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On June 25 2010 09:21 Korynne wrote:
Wow this thread died... can we get some people to do analysis? Me and Radfield both did a couple already... but I'll do more later on.
On June 25 2010 09:37 Radfield wrote:That's what we get for removing BM and Chez  Funny that you enjoy smaller games because there are less people to analyze, and yet you've gone and created a 'small' game with a ton of people
For my part I'm awaiting daybreak. I'm not sure how much can be gained by talking at night unless there's a lot of sudden info to be digested. The Korynne instigated discussion was fine, I just figure talking about new suspicions could help mafia choose their kill to manipulate my intentions. I'd rather deny this of them.
I had used the night phases of XXVI to go fishing since 1) it was a noob game, 2) I was pardoner, 3) PMs were allowed, and 4) I was having a hard time getting certain people to talk. I'm not so sure night phase talk is as useful here - assuming people are sufficiently active during the day that we can come to reasonable conclusions.
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On June 25 2010 09:56 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2010 09:55 YellowInk wrote:On June 25 2010 09:21 Korynne wrote:
Wow this thread died... can we get some people to do analysis? Me and Radfield both did a couple already... but I'll do more later on. On June 25 2010 09:37 Radfield wrote:That's what we get for removing BM and Chez Funny that you enjoy smaller games because there are less people to analyze, and yet you've gone and created a 'small' game with a ton of people For my part I'm awaiting daybreak. I'm not sure how much can be gained by talking at night unless there's a lot of sudden info to be digested. The Korynne instigated discussion was fine, I just figure talking about new suspicions could help mafia choose their kill to manipulate my intentions. I'd rather deny this of them. I had used the night phases of XXVI to go fishing since 1) it was a noob game, 2) I was pardoner, 3) PMs were allowed, and 4) I was having a hard time getting certain people to talk. I'm not so sure night phase talk is as useful here - assuming people are sufficiently active during the day that we can come to reasonable conclusions. I'm used to dying in the night, which means it's important to get my thoughts in while I can
Haha, so I've heard. While that's fair, I've already talked about my opinions of the major implications of BM flipping green vs red during the day and that hasn't changed. Any conclusions I might draw from the evening banter is just as much speculation as the next guy's. I suppose if something really big came out at night it might be worth commenting on, but there's really not much of a reason FOR anything big to happen at night.
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Ugh, this is really slim pickings to work with. 12 posts with any content (some not much) in 16 hours. Well, I guess that gives us a reason to lay on some pressure.
People who have said something of note (currently making no judgement about whether their content makes them look good or baD): Durak, bumatlarge, DarthThienAn, Divinek, BrownBear, DCLXVI, and maybe half credit to Nikon since despite being a oneliner showed some alignment with a kind of thinking.
This means we need to hear from LaXerCannon, Ace, L, more from Nikon, Zyrre, meeple, stormtemplar, and johnnyspazz.
My vote is going to team 7 for resumed inactivity. This posting pattern alone is scummy. When they return to active status, I will definitely still count this as a mark against them. However, as with day 1, I expect that they will at least come forward to defend themselves and we can judge them on their merits.
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Now for what I'm actually thinking about.
I'm still not a big fan of what Team 3 has had to say. I still think there's a good chance this is a read team due to their passive push behind BM's attacks on me. I don't feel that either Bum or LaXer's commentary have been significantly beneficial to the town. I think that even Team 7's limited/defensive posting yesterday gave us better direction and information than Team 3.
Going by voting records, Team 9 looks the worst to me. While some people have carried on the torch of 'Team 9 still looks kinda scummy', consider that Team 1 and Team 2 were both voting against Team 9. Now they're dead. Granted, this is soft evidence, mafia could have done this just to make us look harder at lynching 9.
With L being a single player team, he's almost just as effective if he's mafia and less effective if he's town. It's also going to be harder to pull scum tells out of this 'team' since there is only one player talking. For my part, I want to hear L talking more than the average player to make up for this.
I know he's at work right now, but I wasn't impressed with his (lack of) posting at the end of day 1. Per the schedule he had posted and his posting patterns halfway through day 1, I had expected activity from him at the end of day 1 in the couple hours before the close of the day. Especially so since there was such a balance between 3 teams that anyone could easily sway the results of the vote!
