EPTIf you are planning to start before that, I would then prefer to sign up as a backup.
TL Mafia XXXIX
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
If you are planning to start before that, I would then prefer to sign up as a backup. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
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On accusation of Irish and follow-up I do not buy on the initial accusation of redtooth that Irish is scum just because he said that he was looking forward to play with 3-4 people he knew from before. That by itself is a rather weak case and does not give a scum-signal. The strong response of Irish on chaoser's vote is slightly more scummy to me. But, what seems scummy to me was chaos13's strong defense of Irish. The way I interpret is that both are mafia and are looking out for each other (or) chaos13 is just looking out for Irish just because they know each other from before but they do not know each other's alignment. At this point, the evidence based on posting is rather weak for me to vote on either of them and I won't go beyond just a FoS on them. I am more concerned about the second possible interpretation. I think it would preferable that people defend others on basis of post analysis, activity, behavior on thread, and so on than standing up for folks just because of bias due to prior acquaintanceship. In the current case, if chaos13 is town, he cannot be sure of Irish's alignment at this point of time (barring methods breaking rules of the game) and thus he should leave Irish to make a defense for himself from such a weak accusation. Coming to the defense on him just sends scum vibes to others and if he is really town, it will just mislead the town. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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People who are MIA till this point: jaminz VarpuliS aidnai Mig Takuna Amber[Light] GGQ Beneather VarpuliS - I would like to hear your thoughts on posts till now. You were quite active as town in Surprising Normal Mafia and seems surprising to not see you post much here. I don't believe that he is necessarily scum but in order to pressure him to post. ##Vote: VarpuliS | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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Kurumi Kurumi analysis (he/him refers to Kurumi – all other players are listed by name) + Show Spoiler + I thought I will have any heavy read by the time I am back and game starts but.. the only thing I saw was CHAOS. Saying that,while someone says this,posting some rules being in the other thread,just doing a contribution without any value His first post in the thread which deliberately makes it seems more chaotic that it really is. Frankly, apart from some sporadic arguments about guide posts and really weak accusations, nothing has happened in this thread till now. This post tries to blow things out of proportion and tries to make town more panicky and fearful. + Show Spoiler + Your attacks on Chaoser and redtooth are not supported by any evidence than nitpicking,yes they are posting without much value,but we are just starting off. Drop Chaoser discussion as scum. He will be probably shot this night because he is good at Mafia and is staying really pro-town. It is good to see some lurkers waking up! This seems out of place as it lacks any substance at all. He tries to brown-nose chaoser by strongly supporting chaoser as pro-town without giving any valid reasons of why chaoser cannot be scum. This seems scummy to me since a mafia will know chaoser’s alignment and can use this kind of post to either (a) help chaoser’s town creds if chaoser is mafia or (b) try to get in good books of chaoser as chaoser seems to be a strong pro-town force at the moment. Unless I see strong justification from him about this assertion, this seems a major scum tell to me + Show Spoiler + Chaoser,You wouldn't make any effort to defend Yourself if they were onto something,note that Irish backed off into the shadows,while You try to do something. You have two different approaches to play. Sandroba tries to play the Town Hero,he "has" the sense! Chaos13 does not know what is going on anymore. Again, a lot of different statements which do not have any kind of evidence supporting it. I do not see any signs of sandroba playing town hero or chaos13 being clueless. I want to hear his thoughts on why this is the case. Also, he tries to go back on his analysis on chaoser since he was questioned about it between his last few posts. + Show Spoiler + Oh,also I am voting on Irish Punk. Funny how he and chaos have 13 in the end of their nicknames. By same argument, why not vote for chaoser since chaos13 and chaoser have chaos in their name. A rather weak post trying to piggy bank on the early day accusations on Irish. It seems like a diversionary tactic. + Show Spoiler + I just note that his behaviour is different from Irish_Punk's and it looks pro-town,because of trying to make party going It is really hard to make out who he is referring to but it either refers to chaos13 or chaoser from my understanding in which case again they is lack of consistency in the posting. + Show Spoiler + I just find his activeness into lurking suspicious. Why would You stop contributing when You have nothing to fear of? Not much to analyze in this post. (assuming it refers to chaos13) + Show Spoiler + Chaoser,did You really grab my crappy contribution posts from SC2 to Mafia forums? I did not vote because of coincidence,I just saw it. When I stared my third post I knew that it will go wrong and I will be accused of scum. Bringing more chaos into Day 1 than there was wasn't my intention. + Show Spoiler + Thanks Chaoser,I think I did not see that tip in Newbie thread. I wasn't too cautious,right,but even insane thought can turn out to be true. I have no idea how to reply. The entire series of posts seem to show inconsistency and lack of rationale behind the arguments. On top, a lot of the posts are vague as to who they refer to and seem to be directed towards creating confusion in the thread. I expect Kurumi to be more specific in his future posts and provide explanation to why he went from arguing chaoser being pro-town to raising a FoS and then back to chaoser being pro-town (assuming I understood it correctly which again is an issue with his style of posting). On this note, it would be helpful for the town if people are more specific in their posts rather than being vague as vague statements (which can be misunderstood or misinterpreted) will create confusion and mistrust among the town-folk. Kurumi's series of post, at the very least, is an example of that. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 05 2011 03:18 Kurumi wrote: No,I am just saying that using names all over again is unnatural for me. + Show Spoiler + I just note that his behaviour is different from Irish_Punk's and it looks pro-town,because of trying to make party going It is quite unclear to me who you referring to out here. And there are a couple of places where I can infer who you might be referring to but still comes off a bit vague. But if you read my analysis, the inconsistency did not stem from not using names but due to lack of any analysis of why you thought someone was town/mafia and also due to switching the affiliation of chaoser twice in a series of three posts. Also, the scum vibe comes from a strong assertion of chaoser being pro-town which is not evident apart from the fact that he and redtooth posted some guidelines for them. Since chaoser is a vet compared to the people out here, posting a town guide and acting pro-town might as well as a good tactic as scum to appear as town. In any case, I do not have any specific read on chaoser though. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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On May 05 2011 00:19 Eternalmisfit wrote: I am not too sold on lynching inactives in this large a setup but I do agree that we should keep tabs on who was actively posting and reading the thread. People who are MIA till this point: jaminz VarpuliS aidnai Mig Takuna Amber[Light] GGQ Beneather That was the original list. Since then Amber[Light], aidnai, and jaminz have made a post each. Updated list Mig Takuna GGQ Beneather Keep in mind that these people are the ones who have not posted at all. There might be other folks who might be lurking by making a token post. Also are we going to take the route of weeding out bad/inactive townies or rely on posting for the first lynch? We need to be really careful about lynching habits. I remember during the very first mafia games we would go for inactives and those were actually the players with blue roles. This is a problem though as it's not really the towns fault, but instead the people who have these blue roles that need to keep active. Lynching a blue is more painful to watch than anything else in mafia. As I posted earlier, I am not too keen on lynching a lurker/inactive on the first day in a 30 man setup as a blue kill would hurt us quite a bit. However, if we have someone in the game who has not posted/voted till somewhat close to the deadline and the town cannot reach a consensus on a mafia lynch, I would recommend lynching the inactive person since he was going to be mod-killed anyways. That is my 2 cents on the issue but it would nice to hear thoughts from more experienced players about it. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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Sacrificing 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 0 mafia is bad. Ignoring 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 1 mafia is a pretty good deal. I think you misunderstood my intent in that post. I was more so pointing towards a scenario where the town is split in 2 or 3-way on deciding who to lynch. I was wondering whether lynching an inactive would be a reasonable in that scenario or not? In case of strong scummy behavior or a majority of town believing in someone being scum, I would be all for voting that person for lynching. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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On May 05 2011 06:46 Cthsazsa wrote: I'll give my thoughts so far on this. I've noticed a lot of finger-pointing going around. A good example would be of KillerSOS qucikly criticizing Rising_Pheonix's post as spam, even though all he did was give his viewpoint on the current situation? Sandroba is very quick to accuse people as being scum. As a few people have already said, Kurumi's posts are strange. It seemed like that at first he was trying to attack chaoser, and then started claiming him to be a good pro-townie? AirBlade's post instantly looked like anti-town. He was suggesting that we lynch Kurumi, and then he said that even if Kurumi is a townie, it's still okay. As I said earlier, right now all we're doing is pointing fingers and forcing people into corners to make them look suspicious. I still haven't seen a good, legitimate reason for voting off someone yet. Sandroba was quite finger-happy in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia as well where he was a DT. Now, this does not necessitate that he is town but his play-style in consistent with that game at the very least. I am quite suspicious of Kurumi as he spammed the hell out of this thread with mostly meaningless posts. I was going to give him the benefit of doubt of him being a young kid or being not comfortable in English for his mostly incoherent posting, but he made a rather coherent analysis post as his last post of the day. Since his last post suggests that he is quite capable of making reasonable posts, his other posts seem scummy to me written in order to create confusion and derail discussion. But again, I have never been in a mafia game with him and am not sure of his mafia play habits. I agree with AirBlade seeming anti-town. I am also for voting and lynching Kurumi if I think that he is scum (which seems probable to me at this point) but I would not vote/lynch him just because he posts horribly. This might be a lapse in judgment or scum trying to get a townie killed. FoS: AirBladeOrange | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Analysis of AirBladeOrange + Show Spoiler + I think this long of a post is more suspicious than anything irish punk dude said. First post – Suspicion on Chaoser. No rationale provided. + Show Spoiler + I don't like this post. I never like it when a townie tries to end discussion. The town should always encourage discussion. However, Chaoser does not seem to support Kurumi at all. It seems like Kurumi could be trying to defend his mafia buddy Chaoser but Chaoser is being very serious about not defending Kurumi at all. Maybe Kurumi just made a bad mistake that Chaoser is trying to distance himself from it in order to not be involved if Kurumi turns out to be mafia. Chaoser even did a little investigation on Kurumi's other TL posts which is very interesting. Chaoser is a good player which nobody should forget. I believe he has the potential to be a great townie or a great mafia player. Eternalmisfit did a good analysis of Kurumi as well. I think the worst part about him is his posting method. What's up with that? At least if we lynch him and he flips town, we won't have to attempt to read those type of posts anymore. I agree with your overall assessment of Kurumi and I see him at least as of right now being most likely to be mafia. This is my third mafia game. I played haunted mafia a while ago and I had no idea what was going on the entire game. Then I just played Brown Bear's mafia game in which I was a mafia goon. DropBear, Coagulation, and GMarshal were all on my team. Post 2 (after I made my analysis of Kurumi). The bolded statement is what makes people suspicious of him. In my opinion, it can be possibly a scum trying to get a townie lynched. But since he is going after Kurumi who has sent some scum vibes himself and also this by itself is not sufficient proof, it cannot be deduced directly that he is scum. I still plan to keep a close look in his future posts. + Show Spoiler + Holy shit. I was kidding about lynching Kurumi for his posting style. Look at his posts. Where are the good ones Irish Punk is claiming exist? Back-tracking on the bolded quote as a joke. The second part of the post is interesting as it raises a valid point. Irish Punk supported Kurumi’s good posts which were non-existent (imo) and thus this crates a complicated relationship between the three people most suspected at this point. + Show Spoiler + Please point out his good posts. Preferably the ones that make sense and are not about Lost. Again, a valid post in view of how Kurumi and Irish started to bandwagon on AirBlade. All in all, apart from the ‘joke’ of lynching townies with bad writing habits, there is no visible scum signs from AirBlade. Thus, among the three suspected, he seems least suspicious. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
I am going to vote for Kurumi for now based on his posting which seems rather scum-like to me (apart from his last post which was the only half-decent one). It is placeholder vote for now as there can be future developments in this thread and also I am still willing to give him benefit of doubt provided he explains his style/content of posts. The list of suspicious people imo: Irish_Punk13 - I am not too strongly sold on chaoser's theory of him strongly reacting to accusation. However, his defense of Kurumi seems suspicious to me. AirBladeOrange - I probably won't go as far as to paint him scum but he is someone I will keep an eye on. redtooth - He came up strong in the start of thread, posted guides for new folks, made baseless accusations to start voting, but went MIA since then. It seems like he wanted to boost his pro-town cred early. I would like hear his viewpoint on the rest of the thread. If he stays lurking like this, he comes out suspicious to me. On May 05 2011 11:23 Jackal58 wrote: Stop for a second guys. Everybody that has been placed on your individual scumlists are pretty much noobs. If you think Node put together a scum team of all noobs you need to rethink who you are pushing. GGQ where are you? The current list is not necessarily the entirety of the scum lists. Obviously, it is more likely for new scum players to slip up or drop hints of being scum than the vets. Thus, the lists posted till now do not exclude the possibility than someone such as you, chaoser, redtooth, or kitaman are not scum. The current lists merely represent the fact that none of the them (if they are mafia) have slipped up clearly till now. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Quite a lot of the accusations against Irish are close to grasping at straws. I disagree on his defense against early chaoser/redtooth accusations being scum-tells. However, there is some scummy behavior when he tried to hop on the AO bandwagon and stated Kurumi made some good posts. In light of one decent scum-tell and some rather weak/non-existent scum-tells from Irish, and lack of clear scum-tells from most other people, Irish makes a good candidate for a lynch. Does that mean that I am 100% sure that he is mafia? No This only means that he is highly probable of being mafia. I can make a similar case against Kurumi as well. In both these cases, the two accused of being scum have shown odd behavior. On top, both of them descended into lurking after accusing AirBlade. I would have expected them to be more active after starting the case against AirBlade. At this point, I would like to see them post again and defend their posts and accusations of AirBlade. My current vote on Kurumi is to pressure him to stop his nonsense posting which is derailing the discussion, and provide an explanation for his voting. At this point of time, I do not think anyone can be painted as completely pro-town which even includes the people providing detailed analysis since we have no concrete evidence to go-to and most discussion is based on interpretation and perceived intent of someone's post. Also, the more the discussion is heading along in this thread, the more I feel that lynching Irish might as well be a good idea. As a lot of people in this thread have stated, Kurumi and Irish are prime candidates for their odd behavior. And then there are a few people (e.g. red) that have defended them relatively strongly. Thus, Irish makes a good lynch candidate as he has shown scum-vibes in his posts, and his flipping either red or green will allow the town to ascertain the orientation of a lot of people (redtooth's defense and chaoser's borderline tunneling). | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/QrdnSl&jEcjA) People accusing/FoS/Voting others ![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/QrdnS&jEcjAl) How to read this chart Every player has a number against him. Green number on the column of a player means defense or town call for player # by this player Red number on the column means accusation or mafia call for player # by this player Bold and deep color represents multiple occasions of the said event i.e. strong support/attack This chart is applicable till Takuna's first post on page 33 (not including it) The purpose behind this is to analyze potential relationships between different people which will come into play after we people flip after lynches/deaths. I will post a more detailed analysis with my thoughts based on this within 30-60 mins. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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I am having trouble getting the images to show up so I am posting the imgur links directly. http://imgur.com/jEcjA http://imgur.com/QrdnS | ||
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On May 06 2011 02:55 Forumite wrote: Very interesting numbers, thanks for gathering them. If you accept advice, you may have a bit low threshold on defending, but I might be wrong, defending and picking apart a weak argument are not the same thing. May I suggest an inverted table on the second one, where you show who each player have been accused of being scum by? The short-coming of this analysis is that I have had to use discretion in deciding which lies where and there might be some inherent bias of how I perceive some of the posts. Thus, it is important to read these numbers with a grain of salt. | ||
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On May 06 2011 04:28 orgolove wrote: Oh wow. I didn't even realize it was chaoser himself that made the spreadsheet. Ugh. Hmm.... For the record, it was me who made the spreadsheet. I was unable to link the pictures properly so chaoser later posted the images based on my links. Unfortunately, I did not save the spreadsheet after making the images from them. Also, the fact that someone did an analysis does not mean he/she is not scum. Now, if that analysis turns up correct on a flip might suggest that he/she has town/mafia-creds. But, at this point, there is no such evidence for anyone. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
The people who voted for him: sandroba - one of the first ones to accuse Kurumi. MIA since then chaos13 - Voted for Kurumi was bringing spam in the discussion and later defended his vote by saying that the posting style did not change. ilovejonn - suspicious of Kurumi for inane posting. He makes a post just 4 min before the deadline saying he wanted to change his vote but wont since it is pointless. This seems suspicious since he has not posted any FoS on anyone else apart from Irish/Kurumi. It seems like a scum trying to get town-cred since he knows Kurumi will flip town in a few minutes. sinani206 - bandwagon vote on Kurumi. Forumite - If he was scum, he would know that Kurumi is town and thus, there is no point switching his vote near the end to Kurumi. It was all but decided that Kurumi was going to be lynched and he could have stayed off the radar by not voting for him at that point. VarpuliS - Made a strong case against Kurumi. Eternalmisfit - Made the initial case against Kurumi and has FoS/argued against Kurumi throughout. AirbladeOrange - Joked about going for Kurumi even if he is town because of his posting style. Has consistently FoS Kurumi GGQ - not too many posts to go by. Made a couple of posts in suspicion of Kurumi and then voted for him orgolove - tunnels redtooth throughout the day but votes for Kurumi w/o explanation Mig - not too many posts to go by. Made a couple of posts in suspicion of Kurumi and then voted for him Amber[LighT]- not too many posts to go by. Made a post in suspicion of Kurumi and then voted for him Beneather - Again, no explanation of his vote. Also, he made a post about what is an 'inactive' in context of mafia and then acts as a perfect example of that. ------------- @ilovejohn It is interesting that you are claiming me to be scum for doing the exact things you did: 1. Made a post-by-post analysis of someone. 2. Thought Kurumi & AirBlade were suspicious based on their incoherent posting and suggesting to lynch a townie posts, respectively. Also, I do not share your viewpoint that the spreadsheet was pointless. It is NOT a post of who responded to who but who accused someone of being mafia and who defended someone of being town. I made a similar list (albiet in post text form itself as there were only 9 people) in Suprisingly Normal Mafia as well since it allow you to voting/FoS relationships between people. Of course, you need to see the context and content of a post accusing/defending someone but the purpose of the sheet is to pin-point the person who needs to be studied instead of reading the entire posts of everyone. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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This will be my only post in regard of this matter since it is reaching a point where it does nothing but derail discussion away from finding mafia. Personally, I will post in a more clear and concise manner (close enough but not necessarily exactly following the format). Red and anyone else are free to disregard if they think that format is greater than content. I will still read and take into account any good analysis (regardless of co-sponsors and 3 hr time/3 page limits and other such limitations). | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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KillerSoS is not a surprising kill since he had slipped up that he was blue which was further brought to notice by a prominent post by jaiminz and subsequent post by chaoser. This made him a clear scum target. Apart from that, he did not make any strong analysis. However, the killing of both Jackal and aidnai seems surprising to me. There is always a possibility they were selected randomly by scum but there are some common links between the two deaths. Neither jackal nor aidnai made strong suggestions of being a blue from their posts. The common link between the two was both were confident that Kurumi was obv-town (which turned out to be correct) and both of them did, in fact, suspect Cthsazsa at some point of time. Apart from this, Jackal mostly spent time tunneling Cthsazsa and made a list of 4-5 suspicious people at the end of night. This, in fact, may be a legitimate reason to kill him if he had fingered multiple people correctly in that list. On the other hand, aidnai’s death has perplexed me a bit. His three main contributions have been going after Irish, defending Kurumi, and supporting redtooth’s argument. None of them, by themselves, seem strong enough to dictate a kill choice. Regarding Redtooth Based in view of these aidnai’s death, I am not sold to the idea that redtooth is scum. The main argument used against redtooth is that he trying to derail town discussion and decrease town activity by trying to enforce a series of rules and standards. Aidnai was the only one who was in complete agreement with redtooth. If you were redtooth and scum at the same time, and your goal was to decrease town activity by enforcing these standards, would you decide to kill the only person who whole-heartedly supported you on your endeavor. Apart from the derailing the discussion argument (which I thought of as a valid one), the entire suspicion case against redtooth seems weak. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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Can you explain the series of these three posts. They are in complete contradiction with each other. Care to explain why you thought redtooth was scum, town, and scum again in that order? I have not seen any convincing arguments either way from you for this chain of posts. 788 901 935 | ||
