TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 37

On April 11 2011 04:56 Protactinium wrote:
So I have said that I want to help the town purely because of fun. You have no way to believe me, correct? Well how about I start proving what I said then. It's day 1, there's plenty of information out there to do some analysis and reveal a plan.

There are two ways mafia and/or assassins can react to my campaign.

1) Ignore my post or minimalize it
2) Actively fight against it

You can 100% bet that they will not be supporting my candidacy. Assassins in particular must be vocal. Naturally, they do not want me elected whatsoever. In addition assassins and mafia can and will freely attack me because it's very easy to make up some nonsense about why I should not be elected, and lo and behold, a number have already done that. Some will be townie, but I dare say there's a very nice probability that at least half are mafia or assassin.

The first point is also interesting. It would be rather unlikely for a townie to look at my candidacy and not have a strong opinion on it one way or another: it's a polarizing issue. You either like it or you don't. We'll cover that in a future post, as it caught a few other suspects.

List of People attacking my campaign, openly or subtly. AKA Mafia & Assassin list

Gmarshal
tnkted
mig
kitaman
Kavdragon
Wiggles
Darmousseh
Dropbear
Robellicose
Coagulation

Note that DoctorHelvetica is not on this list even though he is opposing me quite heavily, because he changed his stance over time. Upon seeing my campaign, Mafia and Assassins would instantly think "I don't want this guy in office" and their posts would reflect that. DoctorHelvetica, on the other hand, came in supporting me initially and changed his opnion over time upon reflecting on it more. I suppose this could have been an act but I'd rather go with Occam's Razor for now, making me think he is town.

This list will have for certain 1 assassin and highly likely both of them because they cannot let me get into office (yes there are 3 assassins). As the Assassins also know they are on this list, they will also find it very likely that their counterpart will be on the list too. However, this list is going to also have multiple mafia on it. I'm guessing 2-3. Why Mafia? Quite simply, they don't want an invincible double shot vigi and a free rolecheck visible to all, and also, someone who they absolutely cannot manipulate the town to kill.

The best part? The assassins only have 1 rolecheck and will have to fire into a group of people that has a high concentration of mafia in order to find their enemy. We can lynch from this list if you want, but tbh we really don't need to. Assassins will sort out the matter themselves or forfeit all chances of winning.

Lastly, a lot of people seem to be missing the point of my election, talking about some nonsense of how I might be mafia (LOL) or I won't help the town at all (which as you can see above is patently not true). However, who cares? The main points are:

1) You get TWO vigi hits, aka you double or more the town's non-lynch kp, and a dt check publicly known. This is quite important, as all too often dt's die before revealing any of their findings or are so trapped by fear that they won't reveal anything anyways.
2) You know I'm not mafia, so the town can't blow the game like it has many times in the past by lynching its own elected roles, of which there is a substantial and inherent pull to do.

On April 11 2011 05:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:

tnkted is assassin probably

kavdragon/mib are mafia

gmarshal is probably town imo

On April 11 2011 04:56 Protactinium wrote:
So I have said that I want to help the town purely because of fun. You have no way to believe me, correct? Well how about I start proving what I said then. It's day 1, there's plenty of information out there to do some analysis and reveal a plan.

There are two ways mafia and/or assassins can react to my campaign.

1) Ignore my post or minimalize it
2) Actively fight against it

You can 100% bet that they will not be supporting my candidacy. Assassins in particular must be vocal. Naturally, they do not want me elected whatsoever. In addition assassins and mafia can and will freely attack me because it's very easy to make up some nonsense about why I should not be elected, and lo and behold, a number have already done that. Some will be townie, but I dare say there's a very nice probability that at least half are mafia or assassin.

The first point is also interesting. It would be rather unlikely for a townie to look at my candidacy and not have a strong opinion on it one way or another: it's a polarizing issue. You either like it or you don't. We'll cover that in a future post, as it caught a few other suspects.

