|
On February 03 2011 05:16 darmousseh wrote:
My guess is that chaoser, DrH and kenpachi are all green. We did well voting based on clues day 1, no reason to vote based on thread analysis just yet. If cubedin ends up green, then we should start examining other options. I suspect that cubedin will turn up red though.
That's your call. I'm ready to start the thread analysis and I place more faith in that than these clues.
|
On February 03 2011 06:17 chaoser wrote:
It's not a dumb move...We get a lot of info from the lynch. The point of being town isn't to live, it's to help town win. You blame town for being stupid but you should blame yourself because you are inactive day one, you didn't even vote. If anything, you should be mod killed and issued a warning. Stop bitching if you're green and help the town.
He is helping the town. If he is green and honestly believes I am mafia then there is no reason for him not to tunnel vision on me and try to get me lynched. That's actually the right thing to do. I lost confidence in him being mafia because he seemed less interested in making himself look innocent than he did in making me look like mafia. That's pro-town play.
I look forward to reading the made up inconsistencies in my posting. Not that changing your mind is not the same as an inconsitency. A lot of players get criticized or called scummy for changing their minds and opinions and TL towns have to stop doing that.
The other thing we have to stop doing is "assume that if A flips green whoever accused him of being mafia is red" 99/100 times they're both green.
|
On February 03 2011 04:49 shannn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2011 04:37 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 03 2011 03:43 shannn wrote:On February 03 2011 03:19 chaoser wrote:On February 03 2011 03:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 03 2011 03:09 chaoser wrote:
Bad town play, whether they are mafia or not, should be punished. The fact of the matter is, we don't know if Kenpachi is playing badly as town or if he's mafia, regardless of how he acted in previous games. I'm going to stick my vote on him. If we excuse his play as "just a bad townie" then we screw ourselves over the day he's actually a mafia.
As for the clues, I think when it comes down to it, it's between Cubed and Dr.H. Between the two of them, I'd rather lynch Dr.H cause if he's red then we have a connection between him and Kenpachi; plus i get to feel smart about figuring out their plan of bussing Jackal on day 1. there is no connection between me and kenpachi i just dont want to lynch him unless a clue points at him why cant you understand what im saying when i mean analysis is inconclusive in light of how terrible he is. his play in this game is directly in line with town play. its like lynching bill murray because he spammed or lynching NB for asking a dumb question. also "lynching for information" is a scum play anyway. You look worse and worse. Condescending play is condescending. Something mafia would pull when they're in a bind. There's no need for it if you're town. I've done it before as mafia, and I've seen others do it as well. When Cubein flips green, you do realize you're on the chopping block right? If he flips red, well mafia should just give up at that point since it's an almost full town. Or DrH and Cubed are both green or red which is still unlikely but it can happen. In any case the best way to move forward today is if we lynch either of those 2. Like you also said, if Cubed does flip green then it's most likely that the other is red and in which Kenpachi is automatically solved as well. So by going by this logic and my analysis of Cubed and DrH and the circumstances we're in I'm voting against Cubed. ##Vote CubEdIn wtf these assumptions are terrible why is it "unlikely" that both me and cubedin are green? that's stupid. why does knowing my alignment have anything to do with kenpachi? i don't really understand why anyone would think any of these things. So by reading your reply it's smart to actually say that both of you are red? I don't know your role. Your discussion between Cubed and you might as well be a plot to make certain that one of you won't be suspected as mafia but there might as well be a scenario that that the clues point to someone else and you 2 are so concentrated on each other that people have missed the key theme of the clues of LSB hence 2 greens could also be possible. As for knowing your alignment with Kenpachi it's simple. You agree that Kenpachi is awful as town with chaoser but I as non experienced player do not know this and neither does chaoser seeing upon his comments. You cannot base someone's role on his past because people can just as well use this to camouflage his role in the future. You can use this knowledge as mafia (if you were) and just say he's stupid and always acts like this. Hence the reasoning of mine that Kenpachi is tied with your role. It doesn't mean it will be for certain but atleast for a high probability that what you think about Kenpachi is right if you are town. If you aren't town then everything you said/defended people means they're an ally of you. Besides I didn't vote on you but the reaction on your part makes me think I should reconsider. But for now I'll stick with Cubed. You said it yourself. He isn't showing any signs of mafia and if you were you'd act to it but we don't know what your role is hence we cannot go by your words. Do you understand my reasoning now?
Alright I wanted to respond to this earlier but I had class. I'd like it if everyone carefully read this and thought about this (what I'm going to say.)
