EPTTL Mafia XXXIX
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Impervious
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Redtooth could have easily bussed it, so he's not totally off the hook. I realize that he's putting a really, really good effort as a townie, but I'm still not completely sold. Especially since his plan actually created a bit of a divide in the town (which was a pretty predictable result), and that is definitely an anti-town play. It could be that he's town and it was unintentional though, which is why I think he needs to be watched. I also disliked some posts by kitaman27 earlier in the thread (yes, I have read the majority of the thread). He's also someone else who should be watched imo. Other than that, it looks like we're off to a solid start! | ||
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Two other people that chaoser didn't include was kitaman27 and redtooth. I'm less sure about redtooth, but I did explain my reasoning for having him under suspicion in my 2nd post in the thread. As for kitaman27, I had a suspicious reading of him before Amber[light] flipped. I would expect that at least 1 of the mafia would actually have been voting for Amber[light] from the start, and stuck with it. Probably the RB or the GF. Why? Because it's so freaking hard to determine they are actually scum if that happens, and it's a great backup plan to try to ensure that your team wins. Generally, actions speak louder than words..... So I also think we shouldn't be expecting to find EVERY mafia within that list. Probably 2 or 3 of them though. And from chaoser's analysis, I do believe that GGQ and sinani are the most likely, so either hit tonight or lynched tomorrow wouldn't be a bad move (unless some new info comes along). If new info comes along, I wouldn't be expecting it from chaoser. The mafia have 2kp and probably a roleblocker (it's possible GGQ is scum and lying and there is no roleblocker), so if he isn't dead tonight, he'll be roleblocked to infinity and beyond..... I don't think any decent scum would let him get another check off, especially if one of his potential targets are scum. In other news, I'm also pretty certain that sandroba is town (at least he'd better be after what happened in Sleeper Cell -_-), and I'm also pretty certain that Cthsazsa is also town. It really does seem like the mafia were trying pretty hard to lynch him, which would save Amber[light]. I'm also pretty sure chaoser is legitimately a DT (that goes without saying). As for everyone else, I'm not too sure at the moment. Nobody is really standing out too strongly. | ||
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However, it would not guarantee that there was a fake claim. chaoser can be a legit DT and it's still possible that we targetted 2 scum at the same time. | ||
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I'm in agreement that a statistical approach is useful, but with only 2 days of info, we don't have much to go with, and it's going to be very easy to make mistakes..... We should not rely solely on it, although, using it to get a good read on potential scum isn't a bad use at the moment. | ||
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Why? Because the mafia want to get rid of blues. Duh? You've basically eliminated one person who could be blue out of their pool of players to go after. @ sandroba - I think we need to focus on two strong scum candidates and see where that leads us. Right now, DropBear and EternalMisfit are two strong ones. We should probably focus on them right now. DropBear has been of no particular use to the town, and has been hindering us in some ways. Even if he's not mafia, it wouldn't be too big of a hit to the town right now. EternalMisfit is definitely scummy. That post he made at night about having the vigi shoot him was really, really fucking dumb, from a townie perspective. It's almost like he wanted to take attention away from both of them (and since GGQ flipped, well, you can fill in the rest). As for people that I'm suspicious of - I'm suspicious of kitaman27. I may be completely off the mark, but he's made a couple of posts that seem a little unusual. Others were two people that chaoser found suspicious, and I agree with him - sinani and ilovejohn. We need to let the DTs do their work now. It's completely possible that they've found a member of the mafia, but don't want to reveal it yet, because they could be gathering more information in the meantime. We're not even close to a lylo, so we're definitely in good shape. One thing I'm worried about are the millers that are potentially in the game. I'm really hoping that they bring enough attention to themselves that the mafia will hit them before a DT checks them. A couple of bad lynches + lynching millers due to DT checks could drastically change this game in a hurry. | ||
