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Pick Your Power Insane! - Page 60

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6789 Posts
May 20 2011 21:55 GMT
#1181
Nah Barundar not at all, no way do I want us to stop scum hunting. I fully expect GMarshal to die tonight but I think we should make use of the info he gave us and lynch at least once from the pool of 6. Right now I feel like our focus should be here and I don't think it wont kill us to spend a day discussing it (the only danger is if it became like the item game from insane 2 lolol)

Don't worry I have no intention of crutching on blues :D
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
May 20 2011 22:52 GMT
#1182
Well FW isn;t getting lynched today it seems, so to help the vote list checker I'm going to change to KillerSOS.
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
May 20 2011 23:11 GMT
#1183
Wiggles, will you be around to use your kill at least three hours before the lynch? That should give us enough time to switch based on the results. I would suggest lynching into the kav group.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
infinitestory
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4053 Posts
May 20 2011 23:39 GMT
#1184
On May 21 2011 00:28 Barundar wrote:
The problem with the incog bandwagon since day 1 has been noone really took responsability for it. It has been several weak votes votes that simply met little resistance. Yesterday i kept hoping for ace or foolishness to point out what exactly it was that deemed incog mafia, but they never did. Both of them also switched votes (or in foolishness' case tried) near the end indicating a nowhere near strong case. Today it has been more of the same, with suspicious people like chaoser simply requesting that we stuck to discussing the same targets as yesterday. When incog claims america he is met with an attitude of "you knew you where gonna be suspicious, so you picked the most obvious role no mafia would pick to fool us. Calling your bluff!", which is obviously a bs WIFOM argument.

The problem with this statement is that Incog's logic for rationalizing his America pick is even more WIFOM to begin with.

Also, I took responsibility for the case against Incog when I posted this:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973&currentpage=46#917
I do, however, agree that Incog’s reaction was very pro-town. I’m sticking to my analysis, though.

Bumatlarge, why did you pick Watcher? It’s so terribly vague that I can’t help but feel it’s useless. Feel free to prove me wrong.

On May 21 2011 03:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Hi ppl I love you.

Hi, but
On May 16 2011 14:22 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Amazing day post Ver

That’s so scummy, you even used the lurk smiley!!111

My reads on the Kavdragon list:
GMarshal – That M2DT claim is pretty sound. I’m not going to forget the weird Kavdragon vote switch, but in my mind, the rest of GMarshal’s actions have been relatively pro-town. I think he’s town.
Chezinu – So I asked him to help out Town by claiming. No response. I’m guessing he’s a mafia who’s given up on life.
Node – Haven’t seen a solid argument against him; the people who say Node is scummy seem to be using the same logic as against Foolishness, which I don’t buy. No read.
Caller – Has been posting with a pro-town attitude, even if not much. I think he’s been doing his best to lead the town in the right direction, especially by focusing us down on this list (Even if we RNGed it, 2/5 is WAY better than 6/23, and it helps to keep the town from getting distracted like on Day 1)

@Accusations on Chaoser:
I thought the Foolishness wagon was bad, but up until Bumatlarge’s post, I saw no valid reasons provided for accusations against Chaoser. Bum does have a very legitimate point with Chaoser’s defensive attitude, although to be fair Chaoser has been taking a flood of shitty accusations. I see so many people saying that “his general posting style” indicates scumminess and saying he doesn’t require an analysis. I want to see one, or I’m not buying this.

To avoid being a hypocrite, here goes nothing yet again:
KillerSOS
First thing I notice when I filter KillerSOS’s posts is that he has around 35 posts. Except, I’m pretty sure this post alone is bigger than all 35 of his put together. I'm sorry, but I am really going to have to draw conclusions on thin evidence (although the absence of evidence will turn out to be evidence, in this case). Jesus Christ, this guy REALLY doesn’t like posting anything long. Or valuable, as it turns out:
Around number picking time:
On May 14 2011 10:28 KillerSOS wrote:
Well I'm going with two mid range numbers.

Dare you to guess them.

This post actually didn’t raise any flags by itself. However, what did raise a flag for me is the fact that he picked [5][11] in the end. 5 is NOT a midrange number.
This tells me one of a few things: 1) he’s trying to deceive everyone, 2) he doesn’t really care about what the town knows, or 3) he couldn’t settle on numbers before posting. The first two are pretty scummy, so I’ll go with the third one for benefit of the doubt.

On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 16 2011 16:12 Ace wrote:
Both of them have [9][x] so the only thing to notice is that they both picked the same number or unique numbers. Since I'm right above both of them with [9][11] it would be in his best interest to ask Chezinu what numbers he picked. That way he'd know if that him and Kurumi picked the same number (if Chezinu picked [9][11] also) or just won't know if it's unique (if Chezinu picked [9][x] or [4][x]).

