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TL Mafia XXXIV: Pokemafia - Page 50

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:07 GMT
#981
Wait... Wow, I get what you're talking about DC.

All we do now is wait for Eiii to claim

Can I send Eiii a PM to prod him into checking this thread? If not, can you Doc H
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:08 GMT
#982
DCLXIV, did you bomb D3?
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
DCLXVI
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States729 Posts
December 19 2010 07:12 GMT
#983
No, why would I bomb someone I tried to lynch? Also I don't believe my bomb would have any effect on d3 assuming he is the SK.

Also I doubt eiii will check the thread at 2 am randomly, unless he is in some other timezone.
I can already see the ending
DCLXVI
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States729 Posts
December 19 2010 07:13 GMT
#984
Also, how did you manage to determine d3 was SK and get him to claim?
I can already see the ending
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:15 GMT
#985
That simplifies things a lot more if you didn't bomb D3

All right, I also ran through the numbers

Lynching Node and DCLXIV

Node is telling the truth.
Night 4: 7/4/1. D3 hits Eiii
Day 5: Eiii is raichu: 4/4/1, very iffy situation... Lylo all the way
Day 5: Eiii is mafia: 5/3/1 not too bad

DCLXVI is telling the truth
Night 4: DCLXVI stuck his bomb on townie: 6/4/1 LYLO
Night 4: DCLXVI stuck his bomb on scum: 7/3/1 very good chances
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:20 GMT
#986
On December 19 2010 16:13 DCLXVI wrote:
Also, how did you manage to determine d3 was SK and get him to claim?

I'm very good at guessing.

Imagine this setup. I have a hat and inside is either a big rock, or a crisp $20 bill. Now, I pose to you the question. What is inside? If you guess correctly you get what's inside

+ Show Spoiler +
You guess $20 because being correct about a big rock is worthless

I did this to Hesmyrr in Segunko Mafia
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
DCLXVI
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States729 Posts
December 19 2010 07:24 GMT
#987
I'd take the rock any day
So what do the numbers look like if we lynch node+a scummy player vs me and a scummy player. Is there anyway where it is not so likely to go into a lylo situation, or does that all just depend on trusting one of us?
I can already see the ending
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:29 GMT
#988
If we go for hit node and a scummy player, this is what the numbers look like

On December 19 2010 12:38 LSB wrote:
Day 4: 8/5/1

Miss Both
Night 4:6/5/1. Mafia Victory

Hit one, miss one
Night 4: 7/4/1
(If miss mafia) Day 5:4/4/1 LYLO
(If hit mafia) Day 5:5/3/1 Advantageous to not Double lynch

Hit two mafia
Night 4:8/3/1
(If miss mafia) Day 5:5/3/1 Advantageous to not Double lynch
(If hit mafia) Day 5:6/2/1 Very close to victory


The numbers are going to be a bit worse if we go for DC and a scummy player, with a bigger chance of immediatly loosing.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
DCLXVI
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States729 Posts
December 19 2010 07:33 GMT
#989
So if we can hit a really scummy player and node, if either of them flips red then we pretty much win right? Since if the scummy player flips red then d3 shoots eiii or me, and if node flips red we have several more confirmed townies to narrow down the suspect list. 5/3/1 and a good idea of everyones roles would win it for us right?
I can already see the ending
DCLXVI
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States729 Posts
December 19 2010 07:34 GMT
#990
And I don't really want to place the towns victory condition in the hands of my bomb if I couldn't even see d3 as SK.
I can already see the ending
Gabriel
Profile Joined December 2008
149 Posts
December 19 2010 07:37 GMT
#991
I think Node and Dinmsab do the trick for me. Suggestions?
Formerly known as Malongo http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Malongo
DCLXVI
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States729 Posts
December 19 2010 07:41 GMT
#992
On December 19 2010 16:37 Gabriel wrote:
I think Node and Dinmsab do the trick for me. Suggestions?

would you mind restating your suspicion on dinmsab? Not to knock on your scum hunting, but this is too important to risk on a hunch. What makes dinmsab stand out?
I can already see the ending
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:41 GMT
#993
Well, assuming that you didn't place the bomb on me. The bomb has a 5/12 chance of being correct*
Also, if you tell us who you placed the bomb on, it would be extreamly helpful in determing what to do.

Also, remeber, we have not yet decided who to trust. My idea of lyching Node+DCLXIV trusts no one.

