead.


Just fyi, voting in the Thread and not in the voting thread is considered scummy at higher levels of play. I will of course excuse you since you are new, but I'm trying to help you out here - if you're going to vote, then vote, but make sure you know what you're doing. Make sure you read my post.

Also, again with the bullshit McCarthyism - This is VERY anti-town, and if you're a menace to town, promoting anti-town play, its in our best interest to remove you from the game if we have no strong mafia targets.

tl;dr: CTFO

+ Show Spoiler +
Chill The Fuck Out


Starts to get interesting somewhat. Note he denounces Kurumi's valid post against Jimboo (who I previously considered if he was mafia, but believe he is just a very-almost-too active townie). Also accuses Kurumi of being anti-town.

You read this wrong. Kurumi criticizes Treadmill who states that lynching somebody with some evidence of scum is better than lynching someone without any evidence. Yes, he accuses Kurumi as being anti-town but you yourself admit to having some thought of Kurumi being mafia. We can all see iGrok’s reasoning (after all I think all everyone at some point has considered Kurumi as mafia). Kurumi is acting really aggressive, is quick to vote, and is pointing fingers everywhere. Now none of this is conclusive of being mafia, but it is certainly not pro-town behavior which iGrok is pointing out. Nothing scummy about iGrok at this point.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 05 2011 18:21 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:16 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:16 Lafali wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:09 omgCRAZY wrote:
With this being a newbies game I wouldn't be surprised that someone wants to get a handle on the game.

What I find interesting is how aprudds was so quick to get everyones attention focused on someone else and how the game has barely started and yet cherubael and Jimboo are already throwing out votes.


His subsequent posts were fishy. Due to that I hopped on the voting bandwagon along with them. Its a 40 player game, I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches. Regardless, we should continue scumhunting. We do have 48 hours.

Yeah,two SHORT posts about his SC2 mafia experience,fishy as heck."I hopped on voting bandwagon" What? Only Scum bandwagons. "I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches" WHAT THE FUCK? No,we can't afford mislynch for the sake of mislynching. Someone gives red vibes? WE LYNCH HIM. Someone made dumb question once,while Scummy Rats like You run around and we should lynch him? I will drop Treadmill for now,because You're infinitely more scummy than him.

The more that you yell,
The more attention you get.
Keep up the noise, Joe


[/sarcasm]

Even if you are town, and its too early to throw accusations out, you're playing TERRIBLY anti-town. Again, Chill.

Again makes Kurumi out to be very anti-town.

Yes, he calls out Kurumi again. Is this suspicious? No. iGrok is staying consistent with his warnings to Kurumi that his wild accusations and rude posts only hurt his credibility if he is town.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 05 2011 18:31 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:25 Kurumi wrote:
EDWOP:
I write "You" with capital Y because I feel like and it is Polish thing.
I call Scum/people I am suspicious of Rats. Get over it.


No haiku for this,
The point is too short for one.
Just a simple note


Do shit like this, you're going to piss people off. Pissing people off is a good way to die. Dying does not help your team at all (at least in this game). You know this, you've played several games. Don't fuck over the newbies because you want to be obnoxious.

As far as your "slips" go:

Lafali, from what I can tell, is a newbie who bandwagonned, read my post warning against bandwagons, and unvoted.

Treadmill: He said we should wait, and every point of evidence is important no matter how small. Great reason to vote him.

Point grew after I wrote the haiku :p

Starts getting interesting. He defends Lafali as a nooby and defends Treadmill (who begin to reason as scum lately).

Yes he defended lafali but at this early point in the game lafali is not clear mafia. This can go either way depending on which propaganda mill you subscribe to. If you assume he’s town,perhaps he’s gratified that someone listened to his advice about bandwagoning and unvoted. If he is town, lafali can very well look like an unexperienced townie who just voted too early. If you assume he’s mafia, then of course you’ll make the leap from “iGrok defended a member of the mafia” therefore it’s very likely that he is mafia. His defense of lafali is inconclusive at best of whether or not he’s mafia or not. Don’t read too much into it.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 05 2011 23:54 iGrok wrote:
Pay no heed to us
Prior warnings of misdeeds.
Vote without a post.


again, [/sarcasm]


Drazerk, you did NOT just read the thread, SEE that people were warned against voting without posting, and then vote without posting. Right?

Calls out Drazerk for not posting before voting. Boring.

Yes. It’s boring, but it’s important for the town to pressure people who vote without any explanation.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 06 2011 07:57 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 04:49 GGQ wrote:
On June 06 2011 03:44 gtrsrs wrote:
hi everyone i'm back
my thoughts so far:
- jesus christ, 7 pages of nothing
- freeloader asked an innocuous question that was stupid but not scummy IMO

in fact he made it quite clear the reasons he was asking:
On June 05 2011 12:44 freeloader625 wrote:
Omg I'm so excited for this. I read all the rules twice and just want to ask to anyone willing to answer (before the game starts) since these were not answered in the thread rules:

1) Since PMs are not allowed, how would mafia communicate with each other?
2) Once someone dies whether it be by votes or mafia hit, will their roles be revealed?


and then everyone ignored the fact that he asked another innocuous question too. clinging to false evidence ITT?

- unfortunately it looks like a slip so i can see him getting lynched today
- if he flips town, we'll need to re-evaluate the people who pushed for his lynch
- dude who keeps posting haikus, please stop, that's thread derailment and very scummy. i can't even read your posts. i do not think there are any posting restrictions so only post what you HAVE to
- that being said, i'm going to vote for you because i don't want to jump on the freeloader bandwagon (nor do i want to try and counterbandwagon onto aprudds for calling him out)

- voting in this thread is not scummy, whoever said that. voting in this thread helps us keep track of bandwagons and reasoning behind votes. please vote in this thread when you vote in the voting thread.

- there are too many posts in this thread. you probably don't have anything to say at this point. don't post for posting's sake. when you do post, please make long, well-thought-out posts. short posts derail the thread. i think one of the pages had like 10 one-line posts and that's not acceptable. it allows mafia to "blend in" with the town by posting similarly.

- posts that have words but don't say anything are scummy

- kurumi is naturally an annoying, accusatory spammer, don't read into it too much (also no offense to kurumi)

- from what i've seen of his play in other games, jackal is a strong player. don't let his abrasive personality cloud your mind from his usually very-informative, rational posts. at the same time, please use your own judgment when reading his posts and decide for yourself if you come to the same conclusions. if he is mafia he will use his "upstandingness" to sheep us around.

##vote: iGrok


You didn't actually mention iGrok in your post, but you voted for him. More explaining please?

My Final Haiku:
I guess fun is not allowed.
Srs Bsns.


You, sir, have no sense of fun.

So let me get this straight - your reason for voting me is "Thread Derailment" and not wanting to vote for treadmill?

You do realize you could just -wait- to vote, right?

Honestly, those are some of the worst reasons to vote that I can think of. Particularly since your post is, aside from your "evidence" against me, just a regurgitation of other posts. Post some analysis, and good analysis not just bullshit like the above post.

