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LSB
United States5171 Posts
That actually would make sense. 4 Grunts, and 1 Godfather. That is 5 mafia total, so 2.5 KP + the godfather KP, giving them 3.5 KP. They didn't use their power night one, so that means DT checks from night 1 are mostly reliable. By using 1+ roleblocks night two, we can soft confirm both me and Jackal | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
Balance wise there are 6 mafia total. 1 GF, and 5 grunts. 3.5 KP total We took out a grunt night one, leaving the mafia with 3 KP. Mafia only used 3 kills night one, meaning that DT/Cop checks are generally reliable. Mafia used 3 kills night two, meaning that the roleblocker claims are somewhat reliable and DT/Cop checks generally reliable. DT/COPs, please breadcrumb your results With 3.5 KP in the game, there probably is 2-3 medics, meaning we still have some protection. Now the troubling part. Assuming the mafia makes all three of the shots, the mafia will still be winning because they will compose of 4/15 or 26% of the players. This is compared to the initial setup of 6/30 or 20% of the players. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On March 03 2011 13:19 gryffindor wrote: ....................................... AND THIS IS FAIR? You just completely made me believe LSB or Jackal had to be scum because of that, yet you didn't clarify what you were doing before you did it? Half of my posts today have been influenced by that. This is terrible........... Translation: is it fair that you told the town that the mafia had 4 KP yesterday? Otherwise I wouldn't have fabricated a case that there was no vig. Say hello to mafia day 3 strategy! | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On March 04 2011 02:45 CubEdIn wrote: Ok but why would mafia RB two people and kill three instead of killing four at this stage of the game. Am I missing something here? I don't think Rol would have allowed it. I think he just said that he would give them an 'extra' .5 action, rather than using an entire KP which is just mad and abusive | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
=D! | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
LastArgument. He sounds like a smurf to me, he obviously knows what he is doing and throwing around terminology a lot, something a 'new player' wouldn't be inclined to do. At the same time though, I don't agree with his analysis of LunarDestiny. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
What's so hard about that? It's my dominate strategy I have no idea about a second vig, but hey, I didn't have any problem with shooting LA at the time so I did it. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On March 05 2011 07:42 CubEdIn wrote: I am confused, AGAIN. Why is this? If Seraph would have been modkilled, why would we vote for him? How does Seraph being red prove Jbright is town? I'm seriously asking, since a lot of people have been going on this already, and I fear I missed something. I'm pointing out how Seraph being modkilled means 1) Mafia could/would bus him easily 2) This does not necessarily mean that Jbright is town, Jbright is mafia. Regarding the vig hit: - why not claim sooner? - why not Barundar? I get that you called for another vig to hit him, buy why not do it yourself the day after you saw that nobody did. You were arguing with him, you called for vig, no vig shot him, you called for vig again, and decided to shoot someone else? I'm sorry, but that just doesn't make much sense. Why did everyone shift focus off Kev? is it because he said "I am townie"? I wanted to see what people would do. I find it interesting that some people immediately think that mafia must have doublestacked. I've already explained why not Barundar. And I stuck something down on the bottom I don't think we should shift focus off of Kev, at the same time though, there isn't much in depth analysis on him. I'll take a look at him So, as long as there's no other vig, we can assume they're both town. The only think I really don't get is why did LSB choose LA when he wanted to off Barundar all this time? This is fishy, but I'd rather hear "I had my reasons" then "I didn't wanna stack". Please. How's this for you? + Show Spoiler + Original Message From Barundar: So you call for a vigi hit on me despite saying you don't know if I'm scum. Explain the contradiction. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
Btw, Gmarshal is red | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
##Vote GMarshal | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
1) you claimed green, and backtracked - a lie 2) you have been mudslinging on barundar, and said a vig should hit him - you're a "vig" - lie LOL. Claim vig before I make my shot? Do you really think I'm that stupid? And I never claimed green. Lucky for me, people just assumed I was green. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