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On May 08 2011 07:10 sandroba wrote: I will post a long analysis on Amber[Light] tomorrow. I'm hoping he will adress some points I made about him. I'm VERY confident he is mafia. Irish is a wasted vote, unless he posts and votes before the deadline, as otherwise he will be modkilled. I would really love to see your post in this regard as I am getting a null-tell or a weak scum-tell at most from his posting. + Show Spoiler + I would like to sugest we focus on Cthsazsa and Amber right now (and Irish if he begin posting again). Spliting the votes between multiple players is not good for town, and will give mafia an easy way out. If you believe one of these 2 players to be mafia vote for them instead of voting for someone else. I am also lacking a confidence in your STRONGLY confident post. A few pages ago you had a strong theory that redtooth was scum which you discarded on the way to this post. Also, Cthsazsa was mentioned for the first time by you a few posts ago and you have given no rationale as to why you think he is scum. Even if you want to limit the discussion to 2-3 people to be lynched, why the sudden shift from redtooth to Cthsazsa? Why not focus on redtooth and Amber? If you were confident that redtooth was scum, doesn't that imply Cthsazsa is town (since redtooth and Cthsazsa have voted for each other and argued strongly against each other)? So, why are we going after a townie then? This clear disconnect is making me wary of your analysis. Are you afraid that redtooth flipping green this early will provide town a lot of information this early? It certainly seems like it as you have accused him too often in this thread but then backed off every time. | ||
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On May 08 2011 08:01 sandroba wrote: No, I changed my mind about redtooth. His analysis on cthsazsa made me change my mind about him, and he's too fearless and outspoken of his opinions, so it's not very likely he is scum. His plan was misguided, and sometimes I misinterpret poor logic with scum behaviour. My main suspicion about redtooth was the fact that he was willing to lynch killerSOS (who hinted blue) day1 and he was stubborn about chaoser (which I have a town read on) being scum and providing weak reasoning. If you noticed, I asked for Amber[Light]'s opinion on Redtooth, and that also contributed to changing my mind. On the other hand, the analysis I will provide on Amber[Light] has nothing to do with poor logic. It will prove that the actions he has taken so far only make sense with a scum mentality. You shouldn't attack my analysis before I even post it, that makes me wary of you. Amber said redtooth was possibly town. If Amber is scum (which you are now claiming), and redtooth is town, why would he defend redtooth? On top of that, if you think Amber is scum and he is defending redtooth, won't that make you even more suspicious of redtooth? In fact, the fact that Amber thinks redtooth might be town, should make you press even more for a lynch between red and him. Again, there seems a clear disconnect in your logic. | ||
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On May 08 2011 08:27 chaoser wrote: Bussing happens all the time. It's not the motive that really gives it away so much as how someone goes about defending or attacking someone. Again, it is not the idea of bussing. Of course, Amber can be bussing. But, it is ludicrous to think that Sandroba listened to Amber's arguments, made the decision that Amber was bussing redtooth (someone he strongly suspects), and then changed his mind on redtooth's leaning (based on the fact the someone he suspects to be scum can be possibly bussing about someone else he suspects to be scum). It is either the above that happened or it seems like a mafia slip-up. I would have bought a newbie-slipup argument or fallacious logic argument if this was someone like Cthsazsa or KillerSoS posting. However, this comes from someone I know to be sharp enough as town from the game I played with him, and some-one who received high accolades for his play in the Sleeper Cell Mafia. FoS: Sandroba | ||
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On May 08 2011 08:44 chaoser wrote: Ok, we need to focus on a few people and not just point fingers at everyone cause then mafia can jsut blend in. At this point either write up an actual argument against someone if you're going to FoS them. What are you opinions on Amber, cthsazsa, and irish? I am all for focusing on a few people but it is Sandroba who is bringing in new people everytime. He started the day with Irish and Redtooth, then ditched Irish along the way and focused on redtooth (he claimed a strong theory). Then, somewhere along the way due to mysterious happenings (no explanations provided), his suspicions of redtooth faded away and he started a campaign against Amber and cthsazsa. His campaign against cthsazsa is based on arguments of someone whom he has strongly suspected throughout the thread. I am suspicious of cthsazsa since he has been band-wagoning on his votes without any solid arguments to go with it. The fact that Jackal tunneled him and aidnai listed him as the 2nd most suspicious person in his books and both of them died also adds to it. However, I still need to do a re-analysis of his postings to be confident. As for Irish, regardless of his leaning, I am pegging a mod-kill on him today. If I had to guess, I would say if he turns up again before the end of the day, he is scum; if not he will flip green on mod-kill. Someone lurking for more than 72 hours after being accused by more than half the town is either a disinterested townie (in which he will not show up) or a noobscum. Before I tell my opinion on Amber, I would like to hear Sandroba's arguments since he is the one insisting on voting on him. Also, it is interesting that you claim my FoS doesn't have an argument attached to it while yours against Amber amounts to similar content as mine against Sandroba. You are using the argument that the reason Amber provided for voting for Kurumi is scummy. I find the logical disconnect behind Sandroba's sudden change in FoS and the consequent incoherent explanation a lot more scummy than your argument against Amber. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
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I find it amusing that you ask for my opinion on cthsazsa but have never posted one yourself. On May 08 2011 03:44 sandroba wrote: @ilovejonn no I'm not saying that. I'm saying that cthsazsa was never in any danger of being lynched and kurumi's lynch was pretty much garanteed when he voted for him. If he wanted to avoid suspicion he would have placed his vote on cthsazsa instead. That's why I don't feel it's very likely he is mafia. Also, the very argument you are making against lynching Beneather can be made for Amber. At the time Amber voted, Kurumi had 10 votes and the next target had 4 votes. Also, the town mood was dead set on lynching Kurumi. According to your argument itself, if Amber is scum, what purpose does it serve for him to vote for Kurumi and draw suspicion onto himself. | ||
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His change of heart statement and my issue with it + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 08:25 Eternalmisfit wrote: Amber said redtooth was possibly town. If Amber is scum (which you are now claiming), and redtooth is town, why would he defend redtooth? On top of that, if you think Amber is scum and he is defending redtooth, won't that make you even more suspicious of redtooth? In fact, the fact that Amber thinks redtooth might be town, should make you press even more for a lynch between red and him. Again, there seems a clear disconnect in your logic. His accusations against redtooth throughout the thread + Show Spoiler + Redtooth Holy shit, my whole team is exposing themselves like crazy. Time to chainsaw and discredit chaoser! I fail to see how this players you are calling obvtown are obvtown. Your logic is pretty fail: kurumi and irish_punk are so blatantly scum that they MUST NOT be scum so they MUST be town. If you keep following this logic doesn't this make them obvscum all over again? Then he picks Killer_SOS to focus on for day1 lynch. That's pretty dumb if you are town. That's all I have to say for now. @GGQ I would fully suport redtooth lynch. And yes, I'm saying Irish and Redtooth are scum. Alright I have a theory and I strongly believe RedTooth is mafia: There were some people defending kurumi, but none of them came out so strong, to the point of calling him obvtown, except for red. In the same post he sugests we should change to killerSOS, who had hinted blue at that point. I feel if he was such a great analitical mind that could see that obviously kurumi wasn't scum, he would have noticed that killer could be blue, and advocating his lynch on day 1 was a dumb move, unless you are mafia. Then the post claiming not to know scum could pm amongst themselves. Again, if you are so experienced to the point of knowing kurumi was obvtown at that point, wouldn't you know that scum can exchange pm in this type of setup? It seems to me like a blatant atempt to look inocent. Then he goes ahead and makes that post that says town is sucking and says only himself, jackal and iadnai have defended kurumi. So tonight the kills were jackal and aidnai, none of which were defending kururmi with such certainty as himself. Those kills pretty much draw suspicion away from him. It looks too much like a plan. I don't see any reason for mafia having to snipe jackal and aidnai, based on their posting. That's the only purpose I can think of for them. He then posts his plan about organizing town. So I play along trying to find his true intentions behind it. If he was really trying to reduce spam and improve thread quality, he would be more flexible and make those a guideline, not