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On March 25 2011 08:56 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 08:53 deconduo wrote:On March 25 2011 08:44 annul wrote:
what?
are you just trolling or do you seriously think that its 50% chance for a "good" outcome in the actual game? No, that wasn't a serious analysis. I was merely pointing out that I too can pull figures from my ass and say the maths are sound if they add up. By electing a town mayor from the item game you do increase the chance of town winning it. That is obvious, but your other arguments are terrible. -Electing mafia as mayor essentially is an autoloss in that case -Electing a black is bad too. People are less inclined to lynch a mayor unless there is a lot more evidence against them, so it will increase his survivability. Finally, and this is the big bit, we give up having a 100% clear mayor with a circle behind him. argue directly against my math, then. don't try to skirt off with some flawed argument by analogy. tell me exactly how my math is wrong, not that it is possible to come up with wrong math. its quite possible. my math, however, is not wrong. "electing a red mayor in item game is an auto loss." it would be very bad, yes, but not an auto-loss. but that is a 1/6 chance to happen. giving mayor to the black would be bad but only insofar as its bad for green to not have it. black gains nothing, relative to item game powers, with mayorship.
Did you not read my post? Blacks DO gain with mayorship, as it makes them a bit more lynch proof simply because people are much less inclined to lynch the mayor.
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On March 25 2011 09:46 annul wrote:
but before this happens, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER in this game should take a good look at who is actively opposing me. if/when i flip green, you have at least a handful of scum on your hands.
i say this not to attempt to persuade people i am green or even that anyone in particular is scum. just remember who is fighting this tooth and nail.
Regardless of your alignment, that sort of statement is pure bullshit. Why on earth would scum or 3rd party want bum as mayor? They are the ones who will be supporting you, not the other way around.
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On March 25 2011 09:46 annul wrote:
[b]ONE BLUE IS WORTH MORE TO THE TOWN THAN SACRIFICING HIMSELF TO GET RID OF ONE SCUM./b]
Another retarded argument. If bum is lying and a blue claims, how is that sacrificing himself? He will have someone to back him up, and won't get lynched. He will be elected mayor and his partner will have a medic protecting him. We get to lynch a scum day one and a blue mayor.
If bum is telling the truth we have a blue mayor.
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Imagine the following setup:
16 townies
4 3rd party
2 mafia
Everyone has a PR of some sorts. I would be very happy as town in that setup.
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On March 25 2011 09:56 annul wrote:
several on town: bum claimed blue without any CC. Pretty obvious that he's the best mayor candidate unless someone ccs or something major happens. If he is scum it would be pretty dumb of blues to not cc at this point.
me: LOLOLOL ITEMZ
several on town: OMFG YOU MUST BE AN IDIOT
Fixed for you
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On March 25 2011 09:59 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 09:57 Tackster wrote:
OH MY GOD...
Can't have 4 blue hatters cos blues don't have KP.... Check the OP AGAIN
And ONCE AGAIN:
You haven't answered my question
I asked explain how he isnt confirmed blue without ccs
AGAIN you implied he IS blue I don't think you've played here before, but on TL mafia, roles like hatter, vig, don't count as "KP". KP here is nightly kills a team or player, usually scum/sk, get to use nightly. Killing abilities are not included in this KP number.
In the op is says:
Of course, the police can’t actually kill people, but they have their own way of helping.
I assume that is what he is referencing.
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On March 25 2011 10:01 annul wrote:
ho
ly
fuck
ing
shit.
do you just simply refuse to recognize the potential for blues to be worth more than 1 scum death? notice how not a SINGLE PLAYER has argued against that point, despite bringing it up repeatedly. please, decon. counter that point directly. please. dont straw man, dont ad hominem. tell me, is it not possible that a blue's life is worth more than that of ONE scum?
You still don't get it. In order for a single blue to die, mafia have to expose 4 of their team. Even in that case, theres a 50/50 chance of us lynching one of the 4 mafia claimants first. If we do lynch a blue first, then we now have 4 confirmed mafia and 3 blues that we can attempt to keep alive with medics.
There is no way on earth I can see mafia being so bad that they would try to pull this shit.
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On March 25 2011 10:06 annul wrote:
no, mafia do not need to expose 4 of their team for a single blue to die.
Yes they do.
