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I think right now we have a few things of importance in question right now, but the principle two are:
- BloodyC0bbler’s relationship to rastaban
- Misder’s inactivity
It’s harder to explain inactivity, and even harder to analyze somebody when they haven’t played many games. Therefore, I’m going to come back and look at Misder’s posts during a later time and for now instead focus on BloodyC0bbler. I think by looking at his posts—from not just this game but from ones further back in TL Mafia history—it will help me to determine rastaban’s affiliation this game. In the same way, I think that analyzing BloodyC0bbler’s play will help in looking at his interactions with rastaban this game, since I believe rastaban is a new player.
My backlog of reading through old TL Mafia games has led me all the way back to TL Mafia XII, Plexa’s Summer Season game. I would go back further to read the older games, but I have not had time to do so and I believe the more ‘recent’ games provide a more accurate representation of BloodyC0bbler.
In short, since and including TL Mafia XII, BloodyC0bbler has played in these games:
- TL Mafia VIII
- Mafia XII – The Summer Season
- TL Mafia XV
- TL Mafia XVIII
- TL Mafia XX
- TL Mafia XXII
- Three Kingdoms Mafia
- Godfather Mafia
I may be leaving some games off the list, probably some mini- or MICRO- Mafia games, but these seven games range back to July of 2009, so that gives us a year to look at BloodyC0bbler’s development.
Games that date further back (but I have not really had a chance to read) include:
- TL Mafia V
- TL Mafia III
- TL Mafia II
- …and another TL Mafia V (The Wrath of Khan)
Excluding Three Kingdoms Mafia, which made my head hurt when reading it, and TL Mafia V Khan version (where BloodyC0bbler was the Village Idiot) the rest of the games are of the more standard TL breed. In the remaining 10 games, he has been town-affiliated eight out of ten times. In Godfather Mafia, he was a substitute and was recruited shortly after, and in TL Mafia VIII he was the Traitor.
In short, the majority of his games have been played from the town-aligned side. In those games where BloodyC0bbler did not die early, he was generally a central town figure when on the town side, and was very active in making plans for the town. From outside sources, BloodyC0bbler is a “master of PM land”, meaning he was very skilled at figuring out players through information gathered throughout out-of-thread communication. In games where he survived, BloodyC0bbler definitely was a very vocal and outspoken townsperson and wasn’t afraid to directly engage somebody. In VIII as the Traitor he was able to get Ver to modkill himself, though the town still won. Incidentally, I have found that Ver has never been on the losing side. In Godfather Mafia, he was substituted in and by the time he was recruited to the Mafia, citi.zen the Godfather had gotten himself lynched, so BloodyC0bbler just went about trying to kill as many people as he could before going down himself.
Using my backlog of collected information, I can see where BloodyC0bbler’s play deviates from the norm in this game and where it stays the same. As the Godfather this time around, he was ‘active’ enough, but didn’t have the same sort of aura as he did in past games. Due to some combination of having a job plus the regular Mafia-skulking-behind-the-scenes downtime, he showed up every once in a while to make posts. In the beginning, he tried to garner town credit by posting “what the town should do” type of posts, but by Day 3 with citi.zen’s plan BloodyC0bbler moved directly to attacking the plan. This is something he has done in past games even as a townsperson; let’s face it, in Mafia if you are town you only know of one thing: your role, and should be distrustful of other things until innocence is confirmed. That day, he was successful in getting citi.zen lynched, and that’s the day we should focus on. In trying to ruin citi.zen’s plan, BloodyC0bbler threw a couple different wrenches. Beyond the original “this plan is not foolproof and this is how it can be improved” BloodyC0bbler also decided to send in SouthRawrea (I have no doubt now that his Mad Hatter ploy was engineered by BloodyC0bbler), and decided to create a third Detective mouth in order to splash more paint upon citi.zen. Now, SouthRawrea has been shown as red. Now the question lies with rastaban. If he was red, then BloodyC0bbler would have been risking three Mafia in order to take down citi.zen, and a double lynch was coming the next day. BloodyC0bbler had already been busing SouthRawrea (note that he was the one who called him out for ‘inactivity’ first before citi.zen introduced his plan) but then had to change tactics to deal with the threat from the town. I believe on Day 4 there was something going on because SouthRawrea bused BloodyC0bbler back with the Mad Hatter role transfer thing, and after that rastaban revealed that BloodyC0bbler had claimed Detective to him. Clearly, two roles at once cannot exist, so either BloodyC0bbler was lying or the two that were trying to bus him were. I’m going to attempt to analyze rastaban both as if he were a Mafia member and as if he were on the town’s side.
