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On October 31 2010 11:11 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2010 11:07 infinitestory wrote:On October 31 2010 10:54 Pandain wrote:
Alright, here's my thoughts for the night thus far.
Bum should visit Dr. H, Dr. H can therefore confirm if he's town. I doubt mafia would have a mason, as the only real benefit of that is you can fake a townie(aka, mafia can already pm). DT's should check me and Fishball, as we are both unconfirmed. Doctor H, if I understand you correctly, you are able to confirm yourself to another player. Once you do so, they should say so in thread the next day.
How does this work? Sorry didn't come out right. I mean doctor H can then confirm HIMSELF to bum. Show nested quote +On October 31 2010 11:00 kitaman27 wrote:On October 31 2010 10:54 Pandain wrote:
Medics should protect Dr. H, me, Fishball, and lastly Bum, since he's probably the least important. I'm unsure how to get them to all protect an individual person since we don't know who they are, but that's just my suggestions for them.
PD's should be on Dr. H. We want him to have immunity asap. I think actually not on Bum, since perhaps he should confirm himself to bum, therefore finding out if bum has murrayitis. If he does, then cure both of them the next night, limiting murrayitis.
Thoughts? Err no and no. DrH doesn't need a medic because he has bodyguards and he didn't need a Plague Doctor because he is immune. With only one body guard, mafia can double hit him, no? And is he already immune? I thought he can only tell if another person has murrayitis.
Whee, double-post.
I thought a mayor is completely immune as long as a bodyguard is about. The bodyguard doesn't take a bullet for the mayor, but stops it from happening in the first place.
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Fishball is in a "circle" of roles that were granted PM capabilities. I'm not really sure how you could've missed that seeing as his platform and almost all debate of him as mayor centered around that.
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Well, if he does die tonight, we'll get a role description, which may shed more light on what he is talking about.
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I'm posting this now to prove I'm not full of shit if I survive the night and get an opportunity to explain myself come daytime:
BrownBear will die tonight.
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At the beginning of the day, I am informed of a person who will die during the night. This is why I believe the "+1" of the mafia's 2+1 KP is not murrayitis related. If I had to guess, I would say that it's a randomly chosen townie, as I can't see the mafia having a predetermined hit at the beginning of the day, especially on the first day.
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On November 01 2010 08:09 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 08:05 Node wrote:
At the beginning of the day, I am informed of a person who will die during the night. This is why I believe the "+1" of the mafia's 2+1 KP is not murrayitis related. If I had to guess, I would say that it's a randomly chosen townie, as I can't see the mafia having a predetermined hit at the beginning of the day, especially on the first day. and so why the frick didn't you say so so we can protect him.
1) I have to prove that I'm not bullshitting you. The original target was quickstriker, who was inactive at the time. It wouldn't be a poor sacrifice.
2) It's a double-edged sword. If there's a suicide-bomber in the game and a target is publically revealed it gives an excellent opportunity to take out a medic. That's why I'd like to be part of a PM circle -- if there's a way to get this information risk-free to a medic that's what I want to do.
If I had come out with this information earlier I would just be accused of being a mafia attempting to snipe a medic early in the game.
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I can tell you all who is going to die tonight, but I just posted my misgivings on that subject. Thoughts?
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I would say that the BrownBear "clue" means that he didn't use his ability yesterday. He was probably okay with how the elections were going, and he couldn't make much of a difference anyways. Rigging elections is bad, mmmmkay?
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I'm mostly worried about the presence of a suicide bomber in the game, but I suppose I can't do much else seeing as I'm not in a PM circle.
DCLXVI is going to die tonight.
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I have no idea, but neither quickstriker nor brownbear were mafia, so evidence points to no.
And there's always the possibility of me being insane and being wrong sometimes, but there's not much we can do about that.
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EBWOP:
On November 01 2010 08:30 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Is it at all possible that the person who dies at night is mafia? If DC is a confirmed townie now, this makes Aeres look a little bit suspicious IMO.
I have no idea, but neither quickstriker nor brownbear were mafia, so evidence points to no.
And there's always the possibility of me being insane and being wrong sometimes, but there's not much we can do about that.
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On November 01 2010 08:34 Misder wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 08:29 Node wrote:
I'm mostly worried about the presence of a suicide bomber in the game, but I suppose I can't do much else seeing as I'm not in a PM circle.
DCLXVI is going to die tonight. Is this for certain? Do you know how hes going to die? Is it possible for a doctor or a medic or whatever role its called in this game to protect him so he doesn't die?
All I am given is the name of someone who is going to die. I would assume that it's possible for a medic to protect them, as they don't seem to die in any special fashion. I have nothing concrete, though.
