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Mini Mafia VII: Guts and Glory - Page 14

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
February 19 2011 03:34 GMT
#261
You're dead.
Life can only kill you once.
darmousseh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3437 Posts
February 19 2011 03:45 GMT
#262
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 19 2011 12:34 GMarshal wrote:
Ok, jackal lets look at whats the current situation is ok?
There are originally 11 players, 3 scum 7 town 1 medic
1. medic
2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
7. town
8 town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

now chaoser and ld bomb each other so two town die leaving us with:

1. medic
2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

lets assume a mislynch, a terrible one, we hang the medic

2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum
that leaves 5 town 3 scum, scum have 1 kp so the next day we have

3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

hence lyol, best case scenario we lynch right and also bomb a mafia leaving us with
5. town
6. town
9 scum
at the end of the night

Lets see what happens if we don't lynch today

1. medic
2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

then over night lets assume no medic save, in fact lets say mafia get lucky and kill the medic

2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

then if we mislynch and assuming no medic save/dead medic, we get a 3/3 tie which means mafia wins

hence it is in our best interest to lynch someone today

please point out where this math is scummy jackal, as of right now I'm tempted to FoS you, the only thing that is keeping me from voting against you is the fact I dont think this is your style when you are mafia, you are far less aggressive when you are



This looks correct to me. Now to identify the correct target. Probably at least 1 of the mafia is lurking and so I think going after a lurker is the best bet. I think that

Amber[light]
Coagulation

Are the most lurky. Coag has yet to contribute at all and amber's posts were mostly fluff, but he's probably a bad townie. Coag has mostly been threatening everyone and I think it's time to put pressure on coag, if only to get him to analyze with us more. Saying something like "On my 4000th post someone is going to die" doesn't help us at all.

For now, i'm putting coag, if he gives good analysis or something other than "Die everyone" then I will probably switch. I have an idea of someone else who is playing scummy, but I'm waiting for them to post again to see if my suspicions are true.

##Unvote
##Vote: Coagulation


Developer for http://mtgfiddle.com
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
February 19 2011 03:57 GMT
#263
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 19 2011 12:34 GMarshal wrote:
Ok, jackal lets look at whats the current situation is ok?
There are originally 11 players, 3 scum 7 town 1 medic
1. medic
2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
7. town
8 town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

now chaoser and ld bomb each other so two town die leaving us with:

1. medic
2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

lets assume a mislynch, a terrible one, we hang the medic

2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum
that leaves 5 town 3 scum, scum have 1 kp so the next day we have

3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

hence lyol, best case scenario we lynch right and also bomb a mafia leaving us with
5. town
6. town
9 scum
at the end of the night

Lets see what happens if we don't lynch today

1. medic
2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

then over night lets assume no medic save, in fact lets say mafia get lucky and kill the medic

2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town
9 scum
10 scum
11 scum

then if we mislynch and assuming no medic save/dead medic, we get a 3/3 tie which means mafia wins

hence it is in our best interest to lynch someone today

please point out where this math is scummy jackal, as of right now I'm tempted to FoS you, the only thing that is keeping me from voting against you is the fact I dont think this is your style when you are mafia, you are far less aggressive when you are

No it isn't. How the hell do we go from 5-3 with mafia kp to 3-3 ??????
New math is stupid.
Life can only kill you once.
darmousseh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3437 Posts
February 19 2011 04:00 GMT
#264
6-3 now. No lynch means 6-3 still. mafia kill makes it 5-3 if we miss lynch again it goes to 4-3. Then night kill means 3-3
Developer for http://mtgfiddle.com
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 19 2011 04:01 GMT
#265
ok, back to the pictures jackal

2. town
3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town

9 scum
10 scum
11 scum


in the morning, assume one townsperson is lynched ,
this is who is left at the beginning of the night

3. town
4. town
5. town
6. town

9 scum
10 scum
11 scum


then, that night, mafia kill someone leading to


4. town
5. town
6. town

9 scum
10 scum
11 scum


is that more clear now?
Moderator
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
February 19 2011 04:11 GMT
#266
5-3 Night 1
4-3 Day 2
3-3 Night 2 We lose
If we lynch and suck

6-3 Night 1
5-3 Day 2
4-3 Night 2
3-3 Day 3 we lose
If we don't lynch and suck.

