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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 13:29 annul wrote: how could he have possibly done that "maybe earlier" than end of night 2? Gets hit by mafia or madhatter bomb tonight. Missing hit, and he claims vet, most likely. | ||
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Insanious
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On December 29 2010 13:32 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 13:18 Insanious wrote: I was NOT sure LSB was a town, and I posted that at least 4 times. What I was SURE of, was that lynching LSB now was a bad idea. LSB is red, and we have a sure lynch on day 3 LSB is blue, and town is better off. Lynching LSB now was the worst person to lynch... People didn't listen. Litterally LSB was a bad lynch now, and an amazing lynch on day 3 if he couldn't prove himself. Isn't basing lynching on previous actions > lynching on poor analysis. Brocket was a very active and aggressive player when he was town. Now he wasn't even posted like anything. He is acting super different, to me this means he is a different role. Now also in Pokemafia, the mafia totally destroyed the town by being inactive. Posting like once and voting every day. This is how the mafia won in the game, and that is how I see Brocket playing this game so far. I didn't want an active, experienced player to die this early... too bad that didn't work out. In Pokemafia we(town) killed ourselves by voting for active experienced players. Town lost that game because we had no one playing at the end. We need active experienced players playing the game. Seraph hasn't posted that scummily yet, maybe he will show up more like scum later. But he sure is posting and that is better then the 15 players that are letting the mafia hide within them. Annul is green, look at the way he posted. How he went after LSB. This is just like a lot of other greens, they get vocal and voracious so that people listen to them and they can draw fire from the mafia. A mafia and a blue would be too scared to speak that much for fear of being hit in the night. He is a green. LSB was 50/50 red or blue. I gave him the benefit of the doubt, because to me he was blue until night 2 where he was going to prove he was blue. If he didn't prove it, he was red, and no harm done. This means LSB was 100% either blue or red, with a 100% chance of dying if he was red on day 3. No reason to look at him anymore, move on. This means we were looking at 2 terrible candidates and needed to look else where, how hard is that to see... I decided to read your post actually. Its full of shit. You never dismissed points when it came to why we should lynch LSB, you mumbled some shit about statistically a 1/5 shot which is kind of funny since you shouldn't actually know if their are 6 mafia or not. Logically I would say 6 is a LIKELY number but its not a definite number. On top of that you didn't even dismiss my Seraph analysis. You just keep reiterating the same old shit that doesn't make sense. Let me read pokemafia tonight after my friend leaves and I will tell you why the town lost and I guarantee you it isn't because you killed the "active" people. Dismissed what points about LSB? There were none... Please, quote why people were voting for LSB... people never posted ANY reason to vote LSB at all. Besides Annul's analysis that was just some terrible chainsaw analysis that said "LSB was spamming therefore Mafia" there was no reason to vote LSB at all. Also, I picked 6 because in the thread talking about Mafia balance they say 6 is a good number for a 30 person game. Although with a framer I could see it being 5. 4 normal mafia and then 1 godfather KP but who knows. I didn't dismiss it, I didn't even talk about it, because I had nothing to say about it... Shure, seraph might be mafia, he might not be... but he is experienced and talking and that's something that should be kept alive... its why mafia target experienced talkative players. What about my posts don't make sence? LSB is red/blue, therefore don't vote because: - if blue, we save a key town role - if red, we just pushed his kill date down to day 3 and so what... we can still do analysis on rest of town We would of been better off doing this - - - - On Brocket looking like scum: - In Pokemafia 4 of the 6 mafia didn't say a single thing all game... something like 4 posts in a 1,000 post thread each. - In Pokemafia Brocket was one of the most outspoken people all game, with around 60 posts - In Pokemafia Brocket was very active at the start of the game, having 10 posts in the first 24 hours - In this game, Brocket has said 1 token post and has voted And now: - People who defended Brocket were trying to get votes piled on LSB - LSB was blue, so Brocket looks more red - - - - On Annul being Green: - Annul looks just like Kenpachi, Zeks, Brocket from Pokemafia all Green, all talking a whole hell of a lot. - Annul stuck his neck way out there for a lynch on someone who was a blue, red wouldn't do that - Annul was opinionated something that mafia do not like being, they like being non-associative. - - - - On Paindrain: - He started the game saying Vote inactives - Then he switched to vote actives - Then switched back to vote inacitves - He started with don't vote LSB - Then vote Someone (i forget who need to look it up) - Then vote D3 - Then vote LSB - Then KILL LSB Paindrain is all over the place and I want him to explain. He doesn't look exceptionally red, but no one looks red at all... so I'm putting pressure but most likely I will be voting someone else since well no one looks that red to me. What do you need me to explain? | ||