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On May 10 2011 23:15 sandroba wrote: @impervious can you please do an analysis on kita then? Analysis of kitaman27 Verdict: Suspicious. Reason: On May 06 2011 04:30 kitaman27 wrote: Irish_Punk13 This guy has been completely absent from the discussion after initially responding aggressively to pressure. His play so far has differed from his UG game as mafia, but that doesn't mean he hasn't changed up his playstyle in a more hostile environment. By ignoring the situation, he is digging his own grave. Amber[light] None of his posts have really stood out, but its been more the lack of posts that have been suspicious. I watched him in Insane 2 as scum and he was really lurky. Right now, he reminds me of Darth from last game, where everyone ignored him until late game, even though he was a vet that should be posting. His list for scum includes 2 confirmed scum, a confirmed town, and redtooth. The scum on his list were heavily lurking, and were also identified by other people before this point, so he didn’t really bring much info here. Especially since one was mod killed due to inactivity. I’m really not sure what to make of it. On May 07 2011 04:47 kitaman27 wrote: If we agree to play along, within reason, will you guys stop spamming up the thread? A 4 page discussion about things like whether or not we should allow 4 quotes or 5 quotes in a post or whether or not the plan makes the game fun is just plain silly. Good analysis should be valued, bad analysis should be ignored. Seems pretty simple to me. I find this highly ironic, since the vast majority of his posts have been spammy, and he’s asking others to stop spamming. Ok, that wasn’t actually scummy, just thought I’d point out something that you might get a chuckle out of. When it came time to actually lynch on Day 2, he was very resistant to switching to Amber. At least, until chaoser claimed DT. Then he switched immediately. Could easily be a bus. However, this post really stood out to me when I first read it: On May 09 2011 11:21 kitaman27 wrote: No, you explain now. I'm not trusting you if you think you're going to hide something from us. After switching his vote almost immediately, he suddenly put up some resistance? That seems really, really weird for someone who’s played more than a few games of mafia. Anyone with a power role needs to take advantage of their role as much as possible, and if you’re town, hindering that plan is a bad move. And it’s quite clear that chaoser had a plan from that post. The vast majority of his posts are spammy/no content. I know I play a lot like that as well, so I know that is not suspicious of itself. He’s an anti-lurking oriented player. And I can totally understand that as well. Getting the lurkers to participate more can also help the mafia as well though, because it doesn’t allow blues to blend in by lurking as well. This is particularly useful for roles like medics. The truth is, I’m not suspicious of him because I think he’s scum, I’m suspicious of him because I can’t peg him as town. He’s someone I want to watch, but not even consider lynching at the moment. He’s been asking questions which seem to be pro-town, but I’m still not sure. Now, another thing I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention: Did anyone else notice something weird about the night kills on the first night? I didn’t really notice it until doing this analysis….. Aidnai, KillerSOS, and Jackal58 were the targets. Aidnai was a strong supporter of redtooth’s initiative. He also made a post earlier on in the night which signified that he had a blue role without actually spelling it out. Seems like a logical hit. But why were KillerSOS and Jackal58 killed? Jackal is famed for his tunnelling, which could easily be manipulated or at least attempt to manipulate it before killing him (if I was mafia, I know that I’d want to keep him alive as a townie, unless he had a blue role). And since KillerSOS seemed to be a suspicious player, as a member of the mafia, I can’t see it being a stretch to actually push for his lynch at a later date….. And I did not get a vibe from him that he was blue. I’m not sure about it, but I’m thinking that maybe the mafia is more inexperienced than I initially expected them to be. I can’t think of a solid reason for “why them?” | ||
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On May 11 2011 01:51 kitaman27 wrote: I'm not really sure how this post is scummy. I also believe I was one of the first people to bring up Amber and pressure him to post on day one. When you take into consideration that you initially voted against one of the two people you were suspicious of when Day 2 came around, it's no longer looks as clear as "I made a good list, give me a pat on the back now!"..... Ok, so I misinterpreted your mixup during the switch. Still seems kind weird though. I would not push a lynch on you, in fact, I would argue against it. We already have 2+ good suspects, and adding another right now (like you did recently) is not going to help the town much, because it will be much easier to be misdirected when there are more suspects thrown in our faces. And, if we get a good lynch today, we'll really handicap the mafia. | ||
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On May 12 2011 05:29 Varpulis wrote: shit, 7 on EM? There's scum in that bandwagon, I'm sure of it. At least 1, maybe 2 if he's town. Redtooth, where art thou? I'm in agreement that it is a possibility. However, like you said, we'd learn more about ilj from this lynch. And we can get sinani later as well. We're far from a lylo. Although, I would like to make this one count - taking the mafia down to 1kp would be really, really nice right now. | ||