List of People attacking my campaign, openly or subtly. AKA Mafia & Assassin list

Gmarshal
tnkted
mig
kitaman
Kavdragon
Wiggles
Darmousseh
Dropbear
Robellicose
Coagulation

Note that DoctorHelvetica is not on this list even though he is opposing me quite heavily, because he changed his stance over time. Upon seeing my campaign, Mafia and Assassins would instantly think "I don't want this guy in office" and their posts would reflect that. DoctorHelvetica, on the other hand, came in supporting me initially and changed his opnion over time upon reflecting on it more. I suppose this could have been an act but I'd rather go with Occam's Razor for now, making me think he is town.

This list will have for certain 1 assassin and highly likely both of them because they cannot let me get into office (yes there are 3 assassins). As the Assassins also know they are on this list, they will also find it very likely that their counterpart will be on the list too. However, this list is going to also have multiple mafia on it. I'm guessing 2-3. Why Mafia? Quite simply, they don't want an invincible double shot vigi and a free rolecheck visible to all, and also, someone who they absolutely cannot manipulate the town to kill.

The best part? The assassins only have 1 rolecheck and will have to fire into a group of people that has a high concentration of mafia in order to find their enemy. We can lynch from this list if you want, but tbh we really don't need to. Assassins will sort out the matter themselves or forfeit all chances of winning.

Lastly, a lot of people seem to be missing the point of my election, talking about some nonsense of how I might be mafia (LOL) or I won't help the town at all (which as you can see above is patently not true). However, who cares? The main points are:

1) You get TWO vigi hits, aka you double or more the town's non-lynch kp, and a dt check publicly known. This is quite important, as all too often dt's die before revealing any of their findings or are so trapped by fear that they won't reveal anything anyways.
2) You know I'm not mafia, so the town can't blow the game like it has many times in the past by lynching its own elected roles, of which there is a substantial and inherent pull to do.

On April 11 2011 04:56 Pandain wrote:
But this is the PANDAIN PLAN

1.Proctat reveal the two bodyguards.
2. Watchers are HEAVILY advised to visit these people. Obviously there may not be a watcher(even though there likely is.) But the most important thing is that the threat remains the same.
This makes it very risky for the other assasins to even attempt to shoot the bodyguards for fear of losing. They will most likely have to wait a couple days, during which we shall have ample time to find them.

Proctat will be helping town while still fulfilling his role condition. There is no reason not to vote for him.

On April 11 2011 05:06 tnkted wrote:


Sigh.

I'm not assassin. Look at protracts logic: anyone that disagrees with his arguments is mafia? Of course not. If I was black or mafia I'd be supporting his campaign along with everyone else because it would let be blend in much better and the tide of public opinion is extremely pro-protract at the moment. Scum doesn't vote for what makes sense to their game-plan unless they absolutely have to. They vote with public opinion because it lets them blend in better. Theres a reason people fear band wagoning so much.

On April 11 2011 05:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:

tnkted is assassin probably

kavdragon/mib are mafia

gmarshal is probably town imo

On April 11 2011 05:08 TranceStorm wrote:

Sure, this will keep the bodyguards alive and keep the the people elected alive, but it will definitely take away the usefulness of the watcher, since the mafia/assassins' will be guaranteed to steer clear of them. Furthermore, if the mafia/assassins were to accidentally hit the watchers, the following turn we could be pretty sure that the bodyguards would be dead as well since they've been outed.

On April 11 2011 05:09 Coagulation wrote:
WE ARE NOT AIMING TO KILL ASSASSINS
WE ARE AIMING TO KILL SCUM

On April 11 2011 05:13 Coagulation wrote:
Why are people fucking not understanding this?

I think this whole assassin debate is pretty much derailing us from hunting scum. Mafia are probably most inclined to support this assassin in mayor SHIT because #1 it doesnt endanger themselves and #2 they get the benefit of having town deal with fucking assassins all fucking game instead of IGNORING THEM LIKE WE SHOULD and hunting scum. Fuck Pandains prolly the fucking GF What kind of idiot town would claim DT DAY 1 ? WTF.