TL Mafia XXII
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Radfield
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On April 16 2010 22:09 flamewheel91 wrote: For all those who joined since last night, I've got you signed up, and I think you're all new players to (TL at least) mafia, so welcome to the game!. Wow, 33 people. I'll leave sign-ups open until Saturday, Apr 17 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) (testing the new time/date thing, so it's equivalent to Friday, April 16th at 10:00 p.m. EDT) tonight for any last people who haven't gotten access yet to come and post. After that, I'll be sending out roles sometime tomorrow, and the game will start on Sunday, Apr 18 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00). For those of you that don't live in EDT, can you tell me if the time/date shows up in your local time? I want to make perfectly sure so nobody gets confused by the date/time. Edit: Also, be sure to glance here after signups are done, since then balancing will be done and mafia numbers will be posted. I'm really looking forward to this. I've played mafia before but only in person, never on a forum, and never with quite so many roles. I've been checking out the Mafia XX thread just to get an idea of how it all plays out. Should be fun! Quick question about the roleblocker. Does role blocking mean that the person targeted loses their ability for the night? Also, can you elaborate on which roles are or are not allowed to PM. | ||
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What is the general strat here starting out? I've checked out a couple of the other mafia threads, but with no elections how do we proceed on day one? With zero facts known, and no one trying to garner votes, on what criteria do we base our lynching decisions? Inactivity? Strength of player? Obviously suspicious posting but it's likely difficult to tell Town from Mafia as yet. I'd love to here if any of the veterans have a basic plan already. | ||
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On April 18 2010 06:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Yeah, we should plan for worst case scenarios - but we all know that the game will 95% not be over on day 3. This plays into the timing of double lynch. I think we should wait no longer than Day 4 to do it (meaning we vote for double lynch on Day 3). However this is all dependent on the events of the previous days. If we're in a hole, might want to start it on Day 3; or if we catch some reds via DT or they scumtell. Often i find these time limits for town are a useful thought experiment but rarely if ever do the games actually play out that way Day four seems like a long time to wait to use our first double lynch. We get three of them this game, and if people are talking about town possibly being in trouble by day 4 or 5 we may not get to use them all. That would be unfortunate. I'm not necessarily saying we should use them super early, but we should at least think about it. The danger would be trimming down our numbers even more if we're wrong, but that danger always exists with lynching. If we did vote for the double lynch, and then were unsure of who to take out, the option also exists to avoid a majority vote and not lynch a second person(although i'm not sure that makes sense to waste it like that). Also, is that even allowed? Can we vote for the double lynch and then end up only lynching one person? | ||
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Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm. Did people miss this post? It's confirmed that only the mafia can PM. Either way, I think Zona has cleared it up that forming town circles are impossible since town-aligned players don't have PM abilities. So I'm not exactly sure what you're arguing in the quote above o_O. I think what BC is saying is that at some juncture the DT would reveal himself and his list of greens/blues/reds and create a group of confirmed townies. | ||
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On April 18 2010 06:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Sadly the first day its usable is day 3. :p reading is fun Whoops. Don't I feel smart. Anyways, does it make sense for use to vote for the double lynch at the earliest opportunity? If people think we could be in trouble early, then increasing the KP of the town early seems like a good strat. | ||
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Also, it seems likely that the mafia will be trying to off the strongest and most experienced players amoung us, I think it would be tragic for us to lynch one of our more active members without decent evidence and hence do the job for the mafia. People who's posts are scummy now will likely only get more scummy as time goes on, there's no reason to rush on the first day and mistakenly vote out a solid town member. | ||