You may be thinking, "Why haven't you (iGrok) posted strong analysis yet then?" And knowng you, and probably kurumi as well, there probably a "Scum!" (or "Rat!") thrown in there. The reason is that last night there was nothing to analyze yet, but I saw that the town was disintegrating really fast and I had to step up to try to stop that from happening. May analysis will come after 24 hours of game time, no sooner or later. I will focus on one person, selected without bias, and attempt to ascertain through their posts what their alignment is. Anyone who remembers me from Experiment Mafia 2, I was Pink2 - You remember my analysis of Blue, and how strong that was.

In closing, BE PATIENT. Talk, yes, Discuss, yes. Accuse, especially with as little actual substance has happened so far, no.

Again getting into a good towny position.

Getting into a good towny position is what a townie wants to do.

Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 08:14 blackone wrote:
Well, posting cute little haikus and being funny can lead to the suspicion that you have some kind of interest in being considered funny and friendly. Also, if you don't agree to that, why will you stop doing that now? It's not like gtrsrs can impose rules on how you have to post.

A mildly relevant post now as I am putting together evidence for us to consider if iGrok is scum.
iGrok then tells him it was his last haiku.
Vain explains that iGrok just wants attention and iGrok thanks him.
iGrok points out an edited post to mods.
iGrok makes a small tip on quoting.
iGrok tells someone not to report to mods but to let us self-moderate.
These last several posts aren't exactly worth much, but could serve to make it further clear that he is an experienced player to say the least.
CrjNinja posts some good analysis and condemns Lafali and naming Freeloader and Kurumi green.
iGrok asks Crj's opinion of himself (of iGrok).
Crj says he is an experienced player and says iGrok might be green but wants to wait until he makes any worth while post.

All I can really gleam from this is that he’s staying consistent to what’s he’s posted before. And yes, he is using the experience card. Is this necessarily a scummy thing to do? No. It can help him if he’s town OR if he’s mafia. And from our past experience with Jackal, we all realize what a powerful tool a claim to experience can be. So again, this purely depends on which bias one uses to analyze iGrok.

Show nested quote +

BREAK TIME

So far we have learned that iGrok first day has been utterly passive and is following his statement that he will not post anything worthwhile until after day 1, but has instead been using his time to get in our good graces by not stepping on any one's shoes as he wants to be liked by everyone. Currently (at the time of the above posts) I am kind of annoyed by him, but he seems like a very good player (even though he hasn't actually posted anything).

I don’t agree at all he’s being passive. He’s putting himself out there as being pro-town. Personally I think he fancies himself as the voice of reason amid the chaos of the freeloader bandwaggoning. Nothing wrong with that. Also, the claim that he’s careful not to step on anyone’s shoes is also incorrect. He had no problem rebuking Kurumi early on. Overall, I found him to be consistent with his posts and also pro-town. I can already hear your whispers of “maybe too pro-town”. But again I stress this entirely depends on which bias you take. Maybe he’s pro-town because he is town?

Show nested quote +

/END BREAK

iGrok now posts about how he will post a big analysis soon.
iGrok explains how redFF isn't actually playing the game.
WARNING BIG POST – finally iGrok's big analysis post. This should be fun.
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 06 2011 15:18 iGrok wrote:
[image loading]

Its time for some analysis.

For Science.

EDITED MY OWN SPOILERS SO YOU CAN SKIP THE NOOB GUIDE
+ Show Spoiler +


This post will be long. And split into two parts. The first part will be setup analysis. The second part will be a post-by-post analysis of Kurumi. There will be no tl;dr. Welcome to Mafia ^^.

Let's begin.




Setup: 40 players. 1/5 are scum. Scum have 4 kp N1, and D1 is rarely a scum lynch (sad but true). However, there are medics and vets, so assume D2: 36 players - 28 Town 8 scum, or .222 scum. Now we're getting somewhere.

Because of the scum %, which is slightly high for a large game (large games tend to help scum get lost in the noise), and based on Town traditionally having more PRs anyways, I guarantee tht Town has a greater number of PRs. Probably 150-250%.

I'll analyze Scum roles first so we can get a rough estimate of the number of blue roles.

8 Scum. 1 GF. There are definitely not more than 50% PRs on the red team. That would be absurd for a newbie-friendly game. Therefore, 2-3 RBs. 3 RBs is a little high, so I'll guesstimate 2. This leave us with 3 PRs on scum.

Blue Roles

Detective: In this game, Detectives (Also known as Cops and DTs) check Role in addition to alignment. This makes DT a VERY powerful role. However, there is probably more than 1 - having only one makes the game to easy to be swung with a lucky snipe. Therefore, I'd guess there are 2 DTs.

Medics and Vets: Lately, theres been a tendency to display both but only give out one or the other of these roles. In this case, however, I will assume both. Likely 2 Medics (for the same reason as 2 DTs - if one gets sniped thats just bad luck) and 1 Vet. Veterans kind of get their own kind of weighting when it comes to balancing teams. You know it will be useful if town is losing, but it does nothing active to help them. Veterans help to stabilize the game and make it less swing-y, which is exactly what you want for a newbie game.

Lastly, Vigilantes. Knowing Meapak, theres at least one, probably 2 Vigilantes. Vigilantes can be the town saviors. Particularly in a game like this, the faster we can whittle down Mafia KP the better off we'll be. Vigis should take note of who presses for and opposes a lynch, and when we see the results, act accordingly - probably NOT before N2 though.

Note that I do not count vets toward Power Role balance because they are so weak. Also Vigis only count for 75% of a PR because they can do more harm than good. Role cops, on the other hand, count for 150% of a PR. Yes, they are that strong.

Black Roles
Traditionally, Black roles are 3rd party, but since there aren't any sks, I'm counting Miller as a black role.

Miller is the bane of any cop. Every check you make that comes back Goon is less usefull. You can't confirm that he's anti town (though feel free to pressure them and see if they crack!). Millers count as -50% of a PR to Town. I would be VERY surprised if there were more than 1 Miller in this game, and certainly not more than two.

So, in summary:
5 Goons, 2 RBs, 1 GF = 3 PRs
2 DTs, 2 Medics, 1 Vet, 2 Vigis = 6.5 PRs
1 Miller = -.5 PRs


Total of 6:3 - Perfect - 200%

Is that guaranteed to be accurate? No. But its probably pretty close.

Now on to Analysis!




Today's subject is Kurumi.
The black does not mean I think he's a miller, it means I don't know yet.


So, post by post:

Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:03 Kurumi wrote:
Freeloader tries to justify SC2 Mafia as real Mafia experience,I'd go with noobtown,yeah.
Now lets sniff for potential bandwagoners...

Manages to insult Freeloader and defend him at the same time. His next move, searching for bandwagonners, is a good idea, although its really not too hard to search through the 6 post long vote thread :p. Nothing to really note here except attitude.

Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:07 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 13:47 Treadmill wrote:
It is a good spot, aprudds. We should keep an eye on freeloader625.