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On May 12 2011 07:18 Varpulis wrote: Oh, I didn't know that that was his reason. That's a bad reason too. If they're all giving bad reasons for their votes, it sort of cancels out, doesn't it? I'll drop this line of accusation for now, but I urge everybody to give a good, thought out reason for your votes. Both are scummy imo. Doesn`t mean they are scum, but they seem scummy. With the lynch of EM, we learn about ilj, and he seems to be more detrimental to the town than sinani. So he seems like the better lynch of the two right now, even though I`d like to see both gone tbh. Good enough of a reason? | ||
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On May 12 2011 08:37 sandroba wrote: EM, I changed my mind about you and if you are scum, you sure are doing a great job of looking inocent. I'm chaging my vote to sinani because he is more useless and after see your current post I'm convinced you can be a good asset if you are town. I just hope I'm right this time. Ok, what the hell? Within a few hours of his lynch, he starts to look useful to the town, and you decide to get cold feet all of a sudden? Do you not remember the shit he was pulling earlier? He actually asked a vigi to hit HIM, in what seems like a fairly obvious ploy to take pressure off of both him and GGQ (and GGQ was red if you recall). Among other things. He's been detrimental, until the last few hours, now he's trying to save his skin..... | ||
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Yes, it does look like calling a hit on yourself is a "frustrated townie" type move. At the same time, it was drawing attention away from GGQ, who was red..... And no vigi is going to hit anyone because they want to be hit..... It looks like it would be a gigantic waste of their ability..... I'm not sure about either of them. What I do know is that both seem scummy in some ways. And we learn more through a lynch of EM, because we can potentially erase ilj from our suspicious list. Because we accomplish more through a lynch of EM than through a lynch of sinani (I mean, from our limited knowledge), I can't see why you would want to switch right now..... If someone has better knowledge, and wants to share it right now, it'd help us greatly right now..... I'd be up for a switch, but not simply because EM has changed his posting ability in the last few hours. | ||
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And one gives us more info than the other. So it seems pretty obvious to me. | ||
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I'm turning 23 soon..... | ||
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On May 12 2011 13:30 orgolove wrote: Uh, I have lives like anyone else. I think I spent enough time on Day 2 of this game given it took like 6 hours to take the data, think of reasonable factors, apply the patterns, write up a convincing summary. And yet you guys would rather listen to ineffective and at best circumstantial evidence without looking at hard data. I can't change your behaviors. But you guys also can't force me to put in all that effort again, when I know it'll go to waste. Mafia is about more than just statistical analysis, especially when you're taking such a small sample of data into consideration. And, yes, 2 days is a small sample. We now have a 3rd day of data. As such, any analysis you do on this data has the potential to be even better. And now that you've already done the majority of the work setting it up (yes, I did read it all), it should be much, much quicker to add the new data to it. chaoser left us a list of likely scum. He proved to be pretty damn good at identifying scum in this game, so his opinion holds a lot of weight. chaoser's list of sinani, ilovejohn, GGQ, and EternalMisfit so far contained 1 mafia, and he pegged one himself already. There's 2 we haven't checked. I suspect we'll find one more mafia between those two remaining people. Technically, my only vote in this game has been against a town player, so I also fall under that suspicious category. I'm sure I've raised higher on your list of players that are suspicious (I remember I had something like ~10 pts already, right?). The type of statistics you took look at the actions of people. It will not be exact, but it is a useful tool to pick out potential scum. It is also pretty easy to fake, given the right circumstances. I know that I've seen it done before. It's especially dangerous for a GF to act really, really pro-town, and even lynch his own mafia members to give them a better shot at winning down the line. At the same time, substance is also a useful tool to identify scum. And, so far, we've been looking at the substance of what people have been posting to determine how pro-town or pro-scum they are. It is incredibly useful early in the game to hit scum, because there's not enough information for a statistical approach yet. I know you're probably pissed that we didn't follow your list of players. That shit happens. And it sucks. But your approach will be very, very useful to us by the time day 5 or 6 hits. If you don't want to keep updating the spreadsheet, I can understand that. At least make it available for other townies to work on. | ||
