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On June 08 2011 13:54 Treadmill wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2011 13:26 Pyo wrote:
Yay!!! I'm alive - wasn't expecting that. Too bad about GGQ, I guess they wanted to take out experienced town. The other hit has me surprised. I'll have to go through his posts and try to figure it out.
So they hit our vet? Or we have another medic who happened to protect the right person. I disagree with Treadmill. If you were medic saved or vet, DO NOT SAY ANYTHING!!!! Keep them guessing whether you are the vet or whether we have a third medic. Town doesn't need to know that information only mafia would want you to reveal yourself. Treadmill just outed himself as scum.
Bullshit. The mafia already know who the third target was. That person coming forward doesn't say anything about whether he was saved by being a vet or by a medic (in fact, its a good point, Pyo, to emphasize that whoever got shot shouldn't say anything on the matter). I just think town knowing what the mafia knows is a good thing.
Yeah, you're definitely scum. Since you're scum, you aren't approaching it as townie would.
If it was a vet that got hit, there's nothing to exploit. no strategies can be used.
If it is a medic, then we're in luck and we have options available to us. But if mafia know that we have that medic, then they will go medic hunting.
Now it is undoubtedly a good thing for the mafia to not know which one, as it will in the worst case scenario cost them another KP to learn which it is.
However, if the person who survived the hit outs themselves, it can be figured out which it is based on their posting.
As a townie knowing who survived the hit doesn't benefit us in anyway. Not until next night when the next round of DT checks go out. It's not like their analysis of posting becomes any more accurate or informed.
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GGQ was hit because he was an experienced player and a townie - the less experienced voices out there the better for mafia - he also didn't really push any accusations super hard to make draw suspicion to anyone.
DeMorcerf was possibly hit because he was a suspected blue for lying low - or it was to reestablish cred for iGrok. He defended iGrok and he voted with iGrok (a point treadmill avoided making since he didn't want to further emphasize).
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I'll also bring attention to GGQ's final post because it has spot on analysis, which aligns perfectly with what I had been thinking as well.
Kurumi is just an obnoxious overzealous townie with behavior consistent across multiple mafia games.
iGrok is 100% scum. He defends lafali claims that his change of vote was a reaction to his post about bandwagons - clearly trying to engineer a scenario - which he never really made. He got super defensive after I joined with gtrsrs in voting for him (even though I said my voting for him was basically arbitrary - as if haikus actually matter).
Also the fact that I am still alive is a huge tell. I have been the most vocal against him and even all but declared myself dead at the hands of the mafia. If he had been town, I would be the perfect target for the mafia. Just think, I get hit and then suspicion falls on iGrok for real and he might get lynched. win-win for them right? But if he is mafia, then killing me would just bring more suspicion on him. For all his supposed experience, he's tripped up several times. Everyone should go through and read all his posts.
Also don't forget mafia powers. The GF can frame someone and the GF can hide his role to DT checks.
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On June 09 2011 02:11 amazingxkcd wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 09 2011 02:08 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2011 02:07 Jackal58 wrote:On June 09 2011 01:54 Kurumi wrote:
Why is everyone forgetting about Jackal and listing everyone who voted on rookie besides him,this is confuses me a lot,lol.
Also ask questions. I try to improve as much as I can. Can't deduce something out of my posts? Ask,I'll straighten them up and make them "readable". I dislike being ignored when I am not mafia,really. I loved it in PYPI,but here it is unnecessary. If we lynched a person every time they are wrong we'd have to lynch you 35 or 40 times today. Not saying that You're scum,just that's an interesting observation that they blame everyone besides You. I agree with this, and started to discuss this, but the main townies besides you aren't helping me with this. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/lVa9l.png)
xkcd grasping at straws in an attempt to divert attention away from himself?
The reason people are more or less forgiving jackal for initiating the voting on rookie is that (1) he isn't really coming off as scum in any of his other posts. (2) scum isn't likely to be the initiator of a lynch in day 1 - there's no need given there are sure to be so many innocents being accused (3) jackal is experience, but isn't really pushing anyone really hard or trying hard to make others follow him. Even if he is mafia, he isn't explicitly trying to influence town like iGrok is, for example. Therefore even if he is mafia, he isn't as big a threat as some of the other suspected mafia for whom we have more evidence against. In other words, he can - maybe should, i don't really know - be DT checked.
