/in
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Forum Index > TL Mafia |
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/in EDIT: See below | ||
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Sign up LSB and Pyrrhuloxia | ||
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Team Mini Mafia would be the perfect game for you! You'll have a partner giving you experienced tips and advice! (unless your partner is Infun. Don't listen to him) Join! It's easy! Just post "/in" If you don't want to join, just post "/in" also. | ||
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Wow, every game seems to flow nicely. I get killed in XXX, Penalty Mafia starts. Penalty Mafia ends, PyP immediately starts. Last day of PyP, Callers game starts. Callers game has 1 night/day max, this game starts! =D! | ||
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On August 10 2010 01:40 Korynne wrote: Team List: 1. LSB and Pyrrhuloxia 2. bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea 3. rastaban and Foolishness 4. Ace and Bill Murray 5. Pandain and BrownBear 6. BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD 7. meeple and YellowInk 8. Infundibulum and Incognito Setup: 1 Cop, 1 Doc, 2 Mafia, 3 Townies 1 Cop, 2 Mafia, 4 Townies 1 Doc, 2 Mafia, 4 Townies 2 Mafia, 5 Townies I think that's the role list. Well... I used to think that's the role list, but there are 8 teams and 7 roles | ||
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I always knew that Mysterious Ladies are the sickest. Why can't you be like a Kenyan Prince and just want my money? | ||
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They know it to: On August 18 2010 14:32 bumatlarge wrote: What happens when bum, the most obvious townie in the world, and divine, the scummiest townie in the world, JOIN FORCES? FIND OUT NEXT TIME ON DRAGON BALL ZEEEEE | ||
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I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan? Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone? | ||
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On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote: I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? On September 20 2010 01:57 Pandain wrote: In addition, who do we lynch today? Well, i'm starting to think we should lynch one of South, Divinek, or Bumatlarge. Lynching one will confirm the two others, helping us in future scum hunting and decision. If mafia try to take these confirmed out, its alright, because they aren't exactly "vets" and it'll take two turns for mafia to finish them off. However, I sort of doubt they'll go for them as they'll probably go for the vets themselves. So I take it we're not going to follow this. | ||
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On September 20 2010 02:32 Pandain wrote: LSB, does pyrr know hes in this game lol? He hasn't posted at all. XD Yeah I talked to him a bit, but the game just started. I'll yell at him to post next time I catch him. On September 20 2010 02:53 YellowInk wrote: Show nested quote + Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice.On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote: On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote: I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? However, I do agree with Ace. Ace's question needs to be answered and Bill Murray needs to show that he'll help the town. Then we'll see how things go. kk. Just remember, we don't have enough room for policy lynches. | ||
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Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight Rastaban/Foolishness: Based on the Premise that they are more inactive than usual. Foolishness pops out and disproves that. Neither one I like | ||
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On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote: Show nested quote + On September 20 2010 01:03 LSB wrote: The main problem with Incognito's plan is that the existence of a DT and a Medic is not guaranteed. I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan? Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone? You probably didn't read the whole way through my post. Anyway, basically mafia must always act as if there are DTs/Medics unless they want to screw themselves over. In this case, the threat holds weight even if the execution is impossible to carry out because the mafia can't know whether or not the threat is real. Town, on the other hand, shouldn't really care about if its possible or not. That's something the mafia has to worry about. I don't have any other games where this has been tried. But why is that relevant? In reference to your last question, I'll quote Foolishness here: Yes I did read your post. I understand that the mafia will have to act, that why I like your idea. The main problem is that in order to implement the plan, we will have to use the blue roles in a way that they won't be actively hunting/blocking the mafia. The DT will be checking the bottom of the list of activity/people not contributing right? Mafia knows that and will contribute The Medic will be protecting the top of the list of activity right? The mafia won't hit there. I'm just concerned about what cost we have to pay for activity. You now mention that the Medics/DT may or may not follow the plan, and it's all psychological. Mafia knows this too, and then the plan crumbles since the mafia will assume that the Medics/DT will not follow it. Rock paper sizzors | ||
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On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote: First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset. Okay, obviously you haven’t played with me much. Mafia XXX was my rookie game, and it had some exceptional circumstances. First of all, it had lots of varied blue roles. That way planning was possible. On the other hand, Kor is following E9+1 townie. This setup is made so it isn’t able to be broken. It is slightly town favored. Simply put, there is no plan that is optimal because we do not know the existence of blue roles. Secondly, PYP I supported the plan because it was solid. I did not support your plan because it’s mafia favored Also, what happened to my Penalty mafia, and my RAM mafia games? To call me a planner in those games is laughable. In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism. First, could you answer this question? I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan? I want to read other games where this plan works. I don’t know how you got this to be stir the pot. What part of Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone? Do you not get? Where is the erroneous logic? I admit, the DT I thought of later, that is why I turned against your plan. Because it really is mafia favored. In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Since when have I proposed fixes for broken plans? There are no fixes, we junk the plan and move on. Your acting like a baby, crying that your toy is broken, throwing a tantrum because other people can’t fix it Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent. To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies | ||
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On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote: There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. Show nested quote + On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. | ||
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The No Lynch will give the Mafia another kill. But at the same time, it gives us another DT check, it gives us another Medic protection. (Assuming they exist). And it won’t actually shorten lylo date. With or without No lynch, we have 2 mislynchs till we lose. It doesn’t change I’m not saying we have to use it now. I’m just saying, if we don’t use it today, we should use it tomorrow. That way we can take advantage of the No-Lynch benefits. | ||
