Sleeper Cell Mafia

Results of the investigation on Jackal58:
Insufficient Information for Analysis

On April 25 2011 21:38 Jackal58 wrote:

I was thinking about this on my way to work Ace. (Hour + drive and I spend it thinking about Mafia. I need help.)
In this setup would it not be even more beneficial for scum to lurk? Why I ask is it would seem to me that if what Wiggles said is true "scum can kill scum" and we can lynch them when they slip up what incentive do they have to post at all other than to avoid a mod kill? If they try to appear town their scum buddies can kill them. If they try to hide and skate we'll lynch them. I understand that scum still know they're scum but I believe this setup will drastically alter their behavior. As in making it almost non existent. So to that end I would like iGrok to verify Wiggles statement of scum being able to kill scum. I'm not getting that from the OP. And if that is the way it works I'm thinking we should just lynch the least active player each day.
Maybe I'm thinking to much into this.

Can scum hit scum at night?

On April 27 2011 08:47 Jackal58 wrote:
Long drive home. Traffic sucked. Actually traffic lights sucked. The first 20 miles they were all out. Fuck me. Anyways I was pondering what I may have said or done to appear scummy to Why and Ace. I honestly can't think of a reason. I have been honest and straight up with my posts. I asked questions about sandroba and why he would make a post that alluded to information he wouldn't share. Why thought that was scummy. sandroba answered it and others beat me about the head and shoulders about it. I'm not always the most astute person in the world. I moved on. I did what I felt was an honest analysis of tnkted. I was hoping tnk would respond so we could move on. Tnkted is playing in a game I am cohosting on another forum He has not been there all day so I am going to assume he just has life going on today. Ace just says I'm scummy with no real reasons. He says tnkted is just playing poorly. and I'm scum because I analyzed him. I say bull shit to both their votes.
So my traffic addled brain came up with two reasons.
The first one is scum cannot build a bus today because they don't know each other. Except for one. This scenario would put why in the scum camp with Ace as the CL. It's the only bus scum can do. Why has disappeared. Ace has voted me because I'm scummy.

The second scenario is this. I was talking to Coagulation before the game started about the people playing. Asking him for his opinion of those that I hadn't played with or played very little with. Most are names I don't know. Coag didn't know them either. But his assessment of Ace was much praise on his ability to play scum. He said he's one of the best. But that was followed by "But his town play absolutely sucks".

So now I am torn between two options. I honestly don't know which scenario makes more sense to me. I really do hate day 1.

On April 28 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote:

It took me a minute to figure out what you were referring to. My ride home last night was brutal. It was back to the norm tonight. Just long.

On April 26 2011 06:22 Jackal58 wrote:

I think if you are scum in this set up you are forced into hiding until you know who is on your team.
I am town. I have nothing to hide from town. My biggest let down would be to become a mislynch for town. Lynches are the only means we have to win. Scum will target pro town at night. I have no control over that. If I get shot that just means scum thought I was doing a good job.
Scum can't afford to post much. If they attempt to appear too much like town they run the risk of being killed by their own teammates at night. They do not yet possess the knowledge to bandwagon lynches so they are on their own in that respect. Not to mention running the risk of lynching their own. Or slipping up and getting lynched themselves. I really think activity levels will tell a story when this game is over. Just my opinion.

On April 25 2011 23:28 Jackal58 wrote:
My 3 would be
tnkted

Tackster

GMarshall

My messages to all 3 would be from shared game experiences

tnkted would be a simple one My beloved. He would know exactly who sent it.

Tackster would be just as easy. You're easiest. He also would know who it was from.

GMarshall would be a bit more difficult but it would refer to LSB's Clues and Puzzles game where we were both scum together and LSBs first clus was basically Jackal is scum. I'd have to think about how I wrote it but it would allude to that.

All of these are fun and all but basically what I'm seeing from all of these is the CL can reveal himself to cell members one at a time. Does nothing for each cell member to id each other.
For that to happen something has to be left in the thread.

On April 26 2011 23:37 Jackal58 wrote:
We have about 12 hours remaining until day is up. So it's time we begin to decide who is going to be our first lynch. I really hate day 1 in these games. I pretty much suck at the beginning of these.
That said though I do think tnkted has made a few posts that need to be clarified by him.
Let's start with this one.

So if it's in towns best interest to drop it why did you bring it up? The subject did not arise due to a slip in conversation or an argument. You flat out stated you had a strange role:

And then continued again:

And he also tries to assure GM that the cell leader can't possibly have gone out yet. But for all we know he may have laid out the first part of his breadcrumbing to his team mates in pregame posts.
He doesn't want to discuss it yet it was an intentional slip/slide/red herring/breadcrumb or whatever you want to call it.