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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
For your analysis try to: - Not quote every post, this makes it too long and people won't read it. - Don't make it super super long, information will get lost. Multiple posts is better - Try to find posts that contradict each other - Try to find posts that seem like they are saying something but are really saying nothing - Try to find posts that make it easy for someone to move from one position to another so that they wont seem like they are attached to any single player or decision This is what I think makes good analysis... and with 650 posts there has to be something there. I'll look when I get up, but hopefully someone in town will look at what is posted and give a good analysis on someone and we can find a red tomorrow. | ||
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Insanious
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On December 30 2010 11:07 bumatlarge wrote: I think it would have been better for LSB to claim green or DT if he was going to lie like that. Oh well, it tells us lots of things, but I regret voting him. I will be keeping my eyes on the votes for what I can piece together. DONT MIND ME MAFIA. Plus I dont think suggesting bomb targets is a bad idea  if we dont assume that all the hatters are robots.LSB didn't lie at all, what lie? He claimed blue, and that he could prove it after night 2... which he could, what lies did he tell? | ||
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Insanious
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On December 30 2010 11:10 bumatlarge wrote: Oh... why was everyone going on about him being a vigilante? Guess I should have read more into that. Now I have to go look back and see where this misinformation is coming from... -_- He said he was blue and could prove it after night 2. People just assumed he was vig or DT... people assumed a lot of things that got him killed  . | ||
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Insanious
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On December 30 2010 07:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Insanious during the hours before the lynch of LSB tried bandwagoning the shit out of brockit claiming he "knew" LSB was blue and how stupid we were being. The analysis on him although much shorter is a few pages back on 32 iirc. No one should EVER be so sure that someone is blue. I never said the LSB was blue, I said LSB was 100% blue or 100% red. VERY different... let me give you an analogy of what i was saying: Your new girlfriend comes up to you crying, she says that a past lay just called her telling her that he has an STD and she needs to be checked. Do you: a) Insantly dump her just incase she has an STD or b) Wait 3 days for the test results to get in. Dump her if she isn't clean. You do b so that you don't loose a terrific lay and have to go back into the world as a single man all alone. This is what I was saying for LSB. He was either RED or BLUE, and could prove his innocence if we waited. We should of waited and the lynch on day 1 was stupid. Even you said that we should wait and that lynching potential blues is a terrible idea. On top of just being sure he NEVER gave a good reason to want to switch which leads me to believe his intention was never to actually switch the vote, but to make it APPEAR that he wanted to switch the vote away from someone who was blue. I couldn't find another good lynch candidate with the active players. Trading active LSB for active player X doesn't help the town. We needed more time, so I tried to get a lurker who played VASTLY different then when he was town when I played with him lynched. A loss of a lurker doesn't hurt the town, but a loss of a blue active experienced player does... now we are down LSB (who had 100 posts already in the thread BTW so he was doing work.). He could of helped us now where Brocket is no where to be found. On top of that, even though he seriously didn't want to lynch LSB he ignored my Seraph analysis which if he used that might of switched the lynch away from LSB. I believe the reason he didn't use the Seraph analysis was because Seraph is his mafia buddy AND he had no true intention to divert the lynch. You can see similar play being used by me and Insane Mafia in regards to dealing with pandain. I actively pushed for pandains lynch but never hard enough to actually change anything. He just did it a lot more shitty. Actually I just had nothing to say about your Seraph analysis because well... again, lynching active experienced players early sucks. The mafia will kill them soon enough why do we have to go after them. I didn't even see anything that reda bout what Seraph posted anyways.Trading LSB (active and experienced) for Seraph (active and experienced) doesn't help the town at all... killing: lurker experienced, lurker inexperienced, and active inexperienced are all better options for the town. Blues + experience win games for the town... greens + lurkers lose games for the town. I was trying to mitigate damage because there were no good lynch targets day 1. Now RoL is looking at a terrible lynch target for day 2... hurting the town even more, awesome. | ||