Jimbooo, we do have to lynch somebody. Being "hasty" isn't really a concern. And somebody with next to no evidence against them is a better lynch than everyone else with no evidence against them at all. Still, 48 hours yet.

What? Bad lynches are good lynches? Are You a stupid Rat or You're a Noobtown? Lynch is the most IMPORTANT tool town gets.
##vote Treadmill

This is either a misread or a mislead. I immediately noted 2 things here: the ridiculously aggressive attitude was one. Treadmill is saying here that we need to use every bit of evidence, and that at the moment we had very little but it was enough to start. I might not have completely agreed with Treadmill, but I didn't think he was scum because of it. Kurumi is apparently convinced enough by this post that Treadmill is scum to vote - after he's yelled at others for voting based on little to no evidence.

Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:11 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 14:12 Lafali wrote:
Good catch by aprudds. A townie wouldn't need to know that information. However, he could be new. There are 40 people in this game though, so its not like its mylo.

My God,so many Rats running between my legs! No,we can't lynch the guy because of one thing.
We should be suspicious WHY the bandwagon formed so FAST on such shitty evidence. It is not mylo,but we must use lynch to it's best.

Literally this is what happened: Lafali says "aprudds has a point, but it could mean nothing. Fortunately, its not the end of the world if we fuck up." Kurumi continues his hyper-aggression. Lafali's post meant nothing - he may as well have not posted. Based on this, Kurumi accuses Lafali of being scum.+ Show Spoiler +
Granted, it was a useless post - a scummy thing to do with good player meta, but as a newbie Lafali probably felt (s)he should contribute something.


Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:16 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:16 Lafali wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:09 omgCRAZY wrote:
With this being a newbies game I wouldn't be surprised that someone wants to get a handle on the game.

What I find interesting is how aprudds was so quick to get everyones attention focused on someone else and how the game has barely started and yet cherubael and Jimboo are already throwing out votes.


His subsequent posts were fishy. Due to that I hopped on the voting bandwagon along with them. Its a 40 player game, I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches. Regardless, we should continue scumhunting. We do have 48 hours.

Yeah,two SHORT posts about his SC2 mafia experience,fishy as heck."I hopped on voting bandwagon" What? Only Scum bandwagons. "I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches" WHAT THE FUCK? No,we can't afford mislynch for the sake of mislynching. Someone gives red vibes? WE LYNCH HIM. Someone made dumb question once,while Scummy Rats like You run around and we should lynch him? I will drop Treadmill for now,because You're infinitely more scummy than him.


This should be pretty self-explanatory. + Show Spoiler [In case its not,] +
More hyper-aggression


Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:23 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 18:21 iGrok wrote:
On June 05 2011 18:16 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:16 Lafali wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:09 omgCRAZY wrote:
With this being a newbies game I wouldn't be surprised that someone wants to get a handle on the game.

What I find interesting is how aprudds was so quick to get everyones attention focused on someone else and how the game has barely started and yet cherubael and Jimboo are already throwing out votes.


His subsequent posts were fishy. Due to that I hopped on the voting bandwagon along with them. Its a 40 player game, I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches. Regardless, we should continue scumhunting. We do have 48 hours.

Yeah,two SHORT posts about his SC2 mafia experience,fishy as heck."I hopped on voting bandwagon" What? Only Scum bandwagons. "I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches" WHAT THE FUCK? No,we can't afford mislynch for the sake of mislynching. Someone gives red vibes? WE LYNCH HIM. Someone made dumb question once,while Scummy Rats like You run around and we should lynch him? I will drop Treadmill for now,because You're infinitely more scummy than him.

The more that you yell,
The more attention you get.
Keep up the noise, Joe


[/sarcasm]

Even if you are town, and its too early to throw accusations out, you're playing TERRIBLY anti-town. Again, Chill.

Because I draw discussion from terrible freeloader bandwagon? I don't throw accusations out,they've slipped already. Treadmill and Lafali both advocate mislynches and not thinking before lynching. They hopped on bandwagon and they will.


This is actually a very interesting post. As you can see, Kurumi is mis-representing both Lafali and Treadmill. Neither of them "advocate mis-lynches", they simply stated that a mislynch was ok, and even probable. Neither of them are anti-town, and Treadmill is actually playing pro-town.

Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:31 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 18:28 Sprungjeezy wrote:
Kurumi, you come off as a towny that is reading too far into too little. It's important to remember that this game is full of beginners and important to remember people will try to take advantage of that, but people will still make mistakes such as hopping on a bandwagon without really thinking into it.

Time for bed for me though. Cya tomorrow.

No. Scum wants Town to mislynch. Scum wants Town not to think about other suspects. Scum wants to make Town jump on one bandwagon and deny EVERY discussion about anything else. They are doing that,not only but they're advocating that as a good thing.

This is a very true post. That is precisely what scum wants. Its important to note that scum also wants to cause as much chaos in the town as possible as well.

Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 18:33 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 18:31 iGrok wrote:
On June 05 2011 18:25 Kurumi wrote:
EDWOP:
I write "You" with capital Y because I feel like and it is Polish thing.
I call Scum/people I am suspicious of Rats. Get over it.


No haiku for this,
The point is too short for one.
Just a simple note


Do shit like this, you're going to piss people off. Pissing people off is a good way to die. Dying does not help your team at all (at least in this game). You know this, you've played several games. Don't fuck over the newbies because you want to be obnoxious.

As far as your "slips" go:

Lafali, from what I can tell, is a newbie who bandwagonned, read my post warning against bandwagons, and unvoted.

Treadmill: He said we should wait, and every point of evidence is important no matter how small. Great reason to vote him.

Point grew after I wrote the haiku :p

Scum will unvote after someone called it out to remain 'unsuspicious". Also why the heck Town would lynch person generating discussion and bringing scummy suspects? Scum would like to lynch me,but they can just kill me at night.

Just read it.

Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 20:52 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 20:29 Benjef wrote:
##Vote Treadmill


On June 05 2011 20:30 Benjef wrote:
##Unvote Treadmill
##Vote: freeloader625


You better post there.

The one super-pro-town thing he's done all game! Catching silent voters is SUPER important, particularly in a large game like this.

Show nested quote +
On June 05 2011 21:40 Kurumi wrote:
@Pyo (Pyo voted for Kurumi and pointed out that Kurumi got lynched D1 last game)
Because Your arguments are dumb I am going to ignore You.
A tip: In mafia XXXIX I was spreading chaos in the Town,also I was really scummy. I wasn't talkative,I was spammy. If You want any meta reads,go check PYPI and PTP.

Pyo calls him out, Kurumi admits to spreading chaos in the town the game before.

Pyo asks Kurumi for a list of "experienced players"
On June 05 2011 22:45 Kurumi wrote:
Jackal58 - he is very good
GGQ - I think he is there for at least short while
Me
Impervious from replacements played a bit there too
gtrsrs played one game I think.