I don't understand why you guys are making these silly points -.- | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
![[image loading]](http://taxteaparty.com/yahoo_site_admin/assets/images/Bait_&_Switch_p1.17742206_std.jpg) Bait and Switch A new idea of a play Welcome to the bait and switch! By giving imperfect information to the mafia, we can tell a lot. Read why I did this before you yell out LAL The setup + Show Spoiler + What happened Night 3 LSB shoots Bum Doctor Protects LSB Mafia Shoots Foolishness and LSB People dead: LSB and Foolishness. What town thinks happened Night 3 LSB shoots LA Mafia shot Bum and Foolishness LA is Vet People dead: Bum and Foolishness. Keep in mind, mafia has a pretty good idea of what happened Night 3. The key difference is that the town thinks that LSB could be telling the truth about LA The Bait + Show Spoiler + We set up the switch like this. I’m in contact with LA. LA claims that he was hit last night. I then claim I hit him. Simple. Now the key point is that. LSB is the bait here. When town looks at this situation, naturally the townie would gravitate towards lynching LA. For example, check this out On March 05 2011 07:07 GMarshal wrote: Alright, so this either confirms you two or is a desperate scum gamble to survive, if we hung either of you the other would be confirmed, however the price of that confirmation is bringing us one day closer to lylo if you guys aren't a scumteam... So, people what are your thoughts on the topic? If we lynch LA we confirm LSB as town or scum depending on the flip, alternatively we could just ignore that and go after kevinconism/others as our lynch of the day and worry about LSB and LA tomorrow, hoping that a mafia hit would flip one of them for us. When GMarshal sees what happens, his first reaction is to lynch LA. This is because LA isn’t a great contributor, he is under suspcision, and the town wants to get rid of him. Having LSB claim is just another plus. Now, but what happens if LA is lynched? He flips green, and LSB looks good (Well assuming he is green, he could be red, but either way LSB is a better lynch for mafia) But if LSB is lynched, that’s a big plus for mafia. So the bait is there. Who would take the bait? The Switch + Show Spoiler + Chaoser On March 05 2011 07:10 chaoser wrote: Lynch LSB. If he's vigi then we have 100% confirmed in LA being a vet since I doubt medics protected him. If LSB is red then LA is red too. On March 05 2011 07:12 chaoser wrote: LSB, if you were vigi, why didn't you hit barundar yourself? You were calling for a hit on him? Chaoser immediately pushed the town to lynching LSB instead of LA. Instead of lynching LA to confirm LSB, he realizes this could be his chance to take out LSB, who's been confirmed three times over But wait? Didn’t he have this great post about why we should lynch LA? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888¤tpage=81#1604 (A gigantic post telling us why LA is supposedly mafia) Why would he suddenly abandon all thought of lynching LA. Lynching LA would do the same thing, confirm that LSB is telling the ‘truth’ Unless he was mafia and took the bait. Chaoser went for the fat juicy target and took it. Mafia Caught! ##Vote Chaoser Why I did this?/How does this work? + Show Spoiler + After observing Mafia XXXVI and playing as mafia in Diplomacy, I realized one thing. If your mafia, it’s really hard to play against your interests. In Diplomacy, the Mafia interest was to take out the Vig. And I did that, I moved and attacked Ace. It was important to the mafia that we did this or Ace would have killed me, losing a lot of votes. At the same time, I didn’t consider what a townie would have done. A townie would have let Ace confirm himself. Instead I tried to fabricate a reasoning for my interests. Now lets apply this to this game. The choice is between LSB and LA. Mafia interest is to take out LSB, especially since LA is probably inactive. So they go for it and fabricate a reasoning and try to get the town to go with it. But remember. This isn’t what a townie would have done. A townie would have lynched the inactive (who isn’t going to help them in lylo anyways), because if they were both red, who is lynched first doesn’t matter And I am very sure about Chaoser because of one big reason. He abandoned him lynch of LA. If he really thought LA was mafia, why would he abandon it? The only explanation is that he is mafia and took the bait LastArgument So is LA actually green? Well, I don’t know… yet… there is an easy way to tell if LA is green. And that will come day 4. Why I am Town? I shot Bumatalarge. My PMs with Barundar foreshadows this I took a hit last night. I killed Annul and Seraph. Chaoser is red. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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