EPTjust read my PM that I am replacing Conversion. This is my first time playing a forum mafia game.
I will catch up reading first. I guess I should post an analysis on someone to contribute?
TL Mafia XXXIX
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Germany358 Posts
just read my PM that I am replacing Conversion. This is my first time playing a forum mafia game. I will catch up reading first. I guess I should post an analysis on someone to contribute? | ||
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I think we should consider Impervious as mafia strongly. | ||
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I didn't remember why orgolove was suspected that much and checked his posts, because he was not on "kenpachi's last list": + Show Spoiler + On May 16 2011 03:29 Kenpachi wrote: That Summary is a bit butchered because Medics most likely exist. Lets study the Mafia List GGQ - Roleblocker Amber[Light] - Goon sinani206 - Goon Irish_Punk13 - Goon Now then, through my inexistent humble insight, i believe the other two mafia are well experienced players. Why? well, 1 of them is the Godfather which is GOING to be top tier in the mafia. The Goon that is left is most likely experienced because of the Mafia META. You would never put more newbies that experienced players in the mafia due to heavy imbalance. Our prime suspects are.. redtooth ilovejonn impervious airbladeorange hey theyre all experienced. Either redtooth or ilovejonn is going to be the godfather because i believe they are the 2 most experienced of the 4 What I found on orgolove is that he is he is very focused on ilovejohn, calling for lynching him every day: + Show Spoiler + On May 16 2011 14:10 orgolove wrote: So. ilovejonn. Lets go. + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2011 15:49 orgolove wrote: I dodn't quote his whole post, its the one with his "tabelatutory" analysis + Show Spoiler + To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds. I strongly push for ilovejonn's lynch. + Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On May 15 2011 12:55 orgolove wrote: [QUOTE]On May 15 2011 12:50 ilovejonn wrote: bet he's still gonna stick to his data sheet and go with whoever has the highest points after tonight. because vote analysis is the best and only analysis am I right orgolove? Nah, I'm still sticking my vote on you, scum.[/QUOTE] For me it is very clear that either ilovejon or orgolove is mafia, ilovejon is attacking orgolove for only contributing with his excel stuff (I don't find it very helpful, to little sample size), and orgolove is tunneling (I hope i used that correctly) ilovejon, because he is so high on his list. If we lynch orgolove or ilovejon we know the alignment of the other player. On Impervious and redtooth: redtooth has not contributed at all, I find that very suspicious, maybe we should force him into contributing? Impervious as I said is on my scumlist, but if he contributes a bit more today he can live. Summary: I think we should lynch orgolove or ilovejon today, as it gives us information of the other player and they are prime suspects. P.S.: I will eat something now and maybe if I am bored after I will analyze ilovejon a bit. I would really like to see an analysis of ilovejon that is not in form of an excelsheet. I know that I did not touch orgoloves voting at all, I am not very experienced in analyzing that so maybe someone else can look into it? | ||
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On orgolove, I do not remember who wrote it, but someone said that orgolove does not act scummy but more like a butthurt townie who has worked a lot on his (tabulatory) analysis and after no one accepts it as sound reasoning for a lynch is a bit inactive. I also think that what orgolove wrote is not that scummy and he was not on kenpachi's list what gives him town credit for me. I would really like an analysis by orgolove about ilovejon. | ||
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On May 16 2011 17:53 elmizzt wrote: What would be AO's agenda in killing off Kenpachi based on that? Revenge? I think you're reading too much into that. It was simply an easy kill to give no info, a delaying tactic by the last red because he feels no pressure from town. I also think that AO would be stupid if he was mafia and killed kenpachi because of that, AO was not on most peoples list anymore, if killing kenpachi does something it is making us focus on AO more. | ||
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Again, please orgolove, if you are pro town write an analysis of ilovejon. | ||
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I also find his inactivity very suspicious and he is on my list. I just think that lynching him would not give us as much information, he has to post at least once not to be modkilled, if he does post something and it looks scummy I might switch my vote to him. Redtooth's inactivity is almost incriminating him too much. He contributed a fair amount and then suddenly he is dead quiet, I think it might have to do with real life stuff he does. Look at his post history, his last post here was may 17th, his last post on TL may 18th. This is not to say that he is not scummy, I just think that lynching him might not give us any information and he would be modkilled regardless. | ||
