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On January 10 2011 07:58 ilovejonn wrote:
Yeah, I must admit I've been pretty bad this game. Haven't done shit analysis because I've been doing a whole lot of other stuff during my winter break and now I have to go back to school again. Also, I followed RoL's analysis because it was SPOT ON, and it really amazed me, so I didn't bother to do one.
Anyways, I find it weird that Barundar and Pandain are alive for so many nights. Could the medic have protected him all along? Are the mafia trying to make us kill each other by purposely not killing them? Are THEY the mafia? I don't know. All I can say is I am definitely not mafia. If a "real" DT checked me before or checks me now, they'll know for sure. If town feels the need to waste a vote on me to be on the safe side, I would say go ahead, since you guys still have a double lynch left. But surely it will just waste your vote.
Ok, so who do you think we should lynch? Why? Looking through your post history, you said something about lynching Mr. Zergling, do you still think we should lynch him?
Anyway, for now I am going to vote for soulfire. He's basically been saying that he's a noob all game and that he doesn't have any opinions because he is a noob. Now, I have no idea whether he is mafia or not, but the point is it is impossible to tell at the moment. I'm going to ask him to analyze someone or at least give an opinion on someone. Even though he's a noob doesn't mean he can't at least have a gut feeling on someone. Since pandain is already voting for soulfire, hopefully it will pressure him to give his opinion more effectively.
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Soulfire, TheMango, Mr. Zergling, and DTA are all the same. They post nothing and don't even really defend themselves when attacked, they just state that they are innocent. All of them could be mafia, or none of them, I have no idea because they don't actually have any opinions or contribute anything. Mr. Zergling is especially striking me as suspicious, because I think he has been scared by being under pressure on Day 2 and he has posted virtually nothing since then so as to remain under the radar.
But, as it stands, I am going to keep my vote on soulfire, if only to show that if you promise to post and then don't I won't just back off. I also think that soulfire is a worse offender than DTA, at least DTA posted an analysis and thus demonstrated an interest in town while soulfire has only defended himself.
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Ok, first off, I am really pissed at Soulfire. He said he was going to make a longer post so some people got off him and then he just never posted again. He needs to be lynched on principle. Also, he is way red as others have noted.
Second, I am going to vote for Mr. Zergling. He was pressured a bunch during Day 2 but eventually was let go for annul. He then proceeded to switch his votes around off of annul as orgolove noted earlier. Pretty scummy so far, right?
Since then, during Day 3 I believe, Barundar challenged him for being so inactive and this was his response:
On January 04 2011 14:29 Mr.Zergling wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2011 13:18 Barundar wrote:
About trusting me I have been open on who I'm working with. If you want to be sure of the people I trust, you can kill me and see for yourself. I'm not telling anyone what to do, but after I switched my vote to annul, LunarDestiny PM'ed me he would help me push, on his own initiative. Pandain I'm working close with, not exactly hiding that.
I was wrong on both OpZ and RoL, making me less confident in my analysis of Mr.Zergling. But when Zergling came out after we started pressuring annul, thats when I thought we where right about him. It feels counter-intuitive to let zergling go now for those reasons, would mean we just got lucky on annul. And he still doesn't actually contribute. I made alot of posts after annul died, because lunar was pressuring me
Barundar rightly called Mr. Zergling out on this:
On January 04 2011 14:55 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2011 14:29 Mr.Zergling wrote:On January 04 2011 13:18 Barundar wrote:
About trusting me I have been open on who I'm working with. If you want to be sure of the people I trust, you can kill me and see for yourself. I'm not telling anyone what to do, but after I switched my vote to annul, LunarDestiny PM'ed me he would help me push, on his own initiative. Pandain I'm working close with, not exactly hiding that.
I was wrong on both OpZ and RoL, making me less confident in my analysis of Mr.Zergling. But when Zergling came out after we started pressuring annul, thats when I thought we where right about him. It feels counter-intuitive to let zergling go now for those reasons, would mean we just got lucky on annul. And he still doesn't actually contribute. I made alot of posts after annul died, because lunar was pressuring me How many times do I have to repeat myself? You only come out to defend yourself, or in the case of annul, to question our reasons for switching to him. You aren't responding to my PM's. If you are town please stop acting up, and give me something I can work with. Contributing is not the number of posts. It's the ammount of reasons, opinions, input and ideas you come forward with. It has nothing to do with activity.
Mr. Zergling never responded. Since then, he has posted 6 times. Only one of them held an actual opinion:
On January 09 2011 06:54 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Im all for getting rid of Shockeyy
Which of course has no reasoning behind it. And this was the longest of the bunch:
On January 06 2011 14:01 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Well, at least greens..............................................................................................
The mafia won't NK me, because I serve as a great distraction/lynch redirection...
lol
Where he is excusing himself for not being NKed by stating that he is a great distraction. He is responding to an attack that isn't even there ("Why weren't you NKed?"). If he were town, he wouldn't feel the need to reflexively respond to a NK post that way.
I think all this inactivity is the result of Mr. Zergling being pressured hard on Day 2 and now he's just keeping quiet hoping that whenever anyone calls him out if he doesn't respond we'll just move on to a different target.
