EPTHaunted Mafia
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
If he dies and it is decoded: we decided if we should trust it or not based on the decoder and his role (which we get WHEN he dies) If he dies and it isn't decoded: we forget about it. If he doesn't die: we don't care and forget about it. Sounds good? | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
On October 17 2010 08:47 Glasse wrote: the thing is its probably an alpha encrypted code (unless hes dumb and actually made a chart with each letter = what) so if the guy that says it doesnt post the key, just don't believe it. Yeah, basically ignore it. I mean, when he posted it, I personally thought it was just a move to confuse the town. =/ | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
Also, will post analyses later. Give me a few hours, lol. | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
Being new to the game, I spent like, 5 fucking hours reading through all the damn posts and spam. One thing that struck me was the bandwagon that started on Veldril despite the clue for Masq seeming SO obvious. Therefore, I decided to see who voted for Veldril. Then, being lucky, I had already read through some night posts to see who had died before. Finally, as I was reading, I found jaminz’s post which was really helpful in my eyes. I used it in combination with the day1 votes (because day2 bandwagon was justified after Masq flipped red) to see who could’ve possibly tried to save their buddy Masq. Now, I’m in the process of doing some analyses to see who looks red and who looks green. Here they are. + Show Spoiler [Thegilaboy] + Wow just woke up for work and I see I have some reading to do! I've got a few pages in from where I left off last night and it seems a few suspects have begun to emerge. As with all past mafia games we can't rely so strongly on clues, especially on the first night, but in time they will be helpful indicators of who is scum. I actually like BM's approach the best with post analysis, as that is where you get a real inside look at the person and see their scummy tendencies. The voting list is somewhere to keep a close eye on as well. If some people switch their votes a lot it may indicate they are just trying to hop on the latest bandwagon for safety. The Masq clue seems pretty convincing right now, but I'm going to hold my vote a little longer after I get to finishing the last couple pages and letting the discussion go a little further. The first part is perfectly acceptable. I agree with it. Post analysis is indeed good. I also agree that people who switch votes a lot are probably bandwagon and so forth. First interesting note: Says Masq clue is pretty convincing, but holding off the vote. Either: He knows he will have time later so he can vote later (probable) Or: He knows Masq is his buddy vampire and thus is waiting for someone else to bandwagon onto to vote. Guess who he chooses? The green Veldril Not exactly. Zombies make up the bulk of the population, so they have the strongest voting power during the day. If you can get the Zombies rallied behind a cause, especially with the aid of some blues, town will get to vote whoever they want so long as they maintain their numbers. Also since there are so many townies, we have the greatest number of doing post analyses and clue analyses for our cause. Note the use of third person UNTIL the last line. Zombies make up… Zombies rally… town will get… Not we. Aside from that, pretty obvious post, but good for he new comers. I might be picking at straws. + Show Spoiler + Yeah I know what MH and D1 are lol, I've played some games of mafia before. I agree though, the clues on the first day especially can be misleading or simply too obvious. It's the posting actions of individuals that we should be most concerned about, coupled with voting tendencies and wild changes in who an individual votes for in a given day. We also have the difficult task of managing where our blue roles should be focused on tonight. With so many people there are a lot of options, and a lot of ways it could go wrong. This seems to me to be more important than first day lynch vote. Sure it's possible we'll hit scum, and we may even get wind of a trail that leads to a lot of it, but as in most games unfortunately a vanilla townie gets the rope. The blue roles need to get planning and so that they can establish their circle and hopefully find scum in a more convincing manner than clue analysis. I don't know if you're really this unaware of the rules or way the game works...Blues aren't going to out themselves so early in the game Good posts to help the beginners. + Show Spoiler + I'm trying to give the basics since he seems to be so unaware of how this game is played that I thought I'd lay down the foundation for him. I'm aware of how mafia games are played, I've played in plenty of them on and off this forum He has that many posts, but if you check his history this is his first mafia game, on TL at least. So yeah, even with 1900+ posts its possible someone has never played the game before Defending him? I'm just trying to explain to you why I was answering his questions since you questioned it. His argument with NB. Hmm, I’d think they don’t contact each other much because if this were a planned conversation, they wouldn’t be posting it so quickly as they would try to edit it a lot and make it “perfect.” It also started from Coagulation and Seraph, so I really doubt Gila has connections to mafia right now. You're a dick Man there is a lot of spam on this board, some people really need to tone down on the useless one-liners with no substance. Anyway, I tried catching up this morning, after wading through a lot of shit: Orglove is either a very enthusiastic townie, or he is a red trying to hold the reigns over a lot of newbies who will come to rely on his spreadsheet and and what I'll call "assessments." Spreadsheets are very useful, but you posting yours in every post is actually revealing information you should keep to yourself at times. But hey, you could be a very active townie and I might be off on my suspicions, I just think you might want to tone down on the spreadsheet since it has been found to be incorrect three times now I believe. I know we really want to get our first day's lynch in order since the hours are winding down, but that also means the hours are winding down on any coordination of our blue roles. I believe Pandain is attempting to coordinate MH placements, which can be a good thing for town even if he is red I suppose since he will be gunning for the other red team. Aztorisk may have jumped the gun on his role claim so early on, but that was partially due to the fact that the rules/descriptions weren't as clear as there are now. I know BM has been throwing around some ideas for Ghost placement in terms of the Masq/Veldril thing, anyone else have a thought on that? Anyway, back to rereading the last few pages again So, he’s thinking about voting between Masq and Veldril. Guess who