On May 08 2011 21:24 sandroba wrote:
Alright, before you read this analysis, I would like you to go to the search function and check all the posts Amber[Light] has made so far. You will notice a common theme. He never takes a stance on anything!
I would like everybody to search my posts because there has been a common trend... no one has been reading them.
I actually explained why I voted for Kurumi. Most players didn't even bother to post or posted some garbage. Why is the town allowing Sandroba and Chaoser to push something that isn't true about me?
On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:
I'm pretty sure we should save the day vig ability to find the GF or a roleblocker. I was entering the game assuming that the day vig was the role block counter anyway.
I don't know if I want to bite on your analysis of Chaoser Redtooth, but I'm a bit weary of someone that comes in swinging on the first day with this much information about a certain player. Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis.
For this reason I want to see how well your analysis has been leading us.
If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches.
If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking.
Day 1 lynches are without a doubt the toughest to call, but I am going to vote for Kurumi tonight. I feel like he's more of a solid lynch candidate and his flip will give us more information about Irish punk.
Also don't let the numbers dictate who is scum and who is pro town. I would like to remind the younger players that some of us have jobs and sleep at normal times. I play TL mafia from 5:30 - 11:30 my time and I have to catch up from a lot of pages of content/spam, even when I can read while at work. My posting habits have not changed during this game. If you didn't notice my posts, you have easy access to them via my profile. My analysis compounds over the days and I will be focusing on certain players once more information is obtained.
I don't know if I should make this post even more clear, but I stated that depending on the flip the town needs to do something about the mislynch. Chaoser needs to work on his analysis, and the people who pushed for his lynch are probably a good start. Chaoser has not improved on his analysis of players. He's done the same thing from Day 1 that he did to Kurumi, but now that someone's fighting back he's just pushing tirelessly.
Here's some other times I "never took a stance:"
1. Chaoser posted statements about my mafia history that were obviously poorly researched and terribly put together. I corrected his analysis since it was incredibly wrong. I think someone else [or maybe chaoser] asked me to post why I voted for Kurumi. I [for the 2nd time] posted my reasoning. It wasn't that I suspected Kurumi. It's that I suspected you, Chaoser. I was right to make the move I made. There was no way the town was going to swap votes from Kurumi to Chaoser, and Redtooth even said that a lynching campaign against you would be wasted. This town seems to forget things that happen a day prior.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 07 2011 07:48 Amber[LighT] wrote:If you want to read about me then read the below quote. If not hit scroll down to the next time you see the dotted lines for how I ended up voting for Kurumi. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Show nested quote +On May 07 2011 02:38 chaoser wrote:Who died and made you the king... Some of those points leave no wiggle room. "No more than 4 quotes"? "All new arguments can't be linked to old arguments"? Mistakes on one part of the assessment of a player doesn't mean the rest of it isn't true. Let's instead view these as "Guidelines" and not "Hard Rule" a la Pirates of the Caribbean. To restrict people so much is damaging, especially considering the subjective nature of arguments and getting people to agree with them. That being said, can you give your thoughts on who you think is scum? You haven't been really doing that at all. Town's been doing fine so far. It's not like making a mistake day 1 mean town is fucked. We have a good atmosphere and people are taking stances and making arguments. That's better than almost all the town's I've been in where day 1 was spent discussing whether we should lynch inactives or not and then lynching an inactive player. This is definitely NOT the worst game you've ever played in. Hyperbolic statements don't help. I ain't going to write "I, chaoser, blah blah blah". I will however, proposition this: Amber[Light] has been playing lurker-ish I'll come back to the Irish issue once he's posted and responded to our questions to him. Anyway onto Amber. Amber is a vet player, and he generally posts a lot. Not just posts a lot, he also usually very active in calling people out and making FoS's on people he thinks is scummy. Except this game he hasn't. Most of his posts have been either asking or answer questions; in fact, out of his 5 total (game relevant) posts in this thread, he's pretty much only asked and answered questions in 3 of them. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=22#426http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=22#427http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=22#439In the two posts where he actually tries to take a stance on someone (In this case Kurumi), he pretty much says the reason he's voting for kurumi is because he wants information. He never outright says that he's suspicous of kurumi, just that: Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis. and before, he questions where the Kurumi flip will lead: Back to you Airblade... My question is do you think creating a chaoser vs/with kurumi vision is going to get us somewhere? Clearly he doesn't really support the Kurumi lynch but when questioned on if he actually believes the vote though, he responds to redtooth with: He's using a lot of diversion tactics and getting really defensive to the point where he was analyzing players that were either targeting him or easy pins for inactivity. It seems like it's more pseudo-analysis than actual content. You know, posting just to post. Which seems like a throw-away reason. For that, I ask that Amber start to post more. His excuse that he's at work and so he can't do much is nulled by the fact that he generally posts a lot anyway as can be seen in insane 1, and insane 2. He hasn't contributed much to the discussion even though he's clearly caught up to speed and has been reading the thread. This same sentiment is also applied to GGQ. He gives the advice to DropBear: There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote You need to better explain your reasoning for voting Kurumi (Pretty much that he was acting like serejai aka trolling and so he's probably scum) and why you're not posting as much For the record I lurked in Insane 2, and I resent signing up for that game altogether because of the absolute bullshit that went on the entire game. I never really play the same style in these games anyway. Would you rather me Bill Murray this thread up with bullshit? I can definitely find some spare time to do that. Since you wanted to bring up Insane 1 I would definitely like to chat about that game. Though I can't really tell if I was active or lurking [I think at this point I was much more active in games] throughout Insane 1, I remember my strategy for that game. I wanted to be killed. I was given a really cool role that required me to die, the Zombie role. It took me 5 days to die before I could activate my ability, and to my surprise I managed to get a mafia hook line and sinker. See Insane 1 Day 5 post below: + Show Spoiler +On November 10 2010 08:46 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Day 5![[image loading]](http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/1953/1268040328107.gif) Last night would be a night of mixed feelings. Amber[LighT] was making his way towards the late night grocery store when a crazed gunman lept up from behind him and shot him dead in the back. Amber[LighT] died a swift death. Infinitestory was in distress. He had a feeling mafia would be coming, so he called in the aid of Veldril. Veldril soon discovered a case of Murrayitis in infinitestory's body, which resulted in him immediately dropping all other activities and started to heal infinitestory. Suddenly, a man opened the door. "I already took care of your other buddy", he smiled. Neither Infinitestory or Veldril was quick enough to respond to the hail of bullets. Kitaman27 was watching on the rooftops of a suspect. He saw the suspect walking out, then doing something he had never seen anyone do before. He looked right at him. Two seconds later, a bullet came kitaman27's way, and he would never watch again. Ace was returning home after a successful night of infecting people when he saw a man he had