EPTTL Mafia XXXIX - Page 2
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
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Impervious
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On May 12 2011 13:30 orgolove wrote: Uh, I have lives like anyone else. I think I spent enough time on Day 2 of this game given it took like 6 hours to take the data, think of reasonable factors, apply the patterns, write up a convincing summary. And yet you guys would rather listen to ineffective and at best circumstantial evidence without looking at hard data. I can't change your behaviors. But you guys also can't force me to put in all that effort again, when I know it'll go to waste. Mafia is about more than just statistical analysis, especially when you're taking such a small sample of data into consideration. And, yes, 2 days is a small sample. We now have a 3rd day of data. As such, any analysis you do on this data has the potential to be even better. And now that you've already done the majority of the work setting it up (yes, I did read it all), it should be much, much quicker to add the new data to it. chaoser left us a list of likely scum. He proved to be pretty damn good at identifying scum in this game, so his opinion holds a lot of weight. chaoser's list of sinani, ilovejohn, GGQ, and EternalMisfit so far contained 1 mafia, and he pegged one himself already. There's 2 we haven't checked. I suspect we'll find one more mafia between those two remaining people. Technically, my only vote in this game has been against a town player, so I also fall under that suspicious category. I'm sure I've raised higher on your list of players that are suspicious (I remember I had something like ~10 pts already, right?). The type of statistics you took look at the actions of people. It will not be exact, but it is a useful tool to pick out potential scum. It is also pretty easy to fake, given the right circumstances. I know that I've seen it done before. It's especially dangerous for a GF to act really, really pro-town, and even lynch his own mafia members to give them a better shot at winning down the line. At the same time, substance is also a useful tool to identify scum. And, so far, we've been looking at the substance of what people have been posting to determine how pro-town or pro-scum they are. It is incredibly useful early in the game to hit scum, because there's not enough information for a statistical approach yet. I know you're probably pissed that we didn't follow your list of players. That shit happens. And it sucks. But your approach will be very, very useful to us by the time day 5 or 6 hits. If you don't want to keep updating the spreadsheet, I can understand that. At least make it available for other townies to work on. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
I mentioned it earlier, but nobody really caught on (except sandroba), and I think it may be relevant for catching at least one of the scum. The question was: Why KillerSOS and Jackal on night 1? They seem like weird targets imo. Does anyone with more experience also find it weird? Because, if so, analyzing those night kills may provide us with some useful info. It's just a thought. | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Also, I didn't notice the DL link in the original post..... My bad. | ||
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Impervious
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Although, I'm not sure if we even have a 2nd DT anymore. I've been assuming it, but we may need to actually play with the assumption that there is no 2nd DT..... | ||
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Impervious
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On May 13 2011 06:14 Varpulis wrote: @ Impervious Killer slipped blue here and Jaminz noticed it here. Fuck. I missed that. Nvm about KillerSOS then. But, why Jackal? | ||
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Impervious
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They probably wouldn't have mentioned Jackal's death as the reason for it, since they could rely on a dumbass townie to do that for them. | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Though, to be honest, I only expect one mafia between ilj and sinani at this point. | ||
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Impervious
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On May 13 2011 11:59 GMarshal wrote: [/b]Mafia Deamon of Tzeench is dead If you're going to reference the Changer Of Ways in your post, spell his name right. | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Impervious
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I could be missing something, and there's more to it, but I think that's pretty much it. I'm still confused about Jackal's death though. I mean, if the plan was to use his death to misdirect us, nobody actually tried to do that, and one of the best candidates for a misdirection would have been sandroba..... | ||
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
On May 13 2011 22:39 DropBear wrote: Impervious if you have doubts, don't vote him. I'm going to leave it here for now, and see where it goes. | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Holy crap. A few days ago, I figured we'd find 1 scum out of lynching EM, sinani, and ilj. From the look of it, we may be able to get 2! | ||
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Impervious
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On May 15 2011 14:19 orgolove wrote: + Show Spoiler + Here's the spreadsheet with updated vote results. http://uploadmirrors.com/download/LFRNBCMK/TL_mafia_xxxix_day_4.xlsx First, the criteria again: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ivzZj.png) Day 3 was another really important vote, in hindsight, as sinani206 was revealed to be a red. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bE3v0.png) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/na9FI.png) Day 4 didn't bring too many changes. Though the vote was close at the start of 12 hours, it was more because the reds didn't have the manpower to switch the lynch, rather than there being actually two contested results. And the data shows that. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/0KqkS.png) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/e7zuY.png) + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ruJel.png) How did it feel, having to choose between two of your own? lololol Of course, in red's point of view, it'd be better to lose the new player whose every action had to be directed, and save the vet who could, given a miracle, survive... (ha) Here's the summary. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/GeFlM.png) I have more confidence in this, as it compiles 4 days of data, instead of just 2. But again, because I revealed the methodology before this, it is not completely impossible that the reds tried to coordinate and manipulate the procedures. I'll see about tweaking the factors the next time I play mafia. To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds. I strongly push for ilovejonn's lynch. Hey, can I ask you a quick question? This info is useful to the town as well as useful to the Mafia. They can kill one of the lower-scoring townies with relative impunity..... Why, exactly, did you feel that you needed to post it so early in the night? Also, for everyone else - Don't post any lists right now. Seriously, just don't. Don't post any analysis right now. Wait until the day post - that way the Mafia can't choose to kill someone who seems pro-town..... We've got a huge advantage. Let's not fuck it up. | ||
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