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On December 17 2010 11:10 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not going to lie, this is starting to get real hard to follow with these huge walls of text. For example, quoting 4 separate blocks of text and replying "Meh." "Okay." "Don't care." and "But true." really takes away from your argument. Highlighting your main ideas, rather than responding to every single comment is definitely appreciated to keep the spam count low.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that we really should push for a double lynch today. I haven't seen a valid argument why this isn't a good idea.
Kavdragon, deconduo, ShoCkeyy all voted without requesting a double lynch and should be pressured to do so.
If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day.
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I feel the same way as kita-- I'm following along for the time being, but I just don't know what I can contribute -_-. It's worth noting that admitting to poor play doesn't make the posts in question any less poor or scummy or whatever they are. d3 is my lynch target of choice for the time being, but it seems like all of the arguments flying around (from all sides) aren't anything more than "You're spammy! You've been lurking! This post isn't optimally helpful!" I don't know if that's the right track to be on, but it certainly doesn't feel like a helpful discussion to me.
The double lynch doesn't feel like a good idea to me because I don't think we have enough good leads on scum. It's the end of salem all over again, with slightly lower stakes.
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Here are my expectations for today/tomorrow:
1) The mafia will try to get me lynched today, because it would limit the amount of additional information that goes into the game. At the very least they know I took their hit, and by killing me they would put the town at a loss for information with few alternatives after they remove Kavdragon, DCLXVI and whoever else has been vocal in the thread thus far that aren't on their team. For that I would watch my vote list carefully. I expect this to be the strongest possibility.
2) The mafia will push for my lynch later after swinging the vote elsewhere to make it seem like I evaded death. Once Kavdragon etc. have died they'll pull their posts and cite their arguments. They only need a few people to do this and split the vote amongst the rest. A few of them will step up to defend me for more credibility, but likely not.
3) Other possibility: I am mafia, and I am trying my best to save my ass for pointing fingers everywhere and creating confusion. I shouldn't expect anyone else to come in and save my credibility as mafia have been doing well so far just by coasting amongst the lurkers. If there is enough suspicion cast on me then the rest of mafia will vote me, but for the most part they won't really acknowledge my presence.
I acknowledge that 3) is possible, but it's not likely. I think mafia have been coasting for far too long this game and they're perfectly happy with getting me killed for town to continue to waste lynches. Instead we need to put pressure on people that aren't as active to do more. At the very best we find scum; at the very worst we have another active townie who is helping out with efforts.
For those of you that are confused as to what to do, here's something:
1. deconduo
2. BrownBear
3. Eiii
4. GGQ
5. LSB
9. dinmsab
11. DCLXVI
12. Ghrur
14. Node
15. KtheZ
16. tube
17. chaoser
18. Oceanic
19. Gabriel
20. Insanious
22. Shockeyy
23. seRapH
24. Kavdragon
26. Infundibulum
27. Pandain
28. Brocket
29. kitaman27
30. d3_crescentia
Take this list and analyze the person that is immediately below you. Since I am at the bottom of the list I'll wrap things around and do deconduo. Use DECISIVE language in your posts; either say YES this person is scum and here's why or NO this person is not. Then the person who is TWO above you should analyze your analysis. This should get things rolling.
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On December 17 2010 11:21 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 11:10 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not going to lie, this is starting to get real hard to follow with these huge walls of text. For example, quoting 4 separate blocks of text and replying "Meh." "Okay." "Don't care." and "But true." really takes away from your argument. Highlighting your main ideas, rather than responding to every single comment is definitely appreciated to keep the spam count low.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that we really should push for a double lynch today. I haven't seen a valid argument why this isn't a good idea.
Kavdragon, deconduo, ShoCkeyy all voted without requesting a double lynch and should be pressured to do so.
If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day.
Town KP is Always better than mafia KP. A double lynch has twice the likelyhood of netting a mafia. In addition it basically denies the mafia a night. That's four lives saved.
I think you and Shockeyy are good lynch targets tomorrow if neither of you are lynched today. Especially if you're going against a double lynch.