seen before. "You took out our busdriver." "Yes, I did." Ace quickly went for his gun, but couldn't find it. The man had already grabbed his gun, and pointed it at Ace. "May you never spread this foul plague again.", were the last words as the man faded into obscurity. Amber[LighT] was pissed, real pissed. He never was a fan of dying and decided he didn't want to start now, so he crawled out of his grave and went for brainsthe person he thought had killed him. He entered RebirthOfLegend's house and celebrated his victory before once more returning to eternal darkness. Amber[LighT] the Zombie is now dead. Show nested quote +You are the Zombie! Though you are just a normal townie, death pisses you off in unusual ways. Every day, you may PM me the name of one player. Should you die that day or night, you will crawl out of your grave and hit that player. You may choose not to PM me a name in which case the last person you PMed will still be hit should you die. You may also leave a death message of no more than 100 characters. infinitestory the ADD Detective is now dead. Show nested quote +You are the ADD Detective! Once per night, oh wait is that a squirrel? You randomly walk into houses to ask people questions about their alignment. You don't get to choose who since you act on impulse, which makes one question your job choice to begin with. Veldril the Plague Doctor is now dead. Show nested quote +You are the Plague Doctor. During the night you can protect someone. If you protect someone they are cured of Murrayitis (if they have it), and a possible hit is prevented. However, if mafia hits the person you are protecting and they have Murrayitis, you both are killed because you are too busy to defend yourself. On the first night, you won't be able to protect anyone as you're just finishing the cure to Murrayitis. Note that if you use night actions when you are infected, the people you come into contact with will get Murrayitis too. Later added: If you protect someone and they have murrayitis and also get hit, both you and the person you protect die.kitaman27 the Watcher (-_-) is now dead. Show nested quote +You are the watcher! Every day, you may PM me the naem of one player. You will be informed if that player leaves his house and what kind of action he performed. RebirthOfLegend the Mafia Roleblocker is now dead. Show nested quote +You are the Mafia Roleblocker! Once per night, you may decide to roleblock one of the townies. Ace the Mafia Lab Rat is now dead. Show nested quote +You are the Lab Rat! You can infect a person with Murrayitis once per night. Any day or night actions by infected players will cause the players they target to be infected as well (excluding lynch votes). If no one has Murrayitis at any point after night 2, you die. Hello, this is the news today with Jasmine Insane, replacing Wacko Zacko due to a bad case of murrayitis. A man was seen preventing someone from entering a house. According to our sources, this man was later shot. More plague bearers have died today, and to the best of our knowledge, only three remain. Should the deadly plague ever reach a majority, insanity save us all. And now for Radio Loony with your host Glasse! The story of the day being his supposed third party. Unfortunately, the radio has gone quiet as of late due to his identity being revealed. It is now Day 5! You have 48 hours to vote. Remember that a double lynch is active, so you have to vote twice. Should everyone have voted earlier, I will close the votes earlier. Was I lucky? Maybe. Oh wait no I wasn't. On November 15 2010 01:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Awards!
Sniper award for suspecting most mafia members
This award goes to Amber[LighT]. The zombie that first targetted RebirthOfLegend on night 3. On night 5, he first targetted Ace, then switched to L, and finally settled on RebirthOfLegend again. Should he have had 3KP on night 5, 3 mafia would’ve been dead. Sick scumhunting skills.
. Okay okay so now that I've managed to get your attention I'm sure everyones next question is "well that's great and all but you've skipped the more important Insane mafia 2 where you lurked and were mafia. How does that make you any less scummy since you're apparently doing similar tactics?" First off read that thread. I took lurking to a new level in that game. You want to talk about sliding through the cracks for DAYS without being killed by mods, let alone the town, I'll say that was not one of my best games. But Chaoser, master detective, only investigated a couple of games. I was mafia once before in a smaller game, Mini Mafia 7. I think only Jackal and Chaoser were in that game with me, but if you want to read that thread I was pretty active and worked really hard to get my team a win in just a couple of days. They both should know that too. We had a flawless victory. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Why did I end up voting for Kurumi?The majority was hung up over this Irish vs. Kurumi thing. We had a number of other "suspects" that were accumulating small numbers of votes. This poses a VERY dangerous situation where we have to deal with the votes thinned out between large numbers of suspects. That means we enter scenarios where 1-2 votes can actually make a difference. When it came down to it Kurumi was leading in votes and creating a bandwagon at the last minute almost always end up in a disappointing lynch, so lets go with the person the town believes is not going to be beneficial to us later for analysis. How often do we manage to lynch a mafia on the first day? Chaoser, you've been in almost as many games as me [since the old days in like 08/09 and how often have you seen that happen? Don't get hung up on the idea that "oh my god these people voted for Kurumi and he flipped green FoS ON ALL OF THEM!!!!!!!!1111one" The town has been given so much information. We know what players stuck to their guns, what players switched, as well as what players felt threatened by others during the day. Redtooth, since the beginning of the game I've really taken a lot of your analysis seriously and I've had similar views throughout the whole game up to this point. I however don't think imposing rules is going to help us. The town is going to crumble. You want to add red tape to the game to force analysis? The quality is going to decrease significantly. I've never seen this done in a game, and I really don't understand why you're coming to the conclusion that we're playing so miserably. I think we're playing pretty good. We had some good Day 1 discussion and we had a lot of players throwing out some great analysis. We didn't sit around all day talking about roles. This is one of the more impressive towns in any game of TL mafia I've played, especially with so many newbies. I have to agree with another post I found a bit amusing... [if you can't tell I'm still on page 42 so I'm catching up]. On May 06 2011 23:18 sandroba wrote:
The list argument is pretty dumb. If I were mafia I would NEVER want to see kurumi dead. He was basically doing mafia's job for them. He was spaming the thread, creating a lot of confusion and posting a lot of nonsense. There is no way in hell you could know for sure kurumi was town unless you were mafia. My suspicions are on the people who came to his defensess for no reason, because he was "obvtown". Seriously, you guys must be on a whole other level, because calling kurumi obvtown is like calling a rape a beautiful act between two people in love. Give me a break. I mean I think sandroba is pretty spot on with this post. If I were mafia I would have done whatever I could have to keep him around. His play was textbook scummy. Him and Irish are mimicking each other and they have a scent of scum on them. Does this make either of them mafia? No. Does this mean that we shouldn't pursue them? No. For Day 1 the most important thing was to discover who would want to keep him around and what benefits the town and mafia would have by keeping him alive. If he was left alive he would have been a target for days. This happens all the time. Ask L about being pinned down. Ace did it to him in like every game for a year straight and L would always be pro-town in the end. Irish or Chaoser should be checked tonight if the detective didn't already get this memo. Once day hits I'm going to post a bit more on the Kurumi aftermath. I just want everyone to be aware that we should not be in panic mode at this point. Mafia wants us to be fighting, trust me it's so easy when mafia can just sit back and relax while the town self-destructs. That lynch is going to compound over the next few days. Once again I apologize for the novel post. I'm still 3-4 pages behind so I will be posting more if I find some good posts. I'm also openly against the Redtooth plan, if that's still being discussed.
