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On August 27 2010 23:14 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 22:16 citi.zen wrote:
Be careful telling blues what to do, that can easily be used by the mafia using watcher or some other role I haven't thought of. It's important we say who we find suspect, but from there the blues need to draw their own conclusions, not be directed to specific targets this early on. Remember, the watcher is actually a horrible role this game. Even if they watched someone we investigated they would only know how many people visited him. The biggest worry I have is the mafia trying to target people as we investigate them, which would keep us from building up a group of confirmed innocents. On the other hand if you are the alignment cop you don't know what your sanity is so the faster your first target dies and help confirm it the better (the reason why we want them to target someone who will probably die tomorrow).
Ah, you're right, forgot how weak the watcher is.
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In the spirit of offering my thoughts before the night comes, here's my list of people worth investigating:
Chaoser - too quiet for my taste / not trying to contribute
LSB - went over his posts yesterday, he responded fine, but can't hurt to check
BrownBear - Too quiet / not trying to contribute
siNiquity - A few strange posts here and there, like the little exchange with Fishball or the early argument that we as long as number picks are kept secret we don't need a weighting algorithm
Divinek - odd pick + shooting on day 1, even if it was BM.
At the end of the day I fear Radfield might be right guessing we don't have that many investigative roles despite the plan, so we'll need to at least force more forum activity out of people.
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On August 28 2010 10:14 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2010 10:12 Divinek wrote:
woah
lol sick, who can kill night one?
and good job medic! or vet or something, who took a hit? Don't roleclaim. It makes mafia unable to tell whether they actually hit a good role or the target just got medic protection. And roleclaiming won't help us anyway since no pms. Only thing it does is make them confirmed, but even then that isn't that helpful. If really need be he can say he got hit if he's going to die. Also, the serial killer did.
Right, the Sk killed Subversion and mafia hit the vet/medic protected person.
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Edit: mafia hit the vet/medic protected player/traitor last night :-)
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If Zeks lied there would presumably be another person out there who took a mafia hit, unless the mafia made the nonsensical decision not to hit anyone. Also, given how fast he claimed, I doubt he is the traitor - too little time to come up with such a plan.
If Zeks told the truth, either Southrawarea lied, or there is a traitor in the top 3.
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The only thing I can think of that would motivate zeks to come forward if he is traitor is fear he was watched or the mafia was tracked to him. Seems unlikely and at any rate confirmable with an alignment check, so risky to lie and draw attention to himself. So as I said above, I think it likely SR lied or a top 3 pick lied.
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Is the watcher included in the count of 4 people they see during the night, or is it 4 people excluding the watcher?
Also, does a role take precedence over the mafia hit from the watcher's perspective? Ex: is a mafia doctor protects someone other than Zeks, would that medic not be counted in as a visitor to Zeks?
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Indeed, thanks Ace.
So we had 4 mafia, one died but there is a traitor somewhere.+ Show Spoiler + I don't think the game would have one 3 mafia, at the end of last PYP Ace said he would give the mafia another KP in the future, but instead put in more mafia-friendly roles. I don't see him taking their number down to 3.
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On August 29 2010 03:54 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 03:32 citi.zen wrote:Indeed, thanks Ace. So we had 4 mafia, one died but there is a traitor somewhere. + Show Spoiler + I don't think the game would have one 3 mafia, at the end of last PYP Ace said he would give the mafia another KP in the future, but instead put in more mafia-friendly roles. I don't see him taking their number down to 3. how did you draw the conclusion that there is a traitor somewhere?
I guess there doesn't have to be if SR lied. I'd still think it unlikely, but who knows.
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On August 29 2010 04:41 zeks wrote:
Radfield: I went with the 33/33/33 role cop / copy cat / defensive role because there was mention that copycat should be picked earlier. I truthfully randomed my role.
Something that I've discovered
SR #6 below me is assumed vanilla town, Subversion at #7 was vanilla mafia
Which means Subversion could've overlaped with
1. rastaban CV
2. chaoser Bad Santa/traitor
3. LSB PoD/traitor
5. me RC/CC/Defensive role/traitor
Likelihood of Subversion picking
CV
next to nothing
Bad Santa or PoD
Don't see why Subversion will pick those either.