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Bill Murray, I think I finally understand what your plan is(maybe not though....), but I don't think it will work. The jist is that when a mafia gets put on the kill list, they will kill their killer in an effort to stay alive. Therefore, that person left alive must be mafia. But this relies on some pretty big assumptions. You're assuming the assassins will randomly use there abilities based on your list, and that the mafia will react based on the fear of the assassins. Can you give me an example where the town would glean valuable information from your plan and not just a bunch of conjecture? Also, we so far have two people claiming green roles and yet hinting that they're probably the miller. I may be new to the game, but is there really a scummier thing to do? Or is it just so obviously scummy that no sane mafia would ever say it? | ||
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On April 18 2010 21:56 d3_crescentia wrote: I haven't spotted these; who are they? Millers don't know that they're Millers. It's beyond idiocy to me why someone would claim it - it's just bad play overall no matter what your alignment is. I'm not saying it means anything, just thought it interesting. On April 18 2010 11:48 Bill Murray wrote: you know how flamewheel thinks about me, so you all know i'm green, and probably the miller. as it is all i have is my vote, and i'm probably going to be putting it on zona. ive got a strong gut feeling on him being scum. i'd suggest you all to do the same, but lets not rush into anything stupid. On April 18 2010 16:10 Jugan wrote: No wonder. He always puts me in miller house =/ | ||
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For reference, here is iNfuNdiBuLuM list of inactives(both TheLardyGooser and nbtnbt5 have recently posted, both in support of Bill Murray's wild assassin plan) Roffles nbtnbt5 krndandaman Fishball Elemenope tree.hugger rebirth of legend (but he posted a lot pregame too) RaGe Jadefist TheLardyGooser Caller (wtf mate) love1another jpak | ||
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For instance, whats with all the people voting in the voting thread, and not posting a single thing about it in this thread. If you're gonna vote, at least give us a reason why. We currently have 14 votes in and very few explanations. We can't just have random people throwing votes around on a whim. We will never reach a majority vote that way. We need in-thread discussion, and we need to know peoples reasons for the way they vote. I still think the plan should be to vote off the inactives. If people have a strong case for a player then fine, post it and convince us. But so far this is mostly blatant conjecture, as it would have to be since it's Day 1. I'm far more in favor of keeping around a scummy poster then a complete non-poster. It makes the game more fun, and chances are a scummy poster will eventually slip-up. Also, we can't hurt ourselves by voting off someone inactive, we certainly can hurt ourselves by voting off a potentially strong, active player. There is a Day 1 risk-reward analysis here. By voting off an inactive player we can only win, by voting off someone active we can win or lose. Granted we could win big by voting off someone active and mafia, but lets face it, no one has any facts right now so that seems like a long shot. | ||
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On April 19 2010 09:24 Bill Murray wrote: I've also found Caller's play to be rather scummy. If we can't lynch Zona, I'm for lynching Caller. As far as I'm concerned this is a terrible way to go about this. Don't just say "Caller's scummy". Give us some reasons, lay down some facts. As far as I can tell, both Caller and Zona have seemed legit enough for me, at least for Day 1. Why are you so quick to vote for these players when they could be an asset in the future, and when it makes much more sense to vote out some of the least active players. Lets not do the mafia's job for them. | ||
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Therefore, if we want to be able to lynch, we need to settle on someone we can agree on. We all agree that inactive players are bad, so lets get a list and pick some names out. One thing worth noting though, we don't want to waste a lynch on someone who's going to get modkilled anyways. So lets focus on the people who are inactive in the thread, and yet still throw down a vote. As far as I can tell, these folks still have not posted, or at least haven't posted much. However, none of them have voted either. nbtnbt5 krndandaman Elemenope rebirth of legend RaGe Jadefist jpak | ||