1. Yes, it is reasonable that both CubEdIn and myself are red. It's unlikely though. This means I already bussed Jackal and am now bussing CubEdIn. I like using the bus but that's just too risky. I like to play really risky styles as mafia but that's too much. It's not an impossibility. I am not "innocent" if CubEdIn is red. It looks good for me but it is not proof. The only proof is death in this game.
2. Yes you cannot base someones role on their past. That's my point. I'm saying Kenpachi's posts are not "pro-town" or "pro-scum". I can not read them at all. They're inconclusive. Let's look at the most obvious example of bad play, NB.
In every game as town NB contributes nothing to the discussion. He just asks questions, says "oh im gonna read this and put my thoughts later ok" and things like this. This looks wishy washy, like he's making excuses for inactivity. He does this as town because he is bad, doesn't or can't analyse posts, etc.
In every game as mafia NB does the exact same thing. While it is very noticeable when Ace contributes bad/fake analysis, distracts town, acts wishy washy, jumps on easy bandwagons it isn't the same for Kenpachi. Kenpachi will do that as town and he will do it as mafia. My opinion on his posts is inconclusive. I don't want to lynch him because it's just a coinflip.
The other idea is that if Chaoser says "Player X is really scummy" and I say "No they aren't" then that is the same as a scum defense. That isn't a very strong connection to him. Town players defend other town players constantly and that sort of thing is only worth talking about after the fact.
If Chaoser defends others, I don't really care until he's dead and i know his role. If he's mafia THEN that becomes important.
But I really don't know what to say. I keep saying it but no one listens. There is little point in analysing kenpachi's post behavior right now because this is how he plays across the board early on in the game. Look at him in Salem Mafia Day 2 or Pokemafia. It's the same shit and he was town both times. Maybe some of the behaviors are "scummy" when applied to a large player group but they don't really apply to him. That's just the way it is. Until clues point at him, I wouldn't even consider lynching him. Because post analysis is LOST on players like Kenpachi and Coagulation and NB. We got Coag in Insane Mafia because he was DT checked. Then I was able to figure out Pandain was mafia too but town let him live for some reason.
Also this is not true that mafia only defend mafia. Honestly, it's most common that mafia IGNORE other mafia completely. Or even attack other mafia aggressively to stage disagreement. I see mafia attackin eachother or ignoring eachother more often than I see them defending.
Go read my Experimental Mini Mafia game to see that happen. Read Salem Mafia early game and see how mafia just avoid talking to each other altogether and never refer to eachother by name in posts. It is extremely rare that you see this kind of early comradarie. If Kenpachi was mafia and I was mafia it would be retarded for him to come forth with this worship of me calling me his favorite poster or whatever.
It would be smart if he was mafia/i'm town, since if he died the remaining mafia could push suspicion on me easily. Mafia are looking for opportunities to turn a bad lynch into a worse one or a good lynch into one that hurts the town. Mafia defend and attach themselves to townies to throw off direction in the case of a lynch. All that speculation you and chaoser are doing is pure pure WIFOM. It has nothing to do with goals, with contributions, or anything that matters.
Kenpachi is, unfortunately, exempt from that kind of analysis because he doesn't contribute anything even if he is town and just spams mindlessly. That's the player that Kenpachi is and ignoring that is gonna result in another easy green lynch for the mafia. That's just the way it is. Has anyone else played in a game where town lynched green Kenpachi because he posted the same sort of things? Am I the only one with any sort of memory? It seems to me like Chaosers memory is built around supporting his case which is scummy.
|
We should shut up at night. See what happens Day 3, don't give the mafia opportunity to make a better decision.
|
just wanna plug if anyone likes the movie "battle royale" or the book and wants to cohost a game based on that with me, PM me. (not using mafia rulesets)
|
i would never say anything like that at night
|
DoctorHelvetica's Plan
DoctorHelvetica: ADC
Node: DE
darmousseh: CE
chaoser: D
GMarshal: E
Kenpachi: B
Shann: C
Thought about this for a while and this is what I've come up with.
Will voting for "override town" give us a clue? Or will we be forced to continue on with no clues? This plan is really risky. It can be so easily corrupted and that will lead us to a bad lynch. That's LYLO unless the mafia miss another hit.
|
DrH's Real Plan
Darmousseh and node are almost certainly town. I strongly believe Chaoser is mafia. I think his teammate is either GMarshal or Shann although it's more likely to be shann. Let me revise my plan.
DoctorHelvetica: ACD
Node: ACB
darmousseh: EDB
chaoser: D
Gmarshal: B
Kenpachi: A
Shann: C
This gives Gmarshal/Kenpachi/Shann/Chaoser who I am unsure of no power of corruption whatsoever.
