Let me start with YM's excellent early case on Chaoser:
On July 24 2010 09:48 youngminii wrote:My case on Chaoser.+ Show Spoiler +Let us delve into the mind of scum. The pattern for a normal, general scum that doesn't go out of his way to do anything out of the ordinary is quite simple. Lay low on the first day or two and slowly come out with accusations. Be very careful of jumping on bandwagons as it may arouse suspicion. Rather than openly coming out and making a case on someone on the first day/two, try to find someone that is making a fool of themselves and make a small case to see if it gains momentum. I think we can all agree that this is a standard way of playing as scum, keeps the suspicion low while still contributing information.
Now let us look at chaoser's early game. One of his first posts is to abstain. This vote does not change for the entire day. Fits perfectly in line with my 'lay low' theory, especially (as the wonderful Pandain pointed out) as chaoser was so against my 'no lynch' strategy. One would have to wonder why he didn't simply vote for someone if he was so against it. He raises the counter argument that voting to abstain is different from voting to no lynch, which is a moot point in my opinion really.
I think it's less about the days and more about the fact that we get tons of information from looking at vote lists
Cool, chaoser wants information from voting lists on the first day. In fact, he even points this out to the public. So why does he not vote for anyone? Oh right, abstaining doesn't label you as 'against' someone. Good stuff in my opinion, I'd probably do it too if I was scum.
So up until early Day 2, chaoser continues to bring in a wealth of information (such as the voting history of certain people etc.) but doesn't actually accuse anyone. All he does is make some accusatory comment that doesn't really have any flair to it. See below.
chaoser to BB:
So basically you just said: "lawl, i messed up/made a mistake but oh well, not going to change." Anyone else find that suspicious?
So early on in Day 2, after a small group of people (Divinek, DTA and Amber[light]) already vote for BB, chaoser joins in and mounts a small case against BB.
+ Show Spoiler +And to be truthful, I don;t really believe that BrownBear is townie just from the way he's posting. For the first day he pretty much posts nothing and bandwagons with no real reason. When people point him out of it (that he voted before reading) he goes oh well, it doesn't matter now when it CLEARLY did, the vote ended 6-5. Then, after a whole DAY of people pointing fingers at him he decides to come in and post about vets claiming and basically giving horrible advice. I'm inclined to say he's mafia who fucked up the first day and now he's trying to play dumb townie. Also, his whole ramble about claiming is pushing us off the topic of Subversion's suspicious vote as well as his little statement about how mafia isn't really making mistakes.
I'm not 100% clear on my vote yet but I'm watching BrownBear for now. And I also think we should vote double lynch. It's going to be 52 hours till the next lynch give or take, you guys don't think we'll have more than enough information then?
After a page or two a
LOT of people jump on the bandwagon. It's uncanny. Chaoser realises that if BB is lynched and he flips town then things will look bad for him, so he switches his vote to Subversion, another bandwagon being formed at the time. It's funny, after using that argument against BB he immediately switches to Subversion after seeing the possibility that he might be labeled as mafia (note: someone actually said that the '3rd/4th person on the bandwagon tends to be mafia' and could have affected chaoser's thoughts). The argument he uses against Subversion is one that has already gained traction from BC/Protractinium and so it's easy to ride with.
Pandain then mounts an argument against chaoser, who responds by responding to each and every point. I believe they continue this argument via PM and sort it out there and Pandain drops his case on chaoser (I attribute this to Pandain being new to this game and not being very good at picking out lies/deceit etc.). Anyway, what does chaoser do now? Of course, he abstains. Oh, the joy of not really voting for anyone.
A common trait of mafia is that they won't contribute too much in the accusations etc. early on. They will however, try and 'appear' to be useful by posting stuff that doesn't really cause them any risk in any way (ie. pointing at someone of being scum). They will often side with someone else or pick on a player that seems to be causing a ruckus which won't be seen as suspicious. In addition to this, scum will go to great lengths to defend themselves. Think about it (directed at newer players), if you are scum you are much more willing to come back to this thread and try to shake off any accusations against you. This is why RVS is quite helpful in smaller games. Often scum will 'lurk' meaning they'll browse around, read everything but won't post too much in order to stay under the radar. However, accusing them and voting for them will force them to come out and defend themselves profusely. We can see this in DTA, he was town and everyone started voting for him. He didn't reply in the thread for a looooooong time (I actually pointed this out but I was ignored /yay), indicating that he was in fact, not lurking but actually AWOL, which is a townie trait.