a rule. I pressed him to change it and provided good reasoning and yet he refused to change his mind. As I've stated most likely only a few will follow those guidelines as they are presented, and that would slip town even more, and cause good analysis to be disregarded and random fos to be thrown around for a group of people. He then, states he's tired from arguing with chaoser (huh?) and goes away. I believe his plan was to split town all along. Also, his exchange with Jackal just before the end of the night. It seems like Jackal was onto him. + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 23:31 Jackal58 wrote: But as town you wanted him dead? But if you were scum you would never want him dead? But as town you did? But as scum you wouldn't? So since you voted for him you're obviously town right? Because obvscum would want him alive? But you have no problems with voting for obvtown? It's not rape. It's surprise sex. Enjoy it scummy. It is clearly a defensive post trying drive attention away from himself. Sandroba, are you claiming that everyone who voted for Kurumi was town coz according to your argument no scum will vote for him. If yes, doesn't that invalidate your suspicion against Amber. If not, Why the pre-emptive defense on your name being included in a list? This seems quite scummy to me. People tunneled Irish the whole of Day1 for being far less defensive but are completely ignoring this blatant over-reaction from someone who is being FoS along with a group of people. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 02:18 sandroba wrote: Ok, I've changed my mind. I think we should save the redtooth discussion for another day and focus on the more obvious ones, like cthsazsa, irish and amber. Seriously Amber[Light], how hard is it to give an opinion on something instead of listing all the possible scenarios? Your posts are extremelly filled with fluff and very defensive. Your huge ass response for chaoser FoS was not needed at all. All I can read from your post is I'm a great scum hunter, you shouldn't kill me now because I'll have all scum on day 3. Also in this post: You seem pretty sure you are going to survive the night, don't you? FoS: Amber[Light] Yeah, cthsazsa is a more obvious target. In fact, he is so much more obvious that you have never mentioned him in any of your posts till but yet choose discard redtooth from your suspicion list in his favor for no reason what-so-ever. [Whenever you post you point out the possible scenarios instead of actually saying something relevant or useful. You refuse to take a stance on anythhing. You claimed chaoser was tunneling you when he first brought up his fos on you. You are over defensive. You are scum. After the great-over defensive reaction, you gave to a list including your name, you argue that someone is scum because he is over-defensive. Again, contradictory logic. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2011 08:44 sandroba wrote: Amber never really defended anyone. He has been extremelly whish-washy. You can FoS me all you want but my analysis will be undeniable. That I promise. Again, someone who has been wishy-washy throughout the day is FoSing someone for being wishy-washy. I await your undeniable analysis and it better be convincing. Till then, I am going to keep my vote on you. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 08 2011 22:30 sandroba wrote: @Ethernalmisfit I won't bother arguing with you because you are clearly using Chainsaw defense. This is going to be my only post on the matter. If you trully beleive I'm scum go ahead and vote for me. I already stated my reasons for my change of heart regarding redtooh. Recently DropBear has had the same change of heart. Are you saying that we are all scum? Are you saying Redtooth is scum? Are you saying Amber is not scum? What are you saying? I am not saying redtooth is scum or everyone else is scum. I am not even saying that Amber is not scum (just that I am getting a null-tell from him). I am saying that YOU are scum. The change of heart is not the reason I think you the scum. The scummy reason (and incoherent logic) behind it seems like a mafia slip-up. Also, combine that with your over-defensive behavior and subsequent FoS on you by Jackal. It seems so convenient that Jackal got hit by mafia after that and this post slipped under the radar. + Show Spoiler + The list argument is pretty dumb. If I were mafia I would NEVER want to see kurumi dead. He was basically doing mafia's job for them. He was spaming the thread, creating a lot of confusion and posting a lot of nonsense. There is no way in hell you could know for sure kurumi was town unless you were mafia. My suspicions are on the people who came to his defensess for no reason, because he was "obvtown". Seriously, you guys must be on a whole other level, because calling kurumi obvtown is like calling a rape a beautiful act between two people in love. Give me a break. This post by itself has the biggest scum tell on you. I mean no one even did a FoS on you before this and you and go ahead and post this pre-emptive defense. Seems like someone panicked and slipped up. Btw, I like your style. Trying to to make a me vs town scenario by posting 'Are you saying that we are all scum?' I never claimed anyone else was scum apart from you but you felt the necessity to relate yourself with the rest of the town so that it seems I am accusing others as well. More scummy posting. | ||
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On May 08 2011 23:14 sandroba wrote: Do you agree that spreading our votes between many candidates is detrimental to the town? Do you think none of those proposed candidates are scum? For what reasons? I do not believe spreading the votes between many candidates is good for town. But, I am sure as hell I do not want you or chaoser telling me which candidates should in the smaller voting pool. The last 2-3 pages, you (and chaoser as well) have been arguing to include their choice of candidates in that smaller list. I think I stated before that both Cthsazsa is a possible scum read to me. I do not believe that Amber is scum based on his posting content but his lurking makes me suspicious. But, then again, if you were a vet like Amber and scum, and had a bandwagon getting formed against you, would you start lurking hard-core to draw even more attention on yourself? | ||
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both Cthsazsa and Irish are | ||
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possible scum. | ||
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On May 08 2011 23:51 sinani206 wrote: Lyter chaos13 kevconsim Takuna Beneather This is the list of people that have not contributed to day 2. At least some of the scum must hide in the inactives. Kevconsim was a replacement for Rising_Phoneix, who did not even vote on day 1. Rising_Phoenix is an extreme case of inactivity, which is a scumtell. Kevconsim has inherited his role and is doing the same thing. This is VERY suspicious. As such, my vote is for kevconsim unless he starts posting some useful stuff and voting. ##Vote: kevconsim Who do you think is scum, kev? Please read the thread. Node said that kev had to withdraw since he had a family emergency. | ||
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They have never posted any evidence that they know the other is pro-town but it always seems that they are too confident that the other one is on the same alignment as them. @Sandroba Why do you think Chaoser is so pro-town that you are vehemently defending him? I mean when redtooth accuses Chaoser, you ask him to have a vote off between yourself and Amber and NOT Chaoser and Amber. It seems like you are more confident that Chaoser is town than yourself being town? Where does confidence come from? | ||
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On May 09 2011 01:20 Eternalmisfit wrote: It is quite surprising that Chaoser keeps on coming in defense of Sandroba (when I was suspicious of Sandroba) and Sandroba is not defending Chaoser I meant Sandroba is now defending Chaoser | ||
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On May 09 2011 03:49 sandroba wrote: Also I'm not connected with chaoser in any sense except that I'm pretty confident he is town and we are both pushing for Amber[Light]'s lynch. I have yet to see any analysis from you why you think chaoser is pro-town. This is possibly the third or the fourth time you have posted this statement yet every-time avoided conveniently avoided providing any explanation of it. Tell me, why do you think Chaoser is pro-town? What posts/arguments give you such a strong town read on him? | ||
