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TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 161

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Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
April 19 2011 06:40 GMT
#3201
Guess we can let them both explain themselves first.
Bartundar
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
April 19 2011 09:28 GMT
#3202
[image loading]
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
Rean
Profile Joined February 2011
Netherlands808 Posts
April 19 2011 09:29 GMT
#3203
Guess that's it then. Good luck town. Don't fuck this up.
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4415 Posts
April 19 2011 13:03 GMT
#3204
I guess I called Rean wrong...
A few things have kind of clicked for me the in the last day.

-I believe Kita's watcher call. I've been backing him since the beginning as a pro-townie.

-I believe that Bum is town. It is likely that he is blue.

-I am a regular townie. If I was visiting M0nsterChef then I must be a Nosy Neighbour.

-M0nsterchef probably claimed that he was roleblocked because there was significant doubt on his watcher claim. The roleblock claim was his way to get people to believe him.

HOWEVER the night's events have brought me to two very strong realisations:

Firstly, I was wrong about Rean.

Secondly and more importantly, Chaoser has lied about his Vig claim
Sucker for nostalgia
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4415 Posts
April 19 2011 13:10 GMT
#3205
Why I believe Chaoser has lied:

On night 1, there were 8 people killed.
4 were from Mafia, as confirmed by BB
On April 16 2011 14:31 BrownBear wrote:
I intentionally did not reduce mafia KP tonight because I didn't feel it was fair to punish them for Coagulation's idiocy.

3 were from Assassins.

1 was from a vigilante. GGQ was killed that night and he was a vigilante.

Last night, despite there being only 4 Mafia remaining and therefore 2 KP, three people died.
The assassins have left the game, there were no modkills so the third hit HAD to have come from a Vigilante.

Pandain was a vig and is dead. GGQ was a vig and is dead. A third vigilante supplied one of the kills last night. It is extremely unlikely that there are 4 vigs.

Conclusion: Chaoser is lying about his roleclaim.
Sucker for nostalgia
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4415 Posts
April 19 2011 13:15 GMT
#3206
And is mafia. Voting for chaoser.
Sucker for nostalgia
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
April 19 2011 13:47 GMT
#3207
^That's how real scum play. I still need to read into it but there are a few things I can say for certain.

Kita is indeed a watcher. This is 100%, because I am a blue. We have a LOT of blue roles, if I am counting correctly. Two roleblockers now makes sense, though I am curious why only 1 claimed day 1. Better just ignore that part.

Also, kita did you say who we all visited yet? I can't find the roleclaim of chaoser's that dropbear is talking about.

DropBear (unfortunately for him) is most likely scum, especially if he is claiming nosy neighbor to chaoser's roleblock claim(? did he do that).

But I feel there is a gap of posts im missing for everyone to come to these conclusions.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
April 19 2011 13:51 GMT
#3208
Yeah dropbear, one fatal flaw Im catching here. Kita never said it was chaoser that we visited, how would a nosy neighbor know that?

NOSY NEIGHBOR:
You happen to be an adrenaline junkie, and a great lover of schadenfreude. Any time you hear someone dying, you have to go over and check it out! Every night, you will involuntarily visit a random person who has received a hit from some source, be it Mafia, Assassin, or Vigilante. You will watch the person die from a safe location, laugh, possibly go down and draw on their face after the killer leaves, then go home. You are really good at hiding, so you will never be caught by the killer. However, you're pretty shitty at stealthily breaking into people's houses, so any trackers or watchers will see you visit that person.


GG bro (unless I am completely blind to both kita's claim on chaoser or chaoser's RB claim)
Together but separate, like oatmeal
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4415 Posts
April 19 2011 13:55 GMT
#3209
I didn't say you went after chaoser?
On April 16 2011 14:14 chaoser wrote:
i can not count, sorry

also, i shot the shit out of LSB...still can't believe he's not mafia.