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On December 17 2010 12:00 d3_crescentia wrote:
Take this list and analyze the person that is immediately below you. Since I am at the bottom of the list I'll wrap things around and do deconduo. Use DECISIVE language in your posts; either say YES this person is scum and here's why or NO this person is not. Then the person who is TWO above you should analyze your analysis. This should get things rolling.
This is an incredible waste of time. What we need to do is focus on one or two people.
This is a great way for mafia to lurk, post an 'analysis', say the person is town, and then move away. Although interesting, we need to work on having a well thought out lynch. Unlike yesterday.
What everyone needs to do is give their opinion of Shockeyy. D3, I noticed that you were willing to lynch Shockeyy. Why not now?
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On December 17 2010 12:00 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 11:21 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 11:10 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not going to lie, this is starting to get real hard to follow with these huge walls of text. For example, quoting 4 separate blocks of text and replying "Meh." "Okay." "Don't care." and "But true." really takes away from your argument. Highlighting your main ideas, rather than responding to every single comment is definitely appreciated to keep the spam count low.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that we really should push for a double lynch today. I haven't seen a valid argument why this isn't a good idea.
Kavdragon, deconduo, ShoCkeyy all voted without requesting a double lynch and should be pressured to do so.
If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day. Town KP is Always better than mafia KP. A double lynch has twice the likelyhood of netting a mafia. In addition it basically denies the mafia a night. That's four lives saved. I think you and Shockeyy are good lynch targets tomorrow if neither of you are lynched today. Especially if you're going against a double lynch.
I agree that Town KP > Mafia KP. It only has twice the likelihood if we pick at random. I don't have any confidence in this town's ability to find scum, given our overall track record and participation thus far. I don't understand what you mean by "it basically denies the mafia a night."
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On December 17 2010 12:03 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 12:00 d3_crescentia wrote:
Take this list and analyze the person that is immediately below you. Since I am at the bottom of the list I'll wrap things around and do deconduo. Use DECISIVE language in your posts; either say YES this person is scum and here's why or NO this person is not. Then the person who is TWO above you should analyze your analysis. This should get things rolling. This is an incredible waste of time. What we need to do is focus on one or two people. This is a great way for mafia to lurk, post an 'analysis', say the person is town, and then move away. Although interesting, we need to work on having a well thought out lynch. Unlike yesterday. What everyone needs to do is give their opinion of Shockeyy. D3, I noticed that you were willing to lynch Shockeyy. Why not now?
Fine, stash it for later. I'm trying to throw out suggestions for people to find ways to participate.
I am interested in voting Shockeyy. I need a little more time to sort out my thoughts on DCLXVI, though, considering that I didn't read his reply as carefully as I should have and only briefly glanced at his analysis on Insanious.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 17 2010 12:07 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 12:00 LSB wrote:On December 17 2010 11:21 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 11:10 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not going to lie, this is starting to get real hard to follow with these huge walls of text. For example, quoting 4 separate blocks of text and replying "Meh." "Okay." "Don't care." and "But true." really takes away from your argument. Highlighting your main ideas, rather than responding to every single comment is definitely appreciated to keep the spam count low.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that we really should push for a double lynch today. I haven't seen a valid argument why this isn't a good idea.
Kavdragon, deconduo, ShoCkeyy all voted without requesting a double lynch and should be pressured to do so.
If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day. Town KP is Always better than mafia KP. A double lynch has twice the likelyhood of netting a mafia. In addition it basically denies the mafia a night. That's four lives saved. I think you and Shockeyy are good lynch targets tomorrow if neither of you are lynched today. Especially if you're going against a double lynch. I agree that Town KP > Mafia KP. It only has twice the likelihood if we pick at random. I don't have any confidence in this town's ability to find scum, given our overall track record and participation thus far. I don't understand what you mean by "it basically denies the mafia a night."
If you don't have confidence in the ability to find scum, then double lynch is the way to go. By relying on consecutive single lynches, it basically forces town to guess correctly while their numbers get whittled away during the night. With the double lynch, it doubles our kp allowing us to take out two suspicious targets. Identifying reds can snowball, so its important we take them out when we have the opportunity to.