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I mentioned it earlier, but nobody really caught on (except sandroba), and I think it may be relevant for catching at least one of the scum. The question was: Why KillerSOS and Jackal on night 1? They seem like weird targets imo. Does anyone with more experience also find it weird? Because, if so, analyzing those night kills may provide us with some useful info. It's just a thought. | ||
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Also, I didn't notice the DL link in the original post..... My bad. | ||
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Although, I'm not sure if we even have a 2nd DT anymore. I've been assuming it, but we may need to actually play with the assumption that there is no 2nd DT..... | ||
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On May 13 2011 06:14 Varpulis wrote: @ Impervious Killer slipped blue here and Jaminz noticed it here. Fuck. I missed that. Nvm about KillerSOS then. But, why Jackal? | ||
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They probably wouldn't have mentioned Jackal's death as the reason for it, since they could rely on a dumbass townie to do that for them. | ||
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Though, to be honest, I only expect one mafia between ilj and sinani at this point. | ||
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On May 13 2011 11:59 GMarshal wrote: [/b]Mafia Deamon of Tzeench is dead If you're going to reference the Changer Of Ways in your post, spell his name right. | ||
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I could be missing something, and there's more to it, but I think that's pretty much it. I'm still confused about Jackal's death though. I mean, if the plan was to use his death to misdirect us, nobody actually tried to do that, and one of the best candidates for a misdirection would have been sandroba..... | ||
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On May 13 2011 22:39 DropBear wrote: Impervious if you have doubts, don't vote him. I'm going to leave it here for now, and see where it goes. | ||
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Holy crap. A few days ago, I figured we'd find 1 scum out of lynching EM, sinani, and ilj. From the look of it, we may be able to get 2! | ||
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On May 15 2011 14:19 orgolove wrote: + Show Spoiler + Here's the spreadsheet with updated vote results. http://uploadmirrors.com/download/LFRNBCMK/TL_mafia_xxxix_day_4.xlsx First, the criteria again: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ivzZj.png) Day 3 was another really important vote, in hindsight, as sinani206 was revealed to be a red. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bE3v0.png) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/na9FI.png) Day 4 didn't bring too many changes. Though the vote was close at the start of 12 hours, it was more because the reds didn't have the manpower to switch the lynch, rather than there being actually two contested results. And the data shows that. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/0KqkS.png) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/e7zuY.png) + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ruJel.png) How did it feel, having to choose between two of your own? lololol Of course, in red's point of view, it'd be better to lose the new player whose every action had to be directed, and save the vet who could, given a miracle, survive... (ha) Here's the summary. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/GeFlM.png) I have more confidence in this, as it compiles 4 days of data, instead of just 2. But again, because I revealed the methodology before this, it is not completely impossible that the reds tried to coordinate and manipulate the procedures. I'll see about tweaking the factors the next time I play mafia. To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds. I strongly push for ilovejonn's lynch. Hey, can I ask you a quick question? This info is useful to the town as well as useful to the Mafia. They can kill one of the lower-scoring townies with relative impunity..... Why, exactly, did you feel that you needed to post it so early in the night? Also, for everyone else - Don't post any lists right now. Seriously, just don't. Don't post any analysis right now. Wait until the day post - that way the Mafia can't choose to kill someone who seems pro-town..... We've got a huge advantage. Let's not fuck it up. | ||
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chaos13, I realize it looks bad for me, based on what little time I've spent in this game (especially since, why would anyone have a role that needs to be replaced twice?). And, at this point, I fully expect to be lynched at some point in the near future. I was asked to analyze kitaman earlier in the thread. I honestly don't have a solid pro-town or pro-scum read from him. I believed that there were better targets at the time, even though I wasn't convinced he was actually town. That's why I'd actually argue against a lynch of him. Does that make sense? I wasn't actually trying to attack him..... And, when it came to the EM/sinani thing that happened earlier - I don't want the town to be so indecisive - it's too easy for the mafia to manipulate. We need to be decisive with our lynches. At the time, I saw two different relationships involving EM going on. The EM or sinani, as well as the EM or ilj relationships. EM was involved in both of them, so he seemed to be the best lynch (for information purposes), because if he showed as red, we'd have known pretty solidly that sinani and ilj were green. Even if he didn't, I was positive that we'd find one or two reds between sinani and ilj after that. Of course, I was pretty harsh, and that really looked bad when EM popped green. I don't really have a good reason to keep my vote in ilj today. I think there's a chance he's actually scum. And I haven't been persuaded by anything else to change my vote yet..... I know, not necessarily a smart move, however, if anyone else has any ideas, I'm open to them. | ||
