TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 2

On April 13 2011 15:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Today on the shitter I thought "flamewheel is either assassin or detective making some ballsy play"

however i don't believe you are bad enough to DT claim day 2 on a check, I mean really? that's textbook shit. This pandain stuff sounds like mumbo jumbo you made up after the fact.

Here's what I think. I think you're the assassin. I think you came to the same conclusion as me:
Coagulation and Kitaman27 are the other two assasins.

You think you can win very quickly, if coagulation is lynched and you burn your hit on Kitaman27. I'm not convinced. This is just very odd behavior and I wouldn't expect this from a player like you of all people.

I'll look back on coagulations posts and crosscheck with your analysis tomorrow. Still working on homework tonight but I'm skeptical right off the bat. Please elaborate more on your DT gambit ESPECIALLY why you decided to claim?

Why not simply make a case? Everyone believed you were trying to help town as the assassin? Why not just say "look coagulation is probably mafia here is my case as to why" and get the lynch onto him? As I see it you have a huge incentive to see Coag dead if you got the same read on him I did and you are indeed the assassin : /

On April 13 2011 15:38 bumatlarge wrote:
Ah, that does make sense, and the assasin numbers does sound clever. Were you planning on being mayor and then revealing or what?

Though to be fair coagulation has been very active playing pokemon, not sure if thats an excuse for his activity. But I can't really go against a DT check with no millers. I think it's fairly obvious we should be lynching coagulation.

On April 13 2011 15:56 Mig wrote:
I don't really understand why prot didn't just run for mayor normally instead of trying the assassin gambit. Everyone agrees hes a very strong player with excellent analysis, it seems like he would be a great mayor just as a normal townie. If he runs this gambit and it fails then he has to convince the town he was faking before and even if he accomplishes that the assassins will still likely target him. And I want to add I did say earlier that it would be in prots best interest to lie about the number of assassins no matter what because it might trick the assassins into voting someone else.

So I still believe that prot is an assassin, however I think there's a good chance coag is mafia. If prot used his 1 dt check last night and hit a red I think the obvious play for him would be to role claim dt. Then if we lynch that player he called out and its right he can ask for medic protection.

On April 13 2011 16:13 Lemonwalrus wrote:


Your claim, (the detective one) showed that the only people in the game that knew you weren't an assassin were the actual assassins, since you put in a fake number of assassins. If this reasoning were true, you would not be afraid of assassins killing you tomorrow night.

On April 13 2011 16:30 Lemonwalrus wrote:
His statement doesn't make sense if you replace we with the town. Not only that, he specifically differentiates 'we' from 'the town' when he says "we would announce our checks to town"

I doubt he actually scum slipped because slips like that are probably exceedingly rare, I just want him to explain it.

On April 13 2011 15:57 Barundar wrote:
Oh dramaz!

First of all we knew protac was going to do something drastic to not get killed tonight. Personally I'm not buying the whole "it was safer for me to claim assassin than DT", claiming assassin is painting a huge target on his back. The reason people jumped on Pandain was because of his plan of a non-town mayor, and because his sole platform was the DT claim. We saw from Protac's campaign that he was quite capable of making a case for himself more than just his role claim.

It seems all too convenient to me that he would
A) Fake claim assassin over DT
B) Find mafia in the first go when he doesn't get elected into office.
C) Roleclaims instead of building a case, on day 2.

I found Coag to be one of the most pro town players, quite unlike the analysis provided by our "DT". That said, I'm looking forward to Coags response.

On April 13 2011 16:20 AirbladeOrange wrote:
I'm not necessarily against lynching coagulation, but how is he definitely a better kill than M0nsterChef, OriginalName, or GMarshal?

At first I didn't know what to make of Coag because he seemed all over the place. Now, after Protac's analysis I certainly agree he is very suspicious. But I'm just not convinced he is more dangerous than any of the other suspicious people. They all seem on the same level to me.