Traitor:
He's scum so he wouldn't pick traitor.
me: RC/CC/Defensive Role
Subversion likely overlapped with me and since Subversion is dead then it is likely that scum would know what my role is...
Unless Subversion overlapped with SouthRawrea, then that means South never picked traitor in the beginning - which doesn't make sense because South would be a townie with a role but lied about being a traitor
Thus conclusion: mafia knows my role and wants me dead by lynch since they couldn't finish the job last night
Which is why I'm not claiming because they will call me out on it.
Very interesting post, I need to think about this more. You're saying the mafia knew your (defensive) role, but still chose to hit you, right?
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On August 29 2010 07:11 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 07:03 JeeJee wrote:On August 29 2010 06:45 SouthRawrea wrote:On August 29 2010 06:36 ~OpZ~ wrote:On August 29 2010 06:33 ~OpZ~ wrote:On August 29 2010 06:20 LSB wrote:On August 29 2010 06:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Zeks, you're in a bad position. There is one way to prove you're role cop and tell us Fishball's role...That would be the only way I see you living. Which even then...It's kind of slim. As I've said, Role Cop isn't exactly the most powerful role in the world, in my mind.
Anyway, I see some problems with everything, and you can't be town aligned. We know he's rolecop, I was the one to prove it. The problem is if he is town aligned. Zeks, if you are town aligned, please do not disclose Fishball's Role. Fishball could be thinking of a strategy, and it is always bad for Mafia to know more blue roles than necessary. How did you prove it? You picked before him. This hinges on Subversion of picking RoleCop, not PoD/BadSanta/CompVig...If one of those roles picked traitor, then he he could of picked any of those, albeit be wrong. Nevermind. I understand. You would of been on the same team, how would you two of picked the same roles....Shit...I need to think about this a little more. I still feel Zeks is something like SK. Please elaborate. I was reading this and my thought pattern was all jumbled from my earlier post. I would like to know how he's proven. Also. 4 mafia visited Zeks either that or 4 other roles. I find it hard to believe that 4 different investigative roles visited Zeks without a single mafia doing so. If it was only mafia visiting and what he's saying about being saved is true, there would be 5 visitors. So if 4 others really did visit him, 1 doctor, 2 of this (tracker, alignment cop, bullet bill), SK and 1 watcher(doesn't count in the original 4) as I find it hard to believe even JOAT would visit him. Poor play/luck on the part of power roles if this is true. Either that or Compulsive Vig shot him but then rastaban would claim that so Zek's claim would be true correct? Thus CV did not shoot. He couldn't anyways. It was night 1. We can then conclude that Zeks was either converted or never visited by mafia. this post makes no sense 4 people visited Zeks. Any mafia actions show as all mafia visiting to the watcher. (Including ones that die by day) Thus if mafia visited Zeks, then no townies other than the watcher visited Zeks correct? Simple. However, Zeks said he was shot and protected. He couldn't have been shot by Vig as they can't shoot. He claims he was protected by the doctor. If he was protected by the doctor and shot by the mafia, the watcher would've seen 5 people visiting Zeks which is NOT the case. Thus it was either a combination of SK and town roles that visited Zeks or only mafia. The fact that Zeks is still alive means that he was either CONVERTED by mafia or was never visited by them. That better?
If the SK shot Zeks then the mafia shot their own guy in Subversion. As JeeJee said, you make no sense.
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On August 29 2010 11:50 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 06:45 SouthRawrea wrote:On August 29 2010 06:36 ~OpZ~ wrote:On August 29 2010 06:33 ~OpZ~ wrote:On August 29 2010 06:20 LSB wrote:On August 29 2010 06:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Zeks, you're in a bad position. There is one way to prove you're role cop and tell us Fishball's role...That would be the only way I see you living. Which even then...It's kind of slim. As I've said, Role Cop isn't exactly the most powerful role in the world, in my mind.