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I made a little list of "inactive" people: Not voted until now: Jaminz,elmizzt,Mig,kitaman27,redtooth zero posts: redtooth one post: Jaminz (one post night) low post count: Airbladeorange, elmizzt,kitaman27 (each 3 posts) only posted during night: ilovejonn (1 post day, 4 night) | ||
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why wasn't I online the last minutes. I really think analyzing who switched when could help us finding scum this time... With Imp defending orgolove I would actually back away from lynching him, but I am not too convinced on ilovejonn either. I have a gut feeling that neither orgolove nor ilovejonn are scum, but I have no Idea who could be then... | ||
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I think everyone who is still in the game has been accused of being scummy at least once. ilovejonn and orgolove keep acusing each other, Jaminz has some strange voting (IIRC) and has been accused and Airblade orange has also been accused of being scummy a few times and that are just the ones I remember and I just skimmed a lot of pages in the past. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 10:26 jaminz wrote: I've been pretty MIA thus far, as you all have undoubtedly seen. I've been reading the thread, but just barely. I'm going to vote for Impervious after looking over his post history and reading the analysis from Kita and others. I'm not voting for ilovejonn because the only two people who are currently voting for him are people I don't really trust (orgolove and Impervious). I'm not voting for orgolove (yet) because I think that while his posting has been very erratic, I don't really think it's possible that scum would be that wild/weird this late in the game (and with only two of them left). I'm not voting for redtooth (yet) because while his analysis was completely wrong in the early game, I don't think he's done enough to raise my suspicion about him to the point where I'd vote for him over Impervious. If I had to rank my top suspects it'd probably look something like this: 1. Impervious 2. ilovejonn 3. redtooth 4. orgolove . . . (5). Kitaman and some others I just have weird gut feelings about He tells us why ne finds ilovejonn and orgolove are not that suspicious, like people before have done. Then he says redtooth is not as suspicious as impervious and thats why he votes for Impervious. He actually never tells us why he finds Impervious is suspicious. If he was mafia and knew that redtooth is a townie that would be modkilled, that explains why he wanted another townie to get lynched. Also this post is the only one where he wrote anything that could be called a contribution, except for posting the remaining players at the beginning of night 5, which can be seen at page one of the thread. That is why I will vote for him for now, maybe I can pressure him into being more active in spirit of VarpuliS. | ||
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I wanted to lynch him over redtooth yesterday because redtooth would be modkilled and I wanted to pressure orgolove into contributing differently. It is to note that Impervious defended orgolove with his last breath and that sandroba didn't get a scumread on him. For this day, even if you are uncertain about orgolove I urge you not to vote for him. It is the same than with Impervious yesterday, orgolove and Impervious contribute and post at least. I think scummy players that are inactive like jaminz are worst than players like orgolove that contribute but you don't trust them as much. | ||
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I want to ask the players that are suspected if they could post a list of the people they find scummiest, so that when they flip green we have more names to work with. This is especially for orgolove, who besides ilovejonn is scummy? | ||
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If Mig is correct with his analysis orgolove is a shitty town. The rest of the players might not post much but at least if they post they post something noteworthy we can actually work with. Again, I dont think orgolove is scum, Impervious pretty much martyred himself to get the town away from orgolove plus sandroba did not have him on his list of suspects. Orgolove will be a asted lynch. Vote for jaminz or if you ant to follo Dropbear vote for AirbladeOrange, but rite hy and at least do something. | ||
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I just looked at the votes, the only one ho voted for Impervious and Jaminz is Mig, but I don't think that this is too scummy as 3/4 of all people with many votes (Imp,Jaminz,redtooth) have flipped green, the only one who also had many votes was orgolove and I am quite certain that he is not red. Dropbear has been on AirbladeOrange for a while, if he could link to an analysis of AirbladeOrange I could be inclined to vote for him today. I have the feeling that one mafia hides beteen the more inactive players and one between the active players, but you can't be too certain on that. | ||