On April 13 2011 16:32 aidnai wrote:


drawn out which mafia? you've put out coag, he hasn't flipped yet, but having read his posts myself he was not high on my suspect list.

Also, 'mix it up a bit' sounds retarded. You coulda won the mayor campaign easily with zero claims, most townies were complaining about how stupid all the other campaigns were and EVEN AFTER CLAIMING BLACK you came in an easy 3rd place...

It's definitely suspicious that IF you are an assassin, this is your only viable play today. Even more so that there wasn't actually a good reason to claim assassin in the first place as a DT. I think that, as you said yourself, you got assassin, didn't like the role, and tried to make the best of the situation.

IN ANY CASE, I'm not going to let this prevent scumhunting at least for the sake of our vigilantes. i.e. even if we lynch coag, the remaining vigis might have something to go on.

On April 13 2011 16:46 Barundar wrote:
What this really comes down to is that protact and coag can't be on the same team. One of them is lieing. Congrats to us, we are getting us a scum.

As for who of them to kill first, I'm going to go with my read on coag, which has been pro town so far, despite what protact has written. Protact is writing a long story to explain his actions, and I'm going to go with the simplest explanation: He has been lieing and is now throwing another gambit to avoid dieing.

Both the simplest explanation and my read points away from coag being scum, that's how I will vote.

On April 13 2011 16:58 Mig wrote:


He has nothing to gain from this as scum I agree, but he has a lot to gain from this if hes an assassin. In fact this is literally his only chance at surviving.

Prot could be 100% right and coag is scum. But the problem is no matter what I feel like the best play for him will always be to role claim dt. However, if he was going to lie and role claim it makes sense that he would pick the person he felt was most likely to actually be scum.

So basically if anyone wants to lynch coag that's fine but use prots arguments as the reason do not consider his role claim, there is just too high of a chance that he could be lying about it.

On April 13 2011 17:26 Mig wrote:
Prot I do really want to know though if you were a dt and you got a green back with your check what was your plan? You would still have to lie to have any hope for surviving.

I am fine with people lynching coag but I want everyone to make their decision based on reason and not on a claim that has such a good chance of being untrue.

On April 13 2011 17:06 Barundar wrote:
Lol now "It's convenient that you find scum in first go when it's the only way you could survive" translates into "scum is hiding well"? Nice try

I like how you keep blowing your own trumpet. I read your case, and your main point is he only defended kavdragon before the lynch was sent in, and that he couldn't point to who he wanted to instead. I didn't specify which lurker I wanted killed myself either, but like coag I got pretty fucking pissed off when I woke up and saw Kavdragon had flipped green.

But what it really comes down to is not both of you can be town. One of you is lieing. It's beneficial to trade scum for town 1 for 1, so town wins in any case. Whats up to town to decide is whether we use a lynch on one of you, or just let you die to assassins and lynch coag depending on what you flip.

On April 13 2011 18:17 aidnai wrote:
hmm... lots of people missing from this conversation. I'm gonna give it a rest and see what's up tomorrow.

SCUMMY LURKER LIST
latrommi
Milkyst <- 1 post + 1 vote lol
jaminz
serejai
rean

none of these players are interacting with the game in any meaningful way. Scared of imba scumtells much?

depending on activity levels as today progresses, we might get a nice vig shot on one of these, I'm thinking milkyst.
His only post proves he's been reading the thread (look at bolded part), but all he can say is he wants to lynch redFF because he's a 'little bit suspicious'. 1 post and 1 vote per day keeps the modkill away right?

goodnight everybody.

On April 14 2011 00:32 GMarshal wrote:
This is a waste of a lynch if coag is what he claims, a vet.

I have an alternate suggestion, ignore the two, have a vigi hit coag tonight, if his claim is false then coag is dead, wham we got scum, if he is telling the truth we have a confirmed townie.