I post yet again as to why I voted for Kurumi. Chaoser's "analysis" has been wrong and misleading the entire game. He has not once actually read my posts. Instead he's cherry picking my posts for things.
2. I helped the town by giving them the most important posts of the players from the night 1 kills. Nobody touched them. Do I need to do all the work here? And before someone says it, I'm going to do the analysis myself now. I was hoping this bs against me would just blow over once I legitimized my case as well as debunk most of Chaosers arguments against me, but no one seems to be reading these posts.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 08 2011 00:50 Amber[LighT] wrote:Some important posts to look at: Jackal58: + Show Spoiler +On May 07 2011 08:15 Jackal58 wrote:
Alright then. A little free time.
Chaoser/Redtooth - 1 of them is scum. Would be worth a lynch of Chaoser and if he does flip green vig Redtooth. I'm leaning more towards Chaoser being the scummy one.
sandroba - scum
GGQ - scum
Cthsazsa - scum
Eternalmisfit - scum
Chaos 13/ Irish Punk 13 - Leaning much more towards Irish. He's a very active player. Now absent.
That's the way I see it at the moment.
Sorry if I didn't submit the correct form. I couldn't find a "Tunneling Request" form
On May 07 2011 08:17 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2011 08:08 Kenpachi wrote:
Imo, veterans are justified in voting Kurumi. Because of what Amber just posted.
Others, not so much. I'm not a fan of lynching people because they appear wierd or different or stupid. But I can understand it. I do guarantee you that at least 4 on his lynch were scum. Hell maybe more. On May 07 2011 06:55 Jackal58 wrote:
First chance I've had to read this since my post this morning. I got as far as Redtooths requirements for FoSing somebody.
Sorry dude. I'm not filling out a form letter to satisfy your ego. Don't like it. Lynch me.
I may not be able to go through all of this before some time on Sunday. I'll be reading but I probably won't have much heart to put into it for the next day or so. My dad is dying and my thoughts and duties are with him and my family atm.
Don't replace me Node. This is my distraction from the real world. On May 06 2011 23:31 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 23:18 sandroba wrote:
The list argument is pretty dumb. If I were mafia I would NEVER want to see kurumi dead. He was basically doing mafia's job for them. He was spaming the thread, creating a lot of confusion and posting a lot of nonsense. There is no way in hell you could know for sure kurumi was town unless you were mafia. My suspicions are on the people who came to his defensess for no reason, because he was "obvtown". Seriously, you guys must be on a whole other level, because calling kurumi obvtown is like calling a rape a beautiful act between two people in love. Give me a break. But as town you wanted him dead? But if you were scum you would never want him dead? But as town you did? But as scum you wouldn't? So since you voted for him you're obviously town right? Because obvscum would want him alive? But you have no problems with voting for obvtown? It's not rape. It's surprise sex. Enjoy it scummy. On May 06 2011 00:50 Jackal58 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 00:30 chaoser wrote:@redtoothExcept I have focused on him? There's a certain thing called reading the air. I've already posted my thoughts on Irish, barely anyone responded to it and everyone seems to find it better to lynch Kurumi. I already consider both of them to be scum based upon behavior (Kurumi says to stop talking about me and 100% supports a lynch of Irish, AO accuses Kurumi, Irish comes in and chainsaw defends Kurumi with AO, Kurumi IMMEDIATELY switches votes onto AO) In this situation, whether we vote Irish or Kurumi, doesn't matter since 1) Both of them are acting scummy 2) Both lynches will be telling of the other person's alignment. The reason I push Irish's lynch is because I am more confident about his lynch over Kurumi's (70% sure vs 60% sure). Go reread KillerSOS' posts. People think he is scummy because of his line "Why would I want to be lynched, I don't want to die." Go reread his posts and decide if he's just a simple newbie or red. Either way, we can discuss his lynch tomorrow, after the night. About Irish. At the end of the day, whether you think he is mafia or not, he hasn't come back yet to defend himself at all. He has yet to explain his "Kurumi has made excellent analysis statements" and he has yet to explain his quick sudden suspicions onto AO. He literally popped in, said almost nothing, and then hasn't posted since. You're damn straight I find that scummy as fuck. I quote this line way too much but Ace, when he was helping coach Team Melee said: Show nested quote +Why would you side with someone that isn't even defending himself?
On January 10 2011 11:52 Ace wrote:
Sometimes it's just better to think of a simple answer. You have no idea what the Mafia know and don't know their motives. Hence it's just a simple decision on who is more believable here. About Kurumi. Kurumi is tied to Irish and you can see in his crazy convoluted posting that he's still trying to push the lynch off Irish. Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 21:55 Kurumi wrote:
It flipped so wrong,but so good after all.
My mistakes and weird play created a bandwagon which is such an easy way for scum to push lynch. That's ok. About my hyperactive posting:
I was really pumped out for my first Mafia game on TL,don't get me wrong but I wanted to flip out as best as I could,horribly failed though.
The biggest concern now is that I generated some kind of defence for Irish_Punk13 which was not my intention,also I got connected with him.
Even if You lynch Irish and he flips out Mafia I am DEAD.