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On November 01 2010 08:51 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Node's role is very easy to fake btw. If he is mafia he needs only to claim "this person will die and I know it" and then kill them that night.
If he is actually the suicide bomber this would be a very smart play.
All I can really say is that I'm telling the truth. :/ That's part of the reason I waited until the last moment to say that I knew BrownBear was going to die -- it doesn't help the mafia. The other part of the reason is it's obviously bad for the mafia to have someone reveal a target every day, and doing so would put my own life in danger. That's why I briefly considered a mayoral run. If you look at my past posts regarding the role it's something I've been setting up for awhile.
On November 01 2010 08:54 Misder wrote:
@Node
Why were you informed that BB would die so late last cycle, but now you are informed that DXC is going to die so early in this cycle?
I was informed at the beginning of Day 1 that quickstriker was going to die, but he went and got modkilled, at which point I got a PM saying that BrownBear was next in line. I explained why I waited to reveal my knowledge of BrownBear's death earlier in this post.
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On November 01 2010 08:57 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
since you've already claimed node why not just tell us the name of it?
The role is called "Oracle".
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On November 01 2010 13:15 youngminii wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 13:06 DCLXVI wrote:
So the potential doctor is risking saving a "confirmed" blue vs losing himself as well. Unless someone provides me with an good enough reason I will not fully roleclaim You're going to die anyway. Unless the mafia are allowed to move the hit?
I have no information to indicate the answer one way or the other, but I wouldn't be surprised if mine isn't the only role that indicates with the "mystery kill" in some way.
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EBWOP: Interacts, not indicates.
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On November 01 2010 13:22 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2010 13:19 DCLXVI wrote:
Wait so you guys think a doctor cannot save me from this supposed hit? why? I really don't want to die just yet I believe you probably can be saved. But it could be dangerous if we try, because it could be a suicide bomber set up or something of the sort.
My prophecies say "name will die" (italics are mine). Personally, I think it would be incredibly strange if the person couldn't be saved no matter what, but it is notably different phrasing from "name will be hit".
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Some quick clarifications before I get on to the meat of this post:
Yes, I'm told who will be killed at the beginning of the day. When QuickStriker was modkilled, I PMd the mods and asked if I would be given a new prophecy, and was told BrownBear.
I think the reason a new person (BrownBear, in this case) was chosen was because the kill counts as part of the mafia's night KP. Thus, it wouldn't really be "fair" to deny them a kill when they've been told they will have three that night.
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On November 02 2010 12:47 jcarlsoniv wrote:
I have known this for quite a while, but it just got me thinking:
What do you think the odds are that the mods would change the "oracled" target if that target was modkilled? Idk, it just seems to me that if the player was modkilled, well that's tough shit for the oracle, his power is wasted for the day. Thinking about this, Node actually does seem pretty fishy.
Eye of Suspicion
While I can see why you think it's fishy, it doesn't make sense in the context of how things went down. I'd have no reason whatsoever to say that QuickStriker was the first target I was informed of -- all that really matters is that BrownBear died. And keep in mind I didn't claim that until the last moment last night, so what does it matter if, at some point, QuickStriker was a target unless we're looking for connections?
Frankly, I'm surprised more people haven't brought up suspicions about myself and my role, and it makes me hugely suspect of the "side A vs. side B" that's been going on today. Not that I want to be the center of attention, but yeesh. It worries me that the mafia might consider my role more beneficial than the town does, and thus wouldn't want to see me lynched. Thoughts on why that might be the case below.
I don't think it's a list of people with a common link, but instead just a RNG'd townie at the beginning of the day. I've got no proof, but I can't see there being any other way to determine who is going to die at the very beginning of the game, unless it's role related, and I haven't seen any links in the role descriptions of the dead.
Keep in mind a kill a day is a pretty big deal. I've said this before, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if my role isn't the only one that can interact with the "mystery" kill in some way. Possibilities for interaction include switching it, blocking it, even canceling it. Also, consider the possibilities for the more "standard" roles in taking advantage of mine. A bus driver, for instance, could absolutely wreak havoc with this knowledge. The mafia could put themselves at risk as much as the town by putting this information out there.
Another possibility I've thought of concerning the kill is that the mafia themselves don't know who it is that's going to die. That would be just, well, you know. Still, the potential of this role discreetly giving information to a ghost to deny the mafia a kill every night would be extraordinarily powerful and scary to the mafia.
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I'm going to vote Aeres because 1) I don't believe there is a better candidate at the moment and 2) if he doesn't die now, we're going to be having this argument for the rest of the damn game. Not that I think arguments are bad, but we will never get off the subject of Aeres and start looking at other people if we don't make up our minds completely one way or the other right now.
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I'm glad to see those I predict to die can be protected.
NB is slated to die tonight.
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EPT