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Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful. Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action". This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him. Anyways, I'll still post my thoughts Divinek + Show Spoiler + Firstly I'm looking at Divinek's actions actions in Callers game. (He is anti-town, dunno the full story yet) Did a few accusations, nothing major. Was more of a bandwagoner The main thing is, he doesn't defend himself much. He just tries to laugh things off. He also ignored my accusations in Penalty mafia (He was mafia). Likewise in Penalty mafia he was a bandwagoner. So look for: Laugh accusations off, bandwagons The main thing is, it seems that he is jumping to defend himself at the littlest things now, small accusations that are extremely far fetched. On September 19 2010 11:40 meeple wrote: I'm wondering if Korynne would put Southrawrea into a group of reds... I don't think she picked that group by random and also wondering if having a group of three is more or less "powerful" than having a group of 2. ^random speculation On September 19 2010 14:38 Divinek wrote: i have no idea why he's on our team tbh, im assuming it has something to do with the power of greyskull. Divinek immediately jumps on this, and does his laugh it off defense. Also another defense On September 20 2010 01:57 Pandain wrote: In addition, who do we lynch today? Well, i'm starting to think we should lynch one of South, Divinek, or Bumatlarge. Lynching one will confirm the two others, helping us in future scum hunting and decision. If mafia try to take these confirmed out, its alright, because they aren't exactly "vets" and it'll take two turns for mafia to finish them off. However, I sort of doubt they'll go for them as they'll probably go for the vets themselves. I immediately shot that idea down On September 20 2010 01:59 LSB wrote: Just FYI, we lynch a team, rather than just one person. And I felt that conversation should have ended right there. To my surprise, Divinek suddenly posts On September 20 2010 05:49 Divinek wrote: what do you mean lynching one of us will confirm us lol? if you kill one person of a team im pretty sure alignment doesnt flip, if that's even what you're getting at because you don't make it clear, that'd be pretty ridiculous. I've got my eye on you as always pandain! I can't find it in the rules, but that's how it's been in the past... Divinek should know that the whole team gets killed. He was lynched day two in the first TMM game. Obviously this idea has been destroyed already, since I pointed out that it wouldn’t work as per the rules, but why does Divinek suddenly try to offer a random explanation? I can only think that he is paranoid. Now, you might say that town defend themselves and this doesn’t mean anything. But these are the only posts that Divinek makes. He hasn’t contributed anything at all. That also mean that Divinek hasn’t been attempting to bandwagon people yet, but that’s because there has been no real attacking post yet. Divinek 2 + Show Spoiler + Later on Divinek makes this post On September 21 2010 05:38 Divinek wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 04:54 Infundibulum wrote: On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote: On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote: There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. What makes you think so? I'm curious, because Team 2 isn't on my radar right now for mafia. The way I see it - Bumatlarge seems drunk, Divinek made one post where he completely misunderstood how the game works, and SR talked about the merits of lynch vs no lynch. none of this says 'mafia' to me. yeah pandain had me confused into thinking players got lynched instead of teams lol. It's probably his scum jedi mind tricks at work. Bum wasn't drunk that's just his accent coming through in his posts. And SR has always been really good at posting really poorly. I would be all in favour of no lynching day 1, i mean why not use it on the day where we have the least information to go on? We'll still gain something as there will be a nk, or a medic protect to stop it or maybe even a DT check or something. But instead of throwing around wild allegations (which alot of people seem to be doing) i would much rather not kill an innocent today, which is what 95% to happen on day1? and go with a no lynch so ##vote no lynch This seems consistent, he’s defending himself. Also, since Team 2 is the team that’s getting the most votes right now, he can’t bandwagon that, he’ll go for the next best option, no lynch SouthRawrea + Show Spoiler + Okay, as town, he is pretty hard to understand. I played with him in PyP, and I just ignored his posts because they took to long to read through, and then I find that he’s making lots of assumptions At the same time though, he always put his two cents in. On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote: So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game. TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. Translation: It doesn’t matter what we do. This is very unhelpful. He makes a long post just to say nothing at all. On September 20 2010 10:04 SouthRawrea wrote: I'd like to echo Foolishness's point and say that my take on this game is that it's almost 100% scumhunting. There's a 50% shot at there being a cop and Korynne is unwilling to release any information not included in the OP. (Usually though, medics can't protect themselves) This limits any plans that we may have especially because we don't know the setup and we may not be able to investigate. Alternatively, Korynne may be setting up a game where we can look for clues with his/her posts to perhaps find the mafia or who's innocent. Also: EBWOP for my earlier post. I didn't realize that we couldn't NL. I overlooked Korynne's post. Anyhow, posting is good because we actually have nothing to work with other than posts at this point in time and possibly for the entire game. Again, he doesn’t say anything besides we should play as normal This isn’t putting his two cents in. This is simply just posting random stuff so it looks like he’s active On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote: So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr Okay, now he explains his posts, he’s saying that it’s impossible to make a plan. At the same time though, Incogs plan already declared that the existence of a cop is moot, all we need is the intimidation factor. Although I don’t agree with Incog’s plan, SouthRawrea’s post completely ignores this. At the same time, to try to prove that we can’t make a plan? That seems incredibly anti-town. A good plan wins the town games. To try persuade us that we can’t make a plan seems pretty scummy. Bumatlarge (Now seems pro town) + Show Spoiler + On September 21 2010 04:52 Ace wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote: On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote: There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them. If you're certain why aren't you trying hard to convince the rest of us they are scum? I wanted to see what Bum would write. He really hasn’t posted anything. And there’s no way to tell if he’s busy, or if he is lurking. Bum then posts a pretty pro town post On September 21 2010 08:20 bumatlarge wrote: I only had a minute to throw a post out, and I'd rather not stay quiet. Dont think I said much game-breaking stuff. Uh medic can protect themself? Would it be possible to get them to claim, since mafia really doesnt want to risk a mis-hit. If medic claims, RNG's protecting themselves or someone else we could get some info, and Im not really sure mafia would be willing to false-claim by chance we have a medic team, and then we are guaranteed a scum lynch by day 2. It kinda confirms them... no? But we should set up an exact tiem for them to roleclaim so we dont have some gimmicky 'oh i didnt see im medic lol. If no one says anything, we know we dont have a med, or they choose to keep quiet. Thoughts? I like the idea, basically we get a tree stump, that can vote, and someone is confirmed. That could clear up a lot of confusion. I don’t see a better role for the medic. As to answer Pandian, I’d like to see a confirmed townie more than a random chance of the medic protecting themselves. Math wise, the mafia has a 33% chance of hitting the medic during the two nights. And I don't count on stuff with less than half a chance of success | ||
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On September 21 2010 10:27 SouthRawrea wrote: I haven't said that plans are bad, just that I'm pretty sure that you really can't come up with a plan in this setup. What do you think about Bum's Medic idea? | ||
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Vote: No Lynch | ||
