|
Deadline for night actions over. Leaving my death message if vig somehow makes a miracle shot.
Coag is traitor. Don't lynch him.
My previous night actions can be found below.
On night 4:
Nightkill: Mr. Wiggles
Rolecheck: Impervious
My last advice if I die (order in lynch priority from least to greatest).
Coag: Traitor, don't lynch him.
Impervious: Was very confidence in his analysis that I am mason. Although I don't agree with his analysis, what matters is that he believes in them. From his stand point, those are good reasons why I am mason. He gave up the lynch because he got confused in the situation.
SouthRawrea: He supported to lynch me. He also gave out his unique reason why I am mason. If he is the vig, he shouldn't give out any reason why I am mason.
GeorgeClooney: Lurker/inactive. Remember that vig didn't make any shoot before tonight? There could be the possiblity that he stack nightkill with me every/some night but probability of that happening is low. Vig also have no reason to shoot hesmyrr because he is the most likely player to be recruited by mason due to his experience.
-------------------
Let me organize information.
All mason died.
Last night, 2 mason died. Because I didn't shoot that night, it is impossible for 2 mason to die unless they tried converting me. Because they tried converting me, all masons are killed.
-------------------
Some pms I had with Coag after all mason died. Bolding some names for easier reading.
Original Message From LunarDestiny:
6players in the game. Vig have 20% of shooting me.
There are 4 other players that I am not 100% sure of. Choosing to lynch one of them would be bad.
If we miss, that would increasing vig's chance to 25%.
However, if we choose not to lynch.
During night, I kill and rolecheck two of the four unconfirmed. Leaving two.
I am confident I can lead the lynch tomorrow, killing another person.
I shoot before vig, and that would be game.
The benefit of lynching is that we get 25% of killing vig and my next night shoot would increase by 25% to 33%.
The problem is how do we convince town that you and I are not vig without good reasoning. They would also question why are we choosing to lynch.
They would give vig more information to make his shot.
I'll calculate chance of mafia winning. By equation {1-chance of losing)
No lynch.
My nightkill failing 75%.
Vig nightkill me 20%.
1-(.75*.20)=1-.15=.85=85% pretty good number.
Lynch.
Lynch failing. 75%.
My nightkill failing. 66.6%.
Vig nightkill me. 25%.
1-(.75*.666*.25)=.1248=.8752=87.52%
This is raw probability. So is worth all the trouble to have that slight increase? The process we have to go through and that will give vig more information. Not worth it.
Hide nested quote -
Original Message From Coagulation:
southrawrea is only one who you gotta worry about
lets lynch him hes prob vig
Original Message From LunarDestiny:
Please act like the Stalker? ONE TIME maybe?
You are traitor and no mason recruited you.
What I did:
night 1
Nightkill: GGQ (fool)
Rolecheck: Chaosers (Tracker, LOL I didn't vote for him)
night 2
Nightkill: Hesmyrr(mason)
Rolecheck: YOU(coag)(traitor)
night 3
Nightkill: NONE
Rolecheck: OriginalName(mason)
Going to vote for NO LYNCH.
Please be the first to vote NO LYNCH.
|
Ask me anything.
If I don't die tonight, mafia wins.
|
Impervious is traitor. I didn't die.
|
|
|
Voting SouthRawrea because I might look like vig if I pick on GeorgeClooney who is not in the game at all.
At least, SouthRawrea is active in the game. So gives him a chance.
If he counter claim as stalker. We all vote no lynch. At night, I will shoot him and he will shoot me. Whoever shoot first is Stalker.
If he or anyone don't counter claim as stalker. He will be lynched. At night, I will shoot GeorgeClooney, the last unconfirmed player.
|
WIll anyone response???
List of remaining players:
LunarDestiny - Stalker
Coagulation - Traitor
Impervious - Traitor
SouthRawrea - unknown
GeorgeClooney - unknown
|
Look at it this way. I am claiming stalker. Traitor wouldn't do it.
Lets say i am the vig, i already out myself and stalker can shoot me tonight.
|
I will take any question about my game plan. They might not be optimal, but I will try explaining them.
|
How about asking me questions?
Are you convinced that I am either stalker or vig?
|
You trying to modkill me?
Cheating:
Cheating includes (but is not limited to):
1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information.
2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town.
3. Logging on to someone else's account / looking over someone's shoulder to get their role.
4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles.
5. Posting screenshots of your inbox.
6. Posting any PM you receive from a host.
7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip.
8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts.
Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
|
Also, I am more convince that GeorgeClooney is the vig because there are good evidence that vig didn't shoot. I did all the killing. Vig may have stack kill with me but that can't happened every night.
Also, vig should shoot last night because he is the only one left.
Again, voting for SouthRawrea because he will respond. In traitor's standpoint, they are not 100% sure if I am vig or stalker. If I am vig and want to lynch the stalker, this will give SouthRawrea (the stalker in this situation to counter claim).
I am perfectly fine lynching GeorgeClooney though.
|
That is why I am calling out SouthRawrea.
If he is stalker, he should counterclaim. We all vote no lynch and we shoot each other. The one shooting first is stalker.
If he is not stalker, he lynched as vig or traitor. If he is vig, mafia wins.
If he is traitor, stalker knows who I am. Shoot me tonight.