Anyway, these are my two picks for the day pending further developments.
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So, I did some math:
The split right now is likely 7 townies and 3 mafia. If we double mislynch today then we are down to 5 townies. Then, there are would be 2 NK so, barring a medic save or a vet hit we'd be down to 3. And then we have lost. Let me repeat that:
If we double mislynch today and there isn't a medic save or vet hit tonight, we lose.
What does this mean? Mafia are much more likely to strongly push lynches and take risks today, as they will win if they can lynch two towns. Therefore, we need to be very careful with orgolove's suggested plan. If orgolove is red, then he has just picked two green players that seem particularly scummy to lynch, hope town sheeps with him, and then when they both flip green there are no consequences because he just won the game for the reds. Because of this, we should try to lynch someone other than TheMango or Soulfire. I don't care which doesn't get lynched (orgolove's case for both is pretty convincing, to be honest) but only one of them at most should because if they are both town then orgolove just won the game for mafia. I also think it is suspicious that as soon as orgolove posted that, three other people immediately followed his lead (ilovejohn, Mr. Zergling, and Jackal58, although Jackal58 since changed one of his votes to pandain). This, to me, looks like mafia is jumping on a green bandwagon which means one or both of TheMango and Soulfire are probably green.
I still think Mr. Zergling is a likely red especially given the bandwagon, and ilovejohn and jackal58 are also much more on my radar now given their quick jumping on the bandwagon. So, I'm going to switch my second vote from soulfire to ilovejohn for now (since jackal58 at least changed his vote off of soulfire).
TLDR; Orgolove could be mafia, don't let both soulfire and TheMango die.
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I am going to switch my vote to Jackal58 because he was in on the bandwagon, it looks like no one else is going to vote for ilovejohn, and I don't want both TheMango and soulfire lynched. At least Jackal is on everyone's radar. I might not be back before deadline and I want to consolidate the votes.
I'm not going to vote for pandain because I think he is town. He has been posting frequently, has fostered discussion, and led the lynch on the godfather, for god's sake. He missed a bunch, but at this point it is too late to lynch for messing up; we need to lynch red tonight. There are definitely scummier people.
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On January 14 2011 05:54 why wrote:
I am going to switch my vote to Jackal58 because he was in on the bandwagon, it looks like no one else is going to vote for ilovejohn, and I don't want both TheMango and soulfire lynched. At least Jackal is on everyone's radar. I might not be back before deadline and I want to consolidate the votes.
I'm not going to vote for pandain because I think he is town. He has been posting frequently, has fostered discussion, and led the lynch on the godfather, for god's sake. He missed a bunch, but at this point it is too late to lynch for messing up; we need to lynch red tonight. There are definitely scummier people.
Given that both pandain and TheMango (the two people who were voting for Jackal) have either switched to ilovejohn or expressed interest voting for ilovejohn since the above post, I am going to keep my vote on ilovejohn for now.
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On January 14 2011 06:12 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2011 05:54 why wrote:
I am going to switch my vote to Jackal58 because he was in on the bandwagon, it looks like no one else is going to vote for ilovejohn, and I don't want both TheMango and soulfire lynched. At least Jackal is on everyone's radar. I might not be back before deadline and I want to consolidate the votes.
I'm not going to vote for pandain because I think he is town. He has been posting frequently, has fostered discussion, and led the lynch on the godfather, for god's sake. He missed a bunch, but at this point it is too late to lynch for messing up; we need to lynch red tonight. There are definitely scummier people. Which bandwagon was that?
On January 12 2011 14:26 Mr.Zergling wrote:
##Vote Soulfire
##Vote TheMango
On January 12 2011 14:27 orgolove wrote:
##Vote: TheMango
##Vote: Soulfire
On January 12 2011 15:52 ilovejonn wrote:
##Vote TheMango
##Vote Soulfire
On January 12 2011 21:25 Jackal58 wrote:
##VOTE: TheMango
##VOTE: Soulfire
(I realize you then switched off of soulfire, but I'm staying on ilovejohn now anyway)
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If this game is still happening then it must be 3v2 now. It actually makes sense, that's probably why we have so few blue roles.
Townies, we need to consolidate the vote. If even one townie does not vote for a mafia today then we mislynch, since then the mafia can move their votes onto the townie.
First, I think it is likely that TheMango and Mr. Zergling are on opposite teams. If TheMango is red, then it isn't likely that Mr. Zergling would be so quick to vote for his own teammate after orgolove's analysis and he definitely wouldn't have stayed on TheMango throughout pandain's attempts to get everyone to switch off of TheMango.
If TheMango is green, well then Mr. Zergling saw a great but misinformed analysis posted by orgolove that basically giftwrapped a double-green lynch to the mafia and so he just went ahead and voted for them.
So, if TheMango is red, then the mafia team is TheMango and d3/Jackal58. This makes total sense as both d3 and Jackal last minute switched off of TheMango yesterday. I would say it is more likely that Jackal58 is the mafia since he switched 2nd (and thus knew he would save TheMango) but I'm not so sure about that point.