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The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had. As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is. I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea. I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves. The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic? There are two solutions: 1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic 2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not. Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit. | ||
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On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote: Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. The erroneous logic is in the "oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia. I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote + To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work. I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. | ||
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On September 22 2010 08:07 Pandain wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 07:59 LSB wrote: I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts. The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had. As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is. I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea. I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves. The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic? There are two solutions: 1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic 2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not. Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit. *feels selfish* It was my idea! Also, medic shouldn't claim. Why would we want to know who is medic? If he's going to be lynched, he can say so. Point 2 stands for both cases as well. Pandians idea then! Lets say we decides day2 we're trying to lynch InFun* InFun then claims that he is medic. What should we do? We now know that he is either medic or mafia, but should we follow through with the lynch, or not? Okay, let's break down the statistics (I'm assuming worst case scenario, all townie lynches) Claim Medic day 2: 1 nights of hidden protection We know someone that is town. Won't get lynched day 2. Forces the mafia to act if they want to claim medic. Claim Medic while being lynched: 1-2 nights of hidden protection We don't have anyone confirmed The moment a mafia gets accused, they will claim medic. The thing is, all a hidden medic is going to get is one more night of secrecy (during the worst case scenario). If we tell the medic to claim at the start of day 2. Mafia would be taking a big risk if they claimed. There is a 50% chance that the other medic will counterclaim, and then we find a mafia. Basically we get a confirmed townie A confirmed townie + less confusion during lynch time in case we hit a mafia > 1 more hidden night. + Show Spoiler + *He killed me in Mafia XXX so I'm going to use him in all my examples whenever someone dies/is scum | ||
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On September 22 2010 05:32 meeple wrote: Hold on... so we only get 2 lynches if we have a no lynch and no save scenario... balls to the walls... wait... Assuming we use our no lynch now and assuming that we have no medic saves... Today:_______________6 v 2 Tommorow____________5 v 2 Day 3:_______3 v 2______or_______4 v 1 Day 4:__town lose or 2 v 1____2 v 1 or town win Day 5: town win or town lose in both cases What am I missing... this gives a 50% chance of town win, based on total randomness and no saves. Agreed! That's why no lynch! (I swear I said this somewhere earlier) On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote: If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted. Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason. Anyways, I can see what you said that this is a possible scum maneuvers. But just remember, a lot of the scum maneuvers and town maneuvers are the same. (Ie both try not to get killed). However, they do have solid reasons for disagreeing. It's based on No lynching. I can understand them, if Pyrr votes for something, and I disagree with him, I'm not just going to go, "Whatever, I'll just follow Pyrr", I'm going to vote differently | ||
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On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote: No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this? 1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him. But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection. Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia. Ya I understand that the mafia would avoid him. But what if we are lynching someone, and then he suddenly claims that he's a medic? That's a big problem Anyways, when you think about it, the medic doesn't have that much nights with his ability (in the worst case senario). Of course, I could just be a pessimist with all my worst case senario thinking. Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans" I killed you because your plan was a mafia plan + Show Spoiler + On September 08 2010 07:40 LSB wrote: Reason 4) Pro mafia plans Show nested quote + On September 06 2010 02:50 Pandain wrote: So here's what I say we do: We make no accusations, whatsover. We let the NSVD work his way through checking everybody and then go with what he says. However, I'm thinking the NSVD should only claim like maybe after finding 2 scum(maybe even after checking everyone? n.n). Than we lynch. The only problem I can see is that if there is a mafia role involving killing someone. I already PMed Caller and mafia themselves do not have the ability to kill someone. But roles are hidden so they might very well have a role that can kill people at night. Either way, waiting at least until this day ends will both help stop an unnecessary death and let us wait until we see if the mafia have any really dangerous roles. This is an extremely mafia idea, Pandain wants us just to sit around waiting. This is always really bad relying soley on one person who may or may not be alive/in-existance. Pandain then changes his plan to "lets kill all inactives". Good idea, but most of the time, (ie 99% of the time) inactive are greens that don't feel the motivation to post because their role isn't 'cool'. It's good for the mafia as all the mafia has to do is stay active, and boom, a whole bunch of day kills go off ##Accusation: Pandian | ||
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On September 22 2010 09:18 Ace wrote: claim medic on Day 2? are you serious? Well, we are doing a no lynch Day 1, so there is no reason to claim Day 1 | ||
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On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote: On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote: Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic? In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night? Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do? Uh, what does your number mean? I got this Chance of Medic Save Medic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number) Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5% | ||
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If medic self protects, Mafia has a 1/6 chance of hitting the medic If Medic randomly selects, the Medic has a 1/8 chance of selecting the mafia target. If Medic randomly selects, but knows who the mafia is because he is super good at analysis. The Medic has a 1/6 chance of selecting the mafia target. Of course. If you weight the numbers, if Medic protects someone else, and saves them, that's two people confirmed. So a weighted percent of 25%, better I guess, but it seems like a double or nothing | ||
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On September 22 2010 10:16 Pandain wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 10:13 LSB wrote: On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote: On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote: On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote: Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic? In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night? Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do? Uh, what does your number mean? I got this Chance of Medic Save Medic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number) Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5% plus add the fact that the 2 mafia aren't going to be hit, which raises the 12.5% to (I think) 3/8. The medic doesn't know who the mafia isn't going to hit. The 1/8th accounts for if the Medic accidentally protects the mafia | ||
