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Where's your confirmed list? I think I know who I want to move but I'd like to make sure that they are on it. Also, i might just switch myself to make them waste a MC. If i do that however I will chose one of the following.
tell me if this is a good list, i'll only take advice from confirmed blues/townies:
OriginalName
Amber[LighT]
orgolove
Although I am considering putting ilovejohn and pandain on the list.
Coag, i'd feel free to use your gun tonight because they can't puppet us both. Right now mafia has an extremely target rich environment and they only get 2 kills. Black gets 1 kill as well but.. well, i'll talk about them in a minute.
Basically:
If red kills both blues, and mind controls coag, they can kill either myself or one of the analyzers.
If red kills myself and coag, they can kill one of the blues.
If red kills either me or coag, they open themselves up to dying through bus switching/coag's gun.
Regardless, we can be certain that red is going to try to MC either me or coag. Nothing else makes sense. We have the most dangerous known abilities on the field, and are therefore the biggest threats. The correllary to this is the fact that we are also the juiciest targets for MC.
Therefore, both me and coag have to use our abilities. They can't block us both.
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Yes, use all your powers. My confirmed list is these 5.
1) Bum 
2) Cube
3) Coag IG obv
4) Jackal ^
5) Eiii - Cube's handiwork, 99% confirmed
I'm doing analysis on RoL/pandain, and it has some ties to orgolove, so if you leave him out. Also ON voted lemon? I wouldnt be so quick to condemn him.
Here are all nonconfirmed and my brief overview.
1. RebirthOfLeGenD Pandain (replacement) - Well I'm not sure about pandain, but he obviously came into the game without reading, so he may be innocent in his ignorance. The biggest thing is RoL at some point (around page 50) saying the exact same thing I did about orgolove. After that orgo didn't reply to it. Town
3. OriginalName - Reading through his posts, I've got a pretty good feeling he is black.
4. Kenpachi - Kenpachi is rough pick, because he is incredibly useless to town (which seems weird because you can easily remedy that with an analysis on some no count poster and call them scum), but he is probably red
5. deconduo - Hope he's town
6. Kavdragon - black He's totally in his "LD" persona if you will. He certainly is helping town, but he's got a win condition so just let him do his thing.
11. orgolove - SCUM Easy.
13. Meapak_Ziphh Townblack? Well he's been really solid on his analyses, and kav compliments him openly. Leaning black because he seems to be trying really hard to avoid looking at kav.
15. kevconsim - I really dont know, wish he was worth the effort to analyze, im just gonna guess lazy town.
16. Mr. Wiggles - town Looking at his posts, I just see town. Proper analysis should be done though. I'd have taken his FBI thing seriously if he gave ANY thoughts on scum
18. GGQ - town? Do analysis!
19. ilovejonn - scum general consensus.
20. Amber[LighT] - scum Hopefully the GF, similar to meapak except with no analysis? maybe he did.
24. tnkted - townred? Although hes been very open with his plans to me, nothing has worked for the benefit of town so far. Im just hoping he has bad luck and is town.
26. Lanaia - town :D im ready for the mind fuckery though if this is scum.
29. Insanious - scum I was on the fence with him, he really did go balls out putting himself out there during the IG debacle, but that last minute vote on tackster is probably the scummiest thing I have seen this game.
Well thats that, i didnt hold anything back. If tnk fails with his bus again put him on scum team.
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okay so, i have a question. is anyone shooting me tonight? I have a present
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I was thinking about shooting you, but you seemed like an easy lynch, give me your presents!
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On April 03 2011 03:10 bumatlarge wrote:5. deconduo - Hope he's town
Well, hopefully kav will flip black to confirm me. Also I did sorta push darmousseh a small bit day one, albeit not that much.
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@ Bum: Insanious is not scum.
He claimed to be paired with someone else (BB) as village idiot, and gave us his role-pm. Then BB flipped and we had the same PM from him.
He also claimed that his role was changed after that, and then so did BB's.
There's no way that mafia knew about the original role, the role change, and decided to claim that.
If they did, I assume that the other VI would claim and they'd lose a member.
So it's pretty clear to me that Insanious was telling the truth. In fact, he's practically mod-confirmed to have been the VI and now is a simple townie. (judging by BB's role-pms)
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I'm not scum, i just really do have bad luck.
and ok, I'll replace orgolove and ON on your advice.
amber[light]
insanious
Kenpachi
one of those will be switched with either me or somebody on your list.
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And since I might die tonight, I'm gonna post my opinions on everyone as well.
1. Confirmed townies:
Coag, Jackal, Eiii and Insanious
2. Likely to be townies:
Meapak, Tnked
3. Most likely to be scum:
OriginalName, Lanaia, Orgolove, Amber, Kenpachi, ilovejohn.