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Insanious
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On December 30 2010 12:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Who would you propose we lynch? I am pretty sure about all 3 of you, right now I would prefer to go after Annul but I feel to get the backing on that would require very hard analysis. Tonight's hits make me think Annul is likely mafia and I can explain why. I still think you are most likely mafia but I can hold off on that judgment in favor of him. Right now, I don't have anyone I'm really looking at past Pandain. Simply due to the flip-flopping. But really, there hasn't been a lot of scum like activity going on in this thread IMHO... mostly because there isn't any activity going on at all... 4 people are dead 15 people have less than 4 posts ~5 people have between 5 - 10 posts and ~6 people make up the rest of the posts. The only people that can even be analyzed since they are the only ones that post are - Me - Annul - Pandain - You (RoL) - TheMango - Seraph Everyone else basically has less than 10 posts including /in posts, generic "im in the game" posts, and one liners. Really, the thread is long but only because Annul, me, and LSB had a 200 post conversation basically. | ||
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Insanious
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On December 30 2010 12:35 seRapH wrote: Insanious, while I appreciate you trying to get people off me you have to consider that experience doesn't necessarily make anyone good at this game. I mean just look at Coag ;D I'm not defending you saying you aren't red... I'm just saying that losing experienced players hurts the town period. In pokemafia we lost almost every one of our active posters in the first 2 night phases... this left the town with no one really to look to for help. I'd rather keep active town voices alive, even if they are really mafia. It gives the lurkers something to read, and possibly they can actually come across something fishy and analyze it for the rest of town. Once you end up with no one talking, and there being like ~20 posts in a whole day phase the game is over, nothing to look at, mafia wins. With 15 lurkers, losing any of the active players hurts... just cuts the amount of discussion going on, and the number of chances for mafia to slip up. | ||
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On December 30 2010 14:10 annul wrote: + Show Spoiler + On December 30 2010 07:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: When it comes to Annul, I was really trying to find another candidate who I could put up as a MH bomb because when I divide the player list by 3 instead of 2 it GREATLY reduces the chance of overlapping bombs. On top of that the way Annul got support is a little fishy, I need to do more analysis on it but it is still extremely strange. The bandwagon IMO should never have been so lopsided in favor of LSB even though I think LSB was suspicious, it is really hard to gather a following on a day 1 lynch UNLESS you are mafia. With that justification and an indepth analysis of Annul being very time consuming at the moment I would prefer to put a bomb on him while doing a further analysis later. "lets kill annul but i cant really explain why" preempting the retort: "but i did explain why!" more than 5 or 6 or whatever players joined my wagon. this means IF your contention would be right, then at least some townies also agreed (hell, YOU did). therefore my logic was not bad. LSB lied hardcore to save his ass. so, if the town agreed, why does that mean i am mafia? LSB didn't lie at all in any way shape or form. The people that lynched him just didn't believe him. LSB told nothing but the truth, don't try and tell people that he didn't to turn his lynch away from you... | ||
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Insanious
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On December 30 2010 14:18 annul wrote: he said he could prove =beyond a shadow of a doubt= his blueness by the end of night 2, "maybe earlier". no role exists in this game that can do that. For before night 2 = gets hit by mafia / DT checks him For after night 2 = ask a vig to hit him, he lives, he is vet. He proves beyond shadow of doubt that he is a vet... done and done. | ||
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Insanious
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Either he proves he's blue. He lives. He doesn't, he dies. This could of happened on night 3, wouldn't of hurt the town at all. It could of only helped by saving a blue for more nights, or saved a blue for the rest of the game. Litterally no down side for the town... so we should of waited. I would of killed him instantly on day 3 if I wasn't 100% sure he was blue. Waiting helped the town, killing him gave us nothing. This is what I was saying... there was no point where I KNEW he was blue. And there was no point that I said I was 100% sure he was blue until after he died... Read my posts, and don't put words in my mouth. | ||
