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Don't Lose Yo Mafia - Page 12

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Prev 1 10 11 12 13 14 Next All
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 19 2011 22:12 GMT
#221
LOL?
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
January 19 2011 22:23 GMT
#222
vig is awesome haha. Lay in wait for two days, then kills mason. This means there is at most one mason in the game, and the vig. Stalker might already know to kill one. Things look bleak for the greens :p.
Or, I just thought of this before I posted, masons tried to convert stalker and there are no more masons. This would mean vig is still alive though, or else game would have ended.
you gotta dance
OriginalName
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada1140 Posts
January 19 2011 22:29 GMT
#223
Lololol I'm dumb
GG
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4198 Posts
January 19 2011 22:49 GMT
#224
Well, then I know what I'm doing.

## Vote No Lynch

I'll let the Stalker figure this one out.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
January 19 2011 23:19 GMT
#225
## Vote No Lynch

may change to SouthRawrea
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 19 2011 23:20 GMT
#226
##Vote: No Lynch

Same reason as above. Anymore talking would only help vig choosing his shot.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4198 Posts
January 19 2011 23:24 GMT
#227
I've gotta say, I was the first that pointed out that OriginalName was suspicious.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
January 19 2011 23:24 GMT
#228
##Vote: No Lynch

So we're going inacative? Or shall we have idle chatter?
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
January 19 2011 23:25 GMT
#229
On January 20 2011 08:24 Impervious wrote:
I've gotta say, I was the first that pointed out that OriginalName was suspicious.


That name was too original.
you gotta dance
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4198 Posts
January 19 2011 23:33 GMT
#230
Idle chatter should be fine. Obviously nothing game related.

So, what's everyone's favorite beer?
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Subversion
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
South Africa3627 Posts
January 19 2011 23:55 GMT
#231
lol holy crap what a time-waste catching up ^^ gl town lol
Hesmyrr
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Canada5776 Posts
January 20 2011 00:22 GMT
#232
Oh man I really wish I could have delayed my death for just one more night =/
"If watching the MSL finals makes you a progamer, then anyone in Korea can do it." - Ha Tae Ki
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
January 20 2011 00:54 GMT
#233
Derpderp
##Vote: No Lynch
Nothing to do in this setup? Too reliant on roles.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 20 2011 09:38 GMT
#234
Night 5, no one lynched

Get your night actions in.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 20 2011 22:18 GMT
#235
Night ends in 40min, get your actions in
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 20 2011 23:01 GMT
#236
Deadline for night actions over. Leaving my death message if vig somehow makes a miracle shot.
Coag is traitor. Don't lynch him.

My previous night actions can be found below.
On night 4:
Nightkill: Mr. Wiggles
Rolecheck: Impervious

My last advice if I die (order in lynch priority from least to greatest).
Coag: Traitor, don't lynch him.
Impervious: Was very confidence in his analysis that I am mason. Although I don't agree with his analysis, what matters is that he believes in them. From his stand point, those are good reasons why I am mason. He gave up the lynch because he got confused in the situation.
SouthRawrea: He supported to lynch me. He also gave out his unique reason why I am mason. If he is the vig, he shouldn't give out any reason why I am mason.
GeorgeClooney: Lurker/inactive. Remember that vig didn't make any shoot before tonight? There could be the possiblity that he stack nightkill with me every/some night but probability of that happening is low. Vig also have no reason to shoot hesmyrr because he is the most likely player to be recruited by mason due to his experience.
-------------------
Let me organize information.
All mason died.
Last night, 2 mason died. Because I didn't shoot that night, it is impossible for 2 mason to die unless they tried converting me. Because they tried converting me, all masons are killed.
-------------------
Some pms I had with Coag after all mason died. Bolding some names for easier reading.

Original Message From LunarDestiny:
6players in the game. Vig have 20% of shooting me.
There are 4 other players that I am not 100% sure of. Choosing to lynch one of them would be bad.
If we miss, that would increasing vig's chance to 25%.

However, if we choose not to lynch.
During night, I kill and rolecheck two of the four unconfirmed. Leaving two.
I am confident I can lead the lynch tomorrow, killing another person.
I shoot before vig, and that would be game.

The benefit of lynching is that we get 25% of killing vig and my next night shoot would increase by 25% to 33%.
The problem is how do we convince town that you and I are not vig without good reasoning. They would also question why are we choosing to lynch.
They would give vig more information to make his shot.


I'll calculate chance of mafia winning. By equation {1-chance of losing)
No lynch.
My nightkill failing 75%.
Vig nightkill me 20%.
1-(.75*.20)=1-.15=.85=85% pretty good number.

Lynch.
Lynch failing. 75%.
My nightkill failing. 66.6%.
Vig nightkill me. 25%.
1-(.75*.666*.25)=.1248=.8752=87.52%
This is raw probability. So is worth all the trouble to have that slight increase? The process we have to go through and that will give vig more information. Not worth it.
Hide nested quote -
Original Message From Coagulation:
southrawrea is only one who you gotta worry about
lets lynch him hes prob vig

Original Message From LunarDestiny:
Please act like the Stalker? ONE TIME maybe?

You are traitor and no mason recruited you.

What I did:
night 1
Nightkill: GGQ (fool)
Rolecheck: Chaosers (Tracker, LOL I didn't vote for him)

night 2
Nightkill: Hesmyrr(mason)
Rolecheck: YOU(coag)(traitor)

night 3
Nightkill: NONE
Rolecheck: OriginalName(mason)

Going to vote for NO LYNCH.
Please be the first to vote NO LYNCH.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 20 2011 23:01 GMT
#237
Ask me anything.

If I don't die tonight, mafia wins.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
January 20 2011 23:08 GMT
#238
Day 231245


Mr. Wiggles the Traitor has been killed.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 20 2011 23:10 GMT
#239
Impervious is traitor. I didn't die.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 20 2011 23:10 GMT
#240
##Vote: SouthRawrea
Prev 1 10 11 12 13 14 Next All
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