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Chances that medic will protect town(if he doesn't select himself) 5/8. 5/8 times 1/6(the chance mafia will hit a specific person). =1/8 5/8*1/6 =/= 1/8 5/8*1/6 = 5/48 Chance that the medic will protect town if he does random himself 6/8*1/6=1/8 Close enough! + Show Spoiler + Math is hard | ||
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On September 22 2010 10:29 Ace wrote: @LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%. I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit. Umm... That doesn't really make sense. Think of it this way. Imagine that there is 8 hats, one for each group The mafia places a kill one of the hats. The Medic has to guess where the kill is. The Medic has a 1/8th chance of guessing the kill. Now, if the medic isn't picking himself. There is a 5/6 chance the mafia wouldn't hit the medic There is a 1/7th chance that the medic would pick the right person. So 5/42 | ||
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What I do is equivelent, as you first figure out the chance medic will protect someone who gets hit, and then add in the fact that 2/8 won't get hit. The medic will have a 5/42 chance of the medic protecting someone who will get hit. What do you mean by add in that 2/8 won't be hit? That's pointless. It's not like the mafia is going to hit themselves | ||
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Medic Protecting self: Pro: higher chance of success Medic Protecting other Pro: could confirm two people. Medic, pick what you want. Take a larger or smaller risk? | ||
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Plans + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 14:47 Incognito wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Sorry, but "my plan" isn't easily exploitable as mafia. Yeah, the people not on the DT/Medic list will be considered "safe" from mafia POV, but I'd rather lose someone useless than someone useful. You're also missing the point. You're crying because you want me to address my "plan". Let me quote you again, Remember saying that? Thought so. Why is it that all of a sudden you want to refocus on my plan? Not going to fall for that one, buddy. You are falsly saying that I don't understand your plan, but in reality, you don't understand my problem with your plan. My problem with your plan is that the mafia can hide easily in it. What’s your response? 1) Start accusing me for not helping your plan 2) Start accusing me for not seeing why your plan is so “Pro town” 3) Make up a fake argument, say it's mine, and then claim that 'my' argument sucks 4) When I address 2+3, you start accusing me for talking about plans This is just getting silly and out of hand My Mentality: + Show Spoiler + Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> You are setting up a straw man here. Your "positions" are not meaningful. I am not accusing you for your lack of planning per se, but your lack of pro-town mindset. Your posts show apathy. Your posts say "hi I'm contributing" even though its clear you're not. You don't want to say anything about the Ace/BM lynch because you think they're town? Why didn't you say that? All you said was "Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight". Sorry, but I don't read "I think they're town" into that statement. You don't want to say anything about Foolishness/Rasta? Why? Instead of saying "these lynches are stupid", a townsperson would be trying to create discussion. In your case, you are just trying to kill it. So I should have tried to get BM lynched? Sorry, I don't push dumb things. Wrong again. I don't expect you to do either of those necessarily. I expect you to be pro-town and generate content, stimulate discussion, take a stand, and try to get the ball rolling. Trying to make plans fits into those categories. Sitting around doing nothing does not. Its not that "oh noes LSB isn't plan making thus he is mafia!", its that "LSB normally shows interest in moving the town forward and generating discussion, this game he's not, and thus he is mafia!". See the difference? Take interest in moving the town forward. You've done none of that this game unless under pressure. A lot of the day 1 accusations are baseless. We don't stop people from discussing them because we need stuff to talk about. Its fine if you try to cut off that discussion point, but only if you provide something else better. Frankly you are saying that I should bandwagon and accuse random people. I only accuse someone when I am absolutely sure. I was formulating an accusation, but people wanted it too early. As you can see, I ended up junking my accusations due to Bum's posts Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. No, you posted that you were certain Team 2 was mafia after I accused you. You may have honestly been waiting to see what Bum would do, but I can't prove that. Context tells me that its more plausible you just pulled that out of a hat to divert attention from yourself. I don't think any straight thinking townie is going to take your accusation at face value at this point. If you really want to look pro-town, start doing some straight up analysis. It has to be good analysis too. It has to be so good, that I'd rather lynch your target over you. Yeah, and once I start doing straight up analysis, your going to accuse me of taking your bait and being scum. Your going to call this your 'trap'. Good thing I put in this paragraph. Sure I’ll post analysis once I figure out something. But it’s not going to be because I’m trying to appease you. It’s because I’m going to try to take down the mafia. | ||
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On September 23 2010 21:01 SouthRawrea wrote: Show nested quote + On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: @ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit. I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC. vote team 6 Nah it has nothing to do with being passive. He comes out with a strong accusation against my team and then fails to followup or explain himself properly. I'm having quite a dilemna right now because I know very well that it's obviously considered anti-town behaviour to not post much at all and so I'm looking to the inactive teams. The problem I have is that I can't shake the feeling that the mafia may be an active team as well. I've got to go for now but I'm going to look over Team 6 when I get back from school. Just saying, that was not a strong accusation at all. I then retract myself mid post. If it was an accusation, I would have ended my post with a vote. On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote: Also the people that accused BM/Ace LSB + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote: Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote + This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote + The erroneous logic is in the "oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote + If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia. I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote + To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote + LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work. I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them. Don’t misquote me please Ace/BM is scum:You said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Miscellaneous On September 23 2010 14:02 BrownBear wrote: Well, mildly predictable. I was half-expecting team incog, to be honest, but this is also a solid hit by mafia. (im assuming they were vanilla town) So where to today? Yeah, ACE/BM was vanilla town (their names were in green) 2nd post coming soon | ||