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On December 30 2010 15:20 Mr.Zergling wrote: Also, were is pandain? sleeping probably, like I will be in 10 minutes. Not everyone can be on 24/7 . | ||
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On December 31 2010 01:47 Jackal58 wrote: Apparently I've killed everybody. I win. :p SCUM TELL!!!!!!!!!!!1111111oneoneoneone KEEL HIM! | ||
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Insanious
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Maybe after we finally get some discussion going we can actually have some candidates for double lynching. | ||
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Insanious
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First, I want to start by saying Meapak_Ziphh has 15 posts from a thread with around 845 posts in it. This puts him in the bottom 10 for amount of posts in the thread. Now, onto the actual analysis. On December 27 2010 17:06 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Hey everyone just read through, nice day post that one was a gem. Anyway while I agree with most of what Pandain has to say I believe LSB said almost the same thing as well... little chummy you two  Anyway the votes for pandain are stupid, it's waaaay too early to have a bandwagon people (and c'mon you guys are vets for the most part). Now, I found it interesting that the first actual FoS on LSB came from Meapak_Ziphh. We all attributed the FoS to Annul, but really the first post in the thread that called LSB possibly red was one done by Meapak. Although it was done in a way that allowed him to distance himself from the FoS. But the FoS was the first in the thread, and the bandwagons on both Pandain and LSB took off soon after this post. On December 28 2010 05:17 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: LSB; while Annul doesn't have a very strong case against you, your defense was pretty pathetic. I've had a bad gut feeling about you for a while, it's not something I was planning on voting on but Annul did bring out all of the problems I had been having with your posts. I'm not voting you quite yet but I would like you to give more than one line answers whenever someone puts a fos on you. Consider this post a +1 for Annul's case against LSB. I'd like to see you take some time in defending yourself and not just brush it off because there were some good points in annul's post. Now it is true that Annul was the first to bring a case against LSB, it was not a very strong one. Even Meapak_Ziphh points out that the case against LSB was a rather weak one. On December 28 2010 15:46 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I know people are just pressure voting opz but I find it odd how many people signed up for that so quickly. Anyway I'm going to vote for LSB. Annul's analyis isn't that bad considering the game only just started and it seems pretty dumb for a mafia to be that vocal right off the bat. For me the first lynch is always more gut feeling then solid evidence because of how little we have to base our decision off of but in this case I'm feeling pretty good about lynching LSB. Especially since I'm not the only one who saw LSB as suspicious and felt something was off. A couple posts later, and now the case against LSB is "not bad" and worthy of a vote. Before the case was not strong enough, and was only worth of a FoS. But suddenly it changed into Vote worthy. The problem I see with this is, nothing was added to the case at all. No more analysis, just more "no you" posts. On December 30 2010 14:45 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Insanious you are waaay to certain that you KNEW LSB was blue. Only the mafia KNOW anything 100%. You were ready to believe his blue claim right off the bat which is pretty stupid because it just as easily could have been a mafia lying to save his ass. What I find really strange as well is that you continue to try and say "Well LSB could have proved himself" when clearly he really couldn't without help from the town. Yes we could have had a vigi hit him but boy that would be the dumbest vigi hit ever. Think about it, LSB says "hey vigi hit me I'm a vet" the vigi goes "ok" and bam we lost one of our best options to come back if we're losing in the late game. The benifits of having a vigi with a hit way outweigh the benifits of having a confirmed townie (not even a blue at this point because he's lost his extra life). We can go further with this idea, the mafia could have hit him on the night that the vigi was supposed to hit him thus not only losing a vigi hit but killing a blue as well. In short, LSB lied, he had no way to confirm himself and he just blew his own defense. You're trying to portray yourself as protown because you were against the lynch but you've over emphasised this to the point that it appears scummy. You've also continued to harp on LSB's claim as a point in your favor which doesn't look good either because there was no way to know for sure if LSB was telling the truth although you were all too willing to believe him for my liking. Then, right after the death of LSB. One of the strongest proponents of the LSB lynch, suddenly turns on the defendants of the lynch. Meapak went from "LSB is scum, kill him now" to "anyone who thought that LSB wasn't scum is scum". It just doesn't flow correctly to me... the other LSB proponents (like