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On May 09 2011 04:30 chaoser wrote: We've been talking about these two all day and I think it's fair to say that at the end of the day we get the most out of lynching one of these two. That being said, people should decide on whether to vote on one or the other. Voting all willy-nilly on people that no one else is focusing on (Beneather, Forumite, redtooth, and kevconism) isn't helping anyone and just allows mafia to randomly vote and not have to deal with the consequences. Cthsazsa (4) Conversion redtooth VarpuliS ilovejonn Amber[light] (3) chaoser sandroba chaos13 Sandroba (3) Eternalmisfit Amber[Light] DropBear Again, Chaoser conveniently drops Sandroba off the list even though Amber and Sandroba have equal votes at this point (of which chaos13's vote seems as bandwagon-ish as it can be). Having said that, despite my misgivings with Chaoser and Sandroba, I do agree that the vote is way too fragmented and with 10 people yet to vote, mafia can easily make last minute votes to influence the lynch. I would agree with focusing on these three in my opinion. | ||
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On May 09 2011 04:44 chaoser wrote: Because sandroba is probably the most pro-townie player I've seen in this game. I hosted Sleeper Cell Mafia and so I've seen his scum play. He knew Ace and Jackal were mafia from day 1 and so it's a decent read on his scum play and his play in this game is not at all like his play in that game. I think this debate is going in circles. I have a weak suspicion on you and a strong scum-read on Sandroba. You and Sandroba both seem to have a strong scum read on Amber. Given this, in the decision on who to include and who not to include in the smaller focus set, both you and me will be biased. I would prefer to have Cthasazsa and Sandroba and you would prefer to have Cthazazsa and Amber. Given this situation, would you trust me to make the decision of a smaller focus set alone? I bet not. And that the exact same reason I cannot trust you make the decision of deciding who should be included in the smaller focus set. I am not sure of your leanings and have not seen any strong analysis showing why you have a strong town read on Sandroba. If you can convince me with such an analysis, I would gladly concede on having Sandroba removed from the focus set. But until then, since enough people are suspicious of both Amber and Sandroba, I would recommend having both of them and Cthazazsa in there. | ||
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On May 09 2011 05:19 chaoser wrote: Here's a question then, why would two mafia, since you have a weak scum read on me and a strong read on Sandroba, try their ass off to get Amber out of all people lynched. He has no useful posts (if you're going to compare his posts to sandroba, you'll see that sandroba is at least contributing and giving opinions on matters. Amber has been pretty much saying the same thing everyone else is saying, copying ideas from everyone else who has written about sandroba.) If we were mafia you think we'd BOTH stick our necks out to get AMBER out of all people lynched? It wasn't even like the Amber situation only came up after sandroba situation came up to draw pressure off amber, it happened the other way around. Let me recap the events of last night. You started off with a FoS on Amber which was followed by Sandroba's rather quick jump from redtooth onto Amber. At the point where I first pointed Sandroba seemed suspicious, a bandwagon seemed to be forming against Amber. Several others started stating Amber seemed a little scummy without backing it up with any analysis. If I had not raised my suspicions on Sandroba, a similar bandwagon to the one on Kurumi would have formed on Amber. Even if Amber flipped green/blue after a lynch, it would be hard to pinpoint any scum strongly since a large number of townies would have been mixed in with the scum (like what happened with Kurumi). At this point, even if the lynch of Amber goes ahead and he flips town, it will be quite clear who all are suspicious. As to why Mafia would want Amber dead, I (and also several others in this thread) have got a potential blue read from Amber. Getting a blue lynched would be a big victory for scum at this point since town already lost 2 blues on Night1. As for my case against Sandroba, I have stated it before and do not see the necessity of restating it again. | ||
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We are missing 4 votes: Rising_Phoenix, Takuna, Irish_Punk13, and Beneather. I am right now debating where to place the vote between Amber and Cthsasza. Frankly, unless the town wants me to essentially pick someone between the two, I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba. However, here are my thoughts regarding the two of them Amber I am not fully convinced that he is scum from his posts per se. The only red flag is his generic inactivity. However, his flip will provide the town a lot of information. Based on his flip, at the very least, we can be sure whose analysis is worthwhile and who all are either noobtown/scum. At the same time, I don't feel too good about lynching for information. Cthsasza He has shown some scummy behavior. Most of his posts/analysis doesn't contribute anything and are there for the sake of posting. Also, he has been quite defensive to accusations. However, his flip won't provide much useful information and quite possibly the next day will again delve into Amber discussion all over again. If the town strongly wants me to vote for someone between these two, I would vote for Cthsasza. | ||
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That makes no sense at all. You acknowledge the fact that your going to get more out of lynching Amber and that he's the better vote. Yet you're still voting for that other guy? Note that I said if I had to choose between the two. I still prefer voting for Sandroba who I believe is scum. But, since no one is in agreement with me, pursuing that will go nowhere. @chaoser I do not think voting for information is the best course of action. Also, if you are so confident that Amber is scum, why are you not pursuing the vigi hit that at Amber esp. in light of the fact that you don't have any reservations using the hit later in a pointless bet between you and redtooth. | ||
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On May 09 2011 10:45 kitaman27 wrote: Your vote on sandroba is pointless this late in the day. You should take a stand one way or another. In that case, I am going to put my vote on Cthsasza. | ||
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On May 09 2011 11:23 redtooth wrote: What is there to not trust? If Amber flips red then we trust him. If he flips green then we vigi hit Chaoser. I agree with this. If Amber flips Miller/Red, we trust him. If not, we do a vigi hit. | ||
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On May 09 2011 11:51 Varpulis wrote: Wait, what? Chaoser claimed DT and we're making the logical decision to lynch the person he said came back mafia? He is the guy who voted for kevconsim, the player who replaced Rising_phoenix and then asked to be replaced again. Back on the last minute change, if chaoser is blue and Amber flips red, my entire analysis of the day has been garbage. I was quite certain that Sandroba and Chaoser were scum and working together. | ||
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Though, Irish did flip red which means mafia is at 2 KP. Also, it means that our medics are still alive. | ||
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I will read and respond to your arguments chaoser tomorrow morning, but I guess it will be hard to clear my name considering how active I was at going after Sandroba and defending Amber as well. | ||
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On May 09 2011 14:08 chaos13 wrote: I would like to propose a ridiculous theory, please tell me if it's possible and/or complete garbage. chaoser is scum. He knows the roles of his scumbuddies, and decides to announce DT and that he checked Amber last night, seeing that there was already a good number of votes for that player. Further, he gets his scum team to switch votes from Cthsazsa to Amber, and then declares that there must be a good number of scum hiding in the Cthsazsa votes. Even better, he is guaranteed that medics will waste themselves on protecting him every night, and he can claim roleblock and not be worried about not providing results for further days, and he can also rest comfortably knowing that if someone tries to accuse him of being scum, he can turn it on them and blame them for trying to accuse a DT. At this point, it is extremely unlikely that Chaoser is scum. With Amber flip alone, there would still be a distant possibility that it was a rather high-level play by the scum. But, when you add the fact that Chaoser tunneled hard for a Irish lynch on day 1(who also flipped red), I would confidently place Chaoser as town. I would also place Sandroba as likely town for similar reasons as Chaoser since he tunneled quite hard for an Amber lynch and was onto him before a lot of other people started voting for him. He also raised FoS on Irish on Day1 as well. It isn't as iron-clad as Chaoser's case but seems town to me. At this point, I need to go back to the drawing board for my analysis since I am 0/3 (Kurumi, Amber, and Chaoser/Sandroba). | ||