Life can only kill you once.
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 19 2011 04:13 GMT
#267
right, so both times we lose by the morning of day 3, so we may as well lynch today
Moderator
darmousseh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3437 Posts
February 19 2011 04:18 GMT
#268
On February 19 2011 13:11 Jackal58 wrote:
5-3 Night 1
4-3 Day 2
3-3 Night 2 We lose
If we lynch and suck

6-3 Night 1
5-3 Day 2
4-3 Night 2
3-3 Day 3 we lose
If we don't lynch and suck.




i think that's what gmarshal was saying but with more text.

I would think we need to lynch since even if we mislynch(at worst) we still have another shot. If we don't lynch we only have 1 shot total to win.

Now that it's established we need to lynch, we need a WHO. I'm going to stick with coag (and secondary amber) until they post more.
Developer for http://mtgfiddle.com
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
February 19 2011 04:42 GMT
#269
On February 19 2011 13:13 GMarshal wrote:
right, so both times we lose by the morning of day 3, so we may as well lynch today

Ya really little difference if we suck.

If we are going to push a lynch I'm going for Amber Light.
##Unvote no lynch
##VOTE: Amber Light
Life can only kill you once.
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
February 19 2011 05:32 GMT
#270
I can't believe this. We are self-destructing as a town and I've stated this as a problem from the very start. I'm lost as to why Chaoser and LD decided to take it upon themselves to bomb like this. When I initially read this my head spun because I thought we had a pretty good understanding that we weren't going to threaten other players with bombs.

I really don't think lynching anyone is a good idea, but maybe GGQ & GMarshall are right at this point. If we don't lynch we're losing the ability to take out a potential mafia. I also don't think our odds are that good, but I think GGQ went a little off-base with his "4v3" thing. Was that a mafia slip up? He seemed pretty confident that we're going to miss today if we lynch.

I'm a little flattered that Jackal is still going after me, but it's really becoming annoying. It's so obvious that there's better candidates and he's convinced himself that I'm creating this elaborate scheme. He has no basis for voting for me and refutes EVERYTHING I say without much consideration. It's saddening to see someone play with such obvious scumtells. I've been saying this from the beginning yet people are ignoring him as a threat to the town. Darmo is beginning to get into Jackal territory. If you have a problem with my plans please start posting why and we can begin discussing them or you're going to be just as much of a suspect as Jackal is to me.

Anyone know where Deconduo is at? He seemed to run off after this post.

On February 19 2011 07:05 deconduo wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote No lynch


Obviously this will change if one of them is red.


Why not just wait until LSB posted the flip and then decide what to post? It only happened about 1 1/2 hrs after Deconduo made that post. I placed him on my list of suspects for his inactivity and then removed him, but he's yet to come around and start talking. I mean look at his posting history. It's less than stellar and after a re-read I'm nervous that he's actually scum. He wasn't the biggest Chaoser fan as well and banked on the LD/Chaoser explosion, yet did nothing to stop it. He was against people blowing themselves up so why would he just sit back and let them explode like that?

I'm done being pushed around. If we have any chance of winning we need to get the scummiest players taken out. You have been harassing my plans and ideas and have done nothing to unify the town, justify any actions, or explain specifically your issues with any suggestions or list of suspects that I have. You either don't want to comment and mess up by tipping off the rest of the town who your scum-buddies are, or you're playing bad. I'm banking on the former.