Case where bum is mafia:
-Blue ccs with backup from friend. Now either
-Bum gets lynched and blue is elected mayor
-One of bum's partners claims blue also. In this case another real blue claims. Now either
-Bum + partner get lynched, elect blue as mayor and medic on the other one
-Mafia add another claimant.
Repeat until 4 blues + 4 mafia have claimed. It is the same thing if bum is town, just the other way around.
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On March 25 2011 10:16 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 10:13 GMarshal wrote:On March 25 2011 10:12 Tackster wrote:
annul is basically confirmed town at this point.... We're probably gonna have to string him along...
I see typing injuries in my future In no way is he confirmed town, disagreeing with the majority and opposing a pro-town plan means nothing (check XXXVII for proof of that) FYI i STILL think your mini town circle plan was retarded and anti-town in 37.
I now declare anything annul has said in this thread invalid.
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On March 25 2011 10:41 Coagulation wrote:
kenpachi is useless everygame
Kevconsim generally isnt an allstar contributor either
Amber and beneather should know better
BrownBear hasn't been doing much either, but he's been like that in the last 2? games I've played with him as well.
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On March 25 2011 10:46 GMarshal wrote:
While I'm asking stupid questions,
@coag assume night started right now and you had a medic protect, who would you use it on and why?
@Decon, you suddenly have the power to form a town circle with three other players, who would you pick and for what reason?
@Inactives, what are your exuses for not posting? Are you ready for me to lynch you for the greater glory of the town?
-Tack. I know him well, and I'm like 90% sure he's town.
-Kav. He's thinks he's better than he is, but he still is good.
-Meapak or bum probably.
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On March 25 2011 11:20 tnkted wrote:
lets give blues some more time to talk about whether to CC or not. Lets vote at the last possible minute to give oruselves as much time as we can.
Waiting until the last minute to vote is a recipe for disaster in most cases. You can always unvote if necessary.
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On March 25 2011 11:23 GMarshal wrote:
I for one will also post my votes here, I thought that was awesome in XXXVII and I urge you all to do the same
In the meantime, why dont we keep asking questions?
chaoser if you had a DT check who would you check right now?
deconduo what is your favorite unit in starcraft, (or starcraft 2)?
Defiler  Swarm, Plague, infinite energy. What more could you ask for.
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On March 26 2011 07:07 Kenpachi wrote:
does anyone have thoughts on my first analysis in like 5 mafia games? :S
It was pretty good, I found myself agreeing to a lot of the points.
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Seeing as bum is pretty much guaranteed the election at this point, its time to start thinking about lynch targets properly. Here are my opinions.
iGrok - Kenpachi's analysis is actually pretty good
Amber, Brownbear - hardcore lurking, as veterans they should be much more vocal
orgolove - his parroting of annul doesn't paint a good picture of him, but I don't think its enough to go on yet.
At this point, I don't think annul is mafia. At the very least, we have better targets available. Similarly, lemonwalrus has been playing like a standard newbie as was said above. He may or may not be mafia, but he's actually posting so no need to lynch him yet.
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On March 26 2011 07:27 Kenpachi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2011 07:16 deconduo wrote:On March 26 2011 07:07 Kenpachi wrote:
does anyone have thoughts on my first analysis in like 5 mafia games? :S It was pretty good, I found myself agreeing to a lot of the points. What didnt you agree with?
Just that one or two of the 'spam' posts were justified imo. They might not have contributed but it was better for them to be posted than not.
-Helping Lanaia
-Explaining vote in the IRC poll
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On March 26 2011 07:32 tnkted wrote:
Sounds good LW, I just want to know that bum has a list handy before I post anything about the plan.
Tack is asleep and probably won't be up for ~6-8 hours. If he's not awake after that I can get some cold water to help though >:D
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On March 26 2011 09:39 Beneather wrote:
Wait then we would now who to lynch because the winner of the item game would be aligned with either scum town or 3rd Party and we can just lynch the winner of town doesn't get the items right?
You need to start posting more. You only have 3 posts up until now.
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Jackal is mafia. I've been talking with several pro-town spirits and they all agree that he's mafia. Ignore the lack of evidence against him, this is 100% proof that he's mafia...
The two scum in the item game will try and push whoever they feel they can get away with pushing. They will agree with X being scum no matter what. Jackal just tunnels whoever he feels like, Lemon is new, and Annul has said he has no read on Tack.
Pretty strong case there.
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EPT