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On April 19 2010 13:53 Incognito wrote: Ok. Time for some stuff. First of all, theres a lot of people moaning that we should just lynch an inactive because we don't have enough information. These people should step it up. There is actually quite a bit of information out here to analyze. So instead of waiting for one of us to come up and hand you the information on a plate, please try to go through and look through posts organized by user. First off, innocents. A few people have caught my attention as very likely innocents. These people are: Zona BC d3_crescentia Caller All the people on this list have been posting rationally. (Ace would probably disagree with me on this about Caller, but from what I remember from Caller's previous games, he didn't post like this as mafia). Time to pull out the accusation gun. Osmoses: This is his first real post. He plays the I'm a newbie card, and proceeds to ask a question that is already being discussed. No contribution here. He also makes preemptive excuses for his posting, emphasizing that he is a newbie, but...you get the picture. Check out TL Mafia V for an example of Tricode pulling the same stunt. From experience, new pro-town players would not try to emphasize their newbiness, as it adds a burden for the town. On the other hand, new mafia players tend to use this to excuse their useless behavior. Panic usually sets in and they try to play the im confused card. More confusion. How ironic. Anyway...Ok...So its tiring trying to find out who is who...but you haven't said anything yet about what you HAVE found out. Oh you also say there's little information to go on? Yeah I'm sure its very tiring to look for information that's not there...in which case you might as well just have given up. Oops! Well, if you're so tired trying to information, surely you must have found at least something. Spit it out. We want to hear it. Anyway, thats the one person who stuck out in my mind. Everyone should be looking for information instead of lying around and complaining how there is no information. Some information is there. And some of it we have to bring out so we get more information. From experience, mafia games are usually more stagnant when theres no pms. You can't call people out as effectively as you can in pmland, partially because of spam, and partially because people don't feel inclined to respond when theres more than one accusation out there. So for now, I'm going to switch strategies and only try to focus on one suspect at a time. I expect responses. OK, then lets focus on one person at a time. First off, I don't think his statements about the double lynch are particularly scummy. We were discussing them at the time, and it DOES make some sense in a way to save them for when we have better information; better chance of netting two bad guys. Mind you, i'm against the idea and think we should use our first one at the earliest opportunity. However, what did jump out at me ealier was this post: On April 18 2010 17:18 Osmoses wrote: I'm suspicious of Zona, his attack on BC seems forced somehow, too condescending, but also too fervent for both to be scum. Why is everyone, that is to say BM, focusing on the assasins anyway? It seems to me they are very unlikely to win in the end, as they will probably be lynched or killed by other assassins well before the end of the game. Here's my supergenius plan: lynch the least active player, it's the quiet ones you gotta watch! To my mind, Zona seemed quite legit at that point, and more importantly this was a bandwaggon vote, given that Bill Murray had stated he was voting Zona just prior. It seemed suspicious then so i noted it down. | ||
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On April 19 2010 19:19 Bill Murray wrote: did someone really just read into my voting? you should go read TL Mafia XX LOL No, I'm reading into Osmosis' bandwaggoning of your voting | ||
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On April 19 2010 19:34 Bill Murray wrote: The more I think about it, I do get townie vibes from you because of you putting FoS onto Osmoses. Being a little more experienced than you, and take this with a grain of salt because I am not the best town player as my play always appears scummy when im green, you shouldn't read into day 1 votes because it is the random voting stage of the game. analyze the wagons after someone is dead, though, as you can see patterns emerge. I've actually found a couple people on mafiascum that way. I am actually starting to get suspicious of you Bill Murray. Not so much from your posting, but more from what seems to be going on around you. First Osmosis bandwaggons a vote from you on a player who I had thought seemed quite legit. Second, two relatively inactive folks both come out in favour of your assassin plan, despite the fact that no one else can even understand your plan at first, let alone thinks it's a good idea. On April 19 2010 03:54 nbtnbt5 wrote: What do we have to lose to try the plan out? It's not like we really having anything to base our lynchings on atm, and it seems like a reliable method of making the mafia take action. On April 19 2010 02:17 TheLardyGooser wrote: I still think BMs plan makes the most sense if I understand it right. I feel like it would put the mafia at a much bigger disadvantage but I am still new at this? A few other things which HAVE jumped out at me about your posting. You keep mentioning things like: being the miller, seeming scummy when green, always being green, being an obvious townie, etc. In addition, you seem to be encouraging people not to take your voting seriously. It seems very possible to me that after having been green for a few games in a row, you can simply use that excuse once you finally hit a red role. I'm not trying to be harsh here, and I appreciate the advice you offered about day one votes, but all these little things seem to be adding up for me. What do other people think? | ||