##vote: Jackal58
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 19 2011 05:45 GMT
#271
While I too find Jackal frustrating, I would hold off on lynching him, if he really is town then I can practically guarantee he'll kamikaze tomorrow as he seems convinced you are mafia, instead vote to lynch Coagulation, he hasn't posted any contributions at all, or Original Name who claims he is too busy right now (which could be true, its also an excellent excuse to lurk)
Moderator
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
February 19 2011 06:10 GMT
#272
On February 19 2011 14:45 GMarshal wrote:
While I too find Jackal frustrating, I would hold off on lynching him, if he really is town then I can practically guarantee he'll kamikaze tomorrow as he seems convinced you are mafia, instead vote to lynch Coagulation, he hasn't posted any contributions at all, or Original Name who claims he is too busy right now (which could be true, its also an excellent excuse to lurk)


I agree with you completely, but this is something I can't ignore. THe last time I did this scum got away and I was killed. It's upsetting to think that someone is going to be able to get away with what seems to be the most obvious scum tells that I've ever seen, and I don't want this to go unnoticed.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 19 2011 08:11 GMT
#273
On February 19 2011 15:10 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2011 14:45 GMarshal wrote:
While I too find Jackal frustrating, I would hold off on lynching him, if he really is town then I can practically guarantee he'll kamikaze tomorrow as he seems convinced you are mafia, instead vote to lynch Coagulation, he hasn't posted any contributions at all, or Original Name who claims he is too busy right now (which could be true, its also an excellent excuse to lurk)


I agree with you completely, but this is something I can't ignore. THe last time I did this scum got away and I was killed. It's upsetting to think that someone is going to be able to get away with what seems to be the most obvious scum tells that I've ever seen, and I don't want this to go unnoticed.

Bullshit that you want to kill someone you don't think is scum. Where is your behavior analysis? Try and look through any game with Jackal as town.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 19 2011 10:29 GMT
#274
And come on guys, you are letting Coag get away with lurking in a setup that hugely favors scum laying low.
Bartundar
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
February 19 2011 13:49 GMT
#275
##Unvote
##Vote:Amber[Light]


On February 19 2011 14:32 Amber[LighT] wrote:
He wasn't the biggest Chaoser fan as well and banked on the LD/Chaoser explosion, yet did nothing to stop it. He was against people blowing themselves up so why would he just sit back and let them explode like that?


At no point ANYWHERE did I say I was against people blowing themselves up. I haven't even hinted or suggested anything of the like. You get a vote for trying to put words in my mouth.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
February 19 2011 14:45 GMT
#276
On February 19 2011 14:45 GMarshal wrote:
While I too find Jackal frustrating, I would hold off on lynching him, if he really is town then I can practically guarantee he'll kamikaze tomorrow as he seems convinced you are mafia, instead vote to lynch Coagulation, he hasn't posted any contributions at all, or Original Name who claims he is too busy right now (which could be true, its also an excellent excuse to lurk)

I have no intentions of going boom unless I'm a minute away from being lynched.
Life can only kill you once.
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
February 19 2011 14:53 GMT
#277
On February 19 2011 22:49 deconduo wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote:Amber[Light]


Show nested quote +
On February 19 2011 14:32 Amber[LighT] wrote:
He wasn't the biggest Chaoser fan as well and banked on the LD/Chaoser explosion, yet did nothing to stop it. He was against people blowing themselves up so why would he just sit back and let them explode like that?


At no point ANYWHERE did I say I was against people blowing themselves up. I haven't even hinted or suggested anything of the like. You get a vote for trying to put words in my mouth.


On February 18 2011 05:59 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2011 05:55 chaoser wrote:
damn straight it's defensive, i haven't done anything scummy and I got a means to prove it the way I want, want me to? If you got a real case against me come back when you have more than two lines of posts when some don't even have one and it's not only a few hours into Day 1


Using the suicide mechanic as a way to prove you are town is the dumbest thing you can do. Instead how about making an actual effort. I pointed out that ONE LINE of yours is scummy and this is your response.



On February 18 2011 06:25 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2011 06:19 Jackal58 wrote:
Actually Chaoser's suggestion of a non-lynch if somebody goes boom on day 1 is the only suggestion that makes any sense so far.


Yes and no. If someone bombs a town today then:

Lynch today -> Tomorrow is lylo
No lynch today -> Tomorrow is mylo -> No lynch -> Day 3 is lylo

We essentially sacrifice a lynch day one for more information. Whether or not this is a good idea I don't know. Its also somewhat irrelevant unless someone does bomb.