On August 02 2010 00:19 Tricode wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2010 17:23 Misder wrote:
It was me who is the least active, but now, it seems like there are others as inactive as me.
I'm just gonna continue to vote for rastaban. I still believe that BC is smart enough to create a fake pm for the mafia group in order to get rid of any suspicion of a mafia member.
#Vote rastaban You mean create one for rastaban to use lol or make a bad conversation that leads him no where since Rastaban isn't a blue thus making rastaban kinda useless to BC to begin with?
There must be some reason for BloodyC0bbler to have targeted rastaban, and I think it’s actually quite obvious. Though it was probably through luck that citi.zen’s call for Detectives coincided with BloodyC0bbler’s Detective ploy, it can conceivably be seen that BloodyC0bbler was planning to use rastaban for something. As a new player, rastaban is prone to be more trusting (and he was, I guess) and listened to BloodyC0bbler. BloodyC0bbler could have used him to infiltrate town circles then gotten him killed off at night before anything could spread back to him, and nobody would be any the wiser. rastaban would not have been high on anybody’s watch list, being both a new and not too spammy (doesn’t post too much but does have good content) poster, and anybody would probably have believed the Mafia to be bluesniping, as they have been doing all game. BloodyC0bbler chose Veteran, which is a common role, so claiming Detective and Mad Hatter (I don’t think BloodyC0bbler even claimed Mad Hatter or pretended to at any point; that was more likely SouthRawrea trying to bus him) is still weird. It served its purpose though. Assuming rastaban is town, it threw another obstacle in front of citi.zen with the “third Detective claim”, garnered another vote (rastaban’s) on citi.zen, and ultimately served to confuse the town for another long period of time before BloodyC0bbler went down. Before his death though, he attempted to strike back at rastaban and SouthRawrea and accused them. Since SouthRawrea went red, I still find it highly unlikely that two Mafia members would be accusing BloodyC0bbler so heavily, especially since he was already in the spotlight and was almost about to be lynched. If rastaban was town, this was the perfect way to try to paint him red. We’ve seen from Godfather Mafia that BloodyC0bbler likes trying to take down as many people as possible before he dies, so targeting somebody who called him out (rastaban) would be completely in line with his ‘red’ play. Another thing that lines up is his skulking. He was not active as a townsperson other than his occasional long post, and obviously spent most of the game PMing, though I bet you he didn’t target many people. Most definitely, he was working on a few select individuals, and it seems rastaban was one of them. In short, if rastaban is innocent then BloodyC0bbler has done a good job (including posthumous time) of trying to paint him red.
Now what if rastaban is Mafia? Well, that leads to two more questions: did he make up the PMs from BloodyC0bbler? Did BloodyC0bbler write them for him? The first does not make sense: if he was trying to find credibility amongst the town, why would he try to make up the PMs himself? I do not know exactly how BloodyC0bbler ‘speaks’ to be say, but the PMs do look close to what he talked like in thread. Being a new player myself, I will defer to Tricode and Pyrrhuloxia at this point, and the consensus seems to be that it looks like BloodyC0bbler, but isn’t exactly like his everyday language. In conjunction with the whole “two Mafia trying to bus an already-near death Godfather” thing, rastaban making up the PMs himself seems too ludicrous of a scenario, which means that if rastaban is Mafia then BloodyC0bbler wrote the PMs himself, then set rastaban up to look innocent, exonerated after BloodyC0bbler’s death. This fits in with BloodyC0bbler’s ballsy play as Mafia (from the limited info I have to examine) and certainly sets rastaban up as a town player.