I'd like to note here that in my conversation with Radfield about talking at night, this would be an example of one of the more subtle thigns I chose not to talk about at night. If I had brought up L's partial inactivity at the critical time, the mafia might have chosen to leave L alive specifically because they knew I wanted him hounded for an answer and there are other people who already suspect him for various reasons.
I'm not saying any of this makes L red, it's just another piece of evidence to look at. I want to hear L's explanations.
All of this is soft evidence so I'm not pointing fingers about any of it yet. Lets hear what these teams have to say.
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minor ebwop if the meanings weren't clear + Show Spoiler + Second paragraph should read as:
I'm still not a big fan of what Team 3 has had to say. I still think there's a good chance this is a red team due to the passive push behind BM's attacks on me. I don't feel that either Bum or LaXer's commentary have been significantly beneficial to the town. I think that even Team 7's limited/defensive posting yesterday gave us better direction and information than Team 3.
their=>the LaXer was not directly supporting the passive attack on me, though I am not impressed with LaXer's posts. read => red typo
Hit post without pasting in the final proofread draft, blech
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On June 26 2010 09:45 L wrote:
work stuff
I'm not blaming you for your work situation. It's totally understandable. The problem is that it's indistinguishable from a mafia choosing to be inactive over a particular time window.
On a more important note, you picked up that both teams 1 and 2 pushed against T9, voted against T9, and are now both dead. Radfield + the BM/Chez team both tried to bus 9. That's partially why I found it so incredibly strange that Korynne would flip and try to 'hold' the result at BM/Chez if her partner was instrumental in starting the 9 train. The interesting part is that the 9 train was actually made in majority by people jumping off the 7 train.
That means that it isn't even just a question of T1+2 bussed against 9. You also need to examine their rhetoric against 7. The fact that 7 does not post unless they're being put on the stove is very, very scummy.
Agreed, I hadn't thought of this point, but quite valid. Still very soft evidence, but worth thinking about. Considering Team 7's continued silence, my vote remains. I would encourage others to do the same at this point. Lay on the pressure, make them post or die. There's absolutely no reason they should be inactive as town. Once they talk we can make fair judgments. If they are scum, they may remain quiet in hopes that the L vs Ace argument takes precidence over their inactivity.
On June 26 2010 05:11 bumatlarge wrote:
I hear what you're saying yellow, and expected it ( in a good way). I agree on alot of what you say, but I personally have been a bit more of a town vibe from T9 based on posting. Most of the inactive teams are still too vague to judge by votes.
Inactivity is still a problem and probably will be through the game, but any thoughts on team 4? Im sure you have some opinions of darth after the other game. He seems to state that his posting wold be exactly the same whether hes mafia or town. I know you were in pm contact for a bit and trusted what he had said for the most part. Your word would outclass mine in this regard. I know yo generally feel that game was a bit nooby, but I doubt you let that distrupt your messages to darth.
The thing about strong players is that they have actively worked to eliminate tells. Skilled scum appear to be town in almost everything they do on the surface. Good scum rarely get caught on day 1 or 2 because they simply don't mess up the easy stuff. The way to figure it out is to watch their trends, changes in style from one day to the next, or see if their overall plan or choices just happens to have worked against the town more often than seems fair. This is how I was looking to catch DTA in XXVI and this is what I'm watching for here. It's how I'd look at any vet. Unfortunately mini mafia is short so this is tougher.
This is part of what can make it difficult to fairly read scum on noobs. Noobs mess up the simple stuff. You make a post that includes bad strategy you're going to get nailed on it (looking at you bum). How does one distinguish noob play from scum play? By not permitting people to get away with noob play. Noobs typically work at cleaning up the obvious stuff quickly and get up to the medium level. You always have to nail people for providing bad information.
I don't really have much of use to add to the L vs Ace argument directly. I havn't commented on it at all despite this fire burning from early in day 1. To clear up a few things I see as fact, I believe Caller was modkilled unintentionally - I do not think this was an attempt at strategic modkill. I think that Caller deliberately remained quiet for a reason that cannot be clearly discerned at this moment.
I read the back and forth bickering and I see logic and fallacy in both of their attacks. For both of them, I see errors and truth in both what they say and how they say it. I could be convinced of one being mafia or of both being town. Considering the heat of it, I think it is fair to say that it is unlikely that they are both mafia and it'd be worth betting the game on this.