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On December 17 2010 12:07 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 12:00 LSB wrote:On December 17 2010 11:21 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 11:10 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not going to lie, this is starting to get real hard to follow with these huge walls of text. For example, quoting 4 separate blocks of text and replying "Meh." "Okay." "Don't care." and "But true." really takes away from your argument. Highlighting your main ideas, rather than responding to every single comment is definitely appreciated to keep the spam count low.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that we really should push for a double lynch today. I haven't seen a valid argument why this isn't a good idea.
Kavdragon, deconduo, ShoCkeyy all voted without requesting a double lynch and should be pressured to do so.
If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day. Town KP is Always better than mafia KP. A double lynch has twice the likelyhood of netting a mafia. In addition it basically denies the mafia a night. That's four lives saved. I think you and Shockeyy are good lynch targets tomorrow if neither of you are lynched today. Especially if you're going against a double lynch. I agree that Town KP > Mafia KP. It only has twice the likelihood if we pick at random. I don't have any confidence in this town's ability to find scum, given our overall track record and participation thus far. I don't understand what you mean by "it basically denies the mafia a night."
Right now, for every lynch, we have to sacrifice four townies at night.
Would you rather trust the mafia to kill the own, or the town to randomly guess correctly?
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On December 17 2010 12:12 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 12:07 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 12:00 LSB wrote:On December 17 2010 11:21 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 11:10 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not going to lie, this is starting to get real hard to follow with these huge walls of text. For example, quoting 4 separate blocks of text and replying "Meh." "Okay." "Don't care." and "But true." really takes away from your argument. Highlighting your main ideas, rather than responding to every single comment is definitely appreciated to keep the spam count low.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that we really should push for a double lynch today. I haven't seen a valid argument why this isn't a good idea.
Kavdragon, deconduo, ShoCkeyy all voted without requesting a double lynch and should be pressured to do so.
If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day. Town KP is Always better than mafia KP. A double lynch has twice the likelyhood of netting a mafia. In addition it basically denies the mafia a night. That's four lives saved. I think you and Shockeyy are good lynch targets tomorrow if neither of you are lynched today. Especially if you're going against a double lynch. I agree that Town KP > Mafia KP. It only has twice the likelihood if we pick at random. I don't have any confidence in this town's ability to find scum, given our overall track record and participation thus far. I don't understand what you mean by "it basically denies the mafia a night." If you don't have confidence in the ability to find scum, then double lynch is the way to go. By relying on consecutive single lynches, it basically forces town to guess correctly while their numbers get whittled away during the night. With the double lynch, it doubles our kp allowing us to take out two suspicious targets. Identifying reds can snowball, so its important we take them out when we have the opportunity to.
I didn't think of it that way. I still don't like the idea as I've played in towns that have wasted their double-lynches consecutively and I'd rather not see a repeat of that. The other thing is, if everyone participates more actively than they have it becomes easier in the endgame to double-lynch. Let me reconsider.
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On December 17 2010 12:17 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 12:07 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 12:00 LSB wrote:On December 17 2010 11:21 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 11:10 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not going to lie, this is starting to get real hard to follow with these huge walls of text. For example, quoting 4 separate blocks of text and replying "Meh." "Okay." "Don't care." and "But true." really takes away from your argument. Highlighting your main ideas, rather than responding to every single comment is definitely appreciated to keep the spam count low.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that we really should push for a double lynch today. I haven't seen a valid argument why this isn't a good idea.
Kavdragon, deconduo, ShoCkeyy all voted without requesting a double lynch and should be pressured to do so.
If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day. Town KP is Always better than mafia KP. A double lynch has twice the likelyhood of netting a mafia. In addition it basically denies the mafia a night. That's four lives saved. I think you and Shockeyy are good lynch targets tomorrow if neither of you are lynched today. Especially if you're going against a double lynch. I agree that Town KP > Mafia KP. It only has twice the likelihood if we pick at random. I don't have any confidence in this town's ability to find scum, given our overall track record and participation thus far. I don't understand what you mean by "it basically denies the mafia a night." Right now, for every lynch, we have to sacrifice four townies at night. Would you rather trust the mafia to kill the own, or the town to randomly guess correctly?