If TheMango is green, then the mafia team is Mr. Zergling and d3/Jackal58. Doesn't have any great support that I can think of because they haven't really interacted with one another that much.
At the moment, I am not sure which one I think is more likely. I am interested to hear everyone's thoughts.
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Welp, it looks like the mafia teams are either Mr. Zergling/Jackal or TheMango/d3. At the moment I am leaning towards d3/TheMango as the more likely choice, because of the last minute vote switch off of TheMango by d3 and Jackal (as well as orgolove's analysis). I can see one switch, but a 2nd switch happening without TheMango being mafia just seems unlikely. Also, I find d3's posting scummier than Jackal's.
Hopefully d3 will come on at some point and vote which will help clarify the issue.
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Well, I am going to vote TheMango. d3's argument is basically that it was too easy to get votes for TheMango yesterday. Of course, that argument made sense when there were 3 mafia, but now that we know there were only 2 it is much more understandable. There was only 1 other person who would have resisted TheMango's lynch, so everyone was content to vote for TheMango because he was simply pretty scummy. This confirms that TheMango/d3 is the most likely mafia team.
However, there is a danger. d3, if you are in fact town, plan to be online at the deadline tonight. If the mafia team is TheMango/Jackal58 (Jackal could be bussing TheMango to gain credibility for the lylo tomorrow), the mafia can win if Jackal last minute switches from TheMango to Mr. Zergling. If that happens, be ready to unvote Zergling and vote TheMango.
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On January 17 2011 12:51 annul wrote:
i knew my strategy of taking out the small number of good players was smart
town, just realize how much more of a rape it wouldve been if 40% my team wasnt AFK.
framer and godfather role had NO power this game, since there were no DTs. the only role the roleblocker could hit was the vig (since there were only vets and vigs). so the roleblocker was very gimp too. i dont like the role setup for this game, but alas.
btw, i knew ROL was vet on day 1 so thats why he lived. he can confirm too, i called it in AIM
lol you could have told us that, we would have doubled up on him night 2...if Opz hadn't hit him then would have been a day of confirmed RoL running around.
and framer could have let us fake claim DT if we ever had to i guess.
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Once opz was confirmed and no one claimed to him we were pretty sure there weren't many if any blues (and almost certainly no DT's). We of course knew there were only 5 mafia and so thought that would make a good balance. So we just kept roleblocking pandain because people seemed to find it suspicious. If there had been any blues we probably would have roleblocked differently.
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On January 17 2011 13:38 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2011 13:16 Pandain wrote:I actually feel at least somewhat more confident. I was suspicious of D3 because of his "contributing without really contributing", yet laid back on him because he was actually at least somewhat contributing whilst others weren't.
So I have a question to post to everyone:
Who is more suspicious:1.Those who don't contribute. 2.Those who try to contribute but are just really really bad at it. 3.Those who try to contribute but it doesn't really say much. Cause all 3 look suspicious to me. Obviously now in retrospective it seems #3 is the obvious choice, but at the time, was there anything distinguishing why/d3 from the others? Especially why, I thought he was surely pro town. On January 17 2011 13:12 Coagulation wrote:On January 17 2011 13:09 Jackal58 wrote:On January 17 2011 13:07 Pandain wrote:On January 17 2011 13:06 Jackal58 wrote:On January 17 2011 13:04 Pandain wrote:Wow I did not expect why to be mafia. He was like the only one I thought to be pro town >.> Even though I've played really horribly this game, I still feel like I've learned much more from this game than any other, mostly because of the bootcamp. I'd greatly like to thank: Ver,Incognito,BC,Flamewheel,Qatol,and especially Foolishness. If there was anyone else I'm sorry I forgot. On January 17 2011 12:57 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Lying as town only hurts the town....
I'm looking at you pandain I disagree. I still feel like that was a good move. If there had been any actual blue roles, then they would've been getting confirmed/doing their actions safely. In fact I thought we were sure to win, since I thought there would probably be like 2 dts, each of them having confirmed a person each night while I got roleblocked. It wasn't. It wasn't any good at all. Thanks for the explanation. This was actually one of the many problems I had this game. In this game it seemed the mafia were more active than the town, or at least more contributive. -.- You diverted attention from where it should have been directed. And by diverted attention I mean mine. I don't recall exactly how many times I called you a liar but it was more than 3. Don't do that. LOL who the fuck listens to pandain??? Thanks Coag. It's nice to know you always got my back. Why's Day 2 post/Seraph vote after all of the discussion on orgolove/annul was pretty scummy imo, as he sidestepped the entire discussion with only a "I want to see more proof" THAT late into the day when there was a lot of discussion. Then after the annul vote is all but decided he comes in with another post saying "well I guess I'll vote annul with you guys." I mean, I'd think that kind of scumslip goes away with inexperience, but those two posts made me facepalm pretty hard when I read them.
Yeah, the whole annul vote thing was pretty bad on my part. I didn't think too much of it at the time because that was what actually happened; I came back from work and posted. Then I went to dinner and posted when I got back. I was expecting someone to call me out on it all game, especially when orgolove did his comprehensive analysis of the votes.
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EPT