Chaoser falls into the above mafia category. He immediately comes out of his 'useful/informative' shell and starts defending himself a LOT. His posts start becoming a lot of the 'discussion' going on. This continues for a long time, only defending himself and never accusing anyone asides from the occasional "your arguments are weak, why are you trying to get me lynched so bad? Are you scum?" type of argument. Now it's actually really painful to go through skimming page by page but the general trend I see right now is that a lot of people start jumping on the chaoser bandwagon. It's funny, he votes for DTA because he's getting a lot of votes for him. He then states:
From reading this, I'll change my vote to Subversion even though that means I'll 100% die.
Darth, if you wanna help me, you could switch it over too and I think he'll be first.
##unvote
##vote Subversion
Look at this from a scum perspective. He
knows DTA is town. He knows that if DTA is lynched then he'll get an even worse image than before. So what does he do? He tries to side with DTA to lynch someone else that already has a lot of people voting for him. This is actually a good play by mafia as he had already taken the side of voting for Subversion earlier so if questioned, he could retaliate by saying "I already had my suspicions on Subversion before!"
+ Show Spoiler +On an unrelated side note, I find it funny how people are so quick to link me to Subversion (tree.hugger especially) because I defended him a bit whilst nobody links me to DTA's town and Hyperbola's town when I actually gave them proper defenses. Quite ridiculous imo.
Blah blah DTA ends up getting lynched (one of the final votes by chaoser, although it could be argued that he did it to save himself) and ends up flipping town.
I know I've always been wary of chaoser but I'd like everyone to read my analysis of him. I'm not going to analyse Night 3 'cause that was just a big spam fest and lots of people probably have an ill image of me now. I'd just like you all to trust me for once (I was right on hyperbola/DTA even though it doesn't mean anything, yes I know) and vote for chaoser. I would also like to mention that I believe infundlibsuvxkum and chaoser are linked but that discussion can be saved for another time.
Since then here has been his recent contributions:
On July 28 2010 23:06 chaoser wrote:But what about our friendship alliance ;_;
One-liner
On July 29 2010 01:56 chaoser wrote:
Original Message:
why did sub only want to check them and not you?
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Original Message:
We were going to do test on both each day.
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Original Message:
why didn't you get amber in...
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Original Message:
yeah sub made a direct claim to proct for w/e reason. =
Than proctat told me. We were going to let youngmini in if he passed the test but then he revealed our plan
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Original Message:
you said that down below. Your DT checked amber...when did it become procat?
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Original Message:
Nope. He checked youngmini and Amber. Both were green.
Youngmini was suscipious though so we decided to lay out the test.
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Original Message:
did your DT check me?
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Original Message:
amber wasn't in the group.
Procatorium or w/e was.
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Original Message:
well fuck me, i'mma go read over the rest of his posts, is it just you and amber now?
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Original Message:
yes -.-
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Original Message:
was he your dt?
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Original Message:
Subversion was dead.
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On July 29 2010 01:56 chaoser wrote:
my PMs with Pandain
PM list
On July 29 2010 05:32 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 04:42 zeks wrote:
I am also intrigued to know who rastaban's DT was
Did Subversion tell rastaban too?
Or was there something I missed
I think he mentioned that BC was his DT
helpful but no new content
On July 29 2010 07:09 chaoser wrote:
This really has become a spamfest huh
complains about spam
On July 29 2010 08:43 chaoser wrote:
OH ME ME ME!
spams
On July 29 2010 09:52 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 09:43 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
If/when Pandain flips mafia it pretty much clears chaoser.
Wait, why does it clear me?
This is followed by pandain's response:
On July 29 2010 10:02 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 09:52 chaoser wrote:On July 29 2010 09:43 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
If/when Pandain flips mafia it pretty much clears chaoser.
Wait, why does it clear me?