Annul) didn't suddenly accuse me of being scum. As well, the other people who think I am scum weren't so strongly for the LSB lynch. This type of connection between anti-LSB lynch = scum from someone so pro-LSB lynch just doesn't seem right to me. On December 31 2010 14:05 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Hey guys. I just finished compiling a very long and very interesting spread sheet analyzing the voting patterns. I'll share it once it has been proofed and I might wait for a few more votes so it will be even more useful. It doesn't tell me anything conclusive right now but for those with the time I'd encourage everyone to read the voting thread in it's entirity. There's some fascinating stuff there that. Here is some random trivia: Do you know who has voted the most? If my numbers are correct (don't take my word yet I'm still checking everything) the answer to this question is Pandain coming in on top with 6 votes. Do you wanna know who has been voted for the most? Ironically enough if you discount our first lynch target who was voted for by 12 different people, Pandain is the most voted for living person with 10 votes. Oh I've got lots of fun facts. Do you know how many people were the only vote on their target when the votes were tallied? The answer is.... five people were the only votes on their target when the voting ended. Who was the first vote for LSB? How about Brocket? Well those awards go toAnnul and Insanious. I've only just started but before I'm done I'm sure I'll have lots more fun trivia and maybe a few reds for everyone :D And then Meapak's final post seems REALLY scummy to me. "I have secret hidden data based on voting, that I will share eventually but not now, so keep me alive so that I can share it later." It seems like a post that tries to give reason to not kill Meapak without actually adding anything to the town. As well, this post is filled with a lot of FoS's that are connected to data that is not relevant to finding scum. "Insanious was the first one to vote Brocket" ya no duh, I was the one that tryed to get him lynched instead of LSB. "Annul was the first to vote LSB" which is interesting... since the first one to suspect LSB being mafia was Meapak, but I digress. "Pandain has had the most votes on him and remained alive" alright, so... This has nothing to do with finding reds, all it does is FoS people, and confuse the town into thinking there is actual reason to lynch these people. - - - - To me, Meapak seems scummy. He is posting in a way that distances himself from lynches he starts, he attacks those that disagreed with him even if right. Then he posts a non-sense post that does nothing but try to confuse the town. This seems red to me. You can agree or disagree... but its going to be my first vote in this game based on analysis instead of simply a desire to save someone else in the game. | ||
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Insanious
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On December 31 2010 14:05 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Hey guys. I just finished compiling a very long and very interesting spread sheet analyzing the voting patterns. I'll share it once it has been proofed and I might wait for a few more votes so it will be even more useful. Why share this information? It doesn't help the town to know that someone is looking at voting patterns, anyone can do that. Not to mention, it is way too early to tell anything from the current votes cast yet. This will be useful on say day's 4 and 5 but not day 2. Now another thing I want to know is what does "one it has been proofed" mean? Once he has checked to make sure it is accurate? how long does that take with a 90 post thread filled 95% with one liners. This to me just seems like a way to tell the town that he is contributing without actually you know... contributing. "I am doing research on my own, so don't worry I am helping... but I can't tell you what I found yet because it doesn't say anything yet." It doesn't tell me anything conclusive right now but for those with the time I'd encourage everyone to read the voting thread in it's entirity. Basically telling everyone that what he has done means absolutely nothing, so don't read too much into it. There's some fascinating stuff there that. Here is some random trivia: Do you know who has voted the most? If my numbers are correct (don't take my word yet I'm still checking everything) the answer to this question is Pandain coming in on top with 6 votes. So then after telling everyone that your numbers mean nothing yet, you FoS Pandain here... with numbers that mean nothing. So what if Pandain switches his vote around a lot, it doesn't mean anything at all. It doesn't make Pandain scummy or town like, it means nothing, why include it? Do you wanna know who has been voted for the most? Ironically enough if you discount our first lynch target who was voted for by 12 different people, Pandain is the most voted for living person with 10 votes. Again useless data NOW, this means nothing after one day. This data means a lot LATER because it shows who's been saved the most during a lynch, but after a single day it just FoS's Pandain without actually meaning anything. Once again, more useless data to confuse the town. Oh I've got lots of fun facts. Notice he doesn't say useful