If You lynch me,I am DEAD.
Who else can You lynch?
Well,entire society is now focused on me,Irish,AO.
It is very easy to make another same analysis post about how my or those two posting was,just take a note that does not certainly mean someone wants to help You,but just to show that Mafia cares to lynch someone who isn't them.
My derail wasted a lot of Your time and I am sorry for that,I might meant it,but I did not think that it would turn out to be discussion number 1.
Bandwagon is ready Scum,buy Your tickets,I am already cursing at You. No where in that post does he address the Irish issue. He doesn't explicitly defend him but he does insinuate that both of them are town. He passes off all the conversation on them as "scum forming an easy bandwagon". He states: Show nested quote +I tried making myself easy Day 2 lynch to try to reveal Scum,but I pushed it too hard,thus it is highly likely I will die this Day 1. but previous to this stated: Show nested quote +My mistakes and weird play created a bandwagon which is such an easy way for scum to push lynch. So did he PLAN to act as an easy target to draw mafia out to band wagon him or was it just mistakes? He's wishy-washy here. Either state that your posting was planned all along or that your posting was "mistakes", stick to a statement, not both. Could be all that. Could be just overwhelmed noobs. If Irish is scum he'll out himself. Cthsazsa already has. His response to my poke was over the top and quite extended. His post I poked him about was a pure scum agenda. His response was pure scum response. He constantly evades the issue I poked him on and shifts it to a not 'knowing the definitions of lurker/inactive" That's not the item in his post I FoSed him on and I told him that. Yet he still tries to deflect back to that issue. He's scum. I am voting for him and urge you all to do the same. I may not be back before day is over. I have to travel to Dallas. So I make my vote now. Aidnai: + Show Spoiler +On May 07 2011 03:30 aidnai wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2011 02:38 chaoser wrote:... I ain't going to write "I, chaoser, blah blah blah". I will however, proposition this: Amber[Light] has been playing lurker-ish I'll come back to the Irish issue once he's posted and responded to our questions to him. Anyway onto Amber. Amber is a vet player, and he generally posts a lot. Not just posts a lot, he also usually very active in calling people out and making FoS's on people he thinks is scummy. Except this game he hasn't. Most of his posts have been either asking or answer questions; in fact, out of his 5 total (game relevant) posts in this thread, he's pretty much only asked and answered questions in 3 of them. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=22#426http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=22#427http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=22#439In the two posts where he actually tries to take a stance on someone (In this case Kurumi), he pretty much says the reason he's voting for kurumi is because he wants information. He never outright says that he's suspicous of kurumi, just that: Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis. and before, he questions where the Kurumi flip will lead: Back to you Airblade... My question is do you think creating a chaoser vs/with kurumi vision is going to get us somewhere? Clearly he doesn't really support the Kurumi lynch but when questioned on if he actually believes the vote though, he responds to redtooth with: He's using a lot of diversion tactics and getting really defensive to the point where he was analyzing players that were either targeting him or easy pins for inactivity. It seems like it's more pseudo-analysis than actual content. You know, posting just to post. Which seems like a throw-away reason. For that, I ask that Amber start to post more. His excuse that he's at work and so he can't do much is nulled by the fact that he generally posts a lot anyway as can be seen in insane 1, and insane 2. He hasn't contributed much to the discussion even though he's clearly caught up to speed and has been reading the thread. This same sentiment is also applied to GGQ. He gives the advice to DropBear: There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote You need to better explain your reasoning for voting Kurumi (Pretty much that he was acting like serejai aka trolling and so he's probably scum) and why you're not posting as much FoS? Vote? might we expect a fullblown analysis with an accusation soon? I must say I look forward to it if you do it. Amber is certainly a scummy player and I plan to push his lynch today, but I can't tell if you're serious about him from this post. On May 07 2011 02:51 aidnai wrote:
dropbear, think how much better the thread would be to read if people went by redtooth's advice. It is protown. Please don't fight it.
The problem with the thread yesterday was that everyone was posting analysis, and (almost) all of it was half-assed and not even worth responding to. Therefore nobody was responding, so none of the cases gained traction (except kurumi t.t). In this situation, scum is not pressured, scum can make weak arguments, scum can wagon freely, scum can lurk without being punished.
If everyone is held to high standards, how are the scum going to contribute? if they try to do real analysis, it's either fake (therefore usually weak as well) or a bus.
BTW, you are one of the shining examples in the thread so far, i doubt redtooth had you in mind when he wrote this stuff. And he answered your questions already, read his posts again.
redtooth's initiative is a pro-town take over of the thread, get on board all townies.
On May 06 2011 08:44 aidnai wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 08:15 chaoser wrote:
Also, where's Irish? He hasn't posted anything at all. i know, right? I'm going out for the evening, and since Irish hasn't posted yet, I will not remove my vote. Of the three vote leaders, I think Irish is most likely to be scum, followed by cthsazsa, followed by kurumi. See you guys later. On May 06 2011 07:49 aidnai wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 12:01 Cthsazsa wrote:Hmm, this is my rather short analysis on Conversion, since he won't make one of his own. On May 04 2011 22:11 Conversion wrote:
I played in two games, BrownBear's mafia game (if you could even call that playing) where I was town and DocH's newbie mafia where I was mafia. Still pretty bad at this game.
To be honest I really don't have any opinions on anyone atm. I still think there's too many lurkers. The only playstyle I'm somewhat familiar with is Phoenix's since we were scumbuddies in newbie mafia, but he's not posting. Come out, phoenix! Too many lurkers? That's funny, because you've only posted three times since the game started. You refuse to form, create, and state your own analysis. Instead, you're lurking in the shadows watching everyone quarl. Kind of hypocritical, is it not? On May 05 2011 11:15 Conversion wrote:
jeez jackal and the chtzihfia whatever dude bloated the page count up.
look jackal tunnels people. stop bitching about him tunneling if you don't know his playstyle. it makes you seem really scummy when you spam up the thread with silly ego arguments. And you know Jackal's playstyle? Because in your last post you claim to only be somewhat familiar with Pheonix's. You also say you're still bad at this game. So you must be a newbie, no? If you've played 2 games and you're still a noob, how do you expect me to know how Jackal's playstyle is if this is the first time I've played mafia? And why are you so quick to come to his defense? This was a pretty good post cthsazsa, you should do more like this. I'd like to hear more opinions on cthsazsa from kita and chaoser. So far, I agree with jackal's original reasons for pressuring, but i kind of have a null read on cthsazsa's response. The fact that he's done very little in the thread other than one-liner spam defense + a brief spat with conversion is a big strike against. But I do like his post on conversion...