You're not going to participating in lynching the most scummy player Pyo? While I understand place holder votes You need to know that people like me will remember that. I want to see a good post after You're back.

Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself.

On June 05 2011 23:20 Kurumi wrote:
By the most scummy player I meant Your suspicion. An example of good post would be an analysis pointing out the biggest slips of player X leading Town in a Scum lynch.Remember though: there's nothing wrong about being wrong(unless You're redtooth,then You commit suicide on Day 3) A good post could be summing up who attacked who and who defended who + Your thoughts about it. Everything that generates discussion is good. You must remember though,that without good evidence there's probably no point in bringing something new,because this will cause chaos.
Pyo,it is too fast for scum to bus too. Freeloader's situation is really uncertain. His small,but bandwagon is based on shitty evidence. "He asked a question,no townie would ask it!" Think for a second. What would happen if Freeloader was scum? Someone would pm him and tell him everything he needed to know,makes sense? Hell yes.
We aren't that vindictive,don't worry <3 But there are players who are magnets,namely Radfield and Kavdragon,who like to die Day/Night 1.

Kurumi hasn't been here that long, but he's clearly read up on his mafia. He knows the names of some older players. He is correct in that all discussion is good discussion, but (IMO)there are certain methods of generating it that do no good to town because they cause too much chaos. Still, point in his favor though.

On June 05 2011 23:53 Kurumi wrote:
Bussing is when You vote for lynch/kill Your Mafia buddy to make Yourself less suspicious/earn town cred,mostly happens when there's no way to save him/perform some gambit or wicked trickery.
Well,it is rather safe to assume that anyone who got assigned as Godfather is going to help his newbie Mafia bros as fast as possible - he is probably one of the "better" players,but this might be a mislead. Also as far I remember in my PYPI pm I had mafia list and that I can PM them etc. etc.,while it wasn't a "noob game" I strongly believe that there everything a new player should know about his role/alignment.

Not much to say about this. Slightly pro-town I guess? Kinda obvious stuff, but I'm giving people a pass on obvious stuff this game because its a newbie game and so not everything IS obvious.

On June 06 2011 00:07 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 00:01 aprudds wrote:
On June 05 2011 23:20 Kurumi wrote:
By the most scummy player I meant Your suspicion. An example of good post would be an analysis pointing out the biggest slips of player X leading Town in a Scum lynch.Remember though: there's nothing wrong about being wrong(unless You're redtooth,then You commit suicide on Day 3) A good post could be summing up who attacked who and who defended who + Your thoughts about it. Everything that generates discussion is good. You must remember though,that without good evidence there's probably no point in bringing something new,because this will cause chaos.
Pyo,it is too fast for scum to bus too. Freeloader's situation is really uncertain. His small,but bandwagon is based on shitty evidence. "He asked a question,no townie would ask it!" Think for a second. What would happen if Freeloader was scum? Someone would pm him and tell him everything he needed to know,makes sense? Hell yes.
We aren't that vindictive,don't worry <3 But there are players who are magnets,namely Radfield and Kavdragon,who like to die Day/Night 1.


Kurumi, you're talking for the sake of talking and stirring up too many accusations without any discussion or analysis. Talk is good, blind accusations are bad.
This makes chaos and makes it hard to focus on one thing at a time. (AGAIN)

There isn't much to go on right now. Here's what happened:

1 guy asked a dumb question. Scum Scale: *----
3 guys bandwaggonned. Scum Scale: **---
2-3 people throw around un-called-for accusations. Scum Scale: ***--

Oh, and Pyo called you out on being an ass.

If you are an experienced player like you say, you should know that rapidly throwing out multiple low impact accusations just lead to you getting ignored or lynched :/

@Pyo
You need somewhere to get a discussion started. The accusation was arbitrary, but it's the best thing there was after the roles got pmed and before the game started.
After everyone starts posting their mind on this there will be a greater pool of posts to look over.

My dumbness meter went over 9000.
Before saying "HURR DURR YOU DID NOTHING" read my posts. I brought evidence why I think they're scum.


aprudds (the originator of the whole "Freeloader Debacle") gives a nice, concise analysis of whats gone on in the game, and (in the @Pyo section), explains what his reasoning was for the first accusation. + Show Spoiler [Mini aprudds read] +
IMO, it seems that aprudds and Kurumi actually have similar philosophies, its just that aprudds doesn't piss off as many people along the way.
Kurumi pulls an OMGUS (Oh My God You Suck) and heavily insults aprudds.


On June 06 2011 00:18 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 00:08 Jackal58 wrote:
I believe this is Kurumi's 4th game. Maybe counting a mini game.
He was lynched day one in the first game I played with him.
He has outed himself as our SK in the second game I've played with him.
Don't assume he's experienced. He's not.

I played in XXXIX then PYPI then PTP now there.

This is Kurumi's prior experience. Note that in one of these games he was lynched D1.

Vain steps in to defend Treadmill and aprudds.
On June 06 2011 00:27 Kurumi wrote:
@Vain
Let aprudds defend himself.

On June 06 2011 00:30 Kurumi wrote:
EDWOP:
I meant,let him play by himself,he does not need Your help.
The evidence is simple: They support bad lynches,they say that we can waste lynches,they want Town to make quick decision which they didn't think about enough

We've been over this - No they don't.

On June 06 2011 03:41 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 03:29 Jackal58 wrote:
On June 06 2011 01:27 DeMorcerf wrote:I do not understand what you mean by this, sorry. Can you clarify whether "insane" is a good thing or a bad thing in this context; and what does "tunnel the roster" mean?

Insane as in crazy. Not good at all.
Tunneling is when you pick one player and call him/her scum for the entire game.

Kurumi has taken it to an entirely new level.


Sorry but Palmar and RedFF are better at tunneling everyone than me >:C

Tunnelling is still bad -_-. However, I don't think Kurumi is tunnelling this game. He's just accusing everyone who disagrees with him of being scum.

On June 06 2011 03:52 Kurumi wrote:
Hey guys voting on freeloader bandwagon,are You willing to post? (Drazerk,grush57)

Continuing to prod Silent Voters. Pro-town. Really unexpected.

On June 06 2011 04:05 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 04:02 Lafali wrote:
On June 05 2011 18:16 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:16 Lafali wrote:
On June 05 2011 15:09 omgCRAZY wrote:
With this being a newbies game I wouldn't be surprised that someone wants to get a handle on the game.

What I find interesting is how aprudds was so quick to get everyones attention focused on someone else and how the game has barely started and yet cherubael and Jimboo are already throwing out votes.


His subsequent posts were fishy. Due to that I hopped on the voting bandwagon along with them. Its a 40 player game, I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches. Regardless, we should continue scumhunting. We do have 48 hours.

Yeah,two SHORT posts about his SC2 mafia experience,fishy as heck."I hopped on voting bandwagon" What? Only Scum bandwagons. "I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches" WHAT THE FUCK? No,we can't afford mislynch for the sake of mislynching. Someone gives red vibes? WE LYNCH HIM. Someone made dumb question once,while Scummy Rats like You run around and we should lynch him? I will drop Treadmill for now,because You're infinitely more scummy than him.