he votes, DESPITE his earlier statement of “the masq clue being convincing?” He votes Veldril. Why? Probably because when he voted, it was 18-17. That’s right, he had a chance at saving his buddy Masq for Veldril. He joined the bandwagon of Veldril to try and save Masq. Note, he doesn’t even post any reasoning on WHY he voted Veldril in the first place instead of Masq. All pre-voting-Veldril Righteous. If there really was a connection between Masq and Veldril, we should expect to see mafia gunning for him tonight in hopes of snagging another vamp kill. Hopefully if any of the replacements for modkills are blues that they have enough time to catch up and get their role actions in check, we can't afford to lose those opportunities after getting such a lucky lynch at the beginning of the game. Anyway, I must be off for now, catch up on some z's, you all have a good one Reasonable post. That cat connection to Kpyolysis32 is about as obvious as Masq's pear connection, wow lol. Time to look through profiles and find something to do with a wretched smell Oh look, he says another person’s hint is as obvious as Masq’s. Well, this clearly means that he thinks Masq’s connection was OBVIOUS, and that kpyolysis32’s connection is obvious too! Why did he not vote for Masq then? This is true. As much as I'd like to think we've got another easy lynch like Masq because of an obvious clue, we can't read solely on clues and make quick accusations. Time for sleep, but I'll sleep more soundly knowing the streets run with red blood now He says Masq was an easy lynch, an obvious clue, and once again, he never voted for Masq on the first day. His day 1 vote goes COMPLETELY against what he’s saying. Talk one way->Vote another to try to save scummy friend, seems like a vampire(since he tried to save Masq and fought with NB) to me. I think for now I'm going to put my vote down for Veldril while I head out to work. His connection to Masq seems like a good one, and if he really is a vamp then killing him would take one KP from them and that seems huge in this game since there are so many potential KPs as is. We have some good connections for day 2, but I usually prefer voting based on activity and posting rather than clues alone since there is always the potential of red herrings. Okay, this is reasonable, but once again, he just changed his mind onto the bandwagon for Veldril. He, once again, left the obvious clue of kpylo for Veldril. A jungle cat could probably crush a skull...perhaps even a tiger? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=YummyBlaBla Hmmm, throwing accusations around, interesting. *note, his analysis of Node was too long for me to quote onto a word doc, so I just read it, thought about it, and found it pretty safe. Nothing really damning in there.* After the analysis, gila’s posting has been pretty consistent. I mean, there wasn’t anything disagreeable about them. They didn’t seem particularly scummy, but they weren’t helpful either. It’s just clutter. That's a really solid find SiNiquity. It fits very well: lightning strike, a large man, silver, and a hammer. Seems pretty damning so far. I'm prone to not trusting Pandain since he did say he had DTs claimed to him and that jodo was checked as vamp. Since jodo's unfortunate modkilling revealed him to be another one of our GRs, that sort of takes the wind out of Pandain's sails. I'm not sure why a townie would just lie like that though, and it makes me believe that he was either tricked or simply lied to by someone he trusted As of right now I like Artanis as a possible lynch, but we do have plenty of time to go over clues and posts again to make sure. I recommend people continue with the analysis methodology used earlier where you analyze the posts and profiles of the person above you on the sign up list. It's a great way to find inconsistencies and clue connections that may have been missed. All in all right now I think Artanis is one of our most solid choices for lynching. ARG, he accuses again! Let’s look at the list of his accusations(well, people who he believes to be red): Masq Veldril Kpylo Yummy Artosis. Who has he voted for? Only veldril. Has he ever voted with his clues despite him saying they were obvious? No. Instead, he’s been slinging shit around, trying to cast suspicion everywhere. I say that’s scummy behavior. Mixed with the fact that, ON DAY ONE, he voted Veldril instead of Masq? Pretty damning. Also, note this intesting fact. Here are people who voted for Veldril first day and were active in post count by the time of jaminz’s post count: NB with 30 Youngman with 40 BM/Glurio with 56 Annul with 18 And Gila with 20. I’d say we all think BM/Glurio seems pretty scummy, Gila does too. There’s also been 2 other reds in the group. Coincidence? I think not. + Show Spoiler [annul] + also, i do not agree with jcarlsoniv. if you have something to say, say it. more information is not a bad thing, and telling people to stop talking is a good way to give cover for mafia. perhaps playing on the forums is fundamentally different from playing over IRC, but you can often find gems of information from the shortest of seemingly irrelevant sentences. I agree with this. In fact, I quite like this post. :D by 12:00 PM do you mean noon or do you mean midnight wednesday morning (12:01 AM, simplified)? Clearing shit up, good townie post. + Show Spoiler + i think the trick is to compare the differences between the first day 1 post and the second day 1 post. whatever is changed has to be the clue. i really do not know what is different about qatol's death though, it seems 100% unchanged. yes, precisely. so what i am saying is, if there are things that are the same in the two day 1 posts, they must not be where the clues were hidden. the exact same script minus like one sentence is used in some of these kills. that must be the clue. yes, precisely. so what i am saying is, if there are things that are the same in the two day 1 posts, they must not be where the clues were hidden. the exact same script minus like one sentence is used in some of these kills. that must be the the only death that is identical is qatal's -- every other death has been changed. so MAYBE the RNG gave the same role to the same person that was to kill qatal; it is possible. then he wouldn't have to change anything. but the person who has the role to kill meeple, for example, is new, so the clue now changes. previously, it was not someone for whom "the wind spoke" or whatever. All these seem fairly pro-town. It tells people how to analyze the clues. However, he never analyzes any himself... a bit fishy. of all the info we have right now, masq's profile is probably the strongest indictment yet. i wonder if it is smarter for us to kill masq with our town vote or to let the mafia/vampires (whichever side masq isnt) take him out with one of their night kills. saves 1 kill from the town and it is not like the mafia/vampires won't kill him, since they need him dead to win too. Now this post seems a bit scummy