I'll just state this right now, I will be very surprised if kurumi does in fact flip red, and I wish sheeping townies would move their votes. There is no reason for a scum to attract attention the way that kurumi has been doing. GGQ's point about serejai is moot. There are key differences between these cases -- serejai was a hardcore lurker, kurumi is quite active; serejai was (and is) a big troll and is also demonstrably quite clever as seen by his posts elsewhere on the site, kurumi that I know of has no history on this site to make a similar conclusion; kurumi has been interacting with the thread, addressing current issues etc, serejai only did this on perhaps one occasion. There is also the language issue that makes kurumi's posts seem stranger than they actually are. And yes kurumi has made some troll posts, but that can be explained by frustration. Serejai made troll posts just because. On May 06 2011 05:59 aidnai wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 05:48 Kenpachi wrote:wtf is going on guys i very konfuzed.. Kurumi is bad holy shit Lets point at someone else. On May 06 2011 05:40 redtooth wrote:On May 06 2011 04:29 aidnai wrote:On May 06 2011 03:08 Forumite wrote:
For trying too hard to defend Irish.
##Unote: Kurumi
##Vote: redtooth
(I´m posting in the other thread too, just wanted to be polite and inform people of the voting here too, since it´s easier to see updates in the main thread) Imo, it's too early to lynch a vet. Your point is absolutely valid however, and I would like discussion of this to continue tomorrow, and if we are able to flip irish today it will be that much more meaningful. Please consider changing your vote. Never too early, whether its me or Chaoser. QFT There is room for differences of opinion, but I would 100% rather lynch someone useless (kenpachi, takuna, lyter, etc) day 1 as opposed to a vet. On May 06 2011 04:29 aidnai wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 21:20 VarpuliS wrote:
I'm on the fence between lynching Irish_Punk13 and Kurumi. At this point it seems to me that Irish is only scum if Kurumi is too. People are pushing a lynch on Irish because of the information he'll provide when he flips, but I think that we can get all of that information from a lynch on Kurumi.
Situation A: Kurumi flips scum, it is very likely that Irish is as well. We lynch Irish the next day, and we get our information, just a day later.
Situation B: Kurumi flips town. Irish is probably town, we move on. The only real scumtell from Irish is noting Kurumi's "great posts" which don't exist. If Kurumi is town, then Irish is just an idiot.
I'm posting from my phone, classes start soon and I probably won't have time to check the thread again until the afternoon. First, to address your line of thinking: lynching for information is a bad idea, that is not why we are lynching either player. Your situations and hypothetical ideas are in fact wrong, if we lynch either player, we will not get any reliable information for the next lynch. We get at most a piece of evidence that we'll be able to factor into a decision. Kurumi is probably town, based on two things: - thread response to pressure on him (easy bandwagon) - His posts are extremely un-'guarded'. Meaning, it seems clear that the last thing on his mind is trying his hardest to look like a town, which is actually the first thing on the mind of a scum. In this sense, yes, it is true that the most 'obvious' scum are often bad townies. Irish_punk on the other hand: - is ignored as a bandwagon target - his posts (what few there are) are in fact guarded, and now he's too scared to show his face around here. Please consider switching your vote.
Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 21:47 redtooth wrote:
@Kitaman - Well you can't blame me for RL obligations (I'll be less active during evening today as well). Anyways, it's not as much a scumhunting list as it is a townhunting list. At the top is Chaoser for all of the above information. Then comes KillerSOS because he honestly is making every noobscum action in the book without the orgy of information found on the others.
Kurumi, Irish, and AO are all looking extremely noobtown to me. Every argument used against them could be used to argue that they're noobtown. As I consider myself a player who could stand some improvement, I'm interested in seeing you differentiate killerSOS from kurumi and AO. I currently am reading AO Kurumi and Killer all as noobtownies, AO less noob than the others.
Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 22:13 KillerSOS wrote:
I'm curious as to what a noobscum mistake I made was. I must learn something productive today! (other than still working on my paper...) This seems like an extremely weird question to ask, but i'm interested in the answer to this as well. :/
Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 00:09 chaos13 wrote:
The style of game you guys play here is way beyond what I'm used to on UG, so I apologize for my relative lack of usefulness while I try to figure things out.
Kurumi has not done anything to redeem himself in my eyes. His posts have remained useless and confusing. I don't see what a townie would have to gain by lining themselves up for a lynch, so I think that is just his defense for being caught as scum, trying to make us afraid to lynch him so we aren't labeled as scum. If he flips red, then we can take a closer look at the people who are connected to him, such as Irish_Punk. He is standing out to me more than any other player so far. I find it suspicious that all you have done so far is defend irish and attack kurumi. Kurumi is in fact an easy target, so i can hardly blame anyone for wagoning him, but if that is the ONLY thing you have done, it looks fishy. FOS chaos13.
Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 02:21 DropBear wrote:
...
There are a LOT of people who are hiding.
Beneather
Mig
Amber[Light]
Kenpachi
GGQ
Rising_Phoenix
Takuna
Lyter
all need to talk more. The discussion is being completely dominated by the same few players.
My vote remains on Beneather.
added in Lyter for you. Would also like to add conversion to this list. Players like beneather and amber have been around long enough that I doubt they will be easily vote-pressured into appearing. I hope you'll consider using your vote elsewhere.
Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 03:00 Kurumi wrote:
Well about Chaoser as scum,they started throwing that when he posted a newbie guide.
I thought it is really dumb to say he is scum based on doing that and to spice things up,it was just the start.
Still I don't understand Sandroba calling out for help without doing any real contribution,why he goes after Chaoser (and the SC2 forums posting style) and this is mainly what makes me wonder about him. Also I think he changes his vote on me because he thinks it will be easier to lynch me. When I read sandroba asking chaoser for help, I understood that to mean that Sandroba looks up to chaoser. Asking for chaoser's opinion can help sandroba validate his own opinion about conversion and at the same time make a new opinion--about chaoser! I can understand this because I think and behave the same way in thread. When Chaoser didn't really buy the analysis, sandroba dropped it for a while, imo because he respects chaoser's opinion a lot. But he still brought it up later looking for more support, showing that he actually meant what he said in the first place. All of this is consistent from my point of view with sandroba being a greenie.
Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 03:08 Forumite wrote:
For trying too hard to defend Irish.
##Unote: Kurumi
##Vote: redtooth
(I´m posting in the other thread too, just wanted to be polite and inform people of the voting here too, since it´s easier to see updates in the main thread) Imo, it's too early to lynch a vet. Your point is absolutely valid however, and I would like discussion of this to continue tomorrow, and if we are able to flip irish today it will be that much more meaningful. Please consider changing your vote.
On May 06 2011 03:38 aidnai wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:...
@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS) Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening. - Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
- Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
- Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.
Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed. On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser. - Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
- Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
- Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.
This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this. This made me late for work zzz. I think Lyter, Conversion, Amber, and rising_phoenix are all good lynch targets that haven't gotten much discussion yet. (For the record though, amber has looked scummy to me pretty much every time I've played with him-_-.) Do you really not find anyone at all scummy or at least scummier than chaoser? Also it seems you misunderstood something about PMs -- the scum team can most definitely PM each other. The single most scummy thing that irish_punk has done is go AFK exactly when the heat was turned on. This is even worse for him since the heat was, as you have pointed out, not a strong case at all. I cannot discount this possibility because it is exactly how I dodged a lynch once upon a time. Show nested quote +Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded. Your maths game is biased by the way, sorry i didn't play along -_- Here's my own version: -is it more likely that a noob townie would skip the thread after facing a weak accusation, or a noob scum? In my experience, the noob is much more likely to respond with defense and increased activity. But a noob scum would have a team to advise that a better course of action is to lay low and let the thread move on. I believe that irish_punk is active lurking right now. His excuse for not posting was checking his other game, which means he's still online, still able to read this thread, he just doesn't want to post here. If he was a noob town, I seriously doubt he could resist the urge to post some response to this kind of pressure. Last -- I do not understand why you consider him obviously town. You also allude to him giving an 'abundance of information' and not being 'guarded'. Having read his (11) posts, this description does not seem apt, please state your evidence. KillerSOS: **Not much on him. His posts weren't as valuable as the other two imo. + Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 14:22 KillerSOS wrote:
I didn't have a solid target, but you can look back and see that I said he was town.
anyways, headed to bed. On May 06 2011 03:43 KillerSOS wrote:
That table does bring some interesting things into easier view.
First and foremost is that redtooth is defending both Irish and Kurumi, two of the most scummy looking players at the moment.
Honestly defending players is worse than attacking at this early stage, unless you are over the top with it.
On May 05 2011 13:02 KillerSOS wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 12:58 jaminz wrote:On May 05 2011 12:47 KillerSOS wrote:
As much as I hate to join on the bandwagon, a vote for Cthsazsa seems to be a reasonable decision. Yet another post with no information/analysis. Why are you jumping onto the Cthsazsa bandwagon? Because the people who have provided analysis on his posts seem to be the most correct? Cthsazsa posts alot like me... short and numerous. For some reason I feel as though it might be the incorrect method of play, but it is enjoyable to say the least.
3. I was asked by Sandroba, the person who's also accusing me, what I thought about Redtooth's situation. I'm assuming this meant his playstyle, his emotional posts, and his "town plan" to increase government beauracracy by 20% for all players. I stated 2 things here. I would never vote to lynch Redtooth (ie I support him) and I do not like his townie plan (because it's a terrible plan).
+ Show Spoiler +On May 08 2011 01:03 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 00:40 sandroba wrote:
Amber, what's your opinion on the redtooth situation? His analysis mirrors mine in most cases. I would trust him as a town leader more than Chaoser, and I'll stand by that. Though I will say I don't agree with his posting plan. The idea is genuinely good with intention, but it will choke the town over the next few days. I can't stand by that plan. We share the same frustrations too. As I'm reading over his most recent posts he's also pretty upset with Chaoser and if I'm not reading into his posts too seriously he is suspecting him more than me. I don't know if Chaoser is just trolling vets or is just trying to get us more riled up but it's causing more and more people to consider him as a lynch target. I think this post has a lot of weight to it: Show nested quote +On May 07 2011 04:33 redtooth wrote:On May 07 2011 04:26 chaoser wrote:
You guys do realize that talking about whether we should follow redtooth's strict ass guidelines just allows for scum to seem like they're contributing but not really right? I appreciate the sentiment redtooth but all it does is let people post a whole lot of nothing. That's suspicious yo. Analyzing any alignment right now is a waste of breathe. If anything, it gives scum an opportunity to manipulate lynches to make innocents look scummy. For example: Redtooth: Node is scummy! I'm going to lynch him asap! Node: Stfu no I'm not! Redtooth has been killed. He flipped green.Town: Kill Node! He had the most reason to kill redtooth! WIFOM ensues, followed shortly by chaos then scumwin.There is literally nothing that's needs to happen tonight that we can't do tomorrow morning with more information. That is why I'm not posting an argument against you right now because if I die or if you die then it is a waste of my breath. Alternatively, we can debate standards to set for town posting that will benefit us when day does come around so that town can hit the ground running. Though it makes sense I think strategically his posts would have been irrelevent unless mafia chose to take out Redtooth. It would have made him look incredibly scummy. Think about it from another perspective. If you were mafia and you saw Redtooth accuse Chaoser and chaoser was red, would you still gun down Redtooth to "confirm" him using the WIFOM argument? I think posts at night are more catch 22 than anything else [damned if you do; damned if you don't].
I don't understand why the town is ignoring the most scummy play so far in the game.
So is this what you guys want? A list of suspicious people? There's only 2 right now that should stand out:
-Chaoser
-Sandroba
One of them is definitely scum. The other is playing a bad townie game or is getting manipulated by the other. Read my 2nd post for more about Sandroba.
|
Read this entire post. You are allowing players to say that because I'm defending myself that I must be scum, but most of the players who voted yesterday for Kurumi wanted him dead because he wasn't defending himself enough. This doesn't make sense. The town was doing great, but you haven't listened to me and I really fear that the wrong players are reading my posts, while the ones who should be reading it are ignoring them.. Chaoser has been misleading the town from the moment this game started. I'm tired of being worried that Chaoser will run this town to the ground.