Now this post:

Everybody disregard my bread crumb? Don't look for breadcrumbs? Don't look for scumtells?
I didn't sign up for basket weaving tnkted. Wtf should we do?



And lastly

Seems to know how the CL is going to operate. Then tells us to ignore any DT checks we may get.


I am not the greatest analyzer in this game. Far from it. It is also day one so the body of work we all have to go on is minimal. However these posts from tnkted all seem to carry the same anti-town feel to them. If I'm way off the mark please show me. Until then my vote is going on tnkted.
Sorry twinkles.

On April 26 2011 08:01 Jackal58 wrote:
Happy birthday Mr. Wiggles.

On April 26 2011 08:06 Ace wrote:
Happy Birthday Wiggles.

Impervious can you list your 3 players?

On April 29 2011 09:04 Mr. Wiggles wrote:


No, it was my birthday a couple days ago, and I got a mech keyboard, and blue switches are really fun to type on.

On April 29 2011 10:07 Ace wrote:
Even so there is no way for us to verify he got a message from the CL. Even if he did and was guessing about you or myself we don't have many posts of his to look at.

I still think bumatlarge is our lynch for today.

On April 29 2011 11:06 VarpuliS wrote:
I'm tending to agree with Ace here. Zorkmid was even more aggressive and spammy than last time I played with him, and the ragequit while under pressure is really strange. I just don't get why a townie would do something like that.

I'm sorry, Batman.

##Vote: bumatlarge

On April 29 2011 11:13 Ace wrote:
bum that is some of the dumbest logic I've ever seen. You are REALLY trying to warp the fabric of reality there. Either way I'm calling bs on your claim:

When the day started and why claimed I was scum you sided with him and voted for me as a lynch candidate. Not once did you mention anything about Jackal.

When I refuted his post against me all of a sudden you come out with a claim that Jackal is scum - even though your investigation turns up insufficient. Like I said before this would be well and good because you have to take a chance but the fact that you voted for me when the day started kind of kills this proof.

If you knew Jackal was scum why would you vote for me?

On April 29 2011 11:13 Ace wrote:
bum that is some of the dumbest logic I've ever seen. You are REALLY trying to warp the fabric of reality there. Either way I'm calling bs on your claim:

When the day started and why claimed I was scum you sided with him and voted for me as a lynch candidate. Not once did you mention anything about Jackal.

When I refuted his post against me all of a sudden you come out with a claim that Jackal is scum - even though your investigation turns up insufficient. Like I said before this would be well and good because you have to take a chance but the fact that you voted for me when the day started kind of kills this proof.

If you knew Jackal was scum why would you vote for me?

On April 29 2011 11:31 Impervious wrote:
Statistically, it's a far better choice to lynch anyone who got "insufficient analysis" than to try to check them again.

I say we go for it. Right now. Maybe get Ace tomorrow?

Although, bum, I don't like how you're already revealing yourself..... I don't think you were in any danger yet, so it seems unnecessary at this point.

On April 29 2011 13:35 GGQ wrote:
Also, something I forgot to mention before. You seem to think that lynching the cell leader will remove the scum's ability to communicate, but scum gets a new cell leader chosen, so... yeah.

On April 29 2011 13:08 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Bum, your logic is bad.

Firstly, you call Jackal the Cell Leader without even considering the possibility that there's a 25% chance that he would show up as "Insufficient" if he were anything else.

Right away you assume that he is the Cell Leader, and decide to make a bad claim rather than just push an analysis.

Let me explain why I think it's a bad claim and that you might be lying.

Let's imagine you are a DT, and you checked Jackal, and got an "insufficient for analysis".

You would then decide to build a case against him so that you can try to get him lynched.

If you don't claim:

-You make a case, if it's strong, you get him lynched.
-If he flips red, you might survive the night if scum hit someone else instead cause they just think you're a green who analyzed
-If he flips town, you were wrong and it was RNG. People will be suspicious of you, but you'll most likely survive the night

If you claim:

-You make a case with a claim, Jackal gets lynched
-If he flips red, you die, scum know who you are
-If he flips town, you die, scum know who you are

It does not make sense to claim here. By claiming, you assure scum will hit you 100% rather than having any chance to live by not claiming. You also received an insufficient for analysis, not a Red return, so that even makes a claim weaker, because there's a chance you got the return on a town anyways, it's not a sure thing.

So, I think you're claim can be fake for two reasons.