I trust mafia to kill people that are trying to be active in helping the town. Would you have the town go to RNG now? If everyone is more active and more aggressive in their play, then there would be more information available for analysis and (I think) a better chance at catching scum. Maybe picking 2-3 people for everyone to analyze is better; maybe not. Maybe I'm just retardedly wrong.
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On December 17 2010 12:22 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 12:17 LSB wrote:On December 17 2010 12:07 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 12:00 LSB wrote:On December 17 2010 11:21 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 11:10 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not going to lie, this is starting to get real hard to follow with these huge walls of text. For example, quoting 4 separate blocks of text and replying "Meh." "Okay." "Don't care." and "But true." really takes away from your argument. Highlighting your main ideas, rather than responding to every single comment is definitely appreciated to keep the spam count low.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that we really should push for a double lynch today. I haven't seen a valid argument why this isn't a good idea.
Kavdragon, deconduo, ShoCkeyy all voted without requesting a double lynch and should be pressured to do so.
If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day. Town KP is Always better than mafia KP. A double lynch has twice the likelyhood of netting a mafia. In addition it basically denies the mafia a night. That's four lives saved. I think you and Shockeyy are good lynch targets tomorrow if neither of you are lynched today. Especially if you're going against a double lynch. I agree that Town KP > Mafia KP. It only has twice the likelihood if we pick at random. I don't have any confidence in this town's ability to find scum, given our overall track record and participation thus far. I don't understand what you mean by "it basically denies the mafia a night." Right now, for every lynch, we have to sacrifice four townies at night. Would you rather trust the mafia to kill the own, or the town to randomly guess correctly? I trust mafia to kill people that are trying to be active in helping the town. Would you have the town go to RNG now? If everyone is more active and more aggressive in their play, then there would be more information available for analysis and (I think) a better chance at catching scum. Maybe picking 2-3 people for everyone to analyze is better; maybe not. Maybe I'm just retardedly wrong.
So killing people who actively try to help out the town is a good thing and we should have more of it?
D3 is SK
Remember. There is NO REASON to lynch D3. The mafia will take care of it by themselves
If the Mafia Uses a roleblock and a kill on the serial killer. Will the serial killer die?
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nvm about that. Apparently mewtoo can't be killed by the mafia
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On December 17 2010 12:28 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 12:22 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 12:17 LSB wrote:On December 17 2010 12:07 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 12:00 LSB wrote:On December 17 2010 11:21 d3_crescentia wrote:On December 17 2010 11:10 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not going to lie, this is starting to get real hard to follow with these huge walls of text. For example, quoting 4 separate blocks of text and replying "Meh." "Okay." "Don't care." and "But true." really takes away from your argument. Highlighting your main ideas, rather than responding to every single comment is definitely appreciated to keep the spam count low.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that we really should push for a double lynch today. I haven't seen a valid argument why this isn't a good idea.
Kavdragon, deconduo, ShoCkeyy all voted without requesting a double lynch and should be pressured to do so.
If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day. Town KP is Always better than mafia KP. A double lynch has twice the likelyhood of netting a mafia. In addition it basically denies the mafia a night. That's four lives saved. I think you and Shockeyy are good lynch targets tomorrow if neither of you are lynched today. Especially if you're going against a double lynch. I agree that Town KP > Mafia KP. It only has twice the likelihood if we pick at random. I don't have any confidence in this town's ability to find scum, given our overall track record and participation thus far. I don't understand what you mean by "it basically denies the mafia a night." Right now, for every lynch, we have to sacrifice four townies at night. Would you rather trust the mafia to kill the own, or the town to randomly guess correctly? I trust mafia to kill people that are trying to be active in helping the town. Would you have the town go to RNG now? If everyone is more active and more aggressive in their play, then there would be more information available for analysis and (I think) a better chance at catching scum. Maybe picking 2-3 people for everyone to analyze is better; maybe not. Maybe I'm just retardedly wrong. So killing people who actively try to help out the town is a good thing and we should have more of it? D3 is SKRemember. There is NO REASON to lynch D3. The mafia will take care of it by themselves If the Mafia Uses a roleblock and a kill on the serial killer. Will the serial killer die?
