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On October 14 2010 13:41 Coagulation wrote: HOLY FUCKING CAT Kpyolysis32
i dont wanna seem kind of harsh but if this isnt an obvious link to scum then i dont know what is.
Guys, the clues won't be as obvious as the one we used to lynch Masq. They could be, yes. I don't believe they will be though. Stop pointing fingers so fast, I don't want another Day 1 shit show -_-
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Also remember that it is possible that some clues are deliberate Red Herrings. I believe Dr. H admitting that this is a possibility.
I'm curious what information our blues gathered in the night.
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On October 14 2010 19:42 KhrisKruel wrote: I want to put my two cents in about blue roles.
Firstly, if you have a blue role, for the love of god don't claim unless you have a good reason. Don't even hint at them. You are giving the scum more information to easily make their nightkills.
Secondly, don't discuss what blue roles need to do. NB did this during day 1, and he was the mafia godfather. Blue roles will do what blue roles do, and they will give us information when they want us to.
Thirdly, don't claim to people in PM's. Don't listen to them when they say others have already claimed. You have no idea if they are townie or not, and knowing who you are you will die and the town will lose a blue role.
If that person tries to gain your trust by showing you a PM of them from DrH, they're cheating. They can tell you any role they have. All role PMs are public. Also, we were given two role pms, one of which has been changed. How do you know he isn't showing you the one given before?
As a rule, people discussing blue actions and asking people to PM them are never trustworthy. I hope the newbies to mafia don't fall into this. If you are a blue role, do what you think is best and don't listen to what anyone else tells you. Don't play WIFOM games of "well if we talk abou tit, then it won't happen." Just do what you believe is best. Don't worry about failing. Failing would be letting the mafia influence your night action for their benefit.
As a rule I'm highly suspicious of anyone discussing blue actions publicly.
This is highly cynical and I'm going to argue that it is just a stupid idea entirely.
There needs to be structure in this game. It is inherently hard to build that town structure in this game because you can't trust ANYONE. However, that does not mean everyone should keep secrets. PMs should be had between people, and trust should be -tried- to be gained. If everyone just does their own thing, it will be the most chaotic game ever.
If you honestly suspect people just for suggesting blue actions, then you would already know that I was theorycrafting what blues could do for Night 1 (unless everyone just ignores my posts, in which case *sadface*). If you are going to suspect me for that, then go ahead, it will be a waste.
Blues shouldn't blindly declare, and certainly shouldn't publicly declare, but that's not to say that there shouldn't be an attempt to make some structure.
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On October 14 2010 22:55 KhrisKruel wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2010 21:25 jcarlsoniv wrote:On October 14 2010 19:42 KhrisKruel wrote: I want to put my two cents in about blue roles.
Firstly, if you have a blue role, for the love of god don't claim unless you have a good reason. Don't even hint at them. You are giving the scum more information to easily make their nightkills.
Secondly, don't discuss what blue roles need to do. NB did this during day 1, and he was the mafia godfather. Blue roles will do what blue roles do, and they will give us information when they want us to.
Thirdly, don't claim to people in PM's. Don't listen to them when they say others have already claimed. You have no idea if they are townie or not, and knowing who you are you will die and the town will lose a blue role.
If that person tries to gain your trust by showing you a PM of them from DrH, they're cheating. They can tell you any role they have. All role PMs are public. Also, we were given two role pms, one of which has been changed. How do you know he isn't showing you the one given before?
As a rule, people discussing blue actions and asking people to PM them are never trustworthy. I hope the newbies to mafia don't fall into this. If you are a blue role, do what you think is best and don't listen to what anyone else tells you. Don't play WIFOM games of "well if we talk abou tit, then it won't happen." Just do what you believe is best. Don't worry about failing. Failing would be letting the mafia influence your night action for their benefit.
As a rule I'm highly suspicious of anyone discussing blue actions publicly. This is highly cynical and I'm going to argue that it is just a stupid idea entirely. There needs to be structure in this game. It is inherently hard to build that town structure in this game because you can't trust ANYONE. However, that does not mean everyone should keep secrets. PMs should be had between people, and trust should be -tried- to be gained. If everyone just does their own thing, it will be the most chaotic game ever. If you honestly suspect people just for suggesting blue actions, then you would already know that I was theorycrafting what blues could do for Night 1 (unless everyone just ignores my posts, in which case *sadface*). If you are going to suspect me for that, then go ahead, it will be a waste. Blues shouldn't blindly declare, and certainly shouldn't publicly declare, but that's not to say that there shouldn't be an attempt to make some structure. Yes I suspect you. I Don't trust anyone trying to control blue actions. The town doesn't need structure until late in the game when roles are pretty much confirmed. At that point a mass claim is correct. Early in the game its better just to let blues do what they want. Besides, who is going to control the structure? Why would anyone trust anyone? If you claim to a mafia, you'll just die the next night. Any blue claiming to an unknown person has got to be completely retarded. Players that are new to the game might fall for these dumb tactics.