1. You don't mention the probability of it being wrong, so that makes me think that you just forgot about it. A real DT would keep in mind that there's RNG for everyone, and that doesn't just happen for the GF. By forgetting to even mention that until later when someone else brings it up, it makes me believe that you forgot about it in the first place, i.e. you might not be a DT.

2. The claim makes no sense. You say you claimed because you would have died anyways. That only makes sense again, if you think that the ONLY person who brings back "insufficient" is GF and not anyone else. If you were DT, and Jackal flips green, scum wouldn't hit you. If he flipped red, then you're not as likely to live, but they might let you if they're trying to snipe blues or something. Claiming makes it a 100% chance that you would die.

Now, all your "breadcrumb" things are terrible and a null-tell.

It makes no sense for scum to try to breadcrumb into the thread unless it's to direct other scum and communicate plans. Crumbing in the thread to identify yourself in PM is just stupid. So you're saying that Jackal bread crumbed about driving, and my birthday, instead of just saying, "I'm OPEC, clues and puzzles", "Steelers, profile", "Ilich Ramírez Sánchez, wiki", which would be easily recognizable as being him? Then the thing about my birthday isn't a tell either. It's normal when it's someone's birthday, to say, "Happy Birthday". As well, you missed Vain wishing me one later, so was that him just picking up on the crumb later? You're looking too far into that, unless you think Vain, Ace, and Jackal are all scum breadcrumbing, and tack was just an innocent bystander.

You also say that you don't want to analyze Jackal, because:



Right here, you say, "Jackal doesn't look like scum from his posting". You're relying on your supposed "DT information", to be the decider for his lynch. However, if you were a DT, you would look at your result and then go over his posts. If he didn't look scummy to you, you would decide that it was RNG. Just claiming, without strong analysis, with the chance that he's town, is just bad play.

I think you're smarter than that and would think things through if you were a DT. So, I think you're lying.

On April 29 2011 13:41 Ace wrote:
If he's lying about being a DT the real DT might claim or outright oppose him. Once he's lynched his team would know who's the actual DT via posts in the thread and shoot him. With the "Vigi" dead and the "DT" dead the 2 listed Town power roles would be dead and we'd virtually be plain vanilla townies vs Scum with no other leads.

Realize he's not trading himself. Remember his analysis wasn't that Jackal is scum - it's that he got no information from the check. This way if Jackal flips town he can always say well it was a mistake.

bum isn't trading himself 1 for 1 here - he's setting up a position that has an out in case Jackal flips town or he gets lynched. He's made up a bunch of hypothetical links here. If he didn't start the day off attacking me I'd believe him.

If you believe his claim is legit then answer this for me: Why would he accuse me, then Jackal? If he is really the detective wouldn't he just out Jackal instead of waiting half the day to start?

On April 30 2011 04:35 Ace wrote:
bum the part of your post with bread crumbing is wrong though. You didn't know CL can communicate with Agents privately?

On April 29 2011 17:24 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Wow, bum. Nowhere did I call you scum yet, I'm just trying to wrap my head around your claim that in my eyes, is bad play. nowhere did I "explode", either. I just don't like that you're trying to insinuate that I'm scum based on the silly notion people saying happy birthday is scum communicating. When I was talking about breadcrumbs, I was talking about ways that scum would direct scum, or let them know their identity. Just looking at the car ride, and saying, "He talked about a car ride! Message was car ride!", isn't very strong in my opinion. It looks like you're looking too far into it to me. What next, the person who also said they have exams is my scum-buddy because they also said they have exams? I'm also not attacking your analysis, because there isn't an analysis there to begin with, I'm arguing against your logic.

You're getting angry and throwing around accusations instead of answering any of my questions or addressing my points.

EVERYONE talked about Cell leader and breadcrumbs on day 1, the only thing I find suspicious is Jackal pushing for whoever to explain his method of crumbing, so what else sets him apart?

WHY would you claim, it doesn't help town, and it doesn't help you, so why? This pisses me off more than anything, because we lose a blue role for sure now if you're telling the truth.

HOW CAN YOU BE SURE, that driving is a breadcrumb? At that point, you can go back in the thread and just construe talking about anything non-game related to be a scum tell, so what makes it particularly telling? just that he mentioned it three times?.

I can't even understand half of what you say when you reply to me, but all I want is just to get to the bottom of things and address questions instead of sheeping and following blue claims without a thought. Your replies don't help put me at ease though, because you just go off on tangents and repeat yourself instead of discuss.