Probably because I was the one who first wrote against you, thus mafia probably doesn't want to accuse their own scum. I even went pretty in depth too. This excludes the BC and SR case of course.
Also, @ divinek. Idk. Personaly I highly reccomend everyone who hasn't already rced to zeks to do so NOW. He has already proven hes safe by getting rid of SR and BC, the godfather. Please, don't be scared.
Why would Chaoser be so worried if a known red flipping would clear him? Could he have known that even though he had flipped red he was the miller, and was worried that the reverse would hold up,
he would be suspected when Pandain eventualy flipped miller?
On July 29 2010 10:13 chaoser wrote:
day's over right?
oneline without content
On July 29 2010 12:44 chaoser wrote:
zeks DID say he wanted to blow a popsicle stand.
again
On July 29 2010 14:00 chaoser wrote:
jesus...
more
On July 29 2010 14:01 chaoser wrote:
goddamnit, lost our DT and medic. All we have left are vets...
I think this might count as 2 lines but the second sentence didn't finish so lets make 1.5
On July 29 2010 14:19 chaoser wrote:
why did sin protect xelin????
...
On July 29 2010 22:47 chaoser wrote:
1) Youngminii got it wrong, here's what happened: Sin protected Xelin for some reason and died. zeks only had one bomb on infun because he lied about having two bombs out to scare mafia. He actually did have two bombs on BC and South the night before they were lynched and by the time they died, he had only moved on off, losing a bomb. The mafia then hit bumatlarge and lakris. At least, that's my reading of it.
2) Pandain ;_; you got DT checked red, let it die man. You're going to get lynched regardless, try to help town find second lynch.
3) youngminii moved his vote off me ;_; I was going to make him post a video of him dancing to some song when I flipped green
we actualy get more than one line this time, but line one is interpreting the night post and line 3 is joking with YM, only 2 has any content. It is pushing for Pandain's lynch who showed red, this is pretty much what everyone will do though mafia will love this since it is a guaranteed kill since they know he is miller now.
On July 29 2010 22:48 chaoser wrote:
##Vote Pandain
sorry buddy, you got checked red. You know I'd want you to vote me if I got checked red too.
unfortunatly there are no DTs to verify this.
On July 29 2010 23:03 chaoser wrote:
14/30
1. tree.hugger
2. brownbear
3. youngminii (sub said was green)
5. chaoser
6. divinek
11. rastaban (said BC claimed DT to him)
13. Amber[LighT] (sub said was green?)
15. pandain (Flipped Red)
16. ~OpZ~
23. d3_crescentia (Got medic protected?)
24. Misder
26. Pyrrholuxia
27. Tricode (Vigi, said he hit BC)
29. protactinium
What else is there? that's the condensed list.
Player list, contributing without analysing, or pushing for suspects.
On July 29 2010 23:09 chaoser wrote:
From looking at nights, it seems like Vets didn't get hit. The only time that was even a possibility was during the night where only Sub died though I guess we've decided that he got double stacked which is highly suggestive that he got leaked or they somehow were very sure he was DT. So that means if we have two vets that's 11+2 v 3. If we kill one today it'll be 10+2 v 2 and then when mafia hit at night and if they don't hit vet it'll be 9+2 v 2. I say we have very good chances of winning.
contributing more game observations but without analysing people, or pushing for suspects.
On July 29 2010 23:26 chaoser wrote:
From my PMs with tree.hugger early in the game, he led me to believe that he was in some sort of circle and that he was 100% sure that Sub and Young were mafia. Care to explain, tree?
Now pushes for Tree.hugger, thankfully we are now getting content
On July 29 2010 23:28 chaoser wrote:
citi.zen misinformed us, as everyone saw. We judged citi.zen to be the one more likely to be mafia, but it was basically a gut call on that front. We assumed that both options would prove the same thing, and it was just a choice between two candidates.
See my thread posts for my irritable summation.
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Original Message:
dude...wtf happened tonight? did your circle get misinformation or something?
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Original Message:
I don't think we can muster the votes to get them today.
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Original Message:
do you have any info that I could use to help back up my little case a couple pages back or are you guys still not ready to move yet?
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Original Message:
Yes.
