EPTDon't Lose Yo Mafia - Page 12
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
| ||
|
Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Or, I just thought of this before I posted, masons tried to convert stalker and there are no more masons. This would mean vig is still alive though, or else game would have ended. | ||
|
OriginalName
Canada1140 Posts
GG | ||
|
Impervious
Canada4218 Posts
## Vote No Lynch I'll let the Stalker figure this one out. | ||
|
Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
may change to SouthRawrea | ||
|
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Same reason as above. Anymore talking would only help vig choosing his shot. | ||
|
Impervious
Canada4218 Posts
 | ||
|
Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
So we're going inacative? Or shall we have idle chatter? | ||
|
Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On January 20 2011 08:24 Impervious wrote: I've gotta say, I was the first that pointed out that OriginalName was suspicious. That name was too original. | ||
|
Impervious
Canada4218 Posts
So, what's everyone's favorite beer? | ||
|
Subversion
South Africa3627 Posts
| ||
|
Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
| ||
|
SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
##Vote: No Lynch Nothing to do in this setup? Too reliant on roles. | ||
|
deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
Get your night actions in. | ||
|
deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
| ||
|
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Coag is traitor. Don't lynch him. My previous night actions can be found below. On night 4: Nightkill: Mr. Wiggles Rolecheck: Impervious My last advice if I die (order in lynch priority from least to greatest). Coag: Traitor, don't lynch him. Impervious: Was very confidence in his analysis that I am mason. Although I don't agree with his analysis, what matters is that he believes in them. From his stand point, those are good reasons why I am mason. He gave up the lynch because he got confused in the situation. SouthRawrea: He supported to lynch me. He also gave out his unique reason why I am mason. If he is the vig, he shouldn't give out any reason why I am mason. GeorgeClooney: Lurker/inactive. Remember that vig didn't make any shoot before tonight? There could be the possiblity that he stack nightkill with me every/some night but probability of that happening is low. Vig also have no reason to shoot hesmyrr because he is the most likely player to be recruited by mason due to his experience. ------------------- Let me organize information. All mason died. Last night, 2 mason died. Because I didn't shoot that night, it is impossible for 2 mason to die unless they tried converting me. Because they tried converting me, all masons are killed. ------------------- Some pms I had with Coag after all mason died. Bolding some names for easier reading. Original Message From LunarDestiny: 6players in the game. Vig have 20% of shooting me. There are 4 other players that I am not 100% sure of. Choosing to lynch one of them would be bad. If we miss, that would increasing vig's chance to 25%. However, if we choose not to lynch. During night, I kill and rolecheck two of the four unconfirmed. Leaving two. I am confident I can lead the lynch tomorrow, killing another person. I shoot before vig, and that would be game. The benefit of lynching is that we get 25% of killing vig and my next night shoot would increase by 25% to 33%. The problem is how do we convince town that you and I are not vig without good reasoning. They would also question why are we choosing to lynch. They would give vig more information to make his shot. I'll calculate chance of mafia winning. By equation {1-chance of losing) No lynch. My nightkill failing 75%. Vig nightkill me 20%. 1-(.75*.20)=1-.15=.85=85% pretty good number. Lynch. Lynch failing. 75%. My nightkill failing. 66.6%. Vig nightkill me. 25%. 1-(.75*.666*.25)=.1248=.8752=87.52% This is raw probability. So is worth all the trouble to have that slight increase? The process we have to go through and that will give vig more information. Not worth it. Hide nested quote - Original Message From Coagulation: southrawrea is only one who you gotta worry about lets lynch him hes prob vig Original Message From LunarDestiny: Please act like the Stalker? ONE TIME maybe? You are traitor and no mason recruited you. What I did: night 1 Nightkill: GGQ (fool) Rolecheck: Chaosers (Tracker, LOL I didn't vote for him) night 2 Nightkill: Hesmyrr(mason) Rolecheck: YOU(coag)(traitor) night 3 Nightkill: NONE Rolecheck: OriginalName(mason) Going to vote for NO LYNCH. Please be the first to vote NO LYNCH. | ||
|
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
If I don't die tonight, mafia wins. | ||
|
deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
Mr. Wiggles the Traitor has been killed. | ||
|
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
| ||
|
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
| ||
| ||