VIGI CLAIM-ED

This is chaoser's roleclaim.
Sucker for nostalgia
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
April 19 2011 14:14 GMT
#3210
Pandain died night 1, so he couldn't have been vig'd. I'm very confused, maybe you should go over your facts again. Kita said you visited someone, and you are claiming nosy neighbor.

1) Kita never said it was chaoser, so how would you as an NN, know that.
2) NN only visited people who were hit. Chaoser hasn't indicated that he was hit.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
April 19 2011 14:20 GMT
#3211
Oh nevermind you said pandain was a vig not he was vig'd lol.

The other vig should claim then so I can start to believe you. Mafia's KP should be at 2, so another vig would be there. But 8 people died night 2, 4 for mafia (BB confirmed) 3 for assasins, and 1 for LSB. I'd find it more likely that there are 4 vigis rather then one unnaccountable KP.

BrownBear, was mafia's KP modified in anyway last night?
Together but separate, like oatmeal
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
April 19 2011 14:22 GMT
#3212
DropBear is indeed lying. The person I watched was not hit. Thus, it is impossible for the nosy neighbor to visit.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
April 19 2011 14:43 GMT
#3213
On April 19 2011 23:22 kitaman27 wrote:
DropBear is indeed lying. The person I watched was not hit. Thus, it is impossible for the nosy neighbor to visit.

Boom, headshot. What about tonight kita?
Bartundar
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
April 19 2011 14:49 GMT
#3214
On April 19 2011 23:43 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2011 23:22 kitaman27 wrote:
DropBear is indeed lying. The person I watched was not hit. Thus, it is impossible for the nosy neighbor to visit.

Boom, headshot. What about tonight kita?


I'd prefer to keep that secret for now. Was anyone role blocked last night?
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
April 19 2011 14:50 GMT
#3215
Well I wasn't
Bartundar
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
April 19 2011 14:52 GMT
#3216
DarthTheinAn

Just going to do a small analysis on this little nugget here. Completely ignored throughout this game, except by kitaman, a 100% town. Scum much?
On April 11 2011 08:20 DarthThienAn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 07:29 Kavdragon wrote:
As part of my plan to help newer people out, I present the first part of my guide to analysis. I was hoping to post this after i had finished the whole thing, but it would seem that we could use it already.


      Over the my past four games, I've had the opporunity to participate with scum teams twice. The experiance of being on a scum team was really helpful in identifying ways of finding scum, because I got to know how scum teams work; the challenges they are faced with, the reasons why scum still act scummy even though they know to avoid it, and so forth. Now that I'm not scum, I'd like to pass these things on. So without further ado, here's my two cents on scum.



#1: Know your enemy:
If you want to figure out how to find scum, you have to see things from their perspective.


      When I first started playing mafia, I was confused how a scumtell would ever work. If there was such a thing as a scum tell, why wouldn't mafia just NOT do that thing? I didn't understand why mafia would NOT participate as much as the town, or why they would try to not contribute, while looking like they really are. Then I got on a scum team, and i figured it out: Scum tells are things that are extremely difficult to avoid even when you know about them.


When you are on a scum team, there are two key factors that alter your play: You are on a team, and you know who is scum. These are both things that you cannot avoid. Because of this, scum tells can be built off of them.


Because you are on a team, you will be talking to the other members of your team. This takes away a significant portion of your time, especially if you had team members that were as funny as mine were. Beginner scum players want to look like they are contributing because they are not good at hiding a lack of contribution yet, so they actually try to contribute. Unfortunately they don't have as much time to evaluate what is happening and what is the best plan for town at the moment. Because of this, they fall back on giving general advice, and give no real opinions on the current situation. Better/Veteran scum players actually try to look like they are contributing, but are really good at hiding the fact that they aren't. Activity can be increased to accommodated this, or excuses can be given for not contributing as much, so it can be somewhat unreliable, but it is still a good hint to work off of. (Especially when you are dealing with older players)

The second difference between you and scum is that they know who is scum. Obvious, no? But it has implications that are ridiculously hard to shake. When you are scum, it's really, hard to form opinions on who looks scummy. I don't mean that it's hard to say "Incog looks scummy". I mean that it's hard to actually believe that someone looks/is scum, because you know that they aren't. This is compounded by the fact that you talking to your scum buddies when you otherwise would be going over people's posts trying to figure out who looks scummy.