Anyway, I see some problems with everything, and you can't be town aligned. We know he's rolecop, I was the one to prove it. The problem is if he is town aligned. Zeks, if you are town aligned, please do not disclose Fishball's Role. Fishball could be thinking of a strategy, and it is always bad for Mafia to know more blue roles than necessary. How did you prove it? You picked before him. This hinges on Subversion of picking RoleCop, not PoD/BadSanta/CompVig...If one of those roles picked traitor, then he he could of picked any of those, albeit be wrong. Nevermind. I understand. You would of been on the same team, how would you two of picked the same roles....Shit...I need to think about this a little more. I still feel Zeks is something like SK. Please elaborate. I was reading this and my thought pattern was all jumbled from my earlier post. I would like to know how he's proven. Also. 4 mafia visited Zeks either that or 4 other roles. I find it hard to believe that 4 different investigative roles visited Zeks without a single mafia doing so. If it was only mafia visiting and what he's saying about being saved is true, there would be 5 visitors. So if 4 others really did visit him, 1 doctor, 2 of this (tracker, alignment cop, bullet bill), SK and 1 watcher(doesn't count in the original 4) as I find it hard to believe even JOAT would visit him. Poor play/luck on the part of power roles if this is true. Either that or Compulsive Vig shot him but then rastaban would claim that so Zek's claim would be true correct? Thus CV did not shoot. He couldn't anyways. It was night 1. We can then conclude that Zeks was either converted or never visited by mafia. I just got back from some weekend activities and I see my name all over the place. What have you done ~Opz~? Just went through 9 pages, and wanted to make a quick short comment to the bold part up top. Comp Vig cannot shoot on Night 1...
Are you kidding me? The 2nd sentence after the one you bold is:
He couldn't anyways. It was night 1
I am not going to pretend I follow SR's logic, but that was a very odd post from you Fishball. THAT is what you wanted to comment on from the last 9 pages? Sin's profile quote, which you cited earlier, seems to fit quite nicely:
On August 27 2010 08:18 Fishball wrote:
Wise men speak because they have something to say; fools because they have to say something; trolls just because.
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Here is my discomfort with Zeks as the SK: at the time he claimed to have been hit he had no reason to think he had been watched - Bum's post came quite a bit later. Why draw extra attention to himself as the SK? Why not stay quiet?
That concern aside, too much in his story does not add up, so he has to be lying and/or have made a mistake. So yeah...
##vote Zeks
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And Zeks, once we go into the twilight and your fate is sealed, please let us know your top mafia suspects.
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On August 29 2010 13:05 Pandain wrote:
##Pardon Zeks
If you really are the pardoner you have a lot of explaining to do.
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On August 29 2010 23:42 Radfield wrote:
Fishball, I'd still like to hear who you looked at last night. I can't see any reason why you wouldn't claim, even if you did look at Opz or jeejee(potential JOATs). The info is simply more worthwhile in town hands then in mafia. Certainly if you looked at anyone other than Opz or Jeejee you should reveal.
I may be wrong here though, so if anyone disagrees speak up.
You are right, Fishball should come forward with the result of his check.
I am OK using the CompVig on LSB tonight. I picked on him earlier and I still think he makes a decent target. At best he's traitor, at worst he is town PoD, which is not a bad loss.
I am also curious to hear more from SiNiquity - he made some early errors I brushed off then came out strong suggesting Zeks was the SK pretty much at the same time as LSB figured it out. Remember, the mafia knew Zeks was SK at this point. His posts in general seem to be putting out some ideas but never quite following through, attempts to "seem active" rather than "solve puzzles".
+ Show Spoiler +Ex: strange reasoning On August 23 2010 07:35 SiNiquity wrote:
Pandain: If numbers are kept secret, then I don't see a reason to do a weighted algorithm (% based) instead of just a plain role assignment. Ex: SK call On August 29 2010 04:07 SiNiquity wrote:Here's an up to date list of roles: - rastaban - Compulsive Vig. (supported by Hesmyrr's confirmed town role)
- chaoser - Bad Santa or Traitor
- LSB - Prince of Darkness or Traitor
Hesmyrr - Vanilla (tried to grab C.V.)
- zeks - Bullet Bill, Veteran, Serial Killer (roles that can take a Mafia hit and survive), or Traitor
- SouthRawrea - Vanilla (tried to grab Traitor)
Subversion - Vanilla
- Fishball
- ~Opz~
- citi.zen
- BrownBear
- JeeJee
- DarthThienAn
- siNiquity
- Divinek - Day Vigilante
- Radfield
Bill Murray - Mason
- bumatlarge - Watcher
- Pandain - Not Mason
It occurred to me earlier there's a possibility for Zeks that AFAIK hasn't been mentioned -- that being that he's the Serial Killer.Show nested quote +You are a Vanilla Serial Killer!