facts, nor does he point out once in this post that anything he just said meant anything at all. This is just it... its kinda nice to know, but means nothing when it comes to finding scum. Do you know how many people were the only vote on their target when the votes were tallied? The answer is.... five people were the only votes on their target when the voting ended. Again, so what. You don't name anyone, you don't say this means anything, its just again more numbers there to make this seem useful when it really isn't, Who was the first vote for LSB? How about Brocket? Well those awards go toAnnul and Insanious. I've only just started but before I'm done I'm sure I'll have lots more fun trivia and maybe a few reds for everyone :D So then again you FoS Annul and myself... even though that means nothing. Annul posted an analysis on LSB after reading YOUR FoS on LSB and voted LSB accordingly. I was trying to save LSB so I started a vote on someone I thought seemed scummy because of past posting habits. Again, so what... we oppenly started the voting against these two people, this means nothing when it comes to finding scum. Here, this post does nothing but FoS Pandain, Annul, and my self. It tries to make Meapak_Ziphh seem useful to the town, without actually adding anything to the town. He is using good mafia analysis techniques (voting analysis) poorly (too early) to point out useless facts (everything in this thread) in order to look like he contributes without doing it. This post is incredibly scummy if I've ever seen a scummy post. | ||
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On December 31 2010 14:42 orgolove wrote: And don't make the mistake of... I think it was XXXIV or something like that, where town only used one. With a game where mafia has this many KP, town needs to use the double lynch - The longer we wait the larger the breath of the reds will be. We need the double lynch. The problem is we don't even have 1 good lynch candidate, let alone 2. We need more people that are suspicious to lynch. Who would you lynch right now? I can only think of 1 good person and then the other will be... some random that I don't want to lynch but need to vote for. This is a terrible idea... town KP is good when directed, but when you are just lynching for the sake of lynching that's when bad things happen. | ||
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On December 31 2010 14:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Excuse me? I never fos'd any of those people who I mentioned in my above post. Making a post going "I'm making a huge spread sheet that is going to help find reds" and then bolding people's names looks to me like a way to FoS people without actually saying it... its FoS by association and you know that, don't try to pretend you don't. It's just pointing out stuff I found when looking for patterns in the voting thread which I thought were funny. Out of all the people who voted against LSB because you do seem pretty red to me. I didn't attack you BECAUSE you supported LSB but HOW you supported LSB. I was the only one actively supporting LSB... there was no one else to attack during that besides me. I don't know how you think I was the first person to fos LSB, my comment was more tongue and cheek and if you consider that an fos then I might as well have fos'd pandain as well. I did say you FoS'd Pandain if you read my post. Saying that the bandwagons of "Pandain and LSB followed soon after" also, you don't have to type FoS to FoS someone... any time you say "I'm keeping an eye on player X" or "Player X looks suspicious" that is an FoS... You my friend are actually the one trying to confuse the town, I never said I suspected any of the people I mentioned in my above post. You're putting words in my mouth and making it sound like I have some scary secret I'm keeping from the town. If people really want I'll find somewhere to upload this big scary thing so everyone can see it (I'll give you a hint, it's just a spread sheet showing who voted who). Dude, your post makes it seem like people should be suspicious of the people you bolded. Read what you wrote and how your wrote it. You didn't say "this data means nothing but was interesting" you said "I'm making a spreadsheet to find reds, and look what I found..." you FoS'd people based on how you posted, not on what you said. 10% of Mafia is what you actually post 90% of Mafia is how you post | ||
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Vigilantees should of hit lurkers DTs check lurkers We should lynch Meapak and Mr.Zergling and thats how today should go... BTW, anyone who through RoL was red was a dumbass... RoL spearheaded the lynch on Annul, no mafia would kill their own godfather thats just stupid... so either the mafia double hit RoL or we have a Vig who killed the strongest town left alive... /rage, and I wanted to go comotose on this game since we got two mafia by day 2... but apparently I need to keep playing now, thx a lot RoL... wait... wtf were our medics doing? RoL was an obvious hit, why did no medics protect RoL... wtf is this town doing... /RAGE RAGE RAGE RAGE... *cries* Alright back to the game, I guess, time to actually go back to looking at what people have been saying since I analyzed meapak and everyone ignored it. | ||
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