| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote: Day 4 ![[image loading]](http://ciaran-walsh.com/images/Kosinski/H3/halo_1.jpg) Harmlessly passing your time in the grassland away; That picture is from the first Halo 3 advertisement. I actually recognized it right away, but failed to make the obvious connection to Beneather's profile pic... | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Remember how I wrote a "My case for Bum" analysis? I wrote a "Dear Impervious" analysis soon afterwards. Remember how I revisited with "My case for Bum v2.0"? I'm writing a "Dear Impervious v2.0" now. Guess I just need to be more confident and push harder for a lynch with my FoS's. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Looking forward to a lively discussion with you. GL.  | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Dear Impervious: v2.0 IN TWO PARTS! + Show Spoiler [Clues! Good ones, I think!] + I haven't had much time these past few day because of school, but I managed to look back over the clues from the past days. I've been looking at the all wrong, and nothing has seemed to work out very well, but after reviewing some of the stuff in the other clue game LSB ran, I think I have a better idea of how they work. On January 27 2011 11:01 Node wrote: The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. For real cries And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... And then the flash of steel from real guns Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body. The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone. It has already been pointed out that this sounds like a Zergling. Within SC2 books, Zerglings are often described as being the size of "deer", so that makes sense. A scream no animal can make? Fits. All the descriptions seems to work well. On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote: I made my way into the caves, and saw all that I needed to see. On the edge of the light, ilovejonn’s body sprawled on the floor. A beast hunched over him, an alien form that I had never seen before. “I’m sorry. I do this for the greater good,” it growled, and then the ground cracked open under it, and it disappeared. Further evidence of a zerg burrowing. More evidence that it's an alien. Pretty sure it's a zergling at this point. Now, what could the zergling refer to? No one who is alive has any reference to zerglings, except for maybe Impervious's post icon, but icons can change as the game goes on. Heck, even mine has changed this game. His will change as soon as he hits.... Oh wait. Huh. That's strange. Impervious' posting icon seems to have been permanently set to a zergling. + Show Spoiler [Post Analysis!] + Well, I've never been one to lynch off of clues, so let's take a look at your posting! On January 27 2011 09:49 Impervious wrote: Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. This was a defense of Bum, and a suggestion of several scummy ideas: lynching people who voted for me, Random lynching for the first few days... In general, a display of poor logic that benefits Bum On January 27 2011 10:16 Impervious wrote: Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. Support of the whole push for looking statistics, something that was spearheaded by Bum On January 30 2011 12:18 Impervious wrote: Frankly, if you've ever read through that, you'd find that it's actually more fucked up as the connection you're trying to make here is..... I definitely think there's something up with Jackal58 though. "Steel", "Black", and relatively inactive which may indicate that he was the one that the clues are about? The first of many posts supporting Jackal's "Steel" clue, something that I believe was part of a concerted (and quite successful) effort by the mafia to help the town look at the clues the totally wrong way. It's not word matching game, it's clue game. I'm not entirely sure why it took me this long to figure that out, but it's pretty obvious now. On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote: (My first "Dear Impervious" letter) tbh, I'm kinda glad you called me out here. Hopefully it can get some discussion going. We need more than we've got..... Generate more discussion, Eh? So that would explain why you disappear for the next FIVE pages, post three one liners, then disappear for another TWELVE PAGES? Lol, fail scum. (But really, Fail me for not noticing that earlier) On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote: Make up your mind, woman..... First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it.....  On January 31 2011 14:14 Impervious wrote: PS - if you can't tell, there's a bit of sarcasm and dry humor in my post. Unfortunately, it doesn't come across as well as it would in a face-to-face conversation - there's only so much that text can convey..... This came across as very odd to me at the time, but I never really thought much about. Why would someone feel the need to make is so clear that he was being sarcastic? It comes off seeming like something that a very nervous person would do. Why would a townie be nervous because of a light FoS from me? Unless he wasn't a townie, and i was dead on the money with what I was saying... On February 01 2011 05:22 Impervious wrote: If I had something to hide, why would I take the bite? It only gives you more information to base an unfounded assumption off of..... Of course, then you could claim that I'm trying to cover my tracks by appearing to take the bite? And then we're in a WIFOM situation..... While the clues are nice, and analyzing everyone's posting history with such extreme scrutiny is an impressive accomplishment, looking at the logic behind what people do (not say, do) is also important. We're really, really early in the game so far, so there's not much to go by yet. Wait. Remember when I posted my first analysis of you? And you disappear for like, 17 pages? Huh. You bring up very good points for me, friend. On February 02 2011 14:33 Impervious wrote: Think about it - look at how people have been voting, look at how the clues have been leading us in the wrong direction..... Does it really make any sense that we haven't had a single fucking Mafia kill yet? There's something fishy about vig and SK hits not hitting a mafia at all (especially since any decent SK would be thinking that the mafia is winning, and therefore try to kill scum instead, and the clue last night really signals that a vig made a hit). The only way that could make any sense (without some extreme luck by