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On June 09 2011 04:50 gtrsrs wrote:wow even jackal told you to not blindly follow him and yet you all did Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 09:30 Jackal58 wrote:
I want to encourage all of you to think critically and independently.I have seen to many games where town herp derps themselves into oblivion by following one individual. If you have misgivings and doubts about my analysis on rookie by all means bring it up for discussion. If you believe you have found a better alternative by all means bring it forward.
well look at who initiated the bandwagoning (not the accusation), the following. As best I can tell (correct me if i'm wrong), but i think he was the first among the "experienced players" to actively advocate someone. However, the fact that no one paid any attention to this post by GGQ, but were reasonably quick to back off of freeloader makes me think that it was mafia that were the meat of rookie's lynching.
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There is something that I am still confused by. Why would the mafia double hit GGQ? They saw two medics die already so the likelihood that he would be protected was pretty low. He wasn't being overly bold with his statements like one might expect out of a vet. So why double hit him? Is this just mafia being stupid? What strategic reason could they possibly get by absolutely making sure he died rather than possibly taking out 3 people total, especially given that their KP had been reduced by 1 early in the game?
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On June 09 2011 05:30 gtrsrs wrote:
anyway those are my feelings. if iGrok isn't dead tomorrow maybe i'll be arsed to do a post-by-pretentious-post analysis of his misleadings, but instead, it'd be nice if you guys just looked over MY post telling you exactly what iGrok was going to do and then notice how he did it.
Fortunately, you don't have to. Sprungjeezy already did it here.
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On June 09 2011 10:32 heist wrote:Wanted to end on this. Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 04:34 Pyo wrote:On June 06 2011 03:44 gtrsrs wrote:hi everyone i'm back my thoughts so far: - jesus christ, 7 pages of nothing - freeloader asked an innocuous question that was stupid but not scummy IMO in fact he made it quite clear the reasons he was asking: On June 05 2011 12:44 freeloader625 wrote:
Omg I'm so excited for this. I read all the rules twice and just want to ask to anyone willing to answer (before the game starts) since these were not answered in the thread rules:
1) Since PMs are not allowed, how would mafia communicate with each other?
2) Once someone dies whether it be by votes or mafia hit, will their roles be revealed?
and then everyone ignored the fact that he asked another innocuous question too. clinging to false evidence ITT? - unfortunately it looks like a slip so i can see him getting lynched today - if he flips town, we'll need to re-evaluate the people who pushed for his lynch - dude who keeps posting haikus, please stop, that's thread derailment and very scummy. i can't even read your posts. i do not think there are any posting restrictions so only post what you HAVE to - that being said, i'm going to vote for you because i don't want to jump on the freeloader bandwagon (nor do i want to try and counterbandwagon onto aprudds for calling him out) - voting in this thread is not scummy, whoever said that. voting in this thread helps us keep track of bandwagons and reasoning behind votes. please vote in this thread when you vote in the voting thread. - there are too many posts in this thread. you probably don't have anything to say at this point. don't post for posting's sake. when you do post, please make long, well-thought-out posts. short posts derail the thread. i think one of the pages had like 10 one-line posts and that's not acceptable. it allows mafia to "blend in" with the town by posting similarly. - posts that have words but don't say anything are scummy - kurumi is naturally an annoying, accusatory spammer, don't read into it too much  (also no offense to kurumi) - from what i've seen of his play in other games, jackal is a strong player. don't let his abrasive personality cloud your mind from his usually very-informative, rational posts. at the same time, please use your own judgment when reading his posts and decide for yourself if you come to the same conclusions. if he is mafia he will use his "upstandingness" to sheep us around. ##vote: iGrok So how common is it for townies to vote for/ lynch day1 people that they just don't like or find annoying? I mean in the face no real evidence for or against anyone is it worth it to eliminate inactive or annoying players? Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 18:06 Pyo wrote:
After reading the posts up to now, I am reasonably confident that freeloader is probably a townie and the ambiguity of early accusers and their motivations means that there's not much to be learned from lynching him, although it might be inevitable at this point. Since his post in his defense haven't really been all that constructive anyway it isn't really a big loss, so I'm not gonna fight it.
The players that I find annoying are by far Haiku boy and Kurumi. So if ever I'm undecided about who to vote for it'll probably be one of them.
I think it is interesting to note all the little 1v1 bickering going on, the most recent example of which is between iGrok and gtrsrs. I think it is reasonable to assume that two mafia wouldn't orchestrate a mini feud this early on, which means that either both are town or only one is town.
So combining my last 2 paragraphs, I think I'm gonna have to change my vote to iGrok. Ironic isn't it?