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On September 23 2010 16:24 Incognito wrote: Show nested quote + On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote: odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Wow. This coming from you is hillarious. As if you're trying to downplay the fact that Ace was suspicious of you. Its not an "odd" choice for you to kill the team that agreed with the scumminess of YOUR team and Team 1. I'm 100% positive you didn't miss the part where Ace accused you. Notice how meeple says "Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town", while doing nothing to analyze them. Analyzing a dead person's post is easy. Meeple, however, doesn't want to do this because he has no interest in exposing the fact that Ace agreed with my reads. Meeple is not walking the talk. This should raise red flags for everyone. I don’t believe you gave him that much time. Meeple did do analysis of Ace, after your post. He possibly could be busy and needed to do something else. So I dug through the posts where Ace mentioned Yellowink and Meeple And I found a post + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote: At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch. The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us. No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? I don’t see an accusation of scummyness from Ace, all I see is say ridiculing YellowInk for being a “bad player” Ace said he was unsure on whether or not Incog was right. Ace didn’t agree with Incog yet. Killing Ace/BM is convenient if Team 1 and Team 7 are mafia. Mafia killing Ace/BM is equal to killing a less vocal and aggressive version of me/Infundibulum. It eliminates the only Team who agreed with me that Team 1 and 7 are scum right now. Which means I lose a supporter and need to work even harder to try to accomplish my goals. I think everyone would agree that I would be more likely to receive a medic prot than Ace. I'm guessing mafia took this into consideration and decided it was easier and safer to effectively cripple my steamrolling machine by sniping the quieter supporter. Now I have to find yet another vote to help me get them lynched. Real convenient, huh? Team 7 is mafia. Analysis coming up in a few. Again, you assume that Ace agreed with you. What Ace said is that either 1) Incog is good at finding mafia. Or 2) Incog is mafia and good at killing townies, by painting them as scum from a 'slipup' On September 23 2010 18:52 Incognito wrote: A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote: This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia. [Vote]Team 7 Main Point: 1) Pyrr slipped up. He defended someone out of the blue when there was no direct attack involved. He defended someone who voted for him. 2) Team 1 is mafia 3) Team 7 is mafia Um that’s not a defense. That’s a possible explanation. Pyrr explained it quite well + Show Spoiler + On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote: totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow baa baaa ##vote team 7 Bandwagoning? | ||
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Anyways I haven't played with Meeple before, so I can't say much, but I went through this game http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=128918 Meeple was townie, and he wasn't a big contributor and didn't make much (if any) stands | ||
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On September 25 2010 05:06 Pandain wrote: Other People: I am with those who think LSB and Pyrr are mafia, and I find him a much better, and safer choice to vote for. In addition, I'd like to point something out from LSB: Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 10:14 LSB wrote: Overview: The entire Divinek/Southrawrea/Bumatalarge team was incredibly unhelpful. This isn’t like Zeks, who just lurks all the time. Divinek, Southrawrea, and Bumatalarge usually at least make the effort to help. It’s strange why none of them are doing that right now. Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful. Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action". This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him. NOTE THE BOLDED SECTION. Now, what he's saying here is that he would have voted for Bum except for the post Bum wrote after a post LSB made: Bum posted the 2nd post before I released my Analysis o.o Thats why in my Analysis, I explicitly state that I am unsure if their team is mafia anymore. Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action". That's why I did not vote for them HOW MANY TIMES Do I have to say that I won't vote for people that I am not completely sure that they are mafia? Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 04:16 LSB wrote: Okay, I believe it is essential to use the No Lynch. The No Lynch will give the Mafia another kill. But at the same time, it gives us another DT check, it gives us another Medic protection. (Assuming they exist). And it won’t actually shorten lylo date. With or without No lynch, we have 2 mislynchs till we lose. It doesn’t change I’m not saying we have to use it now. I’m just saying, if we don’t use it today, we should use it tomorrow. That way we can take advantage of the No-Lynch benefits. So, he was going to vote for Team 2 even after this, if not for a post? Wtf is this? You're fadoodling my mind here. I said that it is in our advantage to use a no-lynch as either way (worst case scenario), we have only two lynches You are wrong on both counts | ||
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On September 24 2010 17:10 Incognito wrote: Relevant section of Ace's post here: Show nested quote + The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact. You ignored the second half of the sentence. or he's just good at picking off easy townies. I am seriously having doubts on whether or not you are town. What you are doing is taking small posts, and blowing them out of proportion. I would understand if this is RL mafia, Freudian slips apply, but in online mafia, people are able to write up their posts and edit them before they post them. Show nested quote + On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote: totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow baa baaa ##vote team 7 Bandwagoning? As a veiled attack on Team 2 this is atrocious. Gonna accuse anyone who votes for your scumbuddy as bandwagoning? The evidence is pretty clear at this point. Uhh… Again, you like to ignore my previous posts in order to further your own point. I have stated that I will keep an eye out if Divinek starts to bandwagon. Guess what? He did. On September 24 2010 18:29 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Summary LSB acting shady not really contributing gets EXTREMELY defensive about an accusation then counter accuses someone, doesn't get behind the lynch of a very likely mafia candidate. Partner also acts suspicious (will get into in a minute) Verdict=mafia I’ll just quote this paragraph. Your entire ‘accusation’ was just a rehash of things I’ve addressed with Incog. Things like my supposed neutrality are brought up, and I have already addressed it. I would understand if you refuted my defense. But you didn’t do anything. You just pointed out someone else’s idea and slapped a vote on me. I can see why Pyrr wants to lynch you. And I’ll go with his judgment ##Vote: Team 6 BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD On September 24 2010 18:50 Incognito wrote: Show nested quote + That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red... When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6. Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1. I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts: Show nested quote + On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote: I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people. There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues. flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez... Show nested quote + On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote: Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time. I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan... His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on. I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects... Show nested quote + On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote: I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. Show nested quote + On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote: Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too... I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving Show nested quote + On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote: I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects. Show nested quote + On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote: Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt... Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away. I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig... Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity... Lastly, Show nested quote + On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote: Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler + LUDWIG The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red... meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6. kk I'll read through meeples posts with you. 1. No stand 2. No stand 3. No stand 4. No stand 5. No stand 6. Says that he thinks Ludwig and Radfield are mafia. There isn't that much anlysis 7. I agree! Very usefull contribution! After reading through all of that I don't see how you are still able to accuse meeple of being mafia. Meeple doesn't really commit to much. Understandable, not everyone wants to play this game 24/7. You point to his contribution (#7), and I agree. Thats great thinking by meeple. But you can't suddenly generalize everything off of it. | ||