To recap, the things you are looking for are a lack of contribution, and a lack of clear opinions (especially when it comes to the alignment of someone). What does this look like?


Well, the lack of contribution for new scum players will look like people posting a lot of one liners and other stuff that shows that they are there, but aren't actually contributing new ideas/opinions to the discussion. If there's a player that's just sitting around posting things like "I agree" or making non-committal statements about the situation, there's a large chance they are doing something else. It makes no sense for a townie to be around posting on the thread all day but not spending time to contribute. As players get better, the lack of contribution becomes harder to spot. Some will disguise it with relevant and helpful information. On the surface it looks like they are helping people out, but if the knowledge is common, then what have they helped with? Nothing. I'm not an advanced scum player by any means and I've not played with any, so I can't inform you as well as I'd like in this area, but ask foolishness if you have more questions.

The lack of strong opinions of people is one of my favorite ways to hunt scum, because I know how hard it is to avoid it as scum. It usually manifests itself in contradiction, and will something like this: A player says that Qatol looks really scummy, and then a day later votes Qatol for mayor. When you are scum, you're thinking about what will be beneficial for your team, so you will support a lynch at one point, then forgot that you did, and say something contradictory later. A player says that they have a town read on someone, and then a while later they vote for their lynch without giving a reason for the change of mind. Contradictions like these are awesome when you catch them. Another one: Someone says that the mayor is overrated, and not that powerful, and proceeds to talk about nothing other than the mayor for the next day.


The next section is on analysis and arguing/pushing for your target.

I agree.

No really though, this is decent advice. I think the biggest thing is that you know who's mafia and who's not; the best way to find mafia is to connect people - get one scum and get em all.

For me, as a scum it's been hard to paint someone else as scum - be wary of people who try to imply things, but don't go after them in a big way. All WIFOM of course, but scum like to stay under the radar, so watch out for people that do things like that. Also watch out for people that don't commit to anything. These are pretty good "scum tells" I think.

And in my experience, just because someone posts a lot, doesn't make them not scum. So unless you're a blue and have reason to, trust nobody!

--
Apologies for not posting sooner, for some reason, I thought the game started later~ I'll catch up eventually... busy with school and stuff though >>


Don't really have much to say here. Dr. H got on Kav's ass for this stuff, while darth is heartily agreeing. Darth is a smart person, he knows townie advice when he sees it. And he would know kav is town, why not get some cred and add your own shit it too? Nothing really scummy, but not much to make him town either. You will find that is a rarity with darth.


On April 12 2011 09:23 DarthThienAn wrote:
Back when I was mayor, you didn't get told who your bodyguards were. Assuming this is still true, there's nothing to worry about there.

DrH, the only problem I have with you being mayor is that you're guaranteeing us no accountability. The "I do what I want" attitude as mayor won't help us win the game. Sure, you dodge the influence of the mafia, but that also means you're relying solely on yourself to win the game...

Might switch my vote to GMarshal, though I'm tempted to just be a non-vote by staying off the two candidates. Don't know who he is, so I'd rather take my chances with him as a mafia mayor than DrH as a mafia mayor. Let's see though ^^


This is funny, he doesn't like DrH as mayor and prefers GM. Understandable unless you are a super scumhunter like me. But he is 'tempted to just be a non-vote'. When mafia is tempted to do something, it usually leads to them doing it. And darth keeps his vote on pandain the whole time lol. I find this funny for more then just attempting to blend into the shadows. He noticeably is attempting to distance himself from GM. During the period between I gave my analysis of GM, and the point where he was lynched, darth said jack shit about GM and his opinion. Distancing my pallies.

On April 12 2011 11:26 DarthThienAn wrote:
@GMarshal

Me real busy yo.