Either way it wouldn't matter because nothing about number picks could tell you about alignment yet. I don't think FW noticed anything and instead was just asking what the second number pick is like all of us have been.


I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members.

One odd aspect of this post is that he assumes the strategy he states is “smart.” He’s clearly put at least some thought into mafia number picking strategy. There are reasons for picking all low numbers and reasons for going all random, as well as a million other strategies. But this one is smart. The reason I’m reading into this so much is because there is almost nothing to fucking read into at all.

On May 17 2011 03:10 KillerSOS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 16 2011 17:50 Scamp wrote:
On May 16 2011 17:12 Node wrote:
On May 16 2011 16:17 Scamp wrote:
Also are you suggesting we should be looking at at least one person who picked a low first number?


This looked like a more general question. Yes, I realize there's a "you" there, but a) it's relevant to how we collectively proceed and b) I don't see what you have to gain by having a specific person answer it.


I think it's fairly obvious that I have suspicions of KillerSOS so I wanted him to explain himself, is all.



I think it's fairly obvious that you are just spitting out nonsense.

Would you like to explain yourself?

Kinda like an OMGUS, except without votes. Instead of explaining himself, KillerSOS redirects attention onto Scamp himself in a pretty antagonistic way. I really do NOT like the attitude of this post. KillerSOS has no reason at this point to be so virile at Scamp; there aren’t any strong accusations.

On May 18 2011 14:10 KillerSOS wrote:
Wow, that was a quick swap to Kav. Makes me a bit nervous.

On May 18 2011 14:13 KillerSOS wrote:
Well that was unexpected.

..Not

This is after the Day 1 Lynch. This pair of posts gives me bad vibes, as if he was watching the lynch closely and didn’t bother to post until 1 minute before the Day post. By the way, his last post before these two was 22 hours before.

On May 18 2011 14:32 KillerSOS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2011 14:27 Incognito wrote:
On May 18 2011 14:26 Ace wrote:
On May 18 2011 14:23 Incognito wrote:
Any of the single voter lists should be investigated. M2DT should investigate the Kavdragon lynch. I'll investigate the Barundar list once Mr. Inventory gives me a list check kit.


If there is anyone that shouldn't be getting an investigation kit, it's you. You are on the Kavdragon lynch list.

And you are on the Incognito list. Who do you suggest we actually give this kit to?



What's wrong with being on the Incognito list? I don't see how Kav flipping town proves you're a townie.

This is actually a legitimate post! I’m proud.

On May 19 2011 03:44 KillerSOS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2011 22:16 Caller wrote:
Alright, I'm up. Okay, I was wrong. My bad Kavdragon. Still, we get some interesting information out of this.

In large mafia games, I've found that mafia tend not to be involved in last minute bandwagons if it doesn't win them the game outright or something along those lines. Instead, they're content to plant their vote in some corner to avoid getting list checked or whatnot, and watch as town scrambles to and fro. They find it to be too risky to stick their necks out by doing some vote switcheroo at the last minute, and combined with some other thoughts-namely, GMarshal's willingness to take a vig hit tonight, flamewheel's already strong town vibes-leads me to think that looking at the last minute bandwagon on Kev, I'm pretty sure its a red herring. Role checks should still probably go out for everyone on that list that's also on the top 6 roles (flamewheel, me, etc.) but i think trying to look deeply into the day 1 bandwagon itself is a waste of time and roles.

On the other hand, the people who DO tend to be mafia in those situations are the ones that cry "omg the bandwagon someone stop it." and then proceed to do nothing about it.

like this person
On May 18 2011 13:18 infinitestory wrote:
ok wtf is this

Incognito leads in lynch votes with less than 3 hours left in Day 1.

Ace unvotes Incognito, switching to Radfield.

Suddenly, 3 more votes on Kavdragon.

I feel like this is suspicious, but it also reeks of WIFOM.


or this person
On May 18 2011 14:05 chaoser wrote:
woah woah wtf @ switch from incognito to Kavdragon.


or this person
On May 18 2011 14:10 KillerSOS wrote:
Wow, that was a quick swap to Kav. Makes me a bit nervous.


Now obviously this isn't a scumtell by itself. So let's look at some other pieces of information. Like, the aftermath. People who are mafia tend to comment on how good their foresight was-when in fact, the only reason they had the foresight is because they know damn well who is mafia and who isn't. Someone like...

On May 18 2011 14:13 KillerSOS wrote:
Well that was unexpected.