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On September 25 2010 06:24 Pandain wrote: Show nested quote + On September 25 2010 05:55 LSB wrote: There is a difference between "We should use the no lynch sometime." And a "We should not lynch someone today" o.o Which is what I pointed out Me saying we should use the no lynch sometime is a statement of fact. I said that I notice a tool I can use. How is that a position on the lynch for the day? | ||
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On September 25 2010 06:58 Foolishness wrote: Is there anything in particular that makes you all want to kill team 6 over anyone else? I'm alright not killing team 7 at the moment, but you all seem to be voting for team 6 as a "well we need a team that's not team 7, okay let's go with 6" instead of thinking they're actually mafia. =I'm going to vote with Pyrr, this way we can make our votes count more. Of course, I have my own opinion too, and it supports pyrr's right now On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: @ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit. I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC. vote team 6 I can't really tell about the BC thing, I'll take Pyrr's word on it. But I've heard that he is a a really good player and it is really strange why he wouldn't be doing much. On the other hand, RoL Has been making really mafia ish posts. He seems somewhat active, but when we look at his long posts, they are mainly restatements of what other people has said. RoL is band-wagoning a lot of stuff. Well he didn't bandwagon me day 1, but that would be obvious as something was wrong with that bandwagon. Me flipping green would be seriously detrimental to the people who started my lynch. But now as we enter day two, RoL takes an easy path and Picks on Team 7, and us Team 1. Something that everyone else has done. In addition, he just does things that other people has done before. He makes 'analysis' but all he did was go through and reword Incog's attacks | ||
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1) Incog has good reason to kill Ace Look at this post On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote: Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Ace is initially saying that he suspects the same people as Incognito. However, at the same time, Ace notes that this is a really easy way to pick off townies. Incog has been taking little posts, and blowing them out of proportion. In fact, when I confront Incognito about this, he just brushes it off, and ignores it. On September 24 2010 17:10 Incognito wrote: Relevant section of Ace's post here: Show nested quote + The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact. Notice that Incognito doesn’t even address this fact. When I later pressure him he still tries to shift the focus. Incog has good reason to off Ace. Ace was the only one suspicious of his activities at that time. 2) Incog’s attack on me was engineered to persuade people who did not play with me in recent games First of all, look at Incog’s attack of me. He pulls out my rookie game, and then says that I am the planner in the group. Of course, if you’ve played with me, you’d know that I am an extremely cautious player. Indeed. Look at the final vote count for day 1 against me bumatlarge Team 2 Divinek Team 2 Infundibulum: Team 8 YellowInk SouthRawrea Team 2 The only person who wasn’t on team 2 (the team I was suspicious of), and team 8. (Incog’s team) was YellowInk, and YellowInk has never played with me before. I actually find it quite strange that Team 2 seems to follow Team 8 around a lot 3) Incog Attacks Team 7 because they are the easier target. Here is Incog’s initial attack of Team 7 On September 23 2010 18:52 Incognito wrote: A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote: This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia. First of all, Pyrr did not defend YellowInk. He merely tried to find an explanation for YellowInk’s actions. Secondly, this is completely an completely illigit accusation. Incog through a whole bunch of dirt on Me and Pyrr day one, and I find it really strange that he suffered a bout of ADHD, and decided to attack team 7 instead. His basic premise was that I was supposedly mafia (which was wrong in the first place), and in turn, Team 7 must be mafia. I believe the reason that he switched targets was that he thought that he couldn’t kill me, so hit picked someone that Foolishness would agreed on for a kill. Let’s look at the voting stats Incognito Team 8 Divinek Team 2 Foolishness Team 3 RebirthOfLeGenD Team 6 rastaban Team 3 bumatlarge Team 2 BloodyC0bbler Team 6 In reality, the only team who truly agreed with Incog was team 3, that’s because Incog chose the right person to attack. Team 8 / Team 2 have been voting together. Team 6 voted so that they could live 4) Killing Pandian/BB On September 26 2010 10:51 Incognito wrote: Oops [Vote]Team 3 Wut? It looks like he’s trying to act like that he’s given up. The defeated townie act. On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote: Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times. Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T Medic claim. So Incog is either red or Medic. I don’t know why Incog would do this. Here’s a possible explanation. Maybe Incog thought Pandian and BB was medic. I’ll go through their posts and see if anything there might indicate that they looked like a blue role. After finding out that Pandian/BB was that not the medic, he probably assumed that there was no medic. In a normal 7 person game, there is a 50% chance of a medic. Decent odds, and Incog would probably outargue a counterclaim This is an 8 person game, so it’s even harder for the mafia. Maybe Incog assumed that Korr wouldn’t put a medic because the odds were even lower. But why would Incog pull such a desperate maneuver? Well, it’s Lylo. All Incog has to do is make sure that he doesn’t get killed and his scum buddy doesn’t get killed, and they win. ##Vote:Team 8 | ||
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United States5171 Posts
On September 26 2010 11:02 Foolishness wrote: Show nested quote + On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote: Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times. Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T You're guessing wrong again with your vote there by the way. Consider a few things from my perspective (that I'm green). You wanted to kill team 1. Team 1 voted to kill team 6 yesterday, and team 1 originally voted to kill team 2 the first day (before moving to No Lynch). After reviewing the votes and suspicions it doesn't seem to make much sense for any of the mafia to have voted for their teammate. Assuming that nobody is linked to team 1 (except for rastaban and I). Your teammate revealed that you were either red or blue. Apparently you're claiming blue now. I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt for now and believe your claim, although I'm sure other people are going to have something to say about it. Thus that leaves teams 2 and 6 as mafia. Vote: team 6 Although Team 6 is on my list of mafia. Holes are leaking through BloodlyCobbler has a good excuse for being inactive On September 25 2010 07:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote: To start with, I apologize for my insane inactivity this game. Have spent a fair amount of my mornings/afternoons job hunting, then out with friends I haven't seen for months at night. Few peoples birthdays, as well as a family in the hospital leads to me being insanely busy (much more so than I was anticipating). I have managed to garner time and look over the debates on today's lynch and some of the arguments are fairly convincing so I shall trust you guys this once as I won't have the time to go more carefully into things till tomorrow at the earliest. As such to avoid being modkilled. Vote team 7 I am am leaning twordes mafia for RebirthOfLeGenD, but I am absolutely sure that Incog is mafia. And I'd like to lynch the person that I feel is the most scummy first. | ||
