| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On September 21 2010 05:33 Bill Murray wrote: damn ace i made a huge post that you just summarized in like 4 lines lol Well post something else because this town is boring. I'm about to move. | ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote: So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. @meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia. I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1. day 1 lynching scum: 6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today. this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. ##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB ##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek | ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
On September 21 2010 05:56 Ace wrote: Well post something else because this town is boring. I'm about to move. I'm on top of it, broski  Hopefully this clarifies some things. You won't have to move when we kill these scum off. We will restore our lakes to their pristine conditions, and will take control of their mafia-owned warehouse. I was thinkin about makin it into a P.F. Chang's or Bennigan's or somethin'. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Pandain
United States12989 Posts
My friends, we need not kill someone today. I know that recent events have shown a horrific mafia insurrection to have taken place in our peaceful town, but if will pray listen to me I will show you that violence should not be taken first. An estimated 2 out of the 8 factions have aligned themselves with these mafia fellows, and while we have routed out the source, their infection lives on. If we decide to eat a faction, then there is a 75% chance that we will be wrong if we guess randomly. If we devour a town faction, then our DTS will become useless. For you see, in the rare chance that our Panda Inspectors find one of the traitorous factions, a mafia can simply fake claim that they themselves are the dts. Then we will be at a "word-against word" dillema, with a 50% chance of losing the game right there. In fact, the Evil Panda Poachers could claim first they had found mafia, and we would literally be at a crossroads. However, if we lay down our arms and let the day pass, we allow our Panda Inspectors to investigate freely, medics to go unharmed, and in the future have one less potential suspect(even though there is a terrible cost for that.) Then in the situation a "word against word" situation arises, we can eat one of them, drink his memory and find out whether he was good or not. My fellow Pandas, don't you see? Pandas are supposed to be peaceful! And I, Pandain the Panda, urge you to not eat someone today. | ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
We need to save our no lynch for potential MyLo situations like 4v2 (VERY POSSIBLE) or 3v1 | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. | ||
|
Pandain
United States12989 Posts
On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote: Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. The only reason we should lynch someone is if someone brings a convincing accusation of someone, and we feel he has a high chance of being mafia, rather than just lynching like we normally do on day 1. It seems to me day 1 lynches are usually wrong, and while you are superb and this game Ace, if that happens we will go to the situation where we will only have our guts to tell us something. In addition, we'd have to either 1)Lynch someone again, with 60% chance of hitting town, with no information to help us. 2) DT finds something, mafia counter claims, we're stuck at word against word. 3)Mafia just decide to fake claim anyway, will lead to word against word. However if we don't lynch today then we won't have to worry about that situation, we'll have more of a chance of killing mafia, and we'll be able to make the deciding choice to end the game, not mafia(meaning we'll have the most information at the end.) A problem I do see with not lynching is that in the case of no DT(think there's 50% chance of that) it will be absolutely worthless in its benefits to the Panda Inspector. Therefore, not lynching is not the definitive thing to do yet, just what I would favor unless I see a convincing argument. I'll reread the accusations and make up my mind. | ||
|
YellowInk
United States578 Posts
I am satisfied with Incognito's further discussions. I would like to hear more from BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD. BC has not had much to say, and I don't feel RoL has contributed very effectively. | ||
|
Pandain
United States12989 Posts
On September 21 2010 06:41 YellowInk wrote: So there has been some good discussion occurring. As is typical, there are plenty of flaws in arguments. The key here is to figure out where people are trying to be productive (granted, a difficult task on day 1) and where people are trying to look like they're being productive or otherwise staying out of the line of fire. I am satisfied with Incognito's further discussions. I would like to hear more from BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD. BC has not had much to say, and I don't feel RoL has contributed very effectively. And how about you, YellowInk? You haven't contributed much either, yet I hear you are quite adept at this game. | ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
| ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
There are to be NO private messages this game for most roles. Roles that may PM will be told to them. | ||
|
BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On September 21 2010 07:06 Bill Murray wrote: he is a good player, but even good players will have trouble pulling traction in a game like this. This is a very high-level game. Truth. This game is pretty over my head so far, and I consider myself at least an average player. Ah well, time to try to step it up a bit. On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote: I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1. day 1 lynching scum: 6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today. this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote: Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. On September 21 2010 06:08 Ace wrote: I've never eaten at P.F. Chang's but I've heard it's good. Wouldn't mind some new delicacies in town over this scummy food they serve now. It's overrated, honestly  ---- Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia. Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim? Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion. | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
