Mini Mafia VII: Guts and Glory - Page 2

On February 19 2011 02:02 Amber[LighT] wrote:


I'm not suspicious of Deconduo anymore. He's clearly helping out now and my only problem was that he was inactive. Not really much of a basis to lynch anybody.

I'm on the fence on Chaoser. On one hand we saw the completely useless joking posts that "irked" a bunch of people at the start, and it struck a nerve with me unconsciously, but I didn't want that to be "the only reason we lynched him." On the other hand I agree with his plan that we shouldn't lynch and bomb. It's actually one of the best ideas for us to follow; however we don't have much of a basis for lynching... but wait, YES WE DO.

In my earlier post I stated that everyone should post a list of suspects. Specifically 3 suspects that you would believe to be on the mafia team. Wow isn't that swell? Now since we clearly don't have everybody on board with this plan it's not going to work. People were also asking "why," well it's simple. THis gives the town an opportunity to know what everybody is thinking. It also gives everybody an idea of who's suspicious of who. It's all out on the table. We can then discuss the suspects without any hiding. Deceit is going to suffocate this town.

This also gives us a preliminary idea of our suspects. If there's too many random suspects (everybody picks 3 people in random orders) then we should go ahead and say that we're not ready to blow someone up. Lynching 1 person and then finding out he's just a townie is so much better than playing guessing games with 5+ potential targets. This also gives us some time before we begin voting and it's not going to be a surprise to the lynch candidate that he was chosen. If he's mafia then whatever... If he's a fanatic then hopefully he realizes that he should not try and be a hero and take someone with him.

Don't forget just because we list suspects doesn't mean that we have found any mafia. It's still Day 1 and we need to recognize that as well. I would also say it's important that we agree on not using any suicides at all for Day 1. I really don't think we could be so certain that we're going to hit mafia by sacrificing one of our own tonight. Our odds are much lower than later on down the line, and I've stated this before.

Now lets see...



Behavioral analysis. The backbone of playing mafia. Read up on it if you're not too great at it. We don't have a lot of posts to go through yet but the best way is to catch players when they make mistakes. Call them out. Players have already done that. Don't forget just because someone calls another player out doesn't mean they're automatically safe. If people don't give good reasoning then they should be looked at by other players. It's up to all of us to keep tabs on everybody in this game.

I want players to begin thinking about who the medic could be. Don't say it in the thread. This way when you see that name pop up in a list you can start working to save him/her. Medic anonymity is key in this game. Best case scenario is that we lynch mafia today, then the medic has a 1/8 survival. Worst case scenario is someone gets upset, blows himself and another fanatic up, and we lynch a 3rd fanatic, making the medics survival rate 1/5 for night one. That's almost an 8% reduction!!!



Quality over quantity my friend. I'm learning to post with more meaning since I typically would get ignored in games with nonsensical banter. You are clearly not following my plan and just gunning me down. I won't hold it against you since I get fans voting for me every game.

Since I don't want to disappoint I want to make sure I follow my own plan.

I want to keep Chaoser on my list of suspects. I am putting him at the bottom of my list though. I like his idea but he hasn't come forward and helped identify scummy players. A lot of players seem to believe he's scummy too and have posted reasons and have called him out on it and he gets quite defensive. And the suicide defense is never a good defense. If we all did that we would never lynch anybody and wait for mafia to pick us all off. We need more.

My most suspicious is definitely Jackal58. You FOS me without much defense. You call my initial post scummy. You won't even contribute other than useless one liners. And the kicker is that GGQ asked you to elaborate on my FOS and you refused to do so. You said it "has no substance." It's the only plan aside from Chaosers "don't lynch AND bomb" plan. You haven't posted anything better than what I have. That's textbook scumplay and that's actually something that RoL did to me in a past game IIRC. All you do is make simple refutes and then barely contribute. There's no way I can sit here and say to myself that you're around for the benefit of the town. You are not helping the town yet want to initiate a smear campaign against me?

My number 2 would be Coagulation, and this is a weak suspicion as well. Him and Chaoser both did the "blow my self up defense" and I, at first, felt it was okay to let it slide, but then he did it again and if we need to make an example out of players then so be it. I really feel like, with Chaoser, that this is a weak suspicion and I would like to keep both of them around until tomorrow. There's not enough on Coag for me to say he's the most scummiest. I also feel like he's going to be an asset late game and we need him around.

I believe we should lynch Jackal58 tonight, and not use any fanatic abilities. I would like the rest of the town to be on board with at least not using the fanatic ability. We only have a couple of pages of content and our most suspicious might be our best bet, but 2 and 3 on anybody's list right now is going to be weak since we haven't really dived into this game yet. Don't forget that it's still Day 1.

If I missed something someone wants to know let me know. I didn't get the chance to post yesterday but I should be around periodically today.

On February 19 2011 12:34 GMarshal wrote:
Ok, jackal lets look at whats the current situation is ok?
There are originally 11 players, 3 scum 7 town 1 medic
1. medic
2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
7. town
8 town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

now chaoser and ld bomb each other so two town die leaving us with:

1. medic
2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

lets assume a mislynch, a terrible one, we hang the medic

2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum
that leaves 5 town 3 scum, scum have 1 kp so the next day we have

3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

hence lyol, best case scenario we lynch right and also bomb a mafia leaving us with
5. town
6. town
9 scum
at the end of the night

Lets see what happens if we don't lynch today

1. medic
2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

then over night lets assume no medic save, in fact lets say mafia get lucky and kill the medic

2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

then if we mislynch and assuming no medic save/dead medic, we get a 3/3 tie which means mafia wins

hence it is in our best interest to lynch someone today

please point out where this math is scummy jackal, as of right now I'm tempted to FoS you, the only thing that is keeping me from voting against you is the fact I dont think this is your style when you are mafia, you are far less aggressive when you are