WTF? How the hell did you get to that conclusion? I said that I expect mafia to target people that are actively trying to help out the town. If more people are active then it makes it harder for them to pick targets, and we have more collective analysis to go by.
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Just pick up a piece of paper and do the math.
1 lynch + 4 kp + 1 lynch + 4 kp = 2 lynches +8 kp
2 lynches + 4 kp = 2 lynches + 4 kp.
You're reasoning is that during night the mafia will shoot for the active players... o.o
Just claim SK and be done with it.
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Im going to vote for double lynch when we know for sure who's scum and who's not. I don't want to go off and double lynch two townies or two blues and then the town is fucked, because people like lsb doesn't know how to post anything that is worth meaning. I wish i could post more, but as i am out of town again and posting from my phone till tomorrow night when im able to get in front of a computer. Like i said, look at lsb, he's been "trying " to control the town and only has really put input only to me and says to lynch me. The reason why he keeps trying to lynch me is cause i hit a soft spot
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On December 17 2010 12:50 LSB wrote:
Just pick up a piece of paper and do the math.
1 lynch + 4 kp + 1 lynch + 4 kp = 2 lynches +8 kp
2 lynches + 4 kp = 2 lynches + 4 kp.
You're reasoning is that during night the mafia will shoot for the active players... o.o
Just claim SK and be done with it.
That's what mafia has been doing thus far, targeting active players...?
That's only during one day/night cycle, though.
1 lynch + 4kp + 1 lynch + 4kp = 2 lynches + 8kp.
2 lynches + 4 kp + 1 lynch + 4kp = 3 lynches + 8kp.
You're hedging a lot of your bets on hitting those lynches, and in my experience a town this apathetic won't be able to hit any of them.
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We HAVE to double lynch now, and if we miss mafia we HAVE to double lynch again.
15 town
6 mafia
1 mewtwo
Double lynch kills 2 town, mafia kills 3 town, mewtwo kills 1 town = -6 town its
9 town
6 mafia
1 mewtwo
In next round, at least 3 town die... need to be able to double lynch in order to catch mafia and not instantly lose.
Doubly lynch NEEDS to happen now, and we NEED to hit mafia, or... vote double lynch again
2 lynch + 4 KP + 2 lynch + 4KP = what we will most likely have to do at this point... the only point we would not need to do that would be
2 lynch kills 1-2 mafia, and mewtwo kills 1 mafia... that this point its 2 mafia KP, which gives us another 3 days to lynch mafia.
15-4 = 11/3 = 3.75 = 4, means town gets from 3 - 4 extra days to kill mafia. If we hit towns with our double lynch we get 1 more day to kill mafia.
We need to kill 2 mafia. Killing mewtwo won't help us either. Mewtwo can ONLY win if all mafia, and all town are dead. Meaning Mewtwo can only win under these conditions:
mewtwo + 2 town
Mewtwo + 1 town + 1 mafia at end.
If there are:
Mewtwo + 2 mafia = mewtwo is lynched
This means, mewtwo needs to kill mafia as much as we do... maybe even more so as if we don't hit mafia during the double lynch then we will need to double lynch again giving a higher chance to kill mafia...
- - - -
TL;DR we have 1 more night to find mafia, or we need to double lynch twice in a row
Mewtwo needs to kill mafia or will lose the game in 2 days as well.
Basically... vote double lynch if you want to win, the only people that don't want it are mafia... or town loses the game.
Doesn't even matter if we hit town because we have the same amount of nights to win with double or normal lynch = 2, and double lynch = higher chance of killing mafia.
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Oh. Shoot. Are we really at 15/6/1? I had 16/6/1 for my numbers, which should have given us another day. Yeah in which case voting double is probably a good idea. SORRY. =/
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So I heard you like double lynching.
Yeh it's going to happen. Just figure out who is suss again?
I'm a bit uneasy about DC, sure he's been helpful but he had 2 accusers that got eliminated. Gabe also has had his accusers lynched (apart from me) and escaped the noose twice.
There was LSB who said mafia may set GAbe up. But really not likely. Maybe they can make it more obvious that they're trying hard to set up gabe if they kill me night 2. Then maybe gabe is townie after all via LSB's logic. Do you really buy that?
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EPT