Now, for some explanations:
I don't know for sure about scum, they can be red/black, I don't care. But I have a really strong feeling that OriginalName is one of them. If I were Jackal, I'd tunnel him to the end of days, for example. It's not just based on gut feeling, it's also based on another side of the game that I'm not allowed to talk about.
Of course, there's nothing 100% sure, but I'd say 75% sure he's black (or red, but I'm hoping for black now, since they have the advantage).
Lanaia, I just don't buy it. He may be town, but I'd want to get rid of him either way.
Orgolove and Amber are just too lurky. Which makes me think they're black and are currently in a comfortable position. They only need to really fear lynches, so if they just shut up and go beneath the radar, they avoid those and win the game.
Just focus them for a lynch and watch the thread come alive.
Other useful information... I'm afraid we don't really have. Other than what I already said, the blacks being really far ahead.
Frankly, I don't think there's any way mafia is winning this game, so, in all honestly, they should be gunning for blacks as well (not saying that just so you don't shoot me). But they do have some cute powers and superior KP so who knows, maybe they can turn this around.
I'll keep thinking if there's any more info I could give before morning, but I doubt it.
Good luck.
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On April 03 2011 03:41 tnkted wrote:
I'm not scum, i just really do have bad luck.
and ok, I'll replace orgolove and ON on your advice.
amber[light]
insanious
Kenpachi
one of those will be switched with either me or somebody on your list.
Insanious is not scum!
Do you people not read my posts at all?
1. He claimed VI with BB
2. BB died and flipped VI, with the exact Role-PMs (both!) that Insanious posted
3. Nobody else claimed to have been BB's mirror-idiot.
I may be wrong, but so far, nobody has refuted these three points.
If they stand, then Insanious is mod-confirmed town at this point!!
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I already pointed that out cubed, and I also mentioned that when LSB first posted BB's VI role pm in the day post, it mentioned Insanious by name. That was later redacted, but I saw it before the edit. Insanious is almost certainly town now.
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I told you guys that I am town.
Also BB died so that me and Pandain can has a SC2 battle over our votes tomorrow...
Simply because, who ever wins the BO3 gets control of the other persons' vote. As such, If I win, I can kill who ever I want in the arena game, same thing if pandain wins.
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o_o well i don't know if that's the best idea, since i suspect pandain of scumminess, but ok.
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man all these role posts things leave me pretty suspicious, but if you think so cube.
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On April 03 2011 04:08 Insanious wrote:
I told you guys that I am town.
Also BB died so that me and Pandain can has a SC2 battle over our votes tomorrow...
Simply because, who ever wins the BO3 gets control of the other persons' vote. As such, If I win, I can kill who ever I want in the arena game, same thing if pandain wins.
Then you better win, as Pandain isn't confirmed like you are. All he needs to do is win, after voting someone in who's town, and free kill (If he turns out to be scum).
How are you guys picking who's going to join you? I'd suggest looking at the people who have had analysis done on them, or who most of town thinks are scum, and pick one of them. It might also be useful to announce in thread, so town doesn't use a KP on them tonight. Examples being: kenpachi, amber, etc.
My thought process for picking probable scum (whether or not Panda is scum himself):
If Panda is not scum:
He picks scum with you, works with you, no problems.
If Panda is scum:
He either picks with you, or not with you. We know you're town, so if he doesn't pick with you, and a town shows up in the game, then we know there's a high probability he's scum, and we can just lynch him.
If he does pick with you, and then votes against you, we know he's scum for certain, because you're town. It's WIFOM though for the third person in the game, so if that happened, I'd suggest, (After Pandain kills you in Arena), town lynches Panda, Coag shoots third player that night.
If all three players in the Arena die at the same time, what happens?
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Bums list
1) Bum
2) Cube
3) Coag IG obv
4) Jackal ^
5) Eiii
plus
Insanious is most likely town.
deconduo is most likely town.
After that just bare in mind that the black team is going to play as town.
They have no idea who red is any more than the rest of us.
Allows them to analyze.
Allows them to post their analysis.
Allows them a very solid town read.
Be very wary of solid analysis. They might be right.
But that doesn't mean they are town.
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On April 03 2011 03:52 CubEdIn wrote:
Lanaia, I just don't buy it. He may be town, but I'd want to get rid of him either way.
May I ask what you're not buying? I've been wanting to reveal my role to bum and yourself for a while now but I am unable to do so at this point as it is not in town's best interest or my best interest because everyone would be able to see it.
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On April 03 2011 04:23 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
If all three players in the Arena die at the same time, what happens?
The Arena will close.
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hmm, that means that if we ever do get two confirmed town in the arena, reds will probably just kill them and we won't get that nice second lynch :/
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Lanaia is 100% confirmed town in my book, she knows why.
:D
(im 99% sure that you're a girl, is that right?)
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EPT