On February 18 2011 23:23 deconduo wrote:
I'm suspicious of everyone who has made posts threatening/suggesting that they will blow up. It feels like a mafia thing to do to put on a fake bravado. Legit fanatics have no reason to bring attention to their powers.



This is what I meant Deconduo. Perhaps you can explain how you were inferring that blowing up was something you actually wanted players to do? Because your posts seem to hint otherwise...

Then this came after the fact:

On February 19 2011 06:42 deconduo wrote:
In 15min I'm expecting an explosion from either Lunar or Chaoser.


Also don't forget before you voted no lynch you removed yourself from Chaoser:

On February 19 2011 02:06 deconduo wrote:
In a rush, might not get to vote in time.

Vote: Chaoser

Hopefully I'll get back in time to place a more thought out vote, but for now I'm going with instinct. Sorry chaoser.


Why did you switch before the flip, and to a no vote? It could have been a fake kill?
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
February 19 2011 15:02 GMT
#278
On February 19 2011 23:53 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2011 22:49 deconduo wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote:Amber[Light]


On February 19 2011 14:32 Amber[LighT] wrote:
He wasn't the biggest Chaoser fan as well and banked on the LD/Chaoser explosion, yet did nothing to stop it. He was against people blowing themselves up so why would he just sit back and let them explode like that?


At no point ANYWHERE did I say I was against people blowing themselves up. I haven't even hinted or suggested anything of the like. You get a vote for trying to put words in my mouth.


Show nested quote +
On February 18 2011 05:59 deconduo wrote:
On February 18 2011 05:55 chaoser wrote:
damn straight it's defensive, i haven't done anything scummy and I got a means to prove it the way I want, want me to? If you got a real case against me come back when you have more than two lines of posts when some don't even have one and it's not only a few hours into Day 1


Using the suicide mechanic as a way to prove you are town is the dumbest thing you can do. Instead how about making an actual effort. I pointed out that ONE LINE of yours is scummy and this is your response.


He had no votes on him, blowing up right there to prove he was town after a single FOS would be the dumbest thing he could do. How does this imply that blowing up in general is bad?

Show nested quote +
On February 18 2011 06:25 deconduo wrote:
On February 18 2011 06:19 Jackal58 wrote:
Actually Chaoser's suggestion of a non-lynch if somebody goes boom on day 1 is the only suggestion that makes any sense so far.


Yes and no. If someone bombs a town today then:

Lynch today -> Tomorrow is lylo
No lynch today -> Tomorrow is mylo -> No lynch -> Day 3 is lylo

We essentially sacrifice a lynch day one for more information. Whether or not this is a good idea I don't know. Its also somewhat irrelevant unless someone does bomb.


And? I voiced no opinion on actually blowing up, just stated the possibilities if it did happen

Show nested quote +
On February 18 2011 23:23 deconduo wrote:
I'm suspicious of everyone who has made posts threatening/suggesting that they will blow up. It feels like a mafia thing to do to put on a fake bravado. Legit fanatics have no reason to bring attention to their powers.


Once again, talking about people going 'ahaha I've got a bomb and I wanna use it.' Not giving any opinion on the act of blowing up once again.

This is what I meant Deconduo. Perhaps you can explain how you were inferring that blowing up was something you actually wanted players to do? Because your posts seem to hint otherwise...

Then this came after the fact:

Show nested quote +
On February 19 2011 06:42 deconduo wrote:
In 15min I'm expecting an explosion from either Lunar or Chaoser.


Also don't forget before you voted no lynch you removed yourself from Chaoser:

Show nested quote +
On February 19 2011 02:06 deconduo wrote:
In a rush, might not get to vote in time.

Vote: Chaoser

Hopefully I'll get back in time to place a more thought out vote, but for now I'm going with instinct. Sorry chaoser.


Why did you switch before the flip, and to a no vote? It could have been a fake kill?