the mafia) was if the mayor was lying to us. And if he was, it would be very, very easy to turn us against the wrong people..... Impervious has FoS'd two people in particular that I remember: Jackal, and Me. Mostly just trying to discredit me/make me out to be mafia. ANY analysis of my posting at that point would have shown me to be town, or SK. Only Mafia would have had the motivation for turning public opinion against the mayor, more importantly the census, at that point was Mafia. I remember you saying this earlier, in response to my first analysis: On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote: Agreed. But statistics can be used as a powerful analysis tool, and discounting one method of analysis is a foolish thing to do. So whatever happened to that other method of analysis? You know, the real kind? Cause you're sure not doing any of it... I could keep going with the rest of his posts, but I'm tired, and already convinced. If you aren't I'll continue, but I think between the clues, and the posts, this should be the obvious lynch for today. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
What do you think? | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Impervious: Would you mind replying to my points? Or are you afraid that I'll just take your counter arguments and show everyone how scummy you are like I did with Bumatlarge's responses? Still you gave me a little bit to work with... On February 07 2011 00:34 Impervious wrote: You conveniently forget about stuff like this: Yes, I've mentioned this before. I don't go around showing all the good things that people do. Scum look good until they slip up. You point out the slip-ups, not the good posting/voting And we ended up doing exactly this, allowing us to get 2 freaking mafia members overnight. I'd be a terrible mafia player if I was suggesting things like this..... Not to mention I was one of the first to switch my votes to a mafia member..... Yes, this is called busing. It's laughable that you try to take credit in their lynch, when they were both 80% scum in the eyes of the town right then. Isn't it funny that Bumatlarge decides that he's going to die RIGHT after you post that? Almost like you were busing him... I already saw the exact "clue" you saw in me by that point..... And I pointed out some decent logic as to why we shouldn't lynch Beneather (in case we were wrong). As soon as it was confirmed that he was a mafia, and we weren't gonna lynch LD, I was one of the first to switch to voting for him..... I was playing very smart for a mafia, right? ..... Really? You're pointing the fact that you were mafia, and voted against a confirmed scum? And that would be bad mafia play? No! That's exactly what mafia would do. When there's no chance of saving a scum buddy, you are the first person to vote for them Yes. The clues definitely looked like they pointed to Jackal..... That clue was brought up by Coagulation: Yes, I'm not saying that you made up the clue, but you pushed it. That's what mafia like to do, right? Snowball stuff like that? So are you suggesting that it's gotta be me and Coag (nemesis also played a part iirc, and he was already confirmed to be a non-red) as the last 2 mafia? Cause I wasn't the only person who thought it was a decent connection..... And I voted for Coag earlier on..... Really, if you think you're so good at analysis, how come you really fucked it up here? I was not one of the people who started the bandwagon..... Plus, I didn't stay on Jackal - a "better" option came up (who ended up being a greenie, unfortunately). lol, Coag is Coag Nemesis was the other lynch candidate. Of course they are going to push those clues. Also, Coag is dead, as you very well know. It's not to say that I'm not still suspicious of Jackal, but, recently, there's been better options to vote for. Right now, it's LD so we can make the game go on as long as possible. Agreed. I'll push for you tomorrow. Also, about the RNG mayor - any mafia would want to snag your position..... The rest would be vying for a spot as a bodyguard..... Of course I think it's a better idea to get someone randomly for the position (assuming the mafia try for the position harder than the average townie, since they want the position more, they're more likely to get it). From a statistical point of view, we're less fucked. And you freaking picked a mafia as bodyguard yourself..... It doesn't exactly help your case there..... So, another point about the scummy RNG mayor? It's logic is "Scum would own if they had this, so chances are they will try to get it." What about the rest of the town? You know the other 21 people that should realize this and say "If scum got the mayor, we'd be screwed if they got it. Better try for it. Personally, think that the reason that this keeps coming up is because the scum didn't realize that they should run for mayor until it was too late, and they wish they had. So they are taking the consolation prize of being able to FoS people who ran/distract the town. Of course I don't think you're a mafia anymore. You ended up snagging us 2 red kills. Sick job. But it'd be a waste of a lynch on me..... But, of course, you won't figure that out till we win, or you end up lynching me anyways..... Meh, I dont' really feel like analyzing more of this BS right now..... I'd like to see you start. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
That last line came off a bit harsher than it needed to be. The point I was trying to make was that nothing of what you did was analysis. It was a redirection of attention away from the posts that I brought up, to posts that you wanted people to see. A defense, but not an analysis. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