On April 14 2011 01:01 GMarshal wrote:
In a setup with a known liar claiming dt and finding scum you lynch the accuser. Lynching the accused tells you nothing about the accuser. You always lynch the accuser first. Add in the rule of Lynch all Liars you have the person you should be lynching first.

Coag has also claimed a role that is provable with a night hit. Shoot him and get a confirmed townie to rally around! Mafia has to waste hits killing him, medics can prot him and we make the mafia uncomfortable. Seems like a better investment than lynching and moving on.

On April 14 2011 01:58 redFF wrote:
Why we should not lynch coagulation.
Think about it for a second. Why in christs name would a dt claim assassin? If protact was really dt, he could have just run for mayor normally, got voted in, and then said he was dt now he was protected.
Im tired of protact claiming black, claiming blue and just serving up a bunch of fucking wifom and derailing the thread. We should concentrate on lynching scum. And the most certain scum lynch seems to be m0nsterChef.
Since ON got replaced by LSB and LSB seems like a long time player. I'm guessing he could be valuable to town and we shouldn't lynch him today.

On April 14 2011 03:46 Barundar wrote:
The only thing that really concerns me with lynching coag now is we might waste another lynch, and day of scum hunting, but I guess the possible benefits outweights this risk.

On April 14 2011 05:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:


If you think coag is red, how is shooting him "wasting" a vigi hit?

On April 14 2011 06:19 Mr. Wiggles wrote:



Ok, so I just got home from school (last class of semester, yay!), only to open up the thread, see who died, and find 15 new pages of information. So, there's been a lot of debate on Flamewheel's DT claim, and how he fingered Coag as red, and I'd like to add my own thoughts to it.

Information available to me:

-FW claimed Assassin Day 1, in an attempt to secure the mayorship
-FW is a veteran, and lauded analyzer
-FW has now claimed DT, saying he checked Coag and that he is Mafia
-There are no Framers
-Coag has claimed Veteran, and is adamantly defending himself

Thoughts:

I'm personally inclined to believe that at this point, FW is either an Assassin or a Detective. I'm not going to entertain the idea that he's a Townie or Mafia. If he's a Townie, then this is very anti-town play, because he could have easily claimed the mayorship without any kind of claim, and now he's faking being a DT. That would mean he's involved in two major lies, but hey, he'd probably be having fun :p. If he's mafia, then this doesn't make much sense either, as again, he could have easily claimed the mayorship without any claim, and then everything that follows would be complete insanity, though if he were somehow mafia, it would follow closely to my thoughts on if he were an assassin.

So, without further ado:

Case 1: Flamewheel is an Assassin

Then, his claim day 1 is a very strong power play against the other assassins. He would assure himself immunity from them, while also having complete security from accidental hits from mafia or vigilantes. There is nothing illogical about a Black trying this.

However, he never made it into office. This then leaves him in a bit of a tight spot. Mafia have no reason to shoot him if he's black, so he'll probably live through Night 1, but he needs to find a way to live at least past night 2.

So what can he do? Claim detective, and put his strong analytical skills to work. A lot of people seem to be mistaking that just because FW claimed he used a check, he must be DT because Assassins can't use a check Night 1, without considering the possibility that he used no check at all (Looking at you, new players). All game long, I've had to read how in awe people are of his scum hunting skills, so considering this, it would be relatively easy for him to pick out at least one potential scum candidate and make a case against him, using the fake DT check as extra leverage.

This fits in with his motivations of self-preservation. If he's wrong, so what? He just gets killed which, and this is important, he would have anyways after claiming Assassin AND Detective. If he's right, then he can potentially attract medic attention, and live through the night, which is his optimal move at the moment.

Case 2: Flamewheel is a Detective

Then, according to him at least, his claim day 1 was a draw to get mafia and other assassins to attack him, so he would have more information to work with. However, in doing so, he most likely lessened his chances of actually making it in to office. So, this is not illogical, but is more of a choice of information over security.

So, as he would have expected, he did not make it into office, but was free to use his check last night, on Coag, with it coming back as mafia. Now, he needs to build his case against him, but in order to get town to actually believe him, he has to claim his real role, Detective.