since he's trying to save masq despite the obvious clue. Besides, it's much better for town to lynch a for sure red than for us to take a chance and lynch a blue/green. I disagree with the idea he poses here, and it might just be him trying to save his buddy. After all, he did vote for Veldril in the end, and this seems to be just trying to give himself an out. Note: Annul also voted with the bandwagon for Veldril. A slew of people voted for Veldril in quick succession. Annul was one of them I have voted Veldril. I think that if it is clearly obvious Masq is mafia or vampire (which it is, tbh), then the other team will have to waste 1 night kill on him, and that leaves more living townies. They may not pull the trigger on Veldril, though, and so we should [strike]nat-to-nat siege tank his gas[/strike] wtfpwn him as such. Well, at least he gives a reason. Unfortunately, the reason is pretty bad because killing Veldril would've given the town NO information compared to killing Masq. Veldril turning up green would've stopped us dead in our tracks, and vamps know that. pretty sure the brute bypasses the ghost and kills everybody in the room (including ghost and brute) anyway so if the brute comes for you at night you are going to die no matter what, unless you are the frankenstein though, i wonder if the boogeyman/invisible man also die to the brute? their role implies that they remain unseen/stealthed, and i doubt a bloodlusting vampire would detect a random guy in the closet etc More clarification. I like this post. :D He's giving us valuable info here. fyi, in that spreadsheet, you say i "defended lankill" no i didnt. i said that lankill could not have possibly supported anybody when he hasn't even made one post in this entire game. This makes me suspicious of orgo instead of annul. annul isn't particularly defensive either. =/ in fact, YOU made up the fact that lankill was for masq, which was a blatant lie. so i wonder if i am wrong in voting vendril, to be quite honest it is you i have caught in (now two) lies. Now this is interesting. This is a bit defensive, and you'd think he'd change his vote. But he doesn't. Hmmm, idk how to really think about this one, but I do believe if I had better deduction skills, this would be a very clarifying post. if more would join, i would be fine switching to orgo. i get bad feelings from that guy. i DO think vendril and masq are reds though (by way of night 0 clues), but i imagine that the mafia/vamps will use night kills on them anyway. let's get rid of orgo now. Uhhh, trying to start a bandwagon, going away from our high kill chance (which he agrees with), trying to shift blame onto another person, get another suspect? Not cool. Scummy as hell post. masq is scum veldril is scum the entire debate is whether it is smarter to vote veldril or masq tonight. who is more dangerous to keep alive. most who view it like this will say veldril. COMPLETELY off. It's more like both are unknown, but Masq has higher chance because the clue seems more conclusive. Also, if town had killed off Veldril, their lead would've ended right there. All the better for vamps. Scummy post. you STILL haven't changed that spreadsheet. wow. once again, i never "defended lankill" beyond saying to you that YOU fucked up in calling him out on things when he still hasn't made a single post in the game. if orgo is this loose with his spreadsheet after being called out on his inconsistencies like 12 hours ago (including this specific one), then i do not know how useful it is at all for anyone. Justified but defensive reaction in my eyes. wow. don't forget that if the vampires used the poisoner, it wouldn't show up today either. so it could have been a ghost or it could have been a frankenstein or it could have been a poison kill. not necessarily true it was 2 ghosts He's keeping his head about him, at least that's good. here is the thing i do not like all these people saying "we have problems if he is a vamp" or somehow implying its bad for him to go if he is a vamp the mafia already lost 1 person. this means that, in order for mafia to win AND town to not win, somehow, over the course of the entire game, mafia has to suffer no more than four further kills. the only possible way for mafia to win is if 11 vampires are dead. as soon as five mafia go away, then neither side can win (once vamps go down 5 too) without the town also winning, provided the town's numbers stay up. and remember if there are 61 players and 16 red die, then you have 6 living reds and the town would need 7 living greens/blues. 13 total players. we are nowhere near the point where we have 7 town players left. Okay, this post just makes me think he's probably not vamp. Hmm, vamps would be the ones arguing killing them off would be bad because mafia gains upper hand. i figured it out he says conf[i]rmed killers are: pandain i figure he fucked up in the code with "conformed" instead of confirmed, but this is what it says i wonder how he "conformed" pandain to be a killer as a JOL, or what "killer" even means - scum? grim reaper? i hear cryptograms are hard to decode, confirm/deny God damnit, this is wtf. he NEVER posted a code with this, and seems to just be bullshitting. It also doesn't seem to fit with the "decoder" people found later. Trying to confuse town? Trying to kill a harmless green? (pandain) player above me: glasse analysis: LOL FRENCH CANADIAN No analysis... wtf. i am voting lucktar for the very obvious, almost masq-like clue-to-profile similarity. i am not defending jodo, mind you, just that i think that obvious clues > suspicion at this point. Wtf? This goes against what he said earlier about analyzing posts! This also goes against his vote as he NEVER voted for Masq, despite him saying that it's very obvious now. Why? Also, why would he vote for someone of Masq's clue-like-similarity when he never voted for Masq in the first place? I don't get it. Other things that make him seem scummy: He and Brownbear have a little tussle that ends up as nothing. Helps sever their possible connection. Although, brownbear did give him a <3. Awww, cute. xD Overall: I think annul is very suspicious because of his current posts undermining the ideas behind his earlier posts. He was also one of the ones who bandwagonned onto Veldril instead of onto Masq. However, he could simply be a townie that forgot what he said earlier, or a townie that makes mistakes. it's perfectly plausible given his newbiness. I'd recommend keeping an eye on him, but nothing is damning yet. + Show Spoiler [MetalFace] + Now, onto Metalface. He's an interesting guy who only posted ONCE before voting Veldril. Why? Also, he didn't even GIVE an analysis for this. Hmmm, bandwagoning as Vampire? He's also been quite inactive... Hmm. Maybe this is a dumb question, but when/where/how do we vote who to lynch? Nothing conclusive. Just that he's a newbie. Heyo. Just to clear this up for you, I am in fact not a smurf. After starting to play SC2 a friend of mine suggested I check out