+ Show Spoiler +
Technically its lower, because he chose to place the bomb before the kills were made. But that isn't really relevant.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
Gabriel
Profile Joined December 2008
149 Posts
December 19 2010 07:52 GMT
#994
On December 19 2010 16:41 DCLXVI wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2010 16:37 Gabriel wrote:
I think Node and Dinmsab do the trick for me. Suggestions?

would you mind restating your suspicion on dinmsab? Not to knock on your scum hunting, but this is too important to risk on a hunch. What makes dinmsab stand out?

I have the strongest feeling that he is mafia because i played a game with him (i joined the mafia later in the game). In few words he just doesnt post at all (i think it was mafia resurrection with bc as host, i played under malongo id).
Iif you look at his voting pattern he has been an early voter both times, hinting that he doesnt want to die to a modkill but that he is not interested into posting (he has like 3 posts). More than anything voting just too early for a bandwagonably (if thats a word) player (Gabriel).
Now it is pretty clear that he is not blue and it doesnt make sense for him to be green. He is the kind of player that just afk in that case without voting.
Formerly known as Malongo http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Malongo
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
December 19 2010 11:00 GMT
#995
I've been lurking recently because after reading through the thread each day, I just haven't found myself with any reason to post. You guys gave me a reason this time around, though..

...because today I learned that either I'm miller or node is scum! Given how fragile the current situation is I'm more inclined to believe node is just lying and trying to throw off our double lynch to all but secure a mafia victory. DC's actions recently don't make him look 100% clean, but neither do node's-- plus, I don't think it's totally believable that a dt would be lucky enough to hit mafia twice on his first two tries. :/
:3
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
December 19 2010 11:29 GMT
#996
I don't know why node would make a claim like that if he was mafia, given that they are in a pretty amazing situation right now. Its WIFOM, but I'm curious as to why he would fake it as maf.
dinmsab
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Malaysia2246 Posts
December 19 2010 12:43 GMT
#997
On December 19 2010 16:37 Gabriel wrote:
I think Node and Dinmsab do the trick for me. Suggestions?


I love you. <3
..
dinmsab
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Malaysia2246 Posts
December 19 2010 12:47 GMT
#998
On December 19 2010 16:41 DCLXVI wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2010 16:37 Gabriel wrote:
I think Node and Dinmsab do the trick for me. Suggestions?

would you mind restating your suspicion on dinmsab? Not to knock on your scum hunting, but this is too important to risk on a hunch. What makes dinmsab stand out?


Gabe hates me for voting him, that is all there is to it. I've always voted gabe because early on non of the arguments were convincing to me, I was probably the only dude or so actually voting for the dude to get lynched.

Despite how much hate he gives me, deep inside I still love gabe and his silly arguments.

Gabe for president. <3
..
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 14:45 GMT
#999
On December 19 2010 20:00 Eiii wrote:
I've been lurking recently because after reading through the thread each day, I just haven't found myself with any reason to post. You guys gave me a reason this time around, though..

...because today I learned that either I'm miller or node is scum! Given how fragile the current situation is I'm more inclined to believe node is just lying and trying to throw off our double lynch to all but secure a mafia victory. DC's actions recently don't make him look 100% clean, but neither do node's-- plus, I don't think it's totally believable that a dt would be lucky enough to hit mafia twice on his first two tries. :/

What did your role PM say? Pikachu?
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
December 19 2010 16:26 GMT
#1000
Now that I've seen comments from both of them, allow me to fess up. Know that I am doing this not to save myself, but to keep town from lynching DCLXVI and Eiii. First, understand where I'm coming from.

I am in fact Alakazam.

I lied about who I checked. Yeah yeah, I know, LAL, but hear me out.

Night 1 I checked Insanious. Night 2 I checked Brocket. Night 3 I was roleblocked, and Insanious and Brocket died. Everything I had done up until that point in the game was invalidated, and I had good reason to believe that I would be killed on the following night. (clearly, mafia had an inkling that I'm blue) By lying, I was hoping that a) if they were scum, they would do something stupid or b) they would be forced to roleclaim and give town more clear lynch targets.

I do believe that DCL and Eiii are innocent, now. DCL's frankness regarding his bombs, and the rise of Eiii combined with the lack of other players coming out of nowhere to defend them have me fairly certain that they're town. Think about it: town has figured out on their own that the best lynch would be me and DCL. Two town-aligned players. It would give mafia the win. That's why we've seen nothing in the way of interference so far.
whole lies with a half smile
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