I have not been trying to control the blues. I have merely made suggestions about possible targets, and put in my opinions of where blues could go.
I never said that I was the person to trust. If people were to claim to me, they would have my trust, but there is no way for anyone to know that unless I am role checked. I am not TRYING to control the blues, I am only saying that having no structure is futile.
The Mafia/Vampire win conditions are to kill all of the enemy faction. They do not win by killing townies. Townies will die, sure. But us dying won't get the M/V any closer to a win. The mafia and vampires are already structured, they know their allies and who they can target. The town is set back extremely by not knowing anything. We are fortunate that we have had this many scum die thus far, but that does not mean we can sit on our asses and hope that a chaotic bumblefuck of townies will win in the end. Even if, as you claim, a structure is not needed until late game, it is difficult to set one up at the blink of an eye. We need to start now.
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On October 15 2010 00:30 seRapH wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2010 00:26 CubEdIn wrote:On October 14 2010 20:56 Hittegods wrote:On October 14 2010 18:38 CubEdIn wrote: I want to vote for BM's replacement, but I can't help thinking it's sort-of unfair.
Why? Well, if you read the mafia ban list thread, you'll see that:
1. BM threatened to reveal ALL his PMs 2. DrH was "shocked" about him doing this.
Now, of course, I know that DrH could be shocked because BM is a veteran, and he shouldn't have acted like that, sure, but also, he could have been surprised because revealing his PMs would ruin the game.
And it would only ruin the game if he were M/V, and he got a lot of PMs from the other team members. Also, BM claimed to have >70 PMs, why would a townie have so many PMs?
I don't know. I'd like NOT to vote for him, for the sake of the "good-game-spirit", but in my head, I'm 90% sure he is M/V. He messaged more or less everyone who posted about who their top suspects were. This would no doubt generate a lot of messages. Yes, it -somewhat- explains the number of messages, but then again, it's the kind of thing a red would do. Pick-up clues. Also, the thing that urges me on is DrH's reaction to BM's threat. It's not damning, but it's sure suspicious. I explained why. He's not off my radar. And thirdly, does't it strike you as odd that all but one kills were on target? I mean sure, M/V have more information, but this was A LOT of information. Basically, only one or two of the kills tonight even came up in our suspects list, how did the others know who to go for? I'm intrigued. The high accuracy rate surprises me too. Either I suck more at this game than I thought or something big is happening in PM land.I doubt the mafia was looking to kill vamp brute, or vamps looked for GF, and both sides just got lucky. All in all its still really really surprising.
Or both, haha... =P
It is tough to fathom how BM had so many PMs, but judging from the amount of people who posted their PMs with him, I suppose it is possible. If he PMd everyone in the game, he most likely got at least one response. Most of these probably evolved into at least small conversations, so it is feasible. Regardless, it doesn't make me not-suspicious (god these double negatives are killing me).
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On October 15 2010 01:37 deconduo wrote: Don't forget that the vamps might have more than one brute.
True. But the fact that one is gone is a HUGE deal, regardless if there is another.
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On October 15 2010 11:04 Node wrote:Kpyolisis32 is pretty damn sketchy in my book. Forget the damn cat for a moment, and just look at the way he's been posting: Show nested quote +On October 14 2010 13:25 Kpyolysis32 wrote: By the way, the clue in LSB's death does look a hell of a lot like I did it, with the cat. It's bound to come up, so I'll just point it out now so we don't waste time. I mean, this statement is so weird no matter how you look at it. It's just, "Yep, the clue points to me. That's all." He doesn't defend himself. He doesn't deny that it was him, or provide other potential suspects. To me, it just looks like a ploy to gain some townie cred by implicating himself just a little bit, hoping that people will move on accepting that there's no way a red would provide evidence against himself. The only defense we get is: Show nested quote +On October 14 2010 13:28 Kpyolysis32 wrote:On October 14 2010 13:27 KhrisKruel wrote:
why would you implicate yourself? It's going to come up either way, may as well point it out sooner. I'm not saying I did do it (I didn't, for what that's worth), but it's by far the most obvious implication of that clue. I don't like it. I don't like it one bit.
Y'know, this actually makes some sense. There are a lot of good suspicions this day, and good analysis from a lot of players. I'm sad I haven't been very active, the next couple days for me will be very busy. I trying to keep up by reading on my phone when I get the chance, but I don't often have time to craft a response via iphone touch pad.
On October 15 2010 12:46 Pandain wrote: no one continue to vote vendril.
I need to check something...and we have a whole 'nother day.
