TL Mafia XXXVII - Page 6

What happened Night 3
LSB shoots Bum
Doctor Protects LSB
Mafia Shoots Foolishness and LSB

People dead: LSB and Foolishness.

What town thinks happened Night 3
LSB shoots LA
Mafia shot Bum and Foolishness
LA is Vet

People dead: Bum and Foolishness.

Keep in mind, mafia has a pretty good idea of what happened Night 3. The key difference is that the town thinks that LSB could be telling the truth about LA

We set up the switch like this.
I’m in contact with LA. LA claims that he was hit last night. I then claim I hit him.
Simple.

Now the key point is that. LSB is the bait here.

When town looks at this situation, naturally the townie would gravitate towards lynching LA. For example, check this out

When GMarshal sees what happens, his first reaction is to lynch LA. This is because LA isn’t a great contributor, he is under suspcision, and the town wants to get rid of him. Having LSB claim is just another plus.

Now, but what happens if LA is lynched? He flips green, and LSB looks good (Well assuming he is green, he could be red, but either way LSB is a better lynch for mafia)
But if LSB is lynched, that’s a big plus for mafia.

So the bait is there. Who would take the bait?

Chaoser



Chaoser immediately pushed the town to lynching LSB instead of LA. Instead of lynching LA to confirm LSB, he realizes this could be his chance to take out LSB, who's been confirmed three times over

But wait? Didn’t he have this great post about why we should lynch LA? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888&currentpage=81#1604
(A gigantic post telling us why LA is supposedly mafia)

Why would he suddenly abandon all thought of lynching LA. Lynching LA would do the same thing, confirm that LSB is telling the ‘truth’

Unless he was mafia and took the bait. Chaoser went for the fat juicy target and took it.

Mafia Caught!
##Vote Chaoser

After observing Mafia XXXVI and playing as mafia in Diplomacy, I realized one thing.
If your mafia, it’s really hard to play against your interests.

In Diplomacy, the Mafia interest was to take out the Vig. And I did that, I moved and attacked Ace. It was important to the mafia that we did this or Ace would have killed me, losing a lot of votes.

At the same time, I didn’t consider what a townie would have done. A townie would have let Ace confirm himself. Instead I tried to fabricate a reasoning for my interests.

Now lets apply this to this game.
The choice is between LSB and LA. Mafia interest is to take out LSB, especially since LA is probably inactive. So they go for it and fabricate a reasoning and try to get the town to go with it.

But remember. This isn’t what a townie would have done. A townie would have lynched the inactive (who isn’t going to help them in lylo anyways), because if they were both red, who is lynched first doesn’t matter

And I am very sure about Chaoser because of one big reason. He abandoned him lynch of LA. If he really thought LA was mafia, why would he abandon it? The only explanation is that he is mafia and took the bait