TL because, as I'm sure you all know, this is the place to be for SC2 strats. I made an account so I could sign up for the NA TL Open, but unfortunately, couldn't make it. As for my low post count, I was never really one for posting a ton because A) I'm not all that good at SC2, and B) I'm firmly believe bad people posting just makes for bad forums. Realistically, why would I make a smurf account using a SC2 name that is legit? And so I had been happy in my lurking until I saw the Haunted Mafia signup on the left hand bar. I had played a simplified version of Mafia IRL but nothing like this before. Honestly, I have no way of proving this to you, but quite frankly, whether or not you believe me doesn't really matter. As for voting, it's the first night and as much as you guys want to get really deep into the clues, someone has to die. Once we lynch someone, we'll be a lot closer to finding out who is mafia/vampire. There's like 5-6 people right now that we could lynch and and one of them would give us a ton of information as to who's who, but for right now we're just working off of a handful of clue and a mountain of speculation. Hmmm, interesting. Very defensive post IMO because there's nothing wrong with a smurf. Although, being a new guy, he probably wouldn't know that. However, there are some interesting things to keep in mind here. He seems to be marginalizing the clue analysis. He seems to not care WHO we lynch. On the other hand, he is right that town was on a mountain of speculation. His response is pretty logical and townie seeming. Ok, so about the vendril thing. For the sake of theorizing lets say that... A) He is scum. If he is, all scum will know that he is at least not the same scum as them (ie: mafia know he's not mafia, etc.) I) The win condition for scum is to eliminate all of the opposite scum. It has nothing to do with townies. Therefore, a) It is possible the scum will try to kill Vendril tonight. Now, there are a few cases where the scum will NOT try to kill Vendril tonight... 1) The scum do not want to risk exposing or harming themselves in such an obvious kill and are willing to wait until later. 2) The scum are under the impression that the town will lynch Vendril Day 2. B) He is NOT scum. If he is not scum, all scum will know that Vendril is a townie. I) Quite frankly, if Vendril is townie, there aren't a ton of reasons to kill him off, as he hasn't been all that threatening thus far, just sort of posting a bit foolishly. II) There are some people who seem to want to off Vendril regardless. a) If he is not scum, all of the fingers that have been pointing at him can be pretty easily turned around. 1) This is another reason the scum may want to off Vendril tonight. Now both (A) and (B) assume that we know 100% what Vendril's allegiance is (scum/town). As convinced as some people are, I don't think anyone can say for sure that Vendril is one way or the other, but that is the game. The logical solution is to wait out the night and see who dies. If Vendril dies overnight, then none of this post really matters anyways, although we will know which side of scum he was and we'll have a clue pointing at the opposite. If he doesn't die tonight, then we weigh our options given the provided clues and anything else we learn overnight. None of this is meant to incriminate Vendril or vindicate him. Notice I haven't quoted anyone or linked any evidence. This is merely a flow of thoughts meant to help demonstrate the reasoning behind Vendril's death/survivial. It should be taken cautiously, and in the end, if you are convinced one way or the other, this post won't really help you anyways. This was just meant as a means of viewing the different meanings behind different happenings. Hmm, I like his latest post. It's pretty well thought out, and as he says, it's simply his thoughts. It's good information, and despite being new, he's acting pretty much pro-town. He defends that he's not smurfing a lot, but that's probably because he's new as well. After analyzing him, I find him seeming more green than red. I don't trust him because of how little he posts, but there's nothing that makes him seem either threatening or suspicious. | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
On October 18 2010 01:26 Artanis[Xp] wrote: The clue for 'me' has been in there since day 1, when I wasn't even in the game yet. Therefore it seems it has to lead to someone that wasn't a replacement I'd imagine. I also haven't been as active because I'm balancing out the insane mafia game with LSB that will start after this one which I am really psyched about. However, as a gesture to my fellow townies I'm willing to analyze anyone's posts within the next ~24ish hours. Yes, please analyze my most recent post with my analyses. I'd love to have some feedback. | ||
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United States3786 Posts
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On October 18 2010 05:44 annul wrote: yes he did - he posted a cryptogram and when solved, it came out to "conformed killers are: pandain" check the thread again, it is there No, in fact, he questioned you on your decryption. + Show Spoiler [aztrorisk's quote] + Lol, i would like to see your reasoning. I applied the code CubEdIn found later with spydr, and it doesn't work with the notes aztrorisk originally posted. It came out as giberish. =/ Furthermore, you never posted anything on how to decrypt it. I'd love to know how you got "confirmed killers are: Pandain" from e6oa6yh91 3ivv9yg 4y9: 74ol4io because if we apply the decoder used later (move 1 letter down on the keyboard) we get: dylzyhnoq ekvvohb rho: urllrkl Furthermore, I ask town to draw attention to the selective quoting. I, in fact, did include the decoder people found later, but I said it did not fit. + Show Spoiler [my whole quote] + God damnit, this is wtf. he NEVER posted a code with this, and seems to just be bullshitting. It also doesn't seem to fit with the "decoder" people found later. Trying to confuse town? Trying to kill a harmless green? (pandain) and i voted for veldril for reasons i explained above, which you quoted. i was wrong =\ but the reasons were there. his profile also had a quote from fate stay night, the "unlimited blade works" invocation -- which fit a clue pretty well too. or so i thought. so while masq's clue was the most obvious, i thought veldril had a nice one too, _and_ i thought getting him out early was better. That explains your *erroneous* vote for veldril, but what I was aiming at here was why did you choose to vote for lucktar? You didn't vote for Masq despite his clue, so why should lucktar's clue persuade you enough to vote for him? And now, I see that you have changed your vote to Artanis[xp]. Why? | ||
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United States3786 Posts