You might be using the alanis morrissette definition of irony, but that isn't irony. I asked that question and no one really gave me a reason not to. I was actually planning to change my vote away from iGrok since it was an arbitrary accusation anyway. I started by randomly voting for kurumi and then for appruds before i ever got iGrok's case. But when i got on iGrok, he became really defensive. Then in light of his defense of lafali and GGQ's analysis I am even more confident that he's mafia.
I'm not going to advocate him over xkcd since i'm reasonably sure that he's mafia too and if either of the two get lynched I'm fine.
I will add that I find it curious that ever since the heat had turned on iGrok and several people started voting for him, his rather extensive and frequent posting/analysis has all but dried up. Almost as if he didn't want to further incriminate him or was waiting for other mafia to try to damage control the situation. If he were actually town, I feel like he should have continued to post as per usual because after he turned up green, everything would become even more valuable (especially as an "experienced" player). Does that confirm he's mafia? no, of course not. But add that to his other suspicious activity outlined by GGQ before he died:
"At this point in time I think iGrok is almost certainly the godfather of the mafia team (it could be jackal as well but his behavior doesn't fit the role as well, and seems more in line with the town play I've seen from him). iGrok defends lafali after Kurumi calls him out and votes for him, while before this accusation he posted that everyone who had voted so far ( which included lafali) should be under suspicion. Contradiction. iGrok has also been working to get into a town-leadership and thread-presence position all game, something the godfather always tries to do. iGrok also got way too defensive after being attacked and accused."
Go ahead vote for xkcd, but keep in mind that mafia are almost certainly more than happy to bus one of their own to save the GF.
In closing, I'll remind you all of GGQ's dying recommendation since he isn't around anymore to give it.
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Jesus christ!!! I applaud your effort, but it's really misplaced you really expect people to read through all that? I haven't gotten through all of it, but your analysis of jackal (the only part that wasn't properly spoilered) is bad.
You're taking whether or not he was even going to participate as a sign of his role? WTF? And people called me tunneling iGrok bad analysis...
You pick on jackal saying kurumi is insane as an indication of jackal trying to condemn or discredit him. That's wrong, go read kurumi's posting in XXXIX. He IS insane. I think even he'd admit it.
Jackal pointing out rookie would be extremely dangerous for the god father to do. I mean why take that risk when he could have one of the other mafia do it or even wait for a townie to make a false accusation.
Jackal says DT checks will return townie. That is not wrong. blues are townies too.
"Ok, how can Jackal knows that Kurumi is scum if Freeloader is scum? If freeloader is scum, then Kurumi isn’t necessary that of a scum. Jackal then adds the second sentence as a insurance policies to himself. If Freeloader flips townie, then Kurumi is townie and most of the bandwagoners is scummy. Why does Jackal not say that? He lied here, and we know Mafia has to lie to win this game."
- like for real? That is absurd.
Bottom line this huge ass post is just a distraction filled with garbage analysis... and I haven't read the spoilered parts yet.
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On June 09 2011 13:22 Treadmill wrote:
Something else: GGQ didn't post ANY suspicions of iGrok until literally 1 minute before the night post. So the notion that GGQ was killed to protect iGrok from his accusations is bogus.
[/b]
Wait, when did anyone say this?
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On June 09 2011 13:40 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2011 13:34 Pyo wrote:
Jesus christ!!! I applaud your effort, but it's really misplaced you really expect people to read through all that? I haven't gotten through all of it, but your analysis of jackal (the only part that wasn't properly spoilered) is bad.
You're taking whether or not he was even going to participate as a sign of his role? WTF? And people called me tunneling iGrok bad analysis...
You pick on jackal saying kurumi is insane as an indication of jackal trying to condemn or discredit him. That's wrong, go read kurumi's posting in XXXIX. He IS insane. I think even he'd admit it.
Jackal pointing out rookie would be extremely dangerous for the god father to do. I mean why take that risk when he could have one of the other mafia do it or even wait for a townie to make a false accusation.
Jackal says DT checks will return townie. That is not wrong. blues are townies too.
"Ok, how can Jackal knows that Kurumi is scum if Freeloader is scum? If freeloader is scum, then Kurumi isn’t necessary that of a scum. Jackal then adds the second sentence as a insurance policies to himself. If Freeloader flips townie, then Kurumi is townie and most of the bandwagoners is scummy. Why does Jackal not say that? He lied here, and we know Mafia has to lie to win this game."
- like for real? That is absurd.