Right now, there's a about 8 people lurking, and the scum among them are just LOVING this, because it gives them cover to not do anything. Day ends in less than 24 hours, and the only people talking are me, you, ace, and san. Jackal made some posts, and why pushed for a lynch at the beginning of the day and then disappeared. Everyone else is invisible.

On April 30 2011 05:53 Ace wrote:
Well right now jackal is in the lead with 3 votes.

I don't think bum is a dead man walking because if he's a Scum lying about being DT we are back to the same scenario tomorrow. His reasoning just doesn't add up period.



Just what I said. I have no idea how your entire link between Me and Jackal = we both said happy birthday to Mr. Wiggles. Thats just ridiculous. We can all pick out arbitrary posts and say HEY LOOK A BREADCRUMB!

On April 29 2011 10:54 bumatlarge wrote:
That's about what I got. Also, here is some funny stuff. Just sayin if this is right, then I called it first.





And Ace posts right after. Ace defintely knows Jackal is CL lololololol, and I think ace was trying to identify if jackal was pointing wiggles out as another agent. That would be hilarious. (Tackster said happy birthday too! But he doesn't count lololol)



Oh happy birthday wiggles! Im sure jackal wished you happy birthday in that message he sent you as well. So like, does mafia want to concede now, or do they want to make this enjoyable for me?

On April 30 2011 05:47 VarpuliS wrote:
Alright bum, please stop with your statistical bullshit. The statistics are wrong, and RNG's are random.

I really can't understand why you would claim dt because you got an inconclusive result. Now, we can't even verify your claim by lynching you or Jackal, because no matter what either of you flip, we can't confirm anybody.

About the crumbs: It's stupid. As somebody said in the thread, it could be said that You're cell leader and I'm a sleeper cell agent because you said Batman in your opening post and I addressed you as batman in a later post.

You're not going to live past night two, unless the scum are really stupid. You are aware that we already lost one intelligence agent, right?

I'm really not sure about who to vote for at this point. Nobody seems good at the moment. I don't buy the connection between ace and Jackal, because from what I can tell the only evidence is the fact that they both wished Mr. Wiggles a happy birthday.

Lynching bum is stupid, he's a dead man walking anyways.

I'll have to look through the thread again. I'll post soon with a decision.

On April 30 2011 12:04 Ace wrote:
mentioning DTs doesn't make you a DT

@bum: *yawn*

On April 25 2011 07:36 tnkted wrote:
Yep, got mine too.

This is going to be an interesting game, I got a strange role.

On April 25 2011 07:41 tnkted wrote:
Lol GM, the cell leader's messages can't possibly have gone out yet, the game hasn't even started yet.

I'm not crumbing, I'm just honestly stating that my role is strange.

Here:

WEIRD ROLE, DUDES

On April 25 2011 07:47 tnkted wrote:


It makes perfect sense once you see the role. I might actually claim pretty early this game. Debating the merits of it.

On April 25 2011 12:21 tnkted wrote:
Everyone disregard this (crumbing for later):
DSBETNLBNTF

Now, on to the game. Trying to find scum's breadcrumbs is going to be extremely difficult imo. There are two ways I think we can play this game if breadcrumbing is vitally important:

1. Set up a posting standardization system where people refrain from using coloqualisms and any identifying characteristics. This system would have to be set up so that all players may only communicate using certain standard symbols or phrases. By simplifying the language like this we can dirastically reduce the ways in which breadcrumbing can happen. However, such a system would completely remove all sense of personality and also all other possible scumtells.

2. Not focus on breadcrumbing at all, except where it is obvious. If we focus on breadcrumbing, picking apart everybody's posts for clues and hints we're going to completely miss what we should be really looking for in those posts, which are scumtells. You can bet that since scum doesn't know who scum is, they are NOT going to want to vote for the scummiest players. Scum is going to act stranger than normal, so we can't waste time looking for scumtells. We can't stop the CL from pming his cronies, so looking for scumtells is a waste of time and town attention. Remember what happened when we focused on the item game in insane 2? We won the item game but lost the overall game. :/

Now, 1 is going to be pretty difficult to do, so I vote that we do 2.

On May 06 2011 13:19 Ace wrote:
its not what you know, it's what you can convince people to believe

besides bum never had a concrete "ok these guys have to be scum and there is no other way" post

On April 30 2011 11:55 bumatlarge wrote:
Aw, jackal vote yourself like a man. I hope you guys at least rally up so you know what to do after you do this.

Jackal
Ace
Wiggles
maybe sandroba, but not sure.

Ace succeeds at convincing town to lynch the DT again. Props Ace.