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I jsut rote a long post hy I think orgolove should be voted on but my parent internet died on me and everything is lost -.- In a few words, if e don't kill orgolove after todays revealing it ould be stupid, my vote is on orgolove. Second of all, I don't think kita is scummy only because he is alive, as mafia kills the people that are most trustorthy and not the ones that are most veteran. All lynches after todays greatly depend on weather or not orgolove is mafia. | ||
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Dropbear has not voted yet. I am pretty sure that chaos13, Mig and kitaman27 are town. Dropbear contributes, but like Mig? I also alays had a bit of a strange feeling about him, but I must analyse him properly before I can say anything. AirbladeOrange and elmizzt always were too inactive, I have the same feeling about them I had about Impervious and jaminz, that is why I am a bit more careful about allegations now. Of the to I tihnk AO is a bit more suspicious, but I also have to look more into that. ilovejonn is town if orgolove is scum. I am pretty sure that orgolove is scum. I think chaos13 and kitaman27 have the highest danger of being hit this night, so it would be helpful for town if they postet a list of their suspects before next day begins. | ||
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What I always found a bit problematic was that you just accused orgolove and didn't say anything about the other players. You could contribute a lot more by just posting a list like chaos13 did. @ Dropbear: How could forumite attack orgolove anymore without revealing himself? Also voting for orgolove is not based entirely on forumite's accusations, he was a vote target for the last two days and we lost those 2 days because we lynched scummy looking inactive guys. Between Impervious, elmizzt, AirbladeOrange and jaminz there probably is one mafia. For me they were pretty much equally scummy and we got the wrong guys. We could lynch AirbladeOrange and elmizzt today and tomorrow, but if none of them is mafia we have lost and as there are other targets that are more scummy lynching one of them would be stupid. If orgolove is scum we can lynch AirbladeOrange and then see if we won or if we need to look somewhere else for the last 2 lynches. If orgolove is town I think ilovejonn would be a better target, as it is our last shot and ilovejonn has a shitty voting record (there is a reason he is high on orgoloves list.) @chaoser13/about AO As I said earlier I think AIrbladeOrange hides between the inactive players / is an inactive player. The suspicious thing about him is definitely that he jsut does not react to any accusations at all. All other players (Impervious, Jaminz) became more active after accusimg them or voting for them. Maybe mafia tries to sit this game out. Tl;DR Orgolove today, if he is scum AO after that, if AO is not scum we have to look at kita,dropbear and elmizzt. If orgolove is town, get ilovejonn. If ilovejonn is mafia we still have to look at the people I mentioned earlier. | ||
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On the day 5 he is the third to vote orgolove after 2 people voted for ilovejonn and 2 who voted for orgolove. If orgolove and AO are both town this would be termendously stupid. I don't know what to think of that. The days after Dropbear and AirbladeOrange just vote for each other, I somehow missed that. What do think about this vote? Is this relevant? | ||
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my vote is between ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange, but I will have to look at each of them again, AO is completely unhelpful and you can't read a single helpful post from him.... Ilovejonn in the other hand has a bad voting record and you can't really read him because all he did was accusing orgolove for the last x days. | ||
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I think this game is pretty much dead as everyone that has been posting has been killed by now. I will vote for AO today and Ilovejonn tomorrow if nothing drastic happens. | ||
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This Forum is so dead that even if you just say unimportant stuff you won't hinder town, as there is nothing else to read. Also I am really interested in AirbladeOrange's answers. @ilovejonn: Who are your suspects? Why didn't you do anything except for defending against orgolove? | ||
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If you think this is the case then make an analysis of either of them and try to convince us. Other than that, I don't really see you, AirbladeOrange, survive this day. | ||
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The person that will die tonight is probably kitaman27, Dropbear or me. Of all people still in the game I think Mig is the least scummy, then Dropbear and Kita, ilovejonn and elmizzt are scummy to me. It looks like tonights kill will not really bring new information (If I die kita and Dropbear are a little bit more suspicious imho). | ||
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 The lurkers lounge is pretty lavish. P.S: get'em boys | ||
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