I'm new to mafia forum games like this and mostly used to smaller and faster-paced ones where taking a risk on a mislynch is pretty common as long as the game is not mislynch-lose. The subsequent posts from treadmill seemed fishy and people started to vote for him and at that point he was the only one looking suspicious to me. However, after reading more into the thread it seemed like a bad idea to vote so early, and it would be better to wait for any tells, and then on day two, cop reports.

Treadmill is suspicious to You? You both are doing the same thing. Also thanks for excuse,I enjoy eating them. Because they're yummy. Why would DT report on Day 2? It is an easy target for Mafia,even when med protected they can just stack on him. Why are You spreading bad ideas?

Kurumi points out that DTs shouldn't report on D2 since mafia can stack kills. This is an excellent point - DTs should wait until they have something useful to report before revealing themselves. I don't understand the first half of this post, so I'm ignoring it lol.

On June 06 2011 05:37 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 05:33 supersoft wrote:
On June 06 2011 01:32 TheAwesomeAll wrote:
DeMorcef thanks a lot, how do you check it? or do you just remember?
+ Show Spoiler +


1. Munk-E
2. blackone
amazingxkcd
6. teamsolid
8. Alderan
10. Drazerk has voted but not posted
15. TranceStorm
18. monsterDrakar
21. supersoft
23. Xedat
24. grush57
25. Date_Reaper
26. CjrNinja
33. Clicker
34. Kairo
36. gtrsrs
38. tdAdonis
40. GGQ


UPDATED LIST plz ignore the previous one, credits to morcerf <3


this list doesn't tell anything about the people on the list... Maybe they're just lurking like I was.
You can delete me from that list btw.

This post can be treated like it never happened,You know? What are Your thoughts on freeloader bandwagon? Who's Your scum suspect #1?

Asking questions, its been a bit since he last posted an opinion of his own (aside from other people are "Rats"). Nothing really here.+ Show Spoiler [Tiny supersoft read here] +
Admitting to lurking and doing nothing but saying 'hey look I'm not lurking' is terrible.


On June 06 2011 05:54 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 05:52 supersoft wrote:
On June 06 2011 05:37 Kurumi wrote:
On June 06 2011 05:33 supersoft wrote:
On June 06 2011 01:32 TheAwesomeAll wrote:
DeMorcef thanks a lot, how do you check it? or do you just remember?
+ Show Spoiler +


1. Munk-E
2. blackone
amazingxkcd
6. teamsolid
8. Alderan
10. Drazerk has voted but not posted
15. TranceStorm
18. monsterDrakar
21. supersoft
23. Xedat
24. grush57
25. Date_Reaper
26. CjrNinja
33. Clicker
34. Kairo
36. gtrsrs
38. tdAdonis
40. GGQ


UPDATED LIST plz ignore the previous one, credits to morcerf <3


this list doesn't tell anything about the people on the list... Maybe they're just lurking like I was.
You can delete me from that list btw.

This post can be treated like it never happened,You know? What are Your thoughts on freeloader bandwagon? Who's Your scum suspect #1?


I don't have a scum suspect on day1. It's too early to judge anyone.
It's just not reasonable to randomlynch someone in the first round, before we got to know each other a little bit.

We can't no lynch. There needs to be a lynch every Day.

True.

And thats the last post he made. It may be time related. That was ~10 hours ago, possibly sleeping.


So, what can we take from all this?

Kurumi is a very aggressive player known for causing chaos. He has cast suspicion on many people, mostly those who argued with him. He has also thrown in some genuinely Pro-town things into his posting. Its very difficult to make a final call, but...

I believe that Kurumi is Scum. In my opinion, his Pro-town points were thrown in at random or very obvious to remove suspicion from him. However, I must take into account that I may have been biased, as well as his pro-town things. Because of this, I do not advocate a Kurumi Lynch D1. Instead, I think that Kurumi should be our prime DT target. Knowledge of his alignment will undoubtedly help us determine who is scum and who is town.

GGQ, Jackal, Vain, I'd particularly appreciate it if you would weigh in here.





To new players, this is a complete, thorough analysis of a player. You don't have to do things like this. But you'll be a much better player if you do, even if you don't post it (there are times not to, like if you realize someone is a DT or Medic). Go forth and analyze!

Now most of this post is directed at Kurumi who I feel is enemies with iGrok at this time, and assuming iGrok is GF, he doesn't want Kurumi to continue tunneling himself so he shifts focus to Kurumi. As iGrok doesn't want to appear suspicious himself he suggests a DT check Kurumi.

Some of your points are absurd. He doesn’t want to appear suspicious so he asks a dt check on Kurumi. What… did you want him to ask for a dt check on himself? Let’s break it down. If he’s gf, he would welcome a dt. If he’s town, he knows that he himself is town and knows that utilizing a dt check on himself would be a waste. You assume he accuses Kurumi to put the public scrutiny on Kurumi and off himself. Think about this way. Before he posted this: Kurumi, pyo, gtrsrs are tunneling him. After this is posted: Kurumi, pyo, gtrsrs are still tunneling him. If he wanted to stop the pressure from tunneling, this was not meant to accomplish that. Assume he’s town. He provides a real analysis of someone we’d all like to know better, a high-interest person: Kurumi, probably one the most wild-card player in the game. Also the immediate claims of fishing for blues is bullshit for reasons already stated on other posts. It was just a weak excuse to tunnel someone even further.

Now I would like to point out this out
Show nested quote +
“Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself. “

This is what I call true irony. This whole game until now has been iGrok expressing his experience and not stepping on anyone’s toes and making the town does not act hastily in their lynch. He is letting us make the first mistake (with information, not lynches) by not posting anything worth reading (he can't slip anything important if he never posts anything important while we make accusations and force each other to defend ourselves..

I personally thought that the analysis on iGrok was a worthwhile read…. But anyways as I have stated before, an establishment of greater experience will help someone regardless of whether or not he is mafia. If you want to stubborn minded about it and believe iGrok is gf without a doubt, why aren’t also calling out Kurumi who did the same thing.
Immediately after this is posted gtrsrs calls iGrok out on still being his prime suspicion even though he provided a long analysis.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 06 2011 15:40 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 15:31 gtrsrs wrote:
for the record, fishing for blues is scummy

Is this in response to anything?

you're still my prime FoS, iGrok, no matter how long your post is

With how quickly you jumped on me based on nothing, I'd expect nothing less. Perhaps though, you should read the post instead of remarking at its length. And then perhaps you should run an analysis of me.

In fact, I'd like to see you do a post-by-post analysis of me. Will you do that? You might be surprised at what you find. For example, in Experiment Mafia II, I ran a post-by-post analysis of the player "Blue1", who I believed to be quite scummy and who was under a lot of suspicion at the time. However, upon going through it, I was forced to conclude that he was actually Town. Town won on Day 3.

iGrok then asks for a post by post analysis of himself – which until now has been literally 100%
white noise and even this analysis is an extremely passive against Kurumi.
iGrok now posts that hes asking flamewheel to edit the formatting so he doesn't get in trouble and his posts looks prettier.
iGrok then states that his PR formulas aren't 100% accurate, but are generally pretty useful.