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+ Show Spoiler [Thegilaboy] + Wow just woke up for work and I see I have some reading to do! I've got a few pages in from where I left off last night and it seems a few suspects have begun to emerge. As with all past mafia games we can't rely so strongly on clues, especially on the first night, but in time they will be helpful indicators of who is scum. I actually like BM's approach the best with post analysis, as that is where you get a real inside look at the person and see their scummy tendencies. The voting list is somewhere to keep a close eye on as well. If some people switch their votes a lot it may indicate they are just trying to hop on the latest bandwagon for safety. The Masq clue seems pretty convincing right now, but I'm going to hold my vote a little longer after I get to finishing the last couple pages and letting the discussion go a little further. The first part is perfectly acceptable. I agree with it. Post analysis is indeed good. I also agree that people who switch votes a lot are probably bandwagon and so forth. First interesting note: Says Masq clue is pretty convincing, but holding off the vote. Either: He knows he will have time later so he can vote later (probable) Or: He knows Masq is his buddy vampire and thus is waiting for someone else to bandwagon onto to vote. Guess who he chooses? The green Veldril Not exactly. Zombies make up the bulk of the population, so they have the strongest voting power during the day. If you can get the Zombies rallied behind a cause, especially with the aid of some blues, town will get to vote whoever they want so long as they maintain their numbers. Also since there are so many townies, we have the greatest number of doing post analyses and clue analyses for our cause. Note the use of third person UNTIL the last line. Zombies make up… Zombies rally… town will get… Not we. Aside from that, pretty obvious post, but good for he new comers. I might be picking at straws. + Show Spoiler + Yeah I know what MH and D1 are lol, I've played some games of mafia before. I agree though, the clues on the first day especially can be misleading or simply too obvious. It's the posting actions of individuals that we should be most concerned about, coupled with voting tendencies and wild changes in who an individual votes for in a given day. We also have the difficult task of managing where our blue roles should be focused on tonight. With so many people there are a lot of options, and a lot of ways it could go wrong. This seems to me to be more important than first day lynch vote. Sure it's possible we'll hit scum, and we may even get wind of a trail that leads to a lot of it, but as in most games unfortunately a vanilla townie gets the rope. The blue roles need to get planning and so that they can establish their circle and hopefully find scum in a more convincing manner than clue analysis. I don't know if you're really this unaware of the rules or way the game works...Blues aren't going to out themselves so early in the game Good posts to help the beginners. + Show Spoiler + I'm trying to give the basics since he seems to be so unaware of how this game is played that I thought I'd lay down the foundation for him. I'm aware of how mafia games are played, I've played in plenty of them on and off this forum He has that many posts, but if you check his history this is his first mafia game, on TL at least. So yeah, even with 1900+ posts its possible someone has never played the game before Defending him? I'm just trying to explain to you why I was answering his questions since you questioned it. His argument with NB. Hmm, I’d think they don’t contact each other much because if this were a planned conversation, they wouldn’t be posting it so quickly as they would try to edit it a lot and make it “perfect.” It also started from Coagulation and Seraph, so I really doubt Gila has connections to mafia right now. You're a dick Man there is a lot of spam on this board, some people really need to tone down on the useless one-liners with no substance. Anyway, I tried catching up this morning, after wading through a lot of shit: Orglove is either a very enthusiastic townie, or he is a red trying to hold the reigns over a lot of newbies who will come to rely on his spreadsheet and and what I'll call "assessments." Spreadsheets are very useful, but you posting yours in every post is actually revealing information you should keep to yourself at times. But hey, you could be a very active townie and I might be off on my suspicions, I just think you might want to tone down on the spreadsheet since it has been found to be incorrect three times now I believe. I know we really want to get our first day's lynch in order since the hours are winding down, but that also means the hours are winding down on any coordination of our blue roles. I believe Pandain is attempting to coordinate MH placements, which can be a good thing for town even if he is red I suppose since he will be gunning for the other red team. Aztorisk may have jumped the gun on his role claim so early on, but that was partially due to the fact that the rules/descriptions weren't as clear as there are now. I know BM has been throwing around some ideas for Ghost placement in terms of the Masq/Veldril thing, anyone else have a thought on that? Anyway, back to rereading the last few pages again So, he’s thinking about voting between Masq and Veldril. Guess who he votes, DESPITE his earlier statement of “the masq clue being convincing?” He votes Veldril. Why? Probably because when he voted, it was 18-17. That’s right, he had a chance at saving his buddy Masq for Veldril. He joined the bandwagon of Veldril to try and save Masq. Note, he doesn’t even post any reasoning on WHY he voted Veldril in the first place instead of Masq. All pre-voting-Veldril Righteous. If there really was a connection between Masq and Veldril, we should expect to see mafia gunning for him tonight in hopes of snagging another vamp kill. Hopefully if any of the replacements for modkills are blues that they have enough time to catch up and get their role actions in check, we can't afford to lose those opportunities after getting such a lucky lynch at the beginning of the game. Anyway, I must be off for now, catch up on some z's, you all have a good one Reasonable post. That cat connection to Kpyolysis32 is about as obvious as Masq's pear connection, wow lol. Time to look through profiles and find something to do with a wretched smell Oh look, he says another person’s hint is as obvious as Masq’s. Well, this clearly means that he thinks Masq’s connection was OBVIOUS, and that kpyolysis32’s connection is obvious too! Why did he not vote for Masq then? This is true. As much as I'd like to think we've got another easy lynch like Masq because of an obvious clue, we can't read solely on clues and make quick accusations. Time for sleep, but I'll sleep more soundly knowing the streets run with red blood now He says Masq was an easy lynch, an obvious clue, and once again, he never voted for Masq on the first day. His day 1 vote goes COMPLETELY against what he’s saying. Talk one way->Vote another to try to save scummy friend, seems like a vampire(since he tried to save Masq and fought with NB) to me. I think for now I'm going to put my vote down for Veldril while I head out to work. His connection to Masq seems like a good one, and if he really is a vamp then killing him would take one KP from them and that seems huge in this game since there are so many potential KPs as is. We have some good connections for day 2, but I usually prefer voting based on activity and posting rather than clues alone since there is always the potential of red herrings. Okay, this is reasonable, but once again, he just changed his mind onto the bandwagon for Veldril. He, once again, left the obvious clue of kpylo for Veldril. A jungle cat could probably crush a skull...perhaps even a tiger? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=YummyBlaBla Hmmm, throwing accusations around, interesting. *note, his analysis of Node was too long for me to quote onto a word doc, so I just read it, thought about it, and found it pretty safe. Nothing really damning in there.* After the analysis, gila’s posting has been pretty consistent. I mean, there wasn’t anything disagreeable about them. They didn’t seem particularly scummy, but they weren’t helpful either. It’s just clutter. That's a really solid find SiNiquity. It fits very well: lightning strike, a large man, silver, and a hammer. Seems pretty damning so far. I'm prone to not trusting Pandain since he did say he had DTs claimed to him and that jodo was checked as vamp. Since jodo's unfortunate modkilling revealed him to be another one of our GRs, that sort of takes the wind out of Pandain's sails. I'm not sure why a townie would just lie like that though, and it makes me believe that he was either tricked or simply lied to by someone he trusted As of right now I like Artanis as a possible lynch, but we do have plenty of time to go over clues and posts again to make sure. I recommend people continue with the analysis methodology used earlier where you analyze the posts and profiles of the person above you on the sign up list. It's a great way to find inconsistencies and clue connections that may have been missed. All in all right now I think Artanis is one of our most solid choices for lynching. ARG, he accuses again! Let’s look at the list of his accusations(well, people who he believes to be red): Masq Veldril Kpylo Yummy Artosis. Who has he voted for? Only veldril. Has he ever voted with his clues despite him saying they were obvious? No. Instead, he’s been slinging shit around, trying to cast suspicion everywhere. I say that’s scummy behavior. Mixed with the fact that, ON DAY ONE, he voted Veldril instead of Masq? Pretty damning. Also, note this intesting fact. Here are people who voted for Veldril first day and were active in post count by the time of jaminz’s post count: NB with 30 Youngman with 40 BM/Glurio with 56 Annul with 18 And Gila with 20. I’d say we all think BM/Glurio seems pretty scummy, Gila does too. There’s also been 2 other reds in the group. Coincidence? I think not. | ||
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As far as lynching, I say we look at both clues and analyses and see what matches up. We should continue down both lanes, hopefully independently so less bias is involved, and maybe town can make a comeback. | ||
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Just to say, my analysis of Gila was correct. =/ | ||
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On October 21 2010 07:09 annul wrote: because dracula doesnt actually inherit powers my DT checked node, came back with his CORRECT role, and node confirmed it. my DT couldve rolefished, but then he has like what a 1/7 chance to get it right and a 6/7 chance to die as dracula. my DT is real. we will confirm another one tonight and increase this presence. Alternatively, you and Node could both be M/V and the DT being a figment of your imagination. =/ | ||
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And ugh, kenpachi's voting makes me upset. The guy lurks, never posts, then just bandwagons onto crap. I don't know if he's new, a bad townie, or just a lurking scum, but I reallllllllllllllllllllllly want to vote for him. | ||
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On October 21 2010 22:48 Nemesis wrote: It seems that we are finally having some constructive analysis here. Thumbs up to you KhrisKruel and hypberbola!  It seems that the most obvious reds are most likely vampires. I think it would be more beneficial to lynch a mafia today, but I don't really see any obvious mafia right now. For now, I'll vote MetalFace as the clue pointing to him killed a vampire so most likely he is mafia. I might change my vote later after I have done my own analysis if I have time, or after you guys are done with your analysis. Nahhh, it's really not that much more beneficial to lynch a mafia. Think about it this way guys: If we kill vamps, we can get their numbers down to 3. This means that they LOSE their chance at victory because to kill all the mafia, they'd have to bring mafia down to 3 first. That effectively neutralizes the Vampire into basically just a 3 person kill squad for the town. We can then bring them into our side and gain a kp. | ||
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On October 21 2010 23:53 annul wrote: fyi ghrur, that does not neutralize the vampires, it just forces them to wait until the deep endgame to attempt to win, due to our win condition's second clause Ahhh, right, totally forgot about that second clause. >_< | ||
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On October 22 2010 12:48 AirbladeOrange wrote: What time is the lynching going down? In about 10 minutes if I'm right. | ||
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On October 25 2010 06:10 KhrisKruel wrote: I'm not voting kitaman or heavonearth. You guys are voting him because of dumb clue analysis. kenpachi is scummy as shit, HE BANDWAGONS AGAIN, he hasn't contribued jackshit to this discussion, and you're letting him live again. I refuse to vote for people that the only thing you have on them is clues Are you kidding? Heavonearth has been scummy as shit too. Here's my analysis: + Show Spoiler + First note, he's only had like 6 posts this whole thread. Basically, lurking in the background while voting for NON-vampire people. I mean, his votes have been: Day 1 - Veldril (followed BM's analysis... and that's it, no more posts about it) Day 2 - Veldril Day 3 - Glurio Day 4 - Hittegods and switched into Kenpachi ONLY after the bandwagon started to get big on Kenpachi. Day 5 - Kitaman27 (once again, a bandwagon) Guess what, he made the vote AFTER his last post in the thread meaning he hasn't yet posted his justification for this vote. On October 12 2010 19:29 HeavOnEarth wrote: Wow after reading the thread I am thoroughly convinced we may have a mafia/vampire kill on day 1- Veldril. Nice work spotting him Bill + Show Spoiler [veldril's posts] + On