Bottom line this huge ass post is just a distraction filled with garbage analysis... and I haven't read the spoilered parts yet. Oh yeah one thing, my analysis of you has lead me to determine that you are a scum. You just confirmed that By clearly trying to defend jackal here. Everyone is watching you, do not forget
You think I'm scum?!? I'm kind of excited now. I starting to think that there was no way I could make it less obvious that I was town to the point I was really worried I was going to get mafia killed by becoming a confirmed townie.
Also I have no idea whether jackal is scum or not. He could be but honestly that doesn't really matter right now. Even if he is scum considering his mistake about rookie, he has limited sway over town right now, so he's somewhat lower on the we-should-lynch-right-now list certainly below iGrok and yourself.
ROFL just read your analysis of me. I'm not gonna bother defending myself against it, but if someone wants to have fun they can go ahead and do it. In fact, I encourage everyone to read it - it's just that funny. The only thing I'll point out is that many of the quotes attributed to me were quotes within my posts - xkcd messed all the nesting up.
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On June 09 2011 17:21 supersoft wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2011 17:09 Xedat wrote:
My vote stays on amazingxkcd.
I read through 80% of it and what is strange to me is that he calls everyone that is under slight suspicion scum, additionally he says pyo and jackal are scum. But then, not a word on iGrok? Really? Why analyze the posting of most players but leave the most discussed about with nothing at all.
Also, Drazerk and Jimboo, I am not forgetting about you. Say something or the streets around you will be painted crimson. our vigi can shoot amazing. we have to get rid of the GF and amazing is not the gf.
I really don't like that people are advocating the use of the vigi powers. Whoever the vigi is should just judge for themselves whether they should use it and whom to use it on. Listening to someone else is inherently dangerous and subject to being manipulated.
Basically, Vigi's use it when you feel it is appropriate and everyone else, stop advocating their use.
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On June 09 2011 17:00 35spike1 wrote:
^Basically, more evidence of iGrok not killing GGQ to save himself.
No one is really using this as an argument for iGrok's guilt. Stop bringing it up and arguing against it. If you think he is guilty (as I do), it's a bad argument and not a needed argument, and hence isn't really being used. If you think he is innocent, bringing up non-existent and/or bad arguments to fight against is really suspicious and more importantly for you isn't going to convince anyone of his innocence.
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On June 10 2011 04:50 supersoft wrote:
haha, since i believe that both iGrok and amazinxdc are scum, it'll be super interesting to see who voted last ;-)
Hmm, so if the lynch target doesn't end up voting (and gets modkilled), does the next highest voting get lynched?
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On June 10 2011 13:02 teamsolid wrote:
Just as I thought... that part about Kurumi "not needing to defend himself" was clearly his way of trying to tell us he did a DT on him. Either lots of people don't use their brains when thinking about why a mafia would ever post that much analysis, or there's a couple of mafias in here.
wow, we kind of suck - two blue lynches... I totally thought he was mafia or I would have pushed harder for iGrok. I guess I'll have to go through huge ass post more seriously. Who do you think he DT checked? At this point I'll guess that he checked jackal and got mafia (although jackal was a likely framer target), so it's still kind of hard to judge.
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I'm still not sure why he didn't claim his role as DT given that he was leading the lynch vote. I mean he could have saved himself by just voting for iGrok. All in all, I'm just a little baffled by xkcd's play.
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On June 10 2011 13:19 teamsolid wrote:
No, you kind of suck, unless you're a mafia then good job.
wait, why do I suck. I've been pushing iGrok, not xkcd.
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On June 10 2011 13:30 teamsolid wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2011 13:19 Pyo wrote:
I'm still not sure why he didn't claim his role as DT given that he was leading the lynch vote. I mean he could have saved himself by just voting for iGrok. All in all, I'm just a little baffled by xkcd's play. Firstly, there are Mafia Roleblockers. Secondly, there's a good chance there are no more Medics. If he made it entirely clear that he's a DT, he'd be dead and/or useless. This is a game of subtleties and why people need to look at things from a neutral/analytical perspective, and not with preconceived notions.
Yeah, he'd be dead next night cycle, but he wouldn't be dead right now. I mean ignoring any analysis done, he would know that he was a DT (and a townie) and iGrok was maybe a townie, maybe a mafia. Considering his vote could have been the deciding factor, wouldn't it have been better for him to make to sacrificed another townie than to let himself die even if he didn't role claim?
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ruh, roh... this is kind of game changing...
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Well considering this is potentially game-breaking, do we call for a regame from day 1 with re-randomized roles?
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EPT