If you actually want us to consider lynching the other, consider doing some behavioral analysis. Cause I will use whatever sway I have with the town to stop it from lynching based off of clues like you two are trying to do On February 07 2011 03:03 Jackal58 wrote: Impervious isn't scum. Cubed's partner in crime is Divinek. Only scum would freak out like he did at the prospect of keeping LD alive one more day. There plan never considered town using LD to off another scum at night. No, at this point I think that it's pretty obvious that town is now in the lead. LD will start helping the mafia now. He may have been neutral with 3 mafia left, but with 2, the town is certainly in the lead. He helped us get into this position, and I'm grateful for that, but the best play for town is to lynch LD. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Oh, and one more bit of information I was given: The mafia tried to role-block me last night. Yeah, I know, it can't be done, so why try? On the other hand, this does prove that GMarshal is town...if anyone was still doubting. (I didn't say this earlier, because I wasn't told earlier) Don't get too distracted trying to figure out what that means, but who knows, It might be helpful. (Also means that the RB'er is still alive) | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On February 07 2011 12:13 zerroth wrote: mafia count this night kavdragon Submitted. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Is there anything that the town really needs to know? We have the # of Mafia (Providing there aren't any more modkills tonight), and we know that there aren't any more SK's. That leaves Blues/Greens. Would anyone object to my using it to my own ends tonight? Oh, btw. I kind of doubt there are any DT's at this point, but would you please claim if you are? Your information would be most helpful. I'm afraid that there's no real point for vig hits at this point. I'd rather you save your shot, so that no one important dies. I'd tell you who not to shoot, but that would just give the mafia a list of who to kill, so....Sorry, but I don't see it helping at this point. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On February 08 2011 04:43 Jackal58 wrote: If we're playing a game with clues I have to believe the clues carry more weight than analysis. This is rapidly becoming paralysis by analysis. -_- On February 14 2010 12:16 Ace wrote: We should NEVER rely on clues are our primary weapon for catching Mafia. Remember they are based on interpretation NOT fact. This is why I said it DOES NOT MATTER how many more people in the game are Mafia, it's always going to come down to guesswork. At the very least we can focus on behavior. Look at all the people vying for clue work when it's an easily acceptable fact by anyone that has played before that it's a bad idea. On February 08 2011 04:48 Jackal58 wrote: I have no objections to you using census for whatever purpose as long as you share the info Eh....no. I'm not going to promise any sharing of information. Not publicly anyways. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
If I die, then we know that they are mafia. There's absolutely no good reason to check them at this point. That was one of the things that tipped me off about Bum. Why would he check Beneather? If I die, he's mafia. Waste of a check. There is so much evidence to the contrary that it's not worth considering 2 SKs. The chances of stacking hits that long, that often...Sorry, no. On recent deaths: I'm hoping, and praying that Coag wasn't the medic. Whoever is medic, if you are still here, please protect GMarshal. I'm similarly hoping that Beneather was the roleblocker. If you get RB'ed tonight, please claim it asap. If you get hit, and survive, please claim it asap. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
| ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
| ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
| ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Lynch this scum. With Gmarshal gone, I'm the obvious next one to go. If there was ever a medic in the game, I could use protection. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
The mods apparently mis-worded the OP, where is says that I cannot be targeted by the Role-blocker. I just found this out too. I've argued the point with the Mods, but they've come to the conclusion that the mayor would be too powerful if he could not be roleblocked. I'm not happy about it, but they are the mods. As i've said, I'm too busy with school to do any good analysis right now, but it's about time the town stepped up and looked into it as well. I've suggested Impervious for the lynch. If you don't think he's mafia, go through and read his posts. Just read them if you don't have time to analyse them. He's heavily connected with known Mafia, and has yet to contribute any thing of note. He fits the bill for mafia quite nicely. I've also provided a decent clue pointing to him. If you aren't convinced, that's fine. With two mafia, and ten town, we can afford a mislynch or two. Here's what needs to happen: Inactives need to be pressured. We can't afford to have mafia hiding among them at this point. Everyone needs to be posting lots. This late in the game, it's really hard for mafia to post without contradicting themselves. If you don't find Impervious guilty, then I'd strongly recommend Zerroth, DivineK, and Mr.Wiggles be lynched (in that order) unless they can show some contribution that would change our minds. Again, we have a few lynched before we NEED to get a kill. My suspect list: Impervious Kenpachi Darmousseh Not Jackal As far as clues go, it would be a good idea for people to go through and figure out what clues there are, and which of them refer to dead people. Then see if you can pin the others onto someone. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Funny you should mention that picture. It comes from the same wiki project that the picture found in the main post comes from. AMSU Health... Also, on the subject of clues, remember all the dog clues? http://www.divinek-9.com/ Wouldn't it be funny if they weren't all pointing to Beneather, who so obviously has a dog on his profile? | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On February 09 2011 01:39 Jackal58 wrote: I know. That's where I was looking. I also googled Divinek and got all the dog references. But I've been told clues are useless.  Please don't take what I'm saying to mean that Clues are useless. I'm only saying that clues should not be our PRIMARY method for catching scum. Mafia can very easily influence clues. Mafia can't easily influence good analysis. Behavioral analysis is the best tool we have, clues can help that tool, not supplant it. | ||
| ||
StarCraft 2 Stormgate Dota 2 League of Legends Counter-Strike Super Smash Bros Heroes of the Storm Other Games Grubby7253 ScreaM3685 summit1g1686 Beastyqt1336 Dendi1267 KnowMe1123 B2W.Neo824 XBOCT372 ArmadaUGS170 Dewaltoss58 Trikslyr52 JuggernautJason35 Chillindude23 ViBE20 Organizations Other Games StarCraft 2 Other Games StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War |
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](https://amsu-health-5r.wikispaces.com/file/view/ecstasy_pill_collage1.jpg/33900729/ecstasy_pill_collage1.jpg)