Show nested quote +
On April 12 2011 09:30 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
How am I relying solely on myself to win the game? I mean obviously town discussion will influence me but I'd never adopt a policy of "mayor must vote with the majority"

The mayor is not the only player in this game. Every town aligned player must bring it on themselves to do their own analysis and help guide the discussion toward killing scum. Just because I'm not going to vote how everyone else wants me to vote does not = town relying on just me.

If you sheep me and rely only on what I say and do that's a choice YOU make. Don't make that choice. I'm making the choice not to sheep with the majority and do my own scumhunting. Everyone in this game should do the same thing.

I agree that you shouldn't blindly sheep, but the way I read your post, "me flying solo" was just the impression I got. Maybe you meant differently though.

I'll probably make one last stop to the thread before I clock out, leaning GMarshal atm.

Show nested quote +
On April 12 2011 11:06 Coagulation wrote:
Fuck no i dont

I swear, it's like a Bill Murray reincarnate o.o


lol, he keeps his vote on DH of course.


On April 15 2011 08:59 DarthThienAn wrote:
follow the leader!

Yea, looking at the thread, I don't think flamewheel is a DT. Going with LSB because I'd rather not see Coag lynched solely on flamey's call.


I'd post a funny meme right here, but this is serious analysis. He had his vote on Coag before, and chaoser noted that one post darth had, but then he destroys any town read he would have garnered with the above post.

Now darth is definitely more inactive this game then he should be, so let's go into voting history, as that should give us more.

For mayor he voted pandain, as I stated before. A "non-vote" he says.
Now for the first lynch, he does indeed start off by voting coag. Ok, that's some cred, right? Well guess who voted coag right after? Serejai. Oops. Later, he switches to LSB, when a whole voting shift occurs. Good for him!
Then next lynch he puts his vote on DH, wut lol. He hasn't voted since.




So can I say with the same sureness of GM that darth is scum? Not really, but he is PROBABLY scum. He would be a great lynch as soon as we sort the current issues out. Also the kills spell him out for sure, he was never a shining star when it came to picking hits. I think he has some medic paranoia.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
April 19 2011 14:58 GMT
#3217
Guess my scumlist is down to

DropBear
DarthThienAn
Conversion
Kenpachi

Would put jaminz up there if AO didn't completely discard the option -.-
Bartundar
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
April 19 2011 15:01 GMT
#3218
On April 19 2011 23:20 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh nevermind you said pandain was a vig not he was vig'd lol.

The other vig should claim then so I can start to believe you. Mafia's KP should be at 2, so another vig would be there. But 8 people died night 2, 4 for mafia (BB confirmed) 3 for assasins, and 1 for LSB. I'd find it more likely that there are 4 vigis rather then one unnaccountable KP.

BrownBear, was mafia's KP modified in anyway last night?


No, mafia had their normal KP.
SUNSFANNED
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
April 19 2011 15:03 GMT
#3219
DropBear has had some weird interactions with Kenpachi. Might be worth looking into further.

DrH you are quickly losing any town cred you once had. Absent day 2, pushing suspicion on bum right after I claim watcher and pushing a weird policy lynch on Barundar. What happened to our spammy leader?
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
April 19 2011 15:06 GMT
#3220
lol...did dropbear really say i was mafia? Hilarious. Me, the one who

1) pushed hardest for prot's election
2) Was on GM's ass since day 1
3) Immediately voted Coag when prot claimed and believed him, fighting vehemently for coag's lynch
4) Even said throughout the game that I thought LSB/ON was mafia thus had the motive to shoot

lol...nice try dropbear.

-I am a regular townie. If I was visiting M0nsterChef then I must be a Nosy Neighbour.


lol...kita never said he was watching monsterchef and nosy neighbor randomly visits so you wouldn't know anyway, FAIL. Not to mention we usually lynch miller/nosy neighbors anyway since we can't prove a nosy neighbor/miller claim and they could very well be mafia. Unless the person has been playing extremely pro town we gonna lynch lol. You have not and you got caught in a lie. Lawl.
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
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