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I definitely think there's something fishy going on between orgolove and DropBear. DropBear showed up really, really high on orgolove's statistical analysis, and then after the analysis, his numbers basically dropped as fast as possible. This leads me to think that it's quite possible that one or the other are actually mafia. Either orgolove set it up to frame some townies, or DropBear knowingly did the best he could to lower his rating (which he could only do if he was red). I'm not certain about either of these two, but I do know that if one flips red, I'm 100% certain that the other is town. I don't want to lynch either though, since both have potential to contribute a lot, and we'd have to commit to 2 lynches, in case we were wrong. I'd like to wait for something stronger. Lynching ilovejonn would just be cleaning up the link between him and EM. Suspicious to a few people. Maybe not the best lynch possible, but I don't think it's a bad one. Varpilus did a good job analyzing redtooth earlier. I had a pretty solid pro-town reading earlier in the game, but now I'm not so sure. I wouldn't want to lynch him right now, because he has the potential to contribute a lot, and we'd miss out on that if he's town and we're doing the wrong thing. There's been some people who have been too quiet for my liking. jaminiz is one of them. I wouldn't be against lynching him today (since he seems scummy to some people + lurking), simply because a lurker/less active poster will not help us later on, assuming the worst case scenario of a mislynch. | ||
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On May 17 2011 09:14 Varpulis wrote: Imp, one of the reasons I'm suspicious of redtooth is just that: he has the potential to be very helpful, but he hasn't been at all pro-town or active lately. he's turned from an active and outspoken player who had everybody convinced he was town to a shady guy hiding do that he doesn't have to post an opinion. He's got the potential to be a very good townie, but lately he's been just the opposite. I don't like jaminz as a lynch today. I don't believe that he's scum, personally. That's just it - if we're not sure about a lynch today, why would you want to lynch someone who could potentially be useful in the future? I don't think that checking the changes in activity levels of people is a smart way to analyze someone. Believe it or not, RL things catch up to people..... | ||
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On May 17 2011 10:46 kitaman27 wrote: -Impervious and jaminz are my two remaining scum suspects at the moment. Impervious defended sinani pretty hard without providing any decent reasons besides we would get more information lynching someone else. jaminz doesn't even mention sinani day three or day four until its obvious he can't be saved near the end of the cycle. And information is not important? I was pretty certain that either EM or sinani would be red. Not both, but one of them. At the time, we had much more limited information than we do now. Out of all the possible outcomes: EM is scum, sinani is town - we could be very sure that ilj is town. sinani is scum, EM is town - doesn't tell us anything about ilj's allegiance. EM and sinani are both town - yet again, it doesn't tell us anything about ilj's allegiance. Both being scum is out of the question..... For pretty obvious reasons..... But it would also clear ilj if it somehow happened. So, looking at the info based on what could happen: Lynch EM - Flips Red - We know sinani and ilj are town. Lynch EM - Flips Green - Suspect sinani Lynch sinani - Flips Red - EM is cleared Lynch sinani - Flips Green - Suspect EM The only situation where we would be able to find out more info on the first lynch was the first one - the one I advocated. In hindsight, it was the wrong move, however, based on the info we had, I'll stick to my decision that it was the better lynch at the time. Granted, it wasn't much better than the other options, but it was still the better option. | ||