If we assume that one is mafia, then we should all spend our energy trying to convince each other as to whose arguments are better, come to as much consesus as we can manage, cast our votes, and hope we hit red. If we find town, we're all but comitted to lynching the other. Now, if both are town, we lose the game because both L and Ace saw scum in each other. It should be immediately apparent that this all comes down to whether we believe one of them is mafia. If we're convinced at least one of them is, it may be worth pursuing this path. If the assumption holds true, and if it's 50/50 on who we lynch, it's 50/50 that we come out ahead or end up in lylo to find the last mafia team on day 4. In the end, all these assumptions get us nowhere.
Essentially the last two paragraphs say that you should vote where you believe your vote belongs.
+ Show Spoiler +
You should only vote for one if you believe that they are scum and not because you're going to rationalize to yourself that if you hit town then the other must be scum. Personally, the arguing has not convinced me to vote for either L or Ace.
My vote remains on Team 7 for the reasons I stated above - it's seems much more likely to produce good results than getting involved in L vs Ace. If one of them is scum, let their actions speak to it more strongly after we have another day or two behind us. If team 7 gets active, I read them to be town, and I think L vs Ace is more interesting than putting my vote back on bum, I may do so. I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.
Also, a DT might be investigating and have found one of them to be town and could be fingering tomorrow. Or maybe the DT investigated somewhere else day 1. I would say that these two are excellent targets for investigation if we have a DT among us.
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On June 26 2010 16:08 Nikon wrote:
Yeah, I only defend myself, because all you people do is harp on me - my sister's wedding is coming up this Sunday and things are getting quite hectic around here to be honest. It's interesting to note however, that Laxercannon still hasn't posted jack shit, yet me and Zyrre are getting all the flak for being inactive. In fact, the only thing that Laxercannon posted after his "going to take a shower - state an obivous fact" combo was a poorly constructed attack on myself in response to my post - this I find very scummy.
While I agree with you that bum/lax have done a lot of things that read red, if I weren't already thinking along these lines, your argument would not be convincing.
You need to produce more. If you truly think bum/lax ARE scum (rather than just because you are a mafia team that just wants someone else hung), you need to present more than this. So does Zyrre. So does meeple. The 'harping' is because you have chosen to place yourself at the bottom of the ladder of activity. That has a very simple solution regardless if you are mafia or town - one which your teammates can assist you with.
Once you choose to remove yourself from the bottom of this ladder we can discuss whether votes on your team are no longer justified.
@Zyrre Since you've taken the time to respond to the one post, are you getting noob vibe or scum vibe from Divinek? Either way, please elaborate since Team 9 is somewhere I think a lot of us are interested in looking.
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The problem I have with Team 7 is despite being called out on it, the only thing they've had to say are defenses against supposed attacks against them. They have not come forward to make a progressive post that might help our analysis with another team. They didn't do anything on day 1 until forced to. They still havn't done anything of merit today.
Now we're 2 hours away from deadline and two of their team hasn't even voted. I don't know what's up with that. Only thing I can figure is that they'll be looking to shift the vote where they can right before deadline. Like I said earlier, I see no reason for a town aligned team to be so passive as this when I and others lay them under scrutiny with their votes. Bum, you were asking earlier about how you can tell if a team is being scummy when nothing they're actually saying reads red directly? This would be an excellent example.
Frankly, the inactivity throughout the game has been disappointing. If nothing else, consider how much discussion was taken out of the game with teams 1 and 2. The rest of you guys need to step it up.
(Durak, why havn't you voted yet, where are you??)
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On June 27 2010 09:42 L wrote:The reason why people aren't active is that they're happy with where the vote is falling, which means mafia's cool with me dying. As for this: Show nested quote +On June 27 2010 02:49 Zyrre wrote:L's latest post is the only one from him I've read as somewhat convincing(as in, it looks like Ace's argument was the weaker one). Namely that Ace just copied the voting lists and took the third person on there when there had been switches before that person voted. Ace did write he would ignore that, but it did severely alter the results. Also some incorrect statements from L in there, for instance: You didn't attempt to build an argument around why the Jeep tell was wrong; Ace's post against it was this one: no its not. It's pretty bad theory and only pans in the most simple of newbie games. The "third" vote idea doesn't even make sense because BM doesn't understand what it meant. It had nothing to do with the 3rd player voting - it had everything to do with trying to catch where a scum would vote without drawing attention aka getting on the wagon but without being blamed for tipping it.