..Not


I was wrong about Kev, but it appears that his sacrifice was not in vain.

##FOS KillerSOS


Yeah man, knowing the lynch on Kev was wrong automatically makes me suspicious.

Or it could just make me intelligent, who knows?

Once again, a passive-aggressive response to town pressure. A response without a response. KillerSOS is trying to shuffle off accusations without saying anything for himself at all.

On May 19 2011 14:36 KillerSOS wrote:
Why would you share that you are king? That's a dangerous thing to tell us.

This is very true. KillerSOS is the first to bring up that revealing kingship is dangerous (namely because of the possibility of a day roleblock and journalist). He’s clearly thought about the consequences of the Kingmaker, although that doesn’t necessarily mean from a mafia standpoint. But even so, he does enough thinking to come to this conclusion, and gives a barebones statement like this? I don’t like KillerSOS’s policy of hiding as much from town as possible.

On May 19 2011 23:07 KillerSOS wrote:
Is it not a safe bet to ride the "Lynch the Incog" train? He was already a high profile target Day 1 and really hasn't done anything to improve his image.

If we take what GM says at face value we are getting great odds at a mafia lynch. The only issue is that even if the lynch flips blue that doesn't prove anyone else red at this point. There are no real connections between any of those players.

His last post in thread. That’s THIRTY-THREE AND A HALF hours ago. On top of that, as I said before, the attitude of taking the safe route and trying to ride bandwagons is absurdly scummy.

Conclusion: This guy has SO many posts that literally add nothing. A bunch of them aren’t even relevant to gameplay, and some play Captain Obvious. When pressured, KillerSOS either goes straight into full-on aggressive defense, or turtles for thirty hours. Neither is a pro-town response whatsoever. I don’t think he can provide an inactivity excuse, since his votes have been rather timely. KillerSOS is actively trying to minimize himself as much as possible, to a ludicrous degree. I don’t even think a scared townie would go this far.

I was going to put all his useless posts into a spoiler dump pile, but I decided it wasn't worth the effort.
Translator:3
infinitestory
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4053 Posts
May 20 2011 23:41 GMT
#1185
EBWOP: By the way, KillerSOS, I made sure to spell and stylize your name right. It seems you care about that.
Translator:3
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 20 2011 23:49 GMT
#1186
On May 21 2011 08:11 kitaman27 wrote:
Wiggles, will you be around to use your kill at least three hours before the lynch? That should give us enough time to switch based on the results. I would suggest lynching into the kav group.


It's Incognito and KillerSOS imo. One from the Kav group, the other from the "chaffe" group. Either way they are the top 2 vote getters.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
May 20 2011 23:54 GMT
#1187
On May 21 2011 08:11 kitaman27 wrote:
Wiggles, will you be around to use your kill at least three hours before the lynch? That should give us enough time to switch based on the results. I would suggest lynching into the kav group.


I'll be around.

So, right now there's 3 kinds of opinions about what to do with the kill.

1. Shoot Incognito, see what he flips, act accordingly
2. Shoot Node, see what he flips, act accordingly
3. Shoot KillerSOS, complete lynch as normal
you gotta dance
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-21 00:29:23
May 21 2011 00:06 GMT
#1188
caller
radfield
kitaman27
incognito
mr wiggles
eiii

All of you need to vote within the next 4 hours.





Incognito: 8
infinitestory
killersos
ace
tnkted
foolishness
chezinu
OriginalName
bumatlarge

killersos: 5
fishball
flamewheel
meapak
kurumi
deconduo

node: 2
gmarshal
barundar

foolishness: 2
node
chaoser
Liquipedia
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
May 21 2011 00:08 GMT
#1189
On May 21 2011 08:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 21 2011 08:11 kitaman27 wrote:
Wiggles, will you be around to use your kill at least three hours before the lynch? That should give us enough time to switch based on the results. I would suggest lynching into the kav group.


I'll be around.

So, right now there's 3 kinds of opinions about what to do with the kill.

1. Shoot Incognito, see what he flips, act accordingly
2. Shoot Node, see what he flips, act accordingly
3. Shoot KillerSOS, complete lynch as normal


I would shoot sooner rather than later. If we get some information there needs to be time to change the lynch if it is necessary.
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
May 21 2011 00:10 GMT
#1190
I voted ver! Also, Wiggles if you're going to shoot me, tell me ahead of time since I have info to dump then
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
May 21 2011 00:18 GMT
#1191
Reading that analysis of KillerSOS makes me think he just terrible, and not scum at all. However, I've certainly played with players on my scum-team who posted like that.