October 11 2010 14:46 Veldril wrote: Reporting in. Many victims seems to die by a weapon, maybe most are killed by mafia? Or maybe the vampire mimic the mafia style? However, I'm not sure is this important or not. Also, nice find Glasse. That's really helpful. But maybe we can get more clue from the first night post that make the mafia/vamp more visible. On October 11 2010 15:03 Veldril wrote: Hey, he's killed by a dagger not sword, lol. And if you buy enough knives then you can literally pierce a person at every spot. On October 11 2010 15:08 Veldril wrote: Actually this is from his younger self one. But in this game I would like to be the one in my profile picture more, lol. On October 11 2010 15:11 Veldril wrote: Another thing is that are we too readily to blame Masq for the kill? The evidence is quite obvious but it could be too obvious sometimes. We need to be a little bit more careful about voting. On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote: I don't have one specific in my mind right now (that's why I don't vote yet). But I have some idea... Firstly, because the Mafia and Vampire knows who are on the same team with them, they would want to deflect the blame if a person in his team is suspected. A person who rashly accuses other person could be a Mafia or a Vampire, especially on Day 1. Note that this is not about presenting suspicious players' profiles. But it's more about looking at only one profile and making an accusation without analysis or with an over-analysis. Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it. On October 11 2010 15:40 Veldril wrote: Oh and by Mafia/Vampire deflecting blame in the first point of my previous post is that if they are lucky, they could kill other side too. For Mafia/Vampire, I think they don't care much about who dies in the first couple of days/nights as long as it's not on their side. Townie dies mean they have less choice to make in the next cycle and if they can force townie to vote to kill the other side, then that would make them even have more profit. Oh and I don't say that Masq is surely not a killer. I just think we need to look further for other clues too before accusing him solely. But he's one of the suspects though. (Maybe I need a ghost in the first night  ).On October 12 2010 00:43 Veldril wrote: Oh well, I think I deserve to be suspected for protecting Masq. But let's be clear, I'm suspecting Masq too but I don't want to draw conclusion based solely on the story that the GM wrote. To quote what Dr.H written in the introduction: That means the clue might hurt townie like us too. Now let me response to Bill Murray's post: I like your post here. Yes, I was absolutely did a bad post and deserve to be suspected. But after reading Ver's guide, do you think I would make a same mistake that Misder made in the past? I think not. Could you please clarify how I admitted that I'm a mafia/vampire? Because I defended Masq? I guess your logic is something like this. If someone is a mafia/vampire then that person would defend blame on his team mate. If a person defend other person then those people are teammate. Veldril defend Masq Therefore,Veldril and Masq are team mate. Therefore, Veldril and Masq are vampire. If your logic is like above then I think you have made both formal fallacy and informal fallacy. With an experienced player like you, it is unlikely that you would make such fallacies, unless you ignore them to make an accusation on me with some agendas. Of course, I could be wrong but in that case, could you please clarify why do you think I team up with Masq please? On October 12 2010 00:46 Veldril wrote: Oh and Bill, I concluded that you are experienced player because you participated in many Mafia game before. You even hosted a game. I checked your post history. On October 12 2010 02:12 Veldril wrote: After spending time reading rules, I do agree that miss-lynch on the first day is not a big issue. We have 61 players here, with 22 reds. That we have 39 greens/blues. Considering that mafias and vampires each can kill up to 3 people (or have to kill three people I'm not sure, might need clarification on this), we can say that on the first day plus first night, there will be up to 7 people dead. If all dead are hit at townie, then townie will have 32 player left. And worst case would be 7 of either vampire or mafia are killed (only single side), which I believe is very unlikely. On October 12 2010 03:14 Veldril wrote: Oh yeah, I miscounted and forgot about that. Thanks for a reminder and correction. On October 12 2010 03:50 Veldril wrote: You can accuse me as much as you like. That doesn't refute my point I made earlier about you. Oh and nice about forcing Aztorisk to vote me by publishing the PM. On October 12 2010 04:00 Veldril wrote: type (blue) message (/blue) but replacing () with [] Example: blue green red On October 12 2010 04:07 Veldril wrote: Hmmm, fair enough. You have your points spoken and that's fine for me. Well, maybe I jumped my conclusion that "experienced player = player familiar with logic" so if that's not true then my argument would be unsound. But since we really don't know is it true or not, we could just left it for others to decide. On October 12 2010 04:21 Veldril wrote: Deconduo has posted once. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=159453¤tpage=17#327 On October 12 2010 04:30 Veldril wrote: Ah I see, seems to miss your post. Anyway, off to sleep now since it's night here in Asia. On October 12 2010 19:02 Veldril wrote: It seems most people are out for my blood now. I feel like now when I try to defend or propose something up, most people will come up with even more excuses to vote me. It seems I really made a grudge with Bill Murray, since he's the most vocal to get me killed. I don't really understand why you would want me to get lynched so badly. I would shift a vote off you if you have explain the reason why do you think "defending others" would mean "Red defends Red". Also, I feel that either me or Masq get lynched, it would not be a good situation for Townie or me at all. If Masq get lynched and turn out to be red, people would still suspect me and that could hurt townie since they would spend their focus on me being red and I would still get fried. If Masq turn out to be green, I don't think some people will let me go free without discrediting me, therefore I could not make impact in the future day/night. However, if I get lynched today, it would be a game over. It may seems cowardice but I will have to vote for Masq to save myself. I just wish that Masq indeed turns out to be green. WOW, contributing nothing to the thread! Great, perfect! And supporting the vote for Veldril started by BM! Hmmm, scummy much? It's basically saying, hey, I'll bandwagon to save my friend Masq. + Show Spoiler + On October 18 2010 03:07 HeavOnEarth wrote: Hey guys. I've been super busy with university work( 2nd year Chemical Engineer), so i've only had time to vote for suspects that were posted in the thread. As for Pandain, i have to point out his analysis of me is completely wrong First off, my quote isn't "Sobriety is a sin whose destruction ought be perused without abandon." as you guys can clearly see for yourselves this is also false, the album picture in my profile, does not have songs of the storm listed This is the image: ![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/0e/Insomnium_-_Since_the_Day_it_All_Came_Down.jpg) and the album tracks: http://artists.letssingit.com/insomnium-album-since-the-day-it-all-came-down-92g736 you can clearly see that pandain's claims are false. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=6621623 ^ his post for quoting reference Also, he wrongly claimed that jodogohoo was vampire, and you guys followed him with that as well. Clearly, he was not. I don't see why you guys would defend the points of Pandain who has been wrong all game. I know i haven't been active, and im sorry for that, which led to me lynching Veld , but if you want to claim me for that, you might as well lynch half the town, as a large majority of them also voted for veld as well. Now look at this. He comes in to defend himself, and then point a finger at a townie Pandain, and then leaves. This doesn't help at all. All it does is protect himself and then cause suspicion and paranoia for the town. On October 21 2010 10:35 HeavOnEarth wrote: Hi, I'm going to be a lot more active now, just finished a shitton of tests Also, i think the hitte clue is pretty solid. As for his voting, look here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=6575537 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=6575592 Bumatlarge was also vamp. This is called, bussing , i believe. When your ally (vamp) has no chance of living, so you vote him. Bumatlarge did this, and i suspect hittegod did as well. As for artanis, Vampire hit artanis this night (which means they knew he was mafia) So they wouldve obviously tried to lynch him, as to have not wasted a hit. I believe this is a very solid vampire lynch if we lynch hittegods. Here, he's basically advocating for Hittegod's lynch. Guess what, hittegod turned out BLUE! You know what's the great part of being a vampire? You know who's NOT vampire, aka greens, blues, and mafia. Hittegod just turned out to be blue. So let's see, so far, he's supported an accusation of a green (Veldril), accused a green himself (Pandain), and accused a blue himself (Hitte). Well, that's just dandy. He also voted for Veldril Day 1 and Glurio Day 3, both of whom were NOT red. On October 21 2010 11:11 HeavOnEarth wrote: Until we find someone else the baseball bat clue relates to, im inclined to believe he is scum Still supporting the lynch of a blue (Hittegod) On October 21 2010 12:50 HeavOnEarth wrote: I like your plan of publicly claiming blues , as counter intuitive as it seems, vamp/mafia won't go after them. In fact , they will cross them off the list completely, and go after other people which is awesome for the town. One question though, how do you know node isn't Dracula? Or anyone else you checked( i dont remember seeing you have any other confirmed ones) Semi-useful post if people don't think about Dracula at all. I guess it's good as a reminder? On October 21 2010 13:05 HeavOnEarth wrote: This is going to end up with mafia/ or vamp starting a bandwagon unless we- GIVE A REASON FOR VOTING. Just look at last lynch, And the lynch before that. Hahaha, the irony of this. Look, he says GIVE A REASON FOR VOTING, and what does he do? Not give a reason for voting glurio or kitaman. Oh, this contradiction is quite delicious, don't ya think? And speaking of bandwagons... who always follows the bandwagons that go after blues/greens? Heavonearth. Hmmmmm, interesting. Basically, this dude is scum. He made ONE post, exactly ONE before voting on Veldril the first day. And that post basically said, I'm following BM and that's it. It added no content, and it was a bandwagon. The guy was trying to save his buddy Masq, that's all. Aside from that, he's accused Pandain... and then voted for Glurio. Fact is, he said Pandain was scummy for being wrong all the time, but he never voted for the panda. He NEVER gave a reason for voting Glurio. He just bandwagoned. Then, he voted for Hittegod and had a reason, but never explained why he switched to Kenpachi! This voting without explanation, and votes always seem to be town-aligned players makes him really seem scummy. I say lynch him. =/ Voting for him now. | ||
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On October 25 2010 11:29 zerroth wrote: I've already voted for him. Seems like just bandwagoning stuff to stay low. Any way, by you're analysis, he will turn out vamp. That leaves a 4-5 with vamps still have their count dracula. Does vamps also still have a brute or they only had 1? It's all theory to guess whether they still have more brutes left or not. =/ We can say that they most likely only had one, but with all the JoLs, idk. We can't tell. =/ | ||
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We can even start a little gambling, maybe get Rekrul in on the act, hahaha. | ||
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On October 25 2010 13:11 Kenpachi wrote: i bet you aztrorisk! aztrorisk vs grandmoose gogo I feel pity for you. I'll give you 1.1-1 odds. 5 Liquidvania coins. Let's go. | ||
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 Heavonearth was Mafia instead of Vampire. | ||
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It'd be really nice to know right now... | ||
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It's mutually beneficial. Town gets a smaller range of targets. Mafia gets safety from town lynch. | ||
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On October 27 2010 11:25 SiNiquity wrote: No I mean how could they, and more importantly we, be certain that you're not vamp? Those names in the wrong hands would mean we lose after this lynch. Analyze my posts. I'm town. I've been advocating for lynches of vamps/mafia this whole time through, and I've written up 4 analyses on people's posting behaviors with suspicions on Metalface, Gilaboy, and Heavonearth. Also, trust, and the fact that I told Mafia I'd PROVE it to them in PM. | ||
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On October 27 2010 12:20 jcarlsoniv wrote: I trust that you're town, however, I'm more worried about vamps false claiming to you as mafia. Be careful. Oh, that's my concern too until I realized Mafia know each other.  And me being green? As I said, I can prove it, and analyze my posts. I'm green as can be | ||
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I had suspicions on annul right off the bat and I never pushed it through. >_< FFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUU. I also had suspicions on kitaman, but never did anything about it... sigh. Such fail. >_< If only I did more analysis. God T_T sad game as townie for me. | ||
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