I am going to be playing Day 2 a bit more passively and see what others come up for as ideas. I will hold off on a vote for a little while because I don't want to switch often. I will try to post a bit more when I wake up. For now, I bid you good morrow!
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Holy crap there are already a lot of votes on Veldril.
I haven't gotten to read all of Day 2, but has nothing new developed? It sort of just feels like we're bandwagoning Day 1's discussion. Do I think Veldril should go? Yeah, probably. Just surprised that no one new has really gained more suspicion.
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On October 15 2010 21:38 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2010 20:54 jcarlsoniv wrote: Holy crap there are already a lot of votes on Veldril.
I haven't gotten to read all of Day 2, but has nothing new developed? It sort of just feels like we're bandwagoning Day 1's discussion. Do I think Veldril should go? Yeah, probably. Just surprised that no one new has really gained more suspicion. It's not just that. There are some people who have gained a lot of suspicion, but none nearly as much as Veldril, AND if we're right, it will reduce Vamp KP by 1. So it's a pretty high-priority target. ...unless we're wrong, which is what I'm most scared of right now. 
Yeah, we may be wrong, but let's look at the scenarios:
1. He's townie - not that big of a deal. We have a decent lead, we can afford one or two townie kills. 2. He's blue - this is worst case scenario, losing a blue would suck. 3. He's Vampire - Vampires lose a kill point, Mafia has a decent edge on Vamps, we would need to start focusing on finding Mafia. 4. He's Mafia - Mafia and Vamps are more even, Vamps still have 3 KP.
Even if each scenario has an equal percentage chance of income, we have a 75% chance of it not going badly for the town.
I see scenarios 3 and 4 to be about equally beneficial. 3 is more beneficial for Night 2, while 4 is more beneficial for the long run of the game.
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EBWOP: I meant equal percent chance of occurrence, not income. Sitting in accounting class right now, haha -_-
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On October 15 2010 22:15 KhrisKruel wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2010 22:05 jcarlsoniv wrote:On October 15 2010 21:38 CubEdIn wrote:On October 15 2010 20:54 jcarlsoniv wrote: Holy crap there are already a lot of votes on Veldril.
I haven't gotten to read all of Day 2, but has nothing new developed? It sort of just feels like we're bandwagoning Day 1's discussion. Do I think Veldril should go? Yeah, probably. Just surprised that no one new has really gained more suspicion. It's not just that. There are some people who have gained a lot of suspicion, but none nearly as much as Veldril, AND if we're right, it will reduce Vamp KP by 1. So it's a pretty high-priority target. ...unless we're wrong, which is what I'm most scared of right now.  Yeah, we may be wrong, but let's look at the scenarios: 1. He's townie - not that big of a deal. We have a decent lead, we can afford one or two townie kills. 2. He's blue - this is worst case scenario, losing a blue would suck. 3. He's Vampire - Vampires lose a kill point, Mafia has a decent edge on Vamps, we would need to start focusing on finding Mafia. 4. He's Mafia - Mafia and Vamps are more even, Vamps still have 3 KP. Even if each scenario has an equal percentage chance of income, we have a 75% chance of it not going badly for the town. I see scenarios 3 and 4 to be about equally beneficial. 3 is more beneficial for Night 2, while 4 is more beneficial for the long run of the game. You do realize this can be said about every player in the game. This post reeks of "I don't care if Veldril dies"
I'm not sure how it reeks of "I don't care if Veldril dies." I am putting my thoughts down and sharing them.
It could be said for everyone, yes, but I'm trying to generate discussion. I feel Veldril is either green or scum, I think (hope) he wouldn't play so recklessly if he were blue. So lynching him has a low chance of having a negative effect on the town. We have a bit of leeway to accidentally lynch a townie. I'm not sure if I'd prefer to lynch Vamp or Mafia at this point. Having one less kill per night would be sweet, but not giving Mafia a significant lead would also be awesome.
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On October 15 2010 22:40 KhrisKruel wrote: Actually, now that I think about it, it does mean you care if Veldril dies.
You give completely illogical numbers. Anyone can see from the OP its not an equal chance of being each. Your numbers heavily skew towards advantageous numbers.
A townie lynch is not good. Ever. Sad that you would think that. I know scum would think that townie kills are good though.
With your illogical numbers, and no vote yourself, your post screams "I want Veldril dead but I don't want to get my hands dirty." Even if you do plan to vote for him, if this is really your reasoning, then that's scummy.
You are so dumb, you are really dumb, for real. (sorry, had to quote the meme)
I said "even if they are equal chances". I know there is not an equal chance of occurring. I also never said killing a townie is good. I said we could afford to cobviouslly I would much prefer a scum kill, but if a townie gets lynched accidentally, I'm not going to go cut myself over it.