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Even though I know I am town, here is why it is beneficial for the town to take a vigi-hit on me: If I flip scum, the town gets a mafia kill regardless so it is a good deal for the town. If I flip town, the town does not waste the next day trying to lynch me instead of focusing on other scum. Even as town, my reads have been bad and this flip won't be too detrimental on the town. Also, unless it is confirmed that I am town tonight, my analysis/posts will most likely be perceived as scum trying to distract attention on someone. A DT check on me would not work since chaoser is almost guaranteed to be role-blocked. And, even if there is another DT, he shouldn't claim once he gets a town role-check on me since that would make him vulnerable to mafia kill the night after. The only con would be losing the vigi-hit when I flip town but in place of that vigi-hit you get a chance to focus on finding scum and lynch mafia the upcoming day. | ||
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On May 10 2011 08:40 sandroba wrote: Eternal, what you did there only contributed to me thinking you are scum, because if you are town, wasting a vig hit on you is definitively anti-town. However if you are scum, asking for a vig hit and providing this kind of explanation may lead some to believe that you are trying to contribute and reconsider their thoughts. If you want to prove your worth to the town the best way to do it is to catch scum. If I'm alive tomorrow I'll take a look at your posts and see if somehow I was wrong about you. It is a catch-22 situation for me. If I posted analysis on someone, I would be called scum for trying to divert attention. If I don't post, I am scum for lurking or becoming inactive after active for last few days. If I respond to why I am not scum, I will be perceived as scum for being too defensive. Even the above post that I made can be thought of as scummy. Regardless of the above, if I am alive tomorrow, I still plan to be active and hunt for scum. | ||
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Sandroba He, along with Chaoser, were responsible for tunneling Amber and keeping the focus on him till his lynch. If he had backed off at the last moment, it might have been likely that Amber would not have lynched. Thus, it is unlikely that his pressure on Amber was a bus either. He is strongly town in my books Kenpachi Vig claim Unless, someone else claims, he is town also. Kitaman 1. He was right on his Irish vote on Day1. 2. He called for a day vig-hit on Amber towards the end of Day2 (Amber was actually trailing by one or two votes at that point) These two events suggest that he might be town (the caveat being the above might be bussing of mafia) Voting trends on Amber and its analysis It is possible to extract some information on voting trends on Amber. The votes on Amber are split into two categories: the ones before the DT claim and the ones after the DT claim. This analysis presupposes that both Amber and Cthsazsa are not scum (which is why I don't claim all 8 early voters of Amber are definite town reads). Before the DT claim, it was a close voting race going on between Amber and Cthsazsa. Till the votes became 8-8, every vote for Cthsazsa was followed by a vote for Amber (not the other way round). Thus, the first 8 people who voted on Amber, in fact, were making Amber much more likely to be lynched. If Cthsazsa is not scum, it is unlikely that they scum will bus on Amber when he is trailing a townie (and a lot of people are convinced that Cthsazsa is scum). Thus, the vote patterns on Amber suggest the first 8 people who voted on Amber are likely to be town. Any votes for Amber after the DT claim need to be discarded from analysis since at that point, it was a sure-shot Amber lynch and scum can vote on Amber to drop suspicion off them. | ||
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Yes, I am claiming to be a Vanilla townie and I think that DropBear is town as well since he claimed the same. The keyword being Vanilla. It should be possible for other townies to confirm this rather easily. I won't post the role PM since: [1] I have PM'd Node to confirm whether posting role PM (similar to Sleeper Cell Mafia) is allowed here or not. [2] I believe even if it is allowed to post role PMs, it should be saved for LYLO situation to ascertain scum (esp since it is likely that we have no more DTs). In Hindsight, the post arguing a vigi-hit on myself was stupid as I did not think it could be perceived in the way you analyzed. It just shows my inexperience with the game. | ||
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On May 10 2011 22:47 chaos13 wrote: Eternalmisfit, I would like to point out that the scum team is being coached by some very experienced players. Coagulation is a scary good player, and the chances that the basic town role is called "Vanilla Townie" is extremely high. He would know this. There are far better breadcrumbs you could have chosen than that. Why not a phrase that was within the role PM rather than a generic name? The word vanilla is a weak defense of your status as townie. I posted the EXACT reasons why I did not go beyond that. I also have dropped sufficient hints in that post that people can figure out for themselves. Also, I want to make it clear that I am not asking anyone else to role-claim. I role-claimed since it seems like the town is going on a wild goose chase after me and scum can just hide through the day. As I can see, it has reached a point where anything I say/do is being perceived as scummy, I am not going to bother to post any defense of myself beyond this, and will just focus on analyzing and hunting scum. | ||
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I just went through his posts. He is sending mixed signals to me. He has very few posts that have actual content. Most of his posts are just fluff. The posts that have content are incoherent. His first analysis Analysis of Kurumi Between these two posts, he voted for Kurumi. He doesn't include Kurumi's analysis initially but then later comes up and says that he thinks Kurumi and analytical and agressive. Up til this point, there has been nothing to show that Kurumi was analytical in nature. In fact, the only person to make a similar claim at that point of time was Irish, who flipped red. This indicates possible scummy behavior. Then, he drops gems like these ones which make no sense to me: Kevconsim Vote Unless he had not been reading the thread at all, he should have known why kevconsim was not posting (he was not playing). In fact, I point out the fact in the post just after that but don't get a response. Second gem He makes this post about a six man vote swing on Amber after Chaoser claimed DT on the previous page and the entire discussion between the DT claim and his post has been on that topic. Based on this, it can be concluded either he does not read the thread at all but in that case why would he bother to vote/post/play at all. Also, he is on near both the day posts and has the time to respond to GMarshal's troll posts. The other possibility is he is lurking scum that is barely posting enough and acting as a noob townie. At this point, I would think the scum likelihood is higher (since most disinterested townies have been mod-killed by now), but I am not too confident since I have been wrong in my judgment the last couple of days. ---------------- I am heading to work at this point but I will be back later to post my thoughts on other people during the course of the day. | ||
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Jackal is famed for his tunnelling, which could easily be manipulated or at least attempt to manipulate it before killing him (if I was mafia, I know that I’d want to keep him alive as a townie, unless he had a blue role). And since KillerSOS seemed to be a suspicious player, as a member of the mafia, I can’t see it being a stretch to actually push for his lynch at a later date….. And I did not get a vibe from him that he was blue. KillerSoS slipped out that he was blue in one of his posts which was prominently noted by jaminz in the post following it. His kill doesn't come as a surprise. I was confident on Day2 that Jackal was killed coz he caught on the defensive behavior shown by Sandroba (since I was confident that Sandroba was scum). However, the later events of the day showed my theory to be wrong and I am puzzled as to why Jackal was killed. EternalMisfit - Consistently defending Amber[Light], attacking Cthsazsa, Sandroba, Chaoser and Redtooth. Very focused during day2. Stopped the attack once Amber[Light] flipped. Once Amber flipped red and Chaoser did a DT claim, it was obvious that Chaoser was blue and also highly probably that Sandroba was town. Thus, it blowed holes in my theory that Sandroba and Chaoser were scum and acting in co-ordination. Why would I keep going after Sandroba after my analysis was proven to be wrong? As to the other two, I don't think I attacked Redtooth. I was suspicious that Cthsazsa was scum but I stated clearly that I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba. @EternalMisfit Both your linked posts against sinani206 have to do with him not reading the thread enough, they don´t prove he´s scum. It doesn't prove that he is scum but his voting/posting has been suspicious. If he is not reading the thread, how does he know that who all are inactive? You will need to at-least skim the thread to figure that out. Inactivity alone put 5 people on the radar which he listed so why did he go specifically for kevconsim. | ||