Its ok, Ace is your partner, he is suppose to PM you. + Show Spoiler + j/k I assume it was some one else PMing you I think it is a good point that we can use the no lynch tomorrow to get the extra time if today's fails. Now I think this is slightly worse since today's lynch would be less informed. What this means is that we should proceed with a lynch today, and then shortly before the deadline review all players and see if the leading group is scummy enough. It is still a shot in the dark we no lynch, if the evidence is good we lynch and then no-lynch tomorrow if we were wrong. | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
Also there is only a 25% chance of us having both but a 50% chance of having a DT which makes the no lynch even better | ||
|
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Uh medic can protect themself? Would it be possible to get them to claim, since mafia really doesnt want to risk a mis-hit. If medic claims, RNG's protecting themselves or someone else we could get some info, and Im not really sure mafia would be willing to false-claim by chance we have a medic team, and then we are guaranteed a scum lynch by day 2. It kinda confirms them... no? But we should set up an exact tiem for them to roleclaim so we dont have some gimmicky 'oh i didnt see im medic lol. If no one says anything, we know we dont have a med, or they choose to keep quiet. Thoughts? | ||
|
Pandain
United States12989 Posts
On September 21 2010 08:20 bumatlarge wrote: I only had a minute to throw a post out, and I'd rather not stay quiet. Dont think I said much game-breaking stuff. Uh medic can protect themself? Would it be possible to get them to claim, since mafia really doesnt want to risk a mis-hit. If medic claims, RNG's protecting themselves or someone else we could get some info, and Im not really sure mafia would be willing to false-claim by chance we have a medic team, and then we are guaranteed a scum lynch by day 2. It kinda confirms them... no? But we should set up an exact tiem for them to roleclaim so we dont have some gimmicky 'oh i didnt see im medic lol. If no one says anything, we know we dont have a med, or they choose to keep quiet. Thoughts? Medic should NOT claim. What the medic should do is protect himself, but remain hidden. If the medic claims, then mafia will have to strike in the dark, and have a chance that they will hit someone whos protected. In addition, a claimed medic will really have no use, as there are no pms(so we can't rally around them for example.) Furthormore, mafia might as well claim medic if all they have to do is protect themselves since it might gain them some brownie points(+ add the fact that town wouldn't want to lynch a medic), so it would be win win for mafia(unless a medic counter claimed.) In addition, protecting himself AND revealing himself will mean that mafia will simply know not to hit that person, and anyone else they hit will be a confirmed hit. So it's simply not good for town. By protecting himself, however, medic will protect a confirmed townie, medic in addition, while negating the risk of protecting a red which might happen if they didn't protect themselves. | ||
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
BM says we need to keep our No lynch incase we get into a 3v1 situation. I can understand that, but that scenario isn't for certain. And actually, barring any medic saves, if we no lynch today that situation is not possible to happen. 5v2 after night's over. Mislynch goes to 4v2. 3v2 after night's over. Lynch a mafia (otherwise game over) brings it to 3v1, then to 2v1 the next day. Other way is if we lynch right tomorrow we're at 5v1. 4v1 after night's over. Mislynch goes to 3v1, then 2v1 once night's over. So there's no need to save it in case we get into a 3v1 scenario. Just use the no lynch now, and we're going to avoid a 3v1 unless there's a medic save along the way. If someone has said that we should lynch today and no lynch tomorrow, the outcome will still be the same in the long run. Only difference is that we no lynch today giving us more time to talk and night actions to help us with our lynch. It doesn't make sense to lynch today and not lynch tomorrow. Vote: No Lynch | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote: Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing Sorry to be thick here, but can you specify which conditions need to be met? And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I really want to elaborate on no lynching since we only have one. I really don't like hinging off of blue roles so simply saying "It gives our DTs an extra check" isn't an entirely valid reason. I think if we could 100% say there is a DT then having a no lynch would be justified simply on that merit alone, but we can't. This is also assuming you have a competent DT. Now for the long term benefits of no lynching now. The way mafia works is the first day always sucks and has the least information, as the game progresses we obviously get more and more information. The reason I mention this is because I saw a couple of people saying "we should save it for 4v2 or 3v1 scenarios" and while that is true we can look at the grand scheme of things as well. If it ever gets to that point we are either going to be 2 or 3 days any person who considers themselves decent at mafia should be comfortable enough to figure out exactly who is mafia, and if you couldn't you were probably fucked anyway. So knowing that we will have plenty of more information tomorrow now seems like the best time to use our single no lynch because IF we have blues it gives them more time to be useful, and even if we don't it allows us more time to gather information, instead of waiting until a 4:2 or 3:1 scenario. so Vote: No Lynch and now I should go back and try to analyze posts even though I don't think we have much to work with yet, it doesn't mean there is nothing. So I think a no lynch today is the most beneficial choice for us right now. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote: Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases. BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2. On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote: Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. [/quote] This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical. Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia. Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim? Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion. DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed. Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid. | ||
| ||
StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Britney Dota 2  22220Calm  3611ggaemo 257Soma 191Dewaltoss 115Aegong  36sSak 23Movie 14ajuk12(nOOB) 10Counter-Strike Super Smash Bros Heroes of the Storm Other Games Grubby5410 B2W.Neo1641 Liquid`RaSZi1173 FrodaN1099 qojqva757 shahzam386 C9.Mang0224 KnowMe129 Hui .81 elazer54 Trikslyr54 |
|
PiGosaur Cup
GSL
Classic vs Cure
Maru vs Rogue
GSL
SHIN vs Zoun
ByuN vs herO
OSC
OSC
Replay Cast
Escore
The PondCast
WardiTV Invitational
Zoun vs Ryung
Lambo vs ShoWTimE
OSC
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