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Lets keep the discussion rolling, we have 3 or 4 names we're considering, lets keep whittling it down. It would be nice to have a large consensus here, and not just scrape by with 20 votes. | ||
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On April 20 2010 04:36 CynanMachae wrote: Oh I also forgot to point out that I'm hesitating putting my vote on RoL right now because 3 of those voting for him are among the players I find likely red (IntoTheWow, Rage and TheLardyLooser) Then jump on the jpak bandwagon! We got plenty of room! At least 20 seats! Seriously Pluses: He's almost as inactive as RoL; Already cast a vote so he's out of modkill danger (we won't waste our lynch) Minuses: | ||
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On April 20 2010 04:47 Bill Murray wrote: I am completely against this style of play. They person may be an idiot, a noob, and a terrible player, but as far as i'm concerned it is scummy to lynch someone until we have proof that they're capable of being red playing the way they are. Furthermore, if jpak is red, do we have to worry about him? the person we need to be lynching is the godfather, honestly. Fair enough. But if he's red he adds to the KP of the mafia. So far he's doing the bare minimum to stick around. One or two short posts in the forum, one vote for Jugan. | ||
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We really need a change of attitude here imo. I propose a town-wide ban (with lynching if not lived by) on accusations/analysis of previous posts until Day 2, and a lynch of the currently least active, most voted person RebirthOfLegend Because let's face it, we're not going to be able to have enough of us agree on an already suspicious person to be able to lynch him on day 1, and we're only helping mafia decide which townies to snipe atm. This would help us focus on getting a decent plan together for the rest of the game. As far as I can tell, this post helps to focus the town down a road towards a lynch. Voting towards the "least active, most voted person" seems like a sound plan to get a lynch done. Perhaps you folks voting for Rage could elaborate a little more. I realize Caller's already posted a reason, but were that many people suddenly convinced? Caller's argument seemed a bit thin to me. | ||
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I have no idea how to rerail this thread.... Also, if I pay 100$ can I get you to point out twice that you're playing like an ass? | ||
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On April 20 2010 10:46 Incognito wrote: [/spoiler]Um actually yeah, if I read that correctly, I think it is pretty anti-town and warranting suspicion. Wanting to exclude all the pre-day 2 information is hugely ridiculous. If you don't think there's anything here to analyze, then something is wrong with you. This seems like an invitation to cover up information that the mafia doesn't want to be found. I don't think he was trying to exclude the day 1 info, just pospone making accusations based on it until day 2. A problem for me right now, is that most of the accusations going around are based on " x played like this before, so I think he's suspicious because now he's playing like this". These arguments might be great, but for all the new players they're a bit worthless. Yes I could go read the other games(of which I have a bit) to try and analyze posting habits, but obviously that's a huge time investment. I'm not 100% sure what I should be posting right now. We have a bunch of posts, some which seem fishy and some not, but I simply don't have enough of a background with either the players or the game to know who really stands out. I have a list of fishy seeming players, but I doubt my analysis is particularly bang on at this point. I'm sure this is true for most of the new players in the game. The fact is, If you're town and you're a veteren, you need to really be pitching in at this point(thanks incognito) because as far as I can tell, this is the most difficult time of the game to make decisions. Caller, instead of throwing up your hands in frustration, patiently explain why we gain little or no information from lynching jpak, and explain what the better move was. Ace you may be bored and wishing for a more insightful game, but it seems like you gave up less than halfway into day 1. If you were expecting award-winning posts from a game with a large percentage of newbies, you're gonna have to step up yourself. You're only making things worse by spamming and derailing. I realize that there's no real substance in my post as far as analysis goes, so feel free to ignore my post, and instead respond with some award-winning analysis. Wow, the automated archive is amazing | ||