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Also, for a dis-interested townie, it seems rather suspicious that he is on exactly at the time of day post on both days and missing at the night posts. | ||
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Node said no to a full PM role reveal. From the OP Mafia Godfather You are the nefarious leader of the mafia. The mafia chooses the godfather from amongst themselves on night 1. The godfather chooses a role to appear as when role checked. Once chosen, the false role cannot be changed. Sum can always have a GF since they elect him among themselves. Unless the scum team decided to not elect a GF (which is unlikely), there is bound to be a GF. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 11 2011 06:58 Cthsazsa wrote: He knew Amber was mafia, so he insisted on keeping his vote on Sandroba. Knowing he would look suspicious if he kept his vote on Sandroba (A lynch on him obv wasn't going to happen), and not wanting to vote on his fellow scum, He uses the scapegoat, i.e. me. Firstly, regarding your other post, I stated clearly that I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba as I was convinced that he was scum more than you. However, a few people stated towards the end of the day that I should take a stand between the two of you and thus I voted for you. If I was scum and knew Amber was scum, why wouldn't I have voted for Cthsazsa long before that point in order to increase the lead between Amber and Cthsazsa instead of focusing on Sandroba (it was clear that he was not going to be voted at some time before that). As for ilovejonn's accusations and anlaysis. Point 1: Non-important as it was just A FoS Point 2: I cant even count how many PbP analysis had been on Day1. Interesting you pick apart each of my posts the same way I did for Kurumi and then claim I am scum for that. Point 3: The strategy of voting a person likely to be mod-killed was something I proposed in Surpirsingly normal mini mafia in case the town didnt reach a consensus well and it worked out decently there. It is the same logic I applied there. Point 4: I voted for Kurumi since he posts seem to focus on derailing town discussion and not because his posts were bad in grammer/hard to follow. Also, there was no content in his spam posting Point 5: I was of the opinion Irish is a reasonable lynch target as well. If you see the post I was referring to, redtooth made a specific argument for Irish and thus, I was replying in context of Irish. I still believed Kurumi was a better lynch target at that point. Point 6: I posted later that I got busy at work and thus will be unable to make the post. It is interesting that someone who claims about lower activity due to real life stuff use the same argument to paint someone else as scum. Point 7: Spreadsheet - If making a spreadsheet showing who voted/FoS/defended whom makes me scummy, I don't know what to respond that with. Also, at this point, I would recommend that if someone is putting a vote on someone (be it me or someone else), please make a case or argument as to why you are voting for that person. Despite me being wrong or right, I have always posted as to why I voted for someone unlike a lot of people who either made bandwagon votes or voted w/o posting any explanation at all. In any case, quite a few people are missing from thread completely today and I would like to hear their opinion/take on the discussion. Them being: VarpuliS, Kenpachi, jaminz, Conversion, and sinani. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 11 2011 22:37 sandroba wrote: Easy there forumite. There's a chance orgolove is scum indeed, but he was one of the first to vote for Amber on his lynch. This gets him +towine points in my eyes. There are much more obvious scum waiting to be lynched. We can save the discussion on orgolove for tomorrow. After kitaman27's post I reread Imprevious analysis on kita. At the very end I found something that made me think. It was regarding jackal's death. Why would mafia kill jackal? Jackal calling me scum was one of the last things he did, along with tunneling cthsazsa. This should help scum (read EternalMisfit) to post bullshit analysis on me. EM had his analysis of me ready (he says so on the analysis itself) just to discredit me as soon as I posted my analysis on Amber[Light]. If he thought I was scum indeed there was no point in waiting until I posted my analysis. Trust me, EM is scum. I had analysis ready on you because I thought you were scum and I wanted to wait for you to post your analysis first since I was hoping that you might drop some clues of being scum in that post. In any case, I won't have much time to be on today since it is my birthday and I have got stuff planned. I might have time to check the thread a few more times during the day but it is not guaranteed. I am going to post a vote on sinani in case I am not back on by the end of the day. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 12 2011 06:52 Forumite wrote: None of them had a really good reason to vote for the other, except "better you than me". EM said "I´ll vote for sinani206 unless I come back before night" sinani206 said "It looks like there is most evidence on EM" Interesting that you say so since I posted my reasons here. First analysis Then, I also clarified when you raised a question here and here: 1 2 Also, you read those posts very well since you questioned me on the initial analysis (to which I replied) and said I was building a case against sinani206 here: Forumite's post Whether you agree with my analysis or not, I believe I have posted my suspicions more coherently than Sinani's agruments against me. I also find it suspicious that you choose to ignore what you clearly read and commented on and summarized my vote as EM said "I´ll vote for sinani206 unless I come back before night" I am not 100% convinced that he's mafia but among the people I suspect, he is the most likely one. I am going to my reads on different players as well since it is quite likely I will end up getting lynched. Also, I won't be on again till much later. Town reads Sandroba - for obvious reasons at this point. Kenpachi - for obvious reasons at this point. DropBear - Townie claim, general posting, and tying himself so closely with myself. At this point, if I flipped red, he is nearly #1 target for next lynch. scum reads Sinani - voting patterns suggest that he is either disinterested townie or scum. It is unlikely that he is disinterested townie based on my above analysis but it is not a 100% read. Ilovejonn - If you leave aside the fact that he raised suspicion on me (which is why he is not being considered at the moment), he has shown rather scummy behavior i.e. suggesting he always gets town, claimed blue read on Amber (would suggest asking him why he thought so), weak FoS on me on Day2 start, trying to gain town cred based on a dead man's read. Conversion and Elmizzit - Textbook examples of posting w/o contributing. They also seem to be good at making themselves not noticeable. In fact, I don't recall anyone having analyzed their posting. Suspicious reads - not necessarily scummy jaminz - Missing from thread in general. Vote 1 was inexplicable since he knew Killer was Blue but still voted for him. Vote 2 was accompanied by contradictory reasons. He votes for Amber early so that is why I don't get a clear scum read but that might have been an attempt to bus Amber. redtooth - sudden decline in activity. Lot of people have been wrong in their votes (hell, I am a perfect example for it) but very few have shown such a sudden decline in activity. orgolove - He never explained why he switched his vote from Redtooth->Chaoser->Kurumi on Day1. His Day2 vote was on Amber which I why I am hesistant on this as a scum read. Null Reads Kitaman VarpuliS Impervious - mostly due to lack of sufficient posts to analyze Mig I am confused on my reads about Forumite, AirBladeOrange, Cthsasza, and Chaos13 but it is mostly a combination of mixed signals and gut feelings so I am not posting them here. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
 GG Kita - You were the one hardest to read as scum (esp. your bus against ilj on the last day). I was sure of Ilovejonn being scum but undecided between you and elmizzit for the second scum while following the thread.. I am not sure how Ilovejonn survived so many days. He was always a lynch target contender since the day I was lynched. But every-time, he just slipped by. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Rising_Phoenix / kevconsim / Impervious - Miller Not that it will make any difference, but since I am pedantic, didn't he flip townie? | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
. Though, at the least, I was able to make a good case against sinani before dying. | ||
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