EPTTL Mafia XXXIX - Page 3
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
chaos13, I realize it looks bad for me, based on what little time I've spent in this game (especially since, why would anyone have a role that needs to be replaced twice?). And, at this point, I fully expect to be lynched at some point in the near future. I was asked to analyze kitaman earlier in the thread. I honestly don't have a solid pro-town or pro-scum read from him. I believed that there were better targets at the time, even though I wasn't convinced he was actually town. That's why I'd actually argue against a lynch of him. Does that make sense? I wasn't actually trying to attack him..... And, when it came to the EM/sinani thing that happened earlier - I don't want the town to be so indecisive - it's too easy for the mafia to manipulate. We need to be decisive with our lynches. At the time, I saw two different relationships involving EM going on. The EM or sinani, as well as the EM or ilj relationships. EM was involved in both of them, so he seemed to be the best lynch (for information purposes), because if he showed as red, we'd have known pretty solidly that sinani and ilj were green. Even if he didn't, I was positive that we'd find one or two reds between sinani and ilj after that. Of course, I was pretty harsh, and that really looked bad when EM popped green. I don't really have a good reason to keep my vote in ilj today. I think there's a chance he's actually scum. And I haven't been persuaded by anything else to change my vote yet..... I know, not necessarily a smart move, however, if anyone else has any ideas, I'm open to them. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
I definitely think there's something fishy going on between orgolove and DropBear. DropBear showed up really, really high on orgolove's statistical analysis, and then after the analysis, his numbers basically dropped as fast as possible. This leads me to think that it's quite possible that one or the other are actually mafia. Either orgolove set it up to frame some townies, or DropBear knowingly did the best he could to lower his rating (which he could only do if he was red). I'm not certain about either of these two, but I do know that if one flips red, I'm 100% certain that the other is town. I don't want to lynch either though, since both have potential to contribute a lot, and we'd have to commit to 2 lynches, in case we were wrong. I'd like to wait for something stronger. Lynching ilovejonn would just be cleaning up the link between him and EM. Suspicious to a few people. Maybe not the best lynch possible, but I don't think it's a bad one. Varpilus did a good job analyzing redtooth earlier. I had a pretty solid pro-town reading earlier in the game, but now I'm not so sure. I wouldn't want to lynch him right now, because he has the potential to contribute a lot, and we'd miss out on that if he's town and we're doing the wrong thing. There's been some people who have been too quiet for my liking. jaminiz is one of them. I wouldn't be against lynching him today (since he seems scummy to some people + lurking), simply because a lurker/less active poster will not help us later on, assuming the worst case scenario of a mislynch. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
On May 17 2011 09:14 Varpulis wrote: Imp, one of the reasons I'm suspicious of redtooth is just that: he has the potential to be very helpful, but he hasn't been at all pro-town or active lately. he's turned from an active and outspoken player who had everybody convinced he was town to a shady guy hiding do that he doesn't have to post an opinion. He's got the potential to be a very good townie, but lately he's been just the opposite. I don't like jaminz as a lynch today. I don't believe that he's scum, personally. That's just it - if we're not sure about a lynch today, why would you want to lynch someone who could potentially be useful in the future? I don't think that checking the changes in activity levels of people is a smart way to analyze someone. Believe it or not, RL things catch up to people..... | ||
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
On May 17 2011 10:46 kitaman27 wrote: -Impervious and jaminz are my two remaining scum suspects at the moment. Impervious defended sinani pretty hard without providing any decent reasons besides we would get more information lynching someone else. jaminz doesn't even mention sinani day three or day four until its obvious he can't be saved near the end of the cycle. And information is not important? I was pretty certain that either EM or sinani would be red. Not both, but one of them. At the time, we had much more limited information than we do now. Out of all the possible outcomes: EM is scum, sinani is town - we could be very sure that ilj is town. sinani is scum, EM is town - doesn't tell us anything about ilj's allegiance. EM and sinani are both town - yet again, it doesn't tell us anything about ilj's allegiance. Both being scum is out of the question..... For pretty obvious reasons..... But it would also clear ilj if it somehow happened. So, looking at the info based on what could happen: Lynch EM - Flips Red - We know sinani and ilj are town. Lynch EM - Flips Green - Suspect sinani Lynch sinani - Flips Red - EM is cleared Lynch sinani - Flips Green - Suspect EM The only situation where we would be able to find out more info on the first lynch was the first one - the one I advocated. In hindsight, it was the wrong move, however, based on the info we had, I'll stick to my decision that it was the better lynch at the time. Granted, it wasn't much better than the other options, but it was still the better option. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
On May 17 2011 11:10 chaos13 wrote: Alright, let me point out a few things I'm having problems with here. To begin with, you state that you would be okay with lynching jaminz because he is inactive. This is immediately after you state that you do not want to lynch redtooth, even though he is being inactive. redtooth being inactive is great cause for worry. He is a veteran player, which means that at this point he should be contributing regularly and helping town out. He was even the last person to vote for sinani206, and didn't post reasoning for it in the thread. redtooth should be way more suspicious than jaminz right now. You also state that you would be okay to lynch ilovejonn, just to clear up the confusion about him and EternalMisfit. Not because you think he is mafia, but because people are confused about him. Actually, it's not just because he's inactive - if I had to choose between jaminiz and redtooth for a lynch right now, I'd choose jaminiz. Why? Because I don't know what jaminiz can contribute, while I know that redtooth can deliver, and I'm not sure if either of them are actually mafia. There's no guarantee that redtooth will deliver, but lynching jaminiz would be the lesser of two evils. Also, yes, I am a supporter of policy or information lynches. While it would be nice to be able to peg the mafia in our next two lynches, I find that highly unlikely. So anything we can do that will get us closer to determining who they actually are in the case that we don't lynch correctly is definitely going to help us out later on. We're not in a lylo right now..... | ||
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
On May 17 2011 11:11 Varpulis wrote: Impervious, your argument does not sit well with me. I simply do not agree that just because he could be useful later in the case that he's town, we should not lynch him because we think that he's mafia. I'm not suffering from indecision. I've made my choice. It's not just the changing activity levels either. Look through redtooth's last 10 posts. Is there any real content? those 10 posts have a timeline of almost 2 in-game days, and 5 real life days. If you're going to be unable to devote time to the game for that long, you should at least have the courtesy to tell the mod/other players about it. redtooth is experienced enough, he should know that. I basically disappeared over the last few days as well (although not as severe as his), and now that I'm back, I get people pointing a FoS at me..... | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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I'll help you get rid of me, so you can actually get back on the right track..... | ||
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
and tomorrow I'll be a prime lynch target going now would help more than hurt the town. | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Impervious
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guys..... | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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I don`t`think that orgolove is actually scum. I think he`s a bit of a pissed off townie cause we`re not following his list, which is mainly because he isn`t really conveying the information as well as he could be, nor arguing for its validity/usefulness. He's been useful to the town, and the stats will constantly become more useful as the game goes on. He's been an asset to the town. I haven't. So I did the best thing I could think of at the last minute - switch to me instead. | ||
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Impervious
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