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Original Message:
are you still decently sure about subversion/youngminii?
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Original Message:
It confuses the hell out of me. I have about three explanations for it, and neither of them are particularly useful or likely.
I mean, I know the mafia is trying to snipe blues, but they clearly suck at it, and the fact that nobody in the thread who was influential in any way was killed makes me suspicious.
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Original Message:
well, you didn't die lol that's a good thing...right?
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Original Message:
He's an idiot. Doubt he's mafia, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't block out what he says. Listen at your peril.
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Original Message:
final message, what are you thoughts on pandain? is he trustable?
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Original Message:
luck has little to do with it.
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Original Message:
best of luck
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Original Message: <--tree.hugger
Haha, I'm probably dying tonight. I've come to terms with that and made appropriate arrangements.
I don't thing Pandian's pm release will change anything.
Another PM list
On July 29 2010 23:29 chaoser wrote:
er, BM, can I edit that into spoilers?
On July 29 2010 23:30 chaoser wrote:
##Vote tree.hugger
Until tree responds, I'm going to keep my vote on him
On July 30 2010 06:37 chaoser wrote:
wait, did we double lynch?
three more filler posts, one line a piece
On July 31 2010 02:15 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2010 01:58 BrownBear wrote:Divinek, I don't think we're going to get anywhere by arguing, so I'm just gonna say we agree to disagree.
Your style of play says that if someone checks red they get lynched no matter what. It's a black and white style of play, and it is legitimate.
My style of play says that it's more shades of grey, especially if Millers are in the game. I decided that since Pandain and I had been sharing PMs and talking about things since about Day 2, and I had gotten a very pro-town read off of him, I would trust my instincts and trust that he was miller #2.
Obviously, you think my style of play is stupid, and I think your style of play is narrow-minded. Arguing about it isn't going to get anywhere. Let's just agree that we lynched Pandain, he flipped miller, and now we're moving on.
Before I take my vote off of you, though, please quote your post where you claimed vet. I still didn't see it reading through the last 5 or so pages, and I'm too lazy to read further back
It's not stupid, but it's a very dangerous type of play. You can have people like BC or such who can play pro-town ish and make great arguments and in the end sway people's votes away from him even if he is mafia. It's happened several times before in other games where someone will be flipped red, claim miller/insane DT and argue people away from lynching them when they were mafia. People can play anti-town/make bad calls and still be town but appear as mafia. People can play pro-town and still be mafia and appear as town. If you start playing the grey, it gets very very hard to tell if it's a town grey or a mafia grey. The best way, and most heavyhanded way, is to kill anyone who flips red.
Makes sure that pandain gets voted for. Again, this isn't bad play since he was red, but mafia would be pushing heavily for him since that is one of the 2x lynches they don't have to worry about.
On July 31 2010 13:46 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2010 12:09 Divinek wrote:On July 31 2010 12:01 youngminii wrote:
Red's probably just riding along letting town kill each other. Rastaban/chaoser gogogo.
yeah wtf chaoser abstained from the second lynch vote or his name is somehow invisible to me in that list bm posted
die die die
I voted pan and tree. Kill me if you like, I'll only flip green and then youngminii has to do the run devil run dance for TL mafia =]
He knows that YM had been tailing him the whole game
On August 01 2010 09:44 chaoser wrote:
I find it strange that pyrr still isn't dead yet even though he's a pretty big name...hmmmm
would have been nice for chaoser to have posted some actual reasoning behind why we should suspect pyrr.
On August 01 2010 13:47 chaoser wrote:
2. brownbear
5. chaoser
6. divinek
11. rastaban (said BC claimed DT to him)
16. ~OpZ~
23. d3_crescentia (Got medic protected?)
24. Misder
26. Pyrrholuxia
27. Tricode (Vigi, said he hit BC)
29. protactinium
Another player list
On August 02 2010 05:42 chaoser wrote:
Sorry I haven't been posting/active in this thread for the last day, Got an interview with UPenn tomorrow for medical school so I've been prepping. Should be back by 3 in the afternoon tomorrow so I'll write up something big then.
I am intrested to see what we will get when he returns, I just hope it isn't another one liner or pm/vote list.
EPT