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Ace would be a horrible lynch by me. He was the one who noticed that there was something fishy in the bandwagon. And if I was mafia, I'd kill Incog to give myself some breathing room. Ace's death only benifits Incog 2) Great, so a "I forgot how LSB played" defense 3) So are you saying that you lynched team seven even though you thought that I was town? That is increadibly dumb. Your basic argument boils down to "Team 1 is mafia so Team 7 is mafia", and you guys doubt yourself. Why did you still press for the lynch? That would be dumb. Your obviously making up stuff now, trying any excuse that would work And I'm not going to flat out switch my attack to team two. Team two has been following around Incog for some strange reason. The Difference Between Me and You is that I don't go for the easy targets. I go for the targets that are scum 4) You say that my attack on you is speculation, but all you respond is more speculation. You start speculating on what would the mafia do. (Also responds to this) + Show Spoiler + I was gonna vote Team 1 instead of Team 6, since I'd rather lynch on some substance than pure inactivity, but there's a medic counterclaim. I know that's a lie obviously. And if you compare my posting to RoL's posting, it's clear who's scum here. I have pretty much been the driving force behind this game. Without me town has little to no information. There's no incentive for me to be this aggressive in a game where mafia can sit back and let the town rot. I've posted the most this game. My analysis showed the most dedication to the game out of everyone. As mafia it would have been so easy for me to agree with everyone and say we need more information and complain about the lack of information while providing none myself. Instead, I took a stand and attempted to lead the town when nobody was willing to take that job. Yes, its true that I was wrong on the last lynch. But every townie is going to be wrong at some point. Mislynching (once) doesn't make me automafia. And one person's vote doesn't make a lynch. Sure, if this was a larger game, it would seem suspicious if we go after someone who misses a lynch. But this is Micro Mafia. All mafia has to go is get two mislynches and they win. From the get go, we see that Incog has targeted two townies, me and team 7. If we let Incog complete his task, they win. Activity doesn't mean anything. All it means is that someone likes playing mafia a bit more than the others. On the other hand, pushing for two lynchs, and I know both of us are town, is extremely suspicious. There is no "sudden" switch to Team 7. I pointed out Team 7 midway through day 1, and I also switched votes to Team 7 before the deadline on day 1. I've been suspicious of Team 7 almost from the beginning of this game. Why did I switch to Team 7? On day 1, Foolishness said he wasn't sold on Team 1, but would gladly lynch Team 7. Since I was confident that they both were mafia, I gladly switched to Team 7 if it meant something would get done. Given my link between Team 1 and Team 7, I figured Team 1 == Team 7 in terms of which one to lynch. Nothing suspicious about a lynch I supported from half a day prior. Exactly, now you admit to my accusation. You switch to team 7 because it’s the easier, fatter target, rather than the one you believe in. | ||
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Either that or there is a dumb townie. This is by far the Most important development in the game On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote: Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times. Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T Vrs On September 26 2010 14:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Show nested quote + On September 26 2010 10:53 Incognito wrote: Its pretty sad I guessed wrong both times. Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T lol seriously? This is ballsy. Alright guys shits on the line now anyway. I am the medic and I have been self protecting every night. So we really have to figure out which person is probably the medic. On September 26 2010 15:28 Infundibulum wrote: 3. Honestly though i'm surprised you counter claimed medic. There was no need for you to play that card so quickly. Generally the mafia can wait and say that the lack of a counterclaim indicates that the claimer is lying. For example, you could have said "Incog is mafia and trying to squirm away from inevitable lynch by claiming medic!", all without claiming yourself. But by counterclaiming you pretty much play out your whole hand. This is a weird defense. Infun is saying that the medic should be like “Oh look there is no counterclaim, obviously infun is medic!” That’s just dumb. The “Pointing out there is no counterclaim” is an incredibly stupid argument for a medic to rely on when straight out counterclaim is so much more stronger. This convinces me that Infun is mafia Fun Fact™ for those who can't decide who's telling the truth: why do you think it was me who asked Korynne if the medic/protected person gets a PM notification? Don't you think that RoL, masquerading as the eager medic, would have wanted to know this important information? Now that Infun pointed this out, I don’t think trying to read if Team 8 is medic is a good idea. Team 8 has probably been planning this claim for a while, planting information for a future defence. + Show Spoiler + Anyone else wana claim medic? | ||
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I agree with the duke it out part. But I'm sticking to my vote | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
On September 27 2010 10:17 Divinek wrote: yay no need for me to have to make a long post however im confused, it's obviously between team 6/8 at this point and one is certainly mafia but if incognito team was medic why the fuck wouldnt he protect himself? with how active and pro town incognito was trying to be you'd think surely they would want to keep themselves alive/think they're likely to be a target. Or did they think that there was some levelling going on where obviously he'd be the most natural target so mafia might think he was the most natural target for med prot so not hit him? nahhh that doesn't really pan out well. obviously my team isnt mafia lol or we could just stack on whichever one of you two we knew was town and get it over with. This is hurting my brain cause team IN has been active enough to get a read off of then you have the other team where the other member is totally AWOL and RoL is well he's him. anyways ##vote team 8 i like bum voting for team 1 lol Immediately I think something was wrong about my lynch. I wasn't expecting a real bandwagon from happening. Although I still think team 8 is mafia. It's kind of strange when team 6 suddenly shows up. I ended up choosing the lesser of two evils But then Team 2 also shows up. And it isn't just team 2, it's Divinek. Divinek I've been looking for him jumping on bandwagons and he does this. Of course, he changes it On September 27 2010 11:23 Divinek wrote: actually you know what after reading through everyone's reasons for voting for who they did i've convinced myself that the likely combination for me is team1/team6 so ##unvote ##vote team6 I can't really tell if Incog is with you or not. It all could be WIFOM, but Divinek doesn't really expain himself with any analysis, just just says that everyone's reasons for voting. When we look at the reasons for voting Team 1: Team 8 is probably mafia Team 3: Team 6 defends themselves well. It kindof is off topic On September 27 2010 13:16 Divinek wrote: sweet team 1 really is mafia look at that lol, takes vote off team 8 after clearly saying the only options right now are team 6/8 and when realizing team 6 is about to die tries this shit please Is Divinek trying to set up tomorrows lynch? That probably means that Team 6 is mafia, since Divinek is expecting them to flip red. Even if we hit mafia, tomorrow will still be LYLO. Remember: Mafia can easily win by sacrificing someone today and killing the person who supported the person they sacrificed tomorrow Also, ROL finally came back to duke it out with incog. BC hasn't showed up for some reason, even for a vote. On September 27 2010 02:47 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: All of a sudden you switch to the view that I am inactive? I clearly haven't been inactive. As for your medic "protects" they seem