I think you and I have different definitions of passive. Also you claiming he’s passive is contrary to your argument that iGrok is putting himself out there as a person to be trusted based on experience. Let’s be frank here. iGrok wants gtrsrs to do a post by post analysis himself. Lets construe it as if iGrok is a town. iGrok is confident in his alignment so he is unafraid to ask someone to do an analysis on himself. Also he knows that gtrsrs has pretty much nothing conclusive on him. I suggest everyone read through pyo and gtrsrs’s posts and see exactly where the origin of this tunneling came from. It is lol worthy.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 06 2011 16:20 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 16:04 gtrsrs wrote:
here is my scum hunt
you post haiku's in a game where posting anything more than necessary is distracting and derailing
you try to find the town's blues so that the mafia can know what they're up against
the one thing that the town has as an advantage is that the mafia doesn't know our PRs and here you are spelling the info out for them

even if you're not mafia, your two biggest contributions so far are anti-town

everyone i encourage you to ##vote: iGrok and watch how he (and others) react as the votes pile up. putting the pressure on someone is a good way to find mafia. watch the people that come to defend him and how they do so and then when he flips red, go after them next

Okay, this is not an analysis. Everyone please note how bad this is.

But as a refutation,

I posted haikus because I wanted to, and every single one had a purpose.
I did not try to find out the town's blues. I tried to guess the setup. This helps town out just as much as it helps scum out, if not more so. If you disagree, I want to know why, in explicit detail.
Mafia doesn't know who is what PR, or even how many - they can only guess, same as me. Same point as above.

If you count both of those as my only two contributions, I'll be able to simply ignore you as a terrile player. The analysis of Kurumi, and holding town together from fracturing immediately should also be in there. As well as explaining several concepts for the newer players.

On June 06 2011 16:11 gtrsrs wrote:
in fact i think kurumi is doing the right thing. we have nothing to go on on day 1. there are a lot of inexperienced players. lots of times if a new player is mafia and you insinuate that they're mafia they get really defensive. even if they know that you're accusing everyone, new players can slip up when you get around to accusing them. so i think kurumi is just trying to shake out some baddie mafias.

I went through your post history - when exactly have you played before? I know you're big in the LoL subforum, but all I could find regarding mafia was as a replacement in SNMM3 and a late /in for Newbie Mini Mafia I. Just curious because you're acting like you have some knowledge of how newbies play vs how experienced people play.

Basically he calls out gtrsrs on being a noob, even though his accusation against iGrok is pretty accurate.
CrjNinja comes in and says he disagrees with his analysis on Kurumi.

DO NOT base an argument on accuracy unless there are contradictions in someone’s posts. The better question to ask is “Is this significant?” NO. He is calling him a noob because these “accurate” statements in no way conclusively paint iGrok as mafia. Let’s boil it down to the facts. iGrok makes haikus and he posts what he believes the set-up is. If he is mafia, why let the town know? He can easily tell this information in the mafia chat. He made haikus. Oh noes… it’s so distracting he must be mafia. This is really the flimsiest reason for an accusation to have ever been uttered.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 06 2011 16:36 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2011 16:20 CjrNinja wrote:
@ iGrok
I disagree with your player analysis. I think Kumuri is taking a very pro-town initiative by putting a lot of pressure on inexperienced players. It's a good opportunity to gauge reactions and hopefully pick up on a scum slip if the accused can't handle the pressure ^^
Also, the less attention towards blue roles, the better... last thing town needs is an inexperienced playing letting slip his blue role on day1.
Disagreement is fine! I'm a huge fan of actual discussion about things - but someone had to start the analysis, and the little quotes we were getting before are much more annoying to deal with. As I said, I'm not completely certain on Kurumi, but if I had to choose I'd say scum. Thats why I asked for a DT check.

Regarding my 'focus on blue roles', which I take you and gtr to mean my Setup Analysis, what I love most about Mafia is the mechanics, and so I'm going to try to work those out as best I can. Since neither mafia nor town knew (or knows now) how many of each role there are, I haven't really done anything. However, with rough, probable numbers, we can work out the best way to assign our blue powers. Blues are (arguably) the most important part of a mafia game - we should try to line up some good actions instead of just hoping for the best.

More people become suspicious of him and then gtrsrs posts

Again construing it to suit your needs. More people are not becoming suspicious of him. They are disagreeing with his conclusion. There is a difference. iGrok even later welcomes any disagreements. He provided his evidence and of course it won’t be 100% conclusive so there will be some who don’t agree.


- - - - - - - - - - -


In conclusion, I really want to stress that THIS IS NOT AN OPEN AND SHUT CASE. Lets summarize the points main against iGrok:


Claim to experience. Self-importance?
His posts try to paint a picture as him being “pro-town”
Defends lafali, accuses Kurumi
Got super defensive
“fishing for blues”


I would get defensive too if I got tunneled for stupid reasons. I pointed out the flaw in “fishing for blues”. The only way iGrok is justified as scum is to claim iGrok is godfather. Yes, you have a right to be skeptical if the only means of accusing someone is to claim he is godfather. For those of you bumrushing iGrok as mafia, I urge you to look at it in the point of view of town and you will see it is equally as valid. Overall, I am not saying he couldn’t be godfather but all the evidence is INCONCLUSIVE at best. I don’t even know how all of you are completely convinced of his wrongdoing. We all agree he is being pro-town and trying to assert his experience, but you take this as proof he is godfather when he can just as easily be a townie.




outlines the reasoning pretty well.

Something else: GGQ didn't post ANY suspicions of iGrok until literally 1 minute before the night post. So the notion that GGQ was killed to protect iGrok from his accusations is bogus.

iGrok is playing this as if its a newbie game (which it is). He's being a bit patronizing, a little "cutesy" and "unserious" perhaps, but that doesn't mean he reads as scum. In fact, look at his posting in older mafia games:

Insane Mafia 2 - iGrok was a blue. He posts less (which can be explained by being blue rather than green) but he offers his opinion on most things. He shows an interest in the game mechanics, asks a bunch of questions about that. He also answers other peoples noob-esque questions. And he posts some silly stuff, early on, like this:
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2011 08:08 iGrok wrote:
On March 24 2011 08:02 bumatlarge wrote:
On March 24 2011 07:35 GMarshal wrote:
You may be right, I mean each post only has a 2% chance of you dying to a horrible mod-kill anyway.

Oh, I'm going to guess that the number is 273. Am I right kita?


I may be crazy, BUT IT JUST MIGHT BE A LOOONATIC UR LUKING FOR


The lunatic is in my head,
The lunatic is in my head,
You raise the blade, you make the change,
You re-arrange me 'till I'm sane

That's his only other game that I can find - though he has referred to playing in another game with smurf IDs, etc. Couldn't track that down.