This will allow him to lynch a scum, and draw medic protection so he can continue checking. It also dissuades Assassins from hitting him, so he can continue to help the town.

Why Coag's Flip Will Reveal Nothing Useful About Flamewheel:

Let's say that Coag flips Town (Green/Blue). Then FW is lying, and is an Assassin. His gambit has failed, and now the other Assassins will kill him overnight. This reveals nothing to town, only other Assassins.

Let's say that Coag flips Mafia. This reveals nothing to us about FW. All it shows is that he might be a DT, or he's a good analyst. We don't know anything about his alignment, only that he can pick out scum. (Which is useful but has dangers, addressed later).

My Opinion:

I'm personally inclined to think that Flamewheel is an Assassin. While both scenarios are sound and have nothing inconsistent in them, I find the first one to be more likely. After a failed claim and run at the mayor, this is exactly how a good player like FW would have to play it in order to have any further chance at winning. If he were a DT, there are many different ways he could have played out Day 1 and now Day 2, and pretending to be an assassin seems to be one of the oddest. This means that his case on Coag is entirely analysis, and should be treated as such, though keep in mind this does not necessarily lessen the case on him.

How we should proceed:

Lynching Coag?

Lynching Coag is only an option if we have been convinced that he is a member of the mafia. If you are only convinced because of the claim, but not by analysis, then I urge you to reconsider your decision. If you are convinced by the analysis, then nothing is really amiss. The only oddities I see with Coag is that he hasn't seemed quite as aggressive and spammy as earlier games (The same applies to Jackal), so this might be due to his claim, or to his being mafia, both are possible. In my opinion, we should consider if there are other scummy targets who we can lynch, as Coag has claimed Veteran. Like GMarshal (and others) have said, we can use a vigilante shot on Coag tonight to see if he is Red or a Veteran. This might require the Vigilante to claim, in order to assure its authenticity, but then we either have two confirmed townies, or two confirmed scum (If the shot is faked). This is debatable however, so I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on it.

Medic Protecting Flamewheel?

Again, this is debatable. I don't think we should lynch him really, as we are either lynching a Detective or an Assassin, both of which are bad for town (The Assassin less so). So, we are left with the decision of either leaving him to die by Assassins or Mafia, or protecting him to continue to analyze and possibly check. He'll be targeted by either or both factions because of his two claims. Assassins will hit him as they think he is an Assassin, or Mafia will hit him as they think he is a Detective. So, should we protect him? From my perspective, no. We will not know his role until he either flips, or is investigated himself and that information is made public. This means that we can only trust in him so far as his analysis and scum hunting goes. However, as I mentioned earlier, there is an inherent danger in this. Flamewheel has a reputation as a good analyst. If he is an assassin, he can very easily analyze the players he believes to be the other Assassins and put a spin on the analysis so that his final conclusion is Mafia. This entails that he'll be using town to kill his competition, wasting our lynches. This is the first reason for not protecting him, the next being that it won't do him any good anyways. Right now, he is a prime target for both the Mafia and the other Assassins, and there is a high likelihood that they will stack, when there is a separate 3-5 KP that might be aimed at him, from the mafia spending one, and anywhere between two to four Assassins all wanting to kill him. A medic protecting him is a waste. If people want to increase his chances of surviving the night, a much better choice is to place a watcher on him, as then we may net ourselves a Mafia and collaterally, the names of potentially several Assassins.

So Who Do We Lynch?

At this point in time, I don't know. What we should do, is pull back for a minute and start scumhunting. Several people have created several analysis, and I'm sure there are more that can be made if the town starts actively analyzing. At the very least, this will give us more information, as everyone will either analyze, or will be analyzed, giving us something to work with in the coming days. Hopefully we can find someone worth lynching in the next day and a half, and if not, we may be forced to reconsider the Coag vs. Flamewheel debate.