retarded to me, at least your second choice. Your supposed night one choice is between you and Ace/BM and you choice yourself. I could actually believe that protection since I think it was 50/50 based on usefulness of the individual and obviously you would choose yourself on the basis of self interest. However I can't see how the fuck you can run with same train of thought and decide to pick team 2 to protect over team 5. When we look at there activeness and who posts what team 5 posts way more. If you look at the end pandain posts analysis on the two most suspect teams. Teams 1 and teams 7 which were really well done. Team 2 did nothing of substance yesterday, yet you claim you hastily protected them? That makes no sense. As far as protecting myself goes, it was argued all over day one the usefulness of the medic and I even was speculating that it wasn't in the game to divert attention from the role. But the general consensus was an immortal medic who is self protecting is a good idea. Plus you can't always count on the mafia to hit in the way you expect, they could be blue hunting and I was acting a little blue. Moderately active posting + Blue role speculation + secondary analysis to stay out of limelight. If they were decent players I feel I would of been a good target, especially if they are trying to avoid obvious protections like you and ace/bm day one and teams 2 and 5 on day two. As another side note, I have done this before and self protected, because it makes sense. and yeah foolishness I would really like you to elaborate on that. I don't see why you wouldn't vote for either team 8 or team 6 right now. RoL clearly is on the defensive. He feels the need more to defend himself than attack team 8. In fact he hasn't had much attacks on team 8 at all. He seems to only have relyed on my post. I'm just going to go for the safe choice then. Besides the two medic claimers, there are three teams, Team 1, Team 2, Team 3. I don't think Team 3 is mafia, so that leaves team two Vote: Team 2 | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
On September 28 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote: Vote for team 6 dude. If the town has their votes spread out the mafia will just change last minute and auto win. It's too late to lynch someone else, either vote team 6 or give mafia auto win. Don't worry, I'm watching. As always. | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
On September 28 2010 09:31 Divinek wrote: it's nice to see lsb's reads on me are just as bad as ever Penalty mafia: I fingered you as mafia RAM: I fingered you as anti town. | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
On September 28 2010 10:25 Foolishness wrote: Team 6 and 8 both mafia lol That would be genius. Abit unlikely | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
I just don't get why Bum/SR is discussing where to hit for the night. Are they trying to influence the medic save? | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
But suggesting that the mafia won't shoot anyone? Thats quiet weird. I can't see any reason why this would be used. Team two would kill Team 3, Team 3 would kill 2. Unless Incog is mafia, but as always, the possibility of that is 0% | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
Team 6 claiming medic was to good to be true. I was so sure that Incog was scum, that I pushed away my past doubts about team 6. Incog is obviously townie now. Although he has been wrong before about me and YI, his post makes a lot of sense. Foolishness on the other hand has these posts yesterday On September 26 2010 15:00 Foolishness wrote: How about we just let bygones be bygones and all vote for team 2 eh? On September 27 2010 00:36 Foolishness wrote: Okay so let's see. One of team 6 and 8 is mafia. Team 8 wanted to kill team 1 the other day. Team 1 voted to kill team 6 yesterday (also made some analysis). I still don't think it's probable that the mafia would be voting for each other or posting analysis against each other at that stage of the game (why go through the effort when the town was misguided anyways?) This makes it unlikely that team 1 is mafia since they have a very weak connection to team 6 and team 8. Thus it seems that team 2 is probably the other mafia team, with either 6 or 8. Of course this is all from my perspective (assuming I'm green). A big part of me feels like we should just kill team 2 now and let team 6 and team 8 duke it out over who's medic (the more time they have to argue the more obvious the real medic will become). Notice that right now there is a 50% chance that his scum buddy will die, he has the taste of victory in his mouth and tries to make it 100% chance. He does indeed vote to kill team 6, but he probably anticipated that I would switch my vote if something seemed fishy Although I haven't suspected them at all (Thank you Incog for bringing that to light). I'm going to think about this for a bit before voting. I'm now just really wary of the Team1/Team2 fight that was going to happen today, and it seems kindof influenced | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
Put my position as Neutral for now | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
In reality, everyone has an incentive to kill team 8. They are the medic, and as long as the medic is a alive, the mafia is going to have a harder time getting what they want done. In addition, Incog has been a pretty vocal townie. That's two strikes against him. Even though Incog did say he was pushing for my lynch, Incog in this game is known for switching his vote around. Day 2 from 1 to 7, Day 3 from 3 to 6. That leaves team 2 as much as a candidate as team 3. Both team 2 and team 3 was willing to off Team 6 yesterday. But Team 2 did it only after trying to off Incog / divert the vote onto me. Straightforward, team 2 fit the role of mafia yesterday. That's why I'm going to vote for them ##Vote Team 2 | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
Seems like less than 3 hours left | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 10 2010 01:39 Korynne wrote: Voting rules: 5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first is lynched over the other person. It looks like if it does come to a tie, the team that camps the day post will win. | ||
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United States5171 Posts
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United States5171 Posts
On October 02 2010 10:16 Incognito wrote: Show nested quote + On October 02 2010 10:15 LSB wrote: Question: Can Mafia Withhold their night kill? No you can't, mafia. What does korr say... o.o | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
We arn't mafia Foolishness isn't mafia That leaves team 8. Incog Vote Team 8 Incog have been holding off so that he can rest on his medic claim, they obviously double claimed | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
The double medic claim idea, however absurb, is actually a possibility, and I'm more willing to accept that than you being mafia. It actually makes a lot of sense Incog claims medic, I attack incog. Incog feels that he's in danger, so he gets his scumbuddy to claim medic and die for him. Now Incog is all 'confirmed and stuff', and easily wins the game | ||
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United States5171 Posts
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United States5171 Posts
On October 03 2010 06:42 Foolishness wrote: Korynne said mafia cannot no hit correct? She hasn't responded yet. And obviously they can no hit, or else people would be dead. I'm pretty sure that Deconduo did it in Caller's RAM game | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
I guess if Korynne verifies it nows, it kind of kills any chances Incog has of winning. So maybe that's why she's keeping quiet But what if your mafia? That means that you must have withheld your hit for two days straight, or Incog blocked your hits. You wouldn't have withheld the hits. You have no incentive to. On the other than, Incog needs to withhold the hits as 1) He wants to seem like the medic, and 2) now if he doesn't withhold the hit, he looses. If Incog blocked your hits, that means that he wouldn't support you, because he "protected" you last night. | ||
LSB
United States5171 Posts
On October 03 2010 08:04 Korynne wrote: Show nested quote + On October 02 2010 10:15 LSB wrote: Question: Can Mafia Withhold their night kill? No. Awww Korr GG guys then | ||
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