Sandroba should be todays lynch target. All of a sudden on Day 2 he appears after a day of inactivity. Let's look at some Sandroba highlights from Day 1:
Sandroba questioning Chaoser. What happened here? Didn't have enough to push against him?
+ Show Spoiler +On May 04 2011 22:48 sandroba wrote:Ok, so I've caught up right now and something in particular has caught my attention. Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 18:33 chaoser wrote:On May 04 2011 18:12 Forumite wrote:On May 04 2011 15:09 AirbladeOrange wrote:On May 04 2011 14:09 chaoser wrote:
Ok, so I posted that line just to see how people would respond. You can see that I didn't even post in the actual voting thread and already I think I've got some good reactions. Irish, why such a big response, going so far as to posting a link to another website, even saying that you would dismiss me and "not waste time on trying to convince someone I'm not scum". I didn't even actually vote for you, I posted some bolded words that could have easily been knocked down since there was no analysis behind it, and no logic behind it; it had nothing behind it. Why so serious? Why such a big reaction? Same thing to chaos13.
At the same time, why so much silence on the issue from people who were clearly present? Kitaman? You pop in to say that people shouldn't edit but you don't mention a single thing about Irish, a single thing about me, and a single thing about anything. What up? I think this long of a post is more suspicious than anything irish punk dude said. He does have a few points, people need to make constructive posts, even more so with a 30-player game. Also even this early it´s a good move to call out people on their scum-tells. There's no real such thing as a scum-tell per say. TL doesn't really do the MS "You said good job to medic when he saved someone, you're scum!" kind of deal but there are limitations to what mafia can and can't do. Or at least feel comfortable with doing. If you look at XXXVII, you'll see that mafia found it very hard to make cases against each other and that ended up catching a lot of them. If you look at XXXXVIII, you can see that mafia were decently wishy-washy. By wishy-washy I don't mean they changed their opinions on things, but that they changed them based upon nothing, merely to please the rest of town. In Simple Mafia, Town because Mafia were inactive and allowed town to dominate the discussion. Even so, you'll notice that most of the time it was town arguing against town, using weak arguments and trying to figure out alliances before anyone even flipped. That's bad play since you don't know how mafia will act towards each other. They could bus each other a bit, they could act friendly, or they might not interact at all. The point is that you should focus on a few people and then make judgements about connections AFTER the flip. On day one, conversation generation is the most important thing, even if it IS the 30th game we're discussing about lynching inactives or not. Pressure is also a good conversation generator and I know for a fact that GM's question asking helps too. Mafia wants town to have no direction and I'm sure in this game, where it's filled with mostly newbies, the mafia aren't going to go out of their way to help newbie townies. As such, redtooth get's +townie points in my book. Townies should be sure to ask coaches for help and read over guides conveniently localed here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=215574 That's all fine and all but the thing I find extremelly suspicious about this post is this: Chaoser points out how redtooth post is pro-town and then he proceeds to do exactly what redtooth did. Why are making such a huge effort to appear pro-town chaoser? This post would have exactly the same content without the bolded part. The only thing this part adds is making YOU look more town.
Chaoser does circles around Sandrobas question. Sandroba, your question was posted clear as day:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 05 2011 00:34 sandroba wrote:
I can't really tell if I didn't word it correctly or you purposely missinterpreted my question, so here it goes again. What I find suspicious is not the fact that you are trying to help newbies, which is indeed pro-town, but the fact that you pointed it out in your post. That's why I'm not suspicious of redtooth, but of you.
If your intention was really just helping out newbies you had no reason to say: "Look, helping out newbies is pro town okay?"
What you did was copying someone's behaviour which you felt was pro-town and then made sure point it out.
Sandroba doesn't want to lynch Chaoser. You reem me out for not taking a stance but you don't seem to have the balls to dig further into his analysis. Then you leave us with this:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 05 2011 01:06 sandroba wrote:You keep doing it in all your posts! Either way I don't feel like you are a good day1 lynch, but I'd like your opinion on this wall of nothingness: Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 23:29 Rising_Phoenix wrote:On May 04 2011 22:11 Conversion wrote:
I played in two games, BrownBear's mafia game (if you could even call that playing) where I was town and DocH's newbie mafia where I was mafia. Still pretty bad at this game.
To be honest I really don't have any opinions on anyone atm. I still think there's too many lurkers. The only playstyle I'm somewhat familiar with is Phoenix's since we were scumbuddies in newbie mafia, but he's not posting. Come out, phoenix! Sorry I can't post while I'm asleep >.< Hi buddy! Also what's with all these vets posting huge guides of how to play the game? It's not like we can't read the guides already on this and other sites with useful information. We do need a leader to help lead conversation and we need to be certain that the person isn't mafia. I'm against a "day 1 inactive lynch" Unless we REALLY need to do it. Usually inactives are just disinterested townies, and if we go around lynching random people chances are we'll just hit a townie (simple math says 20% chance of mafia) I also don't see a point in talking about our previous games experience. Really it seems like an easy way to clutter a thread. If you want to see their previous games, go into their post history unless they have a smurf. It seems like we know the people with smurfs so does it really matter? And also isn't it illegal to have two accounts on the site? I feel huge day1 "newbies guides" are kinda useless and suspicious. While we definitely need direction, guides IN THREAD about how to play the game ore mostly filler. Most of what people said have been said are in guides both on this and other sites. I'm not saying it's suspicious but I am saying it's unnecessary and in general a pretty useless post. This post is the scummiest I've seen so far. He shuts down all ideas as useless, states the obvious multiple times and he even feels the need of repeating himself to make his post larger. He closes it in a beautiful whishy-washy fashion.
Chaoser suspects Sandroba as being scummy. Sandroba claims that Chaosers analysis is scummy as hell as well.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 05 2011 01:54 sandroba wrote:
Please explain to me, what's your reason to find me scummy. Your reasoning so far is purely OMGUS. On May 05 2011 01:54 sandroba wrote:
Also, shooting down ideas without sugesting something better IS scummy as hell.
Sandroba is convinced Kurumi is scum:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 05 2011 04:46 sandroba wrote:
What the hell? Kurumi you have easily earned my vote. You make no sense at all. How exactly you feel you are helping town by posting random crap and generating confusion? I read a bunch of other posts from you in other threads and I wonder how I can understand them so easily, while in this thread not at all.