Every night you can choose to kill 1 player. You show up Innocent to alignment checks and are bulletproof at night. Role checks reveal whatever role you picked in your draft, if you don't get a role you show up as Vanilla SK. Your kills also go through bulletproof vests.
You win by killing everyone else and being the last surviving player.
On August 29 2010 16:00 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 15:54 Fishball wrote:On August 29 2010 15:29 Pandain wrote:On August 29 2010 15:23 Fishball wrote:On August 29 2010 14:31 Pandain wrote:
1.Fishball reveal what you found for one. You've already been revealed.
Are you serious? Should I even have to explain this? I will have no further comments until Ace's posts is up (no matter lynch or no lynch) and more people has spoken up. I don't understand. I'm sorry, can you just look past my stupidy and please explain? No matter what has been said, even Zeks claims he is SK, I'm not taking any chances until Ace confirms. Also, revealing my check results means Mafia will get it too. SK aside, Mafia already know who "should" have guns. If I checked someone with guns and is not one of their own, who wold that be? The JOAT. Things get a lot more complicated from there. O i see I forgot about the Joat. He's possibly one of our last investigative roles too :/ . So kp is now 1? 1 kill a night is really managable n.n
The night KP is actually 2 because of the CV. The good thing is we most likely control that hit, and have some leads now.
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Radfield, I am confused with your proposals for tonight. For example, why CV LSB and use the Bullet Bill on SR? The way LSB flips will pretty much tell us what SR's alignment is, no?
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On August 30 2010 02:55 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +
Okay, do I really need to explain again why Zeks could not be the traitor?
My logic is impeccable. Subversion drafted role cop, but turned vanilla. Therefore Zeks is role cop. No if/then/or/buts. Zeks is the role cop. Zeks therefore is serial killer.
I was absolutely sure after 1) Zeks role claimed rolecop (dumb idea) 2) Zeks started acting like he was cornered.
First: we had no idea what subversion drafted, he could have gone for CompVig for all we knew. Second: Even if zeks did claim role cop, it could have still been bs, since of course he has to claim either role cop or a defensive role. But yes, it was foolish for him to claim role cop, that was his real mistake. Third: Zeks acting cornered doesn't make him more likely to be either SK or traitor. He was in the spotlight the moment I asked for his roleclaim, and he messed it up from there. At no point was the possibility of zeks being traitor zero. In fact, up until his admission of SK, I still thought he might be traitor.
A bigger problem with the argument against LSB being "too sure" Zeks was SK is that, if he is traitor, he probably did NOT get recruited, so he would not have that knowledge from the mafia. Someone like Sin popping up to say "hi, I just thought of this, have to go now, byebye" if far more worrisome to me.
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On August 30 2010 04:59 Fishball wrote:
I don't think having me check SR would be the best way to go.
The Traitor scenario is only left with 3 players.
Assuming SR is the Traitor afterall, do you think the Mafia would actually recruit him? He is bound to die sooner or later. Recruiting the Traitor doesn't increases the Mafias' KP. Leaving SR alone would be in their best interest, while they can focus their powers on other players. The only situation that I can think of where the Mafia would deliberately recruit a Traitor out in the open, would be at an end game nail-biting scenario when a single player count would be a win/lose.
Anyways, I think there are plenty of candidates on our player list to check. Some of the fishier players, we have BrownBear, JeeJee, DarthThienAn, SiNiquity, and Pandain. Hell, even Radfield is not confirmed. If I checked Radfield and he doesn't have a gun, Town basically have a smart, semi-confirmed Townie to go to, granted if me and Radfield are not Mafia.
I'll be picking one of the players listed above to check tonight.
Agreed, as stated above, if we cv LSB it makes no sense checking SR.
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Opz, I am starting to think you are red. You keep spamming the thread with nonsense and then claim tracker for no reason what so ever. How does this claim help you or the town? You revealed zero useful information - all you did was confirm Fishball visited you after his claim. It seems retarded to claim at tracker at that point, but you did it anyway.
Also, why would you track a 50% role cop if you were town anyway?
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EPT
