EPTOn September 21 2010 07:06 Bill Murray wrote:
he is a good player, but even good players will have trouble pulling traction in a game like this. This is a very high-level game.
he is a good player, but even good players will have trouble pulling traction in a game like this. This is a very high-level game.
Truth. This game is pretty over my head so far, and I consider myself at least an average player. Ah well, time to try to step it up a bit.
On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot.
I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.
day 1 lynching scum:
6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)
if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.
this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot.
Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure.
On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote:
Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing
And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time:
Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25%
Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0%
This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects.
So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going.
Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument.
Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing
And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time:
Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25%
Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0%
This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects.
So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going.
Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument.
I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!)
I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation.
On September 21 2010 06:08 Ace wrote:
I've never eaten at P.F. Chang's but I've heard it's good. Wouldn't mind some new delicacies in town over this scummy food they serve now.
I've never eaten at P.F. Chang's but I've heard it's good. Wouldn't mind some new delicacies in town over this scummy food they serve now.
It's overrated, honestly
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Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia.
Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim?
Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion.
![[image loading]](http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/6758/day1ya.jpg)