I say we override this and just lynch Chaoser now though. If I'm wrong and darmousseh played me then we're really screwed.
|
On February 04 2011 11:37 Kenpachi wrote:
so wait, we all submit a bunch of letters and if there are more town entries per letter, the message isnt corrupt?
Also to DrH, if you were mafia, would that plan give us a townie?
Not necessarily. There are two occurences of each letter I have amongst others. But if I were mafia obviously I would set it up so the message gets corrupted by giving a teammate either A, C, or D.
|
Doesn't everyone have to send a message? If not then I propose
Myself: AB
Node: CD
Darmousseh: E
|
On February 04 2011 12:18 Pandain wrote:
Here:
Dmosh: A
Chaoser: BC
Gmarshal: DE
Here we have one almost confirmed town, and two suspicious players.
Either we shall get a confirmed lynch, or we will have a guranteed lynch for the next two days.
Let's just play safe me thinks, kk?
That's too dangerous. If any part of the message is corrupt then we get a townie result. So only 1 of those 3 have to be mafia for that to happen. So it doesn't give us guaranteed anything.
|
Alright.
##Vote: darmousseh
If you played us witht he Pandain accusation you deserve an award. Really subtle mafia play if so.
|
On February 04 2011 17:12 shannn wrote:
Oh never mind. Its better to pick 2 most likely town members because then you'll get a mafia name right away but when you lynch that person and he isn't mafia then we get you or node as mafia right?
Correct. Darmousseh wouldn't throw himself under the bus like that so the rational response is to lynch Node.
|
We should absolutely stick with darmousseh's original plan. Any attempts to modify this or mislead town in a different direction will be setting off huge alarms in my brain.
|
On February 05 2011 08:09 Node wrote:Sorry for being out lately, it's been hell week from hell at class. Here are my thoughts on darmousseh's plans: Show nested quote +On February 05 2011 02:51 darmousseh wrote:
Very true, if I am mafia then this would be the most optimal choice of my plan, however, a good mafia would never have come up with the plan that will produce a mafia anyway and instead the mafia will be stalling and suggesting that we simply override the vote and continue the game normally. If you believe someone else is more likely green than myself, then suggest that person instead, but I want what is best for town and so i'm willing to volunteer for it.
Put simply, this isn't true. The absolute best-case scenario for mafia is that you are mafia. Under either of your plans, the message would be corrupt and a townie will be lynched. The next day would be LYLO. (4 town vs 2 mafia, 2 vs 2 the next day if we mislynch) The town seems to agree that I would be the first to be lynched, and of course I'm going to say right now that that would be the wrong choice. I'm willing to volunteer, as I do believe that darmousseh is town, and that there are far more pros than cons to this plan. It's just something to keep in mind in case this goes belly-up. I'm just worried that if we end up lynching a townie the plan will be followed to a T, and the game will be over then and there. Even in a game where puzzles produce seemingly clear answers, we still need to rely on analysis in the long run. Here's hoping the mafia die tonight. ##Vote: darmousseh
Yes, I thought of this as well.
If darmousseh is mafia, this is a brilliant brilliant plan and in that case mafia probably deserve to win. But I'd volunteer myself for Darmousseh's spot if anyone is having similar worries. Although I know Chaoser and a few others probably are suspicious of me.
|
On February 05 2011 08:24 GMarshal wrote:
I propose we go with the plan as already formatted, I mean if there's anyone I believe to be town its node and darmousseh, sorry Dr.H but I'm not sure that you are town.
That's fine.
|
Alright. Time to move forward then. Hopefully we can clinch this game unless darmousseh is a slick bastard.
|
|
|
On February 05 2011 11:34 shannn wrote:
Ok so that's pretty much obvious lolol and already suspected. Wonder who the acomplice is.
##Vote Chaoser
It's you or kenpachi, in my honest opinion. If he flips town then I'd lynch darmousseh NOT node. I think that's unlikely though.
Yes I'm aware he attacked kenpachi yesterday.
|
On February 05 2011 11:42 shannn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2011 11:35 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 05 2011 11:34 shannn wrote:
Ok so that's pretty much obvious lolol and already suspected. Wonder who the acomplice is.
##Vote Chaoser It's you or kenpachi, in my honest opinion. If he flips town then I'd lynch darmousseh NOT node. I think that's unlikely though. Yes I'm aware he attacked kenpachi yesterday. Funny thing. I have you and Kenpachi still on my list. I would lynch darmousseh too if chaoser comes out as town but he was already being a bit scummy so I don't expect him to be town at all.
well naturally you wouldn't suspect yourself. It'll be up to the day 3 clues to determine that :3
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