However, once again given the complete impracticality that resides in the double bus, I am still slightly in favor of rastaban being town-aligned, though enough evidence may sway my decision. With both Detectives dead and the only blue roles being a spent Vigilante (Tricode?) and two Veterans (Divinek has claimed and we don’t know the second) that essentially means Mafia has free shots at night, and at this point the only legitimate confirms we have are Tricode, since I think at this point another Killpower role should have shown up to counter, and on a lesser scale Divinek, since we do not have three Veteran claims. d3_crescentia has claimed a Medic protection Night 1, but that’s contestable: Mafia could have double-stacked hits, but I’m not sure. Tricode and Divinek: these players are town (though why would you claim Veteran, Divinek? Now Mafia just won’t target you… unless you’re mindgaming…), which leaves the remaining players:
- BrownBear
- Chaoser
- rastaban
- ~OpZ~
- d3_crescentia
- Misder
- Pyrrhuloxia
- Protactinium (myself)
In this list, there are three Mafia. Though I am town, I include myself on this list for all intensive and extensive purposes, so we base analysis off of this list. Since we still have a long, long time to wait and nobody’s talking, I will give my thoughts on everybody at a later time. However, as I wrap up this entirely-too-long post (I had intended something around 800 words since I have an appointment to catch shortly… but now it’s almost 2000…) I will pose a few questions I would like answered / topics I would like expounded upon:
- Connections between BloodyC0bbler and Misder (I expect Pyrrhuloxia to go over this one, but feel free anybody else…)
- Misder’s inactivity
- BrownBear’s play this game
- Obviously more about the rastaban-BloodyC0bbler ‘connection’; it shouldn’t just be my point that stands valid, but so far nobody else besides Tricode and Pyrrhuloxia have discussed it
- Chaoser (In my eyes, still could be red) and his play this game
- I believe ~OpZ~ to be trustworthy (read: town) this game, but I would like to hear others’ opinions
I'll see you later, town. Please discuss: those who do not participate in discussion at this point will be heavily scrutinzed. Two thousand words exact.
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Editing above through reposting: at the beginning I had planned to discuss the two things as stated, though really it just turned more into rastaban-BloodyC0bbler analysis. As you can see, Misder inactivity stuff included at the end now.
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aw wtf I'm dead? 
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the reason i claimed vet proct was because it was part of what i needed to tell bc in a pm to get a read off of him and it worked well enough
when i found out he was mafia i had to tell town what i had already told him so we could all have as much info as them in that respect
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Holy shit Protact. I am very impress.
I want to raise the topic of Misder's inactivity - namely, it's nothing new.
TL Mafia XXVI:
Day 1: Shows up late, votes for me for Mayor right after I withdraw my candidacy, then doesnt post. Throughout the rest of the game, posted the bare minimum to stay alive, only stayed on bandwagons, occasionally popped up with some kinda-alright analysis... you get the picture. Only thing he had going for him this game was, he ended up being green. It's possible he is doing the exact same thing again.
I went further back, and couldn't find any other games, so this is all we got to go on.
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On August 02 2010 03:59 BrownBear wrote:Holy shit Protact. I am very impress. I want to raise the topic of Misder's inactivity - namely, it's nothing new. TL Mafia XXVI: Day 1: Shows up late, votes for me for Mayor right after I withdraw my candidacy, then doesnt post. Throughout the rest of the game, posted the bare minimum to stay alive, only stayed on bandwagons, occasionally popped up with some kinda-alright analysis... you get the picture. Only thing he had going for him this game was, he ended up being green. It's possible he is doing the exact same thing again. I went further back, and couldn't find any other games, so this is all we got to go on.
...And you could be protecting Misder to keep the mafia KP at two.
...Also...
##Vote Abstain
I have to work. And I'm waiting on some things. Let's see where this goes...
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On August 02 2010 03:56 Divinek wrote:
the reason i claimed vet proct was because it was part of what i needed to tell bc in a pm to get a read off of him and it worked well enough
when i found out he was mafia i had to tell town what i had already told him so we could all have as much info as them in that respect
I can understand this. I'm not sure why you would claim Veteran to BloodyC0bbler in PMs when he wasn't confirmed (did you do this after he announced he was shot by Tricode?) but at that point you did the logical and correct thing. We can all mark Divinek as town now, though he's just going to not get shot by Mafia...