Being that scum will vote wherever they think will allow them to escape scrutiny that statement is nonsense. I interpret this as: It doesn't apply to a lot of players and should only, if ever, be used as a slight suspicion together with independent stronger suspicions. If you interpret that in that way, then it isn't a grounds for killing someone. Even if you don't think the idea is 100% foolproof (and none are, in this format), that doesn't mean someone is scum for suggesting it unless there's a scum motive behind it. BM's post had nothing of that nature in it, which looks pretty obvious in hindsight. I've always said the easiest way to figure out what mafia are doing is the following; Look at what mafia's objective is, and think about the different routes to get there. Day 1, for instance, we have a MASSIVE train on T7. T7 talks up just enough to get back under the radar and survives, mostly due to another push against T2. T9 was the secondary target, but they don't get nailed. Both T7 and T9 look terrible after the voting falls into place as multiple swings make them likely beneficiaries of mafia seeded argumentation and vote swings. If T7 and T9 were both town, the MOMENT night ended and radfield died, mafia members would have started their shit train up. 1 team would spark the move, the other could lay low and just take the heat off. Even if the aggressor team died for their move, they would have a non-suspicious backup in subsequent lynch or die days for town. That didn't happen at all. Instead we had a huge push (read Page 32 and onwards) to create a binary between Ace and I. Even Darth tries to play it up. Generally speaking, the two easiest teams to get killed were ignored by mafia; Why? Well, it follows that one or the other are mafia. I still personally think Ace/Darth is the other mafia team, but I wouldn't be surprised if T7 or 9 was laying low and using the Ace/Me binary to get away with little posting. In terms of posting habits, Day 2 has produced only 6 pages of discussion. Day 1 produced almost 4 times that. Many people are VERY satisfied with the direction that town is going and many people don't feel the need to post. That is pretty telling in and of itself.
L, I agree with your general arguments here, but they also apply in reverse with you being the mafia and Ace/DTA being the town. Since I don't see either of you as having a stronger position as outlined in my earlier posting, I'm after the inactives that have a good chance of being mafia. I agree that the idea that the mafia are comfortable with where things stand is disconcerting, but I don't see any way to make this vote go elsewhere with just over an hour left. I think DCLXVI's vote on Team 7 is trash, so if I were going to agree to any kind of train voting, it'd be on Team 9 for reasons similar to my alignment against Team 7.
Consider this a call out - if you're here, post. Just spam "I'm here" if you've got nothing else pressing to say.
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20 minutes and only you and DTA have posted. 40 minutes till end of day. It's going to have to stick to Team 7.
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Whoa whoa, sudden activity and serious interest in going after Team 9? Do we seriously have enough voting power to even consider it? Is it really that much better than Team 7?
L, if you are truly convinced that Ace is mafia, that means DTA is too. Swaying his vote to follow you to what might be mafia... all he has to do is say no if it's a mafia team and it's no dirt on him. If he goes with you and we hit a mafia team, does that clear both you and Ace?
I'll bite. If T9 is hung as mafia I think we have much more useful information than hanging T7 as mafia. They're both about the same as far as I'm concerned at the moment.
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I'm only going to move my vote to T9 if it's going to lynch, though. I don't want to see a vote split kill L. That means DTA has to make the first move if I'm going to shift (since the premise of extra gained information is based on DTA also voting for T9).
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I note that at the ten minute mark neither DTA nor L have gone to voting on team 9. I'll just watch for these two and if they go to 9, I'm there as well. That's voting power 11 which should have it locked down unless we have mass mafia lurking. But that will give us huge amounts of information as well.
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DTA just shifted to team 9. If he shifts back to kill L, we'll hang him for it tomorrow (were L to flip town), obviously, since he used that to get my and L's vote to shift off of team 7. I see no reason for DTA to be insincere in this, it's lose lose for him.
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This game was full of fail. Modkill game wtf???
I look forward to postgame discussion. Do we want to do it in IRC?
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On June 28 2010 11:11 LaXerCannon wrote:
I think for Night 2, you should've flipped a coin to protect team 3 and team 4 since they still had 2 people each.
Given no other information, this was definitely how it should have been done.
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I'll hope into #TMMM on the teamliquid irc
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A bunch of us are in #TMMM chatting right now if the rest of you care to join.
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EPT