I have not voted yet because over the last 48 hours I have been training for an exhibition show, so I have not been able to read thoroughly, and thus, I am reserving myself.
You are attacking me for brainstorming. Welcome to my shot list, buddy.
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On October 15 2010 22:55 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2010 22:05 jcarlsoniv wrote:On October 15 2010 21:38 CubEdIn wrote:On October 15 2010 20:54 jcarlsoniv wrote: Holy crap there are already a lot of votes on Veldril.
I haven't gotten to read all of Day 2, but has nothing new developed? It sort of just feels like we're bandwagoning Day 1's discussion. Do I think Veldril should go? Yeah, probably. Just surprised that no one new has really gained more suspicion. It's not just that. There are some people who have gained a lot of suspicion, but none nearly as much as Veldril, AND if we're right, it will reduce Vamp KP by 1. So it's a pretty high-priority target. ...unless we're wrong, which is what I'm most scared of right now.  Yeah, we may be wrong, but let's look at the scenarios: 1. He's townie - not that big of a deal. We have a decent lead, we can afford one or two townie kills. 2. He's blue - this is worst case scenario, losing a blue would suck. 3. He's Vampire - Vampires lose a kill point, Mafia has a decent edge on Vamps, we would need to start focusing on finding Mafia. 4. He's Mafia - Mafia and Vamps are more even, Vamps still have 3 KP. Even if each scenario has an equal percentage chance of income, we have a 75% chance of it not going badly for the town. I see scenarios 3 and 4 to be about equally beneficial. 3 is more beneficial for Night 2, while 4 is more beneficial for the long run of the game. 1. Bad 2. Very Bad 3. Kinda Bad (Maf quite close to winning) 4. Good 75% chance of it going bad. I don't think the maths matter though, if veldril is scum, its 99% that he's a vamp rather than a maf. I don't think lynching him is a good idea.
I see it as:
1. Not favorable (but not detrimental) 2. Terribad 3. Good, but not preferable 4. Great
And this is why I'm posting my thoughts. To generate this kind of discussion.
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Agreed Lexpar. After today, we need to try and find Mafia members. If our detective(s) and Mad Scientist(s) and Boogeyman(...men?) could get as much information as possible for Day 3, it would really help the town.
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Pandain, that's a good, thorough analysis, and I agree with you. A while back I did an analysis on about the first half of his posts.
Backs down. I had a pm with Dr. H that one of the major scum tells is someone accusing/making a point, then backing down. Now, obviously townies can do this all the time, but it points towards a scum.
I thought we couldn't discuss PMs shared with mods... :3
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Can the Poison Fang poison someone once every night? If so, we need to search for and get rid of him quickly.
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Orgo, you are getting very personal.
Do I think that Coag has made mistakes playing? Sure. I am suspicious of him, and I have held my suspicions from the start. However, there is no reason to bash his intelligence.
I have been watching your posts, and you go on heavy offensive against a lot of people. You quote them and analyze them, but you attack them. Your spreadsheet was cool, nice tool for the town. I do, however, think you were using it as a means to get control of the town. You were using it to make yourself a power poster. I no longer believe your intentions are pure, as I did when I gave you the benefit of the doubt when we started. More and more you're coming on as scum to me.
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On October 16 2010 12:25 orgolove wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2010 12:11 jcarlsoniv wrote: Orgo, you are getting very personal.
Do I think that Coag has made mistakes playing? Sure. I am suspicious of him, and I have held my suspicions from the start. However, there is no reason to bash his intelligence.
I have been watching your posts, and you go on heavy offensive against a lot of people. You quote them and analyze them, but you attack them. Your spreadsheet was cool, nice tool for the town. I do, however, think you were using it as a means to get control of the town. You were using it to make yourself a power poster. I no longer believe your intentions are pure, as I did when I gave you the benefit of the doubt when we started. More and more you're coming on as scum to me. I post things that I notice, and show evidence that support those things, if any. If you are so offended by that, then perhaps you have something to hide - and would rather that someone does NOT place a careful eye over everyone's activities? And I've been ridiculed through both PMs as well as this thread for what was an honest effort of many hours. I should have known better than to expect any more from an internet forum -.- Believe what you may, but it was meant as a tool, not as a weapon.
I have nothing to fear from someone keeping an eye on posts. All good players SHOULD keep a close eye on posts. If you really wish to analyze my posts and find your suspicions, go ahead. It will be a waste of your time. I have made my posts with content and with purpose.
I am not ridiculing you for your spreadsheet. I know it took a lot of work, if you recall, I gave you some of my own analyses to help you out. However, just because it was a good tool does not mean that I will go without my own suspicions.
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*sitting waiting for "Night of the 2nd Day...36 hours remain."*
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