The only flaw is GeorgeClooney is stalker. And he just go afk.
|
On January 21 2011 10:14 Impervious wrote:
That's one of the thing that bugs me tho - you're claiming that you did the kills, even though it would be much less beneficial for you to do so..... There was a risk you'd be noticed by the tracker before he got killed..... Shit happened way too fast in this game.....
Tracker died after day2.
On night 1, I target two players who are least likely to be tracked (avoid do anything to hesmyrr until night2).
I must admit that I shouldn't have shot GGQ because that would requires me to visit two people. Good chance of losing right there if Chaosers did track me and claim I visit two people and one of them died. Vig just kill me afterward.
|
On January 21 2011 10:41 Impervious wrote:
That's why you'd need to lynch one today and go for the other tonight. Otherwise, if you're wrong, and there is no lynch, the vigilante wins.
If you're the stalker, your plan is a guaranteed win.
If you're the vigilante, by claiming that I'm a traitor (which I am), you're giving yourself a 33% chance of winning. If coag is also a traitor (which I think is likely), then that jumps up to 50%. Because of how this game has gone, this would be the best move the vigilante could do.....
Assuming you're the stalker, I'm not sure which of the two would be the vigilante. SouthRawrea has been a little odd, but I really, really doubt that he wouldn't shoot at night, and hit-stacking is so unlikely. My bet is that it would be GeorgeClooney, for that reason, because he's been so inactive (relatively speaking, which would explain the lack of night actions by him). Although, I definitely understand your point about not going after GeorgeClooney.
Also, why the fuck would you check my role?
I am indifferent about choosing between SouthRawrea or GeorgeClooney as today's lynch. I just need one of them to be lynched and I can shoot the other one.
I will explain my night actions last night.
Nightkill:
Possible targets are Impervious, SouthRawrea, Mr. Wiggles, and GeorgeClooney.
I eliminate Impervious and SouthRawrea because I know they both are not mason. Yesterday, they are the first two people who want to lynch me. Normally, a vig wouldn't provide reason to lynch a possible mason. Vig also wouldn't want to start bandwagon on lynching a possible mason.
Between Mr. Wiggles and GeorgeClooney, I think Mr. Wiggles is the better player. It is unlikely that if GeorgeClooney is the vig, that he will be able to shoot me. Because I only need to survive that night to win, I shoot the better player.
Rolecheck:
Very simple. The choices are Impervious, SouthRawrea, and GeorgeClooney.
You tell me:
Who is the player who is the most active and willing to debate with me about the lynch today?
|
On January 21 2011 12:30 SouthRawrea wrote:Okay. LunarDestiny. I have no reason to CC as stalker as I am in FACT NOT STALKER  . Just out of curiosity, what makes you so sure that Impervious or Coagulation have not been converted? I assume you check Impervious today so we should confirm the order in which the actions are taken at night before making any conclusions about his roles. Not so cut and dry as I was lead to believe by reading this day's post. 4 Things: Deconduo: please clarify the order Anyone: CC stalker? GeorgeClooney: Speak up Lunardestiny: Roles
All mason died.
Two nights ago, 2 mason died. Because I didn't shoot that night, it is impossible for 2 mason to die unless they tried converting me. Because they tried converting me, all masons are killed.
Roles? You mean this?
List of remaining players: (my version)
LunarDestiny - Stalker
Coagulation - Traitor
Impervious - Traitor
SouthRawrea - unknown
GeorgeClooney - unknown
If you want to see my list of night actions, I posted it 1 minutes after deadline for night actions.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=7673479
|
I am worry that Coag might not join in. Dude needs to respond.
If I can find two people to vote with me on either SouthRawrea or GeorgeClooney, that is enough.
|
Since this is highest vote lynch and not majority lynch. The current 2 votes might be enough.
To SouthRawrea: If you believe I am Stalker, vote GeorgeClooney. I will switch and Impervious is also likely to switch. Then we don't have to wait for coag.
|
-I do not get why Tracker didn't visit hesmyrr on night 1. Everyone likes hesmyrr.
-Not surprised that GeorgeClooney is vig. Was surprised of his long post right before game ended.
-I was right about rolechecking coag. Either he starts out as town role which is a good check OR he will return as traitor.
NO MASON IN HIS RIGHT MIND WILL RECRUIT COAG. COAG IS UNREADABLE.
-Also hesmyrr mentioned he left a plan for mason. It is true that I feared that plan. Any mason want to tell me what Hesmyrr left behind before he died?
|
On January 21 2011 23:36 Impervious wrote:
I really don't like the move LunarDestiny made at the end..... He intentionally drew fire with a plan that could end up backfiring.....
If he had Coagulation say everything he said, and it failed, Coagulation would have taken the bullet at night if LunarDestiny was wrong. That would have been a nearly guaranteed win, even if shit hit the fan and there was no lynch. Thankfully GeorgeClooney has been inactive, basically.....
And some wierd things, like voting against the tracker (especially since he knew the identity)..... His gross overreaction when I called him out as a mason (essentially for some odd behavior) also didn't help.....
OriginalName being the initial mason is kinda funny. Day 2's lynch would have been bad for green either way lol.
Anyways, GG
I only need two other people to vote with me to win. Why would Coag believe me when YOU won't believe me? All Coag got from me is the same of what you got from me. I told him that he is traitor, explained my game plan, nothing else.
Voting against tracker plus a lot more things are mindgames that I am not stalker.
Also, I made it look like I given up on playing the game after I was saved from no lynched. Then I post a lot on other forums.
I succeed in posing that I am not stalker... at least to mason.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