Sandroba asking someone else about how they feel about a player:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 05 2011 05:27 sandroba wrote:
orgolove, and how do you feel about kurumi insane posting and irish_13/Killer_SOS poping out of the blue to defend him for no apparent reason?
The Sandroba FoS list. It's funny how you forget about things you do between day 1 and day 2:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 03:41 sandroba wrote:Here is my FOS list: KurumiSo, from what I can gather his plan was to behave like scum, add a lot of cconfusion, spam the thread like a mad man, just to see who would acuse him of being scum. Because, I mean, if you think someone who's being extremtly scummy is scum, then YOU must be scum, right? RIGHT? No. Irish_PunkJumped in to kurumi's defense claiming he's made great posts, but nobody seems to be able to find them. Guess what, they do not exist. He either knows kurumi is town or he knows kurumi is scum. Either way he is scum. Killer_SOSAgrees with Irish_Punk for no reason. Then chainsaw's against chaos13. Has many fillers and one liners with no content. I feel this guy is scum, but he's not a good day1 lynch for obvious reasons. Rising_PhoenixI would like you to look at this post (which I already stated why I find it very scummy): Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 23:29 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
Sorry I can't post while I'm asleep >.< Hi buddy!
Also what's with all these vets posting huge guides of how to play the game? It's not like we can't read the guides already on this and other sites with useful information. We do need a leader to help lead conversation and we need to be certain that the person isn't mafia.
I'm against a "day 1 inactive lynch" Unless we REALLY need to do it. Usually inactives are just disinterested townies, and if we go around lynching random people chances are we'll just hit a townie (simple math says 20% chance of mafia)
I also don't see a point in talking about our previous games experience. Really it seems like an easy way to clutter a thread. If you want to see their previous games, go into their post history unless they have a smurf. It seems like we know the people with smurfs so does it really matter? And also isn't it illegal to have two accounts on the site?
I feel huge day1 "newbies guides" are kinda useless and suspicious. While we definitely need direction, guides IN THREAD about how to play the game ore mostly filler. Most of what people said have been said are in guides both on this and other sites. I'm not saying it's suspicious but I am saying it's unnecessary and in general a pretty useless post. And then compare it to this post: Show nested quote +On April 24 2011 04:50 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
##Unvote
Sorry I was at a horn concert and doing some other stuff as well.
First, looking at this mathematically there are 11 players, 3 of which are mafia. If you randomly choose a person there is a approx. 27% chance of getting it right. However, choosing randomly is a bad idea since you never know if you're lynching an important member (cop or medic).
The cop should look up a random member that isn't himself(obviously). That means there is a 3 in 10 chance of him being right (30%). If he is right, he should be able to hint to everyone else who is mafia. That leaves everyone else voting on another person. If you know who the cop/detective is, that leaves a 3 in 9 chance (33%) of being right. That's from 1/5 to 1/3 probability of being right. I don't know how well this works for day one but numbers are fun =].
----- Break for other half---
Leadership for townies is essential, and right now it looks like Conversion and Freestalker are the two most active in leading conversation and topics. Unless one of them slips up, I'd refrain from killing either of them for now.
Silent members have three possibilities:
1)They're trying to hide
2)They're lazy or disinterested in the game
3)It's a holiday and they're traveling
Going through we have these people being pretty inactive:
-jaminz: a few filler posts, nothing as contribution to the thread, pointing fingers
-aScle: one post?
-Enervate: very little posting as well
These players have said very little or immediately start pointing fingers (Enervate) when they start pointing. However, it doesn't make sense to choose him because he hasn't bothered defending any accusations or contributing anything to support his claim.
aScle and Jaminz have had very little to contribute. Their posts have little to no content and have not been active in general. Also, Jaminz has been very ready to point fingers but has little supporting evidence. I'll vote for him since he's just detracting from town synergy.
So, unless he can defend himself:
##vote Jaminz This post is from newbie mini mafia I, in which he was scum and won a flawless victory. Note the similarities. RedtoothHoly shit, my whole team is exposing themselves like crazy. Time to chainsaw and discredit chaoser! I fail to see how this players you are calling obvtown are obvtown. Your logic is pretty fail: kurumi and irish_punk are so blatantly scum that they MUST NOT be scum so they MUST be town. If you keep following this logic doesn't this make them obvscum all over again? Then he picks Killer_SOS to focus on for day1 lynch. That's pretty dumb if you are town. That's all I have to say for now.
Supports a Redtooth lynch.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 04:13 sandroba wrote:
@GGQ I would fully suport redtooth lynch.
Sandroba thinking like a mafia. He claims that mafia would never want to see Kurumi dead, so why not pursue your list of suspects that you posted over 100 posts prior? Did those FoS-ee's tell you something?
+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 23:18 sandroba wrote:
The list argument is pretty dumb. If I were mafia I would NEVER want to see kurumi dead. He was basically doing mafia's job for them. He was spaming the thread, creating a lot of confusion and posting a lot of nonsense. There is no way in hell you could know for sure kurumi was town unless you were mafia. My suspicions are on the people who came to his defensess for no reason, because he was "obvtown". Seriously, you guys must be on a whole other level, because calling kurumi obvtown is like calling a rape a beautiful act between two people in love. Give me a break.
Vote for Kurumi, say 2 other players are scum.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 23:20 sandroba wrote:
And yes, I'm saying Irish and Redtooth are scum.
Doesn't like Jackals posts and calls him out as obv-town. Has anyone else called any other players out for being a town oriented role so far? Coincidence that Jackal also died the following night?
+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 23:45 sandroba wrote:
What a nice argument. Your last follow up question is a very logical leap (not). You must be obvtown as well, because it turns out people that make no sense flip green.
Now Sandroba all of a sudden supports REDTOOTH of all players coincidentally after Kurumi flips green. He suspects Irish of being mafia but doesn't act.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 07 2011 02:43 sandroba wrote:
I must admit I raged a bit when I saw your post because of your patronizing behaviour. While I do not agree with some of your points (first line should be implicit imo, not sure about restriction on quotes), I'm willing to give this a try and see how this goes, because I really like the cosponsor idea, as it would make it evident people hoping on bullshit analysis. You are putting a huge effort into organazing things, and I find it very unlikely you would be doing this if you were mafia. I still strongly believe (and will be held acountable) irish is mafia.
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EPT