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On May 17 2011 11:10 chaos13 wrote: Alright, let me point out a few things I'm having problems with here. To begin with, you state that you would be okay with lynching jaminz because he is inactive. This is immediately after you state that you do not want to lynch redtooth, even though he is being inactive. redtooth being inactive is great cause for worry. He is a veteran player, which means that at this point he should be contributing regularly and helping town out. He was even the last person to vote for sinani206, and didn't post reasoning for it in the thread. redtooth should be way more suspicious than jaminz right now. You also state that you would be okay to lynch ilovejonn, just to clear up the confusion about him and EternalMisfit. Not because you think he is mafia, but because people are confused about him. Actually, it's not just because he's inactive - if I had to choose between jaminiz and redtooth for a lynch right now, I'd choose jaminiz. Why? Because I don't know what jaminiz can contribute, while I know that redtooth can deliver, and I'm not sure if either of them are actually mafia. There's no guarantee that redtooth will deliver, but lynching jaminiz would be the lesser of two evils. Also, yes, I am a supporter of policy or information lynches. While it would be nice to be able to peg the mafia in our next two lynches, I find that highly unlikely. So anything we can do that will get us closer to determining who they actually are in the case that we don't lynch correctly is definitely going to help us out later on. We're not in a lylo right now..... | ||
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On May 17 2011 11:11 Varpulis wrote: Impervious, your argument does not sit well with me. I simply do not agree that just because he could be useful later in the case that he's town, we should not lynch him because we think that he's mafia. I'm not suffering from indecision. I've made my choice. It's not just the changing activity levels either. Look through redtooth's last 10 posts. Is there any real content? those 10 posts have a timeline of almost 2 in-game days, and 5 real life days. If you're going to be unable to devote time to the game for that long, you should at least have the courtesy to tell the mod/other players about it. redtooth is experienced enough, he should know that. I basically disappeared over the last few days as well (although not as severe as his), and now that I'm back, I get people pointing a FoS at me..... | ||
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I'll help you get rid of me, so you can actually get back on the right track..... | ||
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and tomorrow I'll be a prime lynch target going now would help more than hurt the town. | ||
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guys..... | ||
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I don`t`think that orgolove is actually scum. I think he`s a bit of a pissed off townie cause we`re not following his list, which is mainly because he isn`t really conveying the information as well as he could be, nor arguing for its validity/usefulness. He's been useful to the town, and the stats will constantly become more useful as the game goes on. He's been an asset to the town. I haven't. So I did the best thing I could think of at the last minute - switch to me instead. | ||
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On May 20 2011 00:25 sandroba wrote: @GM you keep posting lame excuses for the dealy on troll posts. I conclude you are Scum. I question your scumhunting skills since you thought I was scum. | ||
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I'm a drunken zombie. | ||
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On May 30 2011 18:09 Xedat wrote: Were is orgolove saying "I told you" ? I'll say it for him. There was a reason I sacked myself for him..... But, nooooo, you guys go and lynch him afterwards anyways..... | ||
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Impervious
Canada4200 Posts
On May 30 2011 22:51 Mig wrote: He was dt checked and came back red what did you expect the town to do? And sacrificing yourself was really a very very bad idea. You should never ever sacrifice yourself when you know you are a townie for someone you can't be sure of. There will always be some chance that you are wrong but you know 100% what your alignment is. And what is worse is that you sacrificed yourself for ogolove who was worse than useless. He refused to do any analysis whatsoever other than his vote list which proved to garbage. So for like the last 3-4 days he was alive he would just come in post about how bad the town was and disappear. And yet you said he was more useful to the town than you? I think you just kind of panicked when you came back late and saw some people wanted to kill you and when you are being bashed as a townie part of your natural desire is to die to prove that you're right. Actually, I had already "defended" sinani (and definitely appeared to bus him when he was actually lynched), pushed for EM's lynch, and had sandroba (a vet) bellow out in his dying words that I was 100% scum. Plus I had a "bullshit" analysis of kita. Not to mention I showed up late, and there was some questionable/scummy play by the people I replaced. I was going to be a target at one point or another. There was no question of it. In fact, you guys would have been dumb to not lynch me, no matter how well I defended myself..... Statistical analysis would have hit one of the mafia that you guys missed, so it would have actually proved useful..... Of course, it seems like you guys would rather trust your intuition..... Which nails a lot of townies every game..... I'm not saying that stats can nail the mafia alone, but it is definitely a tool you shouldn't dismiss so easily. | ||
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