EPTOut of the ones crate listed at the end of his post, I'd say zeks is the most likely to be mafia. With BrownBear being another, less likely, possibility.
TL Mafia XXVI - Page 2
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
Out of the ones crate listed at the end of his post, I'd say zeks is the most likely to be mafia. With BrownBear being another, less likely, possibility. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
So really the only thing pointing towards that right now is the breathing heavily clue and the fact the YI was hit instead of him. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
In some of his latest posts he gave us a list of who should be investigated/analysed: BrownBear Littlechava Misder TheGilaboy Zeks He was also a bit more aggressive towards inactives than DTA was. Several people have already expressed concerns about zeks, and misder could fall under the slightly inactive category(though he made some good analysis that I agree with) | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
I'm mainly throwing this out there as an idea for discussions about the next lynching. I think we can find some better targets for today, I'll be posting my ideas later. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
 I think zeks is a good target along with either hugo or sputnik. Seems like sputnik might be modkilled though, so I'd say zeks and Hugoboss21. zeks for all the previous reasons stated. Hugoboss21 seems like a mafia doing the bare minimum to me. I'll hold off on voting in case anyone convinces me to vote for someone else | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
Here's why: 1. Two clues "...the sound of his killer's heavy breathing." Darth vader reference "he felt a weight push against him" Darth using the force Can't see these clues linked to anybody else 2. Forced to out onihunter He is most likely in touch with a real DT. He can't be sure that player has not told anybody else about his findings, therefore he needs to out oni or he himself will be under investigation. This invalidates his reasoning against MTF's arguments + Show Spoiler + MTF, if I'm mafia and have been in contact with my first DT since day 2, why wouldn't I have killed him by now? If you're gonna say that he had a third townie to accuse me if he died, then that's easily solvable - mafia get 3 KP in the beginning, 2 last night. Just kill the DT and the confirmed townie, makes for a nice clean job and the town loses a DT. 3. Extremely unlikely timing 21 hours after this day started(and any DT checks were delivered) bumatlarge posted some accusations against DTA. Within 3 minutes DTA claims that a DT told him that bumatlarge is mafia. Also changes his first statement that it was a cluecheck to it being a rolecheck after zeks asks what clue it was on (no obvious clue relates to bumatlarge) 4. Timing attack They kill both bodyguards, a vigilante, and YI right as we have double-lynch activated. If we lynch two townies at this stage, after the mafias night-slaughter we will be at 9 townies AND mafia will have 6 voting power(one or two modkills are also likely, making it almost certainly a lost cause). 5. Voting Two confirmed mafia voted him for mayor, and he was the swinging power to get MooCow. All this is just overwhelming, surely others must feel the same way? As for my second target, Misder seems like the best option. + Show Spoiler + Recent surge in activity, pointing fingers in all directions(DTA's proposed target, DCLXVI), and also quickly followed BBs suggestion that he investigate DTA. Odd conclusion, did have SOME hesitation in the middle of his ramble, but quickly discarded it. His last post indicates he blindly believes in DTA. Also followed the mafia votings. But more on that tomorrow, sleep time. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
The outcome if bumatlarge is green: you lynch me and I'm mafia. Mafia are down to 3, with only 3 voting power. Town has 13 - 1 - 2 (assuming perfect hits), 10 vs 3, still pretty good odds, especially if we still have 2 dts and 2 medics and 1-2 veterans in there. We are lynching two people today. Which means Town could be 13-2-2=9. And during that day we would be 9 townie vs 4 mafia with 9 vs 6 voting power. Considering bumatlarge's reaction though, I'd say he's most likely mafia. | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
17 people are still alive. I have a plan to secure liquiville from these mafia scumbags. DarthThienAn or bumatlarge are almost certainly mafia (could be both or none, but far less likely. discussed at the end of this post) If we lynch them both, we are in excellent shape to take our town back There will be 15 people inhabiting our town after today, and only 3 of them will be mafia. With no mayor in play we will have 12 voting power vs 3, great shape as we will most likely have solid leads after analyzing their posting. Compare that to 9 voting power vs 6 if DTA is mafia. It will be game over. In the absolute worst case scenario(which I reaIly can't see happening at this point), we will be 9 vs 4. Still a slight fighting chance. The point of all this: It is extremely dangerous if DTA is mafia, we lose ALOT more on him being alive as mafia then dead as townie I am therefore casting my vote on DarthThienAn AND bumatlarge If you are truly rooting for liquiville, you should do the same | ||
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Zyrre
Sweden291 Posts
oya, and I gave you guys a bonus one through modkill yesterday too, when I could have just had him lynched and saved onihunter for another day and left mafia with 3 KP. Not sure if you are doing this intentionally, but MTF already said why you could not do this and I quoted him. Anyway, I was only pushing it this hard since DTA being mafia would be the only way we could lose this. But since I wasn't getting any reaction, I'll stop. Maybe I'm just overestimating the mafia. | ||
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