Other Veteran, do not claim unless your life in danger, that is to say, you are going to be lynched. To be honest though, if you claim then you just won't get shot, but if we get it down to 2 Mafia 2 Veterans and a townie that's much better than not having two Veterans.
On August 02 2010 03:59 BrownBear wrote:Holy shit Protact. I am very impress. I want to raise the topic of Misder's inactivity - namely, it's nothing new. TL Mafia XXVI: Day 1: Shows up late, votes for me for Mayor right after I withdraw my candidacy, then doesnt post. Throughout the rest of the game, posted the bare minimum to stay alive, only stayed on bandwagons, occasionally popped up with some kinda-alright analysis... you get the picture. Only thing he had going for him this game was, he ended up being green. It's possible he is doing the exact same thing again. I went further back, and couldn't find any other games, so this is all we got to go on.
One game isn't enough to really say anything conclusive, and inactivity is a damning curse to the town, since even at this stage of the game it allows Mafia to hide. I still want to see Pyrrhuloxia's evidence to back up his claim, but Misder can just as easily fit the inactive Mafia bill as the inactive townie bill, since BloodyC0bbler has taken up most of this thread's attention. At this point, [b]Misder still needs to talk more since he (am I correct?) has pretty much contributed nothing to this town, both in form of pro-town activity and in material to be analyzed.
Interestingly enough, going back and looking at BloodyC0bbler's and SouthRawrea's interactions, there are virtually none before the Day 3 fiasco. This, in conjunction to BloodyC0bbler's 'analysis' on SouthRawrea leads me to believe that SouthRawrea was initially going to be bused by BloodyC0bbler but then that was disrupted by citi.zen. Of course, by saying that I just went back and had to examine the list of others that BloodyC0bbler had analyzed to see who else was on the list. No go, since they're all dead. My conspiracy theorist mind now makes me think that rastaban is even more likely to be innocent now, since BloodyC0bbler had started a bandwagon on SouthRawrea, and to draw it home and give himself credibility he would need some sort of conclusive evidence--such as a Detective check, no? And he wouldn't even have to come out in the open; he could use his mouth to do so. Bam, SouthRawrea flips red, and the mouth and "Detective" gain credibility. Once the other Detective claims to the mouth, BloodyC0bbler knows and then the Detectives are dead. While this is a very far-fetched and hindsight-induced scenario, it seems in my mind something very likely for BloodyC0bbler to do. He could remain in the shadows while still garnering town credit for offing a red, and it's just the sort of PM trap play he likes to engage in.
I made a long post a while ago that was, sadly, ignored, which called for everybody to analyze each other. Since I see that there's not much discussion going on and I don't see that there will be much (why so inactive, town...) I once again propose for everybody to analyze somebody else, say the next surviving person above you or below you on the player roster. Either way, I don't care too much as I expect this to be ignored as well.
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On August 02 2010 04:30 ~OpZ~ wrote:
...And you could be protecting Misder to keep the mafia KP at two.
I don't give a crap about whether Misder lives or dies, I was just trying to do what Protact told us to and post solid evidence. If you really think it's that scummy then just vote for me, don't give me this crap.
Given that this is essentially LYLO, I want us to vote correctly, not vote kneejerk. Since a lot of people have stacked onto Misder, I want to post the other side so that we make absolutely sure we're voting for the right guy. If Misder is town, it would be easy for mafia to stack on him and end the day with another failed lynch. Since that hasn't happened yet, there's a decent chance he's mafia, but again, it's essentially LYLO. We have to be 100% sure before we vote, we can't just say "oh he's inactive, so he's not helping the town, so it doesn't matter if he dies right guys?"
Unless there's some other huge reveal/scumslip, though, my vote will go to Misder.
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Also:
##Vote: Abstain
for now. I'm starting to get tired of there being so little inactivity in this thread. Because of that, I'm going to leave this thread now and not come back for a good period of time, and I'm liable to forget to vote otherwise. Please start talking, people. You'd think that with five days and nights gone by we'd have more to work off of...