Anyways, in that other mafia he played, iGrok's early posts were mostly dominated by somewhat off-topic posting, like cutesy stuff, questions about the mechanics of the game, and answers to nooby questions. Does this sound similar? He was town when he did this last time.

Does this mean he's 100% innocent? NO. But it does mean that this kind of posting from iGrok is not evidence of his being some kind of scum mastermind. And when you disregard it the case against him looks rather slim.
[/b]
While ignoring the link to lafali altogether. Also voting Freeloader (who is certainly town since lafali voted for him) doesnt help youre case.
You posted your analysis of XKCD when iGrok was getting into trouble,

On June 08 2011 21:42 iGrok wrote:
[green]Haven't read it yet, but I'm going to go ahead and nominate Treadmill for the "Best Rookie (no pun intended) Award".

Hats off to you, doing analysis like a boss, standing up for what you think, and making really good reads on people (like the aforementioned Rookie).

dr Helvetica <3
TheAwesomeAll
Profile Joined January 2011
Netherlands1609 Posts
June 11 2011 07:04 GMT
#1191
youre timings were pretty unfortunate, why did you vote xkcd if you suspected he was DT?
dr Helvetica <3
Treadmill
Profile Joined July 2010
Canada2833 Posts
June 11 2011 07:12 GMT
#1192
On June 11 2011 16:04 TheAwesomeAll wrote:
youre timings were pretty unfortunate, why did you vote xkcd if you suspected he was DT?

I didn't. I thought he was red. I figured that if he wasn't he was definitely DT, but I was really thinking red.
Treadmill
Profile Joined July 2010
Canada2833 Posts
June 11 2011 07:21 GMT
#1193
EBWOP: to clarify, my point in that post was that xkcd spent a lot of day one asking about doing a DT check on Kurumi and saying how it wouldn't really be useful, and then on day 2 he was claiming that he DT checked Kurumi and knew 100% he was town (despite saying how a DT check could be beaten day 1) - it was something to make me more supicious of xkcd.
gtrsrs
Profile Joined June 2010
United States9109 Posts
June 11 2011 07:29 GMT
#1194
dude treadmill i'm not gonna lie
it's going to take moving a MOUNTAIN for me to not think you're red at this point
i mean your defense of iGrok was so long and so so wrong
like i said earlier i had you painted as a total townie earlier but the fact that you and iGrok kept giving each other handjobs in front of us and you guys entered like "IF WE GO DOWN WE GO DOWN TOGETHER" mode is just going to make it impossible for us to take you seriously now, i hope you realize. even if you ARE town you've just made a series of really bad blunders and it's going to take a miracle for us to not lynch you eventually

eventually

i want to stress that i think our efforts today are best spent pressuring Vain and grush57. one of these two is definitely mafia, likely both. while i think that Treadmill is also very likely mafia, my gut feeling on him isn't as strong as the other two. in either case, Treadmill posts both frequently and with much content. from this we can derive that if he is mafia he will (a) likely slip up in one of his essays, or (b) start to post less in order to minimize the chance of more huge errors. if either of these happens, we can jump on him instead. but as is now, let's allow him to help the town until he's our last option

one more thing tonight:
we have the godfather dead, there is no framer or lawyer, and only one miller. this means that DT checks are 95%+ accurate at this point (i.e. 1 in 26 chance that you get the miller, assuming that no DTs check kurumi or themselves at this point)
if you're a detective, and you get a guilty on someone, you NEED to let the town know without outing yourself. it is worth it to lynch anyone that flips red even though they've got a 1/6 chance of being the miller at this point. so get smart and find a way to let the town know. on the other hand, if you've got an innocent read on someone (which is 100% accurate), ONLY speak up if we're going to lynch your innocent.


also in memory of iGrok i will be posting haikus in all of my posts from now on
lol you died iGrok
and now i'm posting haikus
oh god irony
i play ... hearthstone =\^.^/= Winterfox
gtrsrs
Profile Joined June 2010
United States9109 Posts
June 11 2011 07:31 GMT
#1195
oh yeah and i'm gonna go ahead and throw the first pressure vote on grush57 so we can get this ball rolling and decide if it's worth it to pursue it or change directions while we have many hours left in the days

##vote: grush57
i play ... hearthstone =\^.^/= Winterfox
gtrsrs
Profile Joined June 2010
United States9109 Posts
June 11 2011 07:37 GMT
#1196
scratch that. i think the case against Vain is actually stronger and more well-analyzed and more people feel that he is mafia than grush57. gonna go ahead and pressure ##vote: Vain instead
i play ... hearthstone =\^.^/= Winterfox
blackone
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany1314 Posts
June 11 2011 08:42 GMT
#1197
I'm going to be away for the next ~36 hours, I'll try to catch up sunday night before the next vote.
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
June 11 2011 09:10 GMT
#1198
On June 11 2011 16:37 gtrsrs wrote:
scratch that. i think the case against Vain is actually stronger and more well-analyzed and more people feel that he is mafia than grush57. gonna go ahead and pressure ##vote: Vain instead


Vain didn't vote against amazinxdc.
iGrok was too valuable as GF for the mafia. They probably all voted against amazinxdc. therefor we have to kill these obvious scums from first.

my suggestion is either TheAwesomeAll or aprudds just by their votingbehaviour. I'll go through their posts later, maybe someone could help me out there a little.
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
June 11 2011 09:25 GMT
#1199
also this guy is very suspicious to me cherubael
I'm going to vote for him.


On June 11 2011 11:36 Pyo wrote:
I was going to do a post by post analysis of everyone that didn't vote for iGrok, but I'm just too lazy and only got through half of the list. Here are my analyses on some of them in case I die tonight. Nothing super conclusive here, but hopefully someone can use it to compare with their own notes:

Lurkers/low post counts:
Aril
+ Show Spoiler +
day 1 - kurumi
day 2 - jackal58

doesn't like voting for freeloader

defends accusation by cherubael

says he won't be on tomorrow and is voting ahead of time

makes a huge long list of random people - a ridiculous post combining "this will get me killed" and a huge long list of people, some of which are confirmed townies

sets up a script to parse posts - again says "yay for getting mafia killed because only a stupid confirmed townie would post this"

Munk-E
+ Show Spoiler +
Day 1 - lafali
Day 2 - amazingxkcd

analysis of freeloader, lafali, aprudds, TheAwesomeAll

goes after lafali

long analysis of amazingxkcd

cherubael
+ Show Spoiler +
Day 1 - freeloader
Day 2 - amazingxkcd

agrees with accusation of freeloader

again agreeing with accusation of freeloader

further aggression against freeloader; aggression toward Aril when he defends freeloader

aggression against 35spike

says case against xkcd is stronger than case against iGrok; aggression against supersoft; appologizes for inactivity

all around overly aggressive to everyone. I've sort of rethought my original position on him. he's probably not mafia (it would be odd for them to go around attacking everyone).