If you thought that it could possibly be a fake kill you are dumber than I thought. They would BOTH have to be mafia/medic... No, instead you are once again trying to manipulate what I said to cast suspicion on me.


Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
February 19 2011 15:50 GMT
#279
On February 20 2011 00:02 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2011 23:53 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On February 19 2011 22:49 deconduo wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote:Amber[Light]


On February 19 2011 14:32 Amber[LighT] wrote:
He wasn't the biggest Chaoser fan as well and banked on the LD/Chaoser explosion, yet did nothing to stop it. He was against people blowing themselves up so why would he just sit back and let them explode like that?


At no point ANYWHERE did I say I was against people blowing themselves up. I haven't even hinted or suggested anything of the like. You get a vote for trying to put words in my mouth.


On February 18 2011 05:59 deconduo wrote:
On February 18 2011 05:55 chaoser wrote:
damn straight it's defensive, i haven't done anything scummy and I got a means to prove it the way I want, want me to? If you got a real case against me come back when you have more than two lines of posts when some don't even have one and it's not only a few hours into Day 1


Using the suicide mechanic as a way to prove you are town is the dumbest thing you can do. Instead how about making an actual effort. I pointed out that ONE LINE of yours is scummy and this is your response.


He had no votes on him, blowing up right there to prove he was town after a single FOS would be the dumbest thing he could do. How does this imply that blowing up in general is bad?

On February 18 2011 06:25 deconduo wrote:
On February 18 2011 06:19 Jackal58 wrote:
Actually Chaoser's suggestion of a non-lynch if somebody goes boom on day 1 is the only suggestion that makes any sense so far.


Yes and no. If someone bombs a town today then:

Lynch today -> Tomorrow is lylo
No lynch today -> Tomorrow is mylo -> No lynch -> Day 3 is lylo

We essentially sacrifice a lynch day one for more information. Whether or not this is a good idea I don't know. Its also somewhat irrelevant unless someone does bomb.


And? I voiced no opinion on actually blowing up, just stated the possibilities if it did happen

On February 18 2011 23:23 deconduo wrote:
I'm suspicious of everyone who has made posts threatening/suggesting that they will blow up. It feels like a mafia thing to do to put on a fake bravado. Legit fanatics have no reason to bring attention to their powers.


Once again, talking about people going 'ahaha I've got a bomb and I wanna use it.' Not giving any opinion on the act of blowing up once again.

This is what I meant Deconduo. Perhaps you can explain how you were inferring that blowing up was something you actually wanted players to do? Because your posts seem to hint otherwise...

Then this came after the fact:

On February 19 2011 06:42 deconduo wrote:
In 15min I'm expecting an explosion from either Lunar or Chaoser.


Also don't forget before you voted no lynch you removed yourself from Chaoser:

On February 19 2011 02:06 deconduo wrote:
In a rush, might not get to vote in time.

Vote: Chaoser

Hopefully I'll get back in time to place a more thought out vote, but for now I'm going with instinct. Sorry chaoser.


Why did you switch before the flip, and to a no vote? It could have been a fake kill?

If you thought that it could possibly be a fake kill you are dumber than I thought. They would BOTH have to be mafia/medic... No, instead you are once again trying to manipulate what I said to cast suspicion on me.





This is all I wanted Deconduo. I appreciate you at least taking the time out to hammer out my suspicion. I'll gladly drop it.

@ Barundar if it's going to be the difference between a no-lynch and lynching Coagulation I will make sure it gets done. Don't we already have a majority at this point, or we're nearing it?

It seems like the town would much rather lynch someone than not to have suspects go unchecked, and of course I recognize that Coagulation is playing on the shady side. Like Jackal, he has been bleeding with scum tells from the very start.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 19 2011 16:01 GMT
#280
@ Barundar if it's going to be the difference between a no-lynch and lynching Coagulation I will make sure it gets done. Don't we already have a majority at this point, or we're nearing it?

I'm fine with lynching either you or coagulation. Reason I pick coag over you is beceause you atleast post something. If you want to help me bus who I think is your teammate, thats ok
Bartundar
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