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On August 02 2010 05:17 Protactinium wrote:
I made a long post a while ago that was, sadly, ignored, which called for everybody to analyze each other. Since I see that there's not much discussion going on and I don't see that there will be much (why so inactive, town...) I once again propose for everybody to analyze somebody else, say the next surviving person above you or below you on the player roster. Either way, I don't care too much as I expect this to be ignored as well.
Don't give up! This type of stuff is amazing for town.
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On August 02 2010 05:17 Protactinium wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2010 03:56 Divinek wrote:
the reason i claimed vet proct was because it was part of what i needed to tell bc in a pm to get a read off of him and it worked well enough
when i found out he was mafia i had to tell town what i had already told him so we could all have as much info as them in that respect I can understand this. I'm not sure why you would claim Veteran to BloodyC0bbler in PMs when he wasn't confirmed (did you do this after he announced he was shot by Tricode?) but at that point you did the logical and correct thing. We can all mark Divinek as town now, though he's just going to not get shot by Mafia... Other Veteran, do not claim unless your life in danger, that is to say, you are going to be lynched. To be honest though, if you claim then you just won't get shot, but if we get it down to 2 Mafia 2 Veterans and a townie that's much better than not having two Veterans. Show nested quote +On August 02 2010 03:59 BrownBear wrote:Holy shit Protact. I am very impress. I want to raise the topic of Misder's inactivity - namely, it's nothing new. TL Mafia XXVI: Day 1: Shows up late, votes for me for Mayor right after I withdraw my candidacy, then doesnt post. Throughout the rest of the game, posted the bare minimum to stay alive, only stayed on bandwagons, occasionally popped up with some kinda-alright analysis... you get the picture. Only thing he had going for him this game was, he ended up being green. It's possible he is doing the exact same thing again. I went further back, and couldn't find any other games, so this is all we got to go on. One game isn't enough to really say anything conclusive, and inactivity is a damning curse to the town, since even at this stage of the game it allows Mafia to hide. I still want to see Pyrrhuloxia's evidence to back up his claim, but Misder can just as easily fit the inactive Mafia bill as the inactive townie bill, since BloodyC0bbler has taken up most of this thread's attention. At this point, [b]Misder still needs to talk more since he (am I correct?) has pretty much contributed nothing to this town, both in form of pro-town activity and in material to be analyzed. Interestingly enough, going back and looking at BloodyC0bbler's and SouthRawrea's interactions, there are virtually none before the Day 3 fiasco. This, in conjunction to BloodyC0bbler's 'analysis' on SouthRawrea leads me to believe that SouthRawrea was initially going to be bused by BloodyC0bbler but then that was disrupted by citi.zen. Of course, by saying that I just went back and had to examine the list of others that BloodyC0bbler had analyzed to see who else was on the list. No go, since they're all dead. My conspiracy theorist mind now makes me think that rastaban is even more likely to be innocent now, since BloodyC0bbler had started a bandwagon on SouthRawrea, and to draw it home and give himself credibility he would need some sort of conclusive evidence--such as a Detective check, no? And he wouldn't even have to come out in the open; he could use his mouth to do so. Bam, SouthRawrea flips red, and the mouth and "Detective" gain credibility. Once the other Detective claims to the mouth, BloodyC0bbler knows and then the Detectives are dead. While this is a very far-fetched and hindsight-induced scenario, it seems in my mind something very likely for BloodyC0bbler to do. He could remain in the shadows while still garnering town credit for offing a red, and it's just the sort of PM trap play he likes to engage in. I made a long post a while ago that was, sadly, ignored, which called for everybody to analyze each other. Since I see that there's not much discussion going on and I don't see that there will be much (why so inactive, town...) I once again propose for everybody to analyze somebody else, say the next surviving person above you or below you on the player roster. Either way, I don't care too much as I expect this to be ignored as well.
well what can i say mob did a good job of getting rid of people that actually are talented analyzers and people who are active, they of course made sure to leave alive the inactive fucks like misder
but i promise i will analyze at least one person shortly, i have a theory that leads me to believe chaoser and rasta are innocent and i will explain it in more detail as i go through and try to confirm it.
for some reason im just getting a feeling that their alignment needs to be the same but ill see
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FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
Somebody analyze meeeeeeee meeeeeee
Lol I sound like DTA ^_^v
Also when you guys are done if you haven't signed up for XXX go do so!