blackone
+ Show Spoiler +
Day 1 - freeloader
Day 2 - amazingxkcd

admonishes iGrok for haikus

analysis of freeloader; doesn't really reach any conclusion

points out that the voting for rookie is stupid

defends treadmill from kurumi accusation (don't remember context so can't interpret)

points out my errors in logic, says i might be scummy for trying to get the possibly existent 3rd target to keep quiet

confused by kurumi saying random shit

explaining vote for amazingxkcd after kurumi harasses him

more detail on why xkcd - says iGrok is probably GF, but case against xkcd is stronger


others:
Alderan
+ Show Spoiler +
day 1 - rookie
day 2 - xkcd

Defends freeloader as misguided town

again assess freeloader as just being new

explains that what kurumi does is not good

says that xkcd's first post is bad (stating the premise of the game)

points out xkcd's aggressive defense

list of suspicious people - first accusation of xkcd; also identifies grush as suspicious

formatting clarification

responds to iGrok's advice

declares his vote for xkcd; points out a contradiciton by iGrok

joke post

attempt to convince others not to vote for freeloader

welcomes impervious to the game

disagrees with TranceStorm

response to being called scum by jackal

isn't convinced rookie is blue-fishing

warns rookie that he'll get lynched if he doesn't defend himself

isn't convinced rookie is scum, but still votes for him for lack of a better target

disagrees with impervious about protecting experienced people under suspicion as mafia are likely to keep anyone under suspicion alive

suggests that if we have a medic that medic should decide for themselves who to protect

says that it is not jackal's fault that everyone bandwagoned rookie

again advocates lynching xkcd

advocates voting for xkcd, but keeping an eye on jackal and iGrok

explains vote for rookie as having missed the blue-tell

says xkcd should repost analysis of iGrok

"oh fuck" in response to xkcd flipping blue

"Wow..." in response to iGrok flipping GF

teamsolid
+ Show Spoiler +
day 1 - freeloader
day 2 - jackal58

thinks freeloader is suspicious, but warns against latching onto random posts and picking at tiny details; says mafia would likely be people that are lurking

suggests dt check for senj because of bandwagoning on rookie

comments on only 2 dying

praises GGQ's dying words; says only person we have solid evidence on is xkcd. Acknowledges that iGrok could be GF, but would be a big loss to town if he was town; thinks mafia would be lurking

seconds impervious's defense of iGrok (later post says he meant to quote heist's defense of iGrok); says that he doesn't think that any of iGrok's posts are suspicious. (CONTRADICTION: if they aren't suspicious, why do you acknowledge that iGrok could be GF).

brings up Ver's guide; says xkcd's post was good and analyzed people well; says he doesn't think xkcd is mafia anymore because why would mafia waste time making epic long postl decides to look into jackal more

further defends xkcd; points out that some think xkcd is DT

says a jackal post is scummy, defends xkcd, votes for jackal because he thinks xkcd is DT

says he was right about xkcd being DT (good read btw - I actually missed the discussion on xkcd possibly being a DT)

says jackal is top of his list; suspicious of Sprungjeezy, me, 35spike for "discrediting" xkcd; says later votes for xkcd are suspicious if iGrok flips GF

says I suck ;(

responds to me wondering why xkcd didn't save himself (turns out he shouldn't have had to, but w/e)

senj
+ Show Spoiler +
day 1 - rookie44
day 2 - amazingxkcd

defends freeloader

defends iGrok because iGrok is the only one to provide analysis so far

is suspicious of Jimbooo because of arguments brought up by TranceStorm

bandwagons on rookie after Jackal's misread

defends his rookie vote timing (given that xkcd is blue, i guess it could be a coincidence)

defends voting for rookie

apologizes for inactivity

long analysis post about Jimbooo and him being indecisive about voting during day 1, but doesn't explicitly accuse him but points out his indecision - ironic given that the post itself is him being indecisive.

pointing out that Jimbooo has disappeared from TL

responds to Kurumi asking if we should vigi shoot grush

responds to kurumi and TranceStorm

says he is still voting for Jimbooo, but is worried that he'll get modkilled so will analyze xkcd and iGrok

finds it weird that both iGrok and xkcd defend themselves; notices a slight contradiction between iGroks's statements; but as of this point it looks as if an iGrok lynch is inevitable

complains about tdAdonis's lack of posting.

encourages xkcd to defend himself

explains why he is voting for xkcd - "His day 1 activity, especially the first post and then several after attacking others for making fluff first posts are my basis here"

"Wow. I couldn't have been more wrong about anyone this game." Probably refering to all three of his accusees (rookie, jimbooo, xkcd)

heist
+ Show Spoiler +
day 1 - amazingxkcd
day 2 - Jimbooo

thinks freeloader's last two posts were suspicious

confusion about rolecounts

confusion cleared up

justifies making an inactives list

diverts attention away from iGrok toward grush57; analyzes grush's posting history to be mostly one-liners

advises people who voted for freeloader to reconsider; pushes going after lurkers; says grush, supersoft, lafali, amazingxkcd, and gtrsrs are suspicious. Says there are two strategies for how town should vote day 1 - doesn't make much sense

posts vote counts and wants to know why people voted for monstrerDrakar and Drazerk

criticizes supersoft's arbitrary vote. wants to get supersoft's read on the other person who voted monsterDrakar (Xedat)

"mafia will do whatever it takes to seem like a townie"

bad formatting making a quoted post look like his own; admonishing xkcd for being defensive and casting suspicioun on everyone and bandwagoning drazerk; says xkcd and rookie have similar chances of being scum

clarifies formating from previous post

really doesn't want people voting freeloader; really going after xkcd

noticed lafali unvoting freeloader after bandwagon started to change; noticed jimbooo did the same thing; accuses jimbooo, suggests killing xkcd as well.

declares that he's gunning for jimbooo

his expreience

defense that iGrok can't be GF because mafia wouldn't kill off a townie supporter of the GF (ignores the fact that iGrok had heat on him, so it was perfectly reasonable to try to establish cred)

says person who was hit should acknowledge that they were hit and survived.

long defense of iGrok. Seems like he's going really far out of his way to defend him.

it's clear heist really doesn't like me.

says kurumi is probably town given that xkcd flipped blue

heist
Profile Joined April 2011
United States720 Posts
June 11 2011 09:39 GMT
#1200
It's easy to say that Treadmill's analysis is dead wrong in hindsight. I can completely understand defending iGrok at that point in time. I personally wanted to avoid another bandwagon lynch. And you guys have to admit that you were presenting a very biased analysis which if looked at in another light could have just as easily held iGrok as townie. Don't know if it was iGrok's plan but I felt bad for the guy getting tunneled so hard haha.

Anyways I'm willing to admit I was wrong, but looking to our lynch, I also think grush57 is our main candidate. Bandwagoned freeloader early on, has mostly useless posts, and I feel like he voted for amazingxkcd as soon as he felt "safe" to do so (after Treadmill posted his defense and voted for amazing)
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