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On April 21 2010 05:37 Falcynn wrote: Wait...so Caller's argument against Rage is that Rage is way too calm in his defending of himself and as a result must be mafia? I realize I'm a total noob and am probably being premature with this but I'm giving a FoS (am I using this term right? just looked it up on that mafiascum wiki) to Caller, because it seems like he's purposely trying to sow discord with these "rules" he's using to spot mafia. Then again, as stated, he is a way more experienced player than me, but I still don't see the logic in the way he makes some of his accusations. Main reason I don't think Callers mafia is because of the jpak vote. As far as the mafia were concerned, jpak was pro-town, possibly a blue. They had every reason to jump on the bandwagon and take him out. We were down one vote, Caller was around, and certainly could have put us to the limit. Not only did he not, but he was adamantly against the vote, and seemingly disappointed that Jugan switched last minute to put it through. Also, he's stirring shit up, and as far as im concerned, that's good at this point. So who did vote for jpak? Presumably the mafia would be more than happy to bandwagon on to jpak in an effort to lynch a townie. I would guess a fair percentage of the mafia are in this list. BloodyC0bbler Fishball Radfield (*gasp* voter number three!) KF91 CynanMachae d3_crescentia Osmoses [NyC]HoBbes Abenson RebirthOfLeGend meeple Zona incognito scamp madnessman Foolishness Infuldubulm Dartheinan Lardy Gooser Jugan The problem is that I feel there was also a good pro-town reason to vote out jpak. But at least this gives a list of more suspect people. Additional Bandwagonners: Dartheinian and Lardygooser both hopped on and off the RoL train Meeple, Infuldubulm, and scamp all jumped on and off the Rage wagon Also, special consideration has to go to Jadefist for voting Jpak after the deadline Very Inactive people: nbtnbt5, Jadefist, Fulgrim, love1another, motbob | ||
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On April 20 2010 10:25 ZBot wrote: AcrossFiveJulys + Show Spoiler + On April 16 2010 15:24 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Sign me up yo On April 18 2010 08:06 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: DTs should of course show discretion on when they RC in order to post their list, but they have to do it at some point, otherwise what good are they? One person's non-RC'd opinion probably won't be able to sway the town to lynch mafia/not lynch townies, especially when there are no clues. On April 18 2010 12:31 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I lost confidence in your plan and stopped reading it when I came across the bolded line. Here is the description of the role of the assasin: The Assassin is this game's third party candidate! Except for, there may be more than one? To complete his/her win objective, the Assassin is to find and kill all the other Assassins in the game. Assassins will be told in their role PMs how many Assassins there are in the game, but nobody beyond them will know. Assassins show up as Assassins to role checks. To clarify the Assassin's win objectives: The Assassin wins alone, and must complete his mission before the war between the town and the mafia ends. The Assassin counts toward the number of town-aligned people for counting town vs. mafia purposes. So, the assassin does not win if all the mafia die. I don't completely understand your plan, and it might still be good, but it seems you came up with it off of an incorrect assumption so I'm going to need an explanation for why you thought that and if you still think your plan is valid. On April 19 2010 17:21 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I still have my suspicions about BM, but I'm willing to change my vote to lynch an inactive due to good reasons brought up numerous times in the last few pages. On April 20 2010 10:19 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: FFFFFUUUUU bad luck with krndandaman... and... I guess it's neutral that an assassin was killed, since they have no incentive to kill mafia and might end up killing townies in finding assassins? I'm really not sure how that's going to affect things. I've been reading through AcrossFiveJulys posting history, and to me it seems a bit suspect. It's nothing specific in particular, but does anyone else get the same vibe? | ||
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medics! protect incognito at all costs. As far as I can tell, he's our best shot at really outing some mafia. | ||
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gl all | ||
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