Yes this is an open advertisement but you know there's no number like triple-X. You can tell your children and grandchildren in the future about it!
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also just an fyi for town
people acting like proct are right now shouldnt be cleared and be like 'oh look he's helping out town by posting big blocks of text he can't be red!'
dont judge him on his contributions at this point, judge him on his objectives.
At this stage in the game it'd be perfectly fine for all of the mob to put themselves under the spotlight so long as to direct us to one more mis lync.
not that im saying he's red, just keep that in mind you few people that actually read and post in this thread still!
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On August 02 2010 05:27 Divinek wrote:
also just an fyi for town
people acting like proct are right now shouldnt be cleared and be like 'oh look he's helping out town by posting big blocks of text he can't be red!'
dont judge him on his contributions at this point, judge him on his objectives.
At this stage in the game it'd be perfectly fine for all of the mob to put themselves under the spotlight so long as to direct us to one more mis lync.
not that im saying he's red, just keep that in mind you few people that actually read and post in this thread still!
Yep, I have been keeping that in mind! I'm just glad SOMEONE'S posting walls of text, and he has highlighted the points we need to go off of, so so far I have no complaints.
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On August 02 2010 05:18 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2010 04:30 ~OpZ~ wrote:
...And you could be protecting Misder to keep the mafia KP at two. I don't give a crap about whether Misder lives or dies, I was just trying to do what Protact told us to and post solid evidence. If you really think it's that scummy then just vote for me, don't give me this crap. Given that this is essentially LYLO, I want us to vote correctly, not vote kneejerk. Since a lot of people have stacked onto Misder, I want to post the other side so that we make absolutely sure we're voting for the right guy. If Misder is town, it would be easy for mafia to stack on him and end the day with another failed lynch. Since that hasn't happened yet, there's a decent chance he's mafia, but again, it's essentially LYLO. We have to be 100% sure before we vote, we can't just say "oh he's inactive, so he's not helping the town, so it doesn't matter if he dies right guys?" Unless there's some other huge reveal/scumslip, though, my vote will go to Misder.
I abstained FOR that EXACT reason. I'm not a sheep....
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Sorry I haven't been posting/active in this thread for the last day, Got an interview with UPenn tomorrow for medical school so I've been prepping. Should be back by 3 in the afternoon tomorrow so I'll write up something big then.
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On August 02 2010 05:27 flamewheel wrote:
Somebody analyze meeeeeeee meeeeeee
Lol I sound like DTA ^_^v
Also when you guys are done if you haven't signed up for XXX go do so!
Yes this is an open advertisement but you know there's no number like triple-X. You can tell your children and grandchildren in the future about it!
lol
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lol you guys.
##Vote: Misder
For now, at least. Also, where is d3? Haven't seen him in forever.
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D'oh.
##Unvote: Misder
##Vote: Abstain
Was on autopilot, my mind was thinking about Misder... yeah. I are dumb :/
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On August 02 2010 03:59 BrownBear wrote:Holy shit Protact. I am very impress. I want to raise the topic of Misder's inactivity - namely, it's nothing new. TL Mafia XXVI: Day 1: Shows up late, votes for me for Mayor right after I withdraw my candidacy, then doesnt post. Throughout the rest of the game, posted the bare minimum to stay alive, only stayed on bandwagons, occasionally popped up with some kinda-alright analysis... you get the picture. Only thing he had going for him this game was, he ended up being green. It's possible he is doing the exact same thing again. I went further back, and couldn't find any other games, so this is all we got to go on.
this is the way i play >.< this is my second mafia game, so that is the only one in the past. i guess you really cant judge from only one mafia game. Luckily, this mafia game will also support the fact even when I'm inactive, I will end up green. Actually, a lot in that mafia game thought a was mafia member...
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EPT