I think we should shoot Killer, and vote normally. We get very little info from a KillerSOS vote, regardless of flip. We get all sorts of info from a Incog/Node vote no matter what.
infinitestory
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4053 Posts
May 21 2011 00:23 GMT
#1192
On May 21 2011 09:18 Radfield wrote:
Reading that analysis of KillerSOS makes me think he just terrible, and not scum at all. However, I've certainly played with players on my scum-team who posted like that.

I think we should shoot Killer, and vote normally. We get very little info from a KillerSOS vote, regardless of flip. We get all sorts of info from a Incog/Node vote no matter what.

I can certainly see why you'd say that. One of the biggest reasons I think he's scum is his response to pressure: he either fires back briefly at the accuser, or he just vanishes. The former may be terrible town play, but I can't see a townie simply disappearing as calls for his lynch rise.
Translator:3
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
May 21 2011 00:24 GMT
#1193
On May 21 2011 09:18 Radfield wrote:
Reading that analysis of KillerSOS makes me think he just terrible, and not scum at all. However, I've certainly played with players on my scum-team who posted like that.

I think we should shoot Killer, and vote normally. We get very little info from a KillerSOS vote, regardless of flip. We get all sorts of info from a Incog/Node vote no matter what.


You are contradicting yourself. If you believe the Incog/Node flip would give more information than a Killer flip, why shoot Killer first? Wouldn't it be better the other way around?
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
May 21 2011 00:24 GMT
#1194
Chaoser is on both Incog and Node.


infinitestory
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4053 Posts
May 21 2011 00:24 GMT
#1195
On May 21 2011 09:24 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 21 2011 09:18 Radfield wrote:
Reading that analysis of KillerSOS makes me think he just terrible, and not scum at all. However, I've certainly played with players on my scum-team who posted like that.

I think we should shoot Killer, and vote normally. We get very little info from a KillerSOS vote, regardless of flip. We get all sorts of info from a Incog/Node vote no matter what.


You are contradicting yourself. If you believe the Incog/Node flip would give more information than a Killer flip, why shoot Killer first? Wouldn't it be better the other way around?

I think he means the vote lists from an Incog/Node lynch would be more telling than vote lists from a KillerSOS lynch.
Translator:3
KillerSOS
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States4207 Posts
May 21 2011 00:29 GMT
#1196
Sorry guys, I've not had internet for the past two days. I just finished moving into my new house. Actually posting this from my phone as I still don't have internet and can't really read anything.... Working on putting my desk together.
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6789 Posts
May 21 2011 00:31 GMT
#1197
Incog isnt the best lynch methinks. My alter ego was supper convinced he is town and while I'm not her I feel it would be better to kill someone else out of the kavwagon. While Incog has acted pretty insane I'm not ready to pull the trigger yet because I think node is a better option. Seriously, I know I've said this before but I'll say it again. Kill node now with king vote. If he flips green (doubt it) then we lynch Incog. If he flips red than we just prevented ourselves from killing a strong a vocal townie and allows us to use our lynch on someone else. This is the fastest and most efficient way to resolve this IMO.
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
KillerSOS
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States4207 Posts
May 21 2011 00:33 GMT
#1198
Managed to get through the last 2 pages on my horrible phone internet... If you want to lynch me it's a waste, but feel free.

I'm PYP Tracker
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6789 Posts
May 21 2011 00:34 GMT
#1199
On May 21 2011 09:33 KillerSOS wrote:
Managed to get through the last 2 pages on my horrible phone internet... If you want to lynch me it's a waste, but feel free.

I'm PYP Tracker

Results of your action last night?
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
May 21 2011 00:35 GMT
#1200
On May 21 2011 09:24 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 21 2011 09:18 Radfield wrote:
Reading that analysis of KillerSOS makes me think he just terrible, and not scum at all. However, I've certainly played with players on my scum-team who posted like that.

I think we should shoot Killer, and vote normally. We get very little info from a KillerSOS vote, regardless of flip. We get all sorts of info from a Incog/Node vote no matter what.


You are contradicting yourself. If you believe the Incog/Node flip would give more information than a Killer flip, why shoot Killer first? Wouldn't it be better the other way around?



The info I was referring to is where people place their votes and why, etc. No one even needs to post a reason to vote KillerSOS, so even if he flips red, we get nothing from the vote.

Given the fact that this thread is ultra-quiet, i'm getting the feeling we may be heading towards several dead townies.

I'd much prefer to lynch Node over Incog, but Incog dying will really clear the air and allow things to move forward as town, which is what we need to happen. There are certain things that will be easier for me to see once Incog flips.

That being said, I think Node is the better lynch.

##Vote Node

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